An investigation of near surface wind speed trends in arid and semiarid regions of Iran

Wind plays an important role on the ecosystems and hydrological cycles besides other meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and relative humidity. It strongly affects evapotranspiration, especially in arid and semiarid regions where there are serious problems in regard to water resource management. Evaluating the wind speed trend can provide good information for future agricultural planning. This study was conducted in order to investigate the wind speed trends over 24 synoptic meteorological stations located in arid and semiarid regions of Iran from 1975 to 2005. Near-surface wind speed was trended by nonparametric Mann–Kendall test spatially and temporally in three time scales (annual, seasonal, and monthly). Then, Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the amount of the changes; furthermore, 10-year moving average low-pass filter was applied to show general trends. Finally, the smoothed time series derived from the mentioned filter were classified in three clusters for each time series and then mapped to show their spatial distribution pattern. Results showed insignificant and significant, increasing and decreasing trends during the surveyed time. Wind speeds in less than 50 % of stations changed statistically in all time scales, and in most cases, the frequency of the upward trends was more than that of downward ones. The spatial distribution of significant wind speed showed that the increase mostly occurred in eastern part. Clustering gave us the turning point around 1990. Clearly, when clusters were mapped, they indicated the same pattern as the Z value maps derived from Mann–Kendall test which meant that the outputs of the mentioned method confirmed the other one. As the wind speed trends in different stations likely to follow the previous evapotranspiration (ET₀) trend results in Iran, it confirms that wind speed was an effective parameter on ET₀, even though other parameters should be considered too.     

华南地区城市化对区域气候变化的影响

按照人口数将华南地区站点分为大城市站、一般城市站、郊区站,并利用华南地区1960~2011年的站点观测资料分别计算了3类站点年平均、季节平均的气温、高温日数、降水、相对湿度、风速、日照时数距平序列的变化,分析了城市化对华南地区区域气候的影响。结果表明:相较于背景场,大城市的平均气温有更明显的上升趋势;高温日数在3类站点中均有增加的趋势,在城市化的影响下,大城市的高温日数有明显的增加;平均气温日较差在整个华南地区均有下降趋势,特别是在大城市中。在3类站点中,降雨总量均有减少的趋势,且降雨更多的以中雨及以上的形式表现。该地区的相对湿度、风速、日照时数均呈现减少趋势,在城市化影响下,大城市的相对湿度、风速、日照时数均有明显的减少。华南地区处于我国最大的城市群之一——珠江三角洲地区,同时处于气候系统复杂的热带季风区,因此有必要研究城市化对该地区多个气象变量的可能影响。     

1957～2004年盘锦芦苇湿地的气候变化特征分析

利用1957～2004年盘锦湿地常规气象资料,分析了盘锦湿地的日照、温度、降水和风速的变化特征。结果表明:日照时数的月变化呈双峰曲线,5月和9月表现为日照高峰,7月为日照低谷;近48 a盘锦湿地的年平均气温呈显著的上升趋势,冬季增温最明显,其次为春季,夏季增温最弱,年平均极端最低温度呈显著的上升趋势;近48 a的年平均风速呈显著的下降趋势,月平均风速变化趋势呈双峰曲线。     

海南岛0 cm地温变化特征及其相关气象要素

利用海南岛17个气象观测站1980-2018年逐月0 cm地温及气象要素资料,通过数理统计方法分析了海南岛年和四季的0 cm地温时空变化特征及其与气象要素的关系.结果表明:海南岛年平均0 cm地温呈显著上升趋势,秋季升温对年平均0 cm地温的升高有主要贡献,春季次之.M-K检验表明年与春秋两季0 cm地温在20世纪90...     

1961-2009年东北地区日照时数变化特征

根据1961-2009年东北地区104个气象站的日照时数、气温、降水、风速和相对湿度资料,利用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall分析和相关分析等方法,研究东北地区日照时数月、季、年的时空变化特征,同时还对可能影响日照时数的气候因子进行分析。结果表明：东北地区5月日照时数最高,12月日照时数最低。年日照时数呈显著减少趋势,平均每10 a减少40.5 h;除秋季日照时数变化不显著外,其他季节日照时数均显著减少。在20世纪80年代初期存在明显的突变,日照时数开始减少。东北地区日照时数大致呈西高东低的经向分布;除黑龙江北部地区外,其余大部地区日照时数均呈减少的趋势,其中吉林北部地区减少最为明显。东北地区日照时数与气温呈负相关关系,相关系数为-0.40;与降水呈负相关关系,相关系数为-0.37;与风速呈正相关关系,相关系数为0.53;与相对湿度呈负相关关系,相关系数为-0.32。前三者均通过了99.9 %的信度检验,相对湿度通过了99.5 %的信度检验。     

近43a山西东南部日照时数时空变化特征及其影响因素

基于1976~2018年山西东南部11个地面气象观测站的逐月日照时数资料,分析了近43a山西东南部日照时数的时空变化特征,以及总云量、低云量、水汽压、降水量、雾日数和霾日数等气象因子对日照时数的影响。结果表明:山西东南部平均年日照时数空间差异显著,呈南北多、东西和中部少的分布特征;近43a年山西东南部日照时数呈显著减少趋势,气候倾向率为?71.9h/10a,2005年发生由多转少的突变;四季日照时数由多到少依次为春季、夏季、秋季及冬季,均呈减少趋势,其中春季趋势最小,秋季趋势最大;各月日照时数分布不均匀,5月最多,2月最少,除3月日照时数呈增加趋势外,其余各月均呈减少趋势,6月和9月的减少趋势最为显著;近43a总云量、雾日数、霾日数均呈显著增加趋势,而低云量、水汽压、降水量变化趋势不显著;雾日数增加是导致春季、秋季、冬季和年日照时数减少的重要因子之一,总云量增加是导致夏季、秋季、冬季和年日照时数减少的重要因子之一,降水量增加对夏季日照时数减少也有一定影响。      

Analysis of mid-twentieth century rainfall trends and variability over southwestern Uganda

A methodology has been applied to investigate the spatial variability and trends existent in a mid-twentieth century climatic time series (for the period 1943–1977) recorded by 58 climatic stations in the Albert–Victoria water management area in Uganda. Data were subjected to quality checks before further processing. In the present work, temporal trends were analyzed using Mann–Kendall and linear regression methods. Heterogeneity of monthly rainfall was investigated using the precipitation concentration index (PCI). Results revealed that 53 % of stations have positive trends where 25 % are statistically significant and 45 % of stations have negative trends with 23 % being statistically significant. Very strong trends at 99 % significance level were revealed at 12 stations. Positive trends in January, February, and November at 40 stations were observed. The highest rainfall was recorded in April, while January, June, and July had the lowest rainfall. Spatial analysis results showed that stations close to Lake Victoria recorded high amounts of rainfall. Average annual coefficient of variability was 19 %, signifying low variability. Rainfall distribution is bimodal with maximums experienced in March–April–May and September–October–November seasons of the year. Analysis also revealed that PCI values showed a moderate to seasonal rainfall distribution. Spectral analysis of the time components reveals the existence of a major period around 3, 6, and 10 years. The 6- and 10-year period is a characteristic of September–October–November, March–April–May, and annual time series.     

Variations of the Surface Wettability Index over the Tibetan Plateau During 1971-2005

Based on 1971-2005 monthly mean maximum/minimum temperature,wind speed,relative humidity,sunshine duration,and precipitation data at 25 stations over the Tibetan Plateau,a study of the largest potential evapotranspiration(LPE)is performed by using the Penman-Monteith model.The surface wettability index(SWI)is calculated and examined,together with its space distribution,interannual and seasonal variations,as well as associated causes.The results suggest that the annual area rainfall exhibits a pronounced increasing trend at 15.0 mm per decade; the annual LPE shows a different-degree decrease at-4.6-71.6 mm/10 yr.In the southwestern Ngari prefecture and Nyalam county,the annual SWI displays insignificant decline trends compared to increasing trends in other areas of Tibet(0.02-0.09 per decade).For Tibet,on average,the SWI experiences a noticeable rise at 0.04/10 yr,particularly in 1981-2005.On a seasonal basis,the SWI shows increasing trends,especially in summer.In the 1970s-1980s,the interannual variation is characterized mainly by lower temperature and lower humidity.From the 1990s,air temperature keeps on rising,leading to an appreciable increase in SWI,displayed as a type of warm and humid climate.The salient increases(decrease)of precipitation and relative humidity(mean temperature daily range)are the principal causes of the greatly enhanced SWI in the region.The pronounced decrease in mean wind and sunshine duration also plays an active role.     

Measurements of ozone and its precursor nitrogen dioxide and crop yield losses due to cumulative ozone exposures over 40 ppb (AOT40) in rural coastal southern India

Measurements of ground level ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and meteorological parameters (air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and direction) has been made for 3 years from March 2007 to February 2010 at Nagercoil (8.2°N, 77.5°E, 23 m above sea level), an equatorial rural coastal site of southern India. The monthly average of daytime maximum of O₃ concentrations ranged from 28 to 50 parts per billion (ppb) with an annual average of 19.8 ppb. Similarly, monthly average of NO₂ concentration ranged from 3.4 ppb to 7.7 ppb with an annual average of 5.3 ppb. The monthly variation of meteorological parameters shows the little changes being a coastal site. The estimated summer crops yield losses by 1.1–15.6 % from present O₃ concentration level associated with AOT40 index 3.1–5 ppm h.     

黑龙江省草地螟第三暴发周期气候特征及风险概率

1996年以来,黑龙江省草地螟第三暴发周期持续至今,危害日益加重。以1959—2008年黑龙江省28个国家基本站气象资料以及草地螟暴发期等资料为基础,分析了黑龙江省草地第三暴发周期的气候特征及风险概率。结果表明：近50 a来,黑龙江省年平均气温、年平均最低气温呈显著的上升趋势,通过0.001显著性检验,气温在1988年前后出现突变。其他要素如降水量、降水日数、风速和日照时数均呈减少趋势,但只有年日照时数和年平均风速的减少趋势通过了显著性检验。哈尔滨草地螟始发日期与同期平均气温、日最高气温、最低气温、最小相对湿度关系密切,本地越冬虫源春季羽化对气温、相对湿度敏感性较高;同时,始见日期与最大风速的风向相关较为密切,可能是由于外地虫源对风向敏感性较高。通过对黑龙江省草地螟高峰期首日的风险概率分析,得出草地螟高峰期出现在5月最后一个候的风险概率为23.6%;出现在6月上旬的风险概率为36.6%;出现在6月中旬的风险概率为24.0%;出现在6月下旬的风险概率为14.4%。     

From brightening to dimming in sunshine duration over the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau (1961–2005)

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) with an average elevation of over 4,000 m asl is the highest and most extensive highland in the world. We used monthly mean sunshine duration from the Chinese Meteorological Administration to examine the spatial and temporal variability of sunshine duration at 71 stations with elevations above 2,000 m asl in the eastern and central TP during the 1961–2005 period. The temporal evolution of the mean annual sunshine duration series shows a significant increase from 1961 to 1982 at a rate of 49.8 h/decade, followed by a decrease from 1983 to 2005 at a rate of ?65.1 h/decade, with an overall significant decrease at a rate of ?20.6 h/decade during the whole 1961–2005 period, which is mainly due to the summer and spring seasons. This confirms the evidence that sunshine duration in the TP ranges from brightening to dimming in accordance with sunshine duration trends in the rest of China. The surface solar radiation downwards from ERA-40 reanalysis data in the same region confirms the brightening/dimming phenomenon shown by the sunshine duration before/after the 1980s. Otherwise, additional climatic variables such as low cloud amount, total cloud amount, precipitation, relative humidity and water vapor pressure, in most cases, exhibit significant negative correlation with sunshine duration in the TP on an annual and seasonal basis before and after 1982, respectively. The trends of these variables suggest that changes in some of them might be related to the brightening and dimming detected with the use of sunshine duration measurements over the TP. We also hypothesize that the impact of anthropogenic aerosols upon the climatic variables analyzed cannot be rejected, especially in the significant increase in low cloud cover since approximately 1980.     

Decreasing trend of sunshine hours and related driving forces in Southwestern China

Total hours of sunshine are one of the most important factors affecting climate and environment, and its long-term variation is of much concern in climate studies. Trends of temporal and spatial patterns in sunshine hours and related climatic factors over southwestern China are evaluated for the period 1961–2009 based on data from 111 standard meteorological stations. The results showed that southwestern China is experiencing a statistical decrease of sunshine hours, at the rate of 31.9 h/10a during 1961–2009. The decline was particularly strong in summer, whereas it is nonsignificant in winter. Spatially, statistically significant decreases of sunshine hours mainly occurred in lower altitude regions, especially in the Sichuan basin and Guizhou plateau. Sunshine hours have a high correlation with wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, surface downwards solar radiation flux, and cloud water content, with wind speed showing the strongest relationship to sunshine hours, implicit in the close correlation (temporally and spatially) between the two variables. Changing water vapor and cloud cover influence sunshine hours in southwestern China. In addition, the increased surface downwards solar radiation flux also made some contribution to a rise of sunshine hours during 1991–2009. The larger decreasing trends of sunshine hours at urban stations than rural stations may reflect the effect of urbanization on sunshine hours. Variations are dominated by the comprehensive functions of multiple factors owing to the complex nature of effects on sunshine hours.     

海南岛蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子分析

利用海南岛18个气象观测站1966—2001年逐日20cm口径小型蒸发皿蒸发量及气象要素资料,通过数理统计方法分析了海南岛年和四季的蒸发量变化特征及气象因子对蒸发量的影响。结果表明:从时间上看,海南岛年蒸发量变化呈波动式下降,蒸发量的减少主要出现在春季,冬季和夏季次之。从空间上看,年蒸发量呈东北少、西南多的分布,其大值区主要集中在西南部,小值区主要集中在东北部和中部地区。M-K检验说明年与春冬两季蒸发量的变化呈下降趋势且在1994年前后发生突变。影响蒸发量变化的因子中,日照时数和风速是造成蒸发量减小的主要因子,降水量的影响仅次于风速和日照时数,而气温不是造成海南岛蒸发量减小的主要因子,相对湿度可能是海南岛的蒸发量减小的影响因子。     

Spatio-temporal variance and meteorological drivers of the urban heat island in a European city

Urban areas are especially vulnerable to high temperatures, which will intensify in the future due to climate change. Therefore, both good knowledge about the local urban climate as well as simple and robust methods for its projection are needed. This study has analysed the spatio-temporal variance of the mean nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) of Hamburg, with observations from 40 stations from different suppliers. The UHI showed a radial gradient with about 2 K in the centre mostly corresponding to the urban densities. Temporarily, it has a strong seasonal cycle with the highest values between April and September and an inter-annual variability of approximately 0.5 K. Further, synoptic meteorological drivers of the UHI were analysed, which generally is most pronounced under calm and cloud-free conditions. Considered were meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, wind speed, cloud cover and objective weather types. For the stations with the highest UHI intensities, up to 68.7 % of the variance could be explained by seasonal empirical models and even up to 76.6 % by monthly models.     

Analysis of Changes in Sunshine Duration Data for Ankara, Turkey

Summary  The variations and trends of hourly sunshine duration at Ankara for the period 1955–1996 were examined. A tangible change of 7 percent was determined relative to the annual baseline. Decreases were detected in each hour of the day and appear to be highest at sunrise and sunset. Changes in relative humidity that may lead to changes in the threshold of the sunshine recorders were evaluated in order to explain the decreases of sunshine duration. Correlations with other meteorological parameters were also analysed. The results indicate that the variations and trends in sunshine duration can be explained by changes in the other meteorological parameters. Received September 11, 1998 Revised March 18, 1999     

近60a巴彦淖尔市气候变化特征及影响因子分析

为了解巴彦淖尔市近60 a的气候变化特征,基于巴彦淖尔市9个气象观测站1961—2020年的逐月平均气温、降水量、日照时数、瞬时风速资料,采用线性倾向趋势分析、滑动平均法、M-K检验法、累计距平法、滑动t检验法、Morlet小波分析法对气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明：(1)近60 a巴彦淖尔市年平均气温增温趋势,年日照时数、年平均风速减少趋势显著,年降水量变化趋势不显著;(2)空间分布上,年平均气温为北低南高,年降水量为东多西少,年日照时数为西北、东南部相对多,其余地区相对少,年平均风速为南小北大;(3)年平均气温在1996年发生突变,年日照时数在1999、2014年发生突变,年平均风速在1982年发生突变,年降水量未发生突变;(4)主要的周期振荡,年平均气温、年降水量在30、13 a左右,年日照时数在13 a左右,年平均风速在20 a左右和10 a左右;(5)北极涛动指数对春冬季气温、春季降水、秋冬季风速有较为显著的影响,北大西洋涛动指数对春冬季气温、夏冬季风速有较为显著的影响,南方涛动指数对冬季降水有较为显著的影响,太平洋北美指数对冬季气温、春季降水有较为显著的影响。     

Spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in Yunnan Province, SW China, 1961–2004

Evapotranspiration is an important flux term in the water cycle that integrates atmospheric demand and surface conditions. Using the FAO Penman–Monteith method, we calculated monthly reference evapotranspiration (ET0) for 119 stations during 1961–2004 over Yunnan Province (YP), southwest China. Linear trend analysis shows that area-averaged annual and seasonal ET0 rates declined, with most remarkable decreases during pre-monsoon (?1.5 mm decade^?1, Mar–May) and monsoon (?0.6 mm decade^?1, Jun–Aug) seasons. Most of the stations with negative trends were concentrated in the eastern and northern parts of YP. Over the 44–year period, wind speed (WS), relative sunshine duration (SD) and relative humidity (RH) all showed decreasing trends, whereas maximum temperature (TMX) increased slightly. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that the variability of ET0 rates is most sensitive to the variations of SD, followed by RH, TMX and WS. The temporal evolution of these contributing factors was not stable during the study period, with an increasing contribution of SD and a decreasing contribution of TMX after the 1970s. Temporally changing contributions of climatic variables to ET0 should be taken into account when evapotranspiration rates are calculated with equations that rely on parameterization of climatic variables. Linking the changing contributions of climatic variables to ET0 rates to circulation features may help to better understand how ET0 responds to regional climatic change.     

江苏省太阳总辐射的分布特征

利用江苏省淮安、南京、吕泗3站的逐月太阳总辐射资料和70个气象站的月日照百分率资料,采用气候学计算方法,计算并分析了全省各地逐月的太阳总辐射分布,指出江苏省太阳总辐射的季节分布特征是冬少夏多,春秋适量;太阳总辐射区域分布是北多南少;太阳总辐射的年变化呈现明显的双峰型分布,最大峰值分别出现在5月和7月下旬—8月上旬,6月下旬—7月上旬出现一个相对低谷阶段,恰好与江淮梅雨期多阴雨天气相对应。本文的结论为江苏省太阳能资源的开发利用提供了科学依据。     

Evaluating persistence and identifying trends and abrupt changes in monthly and annual rainfalls of a semi-arid region in Western India

In this study, 43-year (1965–2007) monthly and annual rainfall time series of ten rainfall stations in a semi-arid region of western India are analyzed by adopting three tests for testing normality and by applying autoregressive technique for exploring persistence. Gradual trends are identified by three tests, and their magnitudes are assessed by the Sen’s slope estimator. Also, abrupt changes are detected by using four tests and they are further confirmed by two tests. Box-whisker plots revealed that the rainfalls of June and September are right skewed for all the stations. The annual rainfalls of Bhinder, Dhariawad, and Gogunda stations are found considerably right skewed. The normality tests indicated that the rainfall of July does not deviate from the normal distribution at all the stations. However, the annual rainfall is found non-normal at five stations. The monthly rainfalls of June, July, and August have persistence respectively at three (Mavli, Salumber, and Sarada), two (Kherwara and Sarada), and one (Mavli) stations, whereas the annual rainfall has persistence at Girwa and Mavli stations. Significantly increasing trend is detected at Mavli in the rainfall of July and in the annual rainfall (p value?>?0.05), while the negative trend in August rainfall at Dhariawad is found significant (p value?>?0.10). This study revealed that the presence of serial correlation does not affect the performance of the Mann-Kendall test. Mean values of trend magnitudes for the rainfalls of June, July, August, and September are 0.3, 0.8, ?0.4, and 0.4 mm year^?1, respectively, and the overall mean value for the annual rainfall is 0.9 mm year^?1. It is found that the standard normal homogeneity test and the Pettitt test are biased towards the end of the series to locate a change point. Conversely, the Bayesian test has a tendency to look for a change point in the beginning of time series. Confirmed abrupt changes in the rainfall time series are found in the year 2003 (Bhinder) in June; years 1974 (Mavli) and 1989 (Dhariawad and Salumber) in July; years 1972 (Sarada), 1990 (Dhariawad), and 2003 (Mavli) in August; years 1977 (Dhariawad), 1991 (Sarada), and 2004 (Kotra) in September; and in the year 1972 (Mavli and Sarada stations) in the annual series. It is emphasized that the significantly increasing trend of rainfall may have linkages with climate change and/or variability. Finally, this study recommends use of multiple statistical tests for analyzing hydrologic time series in order to ensure reliable decisions.     

STUDIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA IN RECENT 45 YEARS

Based on the data of monthly mean air temperature and precipitation from about 400 stationsin 1951—1995.and the data of maximum and minimum air temperatures,relative humidity,totalcloud cover and low-cloud cover,sunshine duration,evaporation,wind speed,snow-covered daysand depth,and soil temperatures in 8 layers from 0 m down to 3.2 m from 200 odd stations in 1961—1995.the climate change and its characteristics in China in recent 45 years have been analyzedand studied comprehensively.This paper,as the first part of the work.has analyzed the climatechange and regularities of such meteorological elements as mean air temperature,maximum andminimum air temperatures,precipitation,relative humidity and sunshine duration.The possiblemechanism on climate change in China and the climate change and regularities of othermeteorological elements will be discussed in another paper as the second part.