A Model of Regional Ground-Water Flow in Secondary-Permeability Terrane

The ground-water flow system in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and Maryland can be considered as one complex unconfined aquifer in which secondary porosity and permeability are the dominant influences on the occurrence and flow of ground water. The degree of development of secondary porosity and permeability in the various lithologies of the lower basin determines the aquifer characteristics of each lithology. Based on qualitative evidence, the use of a porous-media model was assumed to be appropriate on a regional scale and a finite-difference ground-water flow model was constructed for the lower basin. The conceptual model of ground-water flow in the lower basin incorporates the major features of the flow system. Through the use of two layers, 21 hydrogeologic units, and five topographic settings, the conceptual model was systematically reduced to arrive at a simplified conceptual model. Further reduction produced a numerical model representation of the conceptual model, in which the essential features of the lower-basin flow system were quantified for input into the numerical model. The model was calibrated under both steady-state and transient conditions, and was used to evaluate the water-supply potential of the 21 hydrogeologic units. The carbonate units have the greatest potential for ground-water development and the Triassic sedimentary and crystalline units have the least potential. A total ground-water yield potential of about 900 million gallons per day could be obtained from the lower basin with a consequent 50-percent reduction of base flow in streams.     

AN EXERCISE IN GROUND-WATER MODEL CALIBRATION AND PREDICTION

Abstract. For a classroom exercise, nine groups of graduate students calibrated a numerical ground-water flow model to a set of perfectly observed hydraulic head data for a hypothetical phreatic aquifer. All groups used exactly the same numerical model and identical sets of observed data. After calibration, the students predicted the hydraulic head distribution in the aquifer resulting from a modification in one boundary condition. A quantitative analysis of the results of this calibration-prediction exercise vividly demonstrates some of the difficulties in parameter identification for ground-water flow models. Group predictions differed significantly. Successful prediction was strongly correlated with successful estimation of conductivity values, and was essentially unrelated to successful estimation of aquifer bottom elevations or with the number of trial-and-error simulations required for calibration. Most importantly, success in prediction was unrelated to success in matching observed heads under premodification conditions. In this sense, good calibration did not lead to good prediction.     

Model Calibration Techniques for Use with the Analytic Element Method

The combination of the analytic element method and a nonlinear parameter estimation technique forges a computationally efficient, information-rich, and cost-effective solution to the inverse ground-water flow problem. The recommended model calibration method uses a nonlinear least-squares objective, as quantified by misfitting the measured and modeled heads, and a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. As detailed and demonstrated by a steady-state regional aquifer model of Bemidji, Minnesota, automated calibration techniques make ground-water modeling feasible for a wider variety of projects where tight budgets and a lack of tools may have previously made such modeling inappropriate.     

Study of Shallow Low-Enthalpy Geothermal Resources Using Integrated Geophysical Methods

The paper is focused on low enthalpy geothermal exploration performed in south Italy and provides an integrated presentation of geological, hydrogeological, and geophysical surveys carried out in the area of municipality of Lecce. Geological and hydrogeological models were performed using the stratigraphical data from 51 wells. A ground-water flow (direction and velocity) model was obtained. Using the same wells data, the ground-water annual temperature was modeled. Furthermore, the ground surface temperature records from ten meteorological stations were studied. This allowed us to obtain a model related to the variations of the temperature at different depths in the subsoil. Integrated geophysical surveys were carried out in order to explore the low-enthalpy geothermal fluids and to evaluate the results of the model. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and self-potential (SP) methods were used. The results obtained upon integrating the geophysical data with the models show a low-enthalpy geothermal resource constituted by a shallow ground-water system.     

Role of Geological and Geophysical Data in Modeling a Southwestern Alluvial Basin

A parameter-estimation technique based on existing hydrological, geophysical, and geological data was developed to approximate transmissivity values for use in a ground-water flow model of the Animas Valley, southwest New Mexico. Complete Bouguer gravity anomaly maps together with seismic-refraction profiles, geologic maps, geologic, geophysical, and drillers' logs, water levels, and pumping-test data provide insight into the transmissivity of bolson deposits throughout the basin. The transmissivity distribution was primarily based on reported pumping and specific-capacity tests in conjunction with complete Bouguer gravity anomaly maps and well log data. Reported transmissivity values were characterized by gravity values and well log data. In grid blocks lacking pumping and specific-capacity tests, transmissivity values were assigned based on the relationship of gravity values and well log data within the grid block to gravity values and well log data within other grid blocks for which transmissivity values are available. A two-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow computer code was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the parameter-estimation technique. Although the trial-and-error method of calibration was employed, the actual computer time necessary for model calibration was minimal. The conceptually straightforward approach for parameter estimation utilizing existing hydrological, geophysical, and geological data provides realistic parameter estimates.     

A Method for Estimating Field-Scale Mass Transfer Rate Parameters and Assessing Aquifer Cleanup Times

A general method for estimating ground-water solute mass transfer rate parameters from field test data is presented. The method entails matching solute concentration and hydraulic head data collected during the recovery phase of a pumping test through application of a simulation-regression technique. Estimation of hydraulic conductivity and mass transfer rate parameter values is performed by fitting model simulations to the data. Parameter estimates are utilized to assess cleanup times for pump-and-treat aquifer remediation scenarios. Uncertainty in the cleanup time estimate is evaluated using statistical information obtained with the parameter estimation technique. Application of the method is demonstrated using a hypothetical ground-water flow and solute transport system. Simulations of field testing, parameter estimation, and remedial time frames are performed to evaluate the usefulness of the method. Sets of random noise that signify potential field and laboratory measurement errors are combined with the hypothetical data to provide rigorous testing of the method. Field tests are simulated using ranges of values for data noise, the mass transfer rate parameters, the test pumping rates, and the duration of recovery monitoring to evaluate their respective influence on parameter and cleanup time estimates. The demonstration indicates the method is capable of yielding accurate estimates of the solute mass transfer rate parameters. When the parameter values for the hypothetical system are well estimated, cleanup time predictions are shown to be more accurate than when calculated using the local equilibrium assumption.     

Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment

Despite their acknowledged limitations, lumped conceptual models continue to be used widely for climate‐change impact assessments. Therefore, it is important to understand the relative magnitude of uncertainties in water resource projections arising from the choice of model calibration period, model structure, and non‐uniqueness of model parameter sets. In addition, external sources of uncertainty linked to choice of emission scenario, climate model ensemble member, downscaling technique(s), and so on, should be acknowledged. To this end, the CATCHMOD conceptual water balance model was used to project changes in daily flows for the River Thames at Kingston using parameter sets derived from different subsets of training data, including the full record. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to explore parameter stability and identifiability in the context of historic climate variability. Parameters reflecting rainfall acceptance at the soil surface in simpler model structures were found to be highly sensitive to the training period, implying that climatic variability does lead to variability in the hydrologic behaviour of the Thames basin. Non‐uniqueness of parameters for more complex model structures results in relatively small variations in projected annual mean flow quantiles for different training periods compared with the choice of emission scenario. However, this was not the case for subannual flow statistics, where uncertainty in flow changes due to equifinality was higher in winter than summer, and comparable in magnitude to the uncertainty of the emission scenario. Therefore, it is recommended that climate‐change impact assessments using conceptual water balance models should routinely undertake sensitivity analyses to quantify uncertainties due to parameter instability, identifiability and non‐uniqueness. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiple Working Transport Hypotheses in a Heterogeneous Glacial Aquifer System

Multiple working hypotheses can be used to evaluate permissible alternative hydrogeological interpretations at sites with limited subsurface control. This approach was applied to test the viability of three conceptual aquifer system architecture models coupled with three hypothesized source locations for a 1,4-dioxane plume in a heterogeneous glacial aquifer system in Washtenaw County, Michigan. The three alternative conceptual models characterized the site hydrogeology with increasingly complex distributions of hydrostratigraphic units: (A) an effective aquifer, (B) a layered confined aquifer, and (C) a discretely heterogeneous aquifer model. Each was incorporated into an independently calibrated numerical ground water flow (MODFLOW) model. Steady-state and transient flow simulations of the alternative models were evaluated using both hydraulic flow field characteristics observed under natural conditions and the perturbed response after local remedial pumping activity began. Three plausible locations where 1,4-dioxane could have entered the aquifer system were identified using historical information at the site: (1) manufacturing waste water disposal lagoons, (2) a 60 foot (18 m) deep kettle lake, and (3) a shallow impoundment on a local stream. Advective transport modeling (MODPATH) was used to assess the consistency of the hypothesized source locations with observed contaminant migration pathways inferred from the mapped location of the plume. Evaluation of the nine combinations of hydrogeologic conceptualizations and 1,4-dioxane source locations led to elimination of four working hypotheses and discounting of two others, leading to reduced overall uncertainty and the development of new insights into the system behavior.     

Innovative Contaminant Mass Flux Monitoring in an Aquifer Subject to Tidal Effects

Exposure from groundwater contamination to aquatic receptors residing in receiving surface water is dependent upon the rate of contaminated groundwater discharge. Characterization of groundwater fluxes is challenging, especially in coastal environments where tidal fluctuations result in transient groundwater flows towards these receptors. This can also be further complicated by the high spatial heterogeneity of subsurface deposits enhanced by anthropogenic influences such as the mixing of natural sediments and backfill materials, the presence of subsurface built structures such as sheet pile walls or even occurrence of other sources of contaminant discharge. In this study, the finite volume point dilution method (FVPDM) was successfully used to characterize highly transient groundwater flows and contaminant mass fluxes within a coastal groundwater flow system influenced by marked tides. FVPDM tests were undertaken continuously for more than 48 h at six groundwater monitoring wells, in order to evaluate groundwater flow dynamics during several tide cycles. Contaminant concentrations were measured simultaneously which allowed calculating contaminant mass fluxes. The study highlighted the importance of the aquifer heterogeneity, with groundwater fluxes ranging from 10⁻⁷ to 10⁻³ m/s. Groundwater flux monitoring enabled a significant refinement of the conceptual site model, including the fact that inversion of groundwater fluxes was not observed at high tide. Results indicated that contaminant mass fluxes were particularly higher at a specific monitoring well, by more than three orders of magnitude, than at other wells of the investigated aquifer. This study provided crucial information for optimizing further field investigations and risk mitigation measures.     

Patterns and Age Distribution of Ground-Water Flow to Streams

Simulations of ground-water flow in a generic aquifer system were made to characterize the topology of ground-water flow in the stream subsystem and to evaluate its relation to deeper ground-water flow. The flow models are patterned after hydraulic characteristics of aquifers of the Atlantic Coastal Plain and are based on numerical solutions to three-dimensional, steady-state, unconfined flow. The models were used to evaluate the effects of aquifer horizontal-to-vertical hydraulic conductivity ratios, aquifer thickness, and areal recharge rates on flow in the stream subsystem. A particle tracker was used to determine flow paths in a stream subsystem, to establish the relation between ground-water seepage to points along a simulated stream and its source area of flow, and to determine ground-water residence time in stream subsystems. In a geometrically simple aquifer system with accretion, the source area of flow to streams resembles an elongated ellipse that tapers in the down gradient direction. Increased recharge causes an expansion of the stream subsystem. The source area of flow to the stream expands predominantly toward the stream headwaters. Base flow gain is also increased along the reach of the stream. A thin aquifer restricts ground-water flow and causes the source area of flow to expand near stream headwaters and also shifts the start-of-flow to the drainage basin divide. Increased aquifer anisotropy causes a lateral expansion of the source area of flow to streams. Ground-water seepage to the stream channel originates both from near- and far-recharge locations. The range in the lengths of flow paths that terminate at a point on a stream increase in the downstream direction. Consequently, the age distribution of ground water that seeps into the stream is skewed progressively older with distance downstream. Base flow ia an integration of ground water with varying age and potentially different water quality, depending on the source within the drainage basin. The quantitative results presented indicate that this integration can have a wide and complex residence time range and source distribution.     

Physically‐based modelling of double‐peak discharge responses at Slapton Wood catchment

Heavy winter rainfall produces double‐peak hydrographs at the Slapton Wood catchment, Devon, UK. The first peak is saturation‐excess overland flow in the hillslope hollows and the second (i.e. the delayed peak) is subsurface stormflow. The physically‐based spatially‐distributed model SHETRAN is used to try to improve the understanding of the processes that cause the double peaks. A three‐stage (multi‐scale) approach to calibration is used: (1) water balance validation for vertical one‐dimensional flow at arable, grassland and woodland plots; (2) two‐dimensional flow for cross‐sections cutting across the stream valley; and (3) three‐dimensional flow in the full catchment. The main data are for rainfall, stream discharge, evaporation, soil water potential and phreatic surface level. At each scale there was successful comparison with measured responses, using as far as possible parameter values from measurements. There was some calibration but all calibrated values at one scale were used at a larger scale. A large proportion of the subsurface runoff enters the stream from three dry valleys (hillslope hollows), and previous studies have suggested convergence of the water in the three large hollows as being the major mechanism for the production of the delayed peaks. The SHETRAN modelling suggests that the hillslopes that drain directly into the stream are also involved in producing the delayed discharges. The model shows how in the summer most of the catchment is hydraulically disconnected from the stream. In the autumn the catchment eventually ‘wets up’ and shallow subsurface flows are produced, with water deflected laterally along the soil‐bedrock interface producing the delayed peak in the stream hydrograph. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developing Potentiometric Surfaces and Flow Fields with a Head‐Specified MODFLOW Model

Investigating changes in an aquifer system often involves comparison of observed heads from different synoptic measurements, generally with potentiometric surfaces developed by hand or a statistical approach. Alternatively, head‐specified MODFLOW models, in which constant head cells simulate observed heads, generate gridded potentiometric surfaces that explicitly account for Darcy's Law and mass balance. We developed a transient head‐specified MODFLOW model for the stratified Cambrian‐Ordovician sandstone aquifer system of northeastern Illinois to analyze flow within its 275 m deep cone of depression. Potentiometric surfaces were developed using static heads from production wells regardless of open interval; hence assuming no vertical head difference. This assumption was tested against steady‐state, head‐specified models of each sandstone strata for 1980 and 2014. The results indicate that the original conceptual model was appropriate in 1980 but not 2014, where a vertical head difference had developed at the center of the cone of depression. For earlier years, when the head difference was minimal, the transient head‐specified model compared well with a traditional, flow‐specified model. In later years, the transient head‐specified model overestimated removal of water from storage. MODFLOW facilitates the development of a time‐series of potentiometric surfaces and can easily be modified to test the impacts of different conceptual models, such as assumptions on vertical head differences. For this study of a deep confined aquifer, MODFLOW also offers advantages in generating potentiometric surfaces and flow fields over statistical interpolation techniques, although future research is needed to assess its performance in other settings.     

Application of a watershed runoff model to North-east Pond River,Newfoundland: to study water balance and hydrological characteristics owing to atmospheric change

The hydrological sensitivities to long-term climate change of a watershed in Eastern Canada were analysed using a deterministic watershed runoff model developed to simulate watershed acidification. This model was modified to study atmospheric change effects in the watershed. Water balance modelling techniques, modified for assessing climate effects, were developed and tested for a watershed using atmospheric change scenarios from both state of the art general circulation models and a series of hypothetical scenarios. The model computed daily surface, inter- and groundwater flows from the watershed. The moisture, infiltration and recharge rate are also computed in the soil reservoirs. The thirty years of simulated data can be used to evaluate the effects of climatic change on soil moisture, recharge rate and surface and subsurface flow systems. The interaction between surface and subsurface water is discussed in relation to climate change. These hydrological results raise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficulties and have significant implications for future water resource planning and management. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A low‐dimensional hillslope‐based catchment model for layered groundwater flow

Despite the strong interaction between surface and subsurface waters, groundwater flow representation is often oversimplified in hydrological models. For instance, the interplay between local or shallow aquifers and deeper regional‐scale aquifers is typically neglected. In this work, a novel hillslope‐based catchment model for the simulation of combined shallow and deep groundwater flow is presented. The model consists of the hillslope‐storage Boussinesq (hsB) model representing shallow groundwater flow and an analytic element (AE) model representing deep regional groundwater flow. The component models are iteratively coupled via a leakage term based on Darcy's law, representing delayed recharge to the regional aquifer through a low conductivity layer. Simulations on synthetic single hillslopes and on a two‐hillslope open‐book catchment are presented, and the results are compared against a benchmark three‐dimensional Richards equation model. The impact of hydraulic conductivity, hillslope plan geometry (uniform, convergent, divergent), and hillslope inclination (0.2%, 5%, and 30%) under drainage and recharge conditions are examined. On the single hillslopes, good matches for heads, hydrographs, and exchange fluxes are generally obtained, with the most significant differences in outflows and heads observed for the 30% slope and for hillslopes with convergent geometry. On the open‐book catchment, cumulative outflows are overestimated by 1–4%. Heads in the confined and unconfined aquifers are adequately reproduced throughout the catchment, whereas exchange fluxes are found to be very sensitive to the hillslope drainable porosity. The new model is highly efficient computationally compared to the benchmark model. The coupled hsB/AE model represents an alternative to commonly used groundwater flow representations in hydrological models, of particular appeal when surface–subsurface exchanges, local aquifer–regional aquifer interactions, and low flows play a key role in a watershed's dynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Patterns and Rates of Ground-Water Flow on Long Island, New York

Increased ground-water contamination from human activities on Long Island has prompted studies to define the pattern and rate of ground-water movement. A two-dimensional, fine-mesh, finite-element model consisting of 11,969 nodes and 22,880 elements was constructed to represent ground-water flow along a north-south section through central Long Island. The model represents average hydrologic conditions within a corridor approximately 15 miles wide. The model solves discrete approximations of both the potential and stream functions. The resulting flownet depicts flow paths and defines the vertical distribution of flow within the section. Ground-water flow rates decrease with depth. Sixty-two percent of the water flows no deeper than the upper glacial (water-table) aquifer, 38 percent enters the underlying Magothy aquifer, and only 3.1 percent enters the Lloyd aquifer. The limiting streamlines for flow to the Magothy and Lloyd aquifers indicate that aquifer recharge areas are narrow east-west bands through the center of the island. The recharge area of the Magothy aquifer is only 5.4 miles wide; that of the Lloyd aquifer is less than 0.5 miles. The distribution of ground-water traveltime and a flownet are calculated from model results; both are useful in the investigation of contaminant transport or the chemical evolution of ground water within the flow system. A major discontinuity in traveltime occurs across the streamline which separates the flow subsystems of the two confined aquifers. Water that reaches the Lloyd aquifer attains traveltimes as high as 10,000 years, whereas water that has not penetrated deeper than the Magothy aquifer attains traveltimes of only 2,000 years. The finite-element approach used in this study is particularly suited to ground-water systems that have complex hydrostratigraphy and cross-sectional symmetry.     

An Open,Object-Based Framework for Generating Anisotropy in Sedimentary Subsurface Models

The spatial distribution of hydraulic properties in the subsurface controls groundwater flow and solute transport. However, many approaches to modeling these distributions do not produce geologically realistic results and/or do not model the anisotropy of hydraulic conductivity caused by bedding structures in sedimentary deposits. We have developed a flexible object-based package for simulating hydraulic properties in the subsurface—the Hydrogeological Virtual Realities (HyVR) simulation package. This implements a hierarchical modeling framework that takes into account geological rules about stratigraphic bounding surfaces and the geometry of specific sedimentary structures to generate realistic aquifer models, including full hydraulic-conductivity tensors. The HyVR simulation package can create outputs suitable for standard groundwater modeling tools (e.g., MODFLOW), is written in Python, an open-source programming language, and is openly available at an online repository. This paper presents an overview of the underlying modeling principles and computational methods, as well as an example simulation based on the Macrodispersion Experiment site in Columbus, Mississippi. Our simulation package can currently simulate porous media that mimic geological conceptual models in fluvial depositional environments, and that include fine-scale heterogeneity in distributed hydraulic parameter fields. The simulation results allow qualitative geological conceptual models to be converted into digital subsurface models that can be used in quantitative numerical flow-and-transport simulations, with the aim of improving our understanding of the influence of geological realism on groundwater flow and solute transport.     

Assessing titanium dioxide nanoparticles transport models by Bayesian uncertainty analysis

With the rapid growth of nanotechnology industry, nanomaterials as an emerging pollutant are gradually released into subsurface environments and become great concerns. Simulating the transport of nanomaterials in groundwater is an important approach to investigate and predict the impact of nanomaterials on subsurface environments. Currently, a number of transport models are used to simulate this process, and the outputs of these models could be inconsistent with each other due to conceptual model uncertainty. However, the performances of different models on simulating nanoparticles transport in groundwater are rarely assessed in Bayesian framework in previous researches, and these will be the primary objective of this study. A porous media column experiment is conducted to observe the transport of Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticles (nano-TiO₂). Ten typical transport models which consider different chemical reaction processes are used to simulate the transport of nano-TiO₂, and the observed nano-TiO₂ breakthrough curves data are used to calibrate these models. For each transport model, the parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and the DREAM_(ZS) algorithm is used to sample parameter probability space. Moreover, the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method is used to incorporate the conceptual model uncertainty arising from different chemical reaction based transport models. The results indicate that both two-sites and nonequilibrium sorption models can well reproduce the retention of nano-TiO₂ transport in porous media. The linear equilibrium sorption isotherm, first-order degradation, and mobile-immobile models fail to describe the nano-TiO₂ retention and transport. The BMA method could instead provide more reliable estimations of the predictive uncertainty compared to that using a single model.     

Quantifying uncertainty in rainfall–runoff models due to design losses using Monte Carlo simulation: a case study in New South Wales,Australia

With the potentially devastating consequences of flooding, it is crucial that uncertainties in the modelling process are quantified in flood simulations. In this paper, the impact of uncertainties in design losses on peak flow estimates is investigated. Simulations were carried out using a conceptual rainfall–runoff model called RORB in four catchments along the east coast of New South Wales, Australia. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate parameter uncertainty in design losses, associated with three loss models (initial loss–continuing loss, initial loss–proportional loss and soil water balance model). The results show that the uncertainty originating from each loss model differs and can be quite significant in some cases. The uncertainty in the initial loss–proportional loss model was found to be the highest, with estimates up to 2.2 times the peak flow, whilst the uncertainty in the soil water balance model was significantly less, with up to 60 % variability in peak flows for an annual exceedance probability of 0.02. Through applying Monte Carlo simulation a better understanding of the predicted flows is achieved, thus providing further support for planning and managing river systems.     

A modified subsurface stormflow model of hillsides in forest catchment

Subsurface flow plays an important role in forest catchment hydrological processes, for which a modified model is established in this paper. Firstly, by taking soil samples from Natural Preserve Forests of Changbai Mountain, two crucial parameters for subsurface flow, the saturated hydraulic conductivity and effective porosity, were measured in the laboratory. Secondly, submodels of the two parameters varying logarithmically with soil depth were established through regressive analysis. Then a modified subsurface stormflow model (Modified model) was founded by substituting the submodels into a storage–discharge model (Sloan's model), established by Sloan in 1983. Finally, to verify the Modified model, five rainfall events on a simulated hillside were carried out. The subsurface flow processes were simulated using the Modified model, Sloan's model and Robinson's model. The comparison of simulated subsurface stormflow processes using the three models respectively with measured ones showed that the Modified model obtained better accuracy for peak flow and total amount of subsurface stormflow than the other two models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.