Cancer risk analysis and assessment of trihalomethanes in drinking water

This study conducts risk assessment for an array of health effects that may result from exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs). An analysis of the relationship between exposure and health-related outcomes is conducted. The trihalomethanes (THMs) species have been verified as the principal DBPs in the drinking water disinfection process. The data used in this study was collected from the Taiwan Water Corporation (TWC) from 1998 to 2002. Statistical analysis, multistage of Benchmark model, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and sensitive analysis were used to estimate the cancer risk analysis and assessment. This study included the statistical data analysis, epidemiology investigation and cancer risk assessment of THMs species in drinking water in Taiwan. It is more significant to establish an assessment procedure for the decision making in policy of drinking water safety predominantly.     

Analysis of bacterial diversity and metals in produced water, seawater and sediments from an offshore oil and gas production platform

Produced water is one of the largest waste products routinely discharged into the ocean from offshore oil and gas platforms. This study analyzed bacterial communities and metals in the produced water, surrounding seawater, and sediment around the Thebaud platform. The bacterial community within the produced water was different from the seawater (SAB = 13.3), but the discharge had no detectable effect on the bacterial communities in the seawater (SAB > 97). In contrast, genomic analysis of sediments revealed that the bacterial community from 250 m was different (SAB = 70) from other locations further from the discharge, suggesting that the produced water had a detectable effect on the bacterial community in the sediment closest to the discharge. These near-field sediments contained elevated concentrations of manganese and iron that are associated with the produced water effluent. The results suggested that the discharge of produced water has influenced the bacterial community structure of sediments adjacent to the platform.     

Development of a laboratory exposure system using marine fish to carry out realistic effect studies with produced water discharged from offshore oil production

A biotest system for environmentally realistic exposure of fish to produced water (PW) was developed and tested. Authentic PW was collected at an oil production platform in the North Sea and preserved by freezing in multiple aliquots a 25 L. After transport to the test laboratory onshore, daily PW aliquots were thawed, homogenised and administered to the test fish, Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), in two diluted exposure concentrations, 0.1% and 0.5%, during a 15 d period, using a continuous flow-through exposure setup. Positive control groups were exposed to two crude oil treatments for comparison. Chemical analyses showed that alkylphenol (AP) and PAH concentrations in PW exposure waters were very low. Observations of significantly increased AP and PAH metabolite levels in PW exposed fish demonstrated the suitability of the biotest system for its use in biological exposure/effect studies of PW, and it also demonstrated the sensitivity of bile metabolites as PW exposure markers in fish. The relevance of the biotest system for PW effect studies and for validating modelled environmental risk estimates of PW dischargers from offshore oil production is discussed.     

Probabilistic risk and uncertainty analysis for bioremediation of four chlorinated ethenes in groundwater

Groundwater contamination risk assessment for health-threatening compounds should benefit from a stochastic environmental risk assessment which considers the effects of biological, chemical, human behavioral, and physiological processes that involve elements of biotic and abiotic aquifer uncertainty, and human population variability. This paper couples a complex model of chemical degradation and transformation with movement in an aquifer undergoing bioremediation to generate a health risk analysis for different population cohorts in the community. A two-stage Monte Carlo simulation has separate stages for population variability and aquifer uncertainty yielding a computationally efficient and conceptually attractive algorithm. A hypothetical example illustrates how risk variance analysis can be conducted to determine the distribution of risk, and the relative impact of uncertainty and variability in different sets of parameters upon the variation of risk values for adults, adolescents, and children. The groundwater example considers a community water supply contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. Biodegradation pathways are enhanced by addition of butyrate. The results showed that the contribution of uncertainty to the risk variance is comparable to that of variability. Among the uncertain parameters considered, transmissivity accounted for the major part of the output variance. Children were the most susceptible and vulnerable population cohort.     

Integrated biomarker assessment of the effects exerted by treated produced water from an onshore natural gas processing plant in the North Sea on the mussel Mytilus edulis

The biological impact of a treated produced water (PW) was investigated under controlled laboratory conditions in the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis. Mussel health status was assessed using an integrated biomarker approach in combination with chemical analysis of both water (with SPMDs), and mussel tissues. Acyl-CoA oxidase activity, neutral lipid accumulation, catalase activity, micronuclei formation, lysosomal membrane stability in digestive cells and haemocytes, cell-type composition in digestive gland epithelium, and the integrity of the digestive gland tissue were measured after 5 week exposure to 0%, 0.01%, 0.1%, 0.5% and 1% PW. The suite of biomarkers employed were sensitive to treated PW exposure with significant sublethal responses found at 0.01-0.5% PW, even though individual chemical compounds of PW were at extremely low concentrations in both water and mussel tissues. The study highlights the benefits of an integrated biomarker approach for determining the potential effects of exposure to complex mixtures at low concentrations. Biomarkers were integrated in the Integrative Biological Response (IBR/n) index.     

Stochastic multimedia risk assessment for a site with contaminated groundwater

 There exist many sites with contaminated groundwater because of inappropriate handling or disposal of hazardous materials or wastes. Health risk assessment is an important tool to evaluate the potential environmental and health impacts of these contaminated sites. It is also becoming an important basis for determining whether risk reduction is needed and what actions should be initiated. However, in research related to groundwater risk assessment and management, consideration of multimedia risk assessment and the separation of the uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and the variability due to natural heterogeneity are rare. This study presents a multimedia risk assessment framework with the integration of multimedia transfer and multi-pathway exposure of groundwater contaminants, and investigates whether multimedia risk assessment and the separation of uncertainty and variability can provide a better basis for risk management decisions. The results of the case study show that a decision based on multimedia risk assessment may differ from one based on risk resulting from groundwater only. In particular, the transfer from groundwater to air imposes a health threat to some degree. By using a methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation, a rank correlation coefficient, and an explicit decision criterion to identify information important to the decision, the results obtained when uncertainty and variability are separate differ from the ones without such separation. In particular, when higher percentiles of uncertainty and variability distributions are considered, the method separating uncertainty and variability identifies TCE concentration as the single most important input parameter, while the method that does not distinguish the two identifies four input parameters as the important information that would influence a decision on risk reduction.     

Calibration and identifiability analysis of a water quality model to evaluate the contribution of different processes to the short-term dynamics of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients in the surface water of a rural catchment

A method that combines calibration and identifiability analysis of a dynamic water quality model to evaluate the relative importance of various processes affecting the dynamic aspects of water composition is illustrated by a study of the response of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients to a flood hydrograph in a rural catchment area in the Netherlands. Since the water quality model simulates the observed concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients reasonably well, the most important processes during the observed flood hydrograph could be determined. These were erosion, exchange between dissolved phase and bed sediments and denitrification. It is concluded that the method is very useful for identifying the most significant model parameters and processes that are essential for water quality modelling. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uptake and tissue distribution of C4-C7 alkylphenols in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua): relevance for biomonitoring of produced water discharges from oil production

The sensitivity of different tissues for assessment of chronic low-dose environmental exposure of fish to alkylphenols (APs) was investigated. We exposed Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the laboratory to tritium labelled 4-tert-butylphenol, 4n-pentylphenol, 4n-hexylphenol, and 4n-heptylphenol via seawater (8 ng/l) and via contaminated feed (5 μg/kg fish per day). Measurements of different fish tissues during eight days of exposure and eight subsequent days of recovery revealed that APs administered via spiked seawater were readily taken up whereas the uptake was far less efficient when APs were administered in spiked feed. AP residues were mainly located in the bile fluid whereas the concentrations in liver were very low, indicating a rapid excretion and the liver-bile axis to be the major route of elimination. The biological half-life of APs in the exposed cod was short, between 10 and 20 h. Our study shows that in connection with biomonitoring of AP exposure in fish, assessment of AP metabolites in bile fluid is a more sensitive tool than detection of parent AP levels in liver or other internal tissues.     

Random Monte Carlo simulation analysis and risk assessment for ammonia concentrations in wastewater effluent disposal

High concentrations of ammonia in a river can cause fish kills and harms to other aquatic organisms. A simple water quality model is needed to predict the probability of ammonia concentration violations as compared to the US Environmental Protection Agencys ammonia criteria. A spreadsheet with Random Monte Carlo (RMC) simulations to model ammonia concentrations at the mixing point (between a river and the effluent of a wastewater treatment plant) was developed with the use of Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball add-in software. The model uses effluent and river ammonia, alkalinity, and total carbonate data to determine the probability density functions (PDFs) for the Monte Carlo simulations. Normal, lognormal, exponential and uniform probability distributions were tested using the Chi-square method and p-value associated with it to choose the best fit to the random data selected from the East Burlington wastewater treatment plant in North Carolina and the Clinch River in Tennessee. It is suggested that different options be tested with a minimum of three classes and a maximum of n/5 classes (n = number of data points) and the highest probability (p-value) for the PDF being tested be chosen. The results indicted that six violations to the EPA criterion for maximum concentration (CMC) were predicted when using 2000 RMC simulations and PDFs fitted to the available data, which violate the current criterion of no more than one violation over 3 years. All violations occur when the pH of the blend ranges from 8.0 to 9.0. No violations were found to the criteria of chronic concentration (CCC) using RMC.     

A preliminary assessment of the spatial sources of contemporary suspended sediment in the Ohio River basin,United States,using water quality data from the NASQAN programme in a source tracing procedure

Reliable information on catchment scale suspended sediment sources is required to inform the design of management strategies for helping abate the numerous environmental issues associated with enhanced sediment mobilization and off‐site loadings. Since sediment fingerprinting techniques avoid many of the logistical constraints associated with using more traditional indirect measurement methods at catchment scale, such approaches have been increasingly reported in the international literature and typically use data sets collected specifically for sediment source apportionment purposes. There remains scope for investigating the potential for using geochemical data sets assembled by routine monitoring programmes to fingerprint sediment provenance. In the United States, routine water quality samples are collected as part of the US Geological Survey's revised National Stream Quality Accounting Network programme. Accordingly, the geochemistry data generated from these samples over a 10‐year period (1996–2006) were used as the basis for a fingerprinting exercise to assess the key tributary sub‐catchment spatial sources of contemporary suspended sediment transported by the Ohio River. Uncertainty associated with the spatial source estimates was quantified using a Monte Carlo approach in conjunction with mass balance modelling. Relative frequency weighted means were used as an alternative way of summarizing the spatial source contributions, thereby avoiding the need to use confidence limits. The results should be interpreted in the context of the routine, but infrequent nature, of the suspended sediment samples used to assemble geochemistry as a basis for the sourcing exercise. Nonetheless, the study demonstrates how routine monitoring samples can be used to provide some preliminary information on sediment provenance in large drainage basins. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new risk assessment method for water quality degradation in harbour domains, using hydrodynamic models

This contribution presents a method for assessing the risk of water degradation in harbour domains. The method describes a normalized Index of Risk, ranging from 0 to 1, which determines the risk of water degradation due to a pollution event. A branch-decision scheme of decision-making theories was implemented in order to obtain this index. This method evaluates the cost of each decision as a function of the vulnerability, proximity and toxicity of the potential contaminant. A novel feature of this method is that the risk is defined by considering the physical behaviour of the harbour (i.e. water circulation patterns). Regions where water residence time is high are considered more vulnerable to pollutant releases. This method could be implemented from an operational perspective, in which case an oceanographic operational system could be used to obtain current forecasts which in turn would be used to forecast risk maps.     

PAH body burden and biomarker responses in mussels (Mytilus edulis) exposed to produced water from a North Sea oil field: laboratory and field assessments

In order to study the impact of produced water (PW) from a North Sea oil field on blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), chemical and biological markers were selected. A laboratory exposure (0.125%, 0.25% and 0.5% of PW) and a field study (6 stations 0.2-2 km from a PW discharge point) were conducted. In the laboratory study, PAH bioaccumulation increased in mussel soft tissue even at the lowest exposure dose. Micronuclei frequency demonstrated a dose-response pattern, whereas lysosomal membrane stability showed tendency towards a dose-response pattern. The same markers were assessed in the field study, biomarker analyses were consistent with the contamination level, as evaluated by mussel polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons body burden. Overall, obtained results confirmed the value of an ecotoxicological approach for a scientifically sound characterisation of biological effects induced by offshore oilfield operational discharges.     

Simulation-based risk assessment of contaminated sites under remediation scenarios, planning periods, and land-use patterns—a Canadian case study

Risk assessment of contaminated sites is crucial for quantifying adverse impacts on human health and the environment. It also provides effective decision support for remediation and management of such sites. This study presents an integrated approach for environmental and health risk assessment of subsurface contamination through the incorporation of a multiphase multicomponent modeling system within a general risk assessment framework. The method is applied to a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Three remediation scenarios with different efficiencies (0, 60, and 90%) and planning periods (10, 20, 40, 60, and 80 years later) are examined for each of the five potential land-use plans of the study site. Then three risky zones with different temporal and spatial distributions are identified based on the local environmental guidelines and the excess lifetime cancer risk criteria. The obtained results are useful for assessing potential human health effects when the groundwater is used for drinking water supply. They are also critical for evaluating environmental impacts when the groundwater is used for irrigation, stockbreeding, fish culture, or when the site remains the status quo. Moreover, the results indicate that the proposed method can effectively identify risky zones with different risk levels under various remediation actions, planning periods, and land-use patterns.     

河流支流入汇口处水利工程防洪设计水位研究:以珠江流域西江桂平航运枢纽为例

修建在河流支流入汇口处的水利工程,同时受干、支流洪水共同作用,其防洪水位不但与洪水组合特性有关,还与洪水、水利工程行洪的耦合关系有关.已有采用设计洪水重现期对应的特征洪水组合,或者直接采用经验洪水组合进行调洪计算得到防洪设计水位的方法无法有效反映洪水与水利工程的相互作用.本文结合防洪标准的本质,利用Copula-蒙特卡罗模拟方法对修建在支流入汇口处的水利工程的防洪设计水位进行计算,并以珠江流域西江支流郁江广西桂平航运枢纽水闸为例展开研究.结果表明:Copula-蒙特卡罗模拟方法可以有效考虑干、支流洪水组合特性及其与水利工程行洪的耦合关系,以其计算得到的防洪设计水位唯一且可保证达到防洪标准的要求,可有效克服利用洪水重现期确定防洪设计水位存在的不确定性;在干、支流洪水共同作用下,以设计洪水重现期的不同特征组合计算得到的防洪设计水位相差非常大,且与达到防洪标准要求的防洪设计水位相比完全偏离了合理的误差范围,不宜以设计洪水重现期确定防洪设计水位;利用经验洪水组合计算难以合理反映不同工程的洪水及工程特性.研究成果可为修建在支流入汇口处受干、支流洪水共同影响的水利工程防洪设计提供更合理的理论依据和...     

A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency analysis

Flood frequency analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the local streamflow series. However, when the local data series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. Regional frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce the estimation uncertainty. In this work, we propose a regional Bayesian model for short record length sites. This model is less restrictive than the index flood model while preserving the formalism of “homogeneous regions”. The performance of the proposed model is assessed on a set of gauging stations in France. The accuracy of quantile estimates as a function of the degree of homogeneity of the pooling group is also analysed. The results indicate that the regional Bayesian model outperforms the index flood model and local estimators. Furthermore, it seems that working with relatively large and homogeneous regions may lead to more accurate results than working with smaller and highly homogeneous regions.     

Quantitative microbial risk assessment: uncertainty and measures of central tendency for skewed distributions

In the past, arithmetic and geometric means have both been used to characterise pathogen densities in samples used for microbial risk assessment models. The calculation of total (annual) risk is based on cumulative independent (daily) exposures and the use of an exponential dose–response model, such as that used for exposure to Giardia or Cryptosporidium. Mathematical analysis suggests that the arithmetic mean is the appropriate measure of central tendency for microbial concentration with respect to repeated samples of daily exposure in risk assessment. This is despite frequent characterisation of microbial density by the geometric mean, since the microbial distributions may be Log normal or skewed in nature. Mathematical derivation supporting the use of the arithmetic mean has been based on deterministic analysis, prior assumptions and definitions, the use of point-estimates of probability, and has not included from the outset the influence of an actual distribution for microbial densities. We address these issues by experiments using two real-world pathogen datasets, together with Monte Carlo simulation, and it is revealed that the arithmetic mean also holds in the case of a daily dose with a finite distribution in microbial density, even when the distribution is very highly-skewed, as often occurs in environmental samples. Further, for simplicity, in many risk assessment models, the daily infection risk is assumed to be the same for each day of the year and is represented by a single value, which is then used in the calculation of p _Σ, which is a numerical estimate of annual risk, P _Σ, and we highlight the fact that is simply a function of the geometric mean of the daily complementary risk probabilities (although it is sometimes approximated by the arithmetic mean of daily risk in the low dose case). Finally, the risk estimate is an imprecise probability with no indication of error and we investigate and clarify the distinction between risk and uncertainty assessment with respect to the predictive model used for total risk assessment.     

The effects of prolonged darkness on temperate and tropical marine phytoplankton, and their implications for ballast water risk management

Phytoplankton assemblages from tropical (Goa) and temperate (UK) locations were exposed to a 28 day dark period, followed by a period of re-exposure to light. During this time phytoplankton survival and changes in nutrient concentrations were mapped. The tropical plankton water samples showed high nutrient levels after the dark period which were utilised by cells during the re-exposure period. UK experiments looked at the effect of three different water types on population recovery after the 28 day dark period, and differences due to seasonal effects.The population growth observed during the re-exposure period in the tropical population was comparable to that of the temperate population. Water type affected recovery and of the three tested media fresh seawater promoted the highest levels of growth. Seasonality had a significant influence on species survival. Understanding the effects of all these factors can aid the development of effective risk assessments in ballast water management.     

Probabilistic permanent fault displacement hazard via Monte Carlo simulation and its consideration for the probabilistic risk assessment of buried continuous steel pipelines

Permanent fault displacements (PFDs) because of fault ruptures emerging at the surface are critical for seismic design and risk assessment of continuous pipelines. They impose significant compressive and tensile strains to the pipe cross‐section at pipe‐fault crossings. The complexity of fault rupture, inaccurate mapping of fault location and uncertainties in fault‐pipe crossing geometries require probabilistic approaches for assessing the PFD hazard and mitigating pipeline failure risk against PFD. However, the probabilistic approaches are currently waived in seismic design of pipelines. Bearing on these facts, this paper first assesses the probabilistic PFD hazard by using Monte Carlo‐based stochastic simulations whose theory and implementation are given in detail. The computed hazard is then used in the probabilistic risk assessment approach to calculate the failure probability of continuous pipelines under different PFD levels as well as pipe cross‐section properties. Our probabilistic pipeline risk computations consider uncertainties arising from complex fault rupture and geomorphology that result in inaccurate mapping of fault location and fault‐pipe crossings. The results presented in this paper suggest the re‐evaluation of design provisions in current pipeline design guidelines to reduce the seismic risk of these geographically distributed structural systems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment in water budgets simulated by the variable infiltration capacity model for Canadian subarctic watersheds

In this study, we evaluate uncertainties propagated through different climate data sets in seasonal and annual hydrological simulations over 10 subarctic watersheds of northern Manitoba, Canada, using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Further, we perform a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the VIC model using a robust and state-of-the-art approach. The VIC model simulations utilize the recently developed variogram analysis of response surfaces (VARS) technique that requires in this application more than 6,000 model simulations for a 30-year (1981–2010) study period. The method seeks parameter sensitivity, identifies influential parameters, and showcases streamflow sensitivity to parameter uncertainty at seasonal and annual timescales. Results suggest that the Ensemble VIC simulations match observed streamflow closest, whereas global reanalysis products yield high flows (0.5–3.0 mm day⁻¹) against observations and an overestimation (10–60%) in seasonal and annual water balance terms. VIC parameters exhibit seasonal importance in VARS, and the choice of input data and performance metrics substantially affect sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty propagation due to input forcing selection in each water balance term (i.e., total runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration) is examined separately to show both time and space dimensionality in available forcing data at seasonal and annual timescales. Reliable input forcing, the most influential model parameters, and the uncertainty envelope in streamflow prediction are presented for the VIC model. These results, along with some specific recommendations, are expected to assist the broader VIC modelling community and other users of VARS and land surface schemes, to enhance their modelling applications.     

A coupled model for simulating surface water and groundwater interactions in coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands are characterized by strong, dynamic interactions between surface water and groundwater. This paper presents a coupled model that simulates interacting surface water and groundwater flow and solute transport processes in these wetlands. The coupled model is based on two existing (sub) models for surface water and groundwater, respectively: ELCIRC (a three‐dimensional (3‐D) finite‐volume/finite‐difference model for simulating shallow water flow and solute transport in rivers, estuaries and coastal seas) and SUTRA (a 3‐D finite‐element/finite‐difference model for simulating variably saturated, variable‐density fluid flow and solute transport in porous media). Both submodels, using compatible unstructured meshes, are coupled spatially at the common interface between the surface water and groundwater bodies. The surface water level and solute concentrations computed by the ELCIRC model are used to determine the boundary conditions of the SUTRA‐based groundwater model at the interface. In turn, the groundwater model provides water and solute fluxes as inputs for the continuity equations of surface water flow and solute transport to account for the mass exchange across the interface. Additionally, flux from the seepage face was routed instantaneously to the nearest surface water cell according to the local sediment surface slope. With an external coupling approach, these two submodels run in parallel using time steps of different sizes. The time step (Δt_g) for the groundwater model is set to be larger than that (Δt_s) used by the surface water model for computational efficiency: Δt_g = M × Δt_s where M is an integer greater than 1. Data exchange takes place between the two submodels through a common database at synchronized times (e.g. end of each Δt_g). The coupled model was validated against two previously reported experiments on surface water and groundwater interactions in coastal lagoons. The results suggest that the model represents well the interacting surface water and groundwater flow and solute transport processes in the lagoons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.