Properties of solar activity and ionosphere for solar cycle 25

Based on the known forecast of solar cycle 25 amplitude (Rz _max ≈ 50), the first assessments of the shape and amplitude of this cycle in the index of solar activity F10.7 (the magnitude of solar radio flux at the 10.7 cm wavelength) are given. It has been found that (F10.7)_max ≈ 115, which means that it is the lowest solar cycle ever encountered in the history of regular ionospheric measurements. For this reason, many ionospheric parameters for cycle 25, including the F2-layer peak height and critical frequency (hmF2 and foF2), will be extremely low. For example, at middle latitudes, typical foF2 values will not exceed 8–10 MHz, which makes ionospheric heating ineffective in the area of upper hybrid resonance at frequencies higher than 10 MHz. The density of the atmosphere will also be extremely low, which significantly extends the lifetime of low-orbit satellites. The probability of F-spread will be increased, especially during night hours.     

Quasibiennial variations in fractal dimension of solar total irradiance

Based on the Nimbus-7 (1978–1992) data and the parameters of solar activity (Wolf numbers W, solar radioemission F _10.7) and the ionosphere (f ₂ index of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer normalized to noon), the fractal dimension (FD) of the variations in the solar total irradiance (L) has been determined on the moving annual interval using the Higuchi technique. It has been established that FD estimates substantially vary in time. Quasibiennial variations (QBVs), which similarly manifest themselves in all considered processes, are detected in these variations. It is interesting that all fractal QBVs are in phase with QBVs of solar irradiance (L) and are almost in antiphase with QBVs of initial (filtered) W, F _10.7, and f ₂ indices. The presence of QBVs in the solar processes and in their FD and noncoincidence of the former with the latter in phase indicate that QBVs have a two-component structure. The obtained results also indicate that an analysis of the annual FD estimates of the solar and ionospheric processes in studying variations in these processes is reliable.     

A two-dimensional model of thermospheric nitric oxide sources and their contributions to the middle atmospheric chemical balance

The NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center two-dimensional (GSFC 2D) photochemical transport model has been used to study the influence of thermospheric NO on the chemical balance of the middle atmosphere. Lower thermospheric NO sources are included in the GSFC 2D model in addition to the sources that are relevant to the stratosphere. A time series of hemispheric auroral electron power has been used to modulate the auroral NO production in the auroral zone. A time series of the Ottawa 10.7-cm solar flux index has been used as a proxy to modulate NO production at middle and low latitudes by solar EUV and soft X-rays. An interhemispheric asymmetry is calculated for the amounts of odd nitrogen in the polar stratosphere. We compute a <∼3% enhancement in the odd nitrogen (NO_y=N, NO, NO₂, NO₃, N₂O₅, BrONO₂, ClONO₂, HO₂NO₂, and HNO₃) budget in the north polar stratosphere (latitude > 50°) due to thermospheric sources, whereas we compute a <∼8% enhancement in the NO_y budget in the south polar stratosphere (latitude > 50°).     

Statistical Analysis and Modeling of the Local Ionospheric Critical Frequency: A Mid-latitude Single-Station Model for Use in Forecasting

The hourly values of the F-layer critical frequency from the ionospheric sounder in Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) during the time interval from 1957 to 2010, comprising five solar cycles, were analyzed for the effects of the solar activity. The hourly time series were reduced to hourly monthly medians which in turn were used for fitting a single station foF₂ monthly median model. Two functional approaches have been investigated: a statistical approach and a spectral approach. The solar flux F_10.7 is used to model the dependence of foF₂ on the solar activity and is incorporated into both models by a polynomial expression. The statistical model employs polynomial functions to fit the F-layer critical frequency while the spectral model is based on spectral decomposition of the measured data and offers a better physical interpretation of the fitting parameters. The daytime and nighttime foF₂ values calculated by both approaches are compared during high and low solar activity. In general, the statistical model has a slightly lower uncertainty at the expense of the larger number of fitting parameters. However, the spectral approach is superior for modeling the periodic effects and performs better when comparing the results for high and low solar activity. Comparison with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2012) shows that both local models are better at describing the local values of the F-layer critical frequency.     

Ionospheric irregularities in periods of meteorological disturbances

The results of observations of the total electron content (TEC) in periods of storm disturbances of meteorological situation are presented in the paper. The observational results have shown that a passage of a meteorological storm is accompanied by a substantial decrease in values of TEC and critical frequencies of the ionospheric F2 region. The decreases in values of these ionospheric parameters reach 50% and up to 30% in TEC and critical frequency of the F2 layer, respectively, as compared to meteorologically quiet days. Based on qualitative analysis, it is found that the processes related to formation of local regions of thermospheric heating due to a dissipation of AGW coming into the upper atmosphere from the region of the meteorological disturbance in the lower atmosphere are a possible cause of these ionospheric disturbances.     

Global empirical model of critical frequency of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer for quiet geomagnetic conditions

Using the foF2 database obtained from satellites and ground-based ionospheric stations, we have constructed a global empirical model of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer (SDMF2—Satellite and Digisonde Data Model of the F2 layer) for quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp < 3). The input parameters of this model are the geographical coordinates, UT, day, month, year, and the integral index F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96) of solar activity for a given day. The SDMF2 model was based on the Legendre method for the spatial expansion of foF2 monthly medians to 12 in latitude and 8 in longitude of spherical harmonics. The resulting spatial coefficients have been expanded by the Fourier method in three spherical harmonics with respect to UT. The effect of the saturation of critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer at high solar activity was described in the SDMF2 model by foF2 as a logarithmic function of F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96). The difference between the SDMF2 and IRI models is a maximum at low solar activity as well as in the Southern Hemisphere and in the oceans. The testing on the basis of ground-based and satellite data has indicated that the SDMF2 model is more accurate than the IRI model.     

Comparison of ionospheric parameters calculated with UAM and measured at Voeykovo observatory

The measurements of the critical frequencies of the ionospheric F2 layer based on vertical radiosounding, which was performed with a CADI digital ionosonde at the Voeykovo magnetic–ionospheric observatory in February 2013, have been considered. The observations have been compared with the upper atmosphere numerical model (UAM) data for three days that differ in the amplitude and the character of solar and magnetic activity and correspond to quiet and moderately disturbed states of the ionosphere. The work was performed in order to improve the methods for determining the ionospheric state by vertical sounding ionograms. The time variations in the F2 layer critical frequency, electric field vector zonal component, and thermospheric wind velocity meridional component have been analyzed. Calculations were performed with three UAM variants. The UAM version providing the best agreement with the CADI ionosonde data was the version in which the neutral temperature, neutral composition, and pressure gradients are calculated according to the MSIS empirical model and the horizontal neutral wind velocity is determined by the equation of motion with pressure gradients from MSIS. The calculated values corresponded to the measurements, except those for the evening, because the electron density at the ionospheric F2 layer maximum depends more strongly on electric fields and thermospheric wind velocities during this period. Thus, the indicated UAM version with the above limitations can be used to determine the state of the subauroral ionosphere.     

High resolution analysis of the sun's radiation received at the ground from 9 μ to 11.6 μ

Summary A brief report on the instrumentation for observations, at the ground, in the 9 to 11.6 spectral region, in the absorption of solar radiation through the terrestrial atmosphere and of the results thus obtained for the H₂O, O₃ and HNO₃ molecules.The observations have been made at Montlouis, in the south of France, at 1650 m above sea-level. Here the pollution of the atmosphere is very low because there is no industry and very little local domestic activity.The chief aim ofM. Dionne [1], who is mainly responsible for this work, was to study the weak absorption of the terrestrial atmosphere around and beyond 10 , so observation had to be made with large air masses. For if there were excess water vapour the very weak lines might disappear through the background, owing to the water vapour itself; hence the need to observe during cold weather. Great air masses and cold weather can be obtained only on fine winter days, at about sunset. The configuration of Montlouis makes it difficult to observe at sunrise, so the time of observation was very limited.Laboratoire de Physique Moléculaire et d'Optique Atmosphérique, Station de Montlouis.     

Motion of Ionospheric Plasma: Results of Observations above Kharkiv in Solar Cycle 24

The equipment and methodical characteristics of determining the vertical component of the ionospheric plasma motion velocity V_z based on an incoherent scatter radar of Institute of Ionosphere, National Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (Kharkiv), which is the only radar of such type in Central Europe, are described. Based on the radar data, the patterns of altitude and diurnal variations in V_z near the maximum of solar cycle 24 for the typical geophysical conditions (around the summer and winter solstices, the spring and fall equinoxes) at low geomagnetic activity and the specifics of these changes during ionospheric storms are presented. The results of modeling of the dynamic processes in ionospheric plasma under the conditions of the undisturbed ionosphere, including the determination of altitudetime variations in the thermospheric wind velocity, are presented. It has been established that this velocity can significantly differ from the thermospheric wind velocity calculated by the known empirical global models. This difference is likely related to the regional features of thermospheric wind that are not shown in the global models.     

Atmosphere–ionosphere response to solar eclipse over Kharkiv on March 20, 2015

The results of the observations of aperiodic and quasi-periodic disturbances in E and F1 ionospheric layers and air temperature variations in the surface atmosphere on the day of the solar eclipse and control days are presented. The ionospheric processes were monitored by vertical sounding Doppler radar. The measurements showed that, near the time of the maximum coverage of the solar disk, the greatest decrease in the density of electrons in the layers E and F1 was ～27%, which is close to the calculated value (25%). The solar eclipse was accompanied by the generation of traveling ionospheric disturbances with a period of 8–12 min and a relative amplitude of electron density variations of ～0.6–1.5%. Because of the haze in the surface atmosphere, its temperature, which was monitored at observation points at a distance of 50–60 km from each other did not exceed 1°C near the time of the maximum eclipse magnitude.     

Manifestations of cyclic variations in the solar magnetic field in long-term modulation of cosmic rays

The possibilities of improving the semiempirical model of cosmic ray (CR) modulation, proposed by us previously, are discussed. The following characteristics have been considered as model parameters in order to describe long-period CR variations using a unified model and to more completely reflect solar cycles in CR modulation as a complex interaction between two systems of fields (large-scale and local): the value and sign of the polar solar field, the average strength of the solar magnetic field (the B _ss integral index), partial indices (zone-even (ZE) and zone-odd (ZO) and sector-even (SE) and sector-odd (SO) indices), the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and the special index (F _x ) taking into account X ray flares. The role of each index in CR modulation has been revealed. When we described the long-term CR variations using many parameters and taking into account the integral index or one of four partial indices, the best results of modulation modeling during 1976–1999 were obtained for the B _ss total energetic index and SO index. A difference between the model calculations and observations increases beginning from the middle of 2000; the problem features of the CR behavior and the specific features of modeling this behavior in cycle 23 of solar activity (SA) are discussed. It is assumed that a decrease in the CR density at the last SA minimums (from cycle to cycle) can be related to a decrease in the ZO index and to a recently detected similar decrease in the vertical component of the solar dipole magnetic moment.     

Solar activity dependence of ionospheric electron content and slab thickness using different solar indices

Ionospheric electron content (IEC) and slab thickness () data for the period 1977 to 1980 from Lunping (23.03°N; 121.90°E subionospheric) have been examined for their solar activity dependence. Local noontime monthly means as well as values for the 5 QQ days in a month have been examined separately with different solar indices, namely: solar EUV flux (170–190 Å),S _{10.7 cm} flux and sun spot number (SSN) on a seasonal basis. Both IEC and parameters exhibit better correlation with solar EUV andS _{10.7 cm} fluxes than with SSN for all seasons. IEC increases linearly with both EUV andS _{10.7 cm} flux whereas with SSN it shows a distinct nonlinear relationship during all seasons in both monthly mean and 5 QQ days' values. This study indicates that for correlating and predicting the variations (especially the medium term) in the ionospheric parameters, both EUV andS _{10.7 cm} fluxes have an advantage over SSN.     

Relation of long-period variations in the critical frequencies of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> layer to geomagnetic activity

The relation of the long-period variations in the midnight and noon values of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer at three midlatitude stations (Irkutsk, Moscow, and Boulder) to the daily mean index of geomagnetic activity in years of different solar activity has been studied. It has been found that the correlation coefficients between the above parameters depend on time of day, season, and solar activity level. The correlation coefficients are higher at night than in the daytime, especially at low solar activity. The highest absolute values of the correlation coefficient most often appear during equinoxes: April–May and September–October. It has been shown that the variability of the critical frequencies of the midlatitude ionospheric F ₂ layer depends not only on geomagnetic activity but also (to a considerable degree) on the effect of the lower atmosphere.     

Variations in the fractal dimension of fluctuations of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer critical frequency

The 40-year period of observations of short-term variations (with characteristic times of up to 1–2 days) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) is analyzed. The continuous (with a step of 1 h) series of fluctuations (F) of the foF2 critical frequency (with eliminated daily variations) has been calculated using the hourly variations in foF2 at Moscow stations. The fractal dimension (FRH) of the fluctuations, characterizing short-term variations in foF2, has been determined and analyzed on a 30-day interval, using the Higuchi method. It has been established that FRH estimates substantially change in time. The 11-year cycle, which is in antiphase with the solar cycle, and the total annual and semiannual variations, similar to the variations observed in the normalized critical frequency of the E region and in the electron density of the D region, are clearly defined in these changes. Thus, the parameters of fast variations in the ionospheric F2 layer are affected by the phase of the 11-year solar cycle and by the position of the Earth in the orbit or seasonal variations in the atmosphere.     

Semiannual and annual variations in the height of the ionospheric F2-peak

Ionosonde data from sixteen stations are used to study the semiannual and annual variations in the height of the ionospheric F2-peak, hmF2. The semiannual variation, which peaks shortly after equinox, has an amplitude of about 8 km at an average level of solar activity (10.7 cm flux = 140 units), both at noon and midnight. The annual variation has an amplitude of about 11 km at northern midlatitudes, peaking in early summer; and is larger at southern stations, where it peaks in late summer. Both annual and semiannual amplitudes increase with increasing solar activity by day, but not at night. The semiannual variation in hmF2 is unrelated to the semiannual variation of the peak electron density NmF2, and is not reproduced by the CTIP and TIME-GCM computational models of the quiet-day thermosphere and ionosphere. The semiannual variation in hmF2 is approximately isobaric, in that its amplitude corresponds quite well to the semiannual variation in the height of fixed pressure-levels in the thermosphere, as represented by the MSIS empirical model. The annual variation is not isobaric. The annual mean of hmF2 increases with solar 10.7 cm flux, both by night and by day, on average by about 0.45 km/flux unit, rather smaller than the corresponding increase of height of constant pressure-levels in the MSIS model. The discrepancy may be due to solar-cycle variations of thermospheric winds. Although geomagnetic activity, which affects thermospheric density and temperature and therefore hmF2 also, is greatest at the equinoxes, this seems to account for less than half the semiannual variation of hmF2. The rest may be due to a semiannual variation of tidal and wave energy transmitted to the thermosphere from lower levels in the atmosphere.     

Anomalous variations in the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript>-layer structure at geomagnetic midlatitudes of the Southern and Northern hemispheres at the transition from summer to winter conditions under low solar activity

The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere and plasmasphere at low solar activity under quiet geomagnetic conditions on January 15–17, 1985, and July 10–13, 1986, over Millstone Hill station and Argentine Islands ionosonde, the locations of which are approximately magnetically conjugate, have been theoretically calculated. The detected correction of the model input parameters makes it possible to coordinate the measured and calculated anomalous variations in the electron density NmF2 at the height hmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer over Argentine Islands ionosonde as well as the calculated and measured values of NmF2 and electron temperature at the hmF2 height over Millstone Hill station. It has been shown that vibrationally excited N₂ and O₂ molecules almost do not influence the formation of the winter anomaly under the conditions of low solar activity. A difference between the influence of electronically excited O⁺ on N _e ions under winter and summer conditions forms not more than 11% of the N _e winter anomaly event in the F ₂ layer and topside ionosphere. The model without electronically excited O⁺ ions reduces the duration of the N _e winter anomaly event. It has been shown that the seasonal variations in the composition of the neutral atmosphere form mainly the NmF2 winter anomaly event over the Millstone Hill radar at low solar activity.     

Global electron content during solar cycle 23

Global electron content (GEC) as a new ionospheric parameter was first proposed by Afraimovich et al. [2006]. GEC is equal to the total number of electrons in the near-Earth space. GEC better than local parameters reflects the global response to a change in solar activity. It has been indicated that, during solar cycle 23, the GEC dynamics followed similar variations in the solar UV irradiance and F _10.7 index, including the 11-year cycle and 27-day variations. The dynamics of the regional electron content (REC) has been considered for three belts: the equatorial belt and two midlatitude belts in the Northern and Southern hemispheres (±30° and 30°–65° geomagnetic latitudes, respectively). In contrast to GEC, the annual REC component is clearly defined for the northern and southern midlatitude belts; the REC amplitude is comparable with the amplitude of the seasonal variations in the Northern Hemisphere and exceeds this amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere by a factor of ～1.7. The dayside to nightside REC ratio, R(t), at the equator is a factor of 1.5 as low as such a GEC ratio, which indicates that the degree of nighttime ionization is higher, especially during the solar activity maximum. The pronounced annual cycle with the maximal R(t) value near 8.0 for the winter Southern Hemisphere and summer Northern Hemisphere is typical of midlatitudes.