A comparative study of geothermal and meteorological records of climate change in Kamchatka

To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.     

Long-term monitoring of the temperature profile in a deep borehole: Temperature variations associated with water injection experiments and natural groundwater discharge

Long-term temperature monitoring was carried out in a borehole drilled for investigation of the Nojima fault, an active fault in SW Japan, using the distributed optical fiber temperature sensing (DTS) technique. Temperatures in the borehole had been measured every 1 m along an optical fiber cable with a resolution of about 0.1 K over a period of 6 years. Water injection experiments were conducted in this borehole in 1997, 2000 and 2003. Monitoring of the temperature profile was started after the first injection experiment, and the temperature profile remained very stable until the start of the second injection experiment. During the second and third experiments, the temperatures in the borehole dropped due to cooling by the injected water but no appreciable temperature change was observed below about 580 m. It clearly shows that the water leaked out of the hole around this point and the leaking depth is estimated to be about 540 m based on the shape of the temperature profile. After the injection was stopped, the recovery of the temperature to the undisturbed profile was exceptionally slow around the leaking point, resulting in a local temperature anomaly, probably because the water leaking out of the hole had cooled the surrounding formations extensively. A very similar temperature anomaly was observed at the beginning of temperature monitoring, which suggests that water leaked out at the same depth in the first injection experiment as well. Between the second and third injection experiments, the top of the borehole was kept open to allow groundwater discharge for about 1 month in 2000 and 2003. In both periods, groundwater flowed out continuously and the shapes of the observed temperature profiles indicate that the groundwater entered in the hole at the same depth as the leaking point during the injection experiments. The temperature records also show that the rate of discharge had been nearly constant through the two test periods. The water discharge appears to have been little affected by the water injection. These results demonstrate that the optical fiber temperature monitoring system is a very effective tool for hydrological experiments.     

Deduction of groundwater flow regime in a basaltic aquifer using geochemical and isotopic data: The Golan Heights, Israel case study

Groundwater flow-paths through shallow-perch and deep-regional basaltic aquifers at the Golan Heights, Israel, are reconstructed by using groundwater chemical and isotopic compositions. Groundwater chemical composition, which changes gradually along flow-paths due to mineral dissolution and water–rock interaction, is used to distinguish between shallow-perched and deep-regional aquifers. Groundwater replenishment areas of several springs are identified based on the regional depletion in rainwater δ¹⁸O values as a function of elevation (−0.25‰ per 100 m). Tritium concentrations assist in distinguishing between pre-bomb and post-bomb recharged rainwater.

It was found that waters emerging through the larger springs are lower in δ¹⁸O than surrounding meteoric water and poor in tritium; thus, they are inferred to originate in high-elevation regions up to 20 km away from their discharge points and at least several decades ago. These results verify the numerically simulated groundwater flow field proposed in a previous study, which considered the geological configuration, water mass balance and hydraulic head spatial distribution.     

Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees: Horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients

In this study, snowpack series are modeled across the Pyrenees using data derived from the HIRHAM Regional Climate Model for both the control period (1960–1990) and two emission scenarios (SRES B2 and A2) by the end of the 21st century (2070–2100). A comparison of future and control simulations enables us to quantify the expected change in snowpack for the next century. Snow simulations are performed on 20 Regional Climate Model (RCM) grid points over the Pyrenees, covering the entire north–south and east–west transects; data were downscaled for four different altitudinal levels (1500, 2000, 2500, and 3000 m a.s.l.). This procedure yields a relatively complete picture of the expected impacts of climate change in the Pyrenees, covering horizontal spatial variability as well as altitudinal gradients. According to the HIRHAM model projections following different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the thickness and duration of snowpack in the Pyrenees will decrease dramatically over the next century, especially in the central and eastern sectors of the Spanish Pyrenees. The magnitude of these impacts will follow a marked altitudinal gradient: the maximum accumulated snow water equivalent may decrease by up to 78%, and the season with snow cover may be reduced by up to 70% at 1500 m a.s.l. The magnitude of the impacts decreases rapidly with increasing altitude; snowpack characteristics will remain largely similar in the highest sectors. The decline of the snowpack would be reduced by half if a medium–low emission scenario was considered (B2) instead of the medium–high concentrations of greenhouse gas assumed in the A2 scenario.     

Linear and non-linear approaches to predict the Darcy-Weisbach friction factor of overland flow using the extreme learning machine approach

In modeling of overland flow and erosion, the overland flow friction factor (f), is a crucial factor. Due to the importance of a good understanding of f and its variability, the current study aimed to investigate the capability of non-linear approaches to estimate the Darcy-Weisbach friction factor of overland flow and its components (sediment transport, wave, form, and grain friction factors) through the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) approach. Four datasets were used herein which were obtained from flume experiments done by different researchers. In order to investigate the effects of different parameters on the friction factor, numerous models consisting of various parameters were utilized to predict the friction factor using the ELM approach. The modeling procedure was established in two stages; the first stage aimed to model the overland flow friction factor and investigate the effect of the different parameters on the friction factor using non-linear separation via the ELM approach. In the second stage, the friction factor was linearly separated into different types of friction factors and then the separate components were estimated. Sensitivity analysis results confirmed the key role of Froude number (Fr) values for most of the models. On the other hand, the results obtained for estimated values of the friction factor were acceptable and outperformed available empirical approaches.     

Observations of the response time of high-latitude ionospheric convection to variations in the interplanetary magnetic field using EISCAT and IMP-8 data

We have combined ∼300 h of tristatic measurements of the field-perpendicular F region ionospheric flow measured overhead at Tromsø by the EISCAT UHF radar, with simultaneous IMP-8 measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) upstream of the Earth’s magnetosphere, in order to examine the response time of the ionospheric flow to changes in the north-south component of the IMF (B_z). In calculating the flow response delay, the time taken by field changes observed by the spacecraft to first effect the ionosphere has been carefully estimated and subtracted from the response time. Two analysis methods have been employed. In the first, the flow data were divided into 2 h-intervals of magnetic local time (MLT) and cross-correlated with the “half-wave rectifier” function V²B_s, where V is the solar wind speed, and B_s is equal to IMF B_z if the latter is negative, and is zero otherwise. Response delays, determined from the time lag of the peak value of the cross-correlation coefficient, were computed versus MLT for both the east-west and north-south components of flow. The combined data set suggests minimum delays at ∼1400 MLT, with increased response times on the nightside. For the 12-h sector centred on 1400 MLT, the weighted average response delay was found to be 1.3 ± 0.8 min, while for the 12-h sector centred on 0200 MLT the weighted average delay was found to increase to 8.8 ± 1.7 min. In the second method we first inspected the IMF data for sharp and enduring (at least ∼5 min) changes in polarity of the north-south component, and then examined concurrent EISCAT flow data to determine the onset time of the corresponding enhancement or decay of the flow. For the case in which the flow response was timed from whichever of the flow components responded first, minimum response delays were again found at ∼1400 MLT, with average delays of 4.8 ± 0.5 min for the 12-h sector centred on 1400 MLT, increasing to 9.2 ± 0.8 min on the nightside. The response delay is thus found to be reasonably small at all local times, but typically ∼6 min longer on the nightside compared with the dayside. In order to make an estimate of the ionospheric information propagation speed implied by these results, we have fitted a simple theoretical curve to the delay data which assumes that information concerning the excitation and decay of flow propagates with constant speed away from some point on the equatorward edge of the dayside open-closed field line boundary, taken to lie at 77° magnetic latitude. For the combined cross-correlation results the best-fit epicentre of information propagation was found to be at 1400 MLT, with an information propagation phase speed of 9.0 km s⁻¹. For the combined event analysis, the best-fit epicentre was also found to be located at 1400 MLT, with a phase speed of 6.8 km s⁻¹.