Drought analysis of monthly hydrological sequences: a case study of Canadian rivers

Abstract

Two parameters of importance in hydrological droughts viz. the longest duration, L_T and the largest severity, S_T (in standardized form) over a desired return period, T years, have been analysed for monthly flow sequences of Canadian rivers. An important point in the analysis is that monthly sequences are non-stationary (periodic-stochastic) as against annual flows, which fulfil the conditions of stochastic stationarity. The parameters mean, μ, standard deviation, σ (or coefficient of variation), lag1 serial correlation, ρ, and skewness, γ (which is helpful in identifying the probability distribution function) of annual flow sequences, when used in the analytical relationships, are able to predict expected values of the longest duration, E(L_T ) in years and the largest standardized severity, E(S_T ). For monthly flow sequences, there are 12 sets of these parameters and thus the issue is how to involve these parameters to derive the estimates of E(L_T ) and E(S_T ). Moreover, the truncation level (i.e. the monthly mean value) varies from month to month. The analysis in this paper demonstrates that the drought analysis on an annual basis can be extended to monthly droughts simply by standardizing the flows for each month. Thus, the variable truncation levels corresponding to the mean monthly flows were transformed into one unified truncation level equal to zero. The runs of deficits in the standardized sequences are treated as drought episodes and thus the theory of runs forms an essential tool for analysis. Estimates of the above parameters (denoted as μ_av, σ_av, ρ_av, and γ_av) for use in the analytical relationships were obtained by averaging 12 monthly values for each parameter. The product- and L-moment ratio analyses indicated that the monthly flows in the Canadian rivers fit the gamma probability distribution reasonably well, which resulted in the satisfactory prediction of E(L_T ). However, the prediction of E(S_T ) tended to be more satisfactory with the assumption of a Markovian normal model and the relationship E(S_T ) ≈ E(L_T ) was observed to perform better.     

Analytical procedures for weekly hydrological droughts: a case of Canadian rivers

Abstract

Two entities of importance in hydrological droughts, viz. the longest duration, L_T , and the largest magnitude, M_T (in standardized terms) over a desired time period (which could also correspond to a specific return period) T, have been analysed for weekly flow sequences of Canadian rivers. Analysis has been carried out in terms of week-by-week standardized values of flow sequences, designated as SHI (standardized hydrological index). The SHI sequence is truncated at the median level for identification and evaluation of expected values of the above random variables, E(L_T ) and E(M_T ). SHI sequences tended to be strongly autocorrelated and are modelled as autoregressive order-1, order-2 or autoregressive moving average order-1,1. The drought model built on the theorem of extremes of random numbers of random variables was found to be less satisfactory for the prediction of E(L_T ) and E(M_T ) on a weekly basis. However, the model has worked well on a monthly (weakly Markovian) and an annual (random) basis. An alternative procedure based on a second-order Markov chain model provided satisfactory prediction of E(L_T ). Parameters such as the mean, standard deviation (or coefficient of variation), and lag-1 serial correlation of the original weekly flow sequences (obeying a gamma probability distribution function) were used to estimate the simple and first-order drought probabilities through closed-form equations. Second-order probabilities have been estimated based on the original flow sequences as well as SHI sequences, utilizing a counting method. The E(M_T ) can be predicted as a product of drought intensity (which obeys the truncated normal distribution) and E(L_T ) (which is based on a mixture of first- and second-order Markov chains).

Citation Sharma, T. C. & Panu, U. S. (2010) Analytical procedures for weekly hydrological droughts: a case of Canadian rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 79–92.     

Variation of lunar and solar geomagnetic tides with sunspot and geomagnetic activity

Summary Solar and lunar geomagnetic tides inH at Alibag have been determined by spectral analysis of discrete Fourier transforms following the method of Black and the well-known Chapman-Miller method. The seasonal variation inL ₂(H) is opposite to that inL ₂(D) with maximum in thed season and minimum in thej season. In bothH andD the enhancement due to sunspot activity is larger in lunar tide than in solar tide. Surprisingly, the enhancement due to magnetic activity is greater inL ₂(H) than inS ₁(H), while the contrary is true for declination. It is inferred that there is a local time component of the storm time variation contrary to the view expressed by Green and Malin. The enhancements in amplitudesL ₂ andS ₁ inH andD, due to sunspot activity and due to magnetic activity, have been separated. The results show that the amplitude at zero sunspot number increases with magnetic activity in all the four parameters, while the enhancement due to sunspot activity at different levels of magnetic activity decreases with increase ofK _p. But if bothK _p andR are increasing, whenK _p increases enhancement due toR decreases and whenR increases enhancement due toK _p decreases.     

城区河流中沉水植物分布特征及其影响因素分析——以宁波城区内河为例

以宁波城区内河为研究对象,调研沉水植物在154条河中的分布情况,实测63个代表样点的水环境指标,分析秋、冬季沉水植物群落变化及生理变化.研究发现：宁波城区内仅有8条河流单一地生长有沉水植物轮叶黑藻（Hydrilla verticillata）、苦草（Vallisneria natans）和金鱼藻（Ceratophyllum demersum）中的1种;3种沉水植物分布与溶解氧、氧化还原电位和pH均呈显著正相关,与水深、氨氮（NH₃-N）和总磷（TP）浓度均呈显著负相关;有沉水植物分布的河道水深较浅（约0.9 m）、水质更优（普遍优于V类）;与秋季相比,冬季3种植物的群落盖度均下降,轮叶黑藻和苦草体内丙二醛、过氧化氢含量升高,暗示植物细胞受损;而3种沉水植物均具有一定耐低温胁迫能力,主要表现为体内抗氧化酶活性、可溶性蛋白和可溶性糖含量升高.结果表明,水深、NH₃-N、TP、溶解氧以及低温可能会影响城区内河沉水植物的生长与分布.     

Review of methods used to estimate catchment response time for the purpose of peak discharge estimation

Abstract

Large errors in peak discharge estimates at catchment scales can be ascribed to errors in the estimation of catchment response time. The time parameters most frequently used to express catchment response time are the time of concentration (T_C), lag time (T_L) and time to peak (T_P). This paper presents a review of the time parameter estimation methods used internationally, with selected comparisons in medium and large catchments in the C5 secondary drainage region in South Africa. The comparison of different time parameter estimation methods with recommended methods used in South Africa confirmed that the application of empirical methods, with no local correction factors, beyond their original developmental regions, must be avoided. The T_C is recognized as the most frequently used time parameter, followed by T_L. In acknowledging this, as well as the basic assumptions of the approximations T_L = 0.6T_C and T_C ≈ T_P, along with the similarity between the definitions of the T_P and the conceptual T_C, it was evident that the latter two time parameters should be further investigated to develop an alternative approach to estimate representative response times that result in improved estimates of peak discharge at these catchment scales.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Qiang Zhang     

Lunar and luni-solar variations of the geomagnetic field in the Indian region

Summary Lunar and luni-solar geomagnetic components have been computed upto four harmonics for low latitude station Alibag, outside equatorial electrojet belt, and the equatorial electrojet stations Annamalainagar, Kodaikanal and Trivandrum in the south Indian region. The computations are confined to data of very high solar activity period 1958–61. Amplitudes of lunar semidiurnal component (L ₂), in the horizontal intensity (H), undergo an equatorial enhancement. Phase difference of 2 hrs is noticed inL ₂ (H) between nonelectrojet and electrojet stations. In the vertical intensity (Z), L ₂ is maximum ine andj-seasons at Trivandrum, close to the magnetic equator. Ind-season, however, maximumL ₂ (Z) occurs at Annamalainagar (dip 5°.4N). The phase difference between the electrojet and nonelectrojet stations observed inL ₂ (H) is not noticed inL ₂ (Z). The differential vertical upward drift motion of charged particles may explain the observed phase difference inL ₂ (H). Seasonal variations in amplitudes and times of maxima are noticed at all the stations inL ₂ (H) andL ₂ (Z). Similar variation is also noticed at Alibag inL ₂ of declination (D).     

Introductory notes on shock remanent magnetization and shock demagnetization of igneous rocks

Summary Effects of mechanical shocks of about 0.5 msec in duration on the remanent magnetization of igneous rocks are experimentally studied. The remanent magnetization acquired by applying a shock (S) in the presence of a magnetic field (H), which is symbolically expressed asJ _R (H₊S H_o), is very large compared with the ordinary isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) acquired in the same magnetic field.J _R (H₊S H_o) is proportional to the piezo-remanent magnetization,J _R (H₊P₊P_o H_o).The effect of applyingS in advance of an acquisition of IRM is represented symbolically byJ _R (S H₊ H_o).J _R (S H₊ H_o) can become much larger than the ordinary IRM, and is proportional to the advance effect of pressure on IRM,J _R(P₊ P₀ H₊ H₀).The effect of shockS applied on IRM in non-magnetic space is represented by the shock-demagnetization effect,J _R(H₊ H₀ S), which also is proportional toJ _R(H₊ H₀ P₊ P₀).Because, the duration of a shock is very short, a single shock effect cannot achieve the final steady state. The effect ofn-time repeated shocks, is represented byJ ₀+J ^*(n), whereJ ₀ means the immediate effect and J ^*(n) represent the resultant effect of repeating, which is of mathematical expression proportional to [1–exp {–(n–1)}].

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Zusammenfassung Die Effekte des mechanischen Stosses mit der Dauer von etwa 0.5 ms auf der remanenten Magnetisierung wurden experimentell nachgesucht. Das erworbene Remanenz der Magnetisierung nach dem Stoss (S) unter dem magnetischen Feld (H), das hier symbolisch alsJ _R(H₊ SH₀) bezechnet wird, ist sehr stark im Vergleich mit der normalen isothermischen remanenten Magnetisierung (IRM) unter demselben magnetischen Feld.J _R(H₊ S H₀) ist im Verhältnis zur piezoremanenten Magnetisierung,J _R(H₊ P₊ P₀ H₀).Der Effekt vom Stoss vor der Erwerbung von IRM wird symbolisch alsJ _R(S H₊ H₀) bezeichnet.J _R(S H₊ H₀) kann viel stärker als die normale IRM werden, im verhältnis zum Effekt des vorausgegebenen Drucks auf IRMJ _R(P₊ P₀ H₊ H₀).Der Effekt des Stosses auf IRM im Raum ohne magnetisches Feld wird mit dem Stossentmagnetisierungseffekt dargestellt,J _R(H₊ H₀ S), der auch proportional zuJ _R(H₊ H₀ P₊ P₀) ist.Da die Dauer einzelnen Stosses sehr kurz ist, kann der Effekt des einmaligen Stosses den endgültigen stabilen Zustand nicht erreichen. Der Effekt nachn-maligen wiederholten Stossen wird alsJ ₀+J ^*(n) bezeichnet, wobeiJ ₀ den unverzüglichen Effekt bedeutet, und J ^*(n) beschreibt den resultanten Effekt der Stosswiederholung, dessen mathematische Darstellung proporational zu [1–exp {–(n–1)}] ist.

     

Analysis of rill step–pool morphology and its comparison with stream case

In this paper, the morphology of step–pool features is analysed using rill measurements and literature data for streams. Close-range photogrammetry was used to carry out ground measurements on rills with step–pool units, shaped on a plot having slope equal to 14, 15, 22, 24 and 26%. Data were used to compare the relationships between H/L, in which H is the step height and L is the step length, and the mean gradient of the step–pool sequence, S_m, for streams or the slope of the step–pool unit, S, for rills. The relationship of H/L against S_m is widely used to test the occurrence of the maximum flow resistance condition in streams, which is associated with the range 1 ≤ (H/L)/S_m ≤ 2. Further analyses were carried out to compare both the formation process and the profile of the pool in rills with those related to streams. Moreover, for a single rill channel, an analysis of flow characteristics expressed in terms of Darcy–Weisbach friction factor and Froude number was developed. The results allowed us to state: (i) the relationships of H/L versus S_m and S are quite similar and the steepness ratio for streams, (H/L)/S_m, and for rills, (H/L)/S, generally ranges from 1 to 2; (ii) the formation process and the profile of the pool in rills are not consistent with those occurring in streams; (iii) in the rills, the longitudinal size of the pool is dominant with respect to the maximum scour depth; (iv) the presence of a sequence of step–pool units within a rill segment noticeably increases flow resistance compared to segments with a flat bed; (v) the Froude number of the flow over the sequence of step–pool units in rills is slightly below the range of 0.8–1 corresponding to the maximum flow resistance in step–pool units.     

A prediction model for horizontal run-out distance of landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake

The peak ground acceleration (PGA), the volume of a sliding mass V, the height of a mountain H _L and the slope angle θ of a mountain are four important parameters affecting the horizontal run-out distance of a landslide L. Correlations among them are studied statistically based on field investigations from 67 landslides triggered by the ground shaking and other factors during the Wenchuan earthquake, and then a prediction model for horizontal run-out distance L is developed in this study. This model gives due consideration to the implications of the above four parameters on the horizontal run-out distance L and the validity of the model is verified by the Donghekou and Magong Woqian landslides. At the same time, the advantages of the model are shown by comparing it with two other common prediction methods. The major findings drawn from the analyses and comparisons are: (1) an exponential relationship exists between L and log V, L and log H _L, L and log PGA separately, but a negative exponential relationship exists between L and log tanθ, which agrees with the statistical results; and (2) according to the analysis results of the relative relationship between the height of a mountain (H) and the place where the landslides occur, the probabilities at distances of 2H/3-H, H/3-2H/3, and 0-H/3 are 70.8%, 15.4%, and 13.8%, respectively, revealing that most landslides occurred at a distance of H/2-H. This prediction model can provide an effective technical support for the prevention and mitigation of landslide hazards.     

THE INDUCED POLARIZATION RESPONSE OF A THIN HIGHLY-CONDUCTIVE ORE BODY*

Consider a lamina of ore of thickness 2t whose electrical resistivity p₂ is much smaller than the resistivity p₁ of the surrounding host rock. The induced polarization response of such an ore body is investigated under the assumption that it arises from the variation of p₂ with the frequency of measurement. Let p2l and p2h be the resistivities of the ore-body for the low and high frequencies of measurement and L a length of the order of the distance between the transmitting electrodes. A theory is developed under the assumptions that each of the quantities t/L, p2l/p1, p2h/p1, Lp2l/2tp1, and Lp2h/tp1 is small. The main conclusion is that the frequency effect parameter P is given approximately by P=cL(p2l ? p2h)/2tp1, where the constant c is independent of t, p2l, p2h, and p1. Thus for a family of similar ore bodies having differing values of t, P will be the larger the smaller t. Detailed results are given for a semi-infinite submerged dipping dyke and the two dimensional Wenner array.     

Test of Hack's slope to bed material relationship in the Southern Eifel Uplands,Germany

The local reach gradient of small gravel bed rivers (drainage area 0-8-110 km²) in the Eifel, West Germany, is adjusted to transport the river bed sediments. Transport of gravel becomes possible under high flow conditions (Shields entrainment factor ≈-03). Mean bed material size for riffle sections increases with distance downstream. For small drainage areas channel slope is a negative exponential function of drainage area, while for the larger region the additional influence of bedload size has to be considered. Good agreement with Hack's data (1957) for Virginia and Maryland, U.S.A., is achieved (S = 0.0066 (D₅₀/A)^{- 40.}, r = 0.67).     

Attenuation of High Frequency P and S Waves in the Gujarat Region,India

The local earthquake waveforms recorded on broadband seismograph network of Institute of Seismological Research in Gujarat, India have been analyzed to understand the attenuation of high frequency (2–25 Hz) P and S waves in the region. The frequency dependent relationships for quality factors for P (Q _P) and S (Q _S) waves have been obtained using the spectral ratio method for three regions namely, Kachchh, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat. The earthquakes recorded at nine stations of Kachchh, five stations of Saurashtra and one station in mainland Gujarat have been used for this analysis. The estimated relations for average Q _P and Q _S are: Q _P = (105 ± 2) f ^{0.82 ± 0.01}, Q _S = (74 ± 2) f ^{1.06 ± 0.01} for Kachchh region; Q _P = (148 ± 2) f ^{0.92 ± 0.01}, Q _S = (149 ± 14) f ^{1.43 ± 0.05} for Saurashtra region and Q _P = (163 ± 7) f ^{0.77 ± 0.03}, Q _S = (118 ± 34) f ^{0.65 ± 0.14} for mainland Gujarat region. The low Q (<200) and high exponent of f (>0.5) as obtained from present analysis indicate the predominant seismic activities in the region. The lowest Q values obtained for the Kachchh region implies that the area is relatively more attenuative and heterogeneous than other two regions. A comparison between Q _S estimated in this study and coda Q (Qc) previously reported by others for Kachchh region shows that Q _C > Q _S for the frequency range of interest showing the enrichment of coda waves and the importance of scattering attenuation to the attenuation of S waves in the Kachchh region infested with faults and fractures. The Q _S/Q _P ratio is found to be less than 1 for Kachchh and Mainland Gujarat regions and close to unity for Saurashtra region. This reflects the difference in the geological composition of rocks in the regions. The frequency dependent relations developed in this study could be used for the estimation of earthquake source parameters as well as for simulating the strong earthquake ground motions in the region.     

A probabilistic model of seismicity: Kamchatka earthquakes

The catalog of Kamchatka earthquakes is represented as a probability space of three objects {Ω, $ \tilde F $ \tilde F P}. Each earthquake is treated as an outcome ω _i in the space of elementary events Ω whose cardinality for the period under consideration is given by the number of events. In turn, ω _i is characterized by a system of random variables, viz., energy class k_i, latitude φ _i , longitude λ _i , and depth h _i . The time of an outcome has been eliminated from this system in this study. The random variables make up subsets in the set $ \tilde F $ \tilde F and are defined by multivariate distributions, either by the distribution function $ \tilde F $ \tilde F (φ, λ, h, k) or by the probability density f(φ, λ, h, k) based on the earthquake catalog in hand. The probabilities P are treated in the frequency interpretation. Taking the example of a recurrence relation (RR) written down in the form of a power law for probability density f(k), where the initial value of the distribution function f(k ₀) is the basic data [Bogdanov, 2006] rather than the seismic activity A ₀, we proceed to show that for different intervals of coordinates and time the distribution f _elim(k) of an earthquake catalog with the aftershocks eliminated is identical to the distribution f _full(k), which corresponds to the full catalog. It follows from our calculations that f ₀(k) takes on nearly identical numeral values for different initial values of energy class k ₀ (8 ≤ k ₀ ≤ 12) f(k ₀). The difference decreases with an increasing number of events. We put forward the hypothesis that the values of f(k ₀) tend to cluster around the value 2/3 as the number of events increases. The Kolmogorov test is used to test the hypothesis that statistical recurrence laws are consistent with the analytical form of the probabilistic RR based on a distribution function with the initial value f(k ₀) = 2/3. We discuss statistical distributions of earthquake hypocenters over depth and the epicenters over various areas for several periods     

Asymptotic regimes in unstable miscible displacements in random porous media

We study two asymptotic regimes of unstable miscible displacements in porous media, in the two limits, where a permeability-modified aspect ratio, R_L=L/H(k_v/k_h)^1/2, becomes large or small, respectively. The first limit is known as transverse (or vertical) equilibrium, the second leads to the problem of non-communicating layers (the Dykstra–Parsons problem). In either case, the problem reduces to the solution of a single integro-differential equation. Although at opposite limits of the parameter R_L, the two regimes coincide in the case of equal viscosities, M=1. By comparison with high-resolution simulation we investigate the validity of these two approximations. The evolution of transverse averages, particularly under viscous fingering conditions, depends on R_L. We investigate the development of a model to describe viscous fingering in weakly heterogeneous porous media under transverse equilibrium conditions, and compare with the various existing empirical models (such as the Koval, Todd–Longstaff and Fayers models).     

东江惠州河流段人工基质附着硅藻群落的季节性动态

硅藻群落结构特征是反映河流水生态状态的重要生物指标,但我国多数河流中还缺少硅藻种类组成与季节变化的基本数据.2010年用瓷砖片作为人工基质研究东江惠州河流段附着硅藻群落结构的季节性变化,共鉴定出附着硅藻40属153种(包括亚种和变种),主要的优势属有曲壳藻属(Achnanthidium)、异极藻属(Gomphonema)、直链藻属(Melosira)、舟形藻属(Navicula)、菱形藻属(Nitzschia)、脆杆藻属(Synedra)等.Gomphonema parvulum和Nitzschia palea为该河流段的广泛性藻种,且相对丰度的季节性变化明显.RDA分析表明,水温、DO、NH4+-N、PO34--P、电导率、pH值等对附着硅藻群落结构有重要影响.在丰水期,水量对于运动能力较强的N.palea的相对丰度具有明显的影响.     

A method of estimating the stress exponent in the flow law for rocks using fold shape

On the basis of experiment and theory, we expect rocks to deform in a linear fashion when diffusive processes control deformation, and nonlinearly in most other situations. The geometric characteristics of buckle folds in layered materials are dependent on rheological parameters, and in particular depend strongly on the stress exponent,n _L , of the stiff layers involved. Thus, information about the deformation rocks have undergone and their rheological state during deformation can be obtained by studying fold shapes and strain distributions. This is important because there is uncertainty in extrapolating laboratory-derived flow laws to the very slow natural strain rates and large strains found in nature.We have studied the development of buckle folds in linear and nonlinear materials using finite-element modeling, and interpolated the numerical results to construct plots relating several geometric parameters to variations in power-law exponent,n _L , and viscosity ratio,m, of layer to matrix. Such plots allow for a comparison of the results of numerical models with data for many natural and experimentally-produced folds, and there is consistency among the data for folds produced in physical models, using both linear and nonlinear materials and the numerical simulations. data for folds from the Appalachian Mountains, the Alps and elsewhere, however, suggest high values ofn _L in the flow laws for a number of rock types. The unexpectedly high estimates ofn _L suggest that other factors, such as strain softening or anisotropy, may influence fold shape, and thus complicate the estimation of the rheological properties of rocks.     

Photochemistry of Ions at D-region Altitudes of the Ionosphere: A Review

The current state of knowledge of the D-region ion photochemistry is reviewed. Equations determining production rates of electrons and positive ions by photoionization of atmospheric neutral species are presented and briefly discussed. Considerable attention is given to the progress in the chemistry of O⁺(⁴S), O⁺(²D), O⁺(²P), N⁺, N₂ ⁺, O₂ ⁺, NO⁺, N₄ ⁺, O₄ ⁺, NO⁺(N₂), NO⁺(CO₂), NO⁺(CO₂)₂, NO⁺(H₂O) _n for n = 1–3, NO⁺(H₂O)(N₂), NO⁺(H₂O)₂(N₂), NO⁺(H₂O)(CO₂), NO⁺(H₂O)₂(CO₂), O₂ ⁺(H₂O), H₃O⁺(OH), H⁺(H₂O) _n for n = 1–8, O^?, O₂ ^?, O₃ ^?, O₄ ^?, OH^?, CO₃ ^?, CO₄ ^?, NO₂ ^?, NO₃ ^?, ONOO^?, Cl^?, Cl^?(H₂O), Cl^?(CO₂), HCO₃ ^?, CO₃ ^?(H₂O), CO₃ ^?(H₂O)₂, NO₃ ^?(H₂O), NO₃ ^?(H₂O)₂, OH^?(H₂O), and OH^?(H₂O)₂ ions. The analysis of the D-region rocket ion mass spectrometer measurements shows that, among these ions, O₂ ⁺, NO⁺, NO⁺(H₂O), and H⁺(H₂O) _n for n = 1–7 can make the main contribution to the total positive ion number density, and O^?, O₂ ^?, Cl^?, OH^?(H₂O), CO₃ ^?, HCO₃ ^?, NO₃ ^?, ONOO^?, CO₄ ^?, NO₃ ^?(H₂O), NO₃ ^?(H₂O)₂, and ³⁵Cl^?(CO₂) ions can be responsible for the main contribution to the total negative ion number density. Photodetachment of electrons from O^?, Cl^?, O₂ ^?, O₃ ^?, OH^?, NO₂ ^?, and NO₃ ^?, dissociative electron photodetachment of O₄ ^? and OH^?(H₂O), and photodissociation of O₃ ^?, O₄ ^?, CO₃ ^?, CO₄ ^?, ONOO^?, HCO₃ ^?, CO₃ ^?(H₂O), NO₃ ^?(H₂O), O₂ ⁺(H₂O), O₄ ⁺, N₄ ⁺, NO⁺(H₂O), NO⁺(H₂O)₂, H⁺(H₂O) _n for n = 2–4, NO⁺(N₂), and NO⁺(CO₂) are studied, and the photodetachment and photodissociation rate coefficients are calculated using the current state of knowledge on the cross sections of these processes and fluxes of solar radiation.     

Radiative characteristics in a Japanese forested drainage basin during snowmelt

Radiative characteristics in a forested drainage basin during the snowmelt season were examined in order to better understand and predict snowmelt runoff in the basin. A method for estimating net radiation in a forest (R_nf) was presented using the total sky view factor (P) and the sun path sky view factor (Q). Solar radiation, albedo, atmospheric radiation and air temperature observed at an open site were also required. The total and the sun path sky view factors were determined from all‐sky photographs. Q was expressed as a linear function of P for 0·15<P<0·86 regardless of forest type. For P<0·15, Q was set to zero, and for P>0·86, Q was equal to unity. The short‐wave radiation budget at the forest floor (S_nf) increased with P, whereas the long‐wave radiation budget (L_nf) decreased with P. R_nf increased with P for 0·15<P<0·86, and changed little with P for P<0·15 and P>0·86, as the increase in S_nf was offset by the decrease in L_nf . The forest effect on R_nf was diminished under cloudy or high albedo conditions, because S_nf was easily offset by L_nf . This estimation method was extended to the whole basin, and R_nf was obtained over a watershed covered by trees. At the beginning of the snowmelt season when the albedo remained high, the forest effect became null because the decrease in S_nf was balanced by the increase in L_nf . As the albedo gradually lowered with the advance of the snowmelt season, the decrease in S_nf owing to forest covers exceeded the increase in L_nf , and the forest effect to decrease R_nf became evident. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Morphology of riffle–pool sequences in the River Severn,England

Despite the occurrence of riffle–pool sequences in many rivers there are few data concerning riffle–pool unit morphology. Of many criteria proposed to identify riffle–pool units, only three methods can be regarded as objective and robust. These are the ‘zero‐crossing’, the ‘spectral analysis’ and the ‘control‐point’ methods. In this paper statistics are developed using the first two of these methods to describe the streamwise morphology of 275 riffles and 285 pools which form a continuous 32·1 km reach of the bed of the River Severn in Shropshire, England. Yalin's theoretical relationship between the average riffle:pool unit length ( λ _p) and channel width ( W ), λ _p = 3 W , applies to the River Severn. Reach‐average riffle height ( H ) is a constant proportion of bankfull depth ( h ); typically H ≅ 0·16 h . Riffle height is a positive function of riffle length. Pool depth is a positive function of pool length. However, both riffle length and pool length increase more rapidly than the bed‐level amplitude, such that long riffles or pools are relatively ‘flat’. As channel gradient reduces, bedforms flatten and become more asymmetric as riffle stoss sides and the proximal slope of pools lengthen at the expense of riffle lee sides and pool distal slopes. The statistical relationships between riffle steepness (H/L) and water depth are similar to those for equilibrium subaqueous dunes. The Severn data are consistent with Yalin's theoretical analysis relating riffle bedform length (L _r) to water depth, i.e. L _r = α2π h, wherein α ≅ 1 for steep near‐equilibrium bedforms but α ≅ 2 to 3 as the relative depth decreases and riffles become long, low features. Theoretical consideration and turbulence data indicate that the frequency of coherent turbulent‐flow structures associated with the riffle–pool mixing length in the Severn should be of the order of 50 to 100 s. The morphological similarity of the steepest River Severn riffles with dunes raises intriguing questions with respect to self‐similar, convergent organization of periodic alluvial bedforms and to bedform dynamic classification particularly. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of rockburst probability given seismic energy and factors defined by the expert method of hazard evaluation (MRG)

In this paper we suggest that conditional estimator/predictor of rockburst probability (and rockburst hazard, P ^T (t)) can be approximated with the formula P ^T (t) = P ₁(θ ₁)…P _N (θ _N )·P _dyn ^T (t), where P _dyn ^T (t) is a time-dependent probability of rockburst given only the predicted seismic energy parameters, while P _i (θ _i ) are amplifying coefficients due to local geologic and mining conditions, as defined by the Expert Method of (rockburst) Hazard Evaluation (MRG) known in the Polish mining industry. All the elements of the formula are (approximately) calculable (on-line) and the resulting P ^T value satisfies inequalities 0 ≤ P ^T (t) ≤ 1. As a result, the hazard space (0–1) can be always divided into smaller subspaces (e.g., 0–10⁻⁵, 10⁻⁵–10⁻⁴, 10⁻⁴–10⁻³, 10⁻³–1), possibly named with symbols (e.g., A, B, C, D, …) called “hazard states” — which saves the prediction users from worrying of probabilities. The estimator P ^T can be interpreted as a formal statement of (reformulated) Comprehensive Method of Rockburst State of Hazard Evaluation, well known in Polish mining industry. The estimator P ^T is natural, logically consistent and physically interpretable. Due to full formalization, it can be easily generalized, incorporating relevant information from other sources/methods.