Assembly processes in upper subtidal macroalgae: The effect of wave exposure

The structure and diversity of sixteen macroalgal assemblages originating from two coastal locations in the Northern (Kavala gulf) and Central (Maliakos gulf) Aegean in Greece were explored by examining their relative abundance distributions (RADs) and fitting five stochastic niche-based models. A mechanistic interpretation of the underpinning assembly processes was attempted by relating the assumptions of the fitted models with available abiotic data corresponding to each assemblage. The random fraction niche-based model, assuming a random niche apportionment to species, was fitted to the majority of Maliakos assemblages characterized by more evenly distributed and speciose RADs, whereas the random assortment model, assuming no relationship among species abundance and niche size, was fitted to most of the Kavala assemblages characterized by steeper RADs with fewer species. Among the possible underlying mechanisms, wave exposure seems to play a key role in macroalgal assembly processes; however factors such as biogeography and hard substrate availability must be also taken into consideration. Short-term processes as changes in resource availability (nutrients and light), known as drivers of assembly rules in other primary producers (e.g. phytoplankton), do not considerably affect macroalgae in the oligotrophic Eastern Mediterranean, possibly due to their longer life spans.     

Consistency of Geoid Models,Radar Altimetry,and Hydrodynamic Modelling in the North Sea

Radar altimetry, when corrected for tides, atmospheric forcing of the sea surface, and the effects of density variations and mean and time-variable currents, provides an along-track realization of the marine geoid. In this study we investigate whether and how such an ‘altimetric-hydrodynamic’ geoid over the North Sea can serve for validating satellite-gravimetric geoids. Our results indicate that, using ERS-2 and ENVISAT along-track altimetry and water levels from the high-resolution operational circulation model BSHcmod, we do find distinct differences in RMS fits for various state-of-the art satellite-only models (beyond degree 145 for GRACE-only, and beyond degree 185 for GOCE models) and for combined geoid models, very similar as seen in GPS-levelling validations over land areas. We find that, at spectral resolution of up to about 200, an RMS fit as low as about 7 cm can be obtained for the most recent GOCE-derived models such as GOCO05S. This is slightly above what we expect from budgeting individual errors. Key to the validation is a proper treatment of the spectral mismatch between satellite-gravimetric and altimetric-hydrodynamic geoids. Comparison of data fits and error budget suggests that geoid truncation errors residual to EGM2008 (i.e. EGM2008 commission and omission error) may amount up to few cm.     

Forecasting ocean wave energy: The ECMWF wave model and time series methods

Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually.     

Modelling the time course of shade,temperature, and wood recovery in streams with riparian forest restoration

Action is increasingly being taken in New Zealand and elsewhere to restore ecological function to streams through planting of riparian zones. We used simulation modelling to explore the relative performance of three strategies to restore the riparian zone of a pastoral stream to native forest by: (1) passive regeneration; (2) planting then abandonment of a Pinus radiata plantation; and (3) active restoration by planting selected native trees. We linked the forest model LINKNZ with a shade and temperature model (sWAIORA), and a wood model (OSU_STREAMWOOD) to simulate recovery trajectories for key forest stream attributes in hypothetical streams (1.3–14.0 m channel width) in the central North Island, New Zealand. Both active restoration strategies outperformed passive regeneration in shade, temperature and stream wood volume for most of the simulation time (800 years). Although the abandoned pine plantation provided greatest shade initially (<100 years), active native planting provided the greatest benefits overall. In general, recovery of stream shade (and temperature) is expected within decades, is accelerated by deliberate planting, and is fastest in small streams in which thermal stress from sunlight exposure is greatest. However, full recovery of stream and riparian function may take centuries, being dependent on large trees providing wood to structure the channel.     

NPZ Models of Plankton Dynamics: Their Construction, Coupling to Physics, and Application

Nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ) models have been in use in oceanography for at least three decades, and are still a common research tool. Given the discoveries of the last two decades, particularly concerning the role of bacteria in the plankton, there are questions as to whether NPZ models can still be supported as a useful tool in planktonic research. Here I review the construction of NPZ models, and some of the physical platforms they have been coupled to. I then discuss the applications of NPZ-physical models, and conclude that they still constitute an important and viable research tool, provided that the questions being explored are clearly stated. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling of tidal motion in shoaling waters: The estuary of Milford Haven

An experimental survey of the estuary of Milford Haven has been carried out in which velocity, temperature and salinity have been measured over the full extent of the estuary during a complete spring and a complete neap- tidal cycle. The measurements were taken from three survey vessels, each of which was used to service six or seven survey points so that the measurements comprised a total of about 40 vertical profiles distributed over a grid of 20 survey points for each tide. Tide level measurements at two points were made simultaneously. The experimental measurements of tidal level have been used to calibrate a two-dimensional mathematical model based upon a new numerical representation of the shallow water equations. The predictions of velocity for the model have been compared with vertically integrated velocities calculated from experiments, and good agreement has been found over the full extent of the estuary.The effect of a strong south-westerly wind in the estuary has been examined in numerical simulation.     

Intersexuality in crustaceans: genetic, individual and population level effects

Scientists investigating toxicants such as endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) at the cellular at the sub-cellular level are often faced with criticisms as to how these effects can be extrapolated to the level of individuals and their populations. This report aims to provide an overview of the studies undertaken on crustacean model, Echinogammarus marinus LEACH (AMPHIPODA), and intersex phenotypes, at the individual and population levels, and provide additional emergent data at the genomic level. These, normal and intersex, males and females have been investigated by cross-hybridisation microarray analysis and specific sexually dimorphic genes and corresponding properties identified between each sexual phenotype. The morphology, physiology and histology of these intersexes have been investigated in detail and a number of reproductive costs have been identified including reduced fecundity and fertility. These costs have been incorporated into a population model and simulated over a ten-year period to ascertain how different levels of intersexuality affect the stability of populations. Based on the information gained through study of intersex models (with known endocrine dysfunction) together with the substantial quantity of historical data relating to effects of chemicals on amphipod fecundity, growth and mortality, the development of appropriate biomarkers is nearer to being assessed from the level of genes to that of the population.     

Modelling of natural and synthetic polyelectrolyte interactions in natural waters by using SIT, Pitzer and Ion Pairing approaches

In this paper SIT and Pitzer models are used for the first time to describe the interactions of natural and synthetic polyelectrolytes in natural waters. Measurements were made potentiometrically at 25 °C in single electrolyte media, such as Et₄NI and NaCl (for fulvic acid 0.1 < I /mol L^− 1 < 0.75), and in a multi-component medium simulating the composition of natural waters at a wide range of salinities (for fulvic and alginic acids: 5 < S < 45) with particular reference to sea water [Synthetic Sea Water for Equilibrium studies, SSWE]. In order to simplify calculations, SSWE was considered to be a “single salt” BA, with cation B and anion A representing all the major cations (Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺) and anions (Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻) in natural sea water, respectively. The ion pair formation model was also applied to fulvate and alginate in artificial sea water by examining the interaction of polyanions with the single sea water cation. Results were compared with those obtained from previous speciation studies of synthetic polyelectrolytes (polyacrylic and polymethacrylic acids of different molecular weights). Results indicate that the SIT, Pitzer and Ion Pairing formation models used in studies of low molecular weight electrolytes may also be applied to polyelctrolytes with a few simple adjustments.     

风暴增水随机分析的过阈法及其统计计算模式

以青岛大港观测站 32年增水过程为例 ,探讨风暴增水工程设计参数的频率分析法 ,进行了不同阈值序列及各种理论线型的分布拟合。首次提出 Poisson- Pearson- III型分布模式 ,并将其用于工程计算 :对比分析 POT法与年极值法的计算结果 ;给出青岛大港站风暴增水多年一遇设计值 ,为进一步科学地确定海岸防潮工程设计水位奠定了基础。     

海洋工程设计风速与波高的联合分布

选取我国渤海某处21a的风暴过程后报资料,考虑风暴发生频次的影响,提出泊松二维逻辑分布,并且将其用于海洋石油工程设计中极值风速与波高的联合概率计算,给出了计算海域的风浪设计参数,并与传统的设计标准进行了比较.计算结果表明,新的统计模式适用于受风暴影响海区的海洋工程结构设计,特别是边际油田的开发建设.     

Determination of residence time and mixing processes of the Ubatuba,Brazil, inner shelf waters using natural Ra isotopes

Coastal waters contain elevated dissolved activities of short-lived radium isotopes, ²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra, having half-lives of 11.4 and 3.66 days, respectively. The input of these isotopes near the coast must be balanced by decay and mixing into the open ocean, where excess activities are zero. Since the decay rate is known, in the ideal case the mixing rate may be determined from the offshore distribution of these isotopes. This study found that samples collected in June 2000 followed the expected exponential decrease with distance offshore. We assign a dispersion coefficient of 28–39 m² s⁻¹ for this study. During January 2002 and November 2003, there was not a consistent decrease of activity with distance offshore. This is likely due to the ruggedness of the coastline, where many bays and small islands interrupt simple mixing patterns. To estimate exchange rates during 2002 and 2003, we used a model based on the decrease in the ²²⁴Ra/²²³Ra activity ratio (AR) with time for samples isolated from fresh inputs of Ra. This model yielded residence times of 1–2 weeks for samples collected within 20 km of the coast. We used this residence time to calculate the flux of ²²⁸Ra (half-life = 5.7 years) to the study area necessary to maintain the enrichment relative to ocean water. This enrichment is a factor of ten greater than the flux of ²²⁸Ra expected from submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) occurring within 50 m of shore.     

海浪等随机变量有界概率分布及工程应用

提出了一种随机量有界概率分布形式，该分布包含随机量的下界α、上界b及α、β两个特定系数共四个参量，由改变其中任一个参量所显示的结果看出，该分布具有较强的普适性。将该分布应用于海洋工程设计中常用的海浪波高长期分布的重现期及重现值的分析，得出了比P—Ⅲ型、Weibull及Gumble等分布较为合理的分析结果。     

渤海及黄海北部年极值冰厚概率分布的统计分析

采用渤海及黄海北部后报30a最大冰厚样本序列,采用平稳二项随机过程模型和组合概率分析方法,统计得到了年最大冰厚概率分布,估计了模型参数,并推算了不同重现期的极值冰厚.推算结果表明,该模型较好地刻划了该海域年最大冰厚的概率特性,为渤海海域平台结构设计和可靠性分析提供了重要的荷载基础.