山葡萄品质气象预测预报模型

山葡萄的品质决定着葡萄酒的质量,葡萄浆果糖度决定着葡萄品质。葡萄成熟过程中浆果含糖量和含酸量是相互制约的,含糖量主要呈对数略显“S”型变化,含酸量呈指数曲线型变化。将成熟期葡萄浆果含糖量作为葡萄品质的评价指标,利用通化产区19952016年成熟期山葡萄浆果含糖量的实测数据与气象条件进行相关分析,得出山葡萄品质与5月9月上旬积温、7月8月日照时数、5月9月上旬水热系数、8月9月上旬积温关系密切,相关关系均通过了α为0.05或0.01的显著性检验。利用多元回归统计方法建立了山葡萄品质气象预测预报模型,模型的判定系数R^2为0.815,通过了α=0.01的显著性检验。模型的拟合检验平均误差百分率为3.91%。利用2017年、2018年资料对模型进行试报检验,误差百分率分别为1.59%和3.79%。模型具有较高的准确率,能够满足通化产区山葡萄栽培对气象预报和服务的需求。     

朝阳地区沟植垄盖一膜两用气象实用技术应用研究

朝阳地区位于辽宁省西部，年平均降水量442．1～498．0mm，降水分布是东南多、西北少，季节分配不均衡，雨量集中于7～8月份，春早、伏早、秋早等早灾经常发生，造成的危害最大，占总经济损失的60％～70%。在解放后38年中，春早出现20次，占53％；夏早出现14次，占36．7%；秋早出现18次，占47．4％。     

冬季气候影响评价

冬季（1996年12月～1997年2月）新疆大部地区气温偏高，北疆12月下旬出现异常回暖现象。降水北疆大部偏多，南疆大部偏少。北疆北部积雪异常偏厚。雪灾危害突出，牧业生产出现严重困难。1气候概况气温：季平均气温，北疆地区为－10．0℃；南疆地区为－3．9℃。与常年同期相比较，北疆偏高2℃；南疆偏高1－7℃。各地季平均气温，全疆除喀什、和田异常值高，石河子正常外，其它大部地区偏高。冬季气温除2月上旬偏低外，其它时间气温偏高，12月下旬的异常回暖气候是新疆有史以来罕见的。各月乎均气温，12月气温旬际变化大。上旬北疆大部偏低4～…     

1994年广东省气候影响评价

1主要气象要素统计分析1．1气温1994年广东省年平均气温：北部20．0～21．0C；中部21．0～22．5℃；南部和西南部22．5～24．1℃。徐闻县达24．1℃，为全省最高值。与常年相比，北部偏高0．2～0．5℃，广州、番禹、珠海、深圳等市偏高1．0～1．1℃。各月气温比较：1～2月、4～5月、11～12月偏高；3月和7～8月偏低；6月和9～10月接近常年。1993～1994年度的寒潮出现较早，首次出现在1993年11月21～22日（强度偏弱）；另一次出现在1994年1月18～21日，24小时降温5～7℃，48小时降温10～13℃。北部出现霜冻和冰冻，其中北部偏北山区霜日达4～6…     

基于温特斯法的夏季气温预测模型建立及应用

介绍了温特斯法的基本理论及3个平滑方程的递推公式、初始值公式和预测模型公式，并依据其理论，采用VB6．0编程技术，设计了预测模型软件；同时，将夏季6、7、8月的月平均气温看作具有随机性、线性、季节性变化的时间序列，利用商丘、民权、柘城、永城4个代表站1961～1999年夏季气温样本资料，建立了预测模型。对2000～2002年夏季气温试报结果为，平均预测准确率92％，其中7月份100％，6月份92％，8月份83％。     

2008年青海省主要农作物生育期农业气象条件评述

2008年春季（3—5月）,农业区气温偏高,大部降水偏多。5月上旬,农业区大部出现透雨,对增加农田土壤有效水分十分有利,加之2007年秋季全省各地降水偏多,农田土壤底墒充足为次年春耕生产打下良好基础。3月上旬至4月上旬,农业区春小麦、油菜等农作物较历年提前2—17d播种。夏季（6—8月）,大部气温正常或偏高0．1～0．9℃,降水偏少,个别地区出现了轻旱;大通、湟中、互助出现中旱,同时农业区局部地区小麦出现病虫害。     

吉林省1996年6月久旱转雨中期天气特征分析

1概述1996年6月我省的天气特点是：气温偏高，降雨稍多，气温缓降，降雨的阶段性变化明显。气温的旬分布特征是：上旬特高，旬平均气温21．7℃，比常年同期高3．7℃，是历史同期第二位，仅次于1972年的22．3℃；中旬稍高，旬平均气温20.0℃，比常年同期高0．5℃，除中西部地区比常年同期高1℃外，其它地区与常年同期相比为负距平；下旬稍低，旬平均气温20．8℃，比常年同期低0．5℃，除中部地区与常年持平外，西部和东部地区均低于常年同期，由上可见6月份我省气温是由特高逐渐转入稍低。降水的旬分布特征是：上旬特少，旬平均雨量7．6毫米…     

辽宁夏季积云降水发生频率及人工影响潜力分析

用辽宁14个台站的常规地面观测记录，统计分析了6～8月各类积云的发生频率及其降水特征，结合沈阳站的探空资料，分析了各类积云的降水能力和人工影响潜力。结果表明：①辽宁夏季积云出现概率很大，每站年均41．5d，占夏季总云日的50％以上；②平均每年每站有11d以上的积云降水，为夏季总降水日数的36．9％；③各地区平均积云降水量占总降水量的33．5％，其中积云暴雨量占总暴雨雨量的43．1％；④有层状云伴随出现的积云、积雨云出现的概率较大，但多数情况降水效率不很高，具有较多的人工增雨作业机会和潜力，可以作为人工催化的主要作业对象。     

江西省2001年1～3月天气气候影响评述

2001年1～3月天气气候条件利多弊少。1～2月上旬，全省以阴雨相间天气为主，气温较常年同期明显偏高，积温大部偏多，未出现明显的低温冻害天气；温度条件对油菜、冬小麦、绿肥等越冬作物及柑桔、李子等果树的越冬和蔬菜的生长有利；但降水偏多，光照明显不足，雨日长达18～23 d；田间10、20、50 cm土层土壤相对湿度基本处于饱和状态，对越冬作物的根系生长及形成壮苗不利，也不利于农田水利设施的修复。2月中旬全省气温偏高，光照充足，对油菜的开花授粉及冬小麦的拔节有利，至月末≥0 ℃的生育期积温达945～1 755 ℃，大部较常年偏多38～4…     

秋季气候影响评价

1996年9～11月新疆大部地区气温偏高，降水北疆偏多，南疆偏少。季内天气晴朗，光照充足，气候条件对秋收，秋种十分有利。但部分地区的多雪天气对交通及牧业生产有不利影响。1气候概况气温：季平均气温，北疆地区4～8℃；南疆地区8～13℃，与常年同期相比较，北疆偏高1℃左右；南疆偏高0．5℃左右。各地季平均气温，阿勒泰偏低；石河子、乌鲁木齐、奇台、吐鲁番、阿克苏、和田等地偏高；全疆其它地区气温正常。秋季气温下降很快，尤其是9月底以后，各地降温更快。9月下旬、10月上旬、10月下旬及11月中旬出现的中强夭气加剧了各地气温的下降…     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.