星载微波散射计资料反演海面风场进展研究

对星载微波散射计资料反演海面风场的国内外研究进展作一评述。首先介绍星载微波散射计反演海面风场的基本原理;然后对利用地球物理模型函数的反演方法中地球物理模型函数的建立与求解算法及模糊去除过程做了全面评述;最后对神经网络和遗传算法等不利用地球物理模型函数风场反演方法的应用作了相应说明。目前利用模型函数反演方法日趋成熟,但仍然有进一步改进的可能,尤其对于降水、台风等恶劣天气情况;而神经网络和遗传算法为以后进行风场反演改进亦提供了一种可行途径。     

逐时云迹风资料同化对暴雨预报的模拟试验

文中基于不同的云迹风同化方案,用GRAPES模式对2005年7月11—12日长江中下游一次暴雨强降水过程进行了云迹风资料同化试验及数值模拟,通过对比分析不同方案所得的分析场及预报场的差异,研究逐时云迹风资料三维变分同化对分析场及暴雨预报的影响。首先,根据连续性原理及双通道各层次云迹风资料的误差分析,分3个步骤对7月11日00：00—12：00 UTC共12个时次的双通道云迹风资料进行了初步的质量控制;然后,把经过质量控制的云迹风资料放入基于GRAPES 3D VAR三维变分同化方案开发的逐小时循环同化系统中进行同化,将得出的分析场与单一时次未经质量控制的云迹风资料同化得出的分析场进行对比,探讨了逐时云迹风资料同化对数值预报分析场的影响;最后,把同化后的分析场作为初始场,用 GRAPES模式对 2005年7月11—12日长江流域暴雨过程做24 h降水预报试验,分析两个同化方案所模拟得到的预报场的差异。结果表明,经资料的筛选、同经纬度单点通道的选择及资料的稀疏化3个步骤控制后,各层次云迹风资料的误差有明显减小;加入经质量控制的逐时云迹风资料其三维变分同化可以提高分析场中风压场及水汽场的质量;而且在暴雨预报试验中可以相对更准确地预报暴雨落区及雨强。     

华东地区地面和高空风场的多模式集成精细化预报研究

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)、中国国家气象中心业务运行的中尺度数值预报系统(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System Meso, GRAPES-Meso)、美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP)的全球预报系统(Global Forecast System, GFS)、GRAPES全球预报系统(GRAPES-GFS)4个模式风场预报资料,利用双线性、反距离加权、三次样条、克里格等插值方法对华东及周边地区(110°～130°E,20°～40°N)2020年1—4月逐日地面和高空风0～72 h集合预报资料进行降尺度处理,得到满足机场及终端区气象保障的精细化风场预报。此外,还对精细化风场预报做多模式集成。结果表明,对于风场的精细化格点预报,反距离加权插值方法误差最小,为最优水平插值方法。基于扩展复卡尔曼滤波的多模式集成...     

QuikSCAT卫星散射计矢量风检验及南海月平均风场特征分析

采用中国科学院南海海洋研究所2008年建设的,西沙海洋观测研究站上的自动气象站实测数据,对亚太数据研究中心提供的近实时QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料(2008年4月6日—12月31日)进行了检验和统计特征分析,得出:这两者风速的相关系数为0.86,平均偏差为-1.50 m/s,均方根误差为1.71 m/s,表明QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料在南海具有很高的适用性。在此基础上,利用QuikSCAT卫星遥感的月平均风场资料分析了南海月平均风场特征。结果表明:(1)南海季风10月到次年3月盛行东北风,6—8月盛行西南风,4、5、9月为季风转换季节;(2)存在两个平均风速大值中心,一个位于南海南部(10°N,108°E)附近,另一个位于台湾海峡附近,其位置和强度会随着季节变化而变动。     

垂直风切变对螺旋波不稳定的影响

通过建立一系列局地准二维直角坐标系,用以研究垂直风切变对热带气旋中螺旋波不稳定的影响,并计算了螺旋波不稳定增长率在螺旋线上的分布,得到了以下结论:不稳定增长率开始随热带气旋半径增大而增大,在最大风速圈处达最大;然后随半径减小,以后再随半径增大,出现一个局地极值,再以后又减小,即在螺旋线上有两个极值中心;这与实际热带气旋的情况相一致。不稳定螺旋波的增长率与基流的垂直切变和层结参数密切有关,基流垂直切变越大,层结参数越小,则增长率越大;也即Richardson数越小,则不稳定增长率越大。     

The impact of inhomogenous background errors on a global wave data assimilation system

One of the main limitations in current wave data assimilation systems is the lack of an accurate representation of the structure of the background errors. In this work, models for the observational error variance, background error variance and background error correlations are developed based on the results of previous studies. These are tested in a global wave data assimilation system and the resulting wave forecasts are verified against independent observations from buoys. Forecasts of significant wave height show substantial improvement over the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's current operational wave forecasting system. However, forecasts of peak period are not similarly improved. The regional impacts of the new assimilation scheme are found to vary on a seasonal basis. Overall, it is shown that the inclusion of a latitudinally dependent background error, and improved specification of the background and observational error variances can reduce the root-mean-square error of 24-hour forecast Significant Wave Height by almost 10%.     

散射计和下投式探空仪资料对台风模拟的影响

为了评估同化QuikSCAT海平面气压场资料和Dropsonde资料对台风"Bilis"和"Kat-rina"模拟的影响,通过WRF-3DVAR变分同化系统将QuikSCAT海平面气压场资料和Dropsonde资料同化到WRF模式中,并以未同化任何资料和同化了QuikSCAT海平面气压场以及同化了Drop-sonde资料的数据为初始场,应用WRF模式进行模拟预报,并对得到的初始分析场和模拟预报得到的结果与台风实况报文进行了对比,得到的结论是:对台风初始时刻海平面气压场分布、初始台风中心定位、台风初始暖心结构的改善、台风路径、海平面最低气压场、海面最大风速和雷达回波的模拟方面,同化QuikSCAT海平面气压场的效果比同化Dropsonde资料明显,其中二者对海平面最低气压场的改进效果比海面最大风速的要好。但是两种资料的同化对初始相对湿度和台风强度细节变化方面都没有产生明显改善作用。同化QuikSCAT海平面气压场试验虽然仅仅同化了单层海平面气压场,但是在三维变分同化系统的动力约束作用下,也可以影响到中高层的各个要素场。     

Three-dimensional variational data assimilation of WindSat ocean surface winds for the genesis and forecasting of tropical storm Henri

With available high-resolution ocean surface wind vectors retrieved from the U.S. Naval Research Laboratorys WindSat on Coriolis, the impact of these data on genesis and forecasting of tropical storm Henri is examined using the non-hydrostatic, fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) of Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research plus its newly released three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system. It is shown that the assimilation of the WindSat-retrieved ocean surface wind vectors in the 3DVAR system improves the model initialization fields by introducing a stronger vortex in the lower troposphere. As a result, the model reproduces the storm formation and track reasonably close to the observations. Compared to the experiment without the WindSat surface winds, the WindSat assimilation reduced an error between the model simulated track and observations of more than 80 km and also improved the storm intensity by nearly 2 hPa. It suggests that these data could provide early detection and prediction of tropical storms or hurricanes.     

A multi-model ensemble approach for assessment of climate change impact on surface winds in France

Statistical downscaling of 14 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) is presented to assess potential changes of the 10 m wind speeds in France. First, a statistical downscaling method is introduced to estimate daily mean 10 m wind speed at specific sites using general circulation model output. Daily 850 hPa wind field has been selected as the large scale circulation predictor. The method is based on a classification of the daily wind fields into a few synoptic weather types and multiple linear regressions. Years are divided into an extended winter season from October to March and an extended summer season from April to September, and the procedure is conducted separately for each season. ERA40 reanalysis and observed station data have been used to build and validate the downscaling algorithm over France for the period 1974–2002. The method is then applied to 14 AOGCMs of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset. Three time periods are focused on: a historical period (1971–2000) from the climate of the twentieth century experiment and two climate projection periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from the IPCC SRES A1B experiment. Evolution of the 10 m wind speed in France and associated uncertainties are discussed. Significant changes are depicted, in particular a decrease of the wind speed in the Mediterranean area. Sources of those changes are investigated by quantifying the effects of changes in the weather type occurrences, and modifications of the distribution of the days within the weather types.     

近地面风场变化对太湖蓝藻暴发影响的数值研究

蓝藻水华是在特定的气象和水文条件下,已成为优势种群的蓝藻群体在水体中发生水平、垂直位置的改变而形成.选取2007年6月24日和9月8日发生的2次蓝藻暴发个例,利用WRFV2模式进行较高分辨率数值模拟,研究了在蓝藻成为优势群体之后的上浮积聚阶段近地面风向风速对蓝藻水华面积变化和活动范围的影响.通过数值模拟结果与EOS/MODIS卫星遥感监测到的蓝藻信息的对比分析发现,蓝藻的活动对湖区近地面风场变化的反应相当迅速,蓝藻大面积暴发过程往往对应着有利的风向风速变化:如风速小、系统性东北风、辐散环流等.研究表明通过对太湖地区各气象要素的高分辨率数值模拟,可以预测蓝藻的暴发和演变情况,为太湖蓝藻暴发的预测预警提供气象依据.     

A comparison of satellite winds and surface buoy winds in the northeast Pacific: Research note

Abstract

Cloud‐motion winds measured from organized and disorganized cumulus cloud fields are compared with winds measured at collocated buoys in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Findings suggest that an automated tracking algorithm using GOES satellite imagery can measure cloud‐level winds at these latitudes. Comparisons with buoy wind measurements show that the influence of boundary‐layer stability should be included in estimates of surface winds from cloud‐motion data.     

ECMWF全风速场集合预报结果的偏差订正与预报不一致性分析

采用卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正法和滑动自适应权重法,对2012年夏季ECMWF 10 m全风速场集合预报结果进行偏差订正,对订正前后的预报结果进行评估,并通过Jumpiness指数对预报结果订正前后的预报不一致性特征进行分析。结果表明,卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正法能有效降低集合预报的均方根误差,且当起报时刻为00时对中低纬度地区的订正效果更显著,当起报时刻为12时对中高纬度地区的订正效果更明显;卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正法能有效改善Talagrand的U型或L型分布;由均方根误差分析结果知道,ECMWF 10 m全风速场集合预报本身存在较大的预报不一致性,经过卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正后,集合预报的预报不一致性明显降低,偏差订正可有效改善集合预报的预报不一致性,且随着预报时效的延长,卡尔曼滤波误差法对预报不一致性的改善效果更加明显;从预报不一致性的发生次数特征来看,单点跳跃出现的次数最多,异号三点跳跃的次数最少;经过卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正后,单点跳跃、异号两点跳跃、异号三点跳跃次数都有所下降。     

Evaluation of the impact of observations on blended sea surface winds in a two-dimensional variational scheme using degrees of freedom

This paper presents an evaluation of the observational impacts on blended sea surface winds from a two-dimensional variational data assimilation (2D-Var) scheme. We begin by briefly introducing the analysis sensitivity with respect to observations in variational data assimilation systems and its relationship with the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS), and then the DFS concept is applied to the 2D-Var sea surface wind blending scheme. Two methods, a priori and a posteriori, are used to estimate the DFS of the zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of winds in the 2D-Var blending scheme. The a posteriori method can obtain almost the same results as the a priori method. Because only by-products of the blending scheme are used for the a posteriori method, the computation time is reduced significantly. The magnitude of the DFS is critically related to the observational and background error statistics. Changing the observational and background error variances can affect the DFS value. Because the observation error variances are assumed to be uniform, the observational influence at each observational location is related to the background error variance, and the observations located at the place where there are larger background error variances have larger influences. The average observational influence of u and v with respect to the analysis is about 40%, implying that the background influence with respect to the analysis is about 60%.     

QuikSCAT卫星遥感与MM5模拟海表面风场的综合分析

利用2000—2009年中国近海海域(105~135°E,0°~45°N)Quik SCAT卫星遥感风场资料和2007年MM5模拟风速结果,运用对比验证、经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal functions,EOF)和奇异值分解(singular value decomposition,SVD)方法,分析了Quik SCAT卫星遥感风场资料和MM5数值模拟风速结果的特征。结果表明:两者风速的空间分布形态相似,且风速变化密切相关;QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场的空间分布形态更加接近实测结果,而模拟风速结果的量值更加接近实测结果。采用PS(Pattern-Scaling)方法分别提取了Quik SCAT卫星遥感风场的空间分布形态和模拟结果的量值,得到的风速空间分布形态与Quik SCAT卫星遥感风场一致,且风速量值与模拟风速结果相同。通过初步检验发现,PS方法改善了卫星遥感风速在中国近海海域风速偏大的问题。     

The effect of rainfall on the wind in the surface layer

Raindrops falling into a wind-shear zone do not adjust their horizontal speeds immediately to the new wind. Thus, stresses develop which accelerate the air. The effect of raindrops falling into a layer with a logarithmic wind profile is investigated numerically. We find the adjustment of the wind to this situation to be quite small and only barely detectable, even in heavy rain conditions. The effect on the stress distribution is greater. Stress variations of 10–20 % and greater in the lowest 10 m are possible under certain conditions.     

大小兴安岭林区风场动力降尺度对比研究

对2017年春季黑龙江省大、小兴安岭林区的6个代表站点10 m风场进行降尺度分析,并结合观测数据对比分析了WRF模式和CALMET降尺度模式的10 m风速、风向预报结果。结果表明：两模式逐小时风速预报与观测的相关系数为0.5-0.7,且随着风速的增加,模式的预报准确率逐渐提高,夜间的风速预报偏差较大,进入白天后,偏差明显减小。WRF模式对风速变化趋势的预报效果优于CALMET模式,与观测的风速相关性更高,而CALMET模式对较大风速的预报效果优于WRF模式。在风向预报方面,WRF和CALMET的风向模拟与观测风向均有较好的一致性,模式预报准确率较高的两个风向也刚好对应各站的盛行风向。同时,本文用回归方法对日平均风速进行订正发现,订正后各站的日平均风速预报准确率平均提高了50%,具有较好的业务应用价值。     

AMSU-A全空辐射率资料同化对台风“天鸽”的预报影响研究

利用美国NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)发展的GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)同化系统和GSM(Global Spectral Model)全球频谱预报模式作为循环同化系统,选用2017年第13号台风为研究个例,采用全空和晴空两种同化方案对AMSU-A(The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A)辐射率观测开展同化对比试验,并对台风"天鸽"个例进行5 d预报,研究AMSU-A全空辐射率同化对台风天鸽发展过程预报的影响。结果表明,全空同化方案相比晴空同化方案预报的台风路径、台风中心气压以及台风最大风速预报误差更小;全空同化方案对台风"天鸽"生命周期的模拟更加准确,更接近中国气象局发布的台风天鸽最佳路径的最低气压,而晴空同化方案预报的台风发展较弱,无法预报出成熟期的台风强度;全空同化方案能够增加低层通道海上厚云覆盖区域辐射率资料同化量,增幅占AMSUA同化观测总量10%,从而改进海洋区域天气系统的热力场结构。