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江苏省气象台现代化天气预报业务流程及管理系统简介 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
在9210工程支持下的现代化天气预报业务流程及管理系统建立了五个子系统,即天气预报信息流程、工作流程、业务工作管理、制作分发、业务监控子系统。由此改变了资料获取、天气预报的制作、会商、传递和预报产品制作及上对下指导的方式,形成预报制作无纸化、预报产品的传递自动化、产品格式的规范化。本文简要介绍了该系统的研制技术及其各项功能和特点。 相似文献
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通过讨论省 (甚至地、市) 气象部门要不要开展数值天气预报工作的问题, 认为不是所有的地方都要开展, 只是那些希望搞科研型业务、迫切要求提高当地高影响天气的预报准确率的地方要开展。对于如何开展的问题, 提出不是去重复类似于主流途径的做法, 而是开辟另类途径, 并阐述了另类途径的内容、方法和意义。强调开展另类途径无需构建模式 (这是非常困难的工作), 只需运转现成的模式, 借助所关心的现象的历史数据来改造现成模式, 使之本地化, 是完全可行的。 相似文献
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以宾西法尼亚大学(PSU)和美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)联合研制的第四代中尺度数值天气预报模式MM4为例,介绍了地(市)级气象台开展数值天气预报的方法和途径,以推动地(市)一级定时、定点、定量精细预报的开展。并为地市级预报人员学习数值天气预报相关知识提供了一条快速入门的方法。 相似文献
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随着科学技术的飞速发展,科学决策水平的逐步提高,人们已不在满足天气预报中的“有”或“无”的定性预报用语了。因此一种新的预报方法—一概率天气预报便应运而生。l概率天气预报的含义及国外现状所谓概率天气预报就是利用现代化技术手段,对未来天气现象出现的可能性,用百分率定量表述的(统计学方法或统计—一动力方法预报某一天气现象可能发生并同时定量地给出其发生的可能性的)一种天气预报方法。目前广泛应用的是降水概率天气预报。首先使用概率天气预报的是一些发达国家和地区。美国国家气象局最早于1965年开始进行概率天气预报… 相似文献
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六盘水市气象局天气科课题组 《贵州气象》1997,21(2):22-22,25
天气预报实时工作站是我市气象业务现代化建设的一个重要组成部份。工作站的建成,为实现我市天气预报业务的实时、高效奠定了良好的基础。该工作站是根据我市通讯的实际情况,引进省内外气象部门地区工作站,通过开发与再开发的过程而完成的。工作站主要流程如下:工作站硬件环境:接收系统:IBMPC/AT及其以上兼容机,转报器。填图系统:IBMPC/AT及其以上兼容机,LQ系歹u打印机,AR系列打印机。显示系统:IBM286以上及其兼容机,EGA/VGA以上显示器十单色显示器。1接收系统接收系统从移频电传(或有线电传)上获电流信号,通… 相似文献
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二十多年来,气象站预报在探索着前进,有了很大发展,它已经成为我国天气预报服务体系中的一个组成部份。 在气象科学技术现代化的进程中,天气预报服务体系的现代化将处于重要地位。那么,作为天气预报服务体系一部份的气象站预报,今后又将如何发展呢?有人认为:将来各地的天气预报可由大台用电子计算机算出,气象站制作预报已无必要;有人认为:气象站预报有它自己的优势,在天气预报现代化中将得到 相似文献
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Christos H. Halios Costas G. Helmis Helena A. Flocas Stephan Nyeki Dimosthenis N. Assimakopoulos 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2012,118(3-4):107-115
Synoptic climatology relates the atmospheric circulation with the surface environment. The aim of this study is to examine the variability of the surface meteorological patterns, which are developing under different synoptic scale categories over a suburban area with complex topography. Multivariate Data Analysis techniques were performed to a data set with surface meteorological elements. Three principal components related to the thermodynamic status of the surface environment and the two components of the wind speed were found. The variability of the surface flows was related with atmospheric circulation categories by applying Correspondence Analysis. Similar surface thermodynamic fields develop under cyclonic categories, which are contrasted with the anti-cyclonic category. A strong, steady wind flow characterized by high shear values develops under the cyclonic Closed Low and the anticyclonic H–L categories, in contrast to the variable weak flow under the anticyclonic Open Anticyclone category. 相似文献
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V. M. Khan V. N. Kryzhov R. M. Vil’fand V. A. Tishchenko A. Yu. Bundel’ 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2011,36(1):11-17
Multimodel forecast fields of temperature at 850 hPa and seasonal precipitation are combined using a procedure of two-step averaging. It is shown that the resulting forecasts averaged over the multimodel ensemble outperform the forecasts of individual models. The verification of forecast production has been carried out on cross-validated hindcasts according to WMO requirements. The simulation of spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric variables is assessed. The results indicate that the combined models are rather skillful in the tropical oceans, while the accuracy in the extratropics is poor. 相似文献
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Summary A climatic summary of the observations made at Tristan da Cunha (approximately 37°S, 12°W) is presented including only those elements which are representative of conditions over the open sea. An attempt is then made to describe the synoptic climatology of the area around the island by means of 10 basic weather types. Comparisons are drawn with New Amsterdam Island (approximately 38°S, 77.5°E) which show that meridional circulation types with a regular west-east movement are predominant in the South Atlantic Ocean. In the South Indian Ocean zonal circulation patterns prevail with a strong tendency for south-north movement.
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Zusammenfassung Eine Klimatabelle der monatlichen Mittelwerte für 13 bis 14 Jahre Beobachtungen auf Tristan da Cunha im mittleren Südatlantik (37°S, 12°W) wird mitgeteilt (Luftdruck, Luft- und Wasser-Temperatur, Niederschlag, relative Feuchtigkeit sowie relative Häufigkeit von Windgeschwindigkeiten über 26 Knoten).Es wird danach versucht, mit Hilfe von 10 Hauptwettertypen das Wettergeschehen im Gebiet rund um Tristan da Cunha zu beschreiben. In einem Vergleich mit Neu-Amsterdam (38°S, 77.5°E) im südlichen Indischen Ozean wird der wesentliche Unterschied der atmosphärischen Zirkulationsarten über den beiden Ozeanen darin gefunden, daß über dem Südatlantik eine meridionale Zirkulation mit ausgesprochener West-Ost-Verlagerung über dem südlichen Indischen Ozean aber ein mehr zonaler Ablauf vorherrscht.
Résumé Tableau climatologique des moyennes mensuelles de 13 à 14 ans de Tristan da Cunha (37°S, 12°W) dans l'Atlantique Sud: pression, température de l'air et de l'eau, précipitations, humidité relative et fréquences relatives des vitesses de vent supérieures à 26 nuds.L'auteur tente sur cette base et en adoptant dix types de temps de décrire l'allure du temps dans la région de Tristan da Cunha. Une comparaison avec la Nouvelle Amsterdam (38°S, 77.5E), dans l'Océan Indien méridional, montre une divergence notable entre les deux océans: l'Océan Atlantique Sud présente une circulation méridienne se déplaçant d'Ouest en Est, et l'Océan Indien méridional par contre une circulation plutôt zonale.
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A. Sfetsos D. Vlachogiannis N. Gounaris A.K. Stubos 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2005,82(3-4):177-182
Summary The analysis of large data sets in meteorological and air quality studies is often made though the examination of specific case studies, especially when time-consuming computational models are employed. This paper presents the development of a tool to identify specific case studies, termed as representative days, that would subsequently be modelled. The success of such tools should be judged on the discrimination between the specified cases: and the degree to which they capture and recreate historical characteristics of the original data set. The developed approach utilises a principal component algorithm with varimax rotation (r-PCA) and the subtractive clustering algorithm coupled with a cluster validity criterion. In this paper, the developed tool is applied to a data set from the North Sea, utilizing two years worth of data from the DNMI operational forecasting model. The results will be subsequently used in photochemical and radiative forcing modelling tools as part of the EC funded project AEOLOS, with the ultimate goal to estimate the global warming potential of non-radioactive tracing substances such as SF6 and PFCs, which are heavily used in the oil industry. 相似文献
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A. Papadopoulos A. K. Paschalidou P. A. Kassomenos G. McGregor 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):483-501
In the present paper cluster analysis of 2-month air mass back-trajectories for three contrasting fire and non-fire events is conducted (high, low, and zero burnt area). The large fire event displays an air mass history dissimilar to other events whereby a 39-day period of warm and dry chiefly northerly anticyclonic conditions is evident, before a week of warmer predominantly southwesterly cyclonic activity, immediately prior to ignition. The pressure level of these anticyclonic air masses is above 800 hPa for more than 75 % of the trajectory length; this region is above the principal moisture transport regime of 800 hPa altitude. Analysis of variance on the mean rate of change of potential temperature identified weak statistically significant differences between two air mass pairs regarding the large fire: anticyclonic and cyclonic air masses in both cases (p?=?0.038 and p?=?0.020). Such regularity of type and occurrence, approach pressure levels and statistically significant differences are not evident for the small and non-fire event air masses. Such understanding is expected to permit appropriate steps to be undertaken including superior prediction and improved suppression strategy. 相似文献
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利用1961~2004年冬季贵州省84个测站凝冻日数资料,分析了2004年冬季(2004年12月~2005年2月)贵州省凝冻天气的时空分布特征,结果表明2004年冬季在省的中部一线有3个明显的重凝冻中心,主要出现了6次持续凝冻天气过程,其中强度最强、持续时间最长、影响范围最严重的是2004年12月23日到2005年1月2日的凝冻天气过程,6个测站达到特重级凝冻标准;与过去40a相比,省的中部一线较常年同期明显偏重,全省平均凝冻日数也是20世纪90年代以来较重的年份,凝冻集中期全省平均温度是1986年以来最冷的一年.分析这6次凝冻天气过程的天气系统,都是有偏北路径冷空气南下影响贵州,在贵州南部形成静止锋;同时高空有低槽东移影响,并且有冷空气不断补充,静止锋活跃,使凝冻天气得以持续. 相似文献
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R. A. Pielke M. Garstang C. Lindsey J. Gusdorf 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1987,38(2):57-68
Summary This paper presents a synoptic surface weather map classification scheme, and uses the categorization technique to meteorologically define seasons. Winter is defined as that period of the year in which a location is most frequently poleward of the polar front, while summer occurs when the site is most commonly equatoward. Fall and Spring are the transition periods when, respectively, increasingly more frequent and less frequent periods of time poleward of the polar front occur.Using 10 years of data, the application of this definition of seasons to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States is presented. While the frequency of the specific types of major synoptic weather features varied with latitude, the meteorological definitions of season are comparatively invariant with latitude (differing by no more than a month) for this geographic area. Using the meteorological definitions of season, the average winter for this region occurs from late October or early November to late March or early April. Summer is from late May to early June until late August or late September.
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Zusammenfassung Diese Arbeit stellt ein synoptisches Klassifikationsschema nach Bodenwetterkarten vor, das eine Kategorisierungstechnik verwendet, um die Jahreszeiten meteorologisch zu definieren. Der Winter ist als die Periode des Jahres festgelegt, in der ein Ort meist polwärts der Polarfront, während der Sommer jene Periode ist, in der er äquatorwärts der Polarfront liegt. Herbst und Frühjahr sind die Übergangsperioden, in denen zunehmend häufigere bzw. weniger häufige Abschnitte polwärts der Polarfront vorkommen.Die Anwendung dieser Jahreszeitendefinition wird mit Hilfe der Daten aus 10 Jahren für die Atlantik- und Golfküste der Vereinigten Staaten vorgestellt. Während die Häufigkeiten bestimmter Wetterlagen mit der geographischen Breite schwanken, erwies sich diese meteorologische Jahreszeitendefinition demgegenüber als vergleichbar invariant (mit einem maximalen Unterschied von einem Monat) innerhalb des ausgewählten Gebiets. Der so definierte Winter dieser Region beginnt zwischen Ende Oktober und Anfang November und dauert bis Ende März bzw. Anfang April. Sommer ist zwischen Ende Mai/Anfang Juni und Ende August/Ende September.
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