Carbon Sequestration, Soil Conservation, and the Kyoto Protocol: Summary of Implications

This paper discusses relationships between soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol is the first attempt to use the flexibility of the global market place to stabilize and reduce GHG emissions, mitigate climate change, and promote sustainable development. The protocol emerged first as a framework agreement, but through international negotiations it is progressing into sets of legal articles. These impose obligations on all signatories, but they also identify opportunities for improved environmental land management at local, national and international levels. This is particularly true for soil conservation, where the sequestration of carbon above and below ground increases soil organic matter, enhances soil fertility, and improves production, while concomitantly reducing atmospheric CO₂. It is a classic `win-win' situation. Both the evolving opportunities and the obligations under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed in the paper.     

The WTO and the Kyoto Protocol: interaction issues

Abstract

This article builds upon the broad survey of climate-trade interactions in Part 1, by focusing upon the specific issues in the interaction of the WTO and the Kyoto Protocol.¹ It classifies the various issues into three groups according to their potential to cause problems and relative urgency. The article gives special attention to issues that are problematic because of the likelihood of occurrence of specific conflicts and the significance of their economic and/or political consequences. It concludes that although there are many interactions that are not problematic and some that offer the potential for win—win outcomes, the possibility of offsetting border measures that could be applied against energy-intensive imports from the USA may become a particularly nettlesome issue.     

The emperor's new clothes: redressing the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

US President Bush repudiated the Kyoto Protocol because, in his view, it is ‘fatally flawed in fundamental ways’. This paper evaluates seven proposals to redress the protocol according to their potential to deal with three key issues that have reinforced US intransigence: hot air, cost uncertainty and developing country participation. It argues that negotiations on intensity targets hold the most promise. Because intensity targets limit hot air, but do not limit economic growth, and a high variance of carbon intensity exists among countries with similar GDP per capita, intensity targets based on best practice levels might be agreeable to developing countries and the US. If a protocol specifying such targets were implemented, less warming would be associated with larger world GDP than would otherwise be the case, and countries' carbon intensity and emissions per capita would tend to converge to best practice levels at every stage of development.     

Sinks and the Kyoto Protocol

Deliberate land management actions that enhance the uptake of CO₂ or reduce its emissions have the potential to remove a significant amount of CO₂ from the atmosphere over the next three decades. The quantities involved are large enough to satisfy a substantial portion of the Kyoto Protocol commitments for many countries, but are not large enough to stabilise atmospheric concentrations without also implementing major reductions in fossil fuel emissions. ‘Sinks’ can be deployed relatively rapidly at moderate cost and thus could play a useful bridging role while new energy technologies are developed.There is no difference in climatological effect between CO₂ taken up by the land and CO₂ reductions due to other causes. There are potential regulatory differences, related to the security with which the CO₂ is held and to the accuracy with which it can be measured and verified. A variety of policy approaches are available to address these differences.     

Sinks and the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

Deliberate land management actions that enhance the uptake of CO₂ or reduce its emissions have the potential to remove a significant amount of CO₂ from the atmosphere over the next three decades. The quantities involved are large enough to satisfy a substantial portion of the Kyoto Protocol commitments for many countries, but are not large enough to stabilise atmospheric concentrations without also implementing major reductions in fossil fuel emissions. ‘Sinks’ can be deployed relatively rapidly at moderate cost and thus could play a useful bridging role while new energy technologies are developed.

There is no difference in climatological effect between CO₂ taken up by the land and CO₂ reductions due to other causes. There are potential regulatory differences, related to the security with which the CO₂ is held and to the accuracy with which it can be measured and verified. A variety of policy approaches are available to address these differences.     

Japanese ratification of the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

This paper discusses Japan's quantitative Kyoto target in the context of the country's socio-economic and political background and its desire to express international leadership. Japan's initial negotiating target was developed as a compromise between domestic industrial considerations and its international ambitions, and was strengthened further under the pressures to achieve success at Kyoto.

The original projections relied heavily upon nuclear expansion that will not be realized. Though economic stagnation has helped emissions to decline from their mid-1990s peak, it has also reduced the attention devoted to climate change and the willingness to bear costs, and Japan's commitment remains daunting. Japanese bureaucrats and diplomats are called to work closer together and in an integrated manner in order to develop a new, more realistic policy package for achieving their target. This report analyses various scenarios for additional policies for Japan, including fuel switching, carbon taxation and emissions trading, and concludes that the introduction of gas in the context of energy market liberalization is a key possibility. It also considers the sink and the nuclear energy issues both of high importance for the country.     

Japanese ratification of the Kyoto Protocol

This paper discusses Japan’s quantitative Kyoto target in the context of the country’s socio-economic and political background and its desire to express international leadership. Japan’s initial negotiating target was developed as a compromise between domestic industrial considerations and its international ambitions, and was strengthened further under the pressures to achieve success at Kyoto.The original projections relied heavily upon nuclear expansion that will not be realized. Though economic stagnation has helped emissions to decline from their mid-1990s peak, it has also reduced the attention devoted to climate change and the willingness to bear costs, and Japan’s commitment remains daunting. Japanese bureaucrats and diplomats are called to work closer together and in an integrated manner in order to develop a new, more realistic policy package for achieving their target. This report analyses various scenarios for additional policies for Japan, including fuel switching, carbon taxation and emissions trading, and concludes that the introduction of gas in the context of energy market liberalization is a key possibility. It also considers the sink and the nuclear energy issues both of high importance for the country.     

Tropical Deforestation and the Kyoto Protocol

The current annual rates of tropical deforestation from Brazil and Indonesia alone would equal four-fifths of the emissions reductions gained by implementing the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period, jeopardizing the goal of Protocol to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate system. We propose the novel concept of “compensated reduction”, whereby countries that elect to reduce national level deforestation to below a previously determined historical level would receive post facto compensation, and commit to stabilize or further reduce deforestation in the future. Such a program could create large-scale incentives to reduce tropical deforestation, as well as for broader developing country participation in the Kyoto Protocol, and leverage support for the continuity of the Protocol beyond the 2008–2012 first commitment period.     

Implementing the Kyoto Protocol without Russia

Abstract

This paper examines implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russia. It concludes that implementation without Russia is possible, although it requires political will on the part of the countries that wish to proceed with the Protocol. It would lead to higher compliance costs for Annex B buyer regions, but other regions, except Russia, would benefit financially. Russia would forego revenue of at least $20 billion for the first commitment period. Implementation without Russia could improve the environmental performance of the Protocol. It would reduce reliance on Annex B sinks, use of surplus assigned amount units (AAUs) for compliance, and the quantity of Kyoto units banked for subsequent commitment periods. Actual emissions by Kyoto Protocol Parties would fall, but the reduction may be offset by leakage to the US and Russia.     

Economics of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia

Abstract

In this article we propose a careful analysis of the economic consequences of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia, taking into account the most recently available data and the latest developments in the trends regarding Russian economic recovery. We present a review of different GHG forecasts for Russia and develop a new forecast for uncertain GDP growth and changing elasticity of GHG emission per GDP. Since the rate of growth remains uncertain, elasticity could change over time, as well as the fuel mix. We apply the Monte-Carlo method to simulate these uncertainties and to produce a reasonable interval for CO₂ emissions in 2010. The probability of Russia exceeding its Kyoto emissions budget is essentially zero. Further, we discuss the benefits for Russia from the Kyoto Protocol, and more generally from implementation of GHG mitigation policy. Ancillary benefits from Kyoto Protocol implementation will bring essential reductions in risk to human health. On the other hand, potential negative changes in the fuel mix and GDP structure, as well as a slowing of the innovation process, could exacerbate existing health problems. Alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol may bring much tougher commitments to Russia. We conclude that the Kyoto Protocol is the best possible deal for Russia. Therefore, Russia most will ratify it.     

California RECLAIM's market failure: lessons for the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

The failure of Los Angeles' RECLAIM emission trading market in the summer of 2000 uncovers important issues that have direct relevance for the various systems now emerging for exchanging greenhouse gas credits. Two primary causes for the breakdown of RECLAIM are apparent. On the one hand, RECLAIM did not succeed because of a series of unpredictable events that included manipulation of the market by brokers and the California energy shortage. On the other hand, several potentially foreseeable program design flaws contributed to the failure. This study examines the structure of RECLAIM and concludes that there was sufficient resilience to endure the two unexpected crises. However, the problematic program design features created a market that was fatally flawed and, regardless of impinging circumstances, was ultimately bound to collapse. We also investigate the status of the rapidly developing international greenhouse gas market and identify several lessons from the RECLAIM experience: the need for a holistic approach to market design that includes the role of a bank, the interface with project-based credits, the similarities of the industries enrolled in the program, and need to carefully consider how to handle the problems caused by the end of the trading period.     

The Kyoto Protocol Emission Allocations: Windfall Surpluses for Russia and Ukraine

The emission targets adopted in the Kyoto Protocol¹ far exceed thelikely level of emissions from Russia and Ukraine. These countries could selltheir surplus if the Protocol is followedand industrialized countries establish an international emission tradingsystem. Critics have condemned the potentialsale and dubbed the surplus hot air because it does not represent anyreduction in emissions below the level thatwould have occurred anyway. Using the most recent, comprehensive regionalscenarios² for the emissions of carbon dioxide from the energysystem, we estimate that during the Protocol's2008–2012 budget period the surplus will range from 9 MtC (milliontons of carbon) to 900 MtC for Russia andfrom 3 MtC to 200 MtC for Ukraine. Even scenarios with high economic growthand carbon-intensive technologies donot exhaust the surplus before the budget period. In the central (middlecourse) scenario, the total carbon surplusexceeds 1000 MtC and is worth 22 to 170 billion U.S. dollars (4 to 34 billionU.S. dollars per year). This flow ofrevenues, which could exceed Russian earnings from natural gas exports($10 billion in 1997³), is comparable with the projectedtotal investmentsof the Russian energy system for 2008–2012. If directed towardslow-carbon infrastructure investments (e.g., gaspipelines), surplus transfers could reinforce and partially lock-indecarbonization of the world energy system.     

LULUCF在《京都议定书》履约中的作用

根据主要附件I缔约方2011年向《联合国气候变化框架公约》递交的1990—2009年国家温室气体（GHG）排放清单数据,包括报告的《京都议定书》土地利用、土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）活动数据,对其LULUCF GHG源/汇趋势、《京都议定书》缔约方LULUCF相关活动在履约中的作用进行系统的对比分析,对缔约方会议确定的森林管理活动汇清除的限额进行评估。分析表明,1990—2009年,附件I缔约方LULUCF总体表现为净GHG汇清除,且总体上呈波浪式增加趋势,20年增加了65.9%,但年际波动较大。1990年LULUCF汇清除相当于GHG排放总量的7.41%, 2009年上升到13.68%。《京都议定书》第一承诺期的最初两年（2008—2009年）,各缔约方每年可从合格的LULUCF活动中获得2.38亿t CO2当量的汇清除,相当于这些缔约方基准年源排放的1.91%,可抵消其减限排额的45%。汇清除主要来自森林管理活动,而其他活动的汇清除所占份额很小。LULUCF活动使《京都议定书》的实施效果大打折扣,为一些缔约方过多地使用森林管理活动的汇清除来完成其减限排指标提供了机会,特别是俄罗斯、日本和意大利等国。这为目前正在谈判的第二承诺期LULUCF规则,特别是如何利用森林管理汇清除的规则敲响警钟。     

《京都议定书》第二承诺期谈判艰难迈出第一步

2005年12月在蒙特利尔举行的《京都议定书》第一次缔约方会议决定按议定书第三条第九款的规定启动附件一缔约方(发达国家和经济转轨国家)2012年后温室气体减排指标的谈判,即第二承诺期谈判,并成立了“不限名额特设工作组”(以下简称工作组)。第二承诺期谈     

Introducing top-down methods in assessing compliance with the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol has an ambitious reporting and review system to assess Parties' compliance with their emission commitments. It is based on a ‘bottom-up’ approach; that is, each Party is required to submit detailed inventories of emissions and removals. This requires considerable resources and may still not detect all important cases of non-compliance. We consider the case for introducing ‘top-down’ methods; that is, independent inverse modelling methods that calculate probable emissions using measured concentrations of gases in the atmosphere and meteorological models. We argue that the top-down methods are at present too inaccurate, too cumbersome, and politically too problematic to serve as independent alternatives to the reported emission inventories for assessing compliance, although they could be useful in monitoring the global success of the protocol. We conclude that these top-down approaches may supplement the traditional emission inventories, in particular those dealing with fluorinated gases, thereby providing input for improving the emission inventory methods.     

Russian behaviour in the market for permits under the Kyoto Protocol

After the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the extension of national quotas in the Bonn and Marrakesh agreements, meagre environmental effects and a low price of emission permits are likely to be the outcome of implementation. This paper attempts to analyze this scenario, mainly in relation to the Russian case. I discuss on the basis of certain key assumptions the strategic options open to the supply side of the permit market and Russia’s potentially incompatible interests as a producer of oil and gas on the one hand and a dominating seller of emission permits under the Kyoto Protocol on the other. The analysis shows that Russian oil and gas interests are likely to boost Russia’s inclination to sell permits, ultimately resulting in lower permit prices.     

Russian behaviour in the market for permits under the Kyoto Protocol

After the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the extension of national quotas in the Bonn and Marrakesh agreements, meagre environmental effects and a low price of emission permits are likely to be the outcome of implementation. This paper attempts to analyze this scenario, mainly in relation to the Russian case. I discuss on the basis of certain key assumptions the strategic options open to the supply side of the permit market and Russia's potentially incompatible interests as a producer of oil and gas on the one hand and a dominating seller of emission permits under the Kyoto Protocol on the other. The analysis shows that Russian oil and gas interests are likely to boost Russia's inclination to sell permits, ultimately resulting in lower permit prices.