Attribution of twentieth century temperature change to natural and anthropogenic causes

  We analyse possible causes of twentieth century near-surface temperature change. We use an “optimal detection” methodology to compare seasonal and annual data from the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model HadCM2 with observations averaged over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The results indicate that the increases in temperature observed in the latter half of the century have been caused by warming from anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases offset by cooling from tropospheric sulfate aerosols rather than natural variability, either internal or externally forced. We also find that greenhouse gases are likely to have contributed significantly to the warming in the first half of the century. In addition, natural effects may have contributed to this warming. Assuming one particular reconstruction of total solar irradiance to be correct implies, when we take the seasonal cycle into account, that solar effects have contributed significantly to the warming observed in the early part of the century, regardless of any relative error in the amplitudes of the anthropogenic forcings prescribed in the model. However, this is not the case with an alternative reconstruction of total solar irradiance, based more on the amplitude than the length of the solar cycle. We also find evidence for volcanic influences on twentieth century near-surface temperatures. The signature of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo is detected using annual-mean data. We also find evidence for a volcanic influence on warming in the first half of the century associated with a reduction in mid-century volcanism. Received: 24 January 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2000     

Potential Role of Solar Variability as an Agent for Climate Change

Numerical experiments have been carried out with a two-dimensional sector averaged global climate model in order to assess the potential impact of solar variability on the Earth's surface temperature from 1700 to 1992. This was done by investigating the model response to the variations in solar radiation caused by the changes in the Earth's orbital elements, as well as by the changes intrinsic to the Sun. In the absence of a full physical theory able to explain the origin of the observed total solar irradiance variations, three different total solar irradiance reconstructions have been used. A total solar irradiance change due to the photospheric effects incorporated in the Willson and Hudson (1988) parameterization, and the newly reconstructed solar total irradiance variations from the solar models of Hoyt and Schatten (1993) and Lean et al. (1995). Our results indicate that while the influence of the orbital forcing on the annual and global mean surface temperature is negligible at the century time scale, the monthly mean response to this forcing can be quite different from one month to another. The modelled global warming due to the three investigated total solar irradiance reconstructions is insufficient to reproduce the observed 20th century warming. Nevertheless, our simulated surface temperature response to the changes in the Sun's radiant energy output suggests that the Gleissberg cycle (88 years) solar forcing should not be neglected in explaining the century-scale climate variations. Finally, spectral analysis seems to point out that the 10- to 12-year oscillations found in the recorded Northern Hemisphere temperature variations from 1700 to 1992 could be unrelated to the solar forcing. Such a result could indicate that the eleven-year period which is frequently found in climate data might be related to oscillations in the atmosphere or oceans, internal to the climate system.     

Urban heat island effect on annual mean temperature during the last 50 years in China

Summary Based on Chinas fifth population survey (2000) data and homogenized annual mean surface air temperature data, the urban heat island (UHI) effect on the warming during the last 50 years in China was analyzed in this study. In most cities with population over 10⁴, where there are national reference stations and principal stations, most of the temperature series are inevitably affected by the UHI effect. To detect the UHI effect, the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) time series were firstly classified into 5 subregions by using Rotated Principal Components Analysis (RPCA) according to its high and low frequency climatic change features. Then the average UHI effect on each subregions regional annual mean STA was studied. Results indicate that the UHI effect on the annual mean temperatures includes three aspects: increase of the average values, decrease of variances and change of the climatic trends. The effect on the climatic trends is different from region to region. In the Yangtze River Valley and South China, the UHI effect enhances the warming trends by about 0.011°C/decade. In the other areas, such as Northeast, North-China, and Northwest, UHI has little impact on the warming trends of the regional annual temperature; while in the Southwest of China, introducing UHI stations slows down the warming trend by –0.006°C/decade. But no matter what subregion it is, the total warming/cooling of these effects is much smaller than the background change in regional temperature. The average UHI effect for the entire country, during the last 50 years is less than 0.06°C, which agrees well with the IPCC (2001). This suggests that we cannot conclude that urbanization during the last 50 years has had much obvious effect on the observed warming in China.     

A Climate Change Scenario for the Tropics

This paper describes the construction of a climate change scenario for a region representing the extended Tropics – 30° N to 30° S – using a methodology that combines results from a simple climate model and a Global Climate Model (GCM) transient climate change experiment. The estimated date by which this climate change scenario might be realized ranges from as early as the end of the 2030s to as late as well into the 22nd century. The central estimate is for this scenario to describe the climate of the 2060s, which would represent a global warming rate of about 0.2 °C per decade, with associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations estimated to be about 560 ppmv, 55% higher than 1990 levels. The role of anthropogenic aerosols in offsetting part of this future global warming and altering the regional character of the changes has not been considered. The paper presents changes in mean temperature; mean rainfall; rainfall seasonality, variability, frequency, and intensity and soil moisture. These patterns of change derive from only one GCM climate change experiment; different experiments would yield different patterns for the same global warming. There is also some discussion about possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity, although since TCs remain poorly modelled in GCMs, the full range of possibilities (from reduced activity, through no change, to increased activity) should be considered in any impact assessment.     

Changes in European precipitation seasonality and in drought frequencies revealed by a four-century-long tree-ring isotopic record from Brittany, western France

A new paleoclimatic reconstruction for western France is obtained from tree-ring cellulose stable isotopes. Living trees from Rennes Forest and beams from two ancient buildings in Rennes city have been combined to cover the past four centuries with a gap from 1730 to 1750. The cellulose ¹³C reflects the progressive changes in atmospheric CO₂ isotopic composition. The combined ¹³C and ¹⁸O measurements are used to propose a reconstruction of interannual fluctuations in local summer temperature and water stress. At the decadal time scale, the reconstructed water stress profile exhibits a significant similarity with the historical wine harvest dates, an indicator of warm and dry growth seasons, as well as with the summer central England and central Alps instrumental temperature records and climate model results. Combined with instrumental precipitation records from Paris, these reconstructions suggest a dramatic and widespread change in the seasonality of the precipitation at the beginning of the nineteenth century, with drier winters and wetter summers, which may have contributed to the Alpine glacier decline at the end of the Little Ice Age. The tree-ring isotope records also show a relationship with large-scale North Atlantic circulation changes and the interannual variability is modified between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries (7–8 year periodicities) and the seventeenth century (11–14 year periodicities). By classifying 20-year-long subsets of the reconstructed climatic parameters, we estimate that a decadal mean summer warming of 0.8±0.1°C induced extreme dry years to be 2.2±0.7 times more frequent.     

Latitudinal variation of measured NO2 photolysis frequencies over the Atlantic Ocean between 50° N and 30° S

Using a filter radiometer, the meridional profile of the NO₂ photolysis frequency, J(NO₂), was measured between 50° N and 30° S during the cruise ANTVII/1 September/October 1988 of the research vessel Polarstern on the Atlantic Ocean. Simultaneously, global broadband irradiance and acrosol were monitored. Clean marine background air with low aerosol loads (b _sp=(1–2)×10^-5 m^-1) was encountered at the latitudes 25° N–30° N and 18° S–27° S, respectively. Under these conditions and an almost cloudless sky J(NO₂) reached 7.3×10^-3 s^-1 (2 sr) for a zenith angle of 30°. Between 30° N and 30° S, the latitudinal variation of the J(NO₂) noontime maxima was less than ± 10%, while the mean value at noon was 7.8×10^-3 s^-1. For the set of all data between 50° N and 30° S, a nearly linear correlation of J(NO₂) vs. global broadland irradiance was found. The slope of (8.24±0.03)×10^-5 s^-1/mW cm^-2 agrees within 10% with observations in Jülich (51° N, 6.2° E).     

Impact of ocean optical properties on seasonal SST: results with a surface ocean model coupled to the LMD AGCM

As the accuracy of ocean models improves, determination of the solar irradiance within the ocean may become important to simulate precisely the seasonal evolution of the SST. As ocean optical properties are not well documented in space and time, we have undertaken a sensitivity study to measure the corresponding SST uncertainties at a global scale using a model coupling the LMD AGCM with an integral mixed layer model and a thermodynamic sea ice representation. The downwelling irradiance formulation is that of Paulson and Simpson which has been tuned for the five water types of the Jerlov classification. Two sensitivity, and academic, experiments corresponding to a uniformly clear ocean or turbid ocean are carried out. Turbid waters exhibit, in general, a stronger seasonal cycle of the SST of about 2°C. The sensitivity is far from uniform, with a maximum in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes of the summer hemisphere. It corresponds precisely to the area in which the observed optical properties present a large temporal variability which is therefore likely to have an action on the seasonal cycle of the ocean surface temperatures. We perform a decomposition of the model sensitivity in four terms, corresponding to the direct impact of the water type change, feedback due to the mixed layer change, feedback due to the surface solar irradiance change, and feedback due to the non solar heat fluxes change. The first two terms dominate the SST change. The direct effect tends to increase the warming of the mixed layer. In addition, the mixed layer depth diminishes because of a higher stabilizing effect of solar radiation on the TKE budget. This tends to increase further summer warming of the SST as well as their winter cooling.     

The influence of fine particle tropospheric aerosol on local air and soil temperature in the central U.S.A.

The optical properties of two haze conditions prevalent during well-observed occasions in the central U.S.A. were estimated by Ball and Robinson (1982). A comprehensive, interactive, time-dependent model of the coupled atmospheric planetary boundary-upper soil (water) layers, specifically formulated to include such radiative parameters, is described in Brown et al. (1982) and earlier papers. A version of that model, including the Robinson and Ball radiative parameters, is applied with detailed micrometeorological measurements tabulated in Lettau and Davidson (1957), to obtain some quantitative estimates of the effects of haze on near-surface air and soil temperatures in agriculturally important regions of the central U.S.A.A calibration simulation of an observed two-day period in late summer over a dry-prairie surface shows the model's qualitative verisimilitude in the calculation of observed solar irradiance and near-surface air temperature. This is followed by a second model simulation experiment for late spring clear-sky conditions over a hypothetical moist bare-soil (sown cropland) surface, to estimate the effects of the two hazes on temperature and on the accompanying surface heat budgets. Significant alterations of near-surface temperatures, in the range 0.5 °C to 2.5 °C are found over a five-day simulation period. The alterations are such as to increase air-soil temperature difference, with relative warming of the air and relative cooling of the soil with both aerosol characterizations.     

On the annual and monthly mean diurnal variations of diffuse solar radiation at a meteorological station in west Africa

Summary In addition to global solar radiationE ^g , the hourly diffuse componentE ^d incident on a horizontal surface has been measured from February 1993 to January 1995 at a meteorological station in tropical West Africa. The measured diffuse solar irradiance data was corrected for shadow band effects. The monthly mean diurnal variations of diffuse solar irradiance obtained for identical months in the two years have been compared and found to be generally consistent. The corresponding monthly mean hourly values ofE ^d for identical months in 1993 and 1994 agreed to within 9% while yielding correlation coefficients greater than 0.960. In addition, the monthly mean daily totals ofE ^d for identical months were found to agree mostly to within 6% and showed virtually the same annual variations in both years. The monthly mean daily total values of diffuse solar radiation for most months in the two years ranged between 7.94 MJm^–2d^–1 and 10.50 MJm^–2d^–1. The monthly mean of daily hourly maximum values ofE ^d obtained for identical months in the two years have been discussed in relation to the dominant atmospheric conditions during these months. The results been presented here have been compared with those of some investigators within and outside the Africa region.With 8 Figures     

Successional development from stands ofMiscanthus sinensis to stands ofPinus densiflora and elements of microclimates: The seed germination and seedling establishment conditions ofP. densiflora

Summary The succession mechanism from stands ofMiscanthus sinensis to stands ofPinus densiflora was studied in relation to elements of microclimates within those plant communities. Laboratory experiments indicated that the seed germination ofP. densiflora occurred at cumulative soil temperature between 75 °C day and 200 °C day. It is assumed from field research that establishment ofP. densiflora seedlings is impossible if the effective cumulative air temperature at a height of 6 cm is less than 2,000 °C day, and the cumulative solar radiation figure totals less than 633 MJ/m². The seedlings thrived in aM. sinensis stand growing on gently convex topography, which fulfills the requisites mentioned above. The seedlings in aM. sinensis stand growing on gently concave topography and in aP. densiflora stand died completely by October.With 4 Figures     

Land use and local climate: A case study near Santa Cruz, Bolivia

Summary The Tierras Bajas regions of eastern Santa Cruz, Bolivia have undergone among the most rapid rates of concentrated deforestation during the 1980s and 1990s. We investigate the sensitivity of local climate to these land cover changes as observed from Landsat images acquired between 1975 and 1999. The Simple Biosphere model (SiB2) is used to assess the effects of both morphological and physiological changes in vegetation and the implications for fluxes of water, energy and carbon between the vegetation and the atmosphere during the rainy season.Conversion from tropical forest to cropland implicates morphological changes in vegetation as the primary drivers for a daily maximum warming of about 2°C and a slight nighttime cooling, suggesting that clearing of tropical forests for agricultural use may increase the diurnal temperature range, mainly by increasing the maximum temperature. On the other hand, the conversion of wooded grassland to cropland resulted in a similar daily warming and drying but exclusively due to vegetation physiological activity.The area-averaged monthly mean response for each conversion type resulted in a warming of about 0.6°C for the conversion of broadleaf evergreen and 1.2°C for conversion of wooded grassland. These temperature differences represent an augmentation in the local heat source associated with a reduction in evapotranspiration due to land cover conversion and do not reflect variations forced by changes in atmospheric circulation.When averaged over the entire domain, the effect of landscape conversion results in a reduction of the latent heat flux and an increase in sensible heat flux, producing a large-scale apparent heat source of 0.5°C during January. This warming is in line with an increasing trend observed in monthly mean temperature in Santa Cruz, Bolivia during the same period.     

Lake ice records used to detect historical and future climatic changes

Historical ice records, such as freeze and breakup dates and the total duration of ice cover, can be used as a quantitative indicator of climatic change if long homogeneous records exist and if the records can be calibrated in terms of climatic changes. Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, has the longest uninterrupted ice records available for any lake in North America dating back to 1855. These records extend back prior to any reliable air temperature data in the midwestern region of the U.S. and demonstrate significant warming of approximately 1.5 °C in fall and early winter temperatures and 2.5 °C in winter and spring temperatures during the past 135 years. These changes are not completely monotonie, but rather appear as two shorter periods of climatic change in the longer record. The first change was between 1875 and 1890, when fall, winter, and spring air temperatures increased by approximately 1.5 °C. The second change, earlier ice breakup dates since 1979, was caused by a significant increase in winter and early spring air temperatures of approximately 1.3 °C. This change may be indicative of shifts in regional climatic patterns associated with global warming, possibly associated with the Greenhouse Effect.With the relationships between air temperature and freeze and break up dates, we can project how the ice cover of Lake Mendota should respond to future climatic changes. If warming occurs, the ice cover for Lake Mendota should decrease approximately 11 days per 1 °C increase. With a warming of 4 to 5 °C, years with no ice cover should occur in approximately 1 out of 15 to 30 years.     

Possible influences of solar radiation variations on the atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere of the earth

The strength of the circumpolar zonal circulation of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere, expressed by an index calculated from the air pressure gradient between 35° N and 65°N, shows a remarkable secular change in this century in the years 1935 to 1938, and probably again in the years after 1970. A contemporary change and parallel course with a high positive correlation can be found in a solar radiation index calculated by means of sunspot numbers and solar faculae areas. A good correlation was also found between this solar radiation index and a series of UV measurements on Mt. Wilson. The possible mechanism of action in the atmosphere will be discussed, and it is shown that this solar radiation index is also correlated with circulation parameters in the troposphere and stratosphere over Europe. There are indications of a decrease of the action from the upper to the lower atmosphere. The consequences of this secular change of circulation for the climatic history in the 20th century in Europe are presented and from that a hypothetical retrospective view of the European climatic history before the 20th century, based on the total series of sunspot numbers, is briefly discussed. In a general view with smoothed data it can be concluded that the sun seems to determine the basic structure of the north hemispheric circulation in middle latitudes, if a strong influence of sunspots and solar faculae on the solar radiation is assumed.     

Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?

A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assessthe climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.     

Simple indices of global climate variability and change Part II: attribution of climate change during the twentieth century

Five simple indices of surface temperature are used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic and natural (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol) forcing on observed climate change during the twentieth century. These indices are based on spatial fingerprints of climate change and include the global-mean surface temperature, the land-ocean temperature contrast, the magnitude of the annual cycle in surface temperature over land, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient and the hemispheric temperature contrast. The indices contain information independent of variations in global-mean temperature for unforced climate variations and hence, considered collectively, they are more useful in an attribution study than global mean surface temperature alone. Observed linear trends over 1950–1999 in all the indices except the hemispheric temperature contrast are significantly larger than simulated changes due to internal variability or natural (solar and volcanic aerosol) forcings and are consistent with simulated changes due to anthropogenic (greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol) forcing. The combined, relative influence of these different forcings on observed trends during the twentieth century is investigated using linear regression of the observed and simulated responses of the indices. It is found that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the observed changes in surface temperature during 1946–1995. We found that early twentieth century changes (1896–1945) in global mean temperature can be explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing, as well as internal climate variability. Estimates of scaling factors that weight the amplitude of model simulated signals to corresponding observed changes using a combined normalized index are similar to those calculated using more complex, optimal fingerprint techniques.     

Solar Forcing of Global Climate Change Since The Mid-17th Century

Spacecraft measurements of the sun's total irradiance since 1980 have revealed a long-term variation that is roughly in phase with the 11-year solar cycle. Its origin is uncertain, but may be related to the overall level of solar magnetic activity as well as to the concurrent activity on the visible disk. A low-pass Gaussian filtered time series of the annual sunspot number has been developed as a suitable proxy for solar magnetic activity that contains a long-term component related to the average level of activity as well as a short-term component related to the current phase of the 11-year cycle. This time series is also assumed to be a proxy for solar total irradiance, and the irradiance is reconstructed for the period since 1617 based on the estimate from climatic evidence that global temperatures during the Maunder Minimum of solar activity, which coincided with one of the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age, were about 1 °C colder than modern temperatures. This irradiance variation is used as the variable radiative forcing function in a one-dimensional ocean–climate model, leading to a reconstruction of global temperatures over the same period, and to a suggestion that solar forcing and anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing made roughly equal contributions to the rise in global temperature that took place between 1900 and 1955. The importance of solar variability as a factor in climate change over the last few decades may have been underestimated in recent studies.     

Satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation,surface temperature and sea ice concentration off the coast of Adélie-Land,Eastern Antarctica

Summary Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) as seen from satellite (NOAA-series), and sea ice concentration in Mer Dumont d'Urville, Eastern Antarctica were analyzed. For the time period 1974–1990 available radiative flux data showed a slight increase of 1.8 W/m² or 1% for the period. If thistrend should continue — trends over a 16-year period in any geophysical data is a rather questionable concept in isolation — a 4°C warming would be observed from space for this polar region over a century. The observed increase is, however, in agreement with Dumont d'Urville, the only ground station within the study area, which displayed a similar temperature increase (Periard and Pettré, 1991). Further it is in agreement with the general temperature increase which has been observed for the high southern latitudes (Boden et al., 1990). In addition, models of climatic change due to increased CO₂ and other trace gases predict for polar regions values of similar size.Sea ice concentration showed a slight decrease for the time period 1974–1989, for which data were available. However, a relationship existed between the radiative flux and the ice concentration, not only for the actual data, but also for the deviation series with the annual cycles removed. A correlation factor of –0.74 was found; the sensitivity for an increase of 10% in ice concentration was –2.9 W/m². This represents a temperature change as seen from space of about 1°C for a 10% change in sea ice concentration.With 7 Figures     

Glacial meltwater cooling of the Gulf of Mexico: GCM implications for Holocene and present-day climates

An atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM, has been used to investigate the possible effects that reduced Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures (SST) could have on regional and hemispheric climates. ¹⁸O records and terrestrial evidence indicate at least two major glacial meltwater discharges into the Gulf of Mexico subsequent to the last glacial maximum. It is probable that these discharges reduced Gulf of Mexico SST. We have conducted three numerical experiments, with imposed gulf-wide SST coolings of 3°C, 6°C, and 12°C, and find in all three experiments significant reductions in the North Atlantic storm-track intensity, along with a strong decrease in transient eddy water vapor transport out of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures are higher over the North Atlantic, indicating a reduction of the climatological Icelandic low. The region is generally cooler and drier, with a reduction in precipitation that agrees well with evidence from Greenland ice cores. Other statistically significant changes occur across the Northern Hemisphere, but vary between the three experiments. In particular, warmer, wetter conditions are found over Europe for both the 6°C and 12°C SST reductions, but cooler conditions are found for the 3°C reduction. This indicates a dependence, in both the sign and magnitude of the model response, on the magnitude of the imposed SST anomaly. The results suggest that the present-day North Atlantic storm track is dependent on warm Gulf of Mexico SST for much of its intensity. They also suggest that meltwater-induced coolings may help account, in part, for some of the climatic oscillations that occurred during the last glacial/interglacial transition.     

Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past,present, and future

The surface air temperature increase in the southwestern United States was much larger during the last few decades than the increase in the global mean. While the global temperature increased by about 0.5 °C from 1975 to 2000, the southwestern US temperature increased by about 2 °C. If such an enhanced warming persisted for the next few decades, the southwestern US would suffer devastating consequences. To identify major drivers of southwestern climate change we perform a multiple-linear regression of the past 100 years of the southwestern US temperature and precipitation. We find that in the early twentieth century the warming was dominated by a positive phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) with minor contributions from increasing solar irradiance and concentration of greenhouse gases. The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO. The current southwestern US drought is associated with a near maximum AMO index occurring nearly simultaneously with a minimum in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. A similar situation occurred in mid-1950s when precipitation reached its minimum within the instrumental records. If future atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase according to the IPCC scenarios (Solomon et al. in Climate change 2007: working group I. The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, 996 pp, 2007), climate models project a fast rate of southwestern warming accompanied by devastating droughts (Seager et al. in Science 316:1181–1184, 2007; Williams et al. in Nat Clim Chang, 2012). However, the current climate models have not been able to predict the behavior of the AMO and PDO indices. The regression model does support the climate models (CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs) projections of a much warmer and drier southwestern US only if the AMO changes its 1,000 years cyclic behavior and instead continues to rise close to its 1975–2000 rate. If the AMO continues its quasi-cyclic behavior the US SW temperature should remain stable and the precipitation should significantly increase during the next few decades.     

Climate change may already threaten Scots pine stands in the Swiss Alps

Summary Large numbers of Scots pine are dying in the dry inner-alpine valleys of the European Alps; in Switzerland, locally almost half the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) population has died since 1995. As Switzerlands temperature has increased at more than twice the global average in the 20^th century and as most of this increase has occurred during the last 20 years, we investigated possible relationships between the dying Scots pine and climatic parameters. We centred our studies in the upper Rhone valley.Our results show that the strong climatic warming that has occurred in recent years may well be the indirect cause of the mortality observed in these forests. Tree mortality was highest following the dry and hot year 1998, and tree defoliation, an indicator of tree vitality, showed a strong correlation with the previous years precipitation. While precipitation showed no clear significant trend over time, the number of warm days (mean>20°C, maximum>25°C) and potential evapotranspiration have significantly increased over the last 20 years.Higher temperatures favour pine wood nematodes and bark beetles, both of which are found at the study site, and increasing drought stress reduces tree resistance against pathogens. As these forests have in part protective functions, there is a need to better understand the mortality through interdisciplinary research and also to find means to change the species composition in order to establish tree species that are better able to withstand warmer temperatures.