成藏体系中油气田母体的分布形式

预测一个地区油气田的规模分布和数量,为经济分析和勘探决策提供定量依据,是油气资源评价中必不可少的一个部分。目前对成藏体系中油气田规模分布形式存在不同的看法,建立一个可信的母体分布模型是预测油气田规模分布的基础。为研究成藏体系油气田母体的规模的分布形式,本文收集了世界范围内近六十个成藏体系和含油气盆地已发现油气田规模分布的资料,以此分析油气田母体的分布类型。     

Lognormality in the observed size distribution of oil and gas pools as a consequence of sampling bias

Economic filtration has been offered as an explanation of the observed lognormality in the size distribution of discovered oil and gas deposits. The result leads to the conclusion that one cannot impute the shape of the underlying parent distribution from the observed discoveries size distribution. The fact that the largest pools tend to be discovered early in the exploration history of an area of interest suggests the existence of an inherent sampling bias in the discovery process. The bias is influenced by the levels of geologic knowledge and technological sophistication. Furthermore, the existence of the bias leads to lognormality in the observed discoveries size distribution of oil and gas pools. A discovery process model explicitly incorporating the notion of sampling bias was applied to a series of Weibull parent frequency size distributions. The selected parent distributions are of a class suggested in the literature as more reflective of nature's size distribution and have empirical support. The distribution of discoveries resulting from the application of the model to the chosen parent size distributions were tested for lognormality using a chi-squared test. Lognormality was found to be an acceptable model of the discoveries size distribution over a wide range of resource exhaustion measures. When combined with the notion of economic filtration, sampling bias leads to the conclusion that one should not expect the lognormal distribution to accurately represent the underlying parent size distribution of oil and gas deposits.     

Observed oil and gas field size distributions: A consequence of the discovery process and prices of oil and gas

If observed oil and gas field size distributions are obtained by random samplings, the fitted distributions should approximate that of the parent population of oil and gas fields. However, empirical evidence strongly suggests that larger fields tend to be discovered earlier in the discovery process than they would be by random sampling. Economic factors also can limit the number of small fields that are developed and reported. This paper examines observed size distributions in state and federal waters of offshore Texas. Results of the analysis demonstrate how the shape of the observable size distributions change with significant hydrocarbon price changes. Comparison of state and federal observed size distributions in the offshore area shows how production cost differences also affect the shape of the observed size distribution. Methods for modifying the discovery rate estimation procedures when economic factors significantly affect the discovery sequence are presented. A primary conclusion of the analysis is that, because hydrocarbon price changes can significantly affect the observed discovery size distribution, one should not be confident about inferring the form and specific parameters of the parent field size distribution from the observed distributions.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Multi-model approach to petroleum resource appraisal using analytic methodologies for probabilistic systems

The geologic appraisal model that is selected for a petroleum resource assessment depends upon purpose of the assessment, basic geologic assumptions of the area, type of available data, time available before deadlines, available human and financial resources, available computer facilities, and, most importantly, the available quantitative methodology with corresponding computer software and any new quantitative methodology that would have to be developed. Therefore, different resource assessment projects usually require different geologic models. Also, more than one geologic model might be needed in a single project for assessing different regions of the study or for cross-checking resource estimates of the area. Some geologic analyses used in the past for petroleum resource appraisal involved play analysis. The corresponding quantitative methodologies of these analyses usually consisted of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. A probabilistic system of petroleum resource appraisal for play analysis has been designed to meet the following requirements: (1) includes a variety of geologic models, (2) uses an analytic methodology instead of Monte Carlo simulation, (3) possesses the capacity to aggregate estimates from many areas that have been assessed by different geologic models, and (4) runs quickly on a microcomputer. Geologic models consist of four basic types: reservoir engineering, volumetric yield, field size, and direct assessment. Several case histories and present studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are discussed.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts. MGLIS-87, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

基于排出—聚集—成藏的石油资源潜力评价方法:以南堡Ⅳ油气成藏体系为例

不同的油气资源评价方法具有不同的特点,将不同的评价方法相结合对于提高评价结果的准确度具有重要意义.基于油气排出—聚集—成藏的地质历史过程,同时结合油气勘探的数学规律来建立油气资源的定量预测模型,以此进行石油资源潜力评价.具体研究可分为4个步骤:①对研究区进行油气成藏体系的划分并定量研究其排烃强度,确定排烃量;②确定该油...     

Creaming and the Likelihood of Discovering Additional Giant Petroleum Fields

The applied context of this paper is the exploration for petroleum resources, like petroleum accumulations in different deposits, where the most promising deposits are likely to be drilled first, based on some size indicators, so-called creaming. The paper explores creaming models in the context of sampling with probabilities in proportion to size, for which a lognormal size distribution has nice analytical features. It departs from the traditional paradigm in petroleum resource assessment. Instead of conceiving a finite population being depleted over time in a decaying fashion with respect to size, the situation is studied within the framework of independent observations (infinite population) and an exploration maturity-dependent creaming factor. The theoretical and practical consequences for inference on the parent population and the probabilities and expectations linked to future discoveries are studied. The theory applies to the issue of remaining sizes of petroleum resources to be found within different future discovery horizons on the mature part of the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The aim is to obtain reasonable and useful predictions, and not to provide the best possible explanation of the exploratory behavior itself.     

Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of joint size from trace length measurements

Summary Usually, rock joints are observed in outcrops and excavation walls only as traces. Under some assumptions about the shapes of the joints and the nature of their size distributions, the underlying joint size distribution can be estimated from trace length measurements. However, the interpretation of trace length distributions from line mapping data should be approached with caution. The data are always length-biased and furthermore, the semi-trace length, the trace length, and the underlying joint size may have different distributional forms. Semi-trace length distributions are monotonic decreasing functions not sensitive to changes in the real trace length distributions. Experimental full trace length distributions are shown to have lognormal distributions and to be insensitive to major changes in the underlying joint size distributions. Under the assumptions of joint convexity and circularity a parametric model for the three-dimensional distribution of joint sizes is developed. A maximum likelihood estimation of the distribution of joint diameters, which best reflects the observed joint trace data, and corrects simultaneously for joint censoring, truncation and size bias, is developed. The theory is illustrated with numerical examples using data collected from five field sites.     

Fractal Analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">In Situ</Emphasis> Host Rock Nepheline Syenite Xenoliths in a Micro-Shonkinite Dyke (The Elchuru Alkaline Complex,SE India)

Formation of the fragments of the wall-rock during dyking is one of the important manifestations of instantaneous magmatic events. This process is well documented at shallower depths of Earth’s crust but not at deeper levels. In this paper the in situ xenoliths of host rock nepheline syenite within a micro-shonkinite dyke emplaced at mid-crustal depths is described and the fractal theory applied to evaluate origin of the xenoliths. The nepheline syenite xenoliths are angular to oval shaped and sub-millimetre to ~50 cm long. The xenoliths are matrix supported with clasts and matrix being in equal proportions. Partly detached wall-rock fragments indicate incipient xenolith formation, which suggested that the model fragmentation processes is solely due to dyke emplacement. Fractal analytical techniques including clast size distribution, boundary roughness fractal dimension and clast circularity was carried out. The fractal data suggests that hydraulic (tensile) fracturing is the main process of host rock brecciation. However, the clast size and shape are further affected by postfragmentation processes including shear and thermal fracturing, and chemical erosion. The study demonstrates that dyking in an isotropic medium produces fractal size distributions of host rock xenoliths; however, post-fragmentation processes modify original fractal size distributions.     

Power law olivine crystal size distributions in lithospheric mantle xenoliths

Olivine crystal size distributions (CSDs) have been measured in three suites of spinel- and garnet-bearing harzburgites and lherzolites found as xenoliths in alkaline basalts from Canary Islands, Africa; Victoria Land, Antarctica; and Pali Aike, South America. The xenoliths derive from lithospheric mantle, from depths ranging from 80 to 20 km. Their textures vary from coarse to porphyroclastic and mosaic–porphyroclastic up to cataclastic. Data have been collected by processing digital images acquired optically from standard petrographic thin sections. The acquisition method is based on a high-resolution colour scanner that allows image capturing of a whole thin section. Image processing was performed using the VISILOG 5.2 package, resolving crystals larger than about 150 μm and applying stereological corrections based on the Schwartz–Saltykov algorithm. Taking account of truncation effects due to resolution limits and thin section size, all samples show scale invariance of crystal size distributions over almost three orders of magnitude (0.2–25 mm). Power law relations show fractal dimensions varying between 2.4 and 3.8, a range of values observed for distributions of fragment sizes in a variety of other geological contexts.

A fragmentation model can reproduce the fractal dimensions around 2.6, which correspond to well-equilibrated granoblastic textures. Fractal dimensions >3 are typical of porphyroclastic and cataclastic samples. Slight bends in some linear arrays suggest selective tectonic crushing of crystals with size larger than 1 mm. The scale invariance shown by lithospheric mantle xenoliths in a variety of tectonic settings forms distant geographic regions, which indicate that this is a common characteristic of the upper mantle and should be taken into account in rheological models and evaluation of metasomatic models.     

中国石油安全评价及建议

石油安全对一个国家的经济发展具有重大意义。随着中国经济的持续快速增长,以及受国内石油资源短缺、石油地缘政治等因素的影响,国内石油供需矛盾进一步加剧,石油安全问题日益显现。为科学地评价中国石油安全的程度,先从国内资源禀赋、国内生产能力、国际市场可得性和国家应急保障能力4个方面设计了石油安全评价指标体系;然后,再采用德尔菲法、主成分分析法,选取国内原油储采比、国内原油储量替代率、国内石油消费对外依存度、国内石油进口集中度、国际原油价格和国内石油储备水平6个要素指标,构成一个新的综合指标,即石油安全度;最后,以石油安全度为工具,对中国近年来石油安全的形势进行了定量评价。     

Fractal Principle of Mineral Deposit Size Forecasting and Its Implication for Gold Resource Potential Evaluation in China

Mineralization distributions are very heterogeneous in nature. As large or superlarge mineral deposits are quite rare whether in time or in space, it is difficult to detect all the largest mineral deposits in a region in a limited period of time owing to the restriction of technology and exploration degrees-this is called "not all discovered". However, all discovered large, especially superlarge, mineral deposits generally have a complete census in the geological literatures. On the other hand, not all discovered small mineral deposits are recorded in the geological literatures because for economic reasons people have not much interest in them-this is called "not all recorded". This practice often results in the observation truncations, that is, the data points near the two ends in an observable population, which is obtained by fitting a power law size-frequency distribution to discovered mineral deposits in a given region, show concave-down departure from the correlation line fitted. The authors sugges     

Applications of petroleum fingerprinting in known and suspected pipeline releases—two case studies

In this paper, two small but practical case studies are presented that demonstrate the utility of detailed petroleum fingerprinting in investigating known or suspected pipeline releases. The two cases involve: (1) a known release of automotive gasoline from a product pipeline, which was accompanied by an intense fire, which prompted an investigation to determine the source of a peculiar, non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) discovered beneath the affected area during the accident’s clean-up and (2) a former trunk line pipeline from an oil field that was suspected as the source of a recently discovered NAPL. The known facts, analytical strategy, petroleum fingerprinting data and results for each case study are presented. Respectively, these cases highlight the utility of detailed petroleum fingerprinting of the diagnostic (1) volatile hydrocarbons comprising gasoline(s) and (2) non-volatile hydrocarbons, including petroleum biomarkers and an extended suite of parent and alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, found in crude oil(s) (and other heavy petroleum products).     

油气藏体积分布的分形特征及其意义──以四川地区气藏为例

应用分形理论来研究石油地质现象，是近年来地质学研究中的新方法和新思路。本文扼要介绍了分形和分维的基本概念和最新进展；并以四川地区为例，通过对川东、川西南、川南、川西北以及川中等地２００个气藏的统计研究，结果表明气藏的体积分布很好地遵从幂律分布规律，一定区域内油气藏的体积分布是一种分形分布。本文对分形分布的意义进行了探讨，提出了初步预测油气藏数目及储量的方法。该项成果为油气藏的研究开拓了新的领域。     

基于GIS平台和相关数学模型的宁夏南部地区金矿资源评价

主要介绍了基于ArcViewGIS平台对宁夏南部地区进行金矿资源评价。评价过程中利用该平台对空间数据进行编辑、管理和分析;利用其二次开发语言Avenue建立了金矿资源定位预测模型;还利用VC语言开发了金矿资源量预测模型,并实现该模型与平台的松散耦合。这些模型的开发较好的完成了研究区矿床定位预测和资源潜力评估,为生产部门提出了评价成果和工作建议。作者认为本文也为西部地区应用GIS进行矿产资源评价提供了新的技术途径和思路。     

Distribution of time lags between successive petroleum exploration activities

Four time lags are studied: (1) drilling activity behind seismic activity; (2) oil and gas reserves discovered behind drilling activity; (3) oil and gas production behind reserves discovered; and (4) oil and gas production behind drilling activity. A ridge regression method is used to estimate the distributions of these lags for 50 countries and regions active in petroleum exploration. A complete review of obtained results is given as well as an interpretation of estimated models and failed ridge regressions. Five types of distributions have been found: decreasing monotonically, unimodal, bimodal, uniform, and increasing monotonically. The distributions allow estimating the capital freezing in the exploration process and assessing the resulting policy made by all companies active in a country. For example, the actual exploration history in Poland is analyzed with the use of distributed time-lag approach and net present-value concept. An overinvestment in drilling in comparison with petroleum infrastructure has been stated on the basis of the excessive lagging of production behind drilling activity. A direction of further lag studies is also suggested.     

The distribution of dibenzothiophenes in Gulf of Mexico sediments

Sediment extracts from 81 piston cores taken in water depths between 70 and 1200 m on the Gulf of Mexico continental shelf and slope were analyzed for dibenzothiophenes by capillary gas chromatography with flame photometric detection (FPD). The major aromatic sulfur compounds detected were dibenzothiophene; methyl, ethyl and propyl dibenzothiophenes; two unidentified sulfur compounds; and a series of benzothiophenes. In general, benzothiophenes (BTs) were detected at only trace levels though this may be due to loss during the analysis. Dibenzothiophenes (DBTs) concentrations ranged from <1 to 1725 ng/g, with an average of 139 ng/g. Vertical distributions generally showed significant increases in DBTs concentrations with depth. DBTs distributions in sediment extracts were similar to oils produced in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Variations from this composition may be due to microbial degradation in the near subsurface. The vertical and molecular distribution of DBTs suggests that the source of DBTs in the Gulf of Mexico sediments studied is upward migrating petroleum. Two unidentified compounds are speculated to be derivatives of DBTs, caused by indigenous microbial activity. This study suggests that DBTs may be useful for detecting seepage from deeper, more mature, source rocks and/or reservoired petroleum.     

统计法在苏北盆地曲塘次凹古近系石油资源评价中的应用

受勘探程度影响,曲塘次凹古近系未开展以统计法为主的资源评价。采用油藏规模序列法、油藏发现序列法和广义帕累托法3种统计法,从不同的角度定量评价曲塘次凹古近系的石油资源潜力,最终得到曲塘次凹资源量2812万t。多种方法的计算结果可以相互验证,保证结果的可靠性。利用评价结果,还可类比勘探程度较低、地质条件相似区块的资源量,为石油行业战略决策提供依据。     

济阳坳陷八面河探区油气资源前景和勘探效益预测

在对山东省八面河探区基本石油地质特征、勘探历程及实际的勘探效益和累积发现地质储量变化分析基础上，应用基于探区油藏总体服从帕莱托分布假设的抽样分析发现过程模型，对其石油资源潜力和油藏总体分布进行了预测；并在预测结果的基础上，应用所建立的勘探效益预测仿真模型，对探区勘探效益变化进行了模拟，且外推了未来勘探效益及累积发现地质储量的变化趋势。通过发现过程模型预测，八面河探区总资源量为14900储量单位，剩余资源量为5300储量单位，其中大部分剩余资源分布于较小规模的油藏中。从勘探效益分析可知，八面河探区已进入成熟的勘探阶段，预计未来平均每日探井发现地质储量将小于28储量单位，勘探效益处于一定稳定、低效且缓慢下降的阶段。     

大型地下储油洞粘弹性稳定性分析

在大型地下岩洞中储油是世界各国石油战略储备的重要方式之一。随着我国石油进口量的不断增加,建造大型地下储油洞库无疑是一种综合经济效益良好的方案。针对大型地下水封储油岩洞库的工程特点,利用数值模拟方法对储库洞群中各洞室的开挖施工顺序进行了仿真模拟计算。通过对3种可能的施工方案所引起的地表变形、洞周关键位置的变形以及应力场和位移场的分布规律对比分析,比选出了洞群中各洞室较优的开挖先后顺序。对筛选出的较优方案进行了施工过程与粘弹性稳定性分析模拟,给出了考虑岩体流变特性时油库的变形规律特点,并对大型地下油库的强度及长期稳定性进行了分析评价,所得结论对地下储油库的开挖施工有一定的参考价值。