Solar-Terrestrial Signal Record in Tree Ring Width Time Series from Brazil

This work investigates the behavior of the sunspot number and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) signal recorded in the tree ring time series for three different locations in Brazil: Humaitá in Amaz?nia State, Porto Ferreira in S?o Paulo State, and Passo Fundo in Rio Grande do Sul State, using wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis techniques. The wavelet spectra of tree ring time series showed signs of 11 and 22?years, possibly related to the solar activity, and periods of 2–8?years, possibly related to El Ni?o events. The cross-wavelet spectra for all tree ring time series from Brazil present a significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in the time interval between 1921 to after 1981. These tree ring time series still have a response to the second harmonic of the solar cycle (5.5?years), but in different time intervals. The cross-wavelet maps also showed that the relationship between the SOI x tree ring time series is more intense, for oscillation in the range of 4–8?years.     

Solar activity imprints in tree ring width from Chile (1610–1991)

We have investigated the solar activity signal in tree ring data from two locations in Chile. The tree ring time series extended over a period of ∼400 yr. Spectral and wavelet analysis techniques were employed. We have found evidence for the presence of the solar activity Schwabe (∼11 yr), Hale (∼22 yr), fourth-harmonic of the 208-yr Suess cycle (∼52 yr) and Gleissberg (∼80 yr) cycles. The Gleissberg cycle of tree ring data is in anti-phase with solar activity. Wavelet and cross-wavelet techniques revealed that the periods found are intermittent, possibly because solar activity signals observed in tree rings are mostly due to solar influence on local climate (rainfall, temperature, and cloud cover) where trees grow up. Further, cross-wavelet analysis between sunspot and tree ring time series showed that the cross power around the 11 yr solar cycle is more significant during periods of high solar activity (grand maximum) than during periods of low solar activity (grand minimum). As Glaciar Pio XI is practically at the Pacific Ocean level, the tree-ring response may be stronger due to the heating of the Pacific Ocean water following an increase of the solar radiation incidence rather than at the higher altitudes of Osorno region.     

Solar activity and climatic variability in the time interval from 10 to 250 Ma ago

The climatic variability in the past on the time scales from several tens to several hundreds of million years has been analyzed based on the paleoclimatic data with a time resolution of several years (the variations in the fossil tree ring widths, varve). The revealed periodicity in the climatic parameters correlates with the observed solar activity cyclicity, which indicates that this periodicity effectively influences climate changes independently of differences in the climatic conditions in the considered interval.     

Variations in tree ring stable isotope records from northern Finland and their possible connection to solar activity

Within a project on climate in Europe during the past few hundred years we have collected a record on stable isotope ratios ¹³C/¹²C and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O in tree ring cellulose from pine trees in northern Finland. The records cover the time interval 1600–2002 AD and have an annual time resolution. The carbon stable isotope record from northernmost Finland correlates quite strongly with local growth period temperature. Statistical analysis of the carbon and oxygen stable isotope records reveals variations in the periods around 100, 11 and 3 years. A century scale connection between the ¹³C/¹²C record and solar activity is most evident. These results based on stable isotope records support previous evidences of a centennial solar-climatic link obtained for northern Finland using tree ring data.     

Cosmic ray flux variations, modulated by the solar and earth’s magnetic fields, and climate changes. 1. Time interval from the present to 10–12 ka ago (the Holocene Epoch)

Direct and indirect data on variations in cosmic rays, solar activity, geomagnetic dipole moment, and climate from the present to 10–12ka ago (the Holocene Epoch), registered in different natural archives (tree rings, ice layers, etc.), have been analyzed. The concentration of cosmogenic isotopes, generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes and coming into the Earth archives, makes it possible to obtain valuable information about variations in a number of natural processes. The cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C in tree rings and ¹⁰Be in ice layers, as well as cosmic rays, are modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, and time variations in these concentrations gives information about past solar and geomagnetic activities. Since the characteristics of natural reservoirs with cosmogenic ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be vary with climate changes, the concentrations of these isotopes also inform about climate changes in the past. A performed analysis indicates that cosmic ray flux variations are apparently the most effective natural factor of climate changes on a large time scale.     

Sun–earth relationship inferred by tree growth rings in conifers from Severiano De Almeida,Southern Brazil

This study of Sun–Earth relationships is based on tree growth rings analysis of araucarias (Araucaria angustifolia) collected at Severiano de Almeida (RS) Brazil. A chronology of 359 years was obtained, and the classical method of spectral analysis by iterative regression and wavelet method was applied to find periodicities and trends contained in the tree growth. The analysis of the dendrochronological series indicates representative periods of solar activity of 11 (Schwabe cycle), 22 (Hale cycle), and 80 (Gleissberg cycle) years. The result shows the possible influence of the solar activity on tree growth in the last 350 years. Periods of 2–7 years were also found and could represent a response of the trees to local climatic conditions. Good agreement between the time series of tree growth rings and the 11 year solar cycle was found during the maximum solar activity periods.     

Time evolution of cosmic-ray intensity and solar flare index at the maximum phase of cycles 21 and 22

Analysis of the time series into trigonometric series allows the investigation of cosmic-ray (CR) intensity variations in a range of periodicities from a few days to 1 year. By this technique the amplitude and the phase of all observed fluctuations can be given. For this purpose, daily CR intensity values recorded at Climax Neutron Monitor station for the time intervals 1979–1982 and 1989–1991, which correspond to the epochs of maximum activity for solar cycles 21 and 22, respectively, have been studied. The data analysis revealed the occurrence of new periodicities, common or not, in the two solar maxima. A search of our results was done by a power spectral analysis determining independently possible systematic periodic or quasi-periodic variations. Based on the fact that during these maxima the CR intensity tracks the solar flare index better than the sunspot number, the same analysis was performed on these data, which are equivalent to the total energy emitted by the solar flares. Both analyses result in periodicities with different probability of occurrence in different epochs. Occurrence at peaks of 70, 56, 35, 27, 21 and 14- days were observed in all time series, while the periods of 140–154 and 105 days are reported only in the 21st solar maximum and are of particular importance. All of the short-term periods except of those at 27 and 154-days are recorded for first time in CR data, but they had already been observed in the solar activity parameters. Moreover, each parameter studied here has a very different power spectrum distribution in periods larger than 154 days. The possible origin of the observed variations in terms of the CR interaction in the upper atmosphere and the solar cavity dynamics is also discussed here.     

Cosmic ray flux variations,modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields,and climate changes. Part 2: The time interval from ∼10000 to ∼100000 years ago

A joint analysis of paleodata on variations in cosmic ray fluxes, solar activity, geomagnetic field, and climate during the period from ～10000 to ～100000 years ago has been performed. Data on the time variations in the concentration of ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic isotopes, which are generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, were used to detect variations in solar activity and the geomagnetic dipole. Information about climate changes has been obtained mainly from variations in the concentration of stable isotopes in the natural archives. A performed analysis indicates that the variations in cosmic ray fluxes under the action of variations in the geomagnetic field and solar activity are apparently one of the most effective natural factors of long-term climate changeability on a large time scale.     

Combined method for detecting hidden anomalies in galactic cosmic ray variations

A method has been proposed for detecting hidden periodicities in nonstationary finite time series with strong noise. The successive application of the spectral singular expansion and wavelet transform makes it possible to calculate the energy of short signals with an arbitrary form against a suppressing noise back-ground, the amplitude of which is several times as large as that of a useful signal. This method has been used to identify variations in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux related to IMF disturbances due to the earthward propagation of solar magnetic clouds in the heliosphere.     

Statistical validation of GCM-simulated climates for the U.S. Great Lakes and the C.I.S. Emba and Ural River basins

Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.     

Statistical validation of GCM-simulated climates for the U.S. Great Lakes and the C.I.S. Emba and Ural River basins

Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.     

Correlation between high-resolution climate records from a Nanjing stalagmite and GRIP ice core during the last glaciation

A 400-mm-long stalagmite from Tangshan Cave, Nanjing has been analyzed by a high-precision TIMS-U series dating method and also determined for oxygen and carbon stable isotopic compositions. The results provided a high-resolution paleoclimate record for eastern China during a time interval (from 54 000 to 19 000 aBP) of the last glaciation. The continuous record of oxygen-18 variations in the stalagmite, indicating a precipitation history of the East Asian monsoon, shows not only signals of the Heinrich events, but also the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles which are first found in the last glacial climate record of the East Asian monsoon area. Although the stalagmite-based climatic signals match well with the GRIP ice core record, some differences between the two records can be recognized: (1) The last glacial climate changes in eastern China exhibited a long-term remarkably cooling trend, superimposed on which were four successive Bond’s cycles illustrated by the δ¹⁸O curve. This strong cooling tendency may be an effect of the strong summer monsoon event during the MIS 3 over the Tibetan Plateau. (2) There exist some phase differences of 1000–2000 years between the cooling events in the stalagmite-based climate signal and the GRIP ice core record. Such differences should be further verified by calibrations of multiple dating methods     

Imprint of Climate Variability on Mesozoic Fossil Tree Rings: Evidences of Solar Activity Signals on Environmental Records Around 200 Million Years Ago?

Evidence of the solar activity modulation of the Earth’s climate has been observed on several parameters, from decadal to millennial time scales. Several proxies have been used to reconstruct the paleoclimate as well as the solar activity. The paleoclimate reconstructions are based on direct and/or indirect effects of global and regional climate conditions. The solar activity reconstructions are based on the production of the ¹⁴C isotope due to the interaction of cosmic ray flux and the Earth’s atmosphere. Because trees respond to climate conditions and store ¹⁴C, they have been used as proxies for both for climate and solar activity reconstructions. The imprints of solar activity cycles dating back to 10,000 years ago have been observed on tree-ring samples using ¹⁴C data, and those dating back to 20 million years ago have been analyzed using fossil tree-growth rings. All this corresponds to the Cenozoic era. However, solar activity imprints on tree rings from earlier than that era have not been investigated yet. In this work, we showed that tree rings from the Mesozoic Era (of ~200 million years ago) recorded 11- and 22-year cycles, which may be related to solar activity cycles, and that were statistically significant at the 95 % confidence level. The fossil wood was collected in the southern region of Brazil. Our analysis of the fossils' tree-ring width series power spectra showed characteristics similar to the modern araucaria tree, with a noticeable decadal periodicity. Assuming that the Earth’s climate responds to solar variability and that responses did not vary significantly over the last ~200 million years, we conclude that the solar–climate connection was likely present during the Mesozoic era.     

Search for Solar Periodicities in Tree-ring Widths from Concórdia (S.C., Brazil)

Tree ring studies are usually used to determine or verify climatic factors prevailing at a given place or region that may cause tree-ring width variations. Few studies are dedicated to the solar phenomena which may underlie these tree-ring width variations. Furthermore, it is known that some terrestrial phenomena are influenced by short- and long-time scale solar variability. An optical and computational method was set up and applied to tree samples (Araucaria angustifolia from Santa Catarina State in Southern Brazil) in order to obtain a growth ring width mean chronology. Spectral analysis is used for the search of periodicities, by maximum entropy and iterative regression methods. The results evidenced several embedded signals at periods which may be related to solar activity variations. Cross-correlation analysis between sunspot number and tree-ring data was performed and a lag of zero year was obtained. From our work, it seems that the tropical conifer species Araucaria angustifolia may be a good choice for studies on Sun-Earth relationships and their regional effects.     

Variations in the amplitude and phase of VLF radiowaves in the ionosphere during the August 1, 2008, solar eclipse

Time variations in the amplitude and phase of signals of the Russian telecommunication station (the frequency is 25 kHz) on the Arkhangelsk—Kharkov path with a length of about 1600 km on the day of the August 1, 2008 solar eclipse (SE) and on the adjacent days are analyzed. Two types of effects are detected. An increase of the signal amplitude by approximately 32% in comparison with the background days and the 2.1 μs time shift of the signal during 2—2.5 h is referred to the first type. Changes in the spectral composition of the quasiperiodic disturbances in the ionosphere presented the second type of the effects. For spectral analysis of the quasiperiodic variations in the amplitude and phase of the radio signal, the window Fourier transform, adaptive Fourier transform, and wavelet transformation were applied simultaneously. In the period of SE and after it, oscillations with periods of 10—15 min (according to the amplitude data) and also about 10 and 18 min (according to the phase data) were intensified. Based on radio signal characteristics, the parameters of ionospheric disturbances are estimated.     

Evidence for solar forcing of climate variation from δ18O of peat cellulose

There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity.A continuous δ18O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported.Results show that during the past 5000 years the abrupt climate variations,including 17 warming and 17 cooling,and a serious of periodicities,such as 86,101,110,127,132,140,155,207,245,311,820 and 1050 years,are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity.These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries.     

Water level variability and trends in Lake Constance in the light of the 1999 centennial flood

The extreme flood of Lake Constance in 1999 focused attention on the variability of annual lake levels. The year 1999 not only brought one of the highest floods of the last 180 years but also one of the earliest in the season. The 1999 extreme event was caused by heavy rainfall in the alpine and pre-alpine regions. The influence of precipitation in the two distinct regional catchments on lake level variations can be quantified by correlation analysis. The long-term variations in lake level and precipitation show similar patterns. This is seen through the use of spectral analysis, which gives similar bands of spectral densities for precipitation and lake level time series. It can be concluded from the comparison of these results with the analysis of climate change patterns in northern Europe, i.e. the index of the North Atlantic Oscillation, that the regional effects on lake level variations are more pronounced than those of global climate change.     

太阳活动千年尺度的准周期性波动

2004年,Solanki等人利用树木年轮中δ14C含量变化重建的太阳黑子数序列研究太阳活动的论文被Nature发表,该黑子序列自1895年起向历史时期延伸了11400年.本文采用最大熵谱分析方法和小波变换方法分析了这一重建的太阳黑子序列,重点讨论太阳活动在千年尺度上的周期性波动.结果表明,太阳活动的长期变化中存在接近千年和略大于两千年的准周期信号,以及可能存在约7千年的波动,得到了这些准周期分量的参数.这些准周期分量的周期长度和振幅是随着时间变化的,文中给出了它们的时变图象并讨论了它们的时变特征.     

On regularities in long-term solar quiet geomagnetic variations

We propose a simple model to describe the behaviour of solar quiet geomagnetic variations Sq over a long time. We assume that Sq variations can be expressed through 24-h components and their harmonics subject to three modulations: 1 year, 11 years and several tens years. We started from the observation that the spectral lines of 30-year geomagnetic data series are split in accordance with yearly modulation. Our model gives good approximation of Sq variations and discloses a striking correlation of amplitudes and phases of modulating functions with the sunspot number and 2.8 GHz solar radio emission. It is also a tool for monitoring the Sq variations.     

Seasonal and spatial variations in the scaling and correlation structure of streamflow data

Seasonal and spatial variability in scaling, correlation and wavelet variance parameter of daily streamflow data were investigated using 56 gauging stations from five basins located in two different climate zones. Multifractal temporal scaling properties were detected using a multiplicative cascade model. The wavelet variance parameter yielded persistence properties of the streamflow time series. Seasonal variations were found to be significant in that winter and spring seasons where large‐scale frontal events are dominant showed higher long‐term correlations and less multifractality than did summer and fall seasons. Coherent spatial variations were apparent. The Neches River basin located in a subtropic humid climate zone exhibited high persistence and long‐term correlation as well as less multifractality as compared with other basins. It is found that larger drainage areas tend to have smaller multifractality and higher persistence structure, and this tendency becomes apparent in regions that receive large amounts of precipitation and decreases towards arid regions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.