Assessing the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrological processes in a glacier‐dominated catchment

The processes by which climate change affects streamflow in alpine river basins are not entirely understood. This study evaluated the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on runoff and streamflow using glacier‐enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The study used observed and detrended historical meteorological data for recent decades (1961–2005) to analyse individual and combined effects of temperature and precipitation changes on snow and glacier melts and discharges in the Sary‐Djaz‐Kumaric River Basin (SRB), Tianshan Mountains. The results showed a 1.3% increase in annual snowmelt in the basin, mainly because of an increase in precipitation. Snowmelt in the basin varied seasonally, increasing from April through May because of increasing precipitation and decreasing from July through September because of rising temperature. Glacier melt increased by 5.4%, 5.0% of which was due to rising temperature and only 0.4% due to increasing precipitation. Annual streamflow increased by 4.4%, of which temperature and precipitation increases accounted for 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively. The impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on streamflow were especially significant after 1980 and even more so in September. Glacier melt, due to temperature rise, was the dominant driver of increasing streamflow in the glacier‐dominated SRB, Tianshan Mountains. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow and glacier melt in the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam in the western Himalayan region

Abstract

Streamflow in the Himalayan rivers is generated from rainfall, snow and ice. The distribution of runoff produced from these sources is such that the streamflow may be observed in these rivers throughout the year, i.e. they are perennial in nature. Snow and glacier melt runoff contributes substantially to the annual flows of these rivers and its estimation is required for the planning, development and management of the water resources of this region. The average contribution of snow and glacier melt runoff in the annual flows of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam has been determined. Keeping in view the availability of data for the study basin, a water balance approach was used and a water budget period of 10 years (October 1986-September 1996) was considered for the analysis. The rainfall input to the study basin over the water budget period was computed from isohyets using rainfall data of 10 stations located at different elevations in the basin. The total volume of flow for the same period was computed using observed flow data of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam. A relationship between temperature and evaporation was developed and used to estimate the evapotranspiration losses. The snow-covered area, and its depletion with time, was determined using satellite data. It was found that the average contribution of snow and glacier runoff in the annual flow of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam is about 59%, the remaining 41% being from rain.     

The importance of aspect for modelling the hydrological response in a glacier catchment in Central Asia

Understanding how explicit consideration of topographic information influences hydrological model performance and upscaling in glacier dominated catchments remains underexplored. In this study, the Urumqi glacier no. 1 catchment in northwest China, with 52% of the area covered by glaciers, was selected as study site. A conceptual glacier‐hydrological model was developed and tested to systematically, simultaneously, and robustly reproduce the hydrograph, separate the discharge into contributions from glacier and nonglacier parts of the catchment, and establish estimates of the annual glacier mass balance, the annual equilibrium line altitude, and the daily catchment snow water equivalent. This was done by extending and adapting a recently proposed landscape‐based semidistributed conceptual hydrological model (FLEX‐Topo) to represent glacier and snowmelt processes. The adapted model, FLEX^G, allows to explicitly account for the influence of topography, that is, elevation and aspect, on the distribution of temperature and precipitation and thus on melt dynamics. It is shown that the model can not only reproduce long‐term runoff observations but also variations in glacier and snow cover. Furthermore, FLEX^G was successfully transferred and up‐scaled to a larger catchment exclusively by adjusting the areal proportions of elevation and aspect without the need for further calibration. This underlines the value of topographic information to meaningfully represent the dominant hydrological processes in the region and is further exacerbated by comparing the model to a model formulation that does not account for differences in aspect (FLEX^G,nA) and which, in spite of satisfactorily reproducing the observed hydrograph, does not capture the influence of spatial variability of snow and ice, which as a consequence reduces model transferability. This highlights the importance of accounting for topography and landscape heterogeneity in conceptual hydrological models in mountainous and snow‐, and glacier‐dominated regions.     

Baseflow separation in a small watershed in New Brunswick,Canada, using a recursive digital filter calibrated with the conductivity mass balance method

Baseflow separation is important for obtaining critical parameters for hydrological models. As measuring the baseflow component directly is difficult, various analytical and empirical baseflow separation methods have been developed and tested. The recursive digital filter (RDF) method is commonly used for baseflow separation due to its simplicity and low data requirement. However, parameters used in the RDF method are often determined arbitrarily, resulting in high uncertainty of the estimated baseflow rate. A more accurate method is the conductivity mass balance (CMB) method, which is established based on the differences in physical processes between baseflow and surface runoff. In this research, the output of the CMB method was used to calibrate the parameters of an RDF model, and the calibrated RDF model was used to estimate monthly, seasonal and annual baseflow rate and baseflow index for the past 19 years using streamflow discharge records. The characteristics of the baseflow hydrographs were found to be consistent with the hydrological and hydrogeological conditions of the research area. Research results indicated that the accuracy of the RDF model has been greatly enhanced after being calibrated with the CMB method so that the RDF model can provide more reliable baseflow separation results for a long‐term study. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extended Kalman filter for material parameter estimation in nonlinear structural finite element models using direct differentiation method

This paper presents a novel nonlinear finite element (FE) model updating framework, in which advanced nonlinear structural FE modeling and analysis techniques are used jointly with the extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate time‐invariant parameters associated to the nonlinear material constitutive models used in the FE model of the structural system of interest. The EKF as a parameter estimation tool requires the computation of structural FE response sensitivities (total partial derivatives) with respect to the material parameters to be estimated. Employing the direct differentiation method, which is a well‐established procedure for FE response sensitivity analysis, facilitates the application of the EKF in the parameter estimation problem. To verify the proposed nonlinear FE model updating framework, two proof‐of‐concept examples are presented. For each example, the FE‐simulated response of a realistic prototype structure to a set of earthquake ground motions of varying intensity is polluted with artificial measurement noise and used as structural response measurement to estimate the assumed unknown material parameters using the proposed nonlinear FE model updating framework. The first example consists of a cantilever steel bridge column with three unknown material parameters, while a three‐story three‐bay moment resisting steel frame with six unknown material parameters is used as second example. Both examples demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed parameter estimation framework even in the presence of high measurement noise. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Separation of base flow from streamflow using groundwater levels—illustrated for the Pang catchment (UK)

A new filter to separate base flow from streamflow has developed that uses observed groundwater levels. To relate the base flow to the observed groundwater levels, a non‐linear relation was used. This relation is suitable for unconfined aquifers with deep groundwater levels that do not respond to individual rainfall event. Because the filter was calibrated using total streamflow, an estimate of the direct runoff was also needed. The direct runoff was estimated from precipitation and potential evapotranspiration using a water balance model. The parameters for the base flow and direct runoff were estimated simultaneously using a Monte Carlo approach. Instead of one best solution, a range of satisfactory solutions was accepted. The filter was applied to data from two nested gauging stations in the Pang catchment (UK). Streamflow at the upstream station (Frilsham) is strongly dominated by base flow from the main aquifer, whereas at the downstream station (Pangbourne) a significant component of direct runoff also occurs. The filter appeared to provide satisfactory estimates at both stations. For Pangbourne, the rise of the base flow was strongly delayed compared with the rise of the streamflow. However, base flow exceeded streamflow on several occasions, especially during summer and autumn, which might be explained by evapotranspiration from riparian vegetation. To evaluate the results, the base flow was also estimated using three existing base‐flow separation filters: an arithmetic filter (BFI), a digital filter (Boughton) and another filter based on groundwater levels (Kliner and Knĕz̆ek). Both the BFI and Boughton filters showed a much smaller difference in base flow between the two stations. The Kliner and Knĕz̆ek filter gave consistently lower estimates of the base flow. Differences and lack of clarity in the definition of base flow complicated the comparison between the filters. An advantage of the method introduced in this paper is the clear interpretation of the separated components. A disadvantage is the high data requirement. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine

Abstract

The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular, during the summer months, low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km²) in the Swiss Alps, with a glacierization of 7%, the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff, as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff, not only for high mountain catchments, but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine.

Citation Junghans, N., Cullmann, J. & Huss, M. (2011) Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 981–993.     

Application of distributed hydrological models for predictions in ungauged basins: a method to quantify predictive uncertainty

Stream flow predictions in ungauged basins are one of the most challenging tasks in surface water hydrology because of nonavailability of data and system heterogeneity. This study proposes a method to quantify stream flow predictive uncertainty of distributed hydrologic models for ungauged basins. The method is based on the concepts of deriving probability distribution of model's sensitive parameters by using measured data from a gauged basin and transferring the distribution to hydrologically similar ungauged basins for stream flow predictions. A Monte Carlo simulation of the hydrologic model using sampled parameter sets with assumed probability distribution is conducted. The posterior probability distributions of the sensitive parameters are then computed using a Bayesian approach. In addition, preselected threshold values of likelihood measure of simulations are employed for sizing the parameter range, which helps reduce the predictive uncertainty. The proposed method is illustrated through two case studies using two hydrologically independent sub‐basins in the Cedar Creek watershed located in Texas, USA, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The probability distribution of the SWAT parameters is derived from the data from one of the sub‐basins and is applied for simulation in the other sub‐basin considered as pseudo‐ungauged. In order to assess the robustness of the method, the numerical exercise is repeated by reversing the gauged and pseudo‐ungauged basins. The results are subsequently compared with the measured stream flow from the sub‐basins. It is observed that the measured stream flow in the pseudo‐ungauged basin lies well within the estimated confidence band of predicted stream flow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of terrestrial photogrammetry based on structure‐from‐motion for mass balance estimation of a small glacier in the Italian alps

Different high‐resolution techniques can be employed to obtain information about the three‐dimensional (3D) surface of glaciers. This is typically carried out using efficient, but also expensive and logistically demanding, light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technologies, such as airborne scanners and terrestrial laser scanners. Recent technological improvements in the field of image analysis and computer vision have prompted the development of a low‐cost photogrammetric approach, which is referred to as ‘structure‐from‐motion’ (SfM). Combined with dense image‐matching algorithms, this method has become competitive for the production of high‐quality 3D models. However, several issues typical of this approach should be considered for application in glacial environments. In particular, the surface morphology, the different substrata, the occurrence of sharp contrast from solar shadows and the variable distance from the camera positions can negatively affect the image texture, and reduce the possibility of obtaining a reliable point cloud from the images. The objective of this study is to test the structure‐from‐motion multi view stereo (SfM‐MVS) approach in a small debris‐covered glacier located in the eastern Italian Alps, using a consumer‐grade reflex camera and the computer vision‐based software PhotoScan. The quality of the 3D models produced by the SfM‐MVS process was assessed via the comparison with digital terrain models obtained from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) surveys that were performed at the same epochs. The effect of different terrain gradients and different substrata (debris, snow and firn) was also evaluated in terms of the accuracy of the reconstruction by SfM‐MVS versus TLS. Our results show that the quality of this new photogrammetric approach is similar to the quality of TLS and that point cloud densities are comparable or even higher compared with TLS. However, special care should be taken while planning the SfM survey geometry, to optimize the 3D model quality and spatial coverage. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological study of the potential effects of the melting of Nevado del Ruiz glacier on urban growth zones in Manizales,Colombia

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the results of a hydrological study aimed at characterizing flood-prone areas in the urban growth zone in the city of Manizales based on the potential effects of melting of the Nevado del Ruiz glacier, in Caldas, Colombia. These results constitute a basis for decision making regarding possible urban growth zones in Andean areas that face risks from volcanic eruptions producing lahars and floods caused by glacier melt. Conservative estimates of extreme flows in the Chinchiná River in the urban growth area of El Rosario can be obtained by considering the effects of rain triggered by airborne particulate material following a volcanic explosion combined with the effects of glacier melt. The effects of global warming on tropical glaciers contribute to their retreat, leading to their disappearance. Therefore, the worst scenario would take place if these events occurred in the short term as glacier volume decreases with time.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor not assigned     

The SEEK filter method for data assimilation in oceanography: a synthesis

This paper reviews the developments of the singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter method used for data assimilation in oceanography, since the original paper by Pham et al. (J Mar Syst 16:3–4, 323–340 1998a). First, a short review is presented of the context of data assimilation in oceanography and of the variety of numerical ocean codes and configurations in which the SEEK filter has been implemented using different data sets for assimilation. Then, the paper provides an exposition of the different versions of the SEEK filter developed during the past 10 years and discusses their relative merits for scientific or operational implementations. A classification of the algorithmic variants is proposed, and several possible improvements of the generic methodology are mentioned in the perspective of new assimilation challenges.     

Comparison of design peak flow estimation methods for ungauged basins in Iran

ABSTRACT

Determining the catchment design peak flow is crucial in hydrological practice. In this paper, the conceptual rainfall–runoff model EBA4SUB (Event-Based Approach for Small and Ungauged Basins) was applied in six catchments in Iran. The aims were to test EBA4SUB in reconstructing runoff hydrographs for the investigated case studies and to provide a suitable alternative for the review and updating of design peak flow estimation in Iran. The EBA4SUB output was compared with previous studies on selected catchments. The results show, for all case studies, a large variability in the peak flow values; the EBA4SUB model gave flow values similar to the other methodologies. The EBA4SUB model can be recommended for the following reasons: (i) it minimizes the subjectivity of the modeller. (ii) its modules are based on state-of-the-art procedures, which have been appropriately optimized for ungauged basins; and (iii) it furnishes the whole design flood hydrograph.     

Efficient hybrid breaching‐filling sink removal methods for flow path enforcement in digital elevation models

Digital elevation models (DEMs) that are used in hydrological applications must be processed to remove sinks, mainly topographic depressions. Flow enforcement techniques include filling methods, which raise elevations within depressions, breaching, which carves channels through blockages, and hybrid methods. Despite previous research demonstrating the large impact to DEMs and subsequent analyses of depression filling, it is common practice apply this technique to flow enforcement. This is partly because of the greater efficiency of depression filling tools compared to breaching counterparts, which often limits breaching to applications of small‐ to moderate‐sized DEMs. A new hybrid flow enforcement algorithm is presented in this study. The method can be run in complete breaching, selective breaching (either breached or filled), or constrained breaching (partial breaching) modes, allowing for greater flexibility in how practitioners enforce continuous flow paths. Algorithm performance was tested with DEMs of varying topography, spatial extents, and resolution. The sites included three moderate sized DEMs (52 000 000 to 190 000 000 cells) and three massive DEMs of the Iberian Peninsula, and the Amazon and Nile River basins, the largest containing nearly one billion cells. In complete breaching mode, the new algorithm required 87% of the time needed by a filling method to process the test DEMs, while the selective breaching and constrained breaching modes, operating with maximum breach depth constraints, increased run times by 8% and 27% respectively. Therefore, the new algorithm offers comparable performance to filling and the ability to process massive topographic data sets, while giving practitioners greater flexibility and lowering DEM impact. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coupling the Xinanjiang model to a kinematic flow model based on digital drainage networks for flood forecasting

The Xinanjiang model, which is a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model and has been successfully and widely applied in humid and semi‐humid regions in China, is coupled by the physically based kinematic wave method based on a digital drainage network. The kinematic wave Xinanjiang model (KWXAJ) uses topography and land use data to simulate runoff and overland flow routing. For the modelling, the catchment is subdivided into numerous hillslopes and consists of a raster grid of flow vectors that define the water flow directions. The Xinanjiang model simulates the runoff yield in each grid cell, and the kinematic wave approach is then applied to a ranked raster network. The grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model was applied to simulate basin‐scale water discharge from an 805‐km² catchment of the Huaihe River, China. Rainfall and discharge records were available for the years 1984, 1985, 1987, 1998 and 1999. Eight flood events were used to calibrate the model's parameters and three other flood events were used to validate the grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model. A Manning's roughness via a linear flood depth relationship was suggested in this paper for improving flood forecasting. The calibration and validation results show that this model works well. A sensitivity analysis was further performed to evaluate the variation of topography (hillslopes) and land use parameters on catchment discharge. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

均衡拟多道匹配滤波法在波动方程法压制多次波中的应用

本文针对单道最小二乘自适应匹配滤波方法在一次波和多次波分量不正交的情况下不能获得正确匹配的问题,提出均衡拟多道最小二乘自适应匹配滤波方法,该方法采取在空间方向上均衡的办法,使得均衡范围内记录中的一次波和多次波分量总是正交的,并结合拟多道最小二乘自适应匹配能更好匹配记录波形的特点,使得该方法取得很好的自适应匹配效果.通过对简单模型、SEG/EAGE SMAART模型和实际资料压制多次波的处理,结果表明该方法效果良好.     

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.     

Development of a flood water level estimation method using satellite images and a digital elevation model for the Mekong floodplain

We have developed a flood water level estimation method that only employs satellite images and a DEM. The method involves three steps: (1) discriminating flood areas and identifying clumps of each flood area, (2) extracting the edges of the identified flood area using a buffering technique, and (3) performing spatial interpolation to transform the extracted elevation to flood water levels. We compared the estimated flood water levels with the observed ones. The RMSE using the RADARSAT was 1.99 and 1.30 m at river and floodplain points, respectively, whereas the RMSE using the MODIS was 4.33 and 1.33 m at the river and floodplain points, respectively. Given that most errors are attributed to the DEM, the method exhibited good performance. Furthermore, the method reproduced the flow directions and flood water level changes during the flooding period. Thus, we demonstrated that the characteristics of flood inundation can be understood even when ground observation data cannot be obtained.     

An improved method for single flow direction calculation in grid digital elevation models

This paper presents improvements to the global D8 (GD8) method for calculating single flow directions in a grid digital elevation model. Flow directions computed from grid digital elevation models serve as the foundation for much of the analysis and modeling of hydrological processes that are driven by topographic gradients. The literature includes both single flow direction methods, where flow goes to only one downslope cell, and multiple flow direction methods that apportion flow among multiple downslope cells. Among single flow direction methods, the standard D8 method, in which the flow direction is set based on the steepest local slope, results in bias on surfaces that do not align with the grid directions. Efforts to address this problem have led to the development of extended methods that account for elevation values further upslope in determining flow directions. We have identified discrepancies in one such method, GD8, and have examined ways to resolve these discrepancies. An improvement to GD8, named iGD8, is presented that allows replacing a reference cell from which path deviations are accumulated and that considers horizontal path deviation rather than global slope as a flow direction criterion. The improved method is found to be effective in resolving the problems encountered with GD8 and to be more efficient than a previously proposed alternative method (least transversal deviation (LTD) based D8, namely D8‐LTD) that uses recursive searching for the largest upstream area when multiple flow paths converge. The proposed improved GD8 method offers the opportunity for improved analysis and modeling of topographically driven hydrological processes by providing better foundational flow directions for these analyses.     

Adaptive multi-scale parameterization for one-dimensional flow in unsaturated porous media

In the analysis of the unsaturated zone, one of the most challenging problems is to use inverse theory in the search for an optimal parameterization of the porous media. Adaptative multi-scale parameterization consists in solving the problem through successive approximations by refining the parameter at the next finer scale all over the domain and stopping the process when the refinement does not induce significant decrease of the objective function any more. In this context, the refinement indicators algorithm provides an adaptive parameterization technique that opens the degrees of freedom in an iterative way driven at first order by the model to locate the discontinuities of the sought parameters. We present a refinement indicators algorithm for adaptive multi-scale parameterization that is applicable to the estimation of multi-dimensional hydraulic parameters in unsaturated soil water flow. Numerical examples are presented which show the efficiency of the algorithm in case of noisy data and missing data.