带随机初值和随机强迫的简单模式的集合预报试验

本文用简单的准地转正压涡度方程谱模式作为本文模式的动力框架,考虑到作为模式初始场的气象资料中存在着大量的随机误差,以及模式中物理过程的不完善(例如,没有考虑大气与下垫面的相互作用、辐射等),采用在模式中加入随机强迫项和使用随机初值的蒙特卡洛方法,建立了一个统计动力相结合的模式,并用此模式做了1983年1月500hPa月平均高度场的数值预报试验。试验结果表明:同时考虑随机强迫和随机初值的模式预报效果优于纯动力模式、随机初值模式和随机强迫模式的预报效果。     

爆发性气旋发展中斜压强迫与潜热释放作用的数值试验

本文利用一个六层原始方程模式对五例爆发性气旋的发展进行了数值试验,试验结果表明：斜压强迫是气旋爆发性发展的基本因子,而潜热释放的重要性则有较大差异。潜热释放的作用主要集中在两个方面：一是对低层的直接增暖,加强了上升运动;二是对局地斜压性的加强,促进了锋面、槽脊系统的发展,而这两者均有利于气旋的发展。     

EXPERIMENTS ON ASSIMILATION OF INITIAL VALUES IN NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF A WARM-SECTOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA

In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-termforecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China, four experiments i.e. a control, an assimilation ofconventional sounding and surface data, testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation ofradar-derived radial wind, are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall thatoccurred over South China, by using the GRAPES_MESO model. The results show that (1) assimilatingconventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the areaand order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast, and (3)the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the areaand order of magnitude. These results serve as significant technical reference for the study on short-termforecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the future.     

THE SENSITIVITY INFLUENCE OF NUMERICAL MODEL INITIAL VALUES ON FOUR-DIMENSIONAL ASSIMILATION-STUDY BASED ON LORENZ SYSTEM*

Numerical experiments of adjoint variational assimilation have been performed using the known Lorenz system.With the increase of sensitivity of model's initial values,it is more and more difficult to use the adjoint method to get the initial values which are consistent with the dynamics of the forecast model.Under some circumstances the algorithm completely fails.This shows that four-dimensional assimilation is related to the limit of predictability.On the other hand.with the increase of model equation's error,the result of variational assimilation may become worse and worse so that the prediction has no meaning.But if the model parameters are corrected when variational assimilation is made,the forecast results can be greatly improved based on Lorenz model.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF THE INFLUENCES OF HEAT AND WIND STRESS ON THE EQUATORIAL OCEAN CIRCULATION

A time-dependent linear model on the equatorial beta plane is developed in this paper.Its verticalstructure consists of two active layers with equal density and temperature above the thermocline and aquasi-stationary layer with constant density below the thermocline.The results of nurnericat experiments show that the direct influence of heat on the equatorial ocean ismuch smaller than that of wind stress.Nevertheless,through the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction,the change of wind stress resulting from the thermal forcing may set a determinant effect on the equilibriumand anomalous development of the ocean-almosphere circulation.     

CERES-玉米模拟模式的数值试验及应用

利用美国的CERES玉米模拟模式对河南省伊川县1992、1993年共6期玉米分期播种资料进行了模拟,对生育期和籽粒产量的模拟效果较好。经对播种密度、播种日期、播种深度与籽粒产量关系的数值试验,提出高产密度标准为8.25(高肥水田块可达9.75)株·m^-2,最佳播期为5月31日～6月5日和最适播种深度为6cm左右。经对河南省南阳市大田玉米生长发育的模拟验证,平均相对误差率为5.6%,并可用理论计算的逐日太阳辐射代替实测太阳辐射进行生长模拟。所以CERES玉米模拟模式作某些参数调整后可应用于业务工作     

对流边界层中公路线源扩散的Monte-Carlo法模拟

开发了一个Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ大气扩散模式且引入了一种检验随机数质量的填充二维点格的方法。通过与水槽试验资料对比,说明该模式具有较好的模拟效果。用该模式模拟公路线源的大气扩散,结果表明,高架路和一般公路的污染在地面浓度上的差异较大,而在垂直方向上差异较小。高架路引起的地面浓度值和扩散范围都较一般公路的大。垂直方向上尤其是２０米以上二者基本没有差异,浓度较大值都在５０～１００米以下。结合箱模式的思     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF THE INFLUENCES OF HEAT AND WIND STRESS ON THE EQUATORIAL OCEAN CIRCULATION*

A time-dependent linear model on the equatorial beta plane is developed in this paper.Its vertical structure consists of two active layers with equal density and temperature above the thermocline and a quasi-stationary layer with constant density below the thermocline.The results of nurnericat experiments show that the direct influence of heat on the equatorial ocean is much smaller than that of wind stress.Nevertheless,through the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction,the change of wind stress resulting from the thermal forcing may set a determinant effect on the equilibrium and anomalous development of the ocean-almosphere circulation.     

初始扰动对冰雹云发展影响的数值研究

在水平均一的初始场中触发对流的发生可采用热力扰动和强迫抬升两种方法,但扰动的方式、强度和范围的不同对模拟的对流云的发展有着重要的影响。本文利用一次冰雹云发展前期的实测探空资料,对热力扰动的强度、范围进行了数值试验,结果表明：在同样的层结条件下,随着扰动强度、厚度的增加,所模拟的冰雹云的强度也增加,且以湿热泡扰动触发的冰雹云最强,其次是湿泡,而热泡扰动最弱。但无论以何种方式启动,只要模拟的冰雹云的云顶高度相当,云体的宏微观特征差异就不大。     

在细网格模式中引入总体边界层参数化方案的数值试验

本文把MM4模式中的总体边界层参数化方案引入到十一层细同治原始方程数值模式中去，用它与仅考虑简单边界层国擦的细网格模式对一典型江淮气旋天气过程分别作了24小时对比模拟试验；初步试验结果表明：边界层总体参数化方案的引入是可行的，对模式的预报效果在某些方面有显著改进．     

逐次最优插值方案及其试验

本文介绍了“空军中尺度数值预报业务系统”前期处理模块中采用的逐次最优插值方案及相关处理技术，通过个例和一个月统计结果分析表明：本方案的插值效果较好，能够满足日常业务预报和数值式对资料分析精度的要求。     

SIMULATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND RADIATIVE FORCING OF ORGANIC CARBON AEROSOLS IN CHINA

The International Centre for Theoretical Physics(ICTP,Italy) Regional Climate Model version 3.0(RegCM3) is used to simulate spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and radiative forcing(RF) of organic carbon(OC) aerosols in and around China.The preliminary simulation results show that OC aerosols are mostly concentrated in the area to the south of Yellow River and east of Tibetan Plateau.There is a decreasing trend of column burden of OC aerosols from south to north in China.The maximum value of column burden of OC aerosols is above 3 mg/m2 and located in the central and southern China,southeastern Tibet,and southwestern China’s Yunnan,Guizhou,Sichuan provinces.The simulation on the seasonal variation shows that the maximum value of column burden of OC aerosols appears in winter and the secondary value is in spring and the minimum in summer.The RF of OC aerosols which varies seasonally is negative at the top of the atmosphere(TOA) and surface.The spatio-temporal characteristics of the RF of OC aerosols are basically consistent with that of IPCC,implying the high accuracy of the parameterization scheme for OC aerosols in RegCM3.     

CTFM数值模式的引进及对山西暴雨预报能力的检验

为提高山西暴雨预报能力，在引进颜宏等人设计的复杂地形条件下嵌套细网格模式的基础上，对其进行了某些调整，即：中心点位置的改动：取水汽办事办事量Ｍ为Ｍ．＝Ｍｔｌ＋Ｍｔｍ＝１．７５Ｍｔｌ；湿润因子也按Ａｎｔｈｅｓ积云对流参数化方案取值，并将郭晓岚和Ａｎｔｈｅｓ两方案结合起来使用，企图建立适用于山西暴雨预报的数值预报系统，使用该系统，对１９９３年山西暴雨个例进行了数值模拟，发现该系统对雨量及天气过程的模拟     

一非线性统计－动力气候模式及其降水预报试验

在带有线性反馈的统计－动力气候模式的基础上，提出了一种非线性统计－动力气候模式。该模式的实质是用逐段线性化的统计－动力气候模式来描述气候系统的总体非线性变化特征。试验结果表明，该模式能更客观地预测气候变化     

初始场结构对台风路径影响的数值试验

设计了一个套网格的准地转正压模式，对模式的可用性进行了检验。用该模式实施了两组不同初始场的试验，分析了初始场结构对台风路径的影响，指出台风移动具有内在随机性的特征。     

人工引发雷电试验及其特征的初步分析

1989年夏季，我们在甘肃永登黑林子地区进行了用拖带接地金属细丝的火箭引发雷电的试验，获得了3次成功。本文分析了这3次引发雷电的放电特征。结果表明，放电是在雷暴云下部正电荷的作用下上行负流光的激发和传播过程，雷电人工引发时的地面电场为6－8kV/m。由一简单物理模式粗略地定量估算出了放电参数：中和电荷量约为12－5．3C,电荷 中心离地高度1．3－2．5km，和甘肃地区雷暴云下部正电荷中心高度范围一致。     

非静力平衡模式的中尺度非均匀初始场试验和锋面模拟

用非静力平衡二维中β－γ尺度大气模式,选取１９８７年欧洲的一次冷锋过程为个例,以法国的静力平衡模式的模拟结果为初始场,选用５ｋｍ,２５ｋｍ,４５ｋｍ３种水平格距进行了水平范围为２０００ｋｍ的模拟,结果表明：（１）中尺度非静力平衡模式应用非均匀初始场,而不加人为的初始扰动是可行的;（２）扰动量的初始场中π′的精度要求很高,应严格符合静力平衡条件,否则就会产生严重误差,甚至在一个时步内改变垂直速度;（３）５ｋｍ,２５ｋｍ,４５ｋｍ３种格距的对比模拟表明,５ｋｍ格距的非静力平衡模式能模拟出锋面上的多个中β尺度对流,且垂直速度场分布与实际最接近,而后两种格距只能模拟出锋面上的大范围上升区,不能细致地描述锋面对流结构。     

A CASE STUDY OF FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND ITS SENSITIVITY TO COASTAL INITIAL CONDITIONS

In this study,the predictability and physical processes leading to the rapid frontal cyclogenesis,that took place in the east coast of the U.S.during 3—4 October 1987,are examined using a nested-grid.mesoscale model with a fine-mesh grid size of 25km.It is shown that the model reproducesreasonably well the cyclogenesis in a coastal baroclinic zone.its subsequent deepening and movementas well as the pertinent precipitation.It is found that the frontal cyclogenesis occurs in a favorablelarge-scale environment with pronounced thermal advection in the lower troposphere and markedpotential vorticity(PV)concentration aloft associated with the tropopause depression.The transportof warm and moist air from the marine boundary layer by the low-level in-shore flow provides thenecessary energy source for the observed heavy precipitation and a variety of weather phenomenareported in the cold sector.Several 24-h sensitivity simulations are performed to examine the relative importance of diabaticheating,adiabatic dynamics and various initial conditions in the frontal cyclogenesis.It is found thatlatent heat release,even though quite intense,accounts for only 25% of the cyclone's total deepeningin this case:the weak impact seems due to the occurrence of latent heating in the cold sector and theupward lifting of the dynamical tropopause by diabatic updrafts.Vorticity budgets show that the low-level thermal advection dominates the incipient stage,whereas the vorticity advection determines therapid deepening rate at the mature stage.The results reveal that the predictability of the presentstorm is closely related to the vertical coupling between the surface cyclone and the upper-level PVcore,which is in turn determined by initial offshore perturbations in the lower troposphere.