The Greenland ice sheet and greenhouse warming

Increased melting on glaciers and ice sheets and rising sea level are often mentioned as important aspects of the anticipated greenhouse warming of the earth's atmosphere. This paper deals with the sensitivity of Greenland's ice mass budget and presents a tentative projection of the Greenland component of future sea level rise for the next few hundred years. To do this, the ‘Villach II temperature scenario’ is prescribed,output from a comprehensive mass balance model is used to drive a high-resolution 3-D thermomechanic model of the ice sheet.The mass balance model consists of two parts: the accumulation part is based on presently observed values and is forced by changes in mean anr tempeerature. The ablation model is based on the degree-day method and accounts for daily and annual temperature cycle, a different degree-day factor for ice and snow melting and superimposed ice formation. Under present-day climatic conditions, the following total mass balance results (in ice equivalent per years): 599.3 × 10⁹ m³ of accumulation, 281.7 × 10⁹m³ of runoff assuming a balanced budget, 317.6 × 10⁹m³ of iceberg calving. A 1K uniform warming is then calculated to increase the runoff by 119.5 × 10⁹ m³. Since accumulation also increases by 32 × 10⁹ m³, this leads to reduction of the total mass balance by 887.5 × 10⁹ m³ of ice, corresponding to a sea level rise of 0.22 mm/yr. For temperature increase larger than 2.7 K, runoff, exceeds accumulation, and if ice sheet dynamics were to remain unchanged, this would add an extra amount of 0.8 mmyr to the worl's oceans.Imposing the Villach II scenario (warming up to 4.23 K) and accumulating mass balance changes forward in time (static response) would then result in a global sea level rise of 7.1 cm by 2100 AD, but this figure may go up to as much as 40 cm per century in case the warming is doubled. In a subsequent dynamic model involving the ice flow, the ice sheet is found to produce a counteracting effect by dynamically producing steeper slopes at the margin, thereby reducing the area over which runoff can take place. This effect is particularly apparent in the northeastern part of the ice sheet, and is also more pronounced for the smaller temperature perturbations. Nevertheless, all these experiments certainly highlight the vulnerability of the Greenland ice sheet with respect to a climatic warming.     

Enigmatic solar wind disappearance events – Do we understand them?

At the Sun-Earth distance of one astronomical unit (1 AU), the solar wind is known to be strongly supersonic and super Alfvenic with Mach and Alfven numbers being on average 12 and 9 respectively. Also, solar wind densities (average ∼10cm^-3) and velocities (average ∼450kms^-1) at 1AU, are known to be inversely correlated with low velocities having higher than average densities andvice versa. However, on May 11 and 12 1999 the Earth was engulfed by an unusually low density (< 0.1cm^-3) and low velocity (< 350km s^-1) solar wind with an Alfven Mach number significantly less than 1. This was a unique low-velocity, low-density, sub-Alfvénic solar wind flow which spacecraft observations have shown lasted more than 24 hours. One consequence of this extremely tenuous solar wind was a spectacular expansion of the Earth’s magnetosphere and bow shock. The expanding bow shock was observed by several spacecraft and reached record upstream distances of nearly 60 Earth radii, the lunar orbit. The event was so dramatic that it has come to be known asthe solar wind disappearance event. Though extensive studies of this event were made by many authors in the past, it has only been recently shown that the unusual solar wind flows characterizing this event originated from a small coronal hole in the vicinity of a large active region on the Sun. These recent results have put to rest speculation that such events are associated with global phenomenon like the periodic solar polar field reversal that occurs at the maximum of each solar cycle. In this paper we revisit the 11 May 1999 event, look at other disappearance events that have ocurred in the past, examine the reasons why speculations about the association of such events with global phenomena like solar polar field reversals were made and also examine the role of transient coronal holes as a possible solar source for such events.     

Periodic Appearance of Coronal Holes and the Related Variation of Solar Wind Parameters

We compared the variability of coronal hole (CH) areas (determined from daily GOES/SXI images) with solar wind (daily ACE data) and geomagnetic parameters for the time span 25 January 2005 until 11 September 2005 (late declining phase of solar cycle 23). Applying wavelet spectral analysis, a clear 9-day period is found in the CH time series. The GOES/SXI image sequence suggests that this periodic variation is caused by a mutual triangular distribution of CHs ∼120° apart in longitude. From solar wind parameters a 9-day periodicity was obtained as well, simultaneously with the 9-day period in the CH area time series. These findings provide strong evidence that the 9-day period in solar wind parameters, showing up as higher harmonic of the solar rotation frequency, is caused by the “periodic” longitudinal distribution of CHs on the Sun recurring for several solar rotations. The shape of the wavelet spectrum from the Dst index matches only weakly with that from the CH areas and is more similar to the wavelet spectrum of the solar wind magnetic field magnitude. The distinct 9-day period does not show up in sunspot group areas which gives further evidence that the solar wind modulation is strongly related to CH areas but not to active region complexes. The wavelet power spectra for the whole ACE data range (∼1998 – 2006) suggest that the 9-day period is not a singular phenomenon occurring only during a specific time range close to solar minimum but is occasionally also present during the maximum and decay phase of solar cycle 23. The main periods correspond to the solar rotation (27^d) as well as to the second (13.5^d) and third (9^d) harmonic. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Enhancement of Solar Energetic Particles During a Shock – Magnetic Cloud Interacting Complex Structure

The behavior of solar energetic particles (SEPs) in a shock – magnetic cloud interacting complex structure observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft on 5 November 2001 is analyzed. A strong shock causing magnetic field strength and solar wind speed increases of about 41 nT and 300 km s⁻¹, respectively, propagated within a preceding magnetic cloud (MC). It is found that an extraordinary SEP enhancement appeared at the high-energy (≥10 MeV) proton intensities and extended over and only over the entire period of the shock – MC structure passing through the spacecraft. Such SEP behavior is much different from the usual picture that the SEPs are depressed in MCs. The comparison of this event with other top SEP events of solar cycle 23 (2000 Bastille Day and 2003 Halloween events) shows that such an enhancement resulted from the effects of the shock – MC complex structure leading to the highest ≥10 MeV proton intensity of solar cycle 23. Our analysis suggests that the relatively isolated magnetic field configuration of MCs combined with an embedded strong shock could significantly enhance the SEP intensity; SEPs are accelerated by the shock and confined into the MC. Further, we find that the SEP enhancement at lower energies happened not only within the shock – MC structure but also after it, probably owing to the presence of a following MC-like structure. This is consistent with the picture that SEP fluxes could be enhanced in the magnetic topology between two MCs, which was proposed based on numerical simulations by Kallenrode and Cliver (Proc. 27th ICRC 8, 3318, 2001b).     

Hypervelocity impacts into ice‐topped layered targets: Investigating the effects of ice crust thickness and subsurface density on crater morphology

Many bodies in the outer solar system are theorized to have an ice shell with a different subsurface material below, be it chondritic, regolith, or a subsurface ocean. This layering can have a significant influence on the morphology of impact craters. Accordingly, we have undertaken laboratory hypervelocity impact experiments on a range of multilayered targets, with interiors of water, sand, and basalt. Impact experiments were undertaken using impact speeds in the range of 0.8–5.3 km s^?1, a 1.5 mm Al ball bearing projectile, and an impact incidence of 45°. The surface ice crust had a thickness between 5 and 50 mm, i.e., some 3–30 times the projectile diameter. The thickness of the ice crust as well as the nature of the subsurface layer (liquid, well consolidated, etc.) have a marked effect on the morphology of the resulting impact crater, with thicker ice producing a larger crater diameter (at a given impact velocity), and the crater diameter scaling with impact speed to the power 0.72 for semi‐infinite ice, but with 0.37 for thin ice. The density of the subsurface material changes the structure of the crater, with flat crater floors if there is a dense, well‐consolidated subsurface layer (basalt) or steep, narrow craters if there is a less cohesive subsurface (sand). The associated faulting in the ice surface is also dependent on ice thickness and the substrate material. We find that the ice layer (in impacts at 5 km s^?1) is effectively semi‐infinite if its thickness is more than 15.5 times the projectile diameter. Below this, the crater diameter is reduced by 4% for each reduction in ice layer thickness equal to the impactor diameter. Crater depth is also affected. In the ice thickness region, 7–15.5 times the projectile diameter, the crater shape in the ice is modified even when the subsurface layer is not penetrated. For ice thicknesses, <7 times the projectile diameter, the ice layer is breached, but the nature of the resulting crater depends heavily on the subsurface material. If the subsurface is noncohesive (loose) material, a crater forms in it. If it is dense, well‐consolidated basalt, no crater forms in the exposed subsurface layer.     

Stability of ice on Mars and the water vapor diurnal cycle: Experimental study of the sublimation of ice through a fine-grained basaltic regolith

In order to advance our understanding of the long-term stability of subsurface ice, the diurnal martian water cycle, and implications for liquid water, we determined diffusion coefficients and adsorption kinetics for the water vapor produced by the sublimation of ice buried beneath various layers of fine-grained (<63, 63-125, and 125-250 μm) basaltic powder under simulated martian conditions. Sublimation rates at shallower depths, <10 mm, were determined to be affected by mass transfer through the atmosphere in addition to the basalt layer. For greater depths, the measured diffusion coefficients for water vapor moving through basalt grains were 1.56±0.53×¹⁰⁻⁴, 2.05±0.82×¹⁰⁻⁴, and for the <63, 63-125, and 125-250 μm basaltic layers, respectively. Through the Brunauer, Emmett and Teller (BET) isotherm, which assumes multiple molecular layers of adsorbed water, we determined the adsorption constants of 52.6±8.3 at 270 K for <63 μm, 39.0±6.4 at 267 K for 63-125 μm, and 54.3±9.3 at 266 K for 125-250 μm, resulting in surface areas of 2.6±0.1×¹⁰⁴, 1.7±0.3×¹⁰⁴, , respectively. These results suggest that while diffusion is too rapid to explain the purported diurnal cycle in water content of the atmosphere, adsorption is efficient and rapid, and does provide an effective mechanism to explain such a cycle. The present diffusion data suggest that very thin, <50 pr μm, shallow, 10 mm, ice deposits would last for >10 h at ∼224 K, just above the freezing point of saturated CaCl₂. Temperatures can remain above ∼224 K over most of the planet, which means that water, even as saturated brine, will sublimate before the freezing point is reached and liquid could be formed. On the other hand, 1 m ice layers below 1 m of fine-grained basaltic regolith at 235 K and 10 Pa of atmospheric water could last 600 to 1300 years. At deeper depths and lower temperatures, ice could last since the last major obliquity change 400,000 years ago.     

Heat flow, lenticulae spacing, and possibility of convection in the ice shell of europa

Two opposing models to explain the geological features observed on Europa’s surface have been proposed. The thin-shell model states that the ice shell is only a few kilometers thick, transfers heat by conduction only, and can become locally thinner until it exposes an underlying ocean on the satellite’s surface. According to the thick-shell model, the ice shell may be several tens of kilometers thick and have a lower convective layer, above which there is a cold stagnant lid that dissipates heat by conduction. Whichever the case, from magnetic data there is strong support for the presence of a layer of salty liquid water under the ice. The present study was performed to examine whether the possibility of convection is theoretically consistent with surface heat flows of ∼100-200 mW m⁻², deduced from a thin brittle lithosphere, and with the typical spacing of 15-23 km proposed for the features usually known as lenticulae. It was obtained that under Europa’s ice shell conditions convection could occur and also account for high heat flows due to tidal heating of the convective (nearly isothermal) interior, but only if the dominant water ice rheology is superplastic flow (with activation energy of 49 kJ mol⁻¹; this is the rheology thought dominant in the warm interior of the ice shell). In this case the ice shell would be ∼15-50 km thick. Furthermore, in this scenario explaining the origin of the lenticulae related to convective processes requires ice grain size close to 1 mm and ice thickness around 15-20 km.     

Nitrate in the Greenland ice sheet in the years following the 1908 tunguska event

The Tunguska event on 30 June 1908 has been subjected to much speculation within different fields of research. Publication of the results of the 1961 expedition to the Tunguska area (Florensky, 1963) supports that a cometary impact caused the event. Based on this interpretation, calculations of the impactor energy release and explosion height have been reported by Ben-Menahem (1975), and velocity, mass, and density of the impactor by Petrov and Stulov (1975). Park (1978) and Turco et al., 1981, Turco et al., 1982, used these numbers to calculate a production of ca. 30 × 10⁶ tons of NO during atmospheric transit. This paper presents a high-resolution study of nitrate concentration in the Greenland ice sheet in ca. 10 years covering the Tunguska event. No signs of excess nitrate are found in three ice cores from two different sites in Greenland in the years following the Tunguska event. By comparing these results with results for other aerosols generally found in the ice, the lack of excess NO₃^? following the Tunguska event can be interpreted as indicating that the impactor nitrate production calculated by Park (1978) and Turco et al., 1981, Turco et al., 1982 are 1–2 orders of magnitude too high. To explain this it is suggested, from other lines of reasoning, that the impactor density determined by Petrov and Stulov (1975) probably is too low.     

The measurement of ozone concentrations at high latitude during the twilight

The ozone height profile in the Arctic, at the end of the winter, has been measured up to an altitude of 100 km using a combined solar occultation and 1.27 μ oxygen emission technique. The typical two layer structure has been observed with a high altitude minimum near 80 km and a maximum at 86 km. The measured concentration in this ozone bulge was 5.1 × 10⁷cm^?3, typical of that measured at 52°N for the summer months. It is suggested that this reduced ozone concentration may have been associated with a stratospheric warming event that was in progress at the time of the measurement.     

An estimate of the glacier ice volume in the Swiss Alps

Changes in glacier volume are important for questions linked to sea-level rise, water resource management, and tourism industry. With the ongoing climate warming, the retreat of mountain glaciers is a major concern. Predictions of glacier changes, necessarily need the present ice volume as initial condition, and for transient modelling, the ice thickness distribution has to be known. In this paper, a method based on mass conservation and principles of ice flow dynamics is applied to 62 glaciers located in the Swiss Alps for estimating their ice thickness distribution. All available direct ice thickness measurements are integrated. The ice volumes are referenced to the year 1999 by means of a mass balance time series. The results are used to calibrate a volume–area scaling relation, and the coefficients obtained show good agreement with values reported in the literature. We estimate the total ice volume present in the Swiss Alps in the year 1999 to be 74 ± 9 km³. About 12% of this volume was lost between 1999 and 2008, whereas the extraordinarily warm summer 2003 caused a volume loss of about 3.5%.     

Comparison of the Characteristics of Magnetic Clouds and Magnetic Cloud-Like Structures for the Events of 1995 – 2003

Using nine years of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from the Wind mission, we investigated the characteristics of both magnetic clouds (MCs) and magnetic cloud-like structures (MCLs) during 1995 – 2003. A MCL structure is an event that is identified by an automatic scheme (Lepping, Wu, and Berdichevsky, Ann. Geophys. 23, 2687, 2005) with the same criteria as for a MC, but it is not usually identifiable as a flux rope by using the MC (Burlaga et al., J. Geophys. Res. 86, 6673, 1981) fitting model developed by Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga (Geophys. Res. Lett. 95(11), 957, 1990). The average occurrence rate is 9.5 for MCs and 13.6 for MCLs per year for the overall period of interest, and there were 82 MCs and 122 MCLs identified during this period. The characteristics of MCs and MCL structures are as follows: (1) The average duration, Δt, of MCs is 21.1 h, which is 40% longer than that for MCLs (Δt=15 h); (2) the average (minimum B _z found in MC/MCL measured in geocentric solar ecliptic coordinates) is −10.2 nT for MCs and −6 nT for MCLs; (3) the average Dst_min (minimum Dst caused by MCs/MCLs) is −82 nT for MCs and −37 nT for MCLs; (4) the average solar wind velocity is 453 km s⁻¹ for MCs and 413 km s⁻¹ for MCLs; (5) the average thermal speed is 24.6 km s⁻¹ for MCs and 27.7 km s⁻¹ for MCLs; (6) the average magnetic field intensity is 12.7 nT for MCs and 9.8 nT for MCLs; (7) the average solar wind density is 9.4 cm⁻³ for MCs and 6.3 cm⁻³ for MCLs; and (8) a MC is one of the most important interplanetary structures capable of causing severe geomagnetic storms. The longer duration, more intense magnetic field and higher solar wind speed of MCs, compared to those properties of the MCLs, are very likely the major reasons for MCs generally causing more severe geomagnetic storms than MCLs. But the fact that a MC is an important interplanetary structure with respect to geomagnetic storms is not new (e.g., Zhang and Burlaga, J. Geophys. Res. 93, 2511, 1988; Bothmer, ESA SP-535, 419, 2003).     

Chandra observations of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 during the Deep Impact campaign

We present results from the Chandra X-ray Observatory's extensive campaign studying Comet 9P/Tempel 1 (T1) in support of NASA's Deep Impact (DI) mission. T1 was observed for ∼295 ks between 30th June and 24th July 2005, and continuously for ∼64 ks on July 4th during the impact event. X-ray emission qualitatively similar to that observed for the collisionally thin Comet 2P/Encke system [Lisse, C.M., Christian, D.J., Dennerl, K., Wolk, S.J., Bodewits, D., Hoekstra, R., Combi, M.R., Mäkinen, T., Dryer, M., Fry, C.D., Weaver, H., 2005b. Astrophys. J. 635 (2005) 1329-1347] was found, with emission morphology centered on the nucleus and emission lines due to C, N, O, and Ne solar wind minor ions. The comet was relatively faint on July 4th, and the total increase in X-ray flux due to the Deep Impact event was small, ∼20% of the immediate pre-impact value, consistent with estimates that the total coma neutral gas release due to the impact was 5×¹⁰⁶ kg (∼10 h of normal emission). No obvious prompt X-ray flash due to the impact was seen. Extension of the emission in the direction of outflow of the ejecta was observed, suggesting the presence of continued outgassing of this material. Variable spectral features due to changing solar wind flux densities and charge states were clearly seen. Two peaks, much stronger than the man-made increase due to Deep Impact, were found in the observed X-rays on June 30th and July 8th, 2005, and are coincident with increases in the solar wind flux arriving at the comet. Modeling of the Chandra data using observed gas production rates and ACE solar wind ion fluxes with a CXE mechanism for the emission is consistent, overall, with the temporal and spectral behavior expected for a slow, hot wind typical of low latitude emission from the solar corona interacting with the comet's neutral coma, with intermittent impulsive events due to solar flares and coronal mass ejections.     

Interpretation of the carbon abundance in Saturn measured by Cassini

Spectral observations of Saturn from the far infrared spectrometer aboard the Cassini spacecraft [Flasar, F.M., et al., 2005. Temperatures, winds, and composition in the Saturnian system. Science 307, 1247-1251] have revealed that the C/H ratio in the planet is in fact about twice higher than previously derived from ground based observations and in agreement with the C/H value derived from Voyager IRIS by Courtin et al. [1984. The composition of Saturn's atmosphere at northern temperate latitudes from Voyager IRIS spectra - NH₃, PH₃, C₂H₂, C₂H₆, CH₃D, CH₄, and the Saturnian D/H isotopic ratio. Astrophys. J. 287, 899-916]. The implications of this measurement are reanalyzed in the present report on the basis that volatiles observed in cometary atmospheres, namely CO₂, CH₄, NH₃ and H₂S may have been trapped as solids in the feeding zone of the planet. CH₄ and H₂S may have been in the form of clathrate hydrates while CO₂ presumably condensed in the cooling solar nebula. Carbon may also have been incorporated in organics. Conditions of temperature and pressure ease the hydratation of NH₃. Such icy grains were included in planetesimals which subsequently collapsed into the hydrogen envelope of the planet, then resulting in C, N and S enrichments with respect to the solar abundance. Our calculations are consistent, within error bars, with observed elemental abundances on Saturn provided that the carbon trapped in planetesimals was mainly in the form of CH₄ clathrate and CO₂ ice (and maybe as organics) while nitrogen was in the form of NH₃ hydrate. Our approach has implications on the possible pattern of noble gases in Saturn, since we predict that contrary to what is observed in Jupiter, Ar and Kr should be in solar abundance while Xe might be strongly oversolar. The only way to verify this scenario is to send a probe making in situ mass spectrometer measurements. Our scenario also predicts that the ¹⁴N/¹⁵N ratio should be somewhat smaller in Saturn than measured in Jupiter by Galileo.     

A summary of major solar proton events

Solar proton events have been routinely detected by satellites since the 20th solar cycle; however, before that time only very major proton events were detected at the Earth. Even though the detection thresholds differed between the 19th and more recent cycles, more than 200 solar proton events with a flux of over 10 particles (cm² s ster)^–1 above 10 MeV have been recorded at the Earth in the last three solar cycles. At least 15% of these events had protons with energies greater than 450 MeV detected at the Earth. Other than an increase in solar proton event occurrence with increasing solar cycle, no recognizable pattern could be identified between the occurrence of solar proton events and the solar cycle. The knowledge we have gained from the data acquired over the past 40 years illustrates the difficulty in extrapolating back in time to infer the number and intensity of major solar proton events at the Earth.The U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, royalty-free license to publish or reproduce the published form of this contribution, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.     

Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond

In the previous study (Hiremath, Astron. Astrophys. 452:591, 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755–1996), long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles and by an autoregressive model, we predict the amplitude and period of the present cycle 23 and future fifteen solar cycles. The period of present solar cycle 23 is estimated to be 11.73 years and it is expected that onset of next sunspot activity cycle 24 might starts during the period 2008.57±0.17 (i.e., around May–September 2008). The predicted period and amplitude of the present cycle 23 are almost similar to the period and amplitude of the observed cycle. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles. Important predictions are: (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 (±11), (ii) the period and amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 (±11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (2030–2042 AD), 27 (2042–2054 AD), 34 (2118–2127 AD), 37 (2152–2163 AD) and 38 (2163–2176 AD), the sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089–2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar cycles vary from 8.65 years for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 years for the cycle 35.     

Synthesis of hydrogen peroxide in water ice by ion irradiation

We present infrared absorption studies on the effects of 50-100 keV Ar⁺ and 100 keV H⁺ ion irradiation of water ice films at 20-120 K. The results support the view that energetic ions can produce hydrogen peroxide on the surface of icy satellites and rings in the outer Solar System, and on ice mantles on interstellar grains. The ion energies are characteristic of magnetospheric ions at Jupiter, and therefore the results support the idea that radiolysis by ion impact is the source of the H₂O₂ detected on Europa by the Galileo infrared spectrometer. We found that Ar⁺ ions, used to mimic S⁺ impacts, are roughly as efficient as H⁺ ions in producing H₂O₂, and that 100 keV H⁺ ions can produce hydrogen peroxide at 120 K. The synthesized hydrogen peroxide remained stable while warming the ice film after irradiation; the column density of the formed H₂O₂ is constant until the ice film begins to desorb, but the concentration of H₂O₂ increases with time during desorption because the water sublimes at a faster rate. Comparing the shape of the 3.5-μm absorption feature of H₂O₂ to the one measured on Europa shows excellent agreement in both shape and position, further indicating that the H₂O₂ detected on Europa is likely caused by radiolysis of water ice.     

Global distribution and migration of subsurface ice on mars

A thermal/diffusive model of H₂O kinetics and equilibrium was developed to investigate the long-term evolution and depth distribution of subsurface ice on Mars. The model quantitatively takes into account (1) obliquity variations; (2) eccentricity variations; (3) long-term changes in the solar luminosity; (4) variations in the argument of subsolar meridian (in planetocentric equatorial coordinates); (5) albedo changes at higher latitudes due to seasonal phase changes of CO₂ and the varying extent of CO₂ ice cover; (6) planetary internal heat flow; (7) temperature variations in the regolith as a function of depth, time, and latitude due to the above factors; (8) atmospheric pressure variations over a 10⁴-year time scale; (9) the effects of factors (1) through (5) on seasonal polar cap temperatures; and (10) Knudsen and molecular diffusion of H₂O through the regolith. The migration of H₂O into or out of the regolith is determined by two boundary conditions, the H₂O vapor pressure at the subsurface ice boundary and the annual average H₂O concentration at the base of the atmosphere. These are controlled respectively by the annual average regolith temperature at the given depth and seasonal temperatures at the polar cap. Starting from an arbitrary initial uniform depth distribution of subsurface ice, H₂O fluxes into or out of the regolith are calculated for 100 selected obliquity cycles, each representing a different epoch in Mars' history. The H₂O fluxes are translated into ice thicknesses and extrapolated over time to give the subsurface ice depth as a function of latitude and time. The results show that obliquity variations influence annual average regolith temperatures in varying degrees, depending on latitude, with the greatest effect at the poles and almost no effect at 40° lat. Insolation changes at the pole, due to obliquity, argument of subsolar meridian, and eccentricity variations can produce enormous atmospheric H₂O concentration variations of ≈6 orders of magnitude over an obliquity cycle. Superimposed on these cyclic variations is a slow, monotonic change due to the increasing solar luminosity. Albedo changes at the polar cap due to seasonal phase changes of CO₂ and the varying thickness of the CO₂ ice cover are critically important in determining annual average atmospheric H₂O concentrations. Despite the strongly oscillating character of the boundary conditions, only small amounts of H₂O are exchanged between the regolith and the atmosphere per obliquity cycle (<10 g/cm²). The net result of H₂O migration is that the regolith below 30–40° lat is depleted of subsurface ice, while the regolith above 30–40° lat contains permanent ice due to the depth of penetration of the annual thermal wave. This result is supported by recent morphological studies. The rate of migration of H₂O is strongly dependent on average pore/capillary radius for which we have assumed values of 1 and 10 μm. We estimate that the H₂O ice removed from the regolith would produce a permanent ice cap with a volume between 2 × 10⁶ and 6 × 10⁶ km³. This generally agrees with estimates deduced from deflationary features at lower latitudes, depositional features at higher latitudes, and the mass of the polar caps.     

Cosmogenic nuclides in the Košice meteorite: Experimental investigations and Monte Carlo simulations

Results of nondestructive gamma‐ray analyses of cosmogenic radionuclides (⁷Be, ²²Na, ²⁶Al, ⁴⁶Sc, ⁴⁸V, ⁵⁴Mn, ⁵⁶Co, ⁵⁷Co, ⁵⁸Co, and ⁶⁰Co) in 19 fragments of the Ko?ice meteorite are presented and discussed. The activities varied mainly with position of fragments in the meteoroid body, and with fluxes of cosmic‐ray particles in the space affecting radionuclides with different half‐lives. Monte Carlo simulations of the production rates of ⁶⁰Co and ²⁶Al compared with experimental data indicate that the pre‐atmospheric radius of the meteoroid was 50 ± 5 cm. In two Ko?ice fragments, He, Ne, and Ar concentrations and isotopic compositions were also analyzed. The noble‐gas cosmic‐ray exposure age of the Ko?ice meteorite is 5–7 Myr, consistent with the conspicuous peak (or doublet peak) in the exposure age histogram of H chondrites. One sample likely contains traces of implanted solar wind Ne, suggesting that Ko?ice is a regolith breccia. The agreement between the simulated and observed ²⁶Al activities indicate that the meteoroid was mostly irradiated by a long‐term average flux of galactic cosmic rays of 4.8 particles cm^?2 s^?1, whereas the short‐lived radionuclide activities are more consistent with a flux of 7.0 protons cm^?2 s^?1 as a result of the low solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays during the last few years before the meteorite fall.     

Solar Magnetic Activity and Total Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum

We develop a model for estimating solar total irradiance since 1600 AD using the sunspot number record as input, since this is the only intrinsic record of solar activity extending back far enough in time. Sunspot number is strongly correlated, albeit nonlinearly with the 10.7-cm radio flux (F _10.7), which forms a continuous record back to 1947. This enables the nonlinear relationship to be estimated with usable accuracy and shows that relationship to be consistent over multiple solar activity cycles. From the sunspot number record we estimate F _10.7 values back to 1600 AD. F _10.7 is linearly correlated with the total amount of magnetic flux in active regions, and we use it as input to a simple cascade model for the other magnetic flux components. The irradiance record is estimated by using these magnetic flux components plus a very rudimentary model for the modulation of energy flow to the photosphere by the subphotospheric magnetic flux reservoir feeding the photospheric magnetic structures. Including a Monte Carlo analysis of the consequences of measurement and fitting errors, the model indicates the mean irradiance during the Maunder Minimum was about 1 ± 0.4 W m⁻² lower than the mean irradiance over the last solar activity cycle.     

The influence of solar activity on the rainfall over India: Cycle-to-cycle variations

We use 130 years data for studying correlative effects due to solar cycle and activity phenomena on the occurrence of rainfall over India. For the period of different solar cycles, we compute the correlation coefficients and significance of correlation coefficients for the seasonal months of Jan–Feb (JF), Mar–May (MAM), June–Sept (JJAS) and Oct–Dec (OND) and,annual mean data. We find that: (i) with a moderate-to-high significance, Indian rainfall is correlated with the sunspot activity and, (ii) there is an overall trend that during the period of low sunspot activity, occurrence of rainfall is high compared to the period of high sunspot activity. We speculate in this study a possible physical connection between the occurrence of the rainfall and the sunspot activities and, the flux of galactic cosmic rays. Some of the negative correlations between the occurrences of the sunspot and rainfall activities obtained for different solar cycle periods are interpreted as effects of aerosols on the rain forming clouds due to either intermittent volcanic eruptions or due to intrusion of interstellar dust particles in the Earth’s atmosphere.