1998～2000年狮子座流星雨的预报和观测

“1998年狮子座流星雨可能是暴雨，最佳观测地在东亚”的预报，客观上加速了中国对流星雨的现代研究。几年来，对狮子座流星雨的观测和研究，是在全国狮子座流星雨联测小组的组织和领导下发展起来的。这包括使用目视方法、照相方法和无线电方法的观测，以及组织广大天文爱好者在全国范围内的观测。我们的确也观测到了很多重要的现象，如流星雨的纤维结构、尺度分布和质量密度分布的变化等等。我们发展了数据处理方法，将处理其它天文观测数据的“时间窗”方法移植到了流星雨的数据处理中。这一方法如今在流星雨研究中已经在世界上普遍使用了。我们还提出了流星雨的质量流参量ZHMR，它对于今后流星雨的观测比较和预报可能更加有用。在雷达观测方面，我们观测到了1998年所期待的流星雨强度主峰。在此主峰过了大约18h之后，又观测到了地球电离层的反常爆发。从1998年连续两天狮子座流星雨不同的表现，以及从全国不同地区的观测得到的流星质量分布系数的差异，我们提出了大、小2种不同粒子的混合流模型，很好地解释了观测到的现象。从天体力学的基本公式出发，我们发现流星群轨道升交点和其母彗星轨道升交点之差，不仅与当时的抛射速度，而且与彗星抛出这些尘埃粒子时在轨道上的位置有关。对于1998年的观测，最可能的是这些粒子是彗星在1933年回归的时候、在距离太阳1．44A．U．距离的时候抛射出来的。按照传统的统计图分析方法，我们还对1999—2001年的狮子座流星雨强度进行了预报。事实证明，我们对1999和2000年的预报的准确性还是很高的。此外，我们还在狮子座流星雨的照相观测、轨道计算以及其它方面做了一些工作，本文仪仅是对我们所做的一些主要工作进行了一个小结。     

1998～2000年狮子座流星雨的预报和观测

"1998年狮子座流星雨可能是暴雨,最佳观测地在东亚"的预报,客观上加速了中国对流星雨的现代研究。几年来,对狮子座流星雨的观测和研究,是在全国狮子座流星雨联测小组的组织和领导下发展起来的。这包括使用目视方法、照相方法和无线电方法的观测,以及组织广大天文爱好者在全国范围内的观测。我们的确也观测到了很多重要的现象,如流星雨的纤维结构、尺度分布和质量密度分布的变化等等。我们发展了数据处理方法,将处理其它天文观测数据的"时间窗"方法移植到了流星雨的数据处理中。这一方法如今在流星雨研究中已经在世界上普遍使用了。我们还提出了流星雨的质量流参量ZHMR,它对于今后流星雨的观测比较和预报可能更加有用。在雷达观测方面,我们观测到了1998年所期待的流星雨强度主峰。在此主峰过了大约18h之后,又观测到了地球电离层的反常爆发。从1998年连续两天狮子座流星雨不同的表现,以及从全国不同地区的观测得到的流星质量分布系数的差异,我们提出了大、小2种不同粒子的混合流模型,很好地解释了观测到的现象。从天体力学的基本公式出发,我们发现流星群轨道升交点和其母彗星轨道升交点之差,不仅与当时的抛射速度,而且与彗星抛出这些尘埃粒子时在轨道上的位置有关。对于1998年的观测,最可能的是这些粒子是     

近20年来狮子座流星雨预报进展

对近20年来狮子座流星雨的预报工作，进行了系统的阐述和分析。1998年Tempel-Tuttle彗星的回归，再度带来了狮子座流星雨的观测热，也大大促进了对狮子座流星雨预报工作的研究与验证。有的研究在时间预报准确度方面已显示出其模型的优越性，有的在流星雨的强度方面显示出一定的准确度。指出了两大类不同的方法实际上是在三维空间强调了不同的方面。将不同方法的优势结合起来，可能会使流星雨的预报更加成熟。     

1998年德令哈狮子座流星雨目视观测及初步分析

根据中国－荷兰狮子座流星雨合观测1998年11月13日至18是日在紫金山天文台德令哈观测站观测所得的数据，以及同期中国其他地方的观测数据，分析了1998年狮子座流星雨的分布特征，提出此次地球所遭遇的流星群带呈3层结构。     

2009年狮子座流星雨前瞻

在2008年狮子座流星雨出现意想不到的爆发之后,科学家们纷纷上调了对2009年狮子座流星雨的预测规模。在消隐了7年之后,狮子座流星雨是不是又要有大活动了呢？我就不在这里卖关子啦,先天门见山地给出各科学家的预报结果：     

狮子座流星雨1999年照相观测的分析

对1999年11月19日拍摄的两张狮子座流星胶片进行了分析研究照相观测比目观测记录了更多的定量信息计算了流星在胶片上显露时必须满足的运动角速度条件,求出了流星起始点仰角、流星结束点与辐射点的角距离、流星运动的角速度以及流星路径的弧长等并且得出流星在大气中的烧蚀时间仅0 65秒左右,即烧蚀的路径长约40 50公里通过在扫描仪上得到的黑白图像的处理,求得两颗流星的照相星等分别为-10.3 ± 0.2和-4.8±0.2.由此可以得到它们的质量和电子线密度.给出的处理方法,也可用于其他流星的照相观测资料处理.并且,对流星观测使用的照相镜头也进行了讨论.     

1998—1999年国际狮子座流星雨观测研究评述

1998－1999年的狮子座流星雨观测研究取得了十分丰富的成果，概要介绍了在此期间目视观测，雷达观测，航空观测，气球观测，卫星安全检测星撞击月球和月球钠尾观测方面取得的成果和进展。     

2009年狮子座流星雨结果简报

在2001年前后狮王怒吼以后,有科学家预报指出,在接下来的两个33年周期里（即2033年前后和2066年前后）,狮子座流星雨将不会有大的作为,下一次大爆发很可能要等到2099年前后去了。这基本宣告了所有现在活着的人恐怕再也看不到狮子座流星雨的爆发了。虽然,目前对流星雨的预报还很不准确,尤其是对于较长时间以后的预报,但是,人们还是不由得担心起来,是不是真的在有生之年再也看不到流星暴雨了？     

从中国目视资料分析1998年狮子座流星雨

本文分析了１９９８ 年狮子座流星雨的一部分中国目视资料。资料启示：１９９８ 年狮子座流星雨来自两股不同组成的流星体颗粒的不均匀混合流。按照这种观点进行了以这些目视资料为基础的计算,从而解释了目视观测与雷达观测所得结果之间的矛盾。     

海尔—波普彗星的位置与我们的观测策略

根据星历表，本文绘出运行轨道图，分析了百武彗星与海尔－波普彗星的不同，讨论了对后者观测应当考虑的一些问题。     

PREDICTING MARTIAN AND VENUSIAN METEOR SHOWER ACTIVITY

Based on the number of planet-approaching cometary orbits at Mars and Venus relative to the Earth, there should be ample opportunities for observing meteor activity at those two planets. The ratio of planet-approaching Jupiter family comets (JFCs) at Mars, Earth, and Venus is 4:2:1 indicating that JFC-related outbursts would be more frequent at Mars than the Earth. The relative numbers of planet-approaching Halley-type comets (HTCs) implies that the respective levels of annual meteor activity at those three planets are similar. We identify several instances where near-comet outbursts (Jenniskens, P.: 1995, Astron. Astrophys. 295, 206–235) may occur. A possible double outburst of this type at Venus related to 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Padjusakova may be observable by the ESA Venus Express spacecraft in the summer of 2006. Similarly, the Japanese Planet-C Venus orbiter may observe an outburst related to 27P/Crommelin’s perihelion passage in July 2011. Several additional opportunities exist to observe such outbursts at Mars from 2019 to 2026 associated with comets 38P/Stephan-Oterma, 13P/Olbers and 114P/Wiseman-Skiff.     

VIDEO AND PHOTOGRAPHIC SPECTROSCOPY OF 1998 AND 2001 LEONID PERSISTENT TRAINS FROM 300 TO 930 nm

Spectra of persistent meteor trains were observed at wavelength between 300 and 930 nm. Two obtained train spectra during the 1998 and 2001 Leonid meteor showers are reported here. During the 1998 Leonids, one train was detected by a photographic camera with a spectrograph covering 370–640 nm region. On the other hand, during the 2001 Leonids, video observations were carried out using image intensified cameras in ultraviolet (UV), visible and near infrared (near-IR) wavelengths. Temperatures in persistent trains have been measured by atmospheric O₂ A(0,1) band at the wavelength near 864.5 nm. From a video spectrum obtained just 7 s after parent fireball’s flare, a rotational temperature of 250 K at altitude of 88.0±0.5 km was estimated. We can say that the cooling time scale of train strongly depends on the initial mass of its fireball at least for Leonids. Based on cooling constant calculated from our results, we estimated a temperature of ∼ ∼130 K as a final exothermic temperature at early stage of persistent trains.     

ARE ASTEROID 2003 EH1 AND COMET C/1490 Y1 DYNAMICALLY RELATED?

The orbit of asteroid 2003 EH1 is very similar to the mean orbit of the Quadrantid meteoroid stream so that a close relationship between the two is very likely. It has already been suggested that Comet C/1490 Y1 could be the parent of the Quadrantids. If this is the case, then some relationship between the comet and the asteroid might be expected. The orbit of C/1490 Y1 is based on a short observing arc of about 6 weeks and all the observations were with the naked eye, so that its elements are very poorly determined. Hence, forward integration to determine whether asteroid 2003 EH1 represents the re-discovery of the dormant nucleus of C/1490 Y1 is not feasible. Instead we choose to integrate back in time the orbit of 2003 EH1, which is far better determined, and a family of 3500 clones, all of which are moving on an orbit that is consistent with the present known orbit of 2003EH1. We compare the results primarily with the recorded observations of the comet rather than the orbit of the comet derived by Hasegawa. We find that one clone is consistent with these observations.     

The IAU Meteor Shower Nomenclature Rules

The International Astronomical Union at its 2006 General Assembly in Prague has adopted a set of rules for meteor shower nomenclature, a working list with designated names (with IAU numbers and three-letter codes), and established a Task Group for Meteor Shower Nomenclature in Commission 22 (Meteors and Interplanetary Dust) to help define which meteor showers exist from well defined groups of meteoroids from a single parent body.     

ON THE FUTURE PROSPECTS OF METEOR DETECTIONS (INVITED REVIEW)

The successful application of modern observing techniques for Leonid storm observations show that meteor (shower) detections will have a bright future if the field will pursue difficult but important questions. How to forecast a satellite threatening meteor storm? What happens to the organic matter in meteors and can this be an important source of prebiotic molecules? What range of variations in composition and morphology exists among cometary grains and what does this tell us about the origin of the solar system? What long-period comets approach Earth orbit and can meteoroid streams provide early warning for giant impacts? What are the sources of interstellar and interplanetary grains? Just to mention a few. To answer these questions will need new technologies and facilities, some of which are being developed for other use. This may include NASA’s Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared and sub-millimeter Astronomy (SOFIA). In addition, big-science space missions can drive the field if meteor detections are an integral part. Special events, such as meteor outbursts and the “artificial meteor” from the reentry of sample return capsules from interplanetary space, can mobilize observing and theoretical efforts. These and other future opportunities are briefly discussed.     

DYNAMICAL RELATION OF METEORIDS TO COMETS AND ASTEROIDS

We tested four criteria used for discrimination between asteroidal and cometary type of orbits: Whipple criterion K, Kresak criterion Pe, Tisserand invariant T and aphelion distance Q. To estimate their reliability, all criteria were applied to classify the 2225 orbits of NEAs and 582 orbits of comets, for several epochs spanning the time interval of 40 thousands years. The Q-criterion produced the smallest number of exceptions and has shown the best stability. The biggest number of exceptions and the biggest variations are obtained for the K-criterion. We applied the Q-criterion to classify meteor orbits from the IAU Meteor Data Center and the video meteor orbits available on the Web sites. Among the sporadic radar orbits, as well as among the mean orbits of meteor streams a strong preponderance of asteroid-type orbits was observed. In case of the photographic and video meteors a weak preponderance of cometary and asteroidal orbits was found, respectively.     

Meteor Streams and Comets

Recent progress on the interrelation between meteor streams and comets is reviewed both on dynamical and physical aspects. The topics include the recent concept of the structure of meteor streams, resulted success of the prediction of the meteor storms, and the recent observational situation on the cometary dust grains and meteoroids. Two possible explanations for the origin of the meteoroids together with the implication for the relation between the birthplace of the parent comets and the meteoroids are discussed.     

古代彗星的证认与年代学

以《淮南子·兵略训》载武王伐纣时所见彗星为例,从统计和动力学的角度讨论了根据古代彗星记录确定遥远历史年代的可能性．分析表明,这种可能性在０ ．６ ％ 以下．因此可得出结论,在彗星记录过于简单的情况下,无法以之确定年代,即使作为旁证,其权重也是非常小的,在用其他方法确定年代时,可忽略其影响．