Effects of hydrogeological and climate change on the subsurface thermal regime in the Sendai Plain

We estimated the effects of hydrogeological and surface temperature warming on subsurface thermal regime from the temperature-depth profiles and hydrological data of groundwater quality both in the quaternary and tertiary systems in the Sendai Plain as a preliminary step toward reconstruction of climate changes.Annual mean air temperature in the plain has increased about 1.5 °C in the last 70 years and this surface warming resulted in low or negative thermal gradient. However, anomaly of thermal gradient was recognized in not all temperature-depth profiles. Groundwater chemical compositions and stable isotope data (δD and δ¹⁸O) show that the groundwater flow system has marked difference between those of tertiary and quaternary systems. Calculated results of three dimensional groundwater flow and heat transport model ensure the above hypothesis and shows that thermal gradient changes at close to basement of the quaternary system. The differences in groundwater flow systems are expressed as subsurface thermal gradient anomalies in the temperature-depth profiles in the Sendai Plain. Furthermore, one-dimensional numerical analyze including the effect of surface warming indicates that calculated profile has departure from steady state line at depths in 60-80 m agree well with observed one.     

Groundwater temperature evolution in the subsurface urban heat island of Cologne,Germany

Long‐term heating of shallow urban aquifers is observed worldwide. Our measurements in the city of Cologne, Germany revealed that the groundwater temperatures found in the city centre are more than 5 K higher than the undisturbed background. To explore the role of groundwater flow for the development of subsurface urban heat islands, a numerical flow and heat transport model is set up, which describes the hydraulic conditions of Cologne and simulates the transient evolution of thermal anomalies in the urban ground. A main focus is on the influence of horizontal groundwater flow, groundwater recharge and trends in local ground warming. To examine heat transport in groundwater, a scenario consisting of a local hot spot with a length of 1 km of long‐term ground heating was set up in the centre of the city. Groundwater temperature‐depth profiles at upstream, central and downstream locations of this hot spot are inspected. The simulation results indicate that the main thermal transport mechanisms are long‐term vertical conductive heat input, horizontal advection and transverse dispersion. Groundwater recharge rates in the city are low (<100 mm a^?1) and thus do not significantly contribute to heat transport into the urban aquifer. With groundwater flow, local vertical temperature profiles become very complex and are hard to interpret, if local flow conditions and heat sources are not thoroughly known. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparative study of geothermal and meteorological records of climate change in Kamchatka

To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.     

华北地区水位下降是否会减缓气温上升——浅部地温影响的数值模拟分析

华北地区由于长期持续的地下水过量开采,导致了大面积地下水位大幅下降,引发地面塌陷、地下水质污染等一系列地质环境问题,这些现象早已为人们所熟知和关注.然而地下水位下降还会造成百米量级浅部地温及其梯度的变化,因此即使来自地球深部的大地热流密度没有变化,年度平均的从表浅部位通过地表实际传导进入大气的热流密度会减小,这是中外文献中尚未见讨论过的问题.我们通过数值模拟发现假定大地热流密度不变的条件下,华北数万平方公里地下水位下降会造成百米尺度内的地温降低,从而传入大气的热流密度降低40%以上,且会持续数百年以上的时间.这种长时间大范围的传导入大气的热流密度变化对环境会造成什么影响是一个十分值得关注的问题.这一预测在一定程度上得到了气象站地温观测数据的支持,但由于目前气象观测站只有3.2 m深度范围内的地温资料,累计不超过5、60年,中间还有10余年的间断,而且表浅深度地温受地表多种因素的影响也较大,这些资料难以对我们关心的地下水位下降引起流入大气的热流密度变化这一问题提供直接确凿的数据来进行分析,因此今后有必要开展对地下数十乃至数百米地温进行持续精确的监测工作.     

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the flow regime of the Han River basin using indicators of hydrologic alteration

Most natural disasters are caused by water‐/climate‐related hazards, such as floods, droughts, typhoons, and landslides. In the last few years, great attention has been paid to climate change, and especially the impact of climate change on water resources and the natural disasters that have been an important issue in many countries. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, the number of water‐related disasters is expected to rise. In this regard, this study intends to analyse the changes in extreme weather events and the associated flow regime in both the past and the future. Given trend analysis, spatially coherent and statistically significant changes in the extreme events of temperature and rainfall were identified. A weather generator based on the non‐stationary Markov chain model was applied to produce a daily climate change scenario for the Han River basin for a period of 2001–2090. The weather generator mainly utilizes the climate change SRES A2 scenario driven by input from the regional climate model. Following this, the SLURP model, which is a semi‐distributed hydrological model, was applied to produce a long‐term daily runoff ensemble series. Finally, the indicator of hydrologic alteration was applied to carry out a quantitative analysis and assessment of the impact of climate change on runoff, the river flow regime, and the aquatic ecosystem. It was found that the runoff is expected to decrease in May and July, while no significant changes occur in June. In comparison with historical evidence, the runoff is expected to increase from August to April. A remarkable increase, which is about 40%, in runoff was identified in September. The amount of the minimum discharge over various durations tended to increase when compared to the present hydrological condition. A detailed comparison for discharge and its associated characteristics was discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

四川盆地钻孔温度测量及现今地热特征

基于四川盆地9口钻孔的稳态测温资料和297块岩石样品的热导率数据,报道了9个高质量的大地热流数据,提出了沉积地层岩石热导率系列柱.结合前人的数据资料,绘制了地温梯度和大地热流等值线图.四川盆地沉积地层的岩石热导率变化主要由岩性控制,与现今埋藏深度没有明显的相关性.盆地的地温梯度为17.7～33.3℃/km,平均值为22...     

Reflectance spectral characterization and mineralogy of acid sulphate soil in subsurface using hypcrspectral data

Acid sulphate soil（ASS） is a kind of soil which is harmful to the environment.ASS is hard to efficiently assess efficiently in the subsurface,although it is detectable on the surface by remote sensing.This paper aims to explore a new way to rapidly assess ASS in the subsurface by introducing a proximal hyperspectral instrument,namely the HyloggerTM system which can rapidly scan soil cores and provide high resolution hyperspectral data.Some minerals in ASS,which usually act as indicators of the severity of ASS,such as iron oxides,hydroxides,and sulphates,as well as some clay minerals,such as kaolinite,have diagnostic spectral absorption features in the reflectance spectral range（400-2500 nm）.Soil cores were collected from a study area and hyperspectral data were acquired by HyloggerTM scanning.The main minerals related to ASS were characterized spectrally,and were subsequently identified and mapped in the soil cores based on their reflectance spectral characteristics.Traditional X-ray diffraction（XRD） and scanning electron microscope（SEM） were also applied to verify the results of the mineral identification.The main results of this study include the spectral characterisation of ASS and its main compositional minerals,as well as the distribution of these relevant minerals in different depth of cores.     

Long-term monitoring of the temperature profile in a deep borehole: Temperature variations associated with water injection experiments and natural groundwater discharge

Long-term temperature monitoring was carried out in a borehole drilled for investigation of the Nojima fault, an active fault in SW Japan, using the distributed optical fiber temperature sensing (DTS) technique. Temperatures in the borehole had been measured every 1 m along an optical fiber cable with a resolution of about 0.1 K over a period of 6 years. Water injection experiments were conducted in this borehole in 1997, 2000 and 2003. Monitoring of the temperature profile was started after the first injection experiment, and the temperature profile remained very stable until the start of the second injection experiment. During the second and third experiments, the temperatures in the borehole dropped due to cooling by the injected water but no appreciable temperature change was observed below about 580 m. It clearly shows that the water leaked out of the hole around this point and the leaking depth is estimated to be about 540 m based on the shape of the temperature profile. After the injection was stopped, the recovery of the temperature to the undisturbed profile was exceptionally slow around the leaking point, resulting in a local temperature anomaly, probably because the water leaking out of the hole had cooled the surrounding formations extensively. A very similar temperature anomaly was observed at the beginning of temperature monitoring, which suggests that water leaked out at the same depth in the first injection experiment as well. Between the second and third injection experiments, the top of the borehole was kept open to allow groundwater discharge for about 1 month in 2000 and 2003. In both periods, groundwater flowed out continuously and the shapes of the observed temperature profiles indicate that the groundwater entered in the hole at the same depth as the leaking point during the injection experiments. The temperature records also show that the rate of discharge had been nearly constant through the two test periods. The water discharge appears to have been little affected by the water injection. These results demonstrate that the optical fiber temperature monitoring system is a very effective tool for hydrological experiments.     

A framework for assessing flow regime alterations resulting from the effects of climate change and human disturbance

Flow regimes have been severely altered by climate change and human activities in recent decades, which has led to ecological degradation in rivers. This study proposes an analogy analysis-based framework, coupled with the Pettitt test, the indicators of hydrological alteration and the range of variation approach, which were used to distinguish the different effects. This framework was applied to the Sha River, a typical river in North China, to test its effectiveness. The results show that: (i) human disturbance had larger effects on pre-flood flow magnitude, the timing, frequency and duration of high and low pulse, and the flow change rate; (ii) climate change mainly influences the magnitude of flood and post-flood flows, and of extreme events; and (iii) the probability of high alteration from the target frequency increased by 69.7% due to the combined impacts. These results can provide valuable references for water resource and aquatic ecosystem management.     

Evaluating the impacts of climate change and switchgrass production on a semiarid basin

Climate and land use changes greatly modify hydrologic regimes. In this paper, we modelled the impacts of biofuel cultivation in the US Great Plains on a 1061‐km² watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. The model was calibrated to monthly discharges spanning 2002–2010 and for the winter, spring, and summer seasons. SWAT was then run for a climate‐change‐only scenario using downscaled precipitation and a projected temperature for 16 general circulation model (GCM) runs associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 scenario spanning 2040–2050. SWAT was also run on a climate change plus land use change scenario in which Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) replaced native range grasses, winter wheat, and rye (89% of the basin). For the climate‐change‐only scenario, the GCMs agreed on a monthly temperature increase of 1–2 °C by the 2042–2050 period, but they disagreed on the direction of change in precipitation. For this scenario, decreases in surface runoff during all three seasons and increases in spring and summer evapotranspiration (eT) were driven predominantly by precipitation. Increased summer temperatures also significantly contributed to changes in eT. With the addition of switchgrass, changes in surface runoff are amplified during the winter and summer, and changes in eT are amplified during all three seasons. Depending on the GCM utilized, either climate change or land use change (switchgrass cultivation) was the dominant driver of change in surface runoff while switchgrass cultivation was the major driver of changes in eT. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes

Climate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide-ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation-based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias-correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time-slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward.     

Deduction of groundwater flow regime in a basaltic aquifer using geochemical and isotopic data: The Golan Heights, Israel case study

Groundwater flow-paths through shallow-perch and deep-regional basaltic aquifers at the Golan Heights, Israel, are reconstructed by using groundwater chemical and isotopic compositions. Groundwater chemical composition, which changes gradually along flow-paths due to mineral dissolution and water–rock interaction, is used to distinguish between shallow-perched and deep-regional aquifers. Groundwater replenishment areas of several springs are identified based on the regional depletion in rainwater δ¹⁸O values as a function of elevation (−0.25‰ per 100 m). Tritium concentrations assist in distinguishing between pre-bomb and post-bomb recharged rainwater.

It was found that waters emerging through the larger springs are lower in δ¹⁸O than surrounding meteoric water and poor in tritium; thus, they are inferred to originate in high-elevation regions up to 20 km away from their discharge points and at least several decades ago. These results verify the numerically simulated groundwater flow field proposed in a previous study, which considered the geological configuration, water mass balance and hydraulic head spatial distribution.     

The impacts of climate change on local hydrology and low flow frequency in the Geum River Basin,Korea

The climate sensitive analysis of potential climate change on streamflow has been conducted using a hydrologic model to identify hydrologic variability associated with climate scenarios as a function of perturbed climatic variables (e.g. carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation). The interannual variation of water resources availability as well as low flow frequency driven by monsoonal time shifts have been investigated to evaluate the likelihood of droughts in a changing climate. The results show that the timing shift of the monsoon window associated with future climate scenarios clearly affect annual water yield change of ? 12 and ? 8% corresponding to 1‐month earlier and 1‐month later monsoon windows, respectively. Also, a more severe low flow condition has been predicted at 0·03 m³/s as opposed to the historic 7Q10 flow of 1·54 m³/s given at extreme climate scenarios. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鳙、鲢鱼鳞作为稳定同位素研究非致命采样替代物的有效性

稳定同位素分析技术已成为食物网研究中的关键技术,通用方法是取鱼类背部白色肌肉,在实际应用过程会导致鱼类的死亡,因而有所局限.使用非致命组织作为稳定同位素研究中的替代组织越来越得到关注,但是目前国内尚未开展相关研究.比较鳙(Aristichthy nobilis)、鲢(Hypophthalmichthys molitrix)鱼鳞与肌肉组织中δ13C和δ15N比值,发现鳙、鲢的鱼鳞与肌肉组织中δ13C和δ15N比值均有显著差异.鱼鳞δ13C比值比肌肉更富集,平均高2.54‰,而δ15N比值比肌肉平均低0.7‰.对鳙、鲢的鱼鳞与肌肉组织δ15N比值含量进行相关分析发现,通过构建线性模型,可用校正后的鱼鳞δ15N比值替代肌肉组织δ15N比值.鲢的鱼鳞与肌肉组织δ13C比值存在显著线性相关,而鳙的鱼鳞与肌肉组织δ13C比值无显著相关关系.     

20世纪温度变化中自然变率和人为因素的影响:基于耦合气候模式的归因模拟

本文基于中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对近百年气温变化的模拟,讨论了自然变率和人为因素对20世纪全球变暖的相对贡献.数值试验结果表明,在自然和人为因子的共同强迫作用下,耦合模式能够合理再现20世纪全球平均气温随时间的演变;仅在自然因子作用下,模式不能再现1970年以后的全球变暖.自然因素对20世纪第一次变暖的作用是显著的,但温室气体是20世纪后期变暖的主要原因.在这一定性结论基础上,进一步对近百年变化中自然和人为因素的相对贡献做定量的归因分析,结果表明,除赤道中东太平洋和北大西洋外,人为因素对近百年的增暖起决定性作用.对全球、半球及大陆尺度而言,外强迫可以解释平均气温变化的70%以上,而内部变率贡献较小;但对于区域尺度而言,多数地区内部变率的贡献大于外强迫,区域尺度气温变化的机制较全球、半球尺度要复杂.对中国地区而言,20世纪早期的气温变化受自然变率影响,但20世纪后期的变暖主要是温室气体增加的结果.中国东部气温变化的空间分布表明,自然因素对近50年及近百年中国地区的变暖趋势贡献较小.在自然和人为因子共同作用下,模式能够再现近50年中国东部气温变化冬春两季增暖的特征、但没有模拟出夏季长江中下游地区及淮河流域的降温趋势;自然因子试验的结果表明,太阳活动对该区域的变冷有贡献,但模式无法再现该地区气温的季节变化特征.     

Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: hydrological response of flow to climate change

The warming of the Earth's atmosphere system is likely to change temperature and precipitation, which may affect the climate, hydrology and water resources at the river basins over the world. The importance of temperature change becomes even greater in snow or glacier dominated basins where it controls the snowmelt processes during the late‐winter, spring and summer months. In this study hydrologic responses of streamflow in the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins to climate change are analysed with a watershed hydrology model, based on the downscaled atmospheric data as input, in order to assess the regional climate change impact for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan. As a result of this analysis, it was found that the annual mean river discharge is increasing in the future at snow and glacier dominated areas due to the air temperature increase and the consequent increase in snow/ice melt rates until about 2060. Then the annual mean flow discharge starts to decrease from about 2080 onward because the small glaciers start to disappear in the glacier areas. It was also found that there is a gradual change in the hydrologic flow regime throughout a year, with the high flows occuring earlier in the hydrologic year, due to the warmer climate in the future. Furthermore, significant increases in annual maximum daily flows, including the 100‐year return period flows, at the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins toward the end of the 21st century can be inferred from flood frequency analysis results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generating probabilistic estimates of hydrological response for Irish catchments using a weather generator and probabilistic climate change scenarios

In accounting for uncertainties in future simulations of hydrological response of a catchment, two approaches have come to the fore: deterministic scenario‐based approaches and stochastic probabilistic approaches. As scenario‐based approaches result in a wide range of outcomes, the role of probabilistic‐based estimates of climate change impacts for policy formulation has been increasingly advocated by researchers and policy makers. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on seasonal river flows by propagating daily climate time series, derived from probabilistic‐based climate scenarios using a weather generator (WGEN), through a set of conceptual hydrological models. Probabilistic scenarios are generated using two different techniques. The first technique used probabilistic climate scenarios developed from statistically downscaled scenarios for Ireland, hereafter called SDprob. The second technique used output from 17 global climate models (GCMs), all of which participated in CMIP3, to generate change factors (hereafter called CF). Outputs from both the SDprob and the CF approach were then used in combination with WGEN to generate daily climate scenarios for use in the hydrological models. The range of simulated flow derived with the CF method is in general larger than those estimated with the SDprob method in winter and vice versa because of the strong seasonality in the precipitation signal for the 17 GCMs. Despite this, the simulated probability density function of seasonal mean streamflow estimated with both methods is similar. This indicates the usefulness of the SDprob or probabilistic approach derived from regional scenarios compared with the CF method that relies on sampling a diversity of response from the GCMs. Irrespective of technique used, the probability density functions of seasonal mean flow produced for four selected basins is wide indicating considerable modelling uncertainties. Such a finding has important implications for developing adaptation strategies at the catchment level in Ireland. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vectorized simulation of groundwater flow and contaminant transport using analytic element method and random walk particle tracking

Groundwater contaminant transport processes are usually simulated by the finite difference (FDM) or finite element methods (FEM). However, they are susceptible to numerical dispersion for advection‐dominated transport. In this study, a numerical dispersion‐free coupled flow and transport model is developed by combining the analytic element method (AEM) with random walk particle tracking (RWPT). As AEM produces continuous velocity distribution over the entire aquifer domain, it is more suitable for RWPT than FDM/finite element methods. Using the AEM solutions, RWPT tracks all the particles in a vectorized manner, thereby improving the computational efficiency. The present model performs a convolution integral of the response of an impulse contaminant injection to generate concentration distributions due to a permanent contaminant source. The RWPT model is validated with an available analytical solution and compared to an FDM solution, the RWPT model more accurately replicates the analytical solution. Further, the coupled AEM‐RWPT model has been applied to simulate the flow and transport in hypothetical and field aquifer problems. The results are compared with the FDM solutions and found to be satisfactory. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.     

Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees: Horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients

In this study, snowpack series are modeled across the Pyrenees using data derived from the HIRHAM Regional Climate Model for both the control period (1960–1990) and two emission scenarios (SRES B2 and A2) by the end of the 21st century (2070–2100). A comparison of future and control simulations enables us to quantify the expected change in snowpack for the next century. Snow simulations are performed on 20 Regional Climate Model (RCM) grid points over the Pyrenees, covering the entire north–south and east–west transects; data were downscaled for four different altitudinal levels (1500, 2000, 2500, and 3000 m a.s.l.). This procedure yields a relatively complete picture of the expected impacts of climate change in the Pyrenees, covering horizontal spatial variability as well as altitudinal gradients. According to the HIRHAM model projections following different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the thickness and duration of snowpack in the Pyrenees will decrease dramatically over the next century, especially in the central and eastern sectors of the Spanish Pyrenees. The magnitude of these impacts will follow a marked altitudinal gradient: the maximum accumulated snow water equivalent may decrease by up to 78%, and the season with snow cover may be reduced by up to 70% at 1500 m a.s.l. The magnitude of the impacts decreases rapidly with increasing altitude; snowpack characteristics will remain largely similar in the highest sectors. The decline of the snowpack would be reduced by half if a medium–low emission scenario was considered (B2) instead of the medium–high concentrations of greenhouse gas assumed in the A2 scenario.