Projecting uncertainty onto marine megafauna trajectories

In this study, a method is proposed for estimating the uncertainty of a Lagrangian pathway calculated from an undersampled ocean surface velocity field. The primary motivation and application for this method is the differentiation between active and passive movements for sea turtles whose trajectories are observed with satellite telemetry. Synthetic trajectories are launched within a reconstructed surface velocity field and integrated forward in time to produce likely trajectories of an actual turtle or drifter. Uncertainties in both the initial conditions at launch and the velocity field along the trajectory are used to yield an envelope of possible synthetic trajectories for each actual trajectory. The juxtaposition of the actual trajectory with the resulting cloud of synthetic trajectories provides a means to distinguish between active and passive movements of the turtle. The uncertainty estimates provided by this model may lead to improvements in our understanding of where and when turtles are engaged in specific behaviors (i.e. migration vs. foraging)—for which potential management efforts may vary accordingly.     

Increasing underwater vehicle autonomy by reducing energy consumption

In this paper, we concern ourselves with finding a control strategy that minimizes energy consumption along a trajectory connecting two given configurations. We develop an algorithm, based on our previous work with the time optimal problem, which provides implementable control strategies that are energy efficient. We find an interesting correlation between the duration of these trajectories and the optimal duration. We present the algorithm, control strategy and experimental results from our test-bed vehicle.     

Dispersion of surface drifters and model-simulated trajectories

From a data set encompassing the years 1990–2008 pairs of surface drifters with maximum initial separations of 5, 10 and 25 km have been identified. Model trajectories have been calculated using the same initial positions and times as the selected pairs of surface drifters. The model trajectories are based on the TRACMASS trajectory code and driven by the ocean general circulation model NEMO. The trajectories are calculated off-line, i.e. with the stored velocity fields from the circulation model. The sensitivity of the trajectory simulations to the frequency of the stored velocity fields was tested for periods of 3 and 6 h as well as 5 days. The relative dispersion of the surface-drifter and model trajectories has been compared, where the latter was found to be too low compared to the relative dispersion of the drifters.Two low-order trajectory sub-grid parameterisations were tested and successfully tuned so that the total amplitude of the relative dispersion of the model trajectories is similar to that associated with the drifter trajectories. These parameterisations are, however, too simple for a correct simulation of Lagrangian properties such as the correlation time scales and the variance of the eddy kinetic energy.The importance of model-grid resolution is quantified by comparing the relative dispersion from an eddy-permitting and a coarse-resolution model, respectively. The dispersion rate is halved with the coarse grid. The consequences of the two-dimensionality of the trajectories is evaluated by comparing the results obtained with the 2D and the Lagrangian 3D trajectories. This shows that the relative dispersion is 15% stronger when the trajectories are freely advected with the 3D velocity field.     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

Numerical Modeling of the Stability of Horizontal Multidrain Oil Wells

The stability of the horizontal multidrain wells is a crucial issue and several factors are involved in this matter, including in-situ stresses, magnitude and distribution as well as the mainbore trajectories. In this paper, this issue is evaluated by assuming different circumstances for the above mentioned factors, based on finite difference three-dimensional modeling by using the finite difference numerical software, FLAC3D. The stability of the mainbore and lateral branches is analyzed based on the Normalized Yielded Zone Area (NYZA) criterion, i.e. the ratio of the surrounding yielded cross-sectional area to the initial area of the well. Optimum mud pressures are obtained in the mainbore and lateral branches in different mainbore trajectories under three in-situ stress regimes. In addition, the stability of the junction where the lateral branches are bifurcated from the mainbore is assessed in those situations. The optimum trajectory of the mainbore, in which the junction has obtained the most stable condition, is selected in each stress regime. It was concluded that in the Normal Faulting (NF) stress regime, the mainbore and junction stability varies in relation to the mainbore trajectories, inversely. However, in the other two stress regimes, i.e. Strike Slip (SS) and Reverse Faulting (RF), the variations of the mainbore and junction stability are in the same trend with respect to the mainbore trajectory deviations.     

Lagrangian predictability assessed in the East China Sea

A group of 30 surface drifters, launched over a 4 day period as part of a US Navy exercise in early October 2007, are used to assess the predictability of trajectories in a confined geographic region at the northwestern edge of the Kuroshio north of Taiwan. Model trajectories were computed from archives of hourly hindcast velocities from the US Navy East Asian Seas (EAS16) model with 1/16° horizontal resolution. Three metrics are defined for comparing observed and modeled trajectories. All three metrics indicated that model trajectories separated from observations by roughly 15 km after the first 24 h on average. Because of the unique launch strategy for these drifters, with six repetitions of launches from four locations, the dependence of predictability on both launch time and launch location could be assessed separately. Predictive skill displayed only modest dependence on launch time, likely influenced by the passage of a typhoon near the experiment area a few days prior to the first drifter launch. Launch location was a much more reliable indicator of predictive skill, with trajectories for launches closest to the edge of the Kuroshio typically hardest to predict, and those for launches on the shelf, where currents tended to be weaker, predicted more accurately. Comparisons of skill metric statistics for modeled trajectories from hindcasts with and without tides suggested that tidal currents have only a small impact on predictive skill. The influence of archive time and space resolution was also studied using sets of model trajectories computed from hindcast archives that were systematically subsampled separately in space and time. Coarsening by up to a factor of eight in either space or time had little impact on predictive skill. Further coarsening degraded trajectory predictions, particularly when coarsening in time leads to an archive time step too large to adequately resolve the tides. While accurate trajectory predictions remain challenging for ocean models, skill assessments like the one presented here are important for developing error estimates for users of trajectory forecasts and for gaining new insight into potential sources of model errors.     

Numerical analysis on ship maneuvering coupled with ship motion in waves

This paper considers a numerical analysis of ship maneuvering performance in the presence of incident waves and resultant ship motion responses. To this end, a time-domain ship motion program is developed to solve the wave–body interaction problem with the ship slip speed and rotation, and it is coupled with a modular-type 4-DOF maneuvering problem. In this coupled problem, the second-order mean drift force, which can play an important role in the ship maneuvering trajectory, is estimated by using a direct pressure integration method. The developed method is validated by observing the second-order mean drift force, and planar trajectories in maneuvering tests with and without the presence of incident waves. The comparisons are made for two ship models, Series 60 with block coefficient 0.7 and the S-175 containership, with existing experimental data. The maneuvering tests observed in this study include a zig-zag test in calm water, and turning tests in calm water and in regular waves. The present results show a fair agreement of overall tendency in maneuvering trajectories.     

基于时空约束和三角形迭代划分的渔船AIS与ARPA轨迹匹配

针对现有的轨迹相似度匹配算法用于渔船AIS (Automatic Identification System)与ARPA (Automatic Radar Plotting Aid)轨迹匹配时存在复杂度高、效率低等问题,本文提出基于时空约束和三角形迭代划分的渔船AIS与ARPA轨迹匹配算法TSC-TIP (Temporal and Spatial Constraint-Triangle Iterative Partitioning)。首先采用时空约束法筛选出ARPA目标时空约束范围内的AIS数据;其次采用三角形相似算法选择与AIS数据具有相似特征点的APRA轨迹数据;最后设计了子轨迹迭代划分法将每条轨迹划分为两条子轨迹并采用三角形相似法对子轨迹进行迭代筛选。为验证算法的性能,用渔船的真实AIS轨迹数据和ARPA轨迹数据进行了试验,结果表明：与基于经典距离的相似性度量方法相比,提出的TSC-TIP算法在不影响匹配准确率的前提下,匹配时间减少了95%。研究表明：TSC-TIP算法能有效匹配渔船AIS与ARPA轨迹数据,为面向AIS与ARPA的渔船轨迹数据融合研究提供了新思路。     

Underwater Vehicle Navigation Using Diffusion-Based Trajectory Observers

This paper addresses the issue of estimating underwater vehicle trajectories using gyro-Doppler (body-fixed velocities) and acoustic positioning signals (earth-fixed positions). The approach consists of diffusion-based observers processing a whole trajectory segment at a time, allowing the consideration of important practical problems such as different information update rates, outages, and outliers in a very simple framework. Results of contraction theory are used to prove that the observers are convergent, i.e., stable in the incremental sense. Simulation and experimental results are presented to illustrate the potential of application of the method.     

海上溢油粒子追踪预测模型中的两种数值方法比较

在海上溢油粒子追踪预测模型中,关键的是对拉格朗日微分方程的求解。本文首先通过数值实验比较了欧拉法和龙格-库塔法求解拉格朗日溢油轨迹微分方程的优劣,然后将其应用到2005年4月3日发生在大连附近的“ARTEAGA”油轮溢油事故的油膜粒子追踪模型中。数值实验和应用结果表明,在近岸不均匀流场下,用龙格-库塔方法解拉格朗日油粒子微分方程比用欧拉法求解精度高,用龙格-库塔方法模拟“ARTEAGA”油轮轨迹及其扩散范围与实际观测更为接近,而用欧拉法模拟溢油扩散的面积偏大。     

平潭近岸海域浮子漂移轨迹及其数值模拟

平潭近岸海域岸线曲折,周边岛礁众多,海底地形复杂,是福建省海难事故的高发区.本研究建立了平潭近岸海域海上目标物漂移轨迹的预测系统,该系统通过风场和流场的数值模型获取海面动力环境信息,采用拉格朗日算法实现对海上目标物漂移轨迹的预测追踪.其中海流模型采用ROMS（regional ocean modeling system）模型构建,模型水平方向上最高分辨率为100m,垂向上分为16层,并考虑干湿边界,以体现复杂海岸线和水深地形.通过验证分析,潮位、流速和流向的模拟平均绝对误差分别为0.20 m、0.12 m/s和26°.通过平潭近岸2个浮子实验,结果表明,浮子漂移过程中受潮流和局地地形的影响明显,对漂移模型在平潭近岸海域的适用性进行初步验证,浮子模拟轨迹与实际漂移过程基本吻合,模拟时段内最大偏差距离为2.8km,系统可以为平潭近岸海域海上突发事故应急决策提供参考.     

Assessment of water exchange between a discharge region and the open sea – A comparison of different methodological concepts

Two different methods of estimating the water exchange through the Baltic coastal region of Laxemar have been used, consisting of particle trajectories and passive tracers. Water is traced from and to a small discharge region near the coast. The discharge material in this region is treated as zero-dimensional particles or tracers with neutral buoyancy. The real discharge material could be a leakage of radio-nuclides through the sea floor from an underground repository of nuclear waste.Water exchange rates between the discharge region and the model domain are estimated using both forward and backward trajectories as well as passive tracers. The Lagrangian trajectories can account for the time evolution of the water exchange while the tracers give one average age per model grid box. Water exchange times such as residence time, age and transient times have been calculated with trajectories but only the average age (AvA) for tracers. The trajectory calculations provide a more detailed time evolution than the tracers.On the other hand the tracers are integrated “on-line” simultaneously in the sea circulation model with the same time step while the Lagrangian trajectories are integrated “off-line” from the stored model velocities with its inherent temporal resolution, presently 1 h. The sub-grid turbulence is parameterised as the Laplacian diffusion for the passive tracers and with an extra stochastic velocity for trajectories. The importance of the parameterised sub-grid turbulence for the trajectories is estimated to give an extra diffusion of the same order as the Laplacian diffusion by comparing the Lagrangian dispersions with and without parameterisation. The results of the different methods are similar but depend on the chosen diffusivity coefficient with a slightly higher correlation between trajectories and tracers when integrated with a lower diffusivity coefficient.     

Enhanced estimation of sonobuoy trajectories by velocity reconstruction with near-surface drifters

An investigation to improve trajectory prediction using Lagrangian data is presented. The velocity field of a data assimilating model, EAS-16, is corrected using drifter observations taken during an experiment off Taiwan. The results are tested using another independent Lagrangian data set provided by sonobuoys launched in the same area. The latter have instrument chains that extend well into the water column. Consequently the corrected model velocities were projected into the water column in order to calculate sonobuoy trajectories. The drifter and sonobuoy trajectories both show two distinct regimes in the considered area of approximately 1/2° square. One regime is dominated by shelf dynamics, the other by meandering of the Kuroshio, with a sharp boundary dividing the two. These two regimes are not reproduced by the trajectories of the EAS-16 model. When the drifter data are blended with the model velocities, synthetic sonobuoy trajectories track the observed ones much better, and the two regimes are clearly depicted. Two different methods for the velocity reconstruction are tested. One is based on a variational approach and the other on a normal mode decomposition. Both methods show qualitatively similar improvements in the prediction of sonobuoys trajectories, with a quantitative improvement in the total rms error of approximately 50% and 25%, respectively.     

Estimation of water-vapor and ozone transport in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere and fluxes through the tropopause during the field campaign at the Sodankyla station (Finland)

Processes of mass exchange through the tropopause at extratropical latitudes are studied. For this purpose, balloon data on ozone and water vapor obtained during the LAUTLOS field campaign were analyzed and a trajectory model was used to analyze the origin of air masses and to calculate fluxes through the tropopause. The results of observations and trajectory modeling showed that tropospheric air masses penetrated into the stratosphere by no more than ～2.5 km above the tropopause level during the campaign. Both tropospheric and stratospheric particles are present in this mixing layer. Backward trajectories showed that, at the anticyclone boundary, tropospheric air penetrates into the stratosphere in the form of fine fibrous structures (filaments). The fluxes through the tropopause were also quantitatively estimated by the Wei method with the use of forward and backward trajectories. The spatial structure of the fluxes through the tropopause coincides with the regions of the tropopause inclination and its folds. The absolute values of the fluxes calculated with the use of the Wei method decrease, depending on the length of trajectories at the expense of the filtering-out of a shallow reversible exchange. It is shown that the exchange depth can be controlled by both vertical fluxes in the troposphere and changes in the level of the tropopause itself. The use of isentropic and three-dimensional trajectories made it possible to estimate the contribution of nonadiabatic processes to the stratosphere-troposphere exchange.     

Biorobotic AUV maneuvering by pectoral fins: inverse control design based on CFD parameterization

Biologically inspired maneuvering of autonomous undersea vehicles (AUVs) in the dive plane using pectoral-like oscillating fins is considered. Computational fluid dynamics are used to parameterize the forces generated by a mechanical flapping foil, which attempts to mimic the pectoral fin of a fish. Since the oscillating fins produce periodic force and moment of a variety of wave shapes, the essential characteristics of these signals are captured in their Fourier expansions. Maneuvering of the biorobotic AUV in the dive plane is accomplished by periodically altering the bias angle of the oscillating fin. Based on a discrete-time AUV model, an inverse control system for the dive-plane control is derived. It is shown that, in the closed-loop system, the inverse control system accomplishes accurate tracking of the prescribed time-varying depth trajectories and the segments of the intersample depth trajectory remain close to the discrete-time reference trajectory. The results show that the fins located away from the center of mass toward the nose of the vehicle provide better maneuverability.     

Robust coordinated motion control of an underwater vehicle-manipulator system with minimizing restoring moments

For autonomous manipulation in water, an underwater vehicle-manipulator system (UVMS) should be able to generate trajectori9es for the vehicle and manipulators and track the planned trajectories accurately. In this paper, for trajectory generation, we suggest a performance index for redundancy resolution. This index is designed to minimize the restoring moments of the UVMS during manipulation, and it is optimized without impeding the performance of a given task. As a result, the restoring moments of the UVMS are decreased, and control efforts are also reduced. For tracking control of the UVMS, a nonlinear H_∞ optimal control with disturbance observer is proposed. This control is robust against parameter uncertainties, external disturbances, and actuator nonlinearities. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed coordinated motion control of the UVMS. The results show that control inputs for tracking are reduced, and the UVMS can successfully track generated trajectories.     

基于复杂网络的海洋涡旋移动特征研究——以南海为例

海洋涡旋作为一种快速连续变化的海洋现象,如何分析和挖掘其移动特征成为当前海洋涡旋定量研究的重点。本文引入空间数据挖掘的社区网络划分方法,将涡旋过程看作复杂的移动网络,对涡旋移动的聚集性特征进行探索和分析。首先,以网格为统计单元对1992-2011年近20年南海海洋涡旋移动数据进行组织,基于图论模型构建了涡旋瞬时移动（TP）,涡旋移动起止点（OD）,涡旋最小描述距离的特征点移动网（MDL）和涡旋过程移动再生数据（RSP）4种状态的海洋涡旋的移动网络图;其次,采用基于快速模块度优化的区域划分方法分别得到4种状态下涡旋移动的聚集性区域;最后,利用弦图对区域内和区域间涡旋移动规律进行了可视化分析,发现海洋涡旋的RSP数据能够弥补原始涡旋移动数据在区域划分方法中呈现的数量不足的问题,能够在足够数据量的情况下,有效地发现从起点到终点的主要移动通道和涡旋移动的聚集性区域,这些区域反映了南海涡旋从其产生、发展到结束整个演化过程的聚集性特征。     

袁河流域极端降水事件成因分析

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心格点再分析资料和HYSPLIT模式对袁河流域5次极端降水天气过程的平均环流背景、主要影响系统、物理量场以及降水发生过程中的120 h气块后向轨迹特征进行分析。结果发现:(1)极端降水发生时,高层袁河流域处于南亚高压东侧辐散气流中,中层副热带高压位置适中,受584 dagpm线附近的西南气流控制,低层正好处于切变线上,且有强盛的西南气流向降水区输送能量和水汽。(2)物理量场上,袁河流域附近低层辐合、高层辐散,垂直速度场、水汽分布、水汽通量散度场都有利于该区域出现暴雨天气。(3)与袁河流域一般性暴雨的平均t-lnp图对比分析可见,极端暴雨的能量条件更好,降水对流性更强,水汽条件也更为充沛。(4)袁河流域极端降水上空的水汽路径总体上可以归纳为5条。来源于孟加拉湾附近、中南半岛南部和云南南部的西南水汽路径最多,占轨迹总数的59.5%;其次是来源于我国南海的南方路径,主要位于1 500 m以下,占轨迹总数的15.0%。     

Trajectory model for vertical sphere water-entry in presence of deep-seal cavity

This study presents a piecewise model for determining the vertical distance and velocity evolution with time for a sphere impacting a water surface and submerging to depths beyond deep-seal cavity pinch-off. Experimental data taken with a high-speed camera are presented for varying sphere mass ratios and impact velocities. The semi-empirical model incorporates results from previously published research and is shown to be in good agreement with experiments for heavier spheres but deviates when the sphere is only slightly denser than water. Two causes for the deviation are presented which relate to the dynamics of the cavity pinch-off event and the inception of a trailing vortex ring after the trailing cavity sloughs from the sphere. A model for predicting cavity pinch-off time and sphere position and velocity at the moment of cavity pinch-off is shown to agree well with experimental results for varying sphere mass ratios and impact velocities. The key experimental values are provided for comparison with current and future modeling efforts.