A model for the generation of simultaneous daily discharges of two rivers at their point of confluence

A geomorphological study at the confluence of the Danube and the Isar in Bavaria required long series of daily discharges in both rivers. A model that generates simultaneous correlated streamflows in both rivers was developed and tested. The model is a modified shot noise model, first developed by Treiber (1975) for a single river, that was adapted to two rivers. It generates correlated pulses of events that produce flow for each river, and these pulses are then convoluted with a river specific systems function. The model, after being calibrated for the two rivers on the basis of 85 years of records, yields artificial series of discharges, in which the statistical properties of the historical records are reproduced. The performance of the model was tested with 20 generated series each 100 years long.     

Century‐long records reveal slight,ecoregion‐localized changes in Athabasca River flows

Reports of abruptly declining flows of Canada's Athabasca River have prompted concern because this large, free‐flowing river could be representative for northern North America, provides water for the massive Athabasca oil‐sands projects and flows to the extensive and biodiverse Peace–Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie River deltas. To investigate historic hydrology along the river and its major tributaries, we expanded the time series with interpolations for short data gaps; calculations of annual discharges from early, summer‐only records; and by splicing records across sequential hydrometric gauges. These produced composite, century‐long records (1913–2011) and trend detection with linear Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to nonparametric Kendall τ‐b tests. These revealed that the mountain and foothills reaches displayed slight increases in winter discharges versus larger declines in summer discharges and consequently declining annual flows (~0.16% per year at Hinton; p < 0.01). Conversely, with contrasting boreal contributions, the Athabasca River at Athabasca displayed no overall trend in monthly or annual flows, but there was correspondence with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that contributed to a temporary flow decline from 1970 to 2000. These findings from century‐long records contrast with interpretations from numerous shorter‐term studies and emphasize the need for sufficient time series for hydrologic trend analyses. For Northern Hemisphere rivers, the study interval should be at least 80 years to span two Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycles and dampen the influence from phase transitions. Most prior trend analyses considered only a few decades, and this weakens interpretations of the hydrologic consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study on river discharge and salinity variability in the Middle Atlantic Bight and Long Island Sound

This study quantitatively characterizes annual, interannual, and decadal variability of Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) river discharges, MAB surface salinities, Long Island Sound (LIS) surface salinities, and LIS salinity stratification via wavelet analysis. Links among rivers, salinities, and standard climate indices are investigated through correlation analysis of the complete data records and low-pass time series (including periods greater than 1.5 years). All rivers and salinities analyzed have strong annual cycles that are distinguishable from random noise. All records have interannual power, but this variability is indistinguishable from the noise background. Some MAB rivers have significant multi-decadal power (near either 18-year or 26-year periods). Correlations are strong among MAB rivers, salinities at different shelf sections, and salinities at LIS stations. Negative correlations between MAB rivers and surface salinities account for a significant part of the observed variance: up to 29% for shelf salinities and 46% for LIS salinities. Shelf and estuary salinities are positively correlated; accounting for at most 61% of the variance. LIS salinity stratification is positively correlated with river discharge (up to 36% of the variance). Interannual variability exhibits similar statistical relationships with higher correlations. Average annual cycles indicate a 1–2-month sequential lag between peak river discharge, minimum estuary salinity, and minimum shelf salinity. Weak but significant correlations indicate a tendency for high discharge, low LIS salinity, and high LIS stratification to coincide with positive intervals of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.     

Classifying the flow regimes of Mediterranean streams using multivariate analysis

Rivers in the Mediterranean region often exhibit an intermittent character. An understanding and classification of the flow regimes of these rivers is needed, as flow patterns control both physicochemical and biological processes. This paper reports an attempt to classify flow regimes in Mediterranean rivers based on hydrological variables extracted from discharge time series. Long‐term discharge records from 60 rivers within the Mediterranean region were analysed in order to classify the streams into different flow regime groups. Hydrological indices (HIs) were derived for each stream and principal component analysis (PCA) and then applied to these indices to identify subsets of HIs describing the major sources of variations, while simultaneously minimizing redundancy. PCA was performed for two groups of streams (perennial and temporary) and for all streams combined. The results show that whereas perennial streams are mainly described by high‐flow indices, temporary streams are described by duration, variability and predictability indices. Agglomerative cluster analysis based on HIs identified six groups of rivers classified according to differences in intermittency and variability. A methodology allowing such a classification for ungauged catchments was also tested. Broad‐scale catchment characteristics based on digital elevation, climate, soil and land use data were derived for each long‐term station where these data were available. By using stepwise multiple regression analysis, statistically significant relationships were fitted, linking the three selected hydrological variables (mean annual number of zero‐flow days, predictability and flashiness) to the catchment characteristics. The method provides a means of simplifying the complexity of river systems and is thus useful for river basin management. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River ice cover influence on sediment transportation at present and under projected hydroclimatic conditions

A large number of rivers are frozen annually, and the river ice cover has an influence on the geomorphological processes. These processes in cohesive sediment rivers are not fully understood. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the impact of river ice cover on sediment transport, i.e. turbidity, suspended sediment loads and erosion potential, compared with a river with ice‐free flow conditions. The present sediment transportation conditions during the annual cycle are analysed, and the implications of climate change on wintertime geomorphological processes are estimated. A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Kokemäenjoki River in Southwest Finland. The shear stress forces directed to the river bed are simulated with present and projected hydroclimatic conditions. The results of shear stress simulations indicate that a thermally formed smooth ice cover diminishes river bed erosion, compared with an ice‐free river with similar discharges. Based on long‐term field data, the river ice cover reduces turbidity statistically significantly. Furthermore, suspended sediment concentrations measured in ice‐free and ice‐covered river water reveal a diminishing effect of ice cover on riverine sediment load. The hydrodynamic simulations suggest that the influence of rippled ice cover on shear stress is varying. Climate change is projected to increase the winter discharges by 27–77% on average by 2070–2099. Thus, the increasing winter discharges and possible diminishing ice cover periods both increase the erosion potential of the river bed. Hence, the wintertime sediment load of the river is expected to become larger in the future. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Increasing discharge from the Mackenzie River system to the Arctic Ocean

The Mackenzie River, Canada's longest and largest river system, provides the greatest Western Hemisphere discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Recent reports of declining flows have prompted concern because (1) this influences Arctic Ocean salinity, stratification and polar ice; (2) a major tributary, the Peace River, has large hydroelectric projects, and further dams are proposed; and (3) the system includes the extensive and biodiverse Peace–Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie deltas. To assess hydrological trends over the past century that could reflect climate change, we analysed historic patterns of river discharges. We expanded the data series by infilling for short gaps, calculating annual discharges from early summer‐only records (typical r² > 0.9), coordinating data from sequential hydrometric gauges (requiring r² > 0.8) and advancing the data to 2013. For trend detection, Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to non‐parametric Kendall's τ and Spearman's ρ tests. There was no overall pattern for annual flows of the most southerly Athabasca River (1913–2013), while the adjacent, regulated Peace River displayed increasing flows (1916–2013, p < 0.05). These rivers combine to form the Slave River, which did not display an overall trend (1917–2013). The more northerly, free‐flowing Liard River is the largest tributary and displayed increasing annual flows (1944–2013, p < 0.01, ~3.5% per decade) because of increasing winter, spring, and summer flows, and annual maximum and minimum flows also increased. Following from the tributary contributions, the Mackenzie River flows gradually increased (Fort Simpson 1939–2013, p < 0.05, ~1.5% per decade), but the interannual patterns for the Liard and other rivers were correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, complicating the pattern. This conclusion of increasing river flows to the Arctic Ocean contrasts with some prior reports, based on shorter time series. The observed flow increase is consistent with increasing discharges of the large Eurasian Arctic drainages, suggesting a common northern response to climate change. Analyses of historic trends are strengthened with lengthening records, and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation influence, we recommend century‐long records for northern rivers. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ENSO and the natural variability in the flow of tropical rivers

This paper examines the relationship between the annual discharges of the Amazon, Congo, Paran á, and Nile rivers and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Since river systems are comprehensive integrators of rainfall over large areas, accurate characterization of the flow regimes in major rivers will increase our understanding of large-scale global atmospheric dynamics. Results of this study reveal that the annual discharges of two large equatorial tropical rivers, the Amazon and the Congo, are weakly and negatively correlated with the equatorial Pacific SST anomalies with 10% of the variance in annual discharge explained by ENSO. Two smaller subtropical rivers, the Nile and the Paraná, show a correlation that is stronger by about a factor of 2. The Nile discharge is negatively correlated with the SST anomaly, whereas the Paraná river discharge shows a positive relation. The tendency for reduced rainfall/discharge over large tropical convection zones in the ENSO warm phase is attributed to global scale subsidence associated with major upwelling in the eastern Pacific Ocean.     

Observed advantage for negative binomial over Poisson distribution in partial duration series

The goodness of fit of the negative binomial and the Poisson distributions to partial duration series of runoff events is tested. The data have been recorded by eight hydrometric stations located on ephemeral rivers in Isreal. For each station, a number of threshold discharges are considered, by that series of nested subsamples are formed. Owing to size limitations, a Chi-square test is conducted on samples associated with low to moderate threshold discharges. Positive results, at a 5% significance level, are obtained in 30 out of the 53 tests of the Poisson distribution, and in 22 out of the 28 tests of the negative binomial distribution. The fit of the Poisson distribution to samples of conventionally recommended sizes (of 2 to 3 events per year) is found positive for five rivers and negative for the three other rivers The fit of the negative binomial distribution to these samples is found positive for six rivers, inconclusive for one river and short of data for the eighth river. Mixed results are obtained as the threshold level is raised. Therefore, no direct extrapolation is possible to samples associated with high thresholds.An indirect extrapolation is drawn through a comparison of the actual properties of the samples with those expected under a perfect fit of the distribution functions. Ranges of such properties are defined with respect to the properties of the tested samples and to the test results. The actual properties of nine of the eleven samples associated with high thresholds (i.e. mean number of events <-0.1year ^–1) are found within these ranges. This provides a hint for a probable good fit of either distribution, and particularly the negative binomial, to the occurrence frequency of high events.     

Observed advantage for negative binomial over Poisson distribution in partial duration series

The goodness of fit of the negative binomial and the Poisson distributions to partial duration series of runoff events is tested. The data have been recorded by eight hydrometric stations located on ephemeral rivers in Isreal. For each station, a number of threshold discharges are considered, by that series of nested subsamples are formed. Owing to size limitations, a Chi-square test is conducted on samples associated with low to moderate threshold discharges. Positive results, at a 5% significance level, are obtained in 30 out of the 53 tests of the Poisson distribution, and in 22 out of the 28 tests of the negative binomial distribution. The fit of the Poisson distribution to samples of conventionally recommended sizes (of 2 to 3 events per year) is found positive for five rivers and negative for the three other rivers The fit of the negative binomial distribution to these samples is found positive for six rivers, inconclusive for one river and short of data for the eighth river. Mixed results are obtained as the threshold level is raised. Therefore, no direct extrapolation is possible to samples associated with high thresholds.An indirect extrapolation is drawn through a comparison of the actual properties of the samples with those expected under a perfect fit of the distribution functions. Ranges of such properties are defined with respect to the properties of the tested samples and to the test results. The actual properties of nine of the eleven samples associated with high thresholds (i.e. mean number of events <-0.1year ^–1) are found within these ranges. This provides a hint for a probable good fit of either distribution, and particularly the negative binomial, to the occurrence frequency of high events.     

Spatial and temporal variance of river discharge on Okinawa (Japan): inferring the temporal impact on adjacent coral reefs.

Land-use changes and associated river discharges in coastal tropical regions present a global threat to coral reef environments. This study investigated the temporal variation in biological oxygen demand (BOD5) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) at the mouths of seven rivers on Okinawa Island (Japan) over 20 years. We report strong positive relationships between human population densities within river catchment areas and both average BOD5 concentration (r2 = 0.968; p < 0.001) and SPM (r2 = 0.659; p < 0.003) at the mouths of the rivers. At the reef adjacent to one river (Hija River, 50.2 km2 catchment area) we applied moving window analysis to assess an optimal sampling strategy for elucidating transitional boundaries in coral composition from the river mouth to a point where the effect of river discharge was minimal. The optimal window width for Okinawan rivers was five 1 m2 quadrats spaced over 5 m intervals. This sampling strategy clearly showed dissimilarity spikes in coral community composition up to 400 m from the Hija River mouth, beyond which no significant differences in coral composition were detected using analysis of similarities (ANOSIM). We developed a simple diffusion model linking the rivers' maximum discharge rate, and the average concentration of BOD5 and SPM with the spatial impact on the coral communities. The diffusion model can aid in predicting negative shifts in coral communities expected to result from detrimental land-use changes and is an important tool for monitoring coral reefs.     

Variability in the discharge of South American rivers and in climate / Variabilité des débits de rivières d'Amérique du Sud et du climat

Abstract

Changes in trend and quasi-periodicities are sought in the time series of river discharges in all major South American basins. The relationship between trends and quasi-periodicities found and climate variations on interannual and longer time scales are discussed. Consideration of multiple rivers gives insight into the geographical extent of hydrological signals and climate impacts. It is found that the streamflow of all major rivers of South America has experienced an increased trend since the early 1970s. It is suggested that this simultaneity may reflect the impact of a large-scale climate change. All the time series of river streamflows that were analysed show El Niño-like periodicities. Only for La Plata Basin do these explain a larger part of the total variance than the other quasi-periodicities. There are two other quasi-oscillations in the time series analysed: one of them with a longer period—around 17 years—and the other of about 9 years. Previous work has related these oscillations to sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean.     

Modelling hydrological connectivity of tropical floodplain wetlands via a combined natural and artificial stream network

The ecological condition and biodiversity values of floodplain wetlands are highly dependent on the hydrological connectivity of wetlands to adjacent rivers. This paper describes a method for quantifying connectivity between floodplain wetlands and the main rivers in a wet tropical catchment of northern Australia. We used a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate time‐varying water depths across the stream network (i.e. rivers, streams and man‐made drains). The timing and duration of connectivity of seven wetlands (four natural and three artificial) with the two main rivers in the catchment were then calculated for different hydrological conditions. Location and areal extent of the wetlands and the stream network were identified using high‐resolution laser altimetry, and these data formed key inputs to the hydrodynamic model. The model was calibrated using measured water depths and discharges across the floodplain. An algorithm was developed to identify contiguous water bodies at daily time steps, and this gave the temporal history of connection and disconnection between wetlands and the rivers. Simulation results show that connectivity of individual wetlands to both rivers varies from 26 to 365 days during an average hydrological condition. Location, especially proximity to a main river, and wetland type (natural stream or artificial drain) were identified as key factors influencing these levels of connectivity. Some natural wetlands maintain connection with the river for most or all of the year, whereas the connectivity of some artificial wetlands varies from 26 to 36 days according to their patterns of network connection to adjacent rivers – a result that has important implications for the accessibility of these types of wetland to aquatic biota. Using readily available river gauge data, we also show how connectivity modelling can be used to identify periods when connectivity has fallen below critical thresholds for fish movement. These connectivity patterns within the floodplain network are central to the setting of river flows that will meet environmental requirements for biota that use floodplain wetlands during their life history. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrologic history of the Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers based upon a refined specific‐gauge approach

A refined specific‐gauge approach was developed to quantify changes over time in hydrological response on 3260 km of the Mississippi River system using long‐term data observed at 67 hydrologic measurement stations. Of these stations, 49 were unrated (stage‐only) stations, for which over 2 000 000 ‘synthetic discharges’ were generated based on measured discharge values at nearby rated stations. The addition of these synthetic discharges nearly tripled the number of stations in the study area for which specific‐gauge analysis could be performed. In order to maintain spatial homogeneity across such a broad study area, discharges were normalized to multiples of mean daily flow (MDF). Specific‐gauge analysis calculates stage changes over time for invariant discharge conditions. Two discharges were analysed: low‐flow and flood conditions at each station. In order to avoid the large errors associated with extrapolation of annual rating curves, a new ‘enhanced interpolation’ technique was developed that calculates continuous specific‐stage time series, even for rare discharges. Thus enhanced, specific‐gauge analysis is a useful reconnaissance tool for detecting geomorphic and hydrologic trends over time. Results show that on the Middle Mississippi River and Lower Missouri River, flood stages increased at all stations in spite of widespread incision of the river bed. On the Lower Mississippi River, both low‐flow and flood stages decreased, mainly the result of artificial meander cutoffs in the late 1920s and 1930s, except downstream of Natchez, MS, where net aggradation was observed. On the Upper Mississippi River, the specific‐gauge trends were dominated by emplacement of navigational dams and impoundment of slackwater pools. On all four river reaches, these results document hydrologic responses to the different engineering toolkits used on the different portions of the Mississippi River system during the past 75–150 years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gravel‐bed river evolution in earthquake‐prone regions subject to cycled hydrographs and repeated sediment pulses

Sediment often enters rivers in the form of sediment pulses associated with landslides and debris flows. This is particularly so in gravel‐bed rivers in earthquake‐prone mountain regions, such as Southwest China. Under such circumstances, sediment pulses can rapidly change river topography and leave the river in repeated states of gradual recovery. In this paper, we implement a one‐dimensional morphodynamic model of river response to pulsed sediment supply. The model is validated using data from flume experiments, so demonstrating that it can successfully reproduce the overall morphodynamics of experimental pulses. The model is then used to explore the evolution of a gravel‐bed river subject to cycled hydrographs and repeated sediment pulses. These pulses are fed into the channel in a fixed region centered at a point halfway down the calculational domain. The pulsed sediment supply is in addition to a constant sediment supply at the upstream end. Results indicate that the river can reach a mobile‐bed equilibrium in which two regions exist within which bed elevation and surface grain size distribution vary periodically in time. One of these is at the upstream end, where a periodic discharge hydrograph and constant sediment supply are imposed, and the other is in a region about halfway down the channel where periodic sediment pulses are introduced. Outside these two regions, bed elevation and surface grain size distribution reach a mobile‐bed equilibrium that is invariant in time. The zone of fluctuation‐free mobile‐bed equilibrium upstream of the pulse region is not affected by repeated sediment pulses under the scenarios tested, but downstream of the pulse region, the channel reaches different fluctuation‐free mobile‐bed equilibriums under different sediment pulse scenarios. The vertical bed structure predicted by the simulations indicates that the cyclic variation associated with the hydrograph and sediment pulses can affect the substrate stratigraphy to some depth. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating the necessary duration of observation period in studying winter river runoff

A procedure for determining the minimal representative observation period at hydrological gages is proposed as required for studying the regularities in river runoff formation in rivers in the drainage basin of the Votkinsk Reservoir. Data of hydrological gages with long observational series were used as an example to show, by the division of these series into intervals and analysis of the obtained deviations from long-term mean values, that such minimal period can be taken to be 40 years long.     

Modeling discharge rating curves with Bayesian B-splines

River discharges are traditionally modeled by employing a standard power-law methodology. Recently, the Bayesian approached has successfully been applied to improve the estimates of the standard power-law. In this article, an extension to the standard power-law based on Bayesian B-splines is developed and tested on data sets from 61 different rivers. The extended model is evaluated against the standard power-law using two measures, the Deviance Information Criterion and Bayes factor. The extended model captures deviations in the data from the standard power-law but reduces to the standard power-law when that model is adequate. The standard power-law is inadequate for 26% of the rivers while the extended model provides an adequate fit in all of those cases and for the remaining 74% of the rivers the extended model and the power-law model both give adequate fit with almost identical estimates.     

Long term sediment transport simulation of the Danube,Sava, and Tisa rivers

The aim of this paper is to evaluate a newly developed one dimensional unsteady flow, sediment transport and bed evolution model for a looped river network through a long term simulation of a real-life scenario. The model was assessed by verifying it for the Danube, Tisa, and Sava rivers in Serbia for a five year time interval. The total length of the modeled domain was 741.94 km from which 486.48 km is the length of the modeled Danube River reach, 132.50 km the modeled section of the Sava and 122.96 km the length of the modeled Tisa River reach. The simulated domain included smaller tributaries such as the Kolubara, Mlava, Nera, Pek, Porecka, Tamis, and Great Morava rivers. Due to the size of the domain that was included in the model, the work also includes extensive research regarding the available measurements, issues with measurement errors, and suggestions on overcoming incomplete measurements by developing different types of correlations. The attained results were analyzed by comparing the simulation results with measured water levels, discharges, and suspended sediment concentrations. The implemented evaluation of the results confirmed the developed model's reliability.     

Hydrodynamic characterization of the Arcachon Bay,using model-derived descriptors

A numerical model (MARS-2D) was developed, with the aim of describing the hydrodynamics that prevail in Arcachon Bay. Direct model results as well as derived mixing and transport time-scales (tidal prism, local and integrated flushing times, age of water masses), were used to understand the behaviour of water masses and exchanges between the Bay and its frontiers. Particular attention was paid to the processes that drive the hydrodynamics (tides, wind and rivers), in order to understand their respective influence.The Arcachon Bay hydrodynamic system appears primarily to be highly influenced by tides; secondarily, by winds. About two third of the lagoon total volume is flushed in and out at each tidal cycle, which represent a mean tidal prism of 384 millions of cubic meters. The percentage of seawater flushed out during the ebb, that returns into the lagoon during the following flood flow is very high (return flow factor=0.95). This pattern leads to calculated integrated flushing times (IFT) ranging from 12.8 to 15.9 days, respectively, for the winter 2001 and summer 2005 simulations (two contrasting climatological situations: in summer, light northwesterly winds and low discharges in the rivers and, in winter, stronger southwesterly winds and higher river flows). Moreover, it has been found that northerly and westerly winds tend to reduce the flushing time, whilst southerly and easterly winds tend to hinder the renewal of the water in the Bay. The behaviour of the waters originating from the two main rivers of the lagoon, was studied also by means of the mean age assessment, under varying conditions of river flow and wind regime.     

Measuring ecological change of aquatic macrophytes in Mediterranean rivers

A metric was developed for assessing anthropogenic impacts on aquatic macrophyte ecology by scoring macrophyte species along the main gradient of community change. A measure of ecological quality was then calculated by Weighted Averaging (WA) of these species scores at a monitoring site, and comparison to a reference condition score. This metric was used to illustrate the difficulties of developing aquatic macrophyte indices based on indicator species in Mediterranean rivers. The response of the metric to a nutrient gradient was examined within two different river typologies: the national typology designed for the Water Framework Directive and a typology that segregates the environmental variables to produce maximum species similarity within a river type. Both typologies showed the strong north-south climatic divide in Portugal, with southern rivers having long periods without rainfall and often without flowing water in the summer. Overall, the metric responded well to nutrient impacts however it performed poorly in some southern lowland river types. This was thought to be due to low numbers of aquatic macrophytes in temporary rivers. Non-aquatic species that establish in the river channel of temporary rivers may have to be included in indices to improve performance. Also, simple Weighted Averaging (WA) metrics may be insensitive to abundance changes and loss of rarer indicators in lowland Mediterranean rivers. More sophisticated methods of using WA are suggested, as well as further research into developing assessment methods specific to the character of Mediterranean rivers.