中国航空运输的时空格局演变与发展预测（英文）

This paper analyses the features and dynamic changes of the spatial layout of air transportation utilization among different provinces in China. It makes use of data for the airport throughput and socio-economic development of every province throughout the country in the years 2006 and 2015, and employs airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita and per unit of GDP as measures of regional air transportation utilization, which is significant for refining indicators of regional air transportation scale and comparing against them. It also analyzes the spatial differences of coupling between the regional air transportation utilization indicators and the key influencing factors on regional air transportation demand and utilization, which include per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density. Based on these key influencing factors, it establishes a multiple linear regression model to conduct forecasting of each province's future airport passenger and cargo throughput as well as throughput growth rates. The findings of the study are as follows:(1) Between 2006 and 2015, every province throughout the country showed a trend of year on year growth in their airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita. Throughput per capita grew fastest in Hebei, with a rise of 780%, and slowest in Beijing, with a rise of 38%. Throughput per capita was relatively high in western and southeastern coastal regions, and relatively low in northern and central regions. Airport passenger and cargo throughput per unit of GDP showed growth in provinces with relatively slow economic development, and showed negative growth in provinces with relatively rapid economic development. Throughput per unit of GDP grew fastest in Hebei, rising 265% between 2006 and 2015, and Hunan had the fastest negative growth, with a fall of 44% in the same period. Southwestern regions had relatively high throughput per unit of GDP, while in central, northern, and northeastern regions it was relatively low.(2) Strong correlation exists between airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita and per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density. Throughput per capita has positive correlation with per capita GDP and urbanization rate in all regions, and positive correlation with population density in most regions. Meanwhile, there is weak correlation between airport passenger and cargo throughput per unit of GDP and per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density, with positive correlation in some regions and negative correlation in others.(3) Between 2015 and 2025, it is estimated that all provinces experience a trend of rapid growth in their airport passenger and cargo throughput. Inner Mongolia and Hebei will see the fastest growth, rising221% and 155%, respectively, while Yunnan, Sichuan, and Hubei will see the slowest growth, with increases of 62%, 63%, and 65%, respectively.     

改革开放以来中国交通地理格局演变与规律（英文）

This paper reviews the process of transportation construction in China and investigates the developmental and spatial characteristics of transportation patterns. The principles of transportation evolution including stages, structures and orders are systematically analyzed. The investigation shows that China's transportation construction mode has upgraded from investment-driven scale expansion to quality improvement driven by efficiency and promotion. The rapid growth and development of transportation networks has significantly influenced economic and social activities in time and space. The resulting spatial convergence and dominance have improved distribution, promoting development of the socioeconomic structure. Regional development that has traditionally been based on corridors has changed into a networked mode centered on cities and metropolitan areas. The transportation pattern follows evolutionary principles. China has been moving from a hierarchical structure to a cascade structure. Simultaneously, the socioeconomic pattern has changed from an axis to a hub-and-spoke structure with a preliminary ordered network. As transportation networks grow, China's functional spatial structure and ordered network will gradually become stabilized and balanced.     

太湖流域粮食生产格局变化及影响机制研究

太湖流域是中国传统粮食高产区,其粮食生产演变对我国粮食安全意义重大。该文从宏观视角探讨了该区1985-2010年27个县域粮食生产的时空变化及其影响机制,结果表明:该区粮食产量波动较大,但总体呈下降趋势,历经波动发展-急剧减少-稳步增长三阶段,粮食总产变异系数和波动系数均超过全国平均水平,区域粮食安全风险较大;空间分布上高产区不断减少,低产区范围扩大,粮食生产重心移动与人口重心移动方向相反,粮食供需矛盾加大。耕地数量、质量、结构和方式等的变化是驱动粮食生产时空变化的重要机制,其中不同质量水平的耕地数量和耕地利用方式变化是影响粮食生产的重要因子。落实差别化耕地保护政策、避免耕地资源隐性流失、转变耕地利用方式等具有重要现实意义。     

近30年中国茶叶生产时空演变格局及其驱动力分析（英文）

As a daily necessity and an important cash crop in China and many other countries, tea has received increasing attention. Using production concentration index model and industry' s barycenter theory, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of tea production and barycenter movement trajectory of tea plantations and production in China between 1986 and 2015. Driving forces of the movement were also analyzed. From 1986 to 2000, tea production in China's Mainland of grew slowly(by 210×10~3 t). The continuous increase in tea yield per unit area was the primary contributor(more than 60%) to the growth in tea production during this period. Since China joined the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 2001, tea production has grown rapidly, by 1.59×10~6 t between 2001 and 2015. The increase in the tea plantations area is the main contributor. Over the last 30 years, the barycenters of tea production in China have moved westward from the Dongting Lake Plain to the eastern fringe of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Guizhou, Guangxi, and Sichuan in southwestern China have gradually become regions of new concentrated tea plantations and main tea production provinces. Lower cost of land and labor in southwestern China are the main drivers of the westward movement of China's tea industry. In addition, supportive policies and the favorable natural geographical environment contribute to the westward movement of tea industry. Our research highlights the spatio-temporal variation of China's tea production in the last three decades. The result indicates importance to make appropriate policies to promote the development of tea industry in China.     

北京城市副中心（通州区）土地利用演变格局与模拟（英文）

北京城市副中心（通州区）承接着北京中心城区的非首都核心功能,其快速建设发展亟需对区域内土地利用演变格局的科学认识。本文分析了改革开放40年来通州区土地利用演变格局,根据土地利用历史演变特征与城市发展规划目标,结合文旅发展驱动要素,运用FLUS模型模拟城镇化加速、减速和可持续发展3种情景下2035年北京城市副中心（通州区）土地利用空间分布格局。结果表明：（1）北京城市副中心（通州区）以城镇发展建设为主,1980—2010年高速城镇化阶段形成“沿六环顺运河”的城市扩张格局,2010—2020年低速城镇化阶段用地分布稳定,通州区形成从西北至东南城乡分异、土地集约化发展格局,副中心作为通州区城镇化的典型区域具有与通州整体相似的时空演变特征;（2）到2035年,3种情景间土地利用变化幅度和空间分布存在显著差异,城镇可持续发展情景下生态用地面积与分布最优,有利于实现城市可持续发展。在与三大副中心分区规划的契合程度分析中,可持续发展情景下预测模拟与市政府发布的《北京城市副中心控制性详细规划（街区层面）（2016—2035年）》（简称《规划》）用地高度契合,但文化旅游功能区和宜居生活风貌区中模拟预测与...     

优化配水视角下的中国粮食生产格局变化(英文)

基于因素分解模型,追溯不同流域区粮食生产变化的贡献来源,探讨水资源约束下的粮食生产格局变化及其优化思路。研究发现,1995-2010年,北方贫水区粮食增产明显,以松辽河区和淮河区最为显著,前者主要通过扩大复种增产,后者则主要依靠单产促产。虽然北方普遍有扩玉米的粮食品种调整现象,但由于粮食增产对扩大灌溉、调增耕地复种指数的依赖,农业用水除滦海河区和黄河区稳中有降,其它北方产区仍居高不下。同期,雨水充沛的东南沿海地区,粮食减产明显,且减产主要来自水稻面积的强烈收缩,农业用水亦减量明显。最后基于优化配水的视角,探讨了粮食可持续增产策略。     

中国海外粮食合作空间格局研究（英文）

进一步利用国际农产品市场、世界农业资源和拓展对外农业合作潜在空间,是保障新时期中国粮食安全和优化国内粮食消费结构的有效路径。本研究基于分国别潜在耕地和粮食自给率的估算,并结合上述两个指标对中国海外粮食合作国家进行分类,从而初步刻画其空间格局。结果显示,中国的粮食进口目标空间主要位于澳大利亚、北美、南美、东欧和中亚;中国粮食企业"走出去"的目标空间重点应在撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲的北部区域。研究提出,在维持好与美国、加拿大、巴西、阿根廷和澳大利亚等传统粮食贸易关系的同时,中国可以面向"一带一路"沿线国家拓展粮食合作空间:可加大从俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰等东欧中亚国家的粮食进口量,粮食企业"走出去"的重点方向可以是撒哈拉以南非洲。     

中国地质灾害伤亡事件的空间格局及影响因素（英文）

Analysis of casualties due to landslides from 2000 to 2012 revealed that their spatial pattern was affected by terrain and other natural environmental factors, which resulted in a higher distribution of landslide casualty events in southern China than in northern China. Hotspots of landslide-generated casualties were in the western Sichuan mountainous area and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau region, southeast hilly area, northern part of the loess hilly area, and Tianshan and Qilian Mountains. However, local distribution patterns indicated that landslide casualty events were also influenced by economic activity factors. To quantitatively analyse the influence of natural environment and human-economic activity factors, the Probability Model for Landslide Casualty Events in China(LCEC) was built based on logistic regression analysis. The results showed that relative relief, GDP growth rate, mean annual precipitation, fault zones, and population density were positively correlated with casualties caused by landslides. Notably, GDP growth rate ranked only second to relative relief as the primary factors in the probability of casualties due to landslides. The occurrence probability of a landslide casualty event increased 2.706 times with a GDP growth rate increase of 2.72%. In contrast, vegetation coverage was negatively correlated with casualties caused by landslides. The LCEC model was then applied to calculate the occurrence probability of landslide casualty events for each county in China. The results showed that there are 27 counties with high occurrence probability but zero casualty events. The 27 counties were divided into three categories: poverty-stricken counties, mineral-rich counties, and real-estate overexploited counties; these are key areas that should be emphasized in reducing landslide risk.     

中国东北松嫩平原20世纪耕地重建及时空格局变化（英文）

We initially estimated the cropland area at county level using local historical documents for the Songnen Plain(SNP)in the 1910s and 1930s.We then allocated this cropland area to grid cells with a size of 1 km×1 km,using a range of cultivation possibilities from high to low;this was based on topography and minimum distances to rivers,settlements,and traffic lines.Cropland areas for the 1950s were obtained from the Land Use Map of Northeast China,and map vectorization was performed with Arc GIS technology.Cropland areas for the1970s,1980s,1990s,2000s,and 2010s were retrieved from Landsat images.We found that the cropland areas were 4.92×104 km~2 and 7.60×10~4 km~2,accounting for 22.8%and 35.2% of the total area of the SNP in the 1910s and 1930s,respectively,which increased to 13.14×10~4 km~2,accounting for 60.9%in the 2010s.The cropland increased at a rate of 1.18×10~4km~2 per decade from the 1910s to 1970s while it was merely 0.285×10~4 km~2 per decade from the 1970s to 2010s.From the 1910s to 1930s,new cultivation mainly occurred in the central SNP while,from the 1930s to 1970s,it was mainly over the western and northern parts.This spatially explicit reconstruction could be offered as primary data for studying the effects of changes in human-induced land cover based on climate change over the last century.     

基于投入产出技术的全球生产网络时空格局演变及驱动因素分析（英文）

Global production networks have become the most important organizational platforms for coordinating international production activities, and their evolution patterns profoundly affect value distribution across the world. In this study, we shall firstly carry out an in-depth quantitative research to analyze the patterns and evolution of global production networks, using a long time-sequenced multi-region input-output table and the network analysis approach. Then based on the method of value-added decomposition, we will develop an index system to measure the degree of participation of regions in global production networks. Finally, we will try to identify the factors affecting the degree of participation of countries in global production networks by constructing a regression model. The results show that from 1995 to 2015, the evolution of global production networks measured by input-output linkages experienced four stages: expansion, contraction, re-expansion, and re-contraction. In addition, the core communities of global production networks evolved from two major production communities(Europe and the Americas) to three pillars(Europe, Americas, and Asia) while more segmented communities are mainly affected by geographical proximity. The latter consists of European, North American, South American, African and Asian communities. The evolution of the global production network pattern primarily manifests as a process of cooperation strengthening or weakening among communities, based on changes in the external environment and the need for individual development strategies. Meanwhile, the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom have consistently ranked among the top entities in global production networks, whereas China, Russia, and Southeast Asia have the fastest rises in ranking. In addition, government efficiency, resources endowment, infrastructure conditions and technology levels play important roles in the participation in global production networks.     

河南省县域粮食生产格局变化及其影响因素

基于126个县城的统计数据,运用探索性空间分析技术等方法,揭示1980-2010年河南省县域粮食生产的格局演化特征及其影响因素.结果表明:①2010年河南省粮食总产量达到5 437.1×104 t,县域粮食生产以上升为主并逐步向产粮大县和平原区集中;②县域粮食生产具有明显的正相关,局域范围内的空间相关性强烈,粮食生产显著高高集聚类型区在以周口为中心的黄淮平原区聚集,显著低低集聚类型区主要分布在豫西山地丘陵区,且研究期内高高集聚、低低集聚的能力不断增强;③31年间河南省粮食生产重心向东南方向偏移了26.07 km,县域粮食生产“东高西低”的经向差异更加明显;④不同时期,粮食产量空间格局的影响因素存在显著差异,随着时间的推移,耕地面积、上一期粮食产量、复种指数等的影响显著提高.     

基于模型的中国东北地区土地利用时空格局变化研究（英文）

Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to analyze the spatio-temporal land use changes in a hot-spot in Northeast China(NEC). In total,13 driving factors were selected to statistically analyze the spatial relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors and individual land use types. These relationships were then used to simulate land use dynamic changes during 1980–2010 at a 1 km spatial resolution,and to capture the overall land use change patterns. The obtained results indicate that increases in cropland area in NEC were mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain during 1980–2000,with a small reduction between 2000 and 2010. An opposite pattern was identified for changes in forest areas. Forest decreases were mainly distributed in the Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains between 1980 and 2000,with a slight increase during 2000–2010. The urban areas have expanded to occupy surrounding croplands and grasslands,particularly after the year 2000. More attention is needed on the newly gained croplands,which have largely replaced wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain over the last decade. Land use change patterns identified here should be considered in future policy making so as to strengthen local eco-environmental security.     

从中国总膳食研究视角看待食品安全问题的变化（英文）

本文讨论了我们所知道的一些在中国的主要食品安全风险,如何有效发挥中国总膳食研究(TDS)的作用作为食品安全监测以及风险评估优先选择工具。文章同时比较了食品领域其他两个主要监测项目(中国营养与健康监测项目和污染物监测网)的优势以及不足。本文的结论是,尽管有其不足之处,TDS提供了最可靠的有害膳食摄入的信息来源,并通过对铅、镉以及农药残留的分析来说明这一点。     

中国城市化与经济发展关系的省际格局（英文）

Understanding the relationship between China's urbanization and economic development on a provincial scale is of profound theoretical and practical significance.Based on data from 124 countries or regions throughout the world and 31 provinces or autonomous regions in China,applying improved methods using the quadrant map approach,this paper analyzed the spatial pattern of the relationship between China's urbanization and economic development level.The study identified the following results.(1) The 31 province-level regions fall into six categories:only one region is in the category of sharp over-urbanization,3 regions are in medium over-urbanization,11 slight over-urbanization,8 basic coordination,one medium under-urbanization,and seven slight under-urbanization.(2) There are significant regional differences on a provincial scale in the relationships between urbanization and the level of economic development.(3) The provincial pattern of urbanization and economic development is significantly different between east and west.The eastern coastal areas are mainly over-urbanized,while the central and western regions are mainly under-urbanized.(4) The relationship between urbanization and the level of economic development is similar to the Matthew effect.Hence,two important insights are proposed.First,the phenomenon of over-urbanization in some developed regions should be viewed with some concern and vigilance.Second,urbanization needs to be speeded up moderately in the central and western regions.     

中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及东北商品粮基地的响应

依据近10年的统计数据和实地调研资料,运用区域差异分析方法,对中国粮食生产的区域格局变化特征及其规律进行探讨,研究表明:中国粮食产量总体呈增长态势,年均增长率为3.43%;粮食生产重心进一步由南方向北方和由东部向中部推移,北方和中部地区成为新的增长中心;粮食生产地域变化的差异明显,南北绝对差异和相对差异变化较大,八大产区和省区间变化较小。农业生产条件、技术、宏观经济环境和土地利用方式变化是粮食生产地域格局变化的主要原因。东北作为国家粮食安全战略性基地,应对全国粮食生产的地域变化趋势,必须加强商品粮基地建设。通过农业生态环境建设、农业结构调整、商品粮基地空间布局优化等举措,促进粮食生产,保障国家粮食安全。     

“一带一路”生态系统服务消耗格局与演变（英文）

生态系统服务消耗研究对于生态系统保护与可持续发展具有重要意义,已成为生态学研究的热点。本研究基于FAOSTAT数据,以生物量消耗为主要指标,动态研究"一带一路"沿线全域及分区生态消耗格局、构成及其演变规律,揭示该区域生态消耗模式主要类型、分布格局与演变态势。得出以下结论:(1)全域生态消耗主要来自农田消耗,其次为草地消耗;生态消耗整体呈波动增加,消耗总量从2000年的12911.89Tg增加到2016年的16810.00Tg,年人均消耗量从2000年的332.28万g增加到2016年的363.92万g。(2)生态消耗及其变化在国家间、分区间及生态系统类型间差异显著,人均生态消耗以蒙古国最高,分区尺度以中东欧最高,东南亚最低,这是区域资源禀赋、生态消耗模式及生活水平等共同作用的结果。(3)农田消耗为主是该区域主导生态消耗模式,约占总面积的76.71%,其次为农草消耗,约占总面积的19.0%,仅少数国家为草地消耗为主、森林消耗为主或农林草消耗并重,这可能与该区域人口密度大且多为发展中国家有关。因此该区域在依据自身资源优势发展农林牧产业时,应扩大贸易,互惠共赢,优化生态消耗模式,促进区域社会、经济与生态可持续发展。     

淮海经济区生态系统服务价值演变与安全格局优化（英文）

土地利用变化引起的生态环境效应受到全球关注。作为淮河生态经济带核心组成的淮海经济区,其土地利用、生态安全与区域经济发展发生着互馈演变。基于Google Earth Engine (GEE)提取多期土地利用数据,借助生态系统服务价值（ESV）评估以及最小累计阻力模型（MCR）,探讨了1998–2018年淮海经济区的ESV演变的时空分异特征,优化了区域生态安全格局（ESP）。研究表明：ESV强度存在明显的空间分异,呈东北高、西南低的特征。中值ESV区面积比重最大,高、低值ESV区的占比较小。ESV呈现等级下降与升高并存的时空分异特征。从发展时段看,ESV等级变化呈现向好趋势。生态安全格局优化中,优化识别重要生态源地26个,主要景观生态廊道22条、生态战略节点65个,中水平生态安全区占比最大。ESV和ESP发生变化的主要原因与当地自然资源的变化和政府保护政策的改变与调整密切相关。研究结果可为跨省区的国土空间保护、制定可持续发展战略提供参考。     

江苏省粮食生产地域格局变化研究

综合应用变异系数、地理联系率、区位熵等区域差异分析方法对江苏省1980年以来地级市尺度的粮食生产和经济发展地域格局变化特征进行了联动分析.研究发现:江苏省粮食生产经历了一个"上升一平稳一下降"的波动过程:地域差异增大,尤其是1995年后,粮食生产与经济发展、人口分布发生明显的空间分异;长江以北地区,特别是苏北地区在全省粮食生产地域分工过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色,日益成为江苏省粮食生产核心区域.最后,结合耗散结构理论,分析了江苏省粮食生产地域格局变化的驱动因素,并提出了相关建议.     

中国耕地利用变化驱动下的粮食生产:安全格局分析(英文)

自从1978年改革开放以来,随着经济的迅速发展,中国的耕地利用格局发生了很大的变化。耕地数量和质量的变化直接导致粮食生产的变动。本文利用来自政府部门的农业统计数据,分析了1978-2004年间中国耕地利用水平的时空动态格局,并通过构建"粮耕弹性系数"来反映耕地利用变化与粮食生产的互动关系。研究结果表明:耕地投入的增加和质量的提升在一定程度上缓解了1978年以来我国耕地资源严重流失给粮食生产安全带来的压力;自改革开放以来,中国耕地利用水平呈现由经济快速发展带来的普遍性提升局面,并随着经济发展程度由东南沿海向内陆递减,耕地利用水平的提升速率也呈现由东南沿海向内陆梯级递减态势。然而,耕地集约利用程度的不断提升,并不一定会带来粮食产量的持续稳定增长。耕地集约利用增长的边际效用递减特性,使得中国粮食生产安全的保障已逐步由耕地集约利用水平的提升转向了耕地面积的保护,由此导致耕地资源的数量成为了左右粮食生产安全的关键,这也为当今中国制定严格的耕地保护目标和战略提供了现实的科学依据。     

中国省际人口迁移格局演变及其对城镇化发展的影响

基于2000年和2010年人口普查数据,利用多种指标和方法研究了中国省际人口迁移的格局演变及其对城镇化的影响。研究发现：省际迁入和迁出人口在空间分布上均呈分散化态势,迁入迁出重心均向北向东偏移,迁入地由广东省“一枝独秀”向多极化演变,安徽、四川、河南、湖南成为新的四大迁出地。利用净迁移流构建的省际人口迁移网络,表现出紧凑化和均衡化趋势;迁移流仍然是从中西部地区指向东部地区,但新增加迁移流集中指向长三角、京津以及福建。综合考虑省际人口迁移强度和方向,可将全国31个地区划分为净流入型活跃区、平衡型活跃区、净流出型活跃区以及非活跃区四种类型。省际迁移改变了迁入地和迁出地的城乡人口结构,通过不同模式促进了城镇化率的提高和省际差异的缩小,对2000-2010年全国城镇化率增加的贡献占到了18.13%。