Cancer risk analysis and assessment of trihalomethanes in drinking water

This study conducts risk assessment for an array of health effects that may result from exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs). An analysis of the relationship between exposure and health-related outcomes is conducted. The trihalomethanes (THMs) species have been verified as the principal DBPs in the drinking water disinfection process. The data used in this study was collected from the Taiwan Water Corporation (TWC) from 1998 to 2002. Statistical analysis, multistage of Benchmark model, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and sensitive analysis were used to estimate the cancer risk analysis and assessment. This study included the statistical data analysis, epidemiology investigation and cancer risk assessment of THMs species in drinking water in Taiwan. It is more significant to establish an assessment procedure for the decision making in policy of drinking water safety predominantly.     

Stochastic multimedia risk assessment for a site with contaminated groundwater

 There exist many sites with contaminated groundwater because of inappropriate handling or disposal of hazardous materials or wastes. Health risk assessment is an important tool to evaluate the potential environmental and health impacts of these contaminated sites. It is also becoming an important basis for determining whether risk reduction is needed and what actions should be initiated. However, in research related to groundwater risk assessment and management, consideration of multimedia risk assessment and the separation of the uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and the variability due to natural heterogeneity are rare. This study presents a multimedia risk assessment framework with the integration of multimedia transfer and multi-pathway exposure of groundwater contaminants, and investigates whether multimedia risk assessment and the separation of uncertainty and variability can provide a better basis for risk management decisions. The results of the case study show that a decision based on multimedia risk assessment may differ from one based on risk resulting from groundwater only. In particular, the transfer from groundwater to air imposes a health threat to some degree. By using a methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation, a rank correlation coefficient, and an explicit decision criterion to identify information important to the decision, the results obtained when uncertainty and variability are separate differ from the ones without such separation. In particular, when higher percentiles of uncertainty and variability distributions are considered, the method separating uncertainty and variability identifies TCE concentration as the single most important input parameter, while the method that does not distinguish the two identifies four input parameters as the important information that would influence a decision on risk reduction.     

Uptake and tissue distribution of C4-C7 alkylphenols in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua): relevance for biomonitoring of produced water discharges from oil production

The sensitivity of different tissues for assessment of chronic low-dose environmental exposure of fish to alkylphenols (APs) was investigated. We exposed Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the laboratory to tritium labelled 4-tert-butylphenol, 4n-pentylphenol, 4n-hexylphenol, and 4n-heptylphenol via seawater (8 ng/l) and via contaminated feed (5 μg/kg fish per day). Measurements of different fish tissues during eight days of exposure and eight subsequent days of recovery revealed that APs administered via spiked seawater were readily taken up whereas the uptake was far less efficient when APs were administered in spiked feed. AP residues were mainly located in the bile fluid whereas the concentrations in liver were very low, indicating a rapid excretion and the liver-bile axis to be the major route of elimination. The biological half-life of APs in the exposed cod was short, between 10 and 20 h. Our study shows that in connection with biomonitoring of AP exposure in fish, assessment of AP metabolites in bile fluid is a more sensitive tool than detection of parent AP levels in liver or other internal tissues.     

A new risk assessment method for water quality degradation in harbour domains, using hydrodynamic models

This contribution presents a method for assessing the risk of water degradation in harbour domains. The method describes a normalized Index of Risk, ranging from 0 to 1, which determines the risk of water degradation due to a pollution event. A branch-decision scheme of decision-making theories was implemented in order to obtain this index. This method evaluates the cost of each decision as a function of the vulnerability, proximity and toxicity of the potential contaminant. A novel feature of this method is that the risk is defined by considering the physical behaviour of the harbour (i.e. water circulation patterns). Regions where water residence time is high are considered more vulnerable to pollutant releases. This method could be implemented from an operational perspective, in which case an oceanographic operational system could be used to obtain current forecasts which in turn would be used to forecast risk maps.     

PAH body burden and biomarker responses in mussels (Mytilus edulis) exposed to produced water from a North Sea oil field: laboratory and field assessments

In order to study the impact of produced water (PW) from a North Sea oil field on blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), chemical and biological markers were selected. A laboratory exposure (0.125%, 0.25% and 0.5% of PW) and a field study (6 stations 0.2-2 km from a PW discharge point) were conducted. In the laboratory study, PAH bioaccumulation increased in mussel soft tissue even at the lowest exposure dose. Micronuclei frequency demonstrated a dose-response pattern, whereas lysosomal membrane stability showed tendency towards a dose-response pattern. The same markers were assessed in the field study, biomarker analyses were consistent with the contamination level, as evaluated by mussel polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons body burden. Overall, obtained results confirmed the value of an ecotoxicological approach for a scientifically sound characterisation of biological effects induced by offshore oilfield operational discharges.     

Simulation-based risk assessment of contaminated sites under remediation scenarios, planning periods, and land-use patterns—a Canadian case study

Risk assessment of contaminated sites is crucial for quantifying adverse impacts on human health and the environment. It also provides effective decision support for remediation and management of such sites. This study presents an integrated approach for environmental and health risk assessment of subsurface contamination through the incorporation of a multiphase multicomponent modeling system within a general risk assessment framework. The method is applied to a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Three remediation scenarios with different efficiencies (0, 60, and 90%) and planning periods (10, 20, 40, 60, and 80 years later) are examined for each of the five potential land-use plans of the study site. Then three risky zones with different temporal and spatial distributions are identified based on the local environmental guidelines and the excess lifetime cancer risk criteria. The obtained results are useful for assessing potential human health effects when the groundwater is used for drinking water supply. They are also critical for evaluating environmental impacts when the groundwater is used for irrigation, stockbreeding, fish culture, or when the site remains the status quo. Moreover, the results indicate that the proposed method can effectively identify risky zones with different risk levels under various remediation actions, planning periods, and land-use patterns.     

Quantitative microbial risk assessment: uncertainty and measures of central tendency for skewed distributions

In the past, arithmetic and geometric means have both been used to characterise pathogen densities in samples used for microbial risk assessment models. The calculation of total (annual) risk is based on cumulative independent (daily) exposures and the use of an exponential dose–response model, such as that used for exposure to Giardia or Cryptosporidium. Mathematical analysis suggests that the arithmetic mean is the appropriate measure of central tendency for microbial concentration with respect to repeated samples of daily exposure in risk assessment. This is despite frequent characterisation of microbial density by the geometric mean, since the microbial distributions may be Log normal or skewed in nature. Mathematical derivation supporting the use of the arithmetic mean has been based on deterministic analysis, prior assumptions and definitions, the use of point-estimates of probability, and has not included from the outset the influence of an actual distribution for microbial densities. We address these issues by experiments using two real-world pathogen datasets, together with Monte Carlo simulation, and it is revealed that the arithmetic mean also holds in the case of a daily dose with a finite distribution in microbial density, even when the distribution is very highly-skewed, as often occurs in environmental samples. Further, for simplicity, in many risk assessment models, the daily infection risk is assumed to be the same for each day of the year and is represented by a single value, which is then used in the calculation of p _Σ, which is a numerical estimate of annual risk, P _Σ, and we highlight the fact that is simply a function of the geometric mean of the daily complementary risk probabilities (although it is sometimes approximated by the arithmetic mean of daily risk in the low dose case). Finally, the risk estimate is an imprecise probability with no indication of error and we investigate and clarify the distinction between risk and uncertainty assessment with respect to the predictive model used for total risk assessment.     

A framework for determining recommended environmental flows for balancing agricultural and ecosystem water demands

Abstract

We developed a water-use conflict analysis framework to determine environmental flows that optimally balance water requirements for ecosystems and human activities. This framework considers trade-offs between water use for ecosystem health and agricultural processes and considers temporal variations in hydrological processes. It comprises three separate models that (a) analyse water balance between agriculture and initial environmental flows, (b) identify outcomes of varying balances in water use, and (c) determine recommended environmental flows for sustainable water use. We applied the framework to a region downstream of the Yellow River in China. Based on our results, we recommend a water management plan that allocates more water to ecosystem services than is currently allocated and that does not increase predicted economic losses. In addition, we found that recommended flows change depending on the ecological objectives considered and whether technologies or methodologies that improve water-use efficiency are employed.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Pang, A., Sun, T., and Yang, Z., 2014. A framework for determining recommended environmental flows for balancing agricultural and ecosystem water demands. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 890–903.     

A robust well-balanced finite volume model for shallow water flows with wetting and drying over irregular terrain

An unstructured Godunov-type finite volume model is developed for the numerical simulation of geometrically challenging two-dimensional shallow water flows with wetting and drying over convoluted topography. In the framework of sloping bottom model, a modified formulation of shallow water equations is used to preserve mass conservation during flooding and recession. The key ingredient of the model is the use of this combination of the sloping bottom model and the modified shallow water equations to provide a robust technique for wet/dry fronts tracking and, together with centered discretization of the bed slope source term, to exactly preserve the static flow on irregular topographies. The variable reconstruction technique ensures nonnegative reconstructed water depth and reasonable reconstructed velocity, and the friction terms are solved by semi-implicit scheme that does not invert the direction of velocity components. The robustness and accuracy of the proposed model are assessed by comparing numerical and reference results of extensive test cases. Moreover, the results of a dam-break flooding over real topography are presented to show the capability of the model on field-scale application.