毛乌素沙地天然臭柏种群生命表分析

为了探讨毛乌素沙地天然臭柏种群动态,在图克臭柏保护区内,进行了样方调查,用WinDENDROTM年轮分析系统测定臭柏树盘的年龄。调查数据经均滑技术处理后,以种群生命表及生存分析理论为基础,编制臭柏种群特定时间生命表,分析臭柏的死亡率、消失率、平均生命期望、存活曲线及生存函数曲线。结果表明：臭柏种群有两个死亡高峰期,第一个高峰期为Ⅰ龄级,属幼龄期,死亡率达94%;第二个高峰期从Ⅵ龄级开始,死亡率在27%～47%之间。臭柏种群的消失率与死亡率的变化趋势基本一致。平均生命期望在Ⅰ龄级时为0.82 a,Ⅱ龄级达到最大,为4.67 a, 说明这个时期臭柏的生命活动最旺盛,之后开始逐渐下降,最后降低为零。经指数函数方程Nx=Noe-bx和幂函数方程Nx=Nox-b对臭柏种群存活曲线做相关性检验,结果表明,其存活曲线更趋近于DeeveyⅢ型,种群的生长趋势属增长种群,即臭柏种群幼龄期死亡率高,之后的死亡率降低,而且在一定的水平下趋于稳定。臭柏种群的生存率单调下降,积累死亡率单调上升。死亡密度函数曲线的凸点与平均生命期望曲线的凹点相对应,二者呈互补形式。危险率与死亡率的变化趋势相吻合。说明引入生命表中的4个生存函数能较好地显示种群的动态变化,生存分析理论和生命表相结合能更好、更真实地反映种群的生存状况。     

The socio-spatial dynamics of extreme urban heat events: The case of heat-related deaths in Philadelphia

Heat is the number one weather-related cause of mortality in the United States; typically punctuated by extreme heat waves. This study examines the relationship between the spatial distribution of vulnerable populations, satellite-detected urban heat island (UHI) and heat-related mortality distributions during a 1993 extreme heat event in Philadelphia, PA. Geostatistical methods are used to compare spatial distributions of vulnerability and to determine concentration of mortality within surface UHI intensity levels. The results suggest the spatial distribution of urban poor is congruent with heat-related death. Additionally, deaths are concentrated in higher order surface UHI intensity levels. The findings suggest that surface UHI measures and population in poverty are important variables in spatially measuring risk from extreme heat events. Coupling surface UHI measures with socioeconomic indicators of vulnerability may enable creation of risk models with improved spatial specificity to assist public health professionals. This approach is demonstrated by developing a linear regression model of potential risk in Philadelphia for the 1993 extreme heat event.     

Aurora morphology in the dayside

Day-side aurora phenomena are examined by using TV image data obtained at Ny-Alesund in Svalbard, Godhavn in Greenland and Zhongshan Station,Antarctica. Results are summarized as follows. During the quiet period, in the pre-and post-noon sectors. (1) Weak arc (Sun-aligned arc), (2) Corona aurora and (3) Band aurora are observed in these stations. During disturbed period,Corona aurora and Band aurora are also observed in the pre- and post-noon sectors. However. bright discrete aurora. instead of weak arc (Sun-aligned arc). develops from thc night side oval in the dawn and dusk sectors. Pre-noon corona and post-noon band aurora are observed in the lower latitude as compared with the location of those auroras during the quiet period.     

Is Russia's demographic situation improving?

"Since the Russian economy recently has shown sings of stabilization, there now is evidence that demographic trends are beginning to improve somewhat. Although the population declined by 164,200, to 148.1 million at the beginning of 1996, the release of new statistical compendia by the Russian statistical agency (Goskomstat Rosii) in 1995 and early 1996 makes it possible to identify several positive trends.... Life expectancy increased for the first time since 1985. The infant mortality rate declined for the second year in a row. The crude death rate declined for the first time in a decade. The birth rate remained at about the same level for the third consecutive year. The rate of natural increase (births minus deaths), although still negative, recorded a moderate increase."     

小陇山国家级自然保护区油松种群更新及生存

以种群生命表及生存分析理论为基础,以林木径级结构代表年龄结构,采用分段匀滑技术,编制小陇山自然保护区油松种群特定时间生命表,绘制死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、存活曲线、生存函数曲线,分析种群数量动态特征,并对其年龄跟胸径进行线性回归。结果表明:1.油松种群年龄结构表现为稳定型。2.油松种群死亡率和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,存活曲线趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型。4个生存函数曲线表明,油松种群具有前期稳定、中后期锐减和末期衰退的特点。3.油松年龄与其胸径线性相关。     

The Social Geography of Childhood Mortality,Toronto, 1901

Urban geographers and historians have long recognized the relationship between cities and poor health, though few have documented this relationship for cities in the past. While trends, and national or regional variations, of mortality rates are well documented for Britain and Europe, the picture is less complete for North America. Through the use of household data aggregated to the neighborhood scale, this paper explores the spatial variation of childhood mortality (deaths under the age of five) in relation to the social geography of Toronto, Canada, in 1901. Examination of individual records illustrate that the traditional dichotomous relationship between suburban and inner-city areas, in terms of health status (mortality), did not exist in turn of the 20th century Toronto. Rather, inner-city slums and suburban fringe areas were found to be equally likely to have high levels of childhood mortality. Furthermore, the neighborhood spatial patterns of childhood mortality were more affected by the residential segregation of religious groups (e.g., Catholics and Jews) than the distribution of households by social class or the housing conditions in which the people lived.     

HINDU VARANASI

ABSTRACT. Representations of Hindu faith in the built environment and pilgrim activities in the city of Varanasi, India, are explored through an analysis of the sacred geography of the place, of pilgrim travel to the city and activities within it, and of the act of crossing over from life to death through cremation. The roles of reconciling what seem to be paradoxes or contradictions and of the transcendence of geographical scale in reinforcing faith are also examined.     

Geographical accessibility and Kentucky's heart-related hospital services

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are a leading cause of mortality in the US. Rates of mortality vary spatially and demographically, influenced not only by individual patient characteristics but also by levels of accessibility to hospital services and facilities. In 2000, Kentucky ranked third in the nation for heart-related deaths. The purpose of this paper is to assess geographical accessibility and service utilization related to ambulatory care sensitive CVDs in Kentucky. This study utilizes the Kentucky Hospital Discharge Database to evaluate service utilization and the Compressed Mortality File to examine mortality related to CVDs. A spatial statistical comparison of the geographical distribution of service usage and travel time to hospitals assists in assessing the relationship between accessibility and health. Our findings suggest that the distribution of utilization and mortality is geographically variable. People living in rural areas travel further to services; populations residing more than 45 min from health facilities are more likely to be socially and economically marginalized. Spatial clustering of high rates of hospital utilization occurs in areas with lower accessibility.     

Late Triassic initial subduction of the Bangong‐Nujiang Ocean beneath Qiangtang revealed: stratigraphic and geochronological evidence from Gaize,Tibet

Sedimentological and geochronological studies along a north–south traverse across the Bangong‐Nujiang suture zone (BNSZ) in Gaize, Tibet provide evidence for a Late Triassic–Jurassic accretionary wedge accreted to the south margin of Qiangtang. This wedge, preserved as the Mugagangri Group (MG), records evidence for the northward subduction of the Bangong‐Nujiang Ocean (BNO) beneath Qiangtang. The MG strata comprise two coarser intervals (lower olistostromes and upper conglomerates) intercalated within sandy turbidites, which are consistent with timing and forearc stratigraphy during subduction initiation predicted by geodynamic modelling. Following the model, the northward subduction of the BNO beneath Qiangtang and subsequent arc‐magmatism are inferred to have begun, respectively, at ca. 220 Ma and ca. 210 Ma, with respect to depositional ages constrained by youngest detrital‐zircon ages. The initiation of arc‐magmatism is also supported by provenance transition reflected by sandstone detrital modes and age patterns of detrital zircons. Previously, evidence for an incipient arc was lacking, but the timing of Late Triassic BNO subduction and related arc‐magmatism is coincident with an important Late Triassic magmatic event in central Qiangtang that probably represents the ‘missing’ arc. Other Qiangtang events, such as exhumation of the Qiangtang metamorphic belt as a source area, and development of the Late Triassic Nadigangri deposits and bimodal volcanism, are more easily explained in the tectonic context of early northward subduction of the BNO beneath Qiangtang, beginning at about 220 Ma.     

Comparing spatial distributions of infant mortality over time: Investigating the urban environment of Baltimore,Maryland in 1880 and 1920

Infant mortality is a sensitive indicator of urban environmental conditions, and investigating the geography of such an indicator provides insight into variables affecting public health in urban North America in 1880 and 1920. Geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial analysis now provide a means by which to view past infant mortality distributions from a new perspective, one not available at the time. This study makes use of data collected from the 1880 and 1920 Vital Statistics Death Records for Baltimore, Maryland - mapping each infant death to his or her place of residence. Previous work with the 1880 data indicates an uneven distribution of infant deaths with some degree of spatial clustering. The current study takes these findings a step further through the use of the local spatial autocorrelation statistic, Gi*, to identify the locations of clusters in one or both years. The aim of the comparison is to determine whether the location of infant mortality clusters remained the same over time indicating persistent environmental, and possibly demographic, challenges in certain neighborhoods. The data indicated hotspots of infant mortality in both years with persistence in the Fells Point area of Baltimore. The significant clusters appeared in neighborhoods with large African American and/or immigrant populations in both years. The hotspots in the primarily African American neighborhood were only significant in 1880 despite presenting some intriguing questions about what caused such a change, particular when the population in that part of the city did not change. This work offers insights into the spatial distribution of infant mortality in the past and clues regarding which parts of the city need additional investigation to better understand their social and environmental characteristics.     

A DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL METHOD OF STUDYING TREE MORTALITY PATTERNS

This study examines the use of dendrochronological crossdating to determine the dates of death of dead-standing coniferous trees in subalpine forests in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We cored approximately 800 dead-standing Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa [Hook.] Nutt.) in two stands and classified them into decay classes. We quantitatively and visually crossdated samples from the dead-standing trees against master chronologies derived from live trees of each species in each stand. The outermost ring on crossdated samples served as an estimate of the year in which a tree died. Seventy percent of the dead-standing trees crossdated successfully. The crossdating technique clearly identified a period of massive mortality of Engelmann spruce attributable to a spruce beetle infestation in the 1940s. This procedure effectively distinguishes between continuous and episodic patterns of tree mortality and compares the relative mortality rates of these coniferous species. Dendrochronological dating of tree deaths is a useful way of providing historical contexts for interpreting tree mortality data derived from short-term monitoring of permanent plots.     

中国中部六省预期寿命时序加密估算研究

年龄组死亡率是利用年龄分组人口数据计算预期寿命的关键参数,而非采样年份的统计年鉴中年龄分组死亡率缺失导致无法计算预期寿命。针对该问题,本文将人口普查数据与统计年鉴数据融合,首次提出一种基于拉格朗日插值的中国省级预期寿命时间序列加强密集度（时序加密）的算法,以解决非采样（即未进行人口普查或1%人口抽样调查）年份省级预期寿命的估算问题。以中国中部六省为例,在所选取年份省级预期寿命估算实验中,绝对精度表明年龄分组人口比例线性插值计算的精度明显高于人口比例抛物线插值和直接插值算法的精度,故为推荐算法。本研究为高时间分辨率下省级预期寿命值的获取提供了一个新的可行思路,为分省较精确地进行预期寿命趋势分析奠定基础。     

WEATHER,GEOGRAPHY, AND VEHICLE‐RELATED HYPERTHERMIA IN CHILDREN*

Vehicle‐related hyperthermia is an unfortunate tragedy that leads to the accidental deaths of children each year. This research utilizes the most extensive dataset of child vehicle‐related hyperthermia deaths in the United States, including 414 deaths between 1998 and 2008. Deaths follow a seasonal pattern, with a peak in July and no deaths in December or January. Also, deaths occurred over a wide range of temperature and radiation levels and across virtually all regions, although most of them took place across the southern United States. In particular, the Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, and Las Vegas metropolitan areas had the greatest number of deaths. We utilize our vehicle hyperthermia index (vhi ) to compare expected deaths versus actual deaths in a metropolitan area, based on the number of children in the area who are under the age of five and on the frequency of hot days in the area. The vhi indicates that the Memphis, West Palm Beach‐Boca Raton, and Las Vegas metropolitan areas are the most dangerous places for vehicle‐related hyperthermia. We conclude by discussing several recommendations with public health policy implications.     

Weather, geography, and vehicle-related hyperthermia in children

Vehicle-related hyperthermia is an unfortunate tragedy that leads to the accidental deaths of children each year. This research utilizes the most extensive dataset of child vehicle-related hyperthermia deaths in the United States, including 414 deaths between 1998 and 2008. Deaths follow a seasonal pattern, with a peak in July and no deaths in December or January. Also, deaths occurred over a wide range of temperature and radiation levels and across virtually all regions, although most of them took place across the southern United States. In particular, the Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, and Las Vegas metropolitan areas had the greatest number of deaths. We utilize our vehicle hyperthermia index (vhi) to compare expected deaths versus actual deaths in a metropolitan area, based on the number of children in the area who are under the age of five and on the frequency of hot days in the area. The vhi indicates that the Memphis, West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, and Las Vegas metropolitan areas are the most dangerous places for vehicle-related hyperthermia. We conclude by discussing several recommendations with public health policy implications.     

河南省肺癌空间分布格局及环境因素影响

肺癌是最常见的恶性肿瘤之一,也是主要的肿瘤死因,河南省肺癌发病率和死亡率常年居恶性肿瘤首位,研究肺癌的空间分布格局及其与环境因子的关系对肺癌的相关防控工作意义重大。本文以2016—2018年河南省肺癌发病数据为研究对象,使用空间自相关分析方法研究河南省肺癌的空间分布格局,基于地理探测器量化各个环境因子及其两两交互作用对肺癌发病率的解释力。结果表明：空间上肺癌具有明显的集聚特征,高发区集中分布于豫中、豫东和豫南的平原和盆地地区。在所选的12种环境因子中,PM_2.5浓度、O₃浓度、年均风速、采矿业从业人员占比、人均GDP具有更高的决定力,人均GDP和医护人员占比则对多种要素的决定力均具有明显的非线性增强的作用。研究结果可以为河南省肺癌发病机理研究和相关防治工作提供科学支撑。     

A Spatial Variant of the Basic Reproduction Number for the New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1878

A spatial variant of the basic reproduction number (R₀), here defined as the number of subsequent deaths attributed to an initial mortality, can be used to identify geographic variation within an epidemic. A spatial R₀ was calculated at the neighborhood level, here defined by a 50‐m buffer surrounding an index case, for mortality data from the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans. The highest number of secondary mortalities linked to a neighborhood index case was twelve, with a further eighty‐seven extrapolated morbidity cases. Results also highlight the importance of multideath residences and cultural contacts in neighborhood‐level disease spread.     

A new look at population change and regional development in Aotearoa New Zealand

In New Zealand, population change is interlinked with regional development. Places growing in population attract regional investment, while regional investment—or lack thereof—can change migration patterns. However, to determine the appropriate response to population change for a community, it is important to understand that population change involves much more than “just” migration. Specifically, it involves interactions between the three components of population change: natural change (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal) and population ageing (changing cohort size). For example, migration can be negative, but growth can be positive due to underlying natural increase or growth in cohort size. Responses need to differ, depending on these drivers. The goal of this article is to provide new insights into these interactions using data for 275 cities, towns and rural centres (hereafter “urban places”) in New Zealand for the period 1976 to 2013. The results show that natural change has been consistently positive for most urban places up to the present, although projections indicate that in the future this component will become negative across much of the country. At the same time, net migration shows considerable spatial variation, not only in terms of volume, but also direction (negative or positive), which differs markedly by age. A net gain of people of retirement age can offset a net loss of young adults to deliver overall growth, and vice‐versa, but the two have very different implications for longer term growth. An analysis of the drivers of net migration using GIS and machine learning techniques provides an indication of the importance of economic conditions (land‐use and access to markets), lifestyle, access to essential services (hospitals and education) and their interaction with age in regional change. The results show that population age is the best predictor of migration. Younger people are moving to cities for tertiary education and work and older people near or in retirement are moving to smaller lifestyle towns but also want to be close to amenities such as hospitals and international airports. The research also shows that natural lifestyle characteristics (landscape and climate), in combination with age are just as important as economic conditions for understanding migration. Regional development, such as infrastructure that helps business (ports and services) is important for the working age population but not necessarily the retirement age group. When regional development, age/life‐cycle stage and lifestyle come together, such as in Queenstown and Tauranga, net migration gain is high.     

地震灾害死亡人口快速评估方法对比研究

中国是世界上地震活动最为频繁的国家之一,属于地震多发区。在收集分析国内外关于地震灾害死亡人口评估模型的基础上,选取10种模型以2000年以来中国典型地震灾害为案例验证其适用性。结果表明：① 对于5.7级（含）以下地震,10种模型的评估结果基本都在合理范围内,可采用各评估结果的区间值来支撑应急决策;5.7~6.6级（含）地震,10种评估方法得到的结果表现出不同程度的偏差,可采用多数评估结果指向的死亡人口数量级来支撑应急决策;6.6级以上地震,则只能采用有特定适用范围的基于结构易损性的评估结果来支撑应急决策,且也存在较大的不确定性。② 从地震灾害人员伤亡动态评估方法、地震—地质灾害死亡人口快速评估方法和快速评估软件系统方面进行了相关讨论。此研究可为地震灾害死亡人口快速评估模型的改进与发展提供借鉴。     

Infant mortality in the Indian slums: case studies of Calcutta metropolis and Raipur city

This study was conducted to examine the levels of infant mortality, its causes and determinants, and its differentials in selected slums of Calcutta Metropolis and Raipur in India. Data were gathered through interview of 2142 mothers who had experienced a live birth and/or death of an infant within the year prior to the survey. The study found that although the infant mortality rate (IMR) in the slums was quite high, it was lower compared to rural India. The study?s finding underlines the importance of "urban residence" as a primary controlling factor of infant mortality. IMR was 1.5 times higher in the slums of Calcutta than in Raipur, indicating that infant death is far worse in the metropolis than in smaller cities. Although a number of individual-, household-, and slum-level factors played an explanatory role in infant mortality, differences in neighborhood environment contributed most significantly to the infant mortality differentials in the two slums. This study also found that mere literacy or low level of education is not an effective depressant of infant mortality.     

安徽省跨国拐卖妇女犯罪的时空分异与形成机制

基于“中国裁判文书网”获取的2008―2022年跨国拐入安徽省的拐卖妇女犯罪案例数据,综合运用空间分析等方法,分析安徽省跨国拐卖妇女犯罪的群体特征、时空分异和形成机制。结果表明：1）群体特征差异显著,其中作案人以31～50岁的青壮年男性为主,文化水平较低,且以汉族、苗族居多;被害人主要来自越南,且以介绍工作赚钱为由被拐骗为主,案发后多被遣返原籍或自愿留下;收买人主要为适婚年龄的单身男性及其父母,文化水平多为初中及以下。2）时间演变上,安徽省跨国拐卖妇女犯罪整体呈“峰”型变化趋势,经历波动低发—起伏增长—急速回落3个阶段,发生态势主要受人口政策、打拐力度、网站平台发展等因素的影响。3）空间分布上,拐出地主要为越、缅、柬、老4国和云南、广东、安徽等省份;中转省呈弧状分布,中转市“邻界”特征显著;拐入地集中在皖北和皖中,其中拐入市呈“南北平行双弧”向东辐射扩散,拐入县则呈皖北散状点型与皖南“抱团式”的差异空间格局,地理邻近选择倾向明显,且拐入县呈“单片―扩散―汇聚”的热点变化趋势;拐卖路径上,形成“越南―云南省文山州―马鞍山市含山县”和“柬埔寨―江西省景德镇市―合肥市庐江县”等主要路径,呈现...