Microseismicity around rupture area of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake from ocean bottom seismograph observations

Along the Nankai trough, southwestern Japan, the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) is subducting beneath the Eurasian plate, and large interplate earthquakes have occurred repeatedly with a recurrence interval of about 100-200 years. The most recent large thrust event in the eastern Nankai trough off Kii Peninsula was the 1944 Tonankai earthquake. In this region, current seismicity is very low and hypocenters are not determined accurately by the land seismic network. We conducted microseismicity observations around the rupture area of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake using ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs). Hypocenters were determined using a 2-D seismic velocity structure model based on an airgun-OBS seismic survey. Results obtained show that the seismicity was relatively active near the trough axis. These earthquakes may relate to deformation of the subducting Philippine Sea plate. On the other hand, microseismicity in the rupture area of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake was very low. This low-level seismic activity in the co-seismic rupture area of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake likely relates to a single large asperity off Kii Peninsula.     

龙门山地区类似2008年汶川大地震滑坡物质河流卸载时间的定量估算

定量研究地震滑坡物质河流卸载时间对理解地震与造山带地貌演化之间的关系有着十分重要的意义.本文以青藏高原东缘龙门山构造带内岷江流域为例,定量估算了2008年汶川大地震滑坡物质的河流卸载时间.研究结果表明,如果以位于龙门山构造带内的岷江河段现有搬运能力计算,并且岷江可以有效地搬运汶川地震滑坡物质,地震滑坡物质至少在3100 yr内被岷江卸载出龙门山.而龙门山构造带中段类似2008年汶川M_s8.0级大地震的复发周期约为3000 yr左右,暗示大地震所产生的滑坡物质量可以在大地震复发周期内基本上被侵蚀和剥蚀所平衡,并被卸载出龙门山构造带. 因此,我们推断:除了周期性大地震造成的地表抬升的累积外,龙门山地区地震及其它地表过程所产生的剥蚀物质通过河流快速卸载驱动了地壳均衡反弹和深部物质上涌,形成了青藏高原东缘的高陡地形梯度带. 相关的地球物理证据表明在青藏高原东缘可能存在由地表快速剥蚀(或侵蚀)所引发的地球深部地幔软流圈物质上涌.     

Discrimination of earthquakes and quarry blasts in the eastern Black Sea region of Turkey

In recent years, a large number of quarry blasts have been detonated in the eastern Black Sea region. When these blasts are recorded by seismic stations, they contaminate the regional earthquake catalog. It is necessary to discriminate quarry blast records from the earthquake catalogs in order to determine the real seismicity of the region. Earthquakes and quarry blasts can be separated through different methods. These methods should be applied concurrently in order to safely distinguish these events. In this study, we discriminated quarry blasts from earthquakes in the eastern Black Sea region of Turkey. We used 186 seismic events recorded by the Karadeniz Technical University and Bogaziçi University Kandilli Observatory Earthquake Research Institute stations which are Trabzon, Espiye, Pazar, Borçka, Ayd?ntepe, and Gümü?hane between years of 2002 and 2010. For the discrimination of quarry blasts from earthquakes, we used both, statistical methods (calculation of the maximum ratio of S to P waves (S/P), complexity (C)) and spectral methods (spectrogram calculation). These methods included measuring the maximum amplitude S/P, C, spectral ratio, and time-frequency analysis. We especially relied on two-dimensional time-frequency analysis methods to discriminate quarry blasts from earthquakes in Turkey. As a result of this study, 68 % of the examined seismic events were determined to be quarry blasts and 32 % to be earthquakes. The earthquakes occurring on land are related to small faults and the blasts are concentrated in large quarries. Nearly 40 % of the earthquakes occurred in the Black Sea, most of them are related to the Black Sea thrust belt, where the largest earthquake was observed in the time period studied. The areas with the largest earthquake potential in the eastern Black Sea region are in the sea.     

Faulting Processes of Historic (1917–1962) M = 6.0 Earthquakes Along the North-central Caribbean Margin

—The plate boundary along the north-central Caribbean margin is geologically complex. Our understanding of this complexity is hampered by the fact that plate motions are relatively slow (1 to 2 cm/yr), so that recent seismicity often does not provide a complete picture of tectonic deformation. Studies of the faulting processes of instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring prior to 1962 thus provide important information regarding the nature and rate of seismic deformation within the region, and are essential for a comprehensive assessment of seismic hazard. We have conducted body waveform modeling studies of eight earthquakes which occurred along the north-central Caribbean plate margin, extending from southeastern Cuba to the Swan Island fracture zone (75 to 83°W). None of these earthquakes has been previously studied and several occurred in regions where no recent (post-1962) seismicity has been recorded. The plate margin in the western portion of our study area is characterized by a transform fault-spreading center system. In the central and eastern portions of our study area the plate margin is a complex, diffuse region of deformation that couples transform motion in the Cayman trough to subduction along the Lesser Antilles arc. Our results show that the western portion of the study area has only experienced large strike-slip earthquakes. Off southeastern Cuba two earthquakes appear to have occurred on high angle, northward dipping, reverse faults with south to southeastward directed slip vectors. An earthquake in northern Jamaica in 1957 shows pure strike-slip faulting, most likely along an east-west trending fault. Finally, an unusual sequence of events located in the Pedro Bank region ~70 km southwest of Jamaica has a mainshock with a reverse-oblique mechanism, suggesting continuity of the plate interface stress field well south of the northern Caribbean margin.     

Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.     

MIGRATION OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN TIBETAN BLOCK AREA AND DISSCUSSION ON MAJOR ACTIVE REGION IN THE FUTURE

On the basis of summarizing the circulation characteristics and mechanism of earthquakes with magnitude 7 or above in continental China, the spatial-temporal migration characteristics, mechanism and future development trend of earthquakes with magnitude above 7 in Tibetan block area are analyzed comprehensively. The results show that there are temporal clustering and spatial zoning of regional strong earthquakes and large earthquakes in continental China, and they show the characteristics of migration and circulation in time and space. In the past 100a, there are four major earthquake cluster areas that have migrated from west to east and from south to north, i.e. 1)Himalayan seismic belt and Tianshan-Baikal seismic belt; 2)Mid-north to north-south seismic belt in Tibetan block area; 3)North-south seismic belt-periphery of Assam cape; and 4)North China and Sichuan-Yunnan area. The cluster time of each area is about 20a, and a complete cycle time is about 80a. The temporal and spatial images of the migration and circulation of strong earthquakes are consistent with the motion velocity field images obtained through GPS observations in continental China. The mechanism is related to the latest tectonic activity in continental China, which is mainly affected by the continuous compression of the Indian plate to the north on the Eurasian plate, the rotation of the Tibetan plateau around the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, and the additional stress field caused by the change of the earth's rotation speed.
Since 1900AD, the Tibetan block area has experienced three periods of high tides of earthquake activity clusters(also known as earthquake series), among which the Haiyuan-Gulang earthquake series from 1920 to 1937 mainly occurred around the active block boundary structural belt on the periphery of the Tibetan block region, with the largest earthquake occurring on the large active fault zone in the northeastern boundary belt. The Chayu-Dangxiong earthquake series from 1947 to 1976 mainly occurred around the large-scale boundary active faults of Qiangtang block, Bayankala block and eastern Himalayan syntaxis within the Tibetan block area. In the 1995-present Kunlun-Wenchuan earthquake series, 8 earthquakes with M_S7.0 or above have occurred on the boundary fault zones of the Bayankala block. Therefore, the Bayankala block has become the main area of large earthquake activity on the Tibetan plateau in the past 20a. The clustering characteristic of this kind of seismic activity shows that in a certain period of time, strong earthquake activity can occur on the boundary fault zone of the same block or closely related blocks driven by a unified dynamic mechanism, reflecting the overall movement characteristics of the block. The migration images of the main active areas of the three earthquake series reflect the current tectonic deformation process of the Tibetan block region, where the tectonic activity is gradually converging inward from the boundary tectonic belt around the block, and the compression uplift and extrusion to the south and east occurs in the plateau. This mechanism of gradual migration and repeated activities from the periphery to the middle can be explained by coupled block movement and continuous deformation model, which conforms to the dynamic model of the active tectonic block hypothesis.
A comprehensive analysis shows that the Kunlun-Wenchuan earthquake series, which has lasted for more than 20a, is likely to come to an end. In the next 20a, the main active area of the major earthquakes with magnitude 7 on the continental China may migrate to the peripheral boundary zone of the Tibetan block. The focus is on the eastern boundary structural zone, i.e. the generalized north-south seismic belt. At the same time, attention should be paid to the earthquake-prone favorable regions such as the seismic empty sections of the major active faults in the northern Qaidam block boundary zone and other regions. For the northern region of the Tibetan block, the areas where the earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above are most likely to occur in the future will be the boundary structural zones of Qaidam active tectonic block, including Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone, the northern margin fault zone of western Qinling, the eastern Kunlun fault zone and the Altyn Tagh fault zone, etc., as well as the empty zones or empty fault segments with long elapse time of paleo-earthquake or no large historical earthquake rupture in their structural transformation zones. In future work, in-depth research on the seismogenic tectonic environment in the above areas should be strengthened, including fracture geometry, physical properties of media, fracture activity behavior, earthquake recurrence rule, strain accumulation degree, etc., and then targeted strengthening tracking monitoring and earthquake disaster prevention should be carried out.     

藏东南及周边地区地震活动特征研究

藏东南及周边地区是印度板块与欧亚板块动力碰撞的影响区, 该区历史地震活动强烈, 曾发生过1950年墨脱—察隅8.6级和1951年当雄8.0级地震。 本文首先介绍藏东南及周边地区的地质构造背景, 其次通过考察该地区强震活动情况和活动地块边界带相关段落的加卸载响应比(LURR)时序特征, 分析了研究区的强震活动状态。 从历史地震活动看, 安达曼弧地区与喜马拉雅东构造结地区强震活动存在一定的动力关联, 当前研究区域的周边动力环境表现为安达曼弧地区地震活动强烈和东构造结地区的持续平静。 从地震活动图像看, 1980年以来6级以上地震在藏东南及周边地区已经形成空区, 表现类似于1950年墨脱—察隅地震前的空间分布特征。 从活动地块边界带相关段落LURR时序特征看, 喜马拉雅带东段现处于高应力状态, 其次为澜沧江带与三江带。     

中国构造应力场与大震复发周期关系的数值模拟

由古地震资料推算得到的中国境内各活动断裂带上大震复发周期值存在很大差异,对于这种差异可从构造应力产生的弹性应变能分布去探讨其原因。经过对中国及邻区边界条件和受力方式进行较详细的分析后,先以最大主压应力方向为判据,用有限元数值模拟方法反演中国及邻区的板块边界力和区内的构造应力场,然后分析计算应变能随离板块边界的距离增大所呈现的衰减规律,由此换算出要达到相同应变能（一次地震）各地所需的积累时间,并将其与用古地震方法得到的一些已知断层带大震复发周期进行对比。结果表明用应力衰减图象能解释不同地区大震复发周期的显著差异     

Paleotectonic structures and their influence on recent seismo-tectonics in the south Kuril subduction zone

Abstract Bathymetric data from south of Hokkaido obtained during a cruise of R/V Hakuho-Maru are summarized, and their correlation with earthquake occurrence is discussed. There are structural lineations on the seaward slope of the Kuril Trench, oblique to the Kuril Trench axis and parallel to the magnetic lineations in the Pacific plate. The structural lineations comprise horst-grabens generated by normal faulting. This suggests that Cretaceous tectonic structures originating at the spreading centre affect present seismotectonics around the trench axis. The structural-magnetic relation is compared to the case of the Japan Trench. North-east of the surveyed area, there are two major fracture zones (Nosappu Fracture Zone and Iturup Fracture Zone) that divide the oceanic plate into three segments. If the fracture zones (FZ) and the zone of paleo-mechanical weakness, represented by magnetic lineations, can control the direction of normal faults at a trench, the extent of the resulting topographic roughness on the seaward slope of the trench would be different across an FZ because of the differences in ages. By studying recent large earthquakes occurring in the south Kuril region, it is shown that several main-aftershock distributions for large earthquakes in this region are bounded by the Nosappu FZ and the Iturup FZ. Two models (Barrier model and Rebound model) are presented to interpret earthquake occurrence near the south Kuril Islands. The Barrier model explains seismic boundaries seen in several examples for earthquake occurrence in the south Kuril regions. The fracture zone forming the boundary of two segments with different magnetic lineations is also the boundary of two different normal fault systems on their ocean bottom, and the difference in sea-bottom roughness between two normal fault systems should affect the seismic coupling at a plate interface. Due to the difference of seismic coupling, earthquake occurrence is controlled by an FZ and then the FZ acts as a seismic boundary (Barrier model). Existing normal faults created by plate bending of subducting oceanic plate should rebound after its subduction (Rebound model). This rebound of normal faults may cause intraplate earthquakes with a high-angle reverse-fault mechanism such as the 1994 Shikotan Earthquake. The energy released by an intraplate earthquake generated by normal-fault rebounding is not directly related to that of interplate earthquakes such as low-angle thrust earthquakes. It is a reason why large earthquakes occurred in the same region during a relatively short period.     

Suboceanic earthquake location and seismic structure in the Kanto district,central Japan

We present a combined method, using sP depth-phase data and double-difference arrival times, to determine the precise hypocenter locations of earthquakes that occur under the Pacific Ocean outside of the area covered by the land-based seismic network. We assess the effectiveness of the combined method using a data set of P- and S-wave arrival times and sP depth phase from suboceanic earthquakes recorded by both land-based seismic stations and offshore seismic stations (OFS). The hypocenters of the offshore earthquakes relocated using the combined method are consistent with those determined using the standard location method and OFS data. The differences in the hypocenters relocated by the two methods are less than 4 km. We applied the method to the subduction region that underlies the Kanto district, central Japan, and located a large number of earthquakes that occurred beneath the Pacific Ocean. We then determined the detailed 3D seismic velocity structure by inverting a large number of arrival times of P- and S-waves and sP depth phase from the relocated earthquakes in the study region. High-velocity anomalies related to the cold subducting Pacific slab and low-velocity anomalies related to the hot mantle wedge are clearly imaged. Beneath active volcanoes, low-velocity zones are visible from the surface to a depth of 100 km, reflecting fluids released by dehydration of the subducting Pacific slab. Strong lateral heterogeneities are revealed on the upper boundary of the Pacific slab beneath the forearc region. The low-velocity areas under the offshore region are associated with low seismicity and weak interplate coupling. A low-velocity layer is imaged along the upper boundary of the Philippine Sea slab in the northern part of Kanto district, which may reflect dehydration of the slab. Our tomographic images indicate that the overlaying Philippine Sea plate has effects on the spatial distribution of active volcanoes related to the subducting Pacific slab in the study region.     

Nonuniform and Unsteady Sliding of a Plate Boundary in a Great Earthquake Cycle: A Numerical Simulation Using a Laboratory-derived Friction Law

—A numerical study is conducted to simulate complicated sliding behavior and earthquake activity on a subducting plate boundary. A 2-D model of a uniform elastic half-space with a semi-infinite thrust fault is set up, and the frictional stress prescribed by a rate- and state-dependent friction law is assumed to act on the plate boundary fault. Spatial nonuniformity of friction parameters representing rate-dependence of friction and of slip-dependence of friction are introduced in the model to obtain complicated sliding behavior in the numerical simulation. Analogs of great earthquakes that break the entire seismogenic plate boundary repeatedly occur at a constant time interval. Smaller events of seismic or aseismic sliding occur during a great earthquake cycle. Regions of rate-strengthening of friction and of a large characteristic distance in slip-dependence of friction behave as barriers or asperities. Rupture propagation is often arrested in such a region and a great earthquake occurs later when the region is broken. The variety of earthquake activity observed in many regions along real plate boundaries may be explained by similar nonuniformity in friction parameters. Conversely, the friction parameters on plate boundaries might be estimated from comparison of theoretical simulations with observations of earthquake activity. Simulation results indicate that spatiotemporal variation in stress due to aseismic sliding may play an important part in generating earthquakes.     

Application of the predictable model of regional time-magnitude to North and Southwest China region

In this paper, the method which can combine different seismic data with the different precision and completeness, even the palaeo-earthquake data, has been applied to estimate the yearly seismic moment rate in the seismic region. Based on this, the predictable model of regional time-magnitude has been used in North China and Southwest China. The normal correlation between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the last strong earthquake shows that the model is suitable. The value of the parameter c is less than the average value of 0.33 that is obtained from the events occurred in the plate boundary in the world. It is explained that the correlativity between the recurrence interval of the earthquake and the magnitude of the last strong event is not obvious. It is shown that the continental earthquakes in China are different from that occurred in the plate boundary and the recurrence model for the continental events are different from the one for the plate boundary events. Finally the seismic risk analysis based on this model for North China and Southwest China is given in this paper.     

Influence of fluids and magma on earthquakes: seismological evidence

In this paper, we present seismological evidence for the influence of fluids and magma on the generation of large earthquakes in the crust and the subducting oceanic slabs under the Japan Islands. The relationship between seismic tomography and large crustal earthquakes (M=5.7-8.0) in Japan during a period of 116 years from 1885 to 2000 is investigated and it is found that most of the large crustal earthquakes occurred in or around the areas of low seismic velocity. The low-velocity zones represent weak sections of the seismogenic crust. The crustal weakening is closely related to the subduction process in this region. Along the volcanic front and in back-arc areas, the crustal weakening is caused by active volcanoes and arc magma resulting from the convective circulation process in the mantle wedge and dehydration reactions in the subducting slab. In the forearc region of southwest Japan, fluids are suggested in the 1995 Kobe earthquake source zone, which have contributed to the rupture nucleation. The fluids originate from the dehydration of the subducting Philippine Sea slab. The recent 2001 Geiyo earthquake (M=6.8) occurred at 50 km depth within the subducting Philippine Sea slab, and it was also related to the slab dehydration process. A detailed 3D velocity structure is determined for the northeast Japan forearc region using data from 598 earthquakes that occurred under the Pacific Ocean with hypocenters well located with SP depth phases. The results show that strong lateral heterogeneities exist along the slab boundary, which represent asperities and results of slab dehydration and affect the degree and extent of the interplate seismic coupling. These results indicate that large earthquakes do not strike anywhere, but only anomalous areas which can be detected with geophysical methods. The generation of a large earthquake is not a pure mechanical process, but is closely related to physical and chemical properties of materials in the crust and upper mantle, such as magma, fluids, etc.     

Rejuvenated extension of the Philippine Sea plate and its effect on subduction dynamics in the Nankai Trough

The Nankai Trough, Japan, is a subduction zone characterized by the recurrence of disastrous earthquakes and tsunamis. Slow earthquakes and associated tremor also occur intermittently and locally in the Nankai Trough and the causal relationship between slow earthquakes and large earthquakes is important to understanding subduction zone dynamics. The Nankai Trough off Muroto, Shikoku Island, near the southeast margin of the rupture segment of the 1946 Nankai earthquake, is one of three regions where slow earthquakes and tremor cluster in the Nankai Trough. On the Philippine Sea plate, the rifting of the central domain of the Shikoku Basin was aborted at ~15 Ma and underthrust the Nankai forearc off Muroto. Here, the Tosa-Bae seamount and other high-relief features, which are northern extension of the Kinan Seamount chain, have collided with and indented the forearc wedge. In this study, we analyzed seismic reflection profiles around the deformation front of accretionary wedge and stratigraphically correlated them to drilling sites off Muroto. Our results show that the previously aborted horst-and-graben structures, which were formed around the spreading center of the Shikoku Basin at ~15 Ma, were rejuvenated locally at ~6 Ma and more regionally at ~3.3 Ma and have remained active since. The reactivated normal faulting has enhanced seafloor roughness and appears to affect the locations of slow earthquakes and tremors. Rejuvenated normal faulting is not limited to areas near the Nankai Trough, and extends more than 200 km into the Shikoku Basin to the south. This extension might be due to extensional forces applied to the Philippine Sea plate, which appear to be driven by slab-pull in the Ryukyu and Philippine trenches along the western margin of the Philippine Sea plate.     

COULOMB STRESS EVOLUTION AND SEISMIC HAZARD ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SICHUAN-YUNNAN BLOCK

Using a more realistic model of multi-layered viscoelastic media, and considering the effects of the coseismic dislocation and the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation caused by the 34 great earthquakes occurring along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block since 1480 and the interseismic stress accumulation caused by the tectonic loading generated by plate motions which were modeled by introducing "virtual negative displacements" along the major fault segment in the region under study, we calculated the evolution of the Coulomb stress change in each fault plane of 18 major fault segments along the eastern boundary caused by the coseismic, postseismic and interseismic effects. We studied the interactions of the Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones on the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block. By evaluating if the previous earthquake could bring another earthquake closer to or farther from failure, we analyzed the interactions of the earthquakes which occurred in the different segments in the same fault zone, or in the different fault zones respectively. And further based on the calculation results of the Coulomb stress change on the fault planes, we analyzed the seismic hazard of each fault segment.The results show that the previous earthquake may trigger another earthquake which can occur in the same fault zone or in the different fault zone. And the calculation results on the evolution of the cumulative Coulomb stress change in the each fault segment show that, the Coulomb stress increases significantly in the middle section and the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault zone, the Qiaojia-dongchuan segment and the Jianshui segment of the Xiaojiang fault zone, and the seismic hazard in these fault segments is worthy paying attention to.     

GeoFEM Kinematic Earthquake Cycle Simulation in Southwest Japan

— We construct a viscoelastic FEM model with 3-D configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea plate in Southwest Japan to simulate recent 300-year kinematic earthquake cycles along the Nankai-Suruga-Sagami trough, based on the kinematic earthquake cycle model. This 300-year simulation contains a series of three great interplate earthquakes. The inclusion of viscoelasticity produces characteristic velocity field during earthquake cycles regardless of the assumed constant plate coupling throughout the interseismic period. Just after the occurrence of interplate earthquakes, the viscoelastic relaxation creates the seaward motion in the inland region. In the middle period, the seaward motion gradually decreases, and the resultant velocity field is similar to the elastic one. Later, just before the next interplate earthquake, displacements due to the interplate coupling in the viscoelastic material are distributed more broadly in the forearc region than in the purely elastic one, since the viscoelastic relaxation due to the previous earthquake mostly disappears. The effects of such interplate earthquake cycles on five major inland faults in southwest Japan, where large intraplate earthquakes occurred during this period, are quantitatively evaluated using the Coulomb failure function (CFF). The calculated change in CFF successfully predicts the occurrence of the 1995 Kobe earthquake (M～7). The occurrence of other inland earthquakes, however, cannot be explained by the calculated changes in CFF, and especially the 1891 Nobi earthquake (M～8), the largest inland earthquake in Japan, which occurred at the time close to the local minimum of CFF. This implies that further improvements are necessary for our FEM modeling, such as the modeling of steady east-west compressive force and stress interactions between the inland faults.     

汶川MS8.0级地震成因三“层次”分析——基于深部电性结构

2008年5月12日汶川M_S8级地震的发生不是局部地区孤立的构造事件,研究汶川地震的孕震机制,应该把局部分析和区域分析相结合,关注地壳上地幔直至地幔过渡带的深部结构.基于近年来在东北、华北和汶川地震附近地区进行的深部结构电磁探测结果,结合地震学等其他资料,从太平洋板块的俯冲、印度板块的碰撞和松潘甘孜地块的推挤三个“层次”探讨分析汶川特大地震的成因.太平洋板块向亚洲大陆的俯冲作用,导致中国大陆东部地幔过渡带深度较普遍地存在着停滞的板片,它对汶川地震的影响不可忽视.印度板块与青藏高原的碰撞,使组成高原的各地块发生向北和向东的运动,各地块向东的运动作用于南北地震带中南段,影响到该区域的地震活动.松潘甘孜地块向四川地块的推挤,使松潘甘孜地块运动方向和龙门山断裂带形成“丁”字形结构,龙门山断裂带显示为较陡直的电性边界,加剧了汶川地震前的应力积累,可能是汶川地震发生的最直接的诱因.     

青藏高原东北缘主要断裂带的库仑应力演化及其强震危险性

自1920年海原发生M8.5地震以来,青藏高原东北缘接连发生了1927年古浪M8.0地震、1932年昌马M7.6地震等一系列大地震,使其进入了强震活动的丛集期。为了探究青藏高原东北缘这一系列地震间的相互作用及区域地震危险性,建立青藏高原东北缘的三维Maxwell黏弹性有限元模型,模拟了区域自1920年以来17次M6.7以上地震的同震及震后库仑应力演化。结果显示：研究区自1920年海原M8.5大地震之后,后续的16次地震中,有13次地震发生在库仑应力变化为正的区域,说明了地震间的相互作用可能是导致区域地震丛集的主要原因之一。系列地震发生后,阿尔金断裂、柴达木盆地断裂西段、东昆仑断裂中段、鄂拉山断裂北段、共和盆地断裂南段、日月山断裂南段、庄浪河断裂、礼县—罗家堡断裂、成县盆地断裂西段、文县断裂西段、龙首山断裂南段、六盘山断裂东段、西秦岭北缘断裂东段、海原断裂西段和祁连断裂东段位于库仑应力变化为正的区域,且大部分断裂或断裂段的累积库仑应力变化超过了0.01 MPa,它们未来的地震危险性较高。     

Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906.