Modelling and assessment of hydrological changes in a developing urban catchment

Urbanization strongly changes natural catchment by increasing impervious coverage and by creating a need for efficient drainage systems. Such land cover changes lead to more rapid hydrological response to storms and change distribution of peak and low flows. This study aims to explore and assess how gradual hydrological changes occur during urban development from rural area to a medium‐density residential catchment. The Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) is utilized to simulate a series of scenarios in a same developing urban catchment. Sub‐hourly hydro‐meteorological data in warm season is used to calibrate and validate the model in the fully developed catchment in 2006. The validated model is then applied to other cases in development stage and runoff management scenarios. Based on the simulations and observations, three key problems are solved: (1) how catchment hydrology changes with land cover change, (2) how urban development changes pre‐development flows, and (3) how stormwater management techniques affect catchment hydrology. The results show that the low‐frequency flow rates had remarkably increased from 2004 to 2006 along with the increase of impervious areas. Urbanization in the residential catchment expands the runoff contributing area, accelerates hydrological response, raises peak flows in an order of magnitude of over 10, and more than doubles the total runoff volume. The effects of several LID controls on runoff hydrograph were simulated, and the techniques were able to reduce flows towards the pre‐development levels. However, the partly restored flow regime was still clearly changed in comparison to the pre‐development flow conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relative impacts of climate change and urbanization on the hydrological response of a Korean urban watershed

We assessed the relative hydrological impacts of climate change and urbanization using an integrated approach that links the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), the Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) and the impervious cover model (ICM). A case study of the Anyangcheon watershed, a representative urban region in Korea, illustrates how the proposed framework can be used to analyse the impacts of climate change and urbanization on water quantity and quality. The evaluation criteria were measurements of low flow (99, 95, and 90 percentile flow), high flow (10, 5, and 1 percentile value), pollutant concentration (30, 10, and 1 percentile value), and the numbers of days required to satisfy the target water quantity and quality for a sensitive comparison of subtle impacts of variations in these measures. Nine scenarios, including three climate scenarios (present conditions, A1B, and A2) and three land use change scenarios, were analysed using the HSPF model. The impacts of climate change on low flow (34·1–59·8% increase) and high flow (29·1–37·1% increase) were found to be much greater than those on the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) (3·8–10·0% decrease). On the other hand, the impacts of urbanization on water quality (19·0–44·6% increase) are more significant than those on high (1·0–4·4% increase) and low flow (11·4–25·6% decrease). Furthermore, low flows are more sensitive to urbanization than high flows. The number of days required to satisfy the target water quantity and quality can be a sensitive criterion to compare the subtle impacts of climate and urbanization on human society, especially as they are much more sensitive than low flow and pollutant concentration. Finally, urbanization has a potent impact on BOD while climate change has a high impact on flow rate. Therefore, the impacts of both climate change and urbanization must be included in watershed management and water resources planning for sustainable development. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of rainfall intensity fluctuations on infiltration and runoff: rainfall simulation on dryland soils,Fowlers Gap,Australia

Small plots and a dripper rainfall simulator were used to explore the significance of the intensity fluctuations (‘event profile’) within simulated rainfall events on infiltration and runoff from bare, crusted dryland soils. Rainfall was applied at mean rain rates of 10 mm/h. Fourteen simulated rainfall events each involved more than 5000 changes of intensity and included multipeak events with a 25‐mm/h peak of intensity early in the event or late in the event and an event that included a temporary cessation of rain. These are all event profiles commonly seen in natural rain but rarely addressed in rainfall simulation. A rectangular event profile of constant intensity, as commonly used in rainfall simulation experiments, was also adopted for comparative purposes. Results demonstrate that event profile exerts an important effect on infiltration and runoff for these soils and rainfall event profiles. ‘Uniform’ events of unvarying intensity yielded the lowest total runoff, the lowest peak runoff rate and the lowest runoff ratio (0.13). These parameters increased for ‘early peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.24) and reached maxima for ‘late peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.50). Differences in runoff ratio and peak runoff rate between the ‘uniform’ event profile and those of varying intensity were all statistically significant at p ≤ 0.01. Compared with ‘uniform’ runs, the varying intensity runs yielded larger runoff ratios and peak runoff rates, exceeding those of the ‘uniform’ events by 85%–570%. These results suggest that for small‐plot studies of infiltration and erosion, the continued use of constant rainfall intensity simulations may be sacrificing important information and misrepresenting the mechanisms involved in runoff generation. The implications of these findings for the ecohydrology of the research site, an area of contour‐aligned banded vegetation in which runoff and runon are of critical importance, are highlighted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying hydrograph parameters and their relationships to urbanization variables

Abstract

This study examines relationships between model parameters and urbanization variables for evaluating urbanization effects in a watershed. Rainfall–runoff simulation using the Nash model is the main basis of the study. Mean rainfall and excesses resulting from time-variant losses were completed using the kriging and nonlinear programming methods, respectively. Calibrated parameters of 47 events were related to urbanized variables, change of shape parameter responds more sensitively than that of scale parameter based on comparisons between annual average and optimal interval methods. Regression equations were used to obtain four continuous correlations for linking shape parameter with urbanization variables. Verification of 10 events demonstrates that shape parameter responds more strongly to imperviousness than to population, and a power relationship is suitable. Therefore, an imperviousness variable is a major reference for analysing urbanization changes to a watershed. This study found that time to peak of IUH was reduced from 11.76 to 3.97 h, whereas peak discharge increased from 44.79 to 74.92 m³/s.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Huang, S.-Y., Cheng, S.-J., Wen, J.-C. and Lee, J.-H., 2012. Identifying hydrograph parameters and their relationships to urbanization variables. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 144–161.     

太湖平原高度城镇化下降雨特征时空变化研究

随着人类活动和气候变化影响的加剧,降雨特征变化引发的洪水问题日益突出,探讨其时空演变特征对保障高度城镇化地区洪涝安全有较大理论和实际意义.本研究以高度城镇化的太湖平原地区为例,选取降雨强度、降雨历时、降雨集中程度和降雨峰值程度为降雨类型特征指标,以高分辨率短历时加权集合降水资料MSWEP(multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation)为基础探讨了快速城市化发展下(1979—2016年)不同降雨历时—强度—类型的时空演变规律及其演变机制.研究结果表明：(1)研究区的降雨频次呈现出强度小、历时短、雨量集中于中期和高峰型降雨发生的频次高的特征;同时历时较短、集中于前期和后期的降雨频次趋于增加,而历时较长、集中于中期且中峰型降雨的频次趋于减少.(2)城镇化对降雨雨型的影响分析发现,高城镇化水平地区较低城镇化水平地区的降雨量更大,其中降雨强度大于25 mm/d的大雨和暴雨事件更易发生;并且更倾向于发生前期型和高峰型的极端分布降雨.随着城镇化发展研究区更易于遭受因降雨量过于集中而导致的雨涝灾害.     

Shallow groundwater response to rainfall on a forested headwater catchment in northern coastal California: implications of topography,rainfall, and throughfall intensities on peak pressure head generation

The pore water pressure head that builds in the soil during storms is a critical factor for the prediction of potential slope instability. We report findings from a 3‐year study of pressure head in 83 piezometers distributed within a 13‐ha forested catchment on the northern coast of California. The study's primary objective was to observe the seasonal and storm‐based dynamics of pressure head at a catchment scale in relation to observed rainfall characteristics and in situ topography to better understand landscape patterns of pressure head. An additional goal was to determine the influence of the interaction between rainfall and forest canopy in altering delivery of water and pressure head during the large storms necessary to induce landsliding. We found that pressure head was highly variable in space and time at the catchment scale. Pore pressures peaked close to maximum rainfall intensity during the largest storms measured. The difference between rainfall and throughfall delivered through the canopy was negligible during the critical landslide‐producing peak rainfall periods. Pore pressure was spatially variable within the catchment and did not strongly correlate with surficial topographic features. Only 23% of the piezometers located in a variety of slope positions were found to be highly responsive to rainfall. Topographic index statistically explained peak pressure head at responsive locations during common storms, but not during the larger storms with potential to produce landslides. Drainage efficiency throughout the catchment increased significantly in storms exceeding 2 to 7 months peak pressure head return period indicated by slowing or cessation of the rate of increase of pressure head with increasing storm magnitude. This asymptotic piezometric pattern persisted through the largest storm measured during the study. Faster soil drainage suppressed pressure head response in larger storms with important process implications for pore pressure development and landslide hazard modelling. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a humid,equatorial catchment: sensitivity of projections to rainfall intensity

Abstract

Projected warming in equatorial Africa, accompanied by greater evaporation and more frequent heavy precipitation events, may have substantial but uncertain impacts on terrestrial hydrology. Quantitative analyses of climate change impacts on catchment hydrology require high-resolution (<50 km) climate data provided by regional climate models (RCMs). We apply validated precipitation and temperature data from the RCM PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) to a semi-distributed soil moisture balance model (SMBM) in order to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a medium-sized catchment (2098 km²) in the humid tropics of southwestern Uganda. The SMBM explicitly accounts for changes in soil moisture, and partitions effective precipitation into groundwater recharge and runoff. Under the A2 emissions scenario (2070–2100), climate projections from PRECIS feature not only rises in catchment precipitation and modelled potential evapotranspiration by 14% and 53%, respectively, but also increases in rainfall intensity. We show that the common application of the historical rainfall distribution using delta factors to the SMBM grossly underestimates groundwater recharge (i.e. 55% decrease relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990). By transforming the rainfall distribution to account for changes in rainfall intensity, we project increases in recharge and runoff of 53% and 137%, respectively, relative to the baseline period.     

Modelling the effects of changes in rainfall event characteristics on TSS loads in urban runoff

The effect of changes in rainfall event characteristics on urban stormwater quality, which was described by total suspended solids (TSS), was studied by means of computer simulations conducted with the Storm Water Management Model for a climate change scenario for northern Sweden. The simulation results showed that TSS event loads depended mainly on rainfall depth and intensity, but not on antecedent conditions. Storms with low‐to‐intermediate depths and intensities showed the highest sensitivity to changes in rainfall input, both for percentage and absolute changes in TSS wash‐off loads, which was explained by the contribution of pervious areas and supply limitations. This has significant implications for stormwater management, because those relatively frequent events generally carry a high percentage of the annual pollutant load. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological and sediment yield response to summer rainfall in a small high Arctic watershed

In cold regions, the response and related antecedent mechanisms that produce flood flows from rainfall events have received limited study. In 2007, a small watershed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, Nunavut, was studied in detail during the melt season. Two rainfall events on June 30 and July 22, totalling 9·2 and 10·8 mm, respectively, represented significant contributions to seasonal discharge and sediment transport in a year with a low winter snowpack. The precipitation events elevated discharge and suspended sediment concentrations to twice the magnitude of the nival melt, and generated the only measurable downstream lacustrine turbidity current of the season. In two days, rainfall runoff transported 35% of the seasonal suspended sediment load, in contrast to 29% transported over the nival freshet. The magnitude and intensity of the rain events were not unusual in this setting, but the rainfall response was substantial in comparison with equivalent past events. Exceptional temperatures of July 2007 generated early, deep permafrost thaw, and ground ice melt. The resultant increase in soil moisture amplified the subsequent rainfall runoff and sediment transport response. These results demonstrate the importance of antecedent moisture conditions and the role of permafrost active layer development as an important factor in the rainfall runoff and sediment transport response to precipitation events. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of climate change effects on the runoff regime of a forested catchment in northern Iran

ABSTRACT

The southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 global circulation models, and meteorological and hydrometrical data from the Casilian (or “Kassilian”) Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of drought. Flash floods arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Assessment of rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling: A case study in the Brue catchment,UK

This study explores rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling. A novel assessment scheme integrated with coefficient of variance and Moran's I is introduced to describe effective rainfall spatial variability. Coefficient of variance is widely accepted to identify rainfall variability through rainfall intensity, whereas Moran's I reflects rainfall spatial autocorrelation. This new assessment framework combines these two indicators to assess the spatial variability derived from both rainfall intensity and distribution, which are crucial in determining the time and magnitude of runoff generation. Four model structures embedded in the Variable Infiltration Capacity model are adopted for hydrological modelling in the Brue catchment of England. The models are assigned with 1, 3, 8, and 27 hydrological response units, respectively, and diverse rainfall spatial information for 236 events are extracted from 1995. This study investigates the model performance of different partitioning based on rainfall spatial variability through peak volume (Q_p) and time to peak (T_p), along with the rainfall event process. The results show that models associated with dense spatial partitioning are broadly capable of capturing more spatial information with better performance. It is unnecessary to utilize models with high spatial density for simple rainfall events, though they show distinct advantages on complex events. With additional spatial information, Q_p experiences a notable improvement over T_p. Moreover, seasonal patterns signified by the assessment scheme imply the feasibility of seasonal models.     

Storm runoff processes and subcatchment characteristics in a new zealand hill country catchment

The quickflow responses of six subcatchment areas in a small hill country catchment in the Craigieburn Range, South Island, New Zealand, were compared for a range of storm sizes, rainfall intensities and antecedent wetness conditions. Topography and soil characteristics suggested that all subcatchments would receive subsurface stormflow input, but that some would receive larger saturation overland flow inputs than others. Quickflow yields and response ratios were positively correlated with storm size and antecedent wetness conditions in the subcatchment most suited to producing saturation overland flow. In subcatchments more likely to be dominated by subsurface flow, quickflow yields and response ratios were positively correlated with storm size, but were either not correlated, or negatively correlated, with antecedent wetness. Quickflow responses were either not significantly or negatively correlated with rainfall intensity variables. Quickflow from the subcatchment most suited to produce saturation overland flow providing an increasing proportion of total catchment quickflow in larger storms and as antecedent conditions became wetter. Subcatchment responses varied greatly in space and time and there was less pattern to the variation than had been expected. Where topographic and pedologic conditions permit substantial responses to storm rainfall by both saturation overland flow and subsurface stormflow, simple topographic and soil indicators may not be useful guides to the relative importance of runoff mechanisms, or to the identification of runoff-source areas.     

The effect of storm movement on infiltration,runoff and soil erosion in a semi-arid catchment

Rainfall characteristics are key factors influencing infiltration and runoff generation in catchment hydrology, particularly for arid and semiarid catchments. Although the effect of storm movement on rainfall-runoff processes has been evaluated and emphasized since the 1960s, the effect on the infiltration process has barely been considered. In this study, a physically based distributed hydrological model (InHM) was applied to a typical semi-arid catchment (Shejiagou, 4.26 km²) located in the Loess Plateau, China, to investigate the effect of storm movement on infiltration, runoff and soil erosion at the catchment scale. Simulations of 84 scenarios of storm movement were conducted, including storms moving across the catchment in both the upstream and downstream directions along the main channel, while in each direction considering four storm moving speeds, three rainfall depths and two storm ranges. The simulation results showed that, on both the hillslopes facing downstream (facing south) and in the main channel, the duration of the overland flow process under the upstream-moving storms was longer than that under the downstream-moving storms. Thus, the duration and volume of infiltration under upstream-moving storms were larger in these areas. For the Shejiagou catchment, as there are more hillslopes facing downstream, more infiltration occurred under the upstream-moving storms than the downstream-moving storms. Therefore, downstream-moving storms generated up to 69% larger total runoff and up to 351% more soil loss in the catchment than upstream-moving storms. The difference in infiltration between the storms moving upstream and downstream decreased as the storm moving speed increased. The relative difference in total runoff and sediment yield between the storms moving upstream and downstream decreased with increasing rainfall depth and storm speed. The results of this study revealed that the infiltration differences under moving storms largely influenced the total runoff and sediment yield at the catchment scale, which is of importance in runoff prediction and flood management. The infiltration differences may be a potential factor leading to different groundwater, vegetation cover and ecology conditions for the different sides of the hillslopes.     

Correcting bias in rainfall inputs to a semi-distributed hydrological model using downstream flow simulation errors

The focus of this study is on bias correcting semi-distributed rainfall inputs into a hydrological model applied in the Okavango River basin in southern Africa, where there are very few local observations and heavy reliance is placed on global rainfall datasets. While the hydrological model, before rainfall bias correction, is able to represent the broad characteristics of the sub-basin streamflow responses, as demonstrated by good agreement between observed and simulated flow duration curves, there are many years where the annual volumes are over- or underestimated. The long records of observed flow at downstream stations are successfully used to bias correct the rainfall inputs to the upstream sub-basins using an analysis of their individual contributions to downstream flow and their annual rainfall–runoff response ratios. The results show improved simulations for the relatively shorter observation periods at the upstream gauging stations.     

Trends in rainfall and runoff in the Blue Nile Basin: 1964–2003

Most of the water from the Nile originates in Ethiopia but there is no agreement on how land degradation or climate change affects the future flow in downstream countries. The objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of future conditions by analysing historical trends. During the period 1964–2003, the average monthly basin‐wide precipitation and monthly discharge data were collected and analysed statistically for two stations in the upper 30% of the Blue Nile Basin and monthly and 10‐day discharge data of one station at the Sudan–Ethiopia border. A rainfall–runoff model examined the causes for observed trends. The results show that, while there was no significant trend in the seasonal and annual basin‐wide average rainfall, significant increases in discharge during the long rainy season (June to September) were observed at all three stations. In the upper Blue Nile, the short rainy season flow (March to May) increased, while the dry season flow (October to February) stayed the same. At the Sudan border, the dry season flow decreased significantly with no change in the short rainy season flow. The difference in response was likely due to the construction of weir in the 1990s at the Lake Tana outlet that affected the upper Blue Nile discharge significantly but affected less than 10% of the discharge at the Sudan border. The rainfall–runoff model reproduced the observed trends, assuming that an additional 10% of the hillsides were eroded in the 40‐year time span and generated overland flow instead of interflow and base flow. Models concerning future trends in the Nile cannot assume that the landscape runoff processes will remain static. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley,central Switzerland

When the observation of small headwater catchments in the pre-Alpine Alptal valley (central Switzerland) started in the late 1960s, the researchers were mainly interested in questions related to floods and forest management. Investigations of geomorphological processes in the steep torrent channels followed in the 1980s, along with detailed observations of biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in individual forest stands. More recently, research in the Alptal has addressed the impacts of climate change on water supply and runoff generation. In this article, we describe, for the first time, the evolution of catchment research at Alptal, and present new analyses of long-term trends and short-term hydrologic behaviour. Hydrometeorological time series from the past 50 years show substantial interannual variability, but only minimal long-term trends, except for the ~2°C increase in mean annual air temperature over the 50-year period, and a corresponding shift towards earlier snowmelt. Similar to previous studies in larger Alpine catchments, the decadal variations in mean annual runoff in Alptal's small research catchments reflect the long-term variability in annual precipitation. In the Alptal valley, the most evident hydrological trends were observed in late spring and are related to the substantial change in the duration of the snow cover. Streamflow and water quality are highly variable within and between hydrological events, suggesting rapid shifts in flow pathways and mixing, as well as changing connectivity of runoff-generating areas. This overview illustrates how catchment research in the Alptal has evolved in response to changing societal concerns and emerging scientific questions.     

Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India

Seasonal and annual trends of changes in rainfall, rainy days, heaviest rain and relative humidity have been studied over the last century for nine different river basins in northwest and central India. The majority of river basins have shown increasing trends both in annual rainfall and relative humidity. The magnitude of increased rainfall for considered river basins varied from 2–19% of mean per 100 years. The maximum increase in rainfall is observed in the Indus (lower) followed by the Tapi river basin. Seasonal analysis shows maximum increase in rainfall in the post‐monsoon season followed by the pre‐monsoon season. There were least variations in the monsoon rainfall during the last century and winter rainfall has shown a decreasing trend. Most of the river basins have experienced decreasing trends in annual rainy days with a maximum decrease in the Mahanadi basin. The heaviest rain of the year has increased from 9–27 mm per 100 years over different river basins with a maximum of 27 mm for the Brahamani and Subaranrekha river basins. A combination of increase in heaviest rainfall and reduction in the number of rainy days suggest the possibility of increasing severity of floods. Such information is useful in the planning, development and management of water resources in the study area. Further, the majority of river basins have also experienced an increasing trend in relative humidity both on seasonal and annual scales. An increase in annual mean relative humidity for six river basins has been found in the range of 1–18% of mean per 100 years, while a decrease for three river basins from ? 1 to ? 13% of mean per 100 years was observed, providing a net increase in the study area by 2·4% of mean per 100 years. It is understood that an increase in areal extent of vegetation cover as well as rainfall over the last century has increased the moisture in the atmosphere through enhanced evapotranspiration, which in turn has increased the relative humidity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suitability of CLIGEN precipitation estimates based on an updated database and their impacts on urban runoff: a case study of the Great Lakes Region,USA

ABSTRACT

Weather generators rely on historical meteorological records to simulate time series of synthetic weather sequences, the quality of which has direct influence on model applications. The climate generator CLIGEN’s database has recently been updated to comprise consistent historical records from 1974 to 2013 (updated CLIGEN database, UCD) compared to the current database in which records are of different lengths. In this study, CLIGEN’s performance in estimating precipitation using UCD (eight stations) and the subsequent impact on urban runoff simulations (371 stations) were evaluated in the Great Lakes Region, USA. Generally, UCD-based precipitation could replicate observed daily precipitation up to the 99.5th percentile, but maximum precipitation was underestimated. Results from the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment model using UCD-based precipitation showed about 0.57 billion cubic meters more (14.9%) average annual runoff being simulated compared with simulations based on the current CLIGEN database. Overall, CLIGEN with the updated database was found suitable for providing precipitation estimates and for use with modeling urban runoff or urbanization effects.     

The effects of climate change and urbanization on the runoff of the Rock Creek basin in the Portland metropolitan area,Oregon, USA

Climate changes brought on by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to have a significant effect on the Pacific Northwest hydrology during the 21st century. Many climate model simulations project higher mean annual temperatures and temporal redistribution of precipitation. This is of particular concern for highly urbanized basins where runoff changes are more vulnerable to changes in climate. The Rock Creek basin, located in the Portland metropolitan area, has been experiencing rapid urban growth throughout the last 30 years, making it an ideal study area for assessing the effect of climate and land cover changes on runoff. A combination of climate change and land cover change scenarios for 2040 with the semi‐distributed AVSWAT (ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model was used to determine changes in mean runoff depths in the 2040s (2030–2059) from the baseline period (1973–2002) at the monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Statistically downscaled climate change simulation results from the ECHAM5 general circulation model (GCM) found that the region would experience an increase of 1·2 °C in the average annual temperature and a 2% increase in average annual precipitation from the baseline period. AVSWAT simulation shows a 2·7% increase in mean annual runoff but a 1·6% decrease in summer runoff. Projected climate change plus low‐density, sprawled urban development for 2040 produced the greatest change to mean annual runoff depth (+5·5%), while climate change plus higher‐density urban development for 2040 resulted in the smallest change (+5·2%), when compared with the climate and land cover of the baseline period. This has significant implications for water resource managers attempting to implement adaptive water resource policies to future changes resulting from climate and urbanization. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.