Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO2 sink and pH change

A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration and different future scenarios (called Rep- resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs). The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO 2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs. The net air-sea CO 2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a (calculated by carbon) in 2005; however, it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century. The ocean absorbs CO 2 mainly in the mid latitude, and releases CO 2 in the equator area. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO 2 concentration, including RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In 2100, the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model. The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution, and would continue to decrease in the 21st century. For the highest concentration sce- nario of RCP8.5, the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO 2 from atmosphere.     

Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO₂ concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO₂ uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO₂ increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO₂ decreased.     

Biological Pump in Northwestern North Pacific

The northwestern North Pacific is considered to be one of the most productive areas in the global ocean. Although the marginal zones along the Japanese and Kuril islands, Kamchatka Peninsula, and Aleutian Islands are certainly productive, recent studies do not always show high primary production values in the western subarctic gyre (WSG). In addition, a recent analysis of the biological pump in the WSG showed that, in contrast to what was previously reported, the vertical change of the particulate organic carbon flux with depth is large. Nevertheless, the biological pump in the northwestern North Pacific may function to draw down the partial pressure of CO₂ in the surface water because the ratio of the organic carbon flux to inorganic carbon flux (C_org/C_inorg), the export flux, and the export ratio from the surface water are higher than those in other oceans. This article also introduces recent research on changes to the biological pump that might have been caused by global warming. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seasonal and interannual variability of carbon cycle in South China Sea: A three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical modeling study

The South China Sea (SCS) exhibits strong variations on seasonal to interannual time scale, and the changing Southeast Asian Monsoon has direct impacts on the nutrients and phytoplankton dynamics, as well as the carbon cycle. A Pacific basin-wide physical-biogeochemical model has been developed and used to investigate the physical variations, ecosystem responses, and carbon cycle consequences. The Pacific basin-wide circulation model, based on the Regional Ocean Model Systems (ROMS) with a 50-km spatial resolution, is driven with daily air-sea fluxes derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis between 1990 and 2004. The biogeochemical processes are simulated with the Carbon, Si(OH)₄, Nitrogen Ecosystem (CoSINE) model consisting of multiple nutrients and plankton functional groups and detailed carbon cycle dynamics. The ROMS-CoSINE model is capable of reproducing many observed features and their variability over the same period at the SouthEast Asian Time-series Study (SEATS) station in the SCS. The integrated air-sea CO₂ flux over the entire SCS reveals a strong seasonal cycle, serving as a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere in spring, summer and autumn, but acting as a sink of CO₂ for the atmosphere in winter. The annual mean sea-to-air CO₂ flux averaged over the entire SCS is +0.33 moles CO₂ m⁻²year⁻¹, which indicates that the SCS is a weak source of CO₂ to the atmosphere. Temperature has a stronger influence on the seasonal variation of pCO₂ than biological activity, and is thus the dominant factor controlling the oceanic pCO₂ in the SCS. The water temperature, seasonal upwelling and Kuroshio intrusion determine the pCO₂ differences at coast of Vietnam and the northwestern region of the Luzon Island. The inverse relationship between the interannual variability of Chl-a in summer near the coast of Vietnam and NINO₃ SST (Sea Surface Temperature) index in January implies that the carbon cycle and primary productivity in the SCS is teleconnected to the Pacific-East Asian large-scale climatic variability.     

Air—sea CO2 fluxes in a coastal embayment affected by upwelling: physical versus biological control

Water column pCO₂ and air-sea CO₂ fluxes were studied during an 18-month period (May 1994–September 1995) in a coastal embayment affected by upwelling, located in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (Ria de Vigo and adjacent shelf). Overall, the region acted as a net annual atmospheric CO₂ sink, with magnitude ranging from 0.54 mgC m⁻²d⁻¹ in the Ria estuary to 22 mgC m⁻²d⁻¹ offshore. During moderate upwelling and upwelling relaxation conditions the sampling area was a sink for atmospheric CO₂. By contrast, during winter conditions and during intense upwelling the flux reversed towards the atmosphere. The relative influence of physical and biological processes on pCO₂ was evaluated using two different approaches: firstly, statistical analysis of physico-chemical correlations, and secondly, a thermodynamic analysis in the oceanic CO₂ system. Both methods yielded consistent results, showing that the main processes controlling seasonal and spatial pCO₂ variability were the production and remineralization of organic matter, explaining ca. 70 % of the total variability. In the inner part of the embayment, air-sea CO₂ exchange was mainly modulated by CO₂ partial pressure gradient, whereas in the adjacent shelf, wind speed largely contributed to CO₂ fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere.     

Time-series observation of dissolved inorganic carbon and nutrients in the northwestern North Pacific

Time-series measurements of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and nutrient concentrations were conducted in the northwestern North Pacific from October 2002 to August 2004. Assuming that data obtained in different years represented time-series seasonal data for a single year, vertical distributions of DIC and nutrients showed large seasonal variabilities in the surface layer (∼100 m). Seasonal variabilities in normalized DIC (nDIC) and nitrate concentrations at the sea surface were estimated to be 81–113 μmol kg⁻¹ and 12.7–15.7 μmol kg⁻¹, respectively, in the Western Subarctic Gyre. The variability in nutrients between May and July was generally at least double that in other seasons. In the Western Subarctic Gyre, estimations based on statistical analyses revealed that seasonal new production was 39–61 gC m⁻² and tended to be higher in the southwestern regions or coastal regions. The seasonal new productions in the northwestern North Pacific were two or more times higher than in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the northeastern North Pacific. It is likely that this difference is due to spatial variations in the concentrations of trace metals and the species of phytoplankton present. In addition, from estimations of surface pCO₂ it was verified that the Western Subarctic Gyre is a source of atmospheric CO₂ between February and May and a sink for CO₂ between July and October.     

North Pacific Synthesis of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study: Overview

This special issue is comprised of 13 papers, including this overview, and focuses on the synthesis of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) in the North Pacific which took place from 1997 through 2003. The effort was led by the JGOFS North Pacific Synthesis Group, with the aim of quantifying CO₂ drawdown by physical and biological pumps in the North Pacific by identifying and studying the regional, seasonal to inter-annual variations in the key processes, and understanding their regulating mechanisms. Emphasis was placed on the similarities and differences of the biogeochemical regimes in the eastern and western subarctic Pacific. Effort was also made to address the future research directions which arose from the scientific findings during the North Pacific JGOFS process study. A brief overview of the papers from view points of CO₂ drawdown by physical and biological pumps, spatial variability, and temporal variability from seasonal to decadal scales is made, followed by suggestions for the directions of future research. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of upwelling,tides and biological processes on the inorganic carbon system of a coastal lagoon in Baja California

The role of coastal lagoons and estuaries as sources or sinks of inorganic carbon in upwelling areas has not been fully understood. During the months of May–July, 2005, we studied the dissolved inorganic carbon system in a coastal lagoon of northwestern Mexico during the strongest period of upwelling events. Along the bay, different scenarios were observed for the distributions of pH, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) as a result of different combinations of upwelling intensity and tidal amplitude. DIC concentrations in the outer part of the bay were controlled by mixing processes. At the inner part of the bay DIC was as low as 1800 μmol kg⁻¹, most likely due to high water residence times and seagrass CO₂ uptake. It is estimated that 85% of San Quintín Bay, at the oceanic end, acted as a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere due to the inflow of CO₂-rich upwelled waters from the neighboring ocean with high positive fluxes higher than 30 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹. In contrast, there was a net uptake of CO₂ and HCO₃⁻ by the seagrass bed Zostera marina in the inner part of the bay, so the pCO₂ in this zone was below the equilibrium value and slightly negative CO₂ fluxes of −6 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹. Our positive NEP and ΔDIC values indicate that Bahía San Quintín was a net autotrophic system during the upwelling season during 2005.     

Biogeochemical ocean-atmosphere transfers in the Arabian Sea

Transfers of some important biogenic atmospheric constituents, carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), molecular nitrogen (N₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O), nitrate , ammonia (NH₃), methylamines (MAs) and dimethylsulphide (DMS), across the air–sea interface are investigated using published data generated mostly during the Arabian Sea Process Study (1992–1997) of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS). The most important contribution of the region to biogeochemical fluxes is through the production of N₂ and N₂O facilitated by an acute, mid-water deficiency of dissolved oxygen (O₂); emissions of these gases to the atmosphere from the Arabian Sea are globally significant. For the other constituents, especially CO₂, even though the surface concentrations and atmospheric fluxes exhibit extremely large variations both in space and time, arising from the unique physical forcing and associated biogeochemical environment, the overall significance in terms of their global fluxes is not much because of the relatively small area of the Arabian Sea. Distribution and air–sea exchanges of some of these constituents are likely to be greatly influenced by alterations of the subsurface O₂ field forced by human-induced eutrophication and/or modifications to the regional hydrography.     

Changes in ocean ventilation during the 21st Century in the CCSM3

Changes in the ventilation rate of the global ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries, as indicated by changes in the distribution of ideal age, are examined in a series of integrations of the Community Climate System Model version 3. The global mean age changes little in the 20th Century relative to pre-industrial conditions, but increases in the 21st Century, by an amount that is independent of the range of climate forcings considered. The increase is primarily due to a decrease in the ventilation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), and to a lesser degree, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Changes in a regional volumetric census of age indicate that the changes in AABW are predominantly for waters that are already older than 100 years, so will likely have a moderate direct feedback on oceanic uptake of CO₂ and other tracers. On the other hand, the changes in NADW occur most strongly in waters that are a few decades old, so are more likely to have a feedback on the climate system. While the global mean age increases, the age does not increase everywhere in the ocean. Regions newly exposed to strong atmospheric forcing as sea ice retreats experience an increase in convection and decreasing age. Age also decreases over a large volume of the lower thermocline as the rate of upwelling of old deep water decreases with the weakening of the thermohaline circulation.     

Global air-sea surface carbon dioxide transfer velocity and flux estimated using 17 a altimeter data and a new algorithm

The global distributions of the air-sea CO2 transfer velocity and flux are retrieved from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimeter data from October 1992 to December 2009 using a combined algorithm. The 17 a average global, area-weighted, Schmidt number-corrected mean gas transfer velocity is 21.26 cm/h, and the full exploration of the uncertainty of this estimate awaits further data. The average total CO2 flux （calculated by carbon） from atmosphere to ocean during the 17 a was 2.58 Pg/a. The highest transfer velocity is in the circumpolar current area, because of constant high wind speeds and currents there. This results in strong CO2 fluxes. CO2 fluxes are strong but opposite direction in the equatorial east Pacific Ocean, because the air-sea CO2 partial pressure difference is the largest in the global cceans. The results differ from the previous studies calculated using the wind speed. It is demonstrated that the air-sea transfer velocity is very important for estimating air-sea CO2 flux. It is critical to have an accurate estimation for improving calculation of CO2 flux within climate change studies.     

Seasonal and interannual variability of oceanic carbon cycling in the western and central tropical-subtropical pacific: A physical-biogeochemical modeling study

The oceanic carbon cycle in the tropical-subtropical Pacific is strongly affected by various physical processes with different temporal and spatial scales, yet the mechanisms that regulate air-sea CO₂ flux are not fully understood due to the paucity of both measurement and modeling. Using a 3-D physical-biogeochemical model, we simulate the partial pressure of CO₂ in surface water (pCO_2sea) and air-sea CO₂ flux in the tropical and subtropical regions from 1990 to 2004. The model reproduces well the observed spatial differences in physical and biogeochemical processes, such as: (1) relatively higher sea surface temperature (SST), and lower dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and pCO_2sea in the western than in the central tropical-subtropical Pacific, and (2) predominantly seasonal and interannual variations in the subtropical and tropical Pacific, respectively. Our model results suggest a non-negligible contribution of the wind variability to that of the air-sea CO₂ flux in the central tropical Pacific, but the modeled contribution of 7% is much less than that from a previous modeling study (30%; McKinley et al., 2004). While DIC increases in the entire region SST increases in the subtropical and western tropical Pacific but decreases in the central tropical Pacific from 1990 to 2004. As a result, the interannual pCO_2sea variability is different in different regions. The pCO_2sea temporal variation is found to be primarily controlled by SST and DIC, although the role of salinity and total alkalinity, both of which also control pCO_2sea, need to be elucidated by long-term observations and eddy-permitting models for better estimation of the interannual variability of air-sea CO₂ flux.     

Features of coastal upwelling regions that determine net air-sea CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux

The influence of the coastal ocean on global net annual air-sea CO₂ fluxes remains uncertain. However, it is well known that air-sea pCO₂ disequilibria can be large (ocean pCO₂ ranging from ∼400 μatm above atmospheric saturation to ∼250 μatm below) in eastern boundary currents, and it has been hypothesized that these regions may be an appreciable net carbon sink. In addition it has been shown that the high productivity in these regions (responsible for the exceptionally low surface pCO₂) can cause nutrients and inorganic carbon to become more concentrated in the lower layer of the water column over the shelf relative to adjacent open ocean waters of the same density. This paper explores the potential role of the winter season in determining the net annual CO₂ flux in temperate zone eastern boundary currents, using the results from a box model. The model is parameterized and forced to represent the northernmost part of the upwelling region on the North American Pacific coast. Model results are compared to the few summer data that exist in that region. The model is also used to determine the effect that upwelling and downwelling strength have on the net annual CO₂ flux. Results show that downwelling may play an important role in limiting the amount of CO₂ outgassing that occurs during winter. Finally data from three distinct regions on the Pacific coast are compared to highlight the importance of upwelling and downwelling strength in determining carbon fluxes in eastern boundary currents and to suggest that other features, such as shelf width, are likely to be important.     

中国南海、东海及黄海海域海气二氧化碳通量与生产力的物理生物地球化学模拟研究

Marginal seas play important roles in regulating the global carbon budget, but there are great uncertainties in estimating carbon sources and sinks in the continental margins. A Pacific basin-wide physical-biogeochemical model is used to estimate primary productivity and air-sea CO_2 flux in the South China Sea(SCS), the East China Sea(ECS), and the Yellow Sea(YS). The model is forced with daily air-sea fluxes which are derived from the NCEP2 reanalysis from 1982 to 2005. During the period of time, the modeled monthly-mean air-sea CO_2 fluxes in these three marginal seas altered from an atmospheric carbon sink in winter to a source in summer. On annualmean basis, the SCS acts as a source of carbon to the atmosphere(16 Tg/a, calculated by carbon, released to the atmosphere), and the ECS and the YS are sinks for atmospheric carbon(–6.73 Tg/a and –5.23 Tg/a, respectively,absorbed by the ocean). The model results suggest that the sea surface temperature(SST) controls the spatial and temporal variations of the oceanic pCO_2 in the SCS and ECS, and biological removal of carbon plays a compensating role in modulating the variability of the oceanic pCO_2 and determining its strength in each sea,especially in the ECS and the SCS. However, the biological activity is the dominating factor for controlling the oceanic pCO_2 in the YS. The modeled depth-integrated primary production(IPP) over the euphotic zone shows seasonal variation features with annual-mean values of 293, 297, and 315 mg/(m~2·d) in the SCS, the ECS, and the YS, respectively. The model-integrated annual-mean new production(uptake of nitrate) values, as in carbon units, are 103, 109, and 139 mg/(m~2·d), which yield the f-ratios of 0.35, 0.37, and 0.45 for the SCS, the ECS, and the YS, respectively. Compared to the productivity in the ECS and the YS, the seasonal variation of biological productivity in the SCS is rather weak. The atmospheric pCO_2 increases from 1982 to 2005, which is consistent with the anthropogenic CO_2 input to the atmosphere. The oceanic pCO_2 increases in responses to the atmospheric pCO_2 that drives air-sea CO_2 flux in the model. The modeled increase rate of oceanic pCO_2 is0.91 μatm/a in the YS, 1.04 μatm/a in the ECS, and 1.66 μatm/a in the SCS, respectively.     

Temporal variations of surface oceanic and atmospheric CO2 fugacity and total dissolved inorganic carbon in the northwestern North Pacific

In order to examine temporal variations of the surface oceanic and atmospheric fCO₂ and the DIC concentration, we analyzed air and seawater samples collected during the period May 1992–June 1996 in the northwestern North Pacific, about 30 km off the coast of the main island of Japan. The atmospheric CO₂ concentration has increased secularly at a rate of 1.9 ppmv yr⁻¹, and it showed a clear seasonal cycle with a maximum in spring and a minimum late in summer, produced mainly by seasonally-dependent terrestrial biospheric activities. DIC also showed a prominent seasonal cycle in the surface ocean; the minimum and maximum values of the cycle appeared in early fall and in early spring, respectively, due primarily to the seasonally-dependent activities of marine biota and partly to the vertical mixing of seawater and the coastal upwelling. The oceanic fCO₂ values were almost always lower than those of the atmospheric fCO₂, suggesting that this area of the ocean acts as a sink for atmospheric CO₂. Values varied seasonally, mainly reflecting seasonal changes of SST and DIC, with a secular increase at a rate of 3.7 μatm yr⁻¹. The average values of the annual net CO₂ flux between the ocean and the atmosphere calculated by using the different bulk equations ranged between −0.8 and −1.7 mol m⁻²yr⁻¹, and its magnitude was enhanced and reduced late in spring and mid-summer, respectively, due mainly to the seasonally varying oceanic fCO₂.     

Doubled CO2 impact on subarctic marine carbon cycle: a case study at Ocean Station P

Along with meteorological observations, complementary and systematic oceanographic observations of various physical, biological and chemical parameters have been made at Ocean Station P (OSP) (50°N, 145°W) since the early 1950s. These decadal time scale data have contributed to a better understanding of the physical, biological and chemical processes in the surface layer of the northeastern subarctic region of the Pacific Ocean. These data have demonstrated the importance of the North Pacific in the global carbon cycle and, in particular, the role of biological/chemical processes in the net exchange of CO₂ across the air–sea interface. Although we do not fully comprehend how climatic variations influence marine communities or marine biogeochemistry, previous studies have provided some basic understanding of the mechanisms controlling the seasonal and inter-annual variations of biological and chemical parameters (such as phytoplankton, bacteria, nitrate/ammonium concentration) at OSP, and how they affect the carbon cycling in the subarctic North Pacific. In this study, we investigate how these mechanisms might alter the seasonal variations of these parameters at OSP under a 2XCO₂ condition. We examine these influences using a new biological model calibrated by the climatological data from OSP. For the 2XCO₂ simulation, the biological model is driven off line (i.e., no feedback to the ocean/atmospheric model components) by the climatology plus 2XCO₂−1XCO₂ outputs from a global surface ocean model and the Canadian GCM. Under the 2XCO₂ condition, the upper layer ocean shows an increase in the entrainment rate at the bottom of the mixed layer for OSP during the late autumn and winter seasons, resulting in an increase in the f-ratio. Although there is an overall increase in the primary production (PP) by 3–18%, a decrease in the biomass of small phytoplankton and microzooplankton (due to mesozooplankton grazing) lowers the concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) by 4–25%. The model also predicts a significant increase in the concentrations of nitrate and ammonium, and in bacterial production during July and August. Doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ from 330 to 660 ppm forces the marine pCO₂ to increase by about 63%, much of which is driven by an increased flux of CO₂ from the atmosphere to the oceans.     

Recent increase in surface fCO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in the western subtropical North Pacific

We observed unusually high levels (> 440 μatm) of carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO₂) in surface seawater in the western subtropical North Pacific, the area where Subtropical Mode Water is formed, during summer 2015. The NOAA Kuroshio Extension Observatory moored buoy located in this region also measured high CO₂ values, up to 500 μatm during this period. These high sea surface fCO₂ (fCO_2SW) values are explained by much higher normalized total dissolved inorganic carbon and slightly higher normalized total alkalinity concentrations in this region compared to the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, these values are much higher than the climatological CO₂ values, even considering increasing atmospheric CO₂, indicating a recent large increase in sea surface CO₂ concentrations. A large seasonal change in sea surface temperature contributed to higher surface fCO_2SW in the summer of 2015.     

Evaluation of ocean model ventilation with CFC-11: comparison of 13 global ocean models

We compared the 13 models participating in the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP) with regards to their skill in matching observed distributions of CFC-11. This analysis characterizes the abilities of these models to ventilate the ocean on timescales relevant for anthropogenic CO₂ uptake. We found a large range in the modeled global inventory (±30%), mainly due to differences in ventilation from the high latitudes. In the Southern Ocean, models differ particularly in the longitudinal distribution of the CFC uptake in the intermediate water, whereas the latitudinal distribution is mainly controlled by the subgrid-scale parameterization. Models with isopycnal diffusion and eddy-induced velocity parameterization produce more realistic intermediate water ventilation. Deep and bottom water ventilation also varies substantially between the models. Models coupled to a sea-ice model systematically provide more realistic AABW formation source region; however these same models also largely overestimate AABW ventilation if no specific parameterization of brine rejection during sea-ice formation is included. In the North Pacific Ocean, all models exhibit a systematic large underestimation of the CFC uptake in the thermocline of the subtropical gyre, while no systematic difference toward the observations is found in the subpolar gyre. In the North Atlantic Ocean, the CFC uptake is globally underestimated in subsurface. In the deep ocean, all but the adjoint model, failed to produce the two recently ventilated branches observed in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Furthermore, simulated transport in the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) is too sluggish in all but the isopycnal model, where it is too rapid.     

Natural air–sea flux of CO2 in simulations of the NASA-GISS climate model: Sensitivity to the physical ocean model formulation

Results from twin control simulations of the preindustrial CO₂ gas exchange (natural flux of CO₂) between the ocean and the atmosphere are presented here using the NASA-GISS climate model, in which the same atmospheric component (modelE2) is coupled to two different ocean models, the Russell ocean model and HYCOM. Both incarnations of the GISS climate model are also coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (NOBM) which estimates prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air–sea flux of CO₂. Model intercomparison is carried out at equilibrium conditions and model differences are contrasted with biases from present day climatologies. Although the models agree on the spatial patterns of the air–sea flux of CO₂, they disagree on the strength of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks mainly because of kinematic (winds) and chemistry (pCO₂) differences rather than thermodynamic (SST) ones. Biology/chemistry dissimilarities in the models stem from the different parameterizations of advective and diffusive processes, such as overturning, mixing and horizontal tracer advection and to a lesser degree from parameterizations of biogeochemical processes such as gravitational settling and sinking. The global meridional overturning circulation illustrates much of the different behavior of the biological pump in the two models, together with differences in mixed layer depth which are responsible for different SST, DIC and nutrient distributions in the two models and consequently different atmospheric feedbacks (in the wind, net heat and freshwater fluxes into the ocean).     

Summer and winter air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean

The seasonal variability of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) system in the Southern Ocean, south of 50°S, is analysed from observations obtained in January and August 2000 during OISO cruises conducted in the Indian Antarctic sector. In the seasonal ice zone, SIZ (south of 58°S), surface ocean CO₂ concentrations are well below equilibrium during austral summer. During this season, when sea-ice is not obstructing gas exchange at the air–sea interface, the oceanic CO₂ sink ranges from −2 to −4 mmol/m²/d in the SIZ. In the permanent open ocean zone, POOZ (50–58°S), surface oceanic fugacity fCO₂ increases from summer to winter. The seasonal fCO₂ variations (from 10 to 30 μatm) are relatively low compared to seasonal amplitudes observed in the subtropics or the subantarctic zones. However, these variations in the POOZ are large enough to cross the atmospheric level from summer to winter. Therefore, this region is neither a permanent CO₂ sink nor a permanent CO₂ source. In the POOZ, air–sea CO₂ fluxes calculated from observations are about −1.1 mmol/m²/d in January (a small sink) and 2.5 mmol/m²/d in August (a source). These estimates obtained for only two periods of the year need to be extrapolated on a monthly scale in order to calculate an integrated air–sea CO₂ flux on an annual basis. For doing this, we use a biogeochemical model that creates annual cycles for nitrate, inorganic carbon, total alkalinity and fCO₂. The changing pattern of ocean CO₂ summer sink and winter source is well reproduced by the model. It is controlled mainly by the balance between summer primary production and winter deep vertical mixing. In the POOZ, the annual air–sea CO₂ flux is about −0.5 mol/m²/yr, which is small compared to previous estimates based on oceanic observations but comparable to the small CO₂ sink deduced from atmospheric inverse methods. For reducing the uncertainties attached to the global ocean CO₂ sink south of the Polar Front the regional results presented here should be synthetized with historical and new observations, especially during winter, in other sectors of the Southern Ocean.