V_r:A new index to represent the variation rate of geomagnetic activity

By calculating the hourly standard deviation of the first-order differences of the horizontal geomagnetic component minute data,a new index Vr to represent the variation rate of the geomagnetic field was introduced.Vr-indices show similar trends in the temporal change at different observatories and have simultaneous peak values at the observatories covering a large span geographically,which reveals that the source of geomagnetic disturbances represented by Vr is in the magnetosphere.Based on the comparison among Vr,Kp and ap,it is found that generally Vr changes linearly with Kp and ap,which means that the rapid changes of magnetic field usually exist together with magnetic disturbances.But there are exceptions.As Vr can be easily produced by individual observatory in quasi real time and is more sensitive to the variation rate of geomagnetic field rather than the field itself,it can be expected to serve for monitoring or predicting the geomagnetic-induced event in a quick and intuitive way.     

Common oscillatory modes in geomagnetic activity, NAO index and surface air temperature records

Detection and extraction of quasi-oscillatory dynamical modes from instrumental records of geophysical data became a useful tool in analyzing variability of observed phenomena reflected in complex, multivariate geophysical signals. Using the extension of the Monte Carlo singular system analysis (MC SSA), based on evaluating and testing regularity of dynamics of the SSA modes against the colored noise null hypothesis, we demonstrate detection of oscillatory modes with period of about 96 months in the long-term records of aa index as well as in the records of surface air temperature from several mid-latitude European locations and in the North Atlantic Oscillation index.     

The pulsation activity of a geomagnetic storm

um mam aau ¶rt; a¶rt;uaum nau mu m¶rt; a aum u a ¶rt;u uma.     

A new magnetic index based on the external part of vertical geomagnetic variations

Variations of geomagnetic components X, Y, and Z recorded in 19 Intermagnet European observatories in 2004 were analysed. The original data from all observatories were preliminarily processed. In the first step, periods longer than three hours were filtered out. In the second step, variations of vertical geomagnetic component Z were separated into external and internal parts. We introduced a non-dimensional index η defined as the square root of a ratio of the energy of the external part of the vertical component to that of the horizontal components. Maps of the surface distribution of a new magnetic index η for the area of Europe at selected time periods were created, and their time changes are presented. The time changes of η for selected observatories are also shown. Moreover, we discuss a very interesting phenomenon we discovered, that has never been described in geophysical literature. Namely, in the recordings of all the observatories we noticed the presence of very regular variations, observed almost exclusively in the vertical component Z, which is quite unusual. These regular variations occur in the form of sinusoidal “wave packets”. The amplitudes of these variations do not depend on the geomagnetic latitude and appear in the records of all the observatories we analyzed. They occur in quiet days, which suggests that their source is in the ionosphere.     

Estimation of storm-time level of day-side wave geomagnetic activity using a new <Emphasis Type="Italic">ULF</Emphasis> index

The level of wave geomagnetic activity in the morning and daytime sectors of auroral latitudes during strong magnetic storms with Dst _min varying from ?100 to ?150 nT in 1995–2002 have been studied using a new ULF index of wave activity proposed in [Kozyreva et al., 2007]. It has been detected that daytime Pc5 pulsations (2–6 mHz) are most intense during the main phase of a magnetic storm rather than during the recovery phase as was considered previously. It has been indicated that morning geomagnetic pulsations during the substorm recovery phase mainly contribute to daytime wave activity. The appearance of individual intervals with the southward IMF B _z component during the magnetic storm recovery phase results in increases in the ULF index values.     

Manifestations of geomagnetic activity on a transauroral HF radio path

This paper considers the results of an experiment conducted in May 2002 on the radio path St. Petersburg-Spitsbergen with a length of D = 2150 km and equipped with instrumentation for oblique ionospheric sounding (OIS). The features of OIS ionograms at various degrees of magnetic activity are revealed, and a comparison of these ionograms with the vertical sounding (VS) data at the Sodankyla observatory (Finland) is performed. This observatory is located near the reflection point of the path in question. In order to estimate the auroral absorption, riometer data from the Sodankyla observatory were included in the analysis of the OIS and VS ionograms. The merits of the OIS method as a diagnostic tool of ionospheroic plasma in comparison with VS at high latitudes are demonstrated. These merits are mainly formulated for magnetically disturbed periods: in the presence of B events (black-outs), anomalous sporadic Es formations, and a series of other events.     

A new index of solar activity: An index of cosmic ray scintillation

An index of cosmic ray scintillation introduced previously is verified. This procedure has been performed within the scope of the long-term full-scale monitoring of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) in the real time regime. The 5-min data of the global network of high-latitude neutron monitors at Tixie Bay (Apatity) and Oulu (Finland) stations during the last four solar cycles (cycles 20–23), i.e., during the entire period of data registration with a high (5 min) resolution, have been used. The relationship between the amplitude-frequency-time structure of a precursor in the GCR scintillation index and the soliton-like structure of the heliospheric current sheet during the disturbed period has been established. This indicates that the precursor is of a coherent origin. Only the presence of a coherent process—quasi-week variation—makes it fundamentally possible to predict heliospheric storms. Finally, the justifiability of the effective prediction of heliospheric storms (～80%) has been obtained based on the long-term cosmic ray monitoring during cycle 23.     

Relationship between microseisms,geomagnetic activity and ionospheric absorption of radio waves

Summary Relatively good correlation between such remote phenomena as microseisms, geomagnetic activity and ionospheric absorption of radio waves has been observed. These phenomena are probably connected by a considerably increased penetration of energetic particles into the atmosphere under conditions of geomagnetic activity.     

Intensity of the geomagnetic field from recent Italian lavas using a new paleointensity method

A new method has been tested on Etna historic lavas for determining the geomagnetic field intensity (F) using the thermoremanent magnetization of volcanic rocks. The procedure involves a number of very short duration heatings above the Curie point, to produce successive laboratory TRM. Thus, it is possible to check the variations in the TRM-acquiring capacity of the samples with the time of heating (t). The curve J = f(t) is then extrapolated towards t = 0, leading to a virtual value of TRM without any laboratory heating, i.e., without the changes that currently occur when the lavas are heated to produce the TRM. Using such virtual values of TRM, satisfactory results of F had been derived from the majority of the samples studied. These results are consistent with Thellier's archeomagnetic data: they show a nearly constant intensity of the geomagnetic field during the last three centuries and, further back into the past, a significant increase of this.     

A numerical method to index the risk of conflict around the transboundary water resources. Validation by a studied case

The world-wide crisis of water will make that the transboundary water resources will be the object of tensions and litigations increasingly marked. Also, the transboundary conflicts on fresh water intended to the categories of traditional uses are subjected to a growing attention on behalf of national and international organizations. Each case of conflict, related as well to surface water as groundwater, has its accurate characteristics and to appreciate its relative importance, it is necessary to consult a broad documentation based on reports of commissions, organizations or groups of research. According to criteria and data taken into account, the situation is some times appreciated differently.     

Proposed major format change to geomagnetic activity reports and forecasts produced by the SESC,Boulder, Colorado,U.S.A.

The Space Environment Services Center (SESC) provides real-time information on the state of the solar-terrestrial environment. In particular, the geomagnetic field is closely monitored. Summaries of geomagnetic activity are issued daily, as are forecasts for each of the next three days. Customers are alerted when activity rises above selected thresholds of theK- andA-indices. This present geomagnetic reporting and forecasting format is no longer the most appropriate for the expanding number of agencies and industries which the SESC serves. These customers need more detailed information about the geographic distribution of geomagnetic activity stated in plainer language. The proposed new format would quantitatively describe geomagnetic activity in terms of 6 qualitative categories: quiet, unsettled, active, minor storm, major storm, and severe storm. Summaries and forecasts would be made for 2 specific latitude zones: mid-latitudes (20–50 deg geomagnetic) and high-latitudes (50–80 deg geomagnetic). The format adapts well to longer-range (27-day) forecasts.     

A case-study of the low-latitude thermosphere during geomagnetic storms and its new representation by improved MSIS model

The thermospheric temperatures from low and equatorial latitudes during geomagnetically disturbed periods are known to exhibit significant deviations from atmospheric model predictions. Also, the oscillatory features seen in the observations are not accounted for by the models. A simple relation has been established between the difference in the observed and model-predicted temperatures and the rate of change of Dst, the magnetic index representing the ring current variabilities. Using this relation, a correction term has been added to the latest MSIS-90 model algorithm and almost all the observed variations in neutral temperatures spectroscopically determined from Mt. Abu, a low-latitude station in India, are successfully reproduced for two moderate geomagnetic storms.     

Automatic digital recording of geomagnetic elements by means of a proton precession magnetometer

A simple system of automatic recording of geomagnetic field components by means of a proton vector magnetometer has been built and tested at L'Aquila Geomagnetic Observatory. The instrument is working with the use of a combination of the addition and compensation methods to directly measure absolute values of field components. A sophisticated equipment for the current generation and control is necessary to maintain the current flowing in the Helmholtz coils within 2 A for successive measurements. To maximize the signal coming from the sensor inside the coils for the different components, a simple arrangement of two orthogonal small coils in only one sensor has been made.After two years of experience and improvements the system has been further controlled comparing it with Ruska variometers regularly working in L'Aquila Observatory.Some practical problems found in operating the system are discussed. The automatic hourly mean computation is suggested to produce yearbooks.     

On the prediction of relativistic electron fluence based on its relationship with geomagnetic activity over a solar cycle

A study has been carried out to determine the relationship between high energy relativistic (>2 MeV) electron fluence and auroral zone geomagnetic activity for a solar cycle. Data for 1987–1997, spanning Solar Cycle 22, were used in the study. The relativistic electron fluence data were based on fluxes observed by the GOES geosynchronous satellites. The geomagnetic data were the DRX indices derived from a Canadian magnetic observatory located in the auroral zone at Fort Churchill, near the footprint of field lines passing through geostationary satellites. This work, based on data from a solar cycle, confirms earlier findings using limited data from segments of a solar cycle of enhancement in fluence 2–3 days after increases in geomagnetic activity, and shows the cycle dependence of fluence with respect to geomagnetic activity. This study underlines the influence of recurrent coronal holes on fluence level as well as the possible role of Pc5 magnetic pulsations as an electron acceleration mechanism, and highlights the predictability of fluence from ground geomagnetic data. A fluence prediction algorithm can now solely be based on derived expressions relating fluence and DRX. Thus, a simple fluence prediction scheme can easily be implemented to provide a 2–3 day advance warning of space weather conditions hazardous to geosynchronous satellites, since during days of high fluence, the likelihood of internal charging in a satellite is high, with possible discharges that could result in satellite operational anomalies. For verification purpose, daily values of fluence for 1997–2000 and for January 1994 were postcast using the derived expressions. The postcast values were validated, and the results give credence to the fluence prediction scheme.     

Rapid and reliable seismic source characterization in earthquake early warning systems: current methodologies,results, and new perspectives

In the present paper, we provided a review of the main principles and methodologies on which the current earthquake early warning systems are grounded and will also provide a perspective view for next future developments and improvements. First, we introduce the standard methodologies for the source characterization in earthquake early warning, with a special focus on the real-time earthquake magnitude determination. We discuss the suitability of existent methodologies and empirical regression laws for very large events. We then present the different approaches for the rapid prediction of the ground shaking and of the potential damaged zone, both based on traditional seismic data and on the use of continuous GPS data. Finally, the last part of the paper provides the perspective view toward a next generation of early warning systems, linking new research achievements about the earthquake rupture nucleation and the development of new methods/technologies aimed at a fast and high-resolution, real-time modeling of the ongoing source process and accurate prediction of the quake shaking at the regional and local scale.     

Geomagnetic activity as a reflection of processes in the magnetospheric tail: 1. The source of diurnal and semiannual variations in geomagnetic activity

Diurnal and semiannual variations in geomagnetic activity are considered. We prove that there exists an inner magnetospheric source of magnetic activity, which depends on the angle φ between the planes of the magnetotail plasma sheet and the geomagnetic equator. It is shown that diurnal and semiannual variations in magnetic activity result from changes in the value of this angle.     

Pearl-type micropulsations at mid-latitude; their relation to whistlers,solar and geomagnetic activity as well as ionospheric absorption

The occurrence of pearl-type (Pc 1) micropulsations recorded at the mid-latitude station Nagycenk (Hungary) during a half solar cycle showed a quite regular variation on this long time scale. Around solar activity maximum, the number of days with Pc 1 occurrence was rather low, while it began to increase during medium solar activity rising to a maximum around solar activity minimum. Pc 1 pulsations have been analyzed in relation to further parameters and on a shorter time scale, too. Based on data of 2 years with maximum Pc 1 occurrence (around solar activity minimum in 1985 and 1986), a seasonal variation was also found. Additionally, it was confirmed that pearl-type micropulsations might frequently occur, on and after days, with geomagnetic disturbances. At Nagycenk, the selected geomagnetic disturbances were generally associated with an increased ionospheric absorption of radio waves caused by enhanced ionization due to particle precipitation from the magnetosphere into the lower ionosphere. Whistler observations carried out at Panska Veš (a station in the Czech Republic) showed a significant whistler activity connected with these geomagnetic disturbances, however, no after-effect appeared in whistler activity. One of the main goals of the present study was to find a relationship between Pc 1 pulsations and whistlers. Results revealing an increased whistler activity associated with Pc 1 occurrences confirm our previous findings rather convincingly. The latter ones hinted at the probability that certain magnetospheric configurations, e.g. geomagnetic field line shells and whistler ducts are closely connected, as similar positions of the two structures were found within the magnetosphere when characteristics of Pc 3 pulsations and whistlers were analyzed.     

Recovery of data on interplanetary medium parameters based on the <Emphasis Type="Italic">aa</Emphasis> index of geomagnetic activity

The average annual values of the electric field and parameters of the solar wind and IMF from our time to 1868 have been estimated based on the statistical relation between the aa index of geomagnetic activity and the interplanetary medium parameters. This estimation indicates that the relative variations during the 20th century were observed in the electric field (25 ± 3%), the IMF vector component transverse with respect to the velocity (16 ± 3%), and the solar wind plasma velocity (9 ± 1%, 37 ± 4 km/s). The modulus of the IMF vector radial component increased by 9.0 ± 2.5% during this period.     

Holocene geomagnetic secular variation recorded by volcanic deposits at Mount St. Helens,Washington

A compilation of paleomagnetic data from volcanic deposits of Mount St. Helens is presented in this report. The database is used to determine signature paleomagnetic directions of products from its Holocene eruptive events, to assign sampled units to their proper eruptive period, and to begin the assembly of a much larger database of paleomagnetic directions from Holocene volcanic rocks in western North America. The paleomagnetic results from Mount St. Helens are mostly of high quality, and generally agree with the division of its volcanic deposits into eruptive episodes based on previous geologic mapping and radiocarbon dates. The Muddy River andesite's paleomagnetic direction, however, indicates that it is more likely part of the Pine Creek eruptive period rather than the Castle Creek period. In addition, the Two-Fingers andesite flow is more likely part of the Middle Kalama eruptive period and not part of the Goat Rocks period. The paleomagnetic data from Mount St. Helens and Mount Hood document variation in the geomagnetic field's pole position over the last ~2,500 years. A distinct feature of the new paleosecular variation (PSV) record, similar to the Fish Lake record (Oregon), indicates a sudden change from rapid clockwise movement of the pole about the Earth's spin axis to relatively slow counterclockwise movement at ~800 to 900 years B.P.     

一种新的综合物理指数构建及其在强降水预报中的应用

强降水是洪灾及相关衍生灾害的最主要原因之一,而过去单靠某一种变量诊断预报强降水,具有较大难度.本文在已有研究的基础上,根据强降水发生发展的物理机制,将引起降水的热力、动力和水汽条件综合考虑,尝试性地构建了一个新的综合指数THP(Temperature, Helicity and Precipitable water).然后针对两次强降水过程,利用NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°的再分析资料和地面常规观测资料,对THP指数进行了诊断分析,并选用2012年7月1日-8月15日的降水实况,对该指数进行了普适性检验.结果表明:(1) THP指数的变化可以有效表征强降水过程的发展和移动.对于降水落区的预报,THP指数的大值区与未来6 h的降水中心基本对应;对于降水发生时刻的预报,THP指数的位相变化超前于地面降水的变化,具有较好的指示性;(2) 对于高空槽前型降水,THP指数对降水强度也有一定的诊断意义,且普适性检验表明,该指数在我国中东部地区的盛夏期间具有良好的适用性;(3) 基于配料法的思想,THP指数将有利于强降水出现的、具有清晰物理意义的信号进行了集成,相比于表征单一物理量的指数,其稳定性得到了增强.