Integrating a fuzzy <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>-means classification and a Bayesian approach for spatial prediction of landslide hazard

A robust method for spatial prediction of landslide hazard in roaded and roadless areas of forest is described. The method is based on assigning digital terrain attributes into continuous landform classes. The continuous landform classification is achieved by applying a fuzzy k-means approach to a watershed scale area before the classification is extrapolated to a broader region. The extrapolated fuzzy landform classes and datasets of road-related and non road-related landslides are then combined in a geographic information system (GIS) for the exploration of predictive correlations and model development. In particular, a Bayesian probabilistic modeling approach is illustrated using a case study of the Clearwater National Forest (CNF) in central Idaho, which experienced significant and widespread landslide events in recent years. The computed landslide hazard potential is presented on probabilistic maps for roaded and roadless areas. The maps can be used as a decision support tool in forest planning involving the maintenance, obliteration or development of new forest roads in steep mountainous terrain.     

GIS-based ordered weighted averaging and Dempster–Shafer methods for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Urmia Lake Basin,Iran

In this paper, GIS-based ordered weighted averaging (OWA) is applied to landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) for the Urmia Lake Basin in northwest Iran. Nine landslide causal factors were used, whereby the respective parameters were extracted from an associated spatial database. These factors were evaluated, and then the respective factor weight and class weight were assigned to each of the associated factors using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A landslide susceptibility map was produced based on OWA multicriteria decision analysis. In order to validate the result, the outcome of the OWA method was qualitatively evaluated based on an existing inventory of known landslides. Correspondingly, an uncertainty analysis was carried out using the Dempster–Shafer theory. Based on the results, very strong support was determined for the high susceptibility category of the landslide susceptibility map, while strong support was received for the areas with moderate susceptibility. In this paper, we discuss in which respect these results are useful for an improved understanding of the effectiveness of OWA in LSM, and how the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.     

Spatial Prediction of Landslide Hazard Using Logistic Regression and ROC Analysis

An empirical modeling of road related and non‐road related landslide hazard for a large geographical area using logistic regression in tandem with signal detection theory is presented. This modeling was developed using geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data, and was implemented on the Clearwater National Forest in central Idaho. The approach is based on explicit and quantitative environmental correlations between observed landslide occurrences, climate, parent material, and environmental attributes while the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are used as a measure of performance of a predictive rule. The modeling results suggest that development of two independent models for road related and non‐road related landslide hazard was necessary because spatial prediction and predictor variables were different for these models. The probabilistic models of landslide potential may be used as a decision support tool in forest planning involving the maintenance, obliteration or development of new forest roads in steep mountainous terrain.     

High resolution multisensor fusion of SAR,optical and LiDAR data based on crisp vs. fuzzy and feature vs. decision ensemble systems

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data are of high interest for different applications in remote sensing specially land cover classification. SAR imaging is independent of solar illumination and weather conditions. It can even penetrate some of the Earth’s surface materials to return information about subsurface features. However, the response of radar is more a function of geometry and structure than a surface reflection occurs in optical images. In addition, the backscatter of objects in the microwave range depends on the frequency of the band used, and the grey values in SAR images are different from the usual assumption of the spectral reflectance of the Earth’s surface. Consequently, SAR imaging is often used as a complementary technique to traditional optical remote sensing. This study presents different ensemble systems for multisensor fusion of SAR, multispectral and LiDAR data. First, in decision ensemble system, after extraction and selection of proper features from each data, crisp SVM (Support Vector Machine) and Fuzzy KNN (K Nearest Neighbor) are utilized on each feature space. Finally Bayesian Theory is applied to fuse SVMs when Decision Template (DT) and Dempster Shafer (DS) are applied as fuzzy decision fusion methods on KNNs. Second, in feature ensemble system, features from all data are applied on a cube. Then classifications were performed by SVM and FKNN as crisp and fuzzy decision making system respectively. A co-registered TerrraSAR-X, WorldView-2 and LiDAR data set form San Francisco of USA was available to examine the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that combinations of SAR data with different sensor improves classification results for most of the classes.     

An Evidential Reasoning Approach to Land Degradation Evaluation: Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence

This study explores the combination of expert and local knowledge for an integrated evaluation of land degradation in southern Mauritania. The expert knowledge uses two imprecise information and uncertainty management tools, Fuzzy measure theory and Dempster‐Shafer theory, mediated by expert knowledge, to integrate data collected using local knowledge. Fuzzy measures were found to be an efficient way of handling uncertainty of data compiled from local environmental knowledge and uniformly scaling all land degradation indicator variables to the same numerical range of values. The two techniques allowed scaling and integration of 13 evidential themes characterizing southern Mauritania. The cartographic outputs of this study show the potential of Fuzzy measure theory and Demspter‐Shafer theory as powerful complementary environmental resource management tools. On a scale of 0.0 to 1.0, the maps indicate the degree of degradation. The seriousness of land degradation decreases from settlements, roads, and watering points outward. As such, they constitute an excellent guide for resource allocation and rehablitation plans.     

Revealing Uncertainties in Land Change Modeling Using Probabilities

Land change models are frequently used to analyze current land change processes and possible future developments. However, the outcome of such models is accompanied by uncertainties that have to be taken into account in order to address their reliability for science and decision‐making. While a range of approaches exist that quantify the disagreement of land change maps, the quantification of uncertainty remains a major challenge. The aim of this article is therefore to reveal uncertainties in land change modeling by developing two measures: quantity uncertainty and allocation uncertainty. We choose a Bayesian Belief Network modeling approach for deforestation in Brazil to develop and apply the two measures to the resulting probability surface. Quantity uncertainty describes the uncertainty about the correct number of cells in a land change map assigned to different land change categories and allocation uncertainty expresses the uncertainty about the correct spatial placement of a cell in the land change map. Thus, uncertainty can be quantified even in those cases where no reference data exist. Informing about uncertainty in probabilistic outcomes may be an important asset when land change projections are being used in science and decision‐making and moreover, they may also be further evaluated for other spatial applications.     

Geospatial predictive modelling of the Neolithic archaeological sites of Magnesia in Greece

Abstract

Sources of heterogeneous geospatial data such as the elevation, the slope, the aspect, the water network and the current settlements related to the known Neolithic archaeological sites of Magnesia, are used in an attempt to confirm the existence and allow for the prediction of other archaeological sites using predictive modelling theory. Predictive modelling allows the update of the problem solving strategy as soon as new data layers are available. The Dempster–Shafer Theory also commonly referred to as evidential reasoning (ER) is used to compose probability maps of areas of archaeological interest from physiographical and historical data. The advantage of this theory is that the ignorance is quantified and used to compose the probability maps named as belief, plausibility and belief interval for the archaeological sites. The final digital probability maps show that the Neolithic archaeological sites can be detected in the prefecture of Magnesia. This research study forms a methodological tool for the prediction of new archaeological sites in other areas of archaeological interest according to the physiographical and historical characteristics of the archaeological period being examined. It also contributes to the digital earth modelling and archaeological site protection, one of the most critical and challenging global initiatives.     

Sensing Sprawl: Towards the Monitoring of Urban Expansion Using Dempster‐Shafer Theory

Abstract

The outward expansion of cities in the United States has been a source of concern and policy debate for well over forty years. This sprawling urban landscape has been cited as a contributing factor behind the loss of open space, environmental damage and increased congestion. To better understand urban expansion, monitoring programs are required to facilitate the systematic observation of urban expansion, and to provide critical information in order to adjust urban development policies. Monitoring the urban landscape has been a major application focus of satellite remote sensing technologies. Yet, research has shown that the complexity of the urban landscape frustrates simple characterization of cumulative land cover processes such as sprawl. In this paper an approach to the remote detection and characterization of sprawl is introduced based on the use of Dempster‐Shafer Theory of Evidence. Functioning as a soft‐classification algorithm, Demptster‐Shafer Theory offers a unique solution to the mapping problem when evidence of class structure in underscored by uncertainty. Through the use of this technique it was possible to model uncertainty based on the concept of belief. This conceptualization was instrumental in deciphering the complexities of urban land cover arrangements and offered an alternative logic which enhanced delineation of subtle changes in land cover indicative of sprawl.     

A GIS-based comparative study of Dempster-Shafer,logistic regression and artificial neural network models for landslide susceptibility mapping

The main aim of present study is to compare three GIS-based models, namely Dempster–Shafer (DS), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Shangzhou District of Shangluo City, Shaanxi Province, China. At First, landslide locations were identified by aerial photographs and supported by field surveys, and a total of 145 landslide locations were mapped in the study area. Subsequently, the landslide inventory was randomly divided into two parts (70/30) using Hawths Tools in ArcGIS 10.0 for training and validation purposes, respectively. In the present study, 14 landslide conditioning factors such as altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, stream power index, plan curvature, profile curvature, lithology, rainfall, distance to rivers, distance to roads, distance to faults and normalized different vegetation index were used to detect the most susceptible areas. In the next step, landslide susceptible areas were mapped using the DS, LR and ANN models based on landslide conditioning factors. Finally, the accuracies of the landslide susceptibility maps produced from the three models were verified using the area under the curve (AUC). The validation results showed that the landslide susceptibility map generated by the ANN model has the highest training accuracy (73.19%), followed by the LR model (71.37%), and the DS model (66.42%). Similarly, the AUC plot for prediction accuracy presents that ANN model has the highest accuracy (69.62%), followed by the LR model (68.94%), and the DS model (61.39%). According to the validation results of the AUC curves, the map produced by these models exhibits the satisfactory properties.     

Approaches for delineating landslide hazard areas using different training sites in an advanced artificial neural network model

The current paper presents landslide hazard analysis around the Cameron area, Malaysia, using advanced artificial neural networks with the help of Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Landslide locations were determined in the study area by interpretation of aerial photographs and from field investigations. Topographical and geological data as well as satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. Ten factors were selected for landslide hazard including: 1) factors related to topography as slope, aspect, and curvature; 2) factors related to geology as lithology and distance from lineament; 3) factors related to drainage as distance from drainage; and 4) factors extracted from TM satellite images as land cover and the vegetation index value. An advanced artificial neural network model has been used to analyze these factors in order to establish the landslide hazard map. The back-propagation training method has been used for the selection of the five different random training sites in order to calculate the factor’s weight and then the landslide hazard indices were computed for each of the five hazard maps. Finally, the landslide hazard maps (five cases) were prepared using GIS tools. Results of the landslides hazard maps have been verified using landslide test locations that were not used during the training phase of the neural network. Our findings of verification results show an accuracy of 69%, 75%, 70%, 83% and 86% for training sites 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. GIS data was used to efficiently analyze the large volume of data, and the artificial neural network proved to be an effective tool for landslide hazard analysis. The verification results showed sufficient agreement between the presumptive hazard map and the existing data on landslide areas.     

Approaches for delineating landslide hazard areas using different training sites in an advanced artificial neural network model

The current paper presents landslide hazard analysis around the Cameron area, Malaysia, using advanced artificial neural networks with the help of Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Landslide locations were determined in the study area by interpretation of aerial photographs and from field investigations. Topographical and geological data as well as satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. Ten factors were selected for landslide hazard including: 1) factors related to topography as slope, aspect, and curvature; 2) factors related to geology as lithology and distance from lineament; 3) factors related to drainage as distance from drainage; and 4) factors extracted from TM satellite images as land cover and the vegetation index value. An advanced artificial neural network model has been used to analyze these factors in order to establish the landslide hazard map. The back-propagation training method has been used for the selection of the five different random training sites in order to calculate the factor’s weight and then the landslide hazard indices were computed for each of the five hazard maps. Finally, the landslide hazard maps (five cases) were prepared using GIS tools. Results of the landslides hazard maps have been verified using landslide test locations that were not used during the training phase of the neural network. Our findings of verification results show an accuracy of 69%, 75%, 70%, 83% and 86% for training sites 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. GIS data was used to efficiently analyze the large volume of data, and the artificial neural network proved to be an effective tool for landslide hazard analysis. The verification results showed sufficient agreement between the presumptive hazard map and the existing data on landslide areas.     

A New Combined Assessment of Mixed Uncertainty in Spatial Models: Conceptualization and Implementation

Uncertainty quantification is not often performed in spatial modeling applications, especially when there is a mixture of probabilistic and non‐probabilistic uncertainties. Furthermore, the effect of positional uncertainty is often not assessed, despite its relevance to geographical applications. Although there has been much work in investigating the aforementioned types of uncertainty in isolation, combined approaches have not been much researched. This has resulted in a lack of tools for conducting mixed uncertainty analyses that include positional uncertainty. This research addresses the issue by first presenting a new, flexible, simulation‐oriented conceptualization of positional uncertainty in geographic objects called F‐Objects. F‐Objects accommodates various representations of uncertainty, while remaining conceptually simple. Second, a new Python‐based framework is introduced, termed Wiggly and capable of conducting mixed uncertainty propagation using fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation (FMCS). FMCS combines both traditional Monte Carlo with fuzzy analysis in a so‐called hybrid approach. F‐Objects is implemented within the Wiggly framework, resulting in a tool capable of considering any combination of: (1) probabilistic variables; (2) fuzzy variables; and (3) positional uncertainty of objects (probabilistic/fuzzy). Finally, a realistic GIS‐based groundwater contamination problem demonstrates how F‐Objects and Wiggly can be used to assess the effect of positional uncertainty.     

GIS中属性不确定性的处理方法及其发展

属性数据的不确定直接影响决策的准确性和可靠性,特别是对侧重于属性分析的领域,在研究属性不确定性的基础上,分析了GIS中的主要处理方法及其研究进展,具体地就基于GIS的模型,概率论及数理统计学,模糊集合,云理论,粗集等方法及进展进行讨论.     

Parameter evaluation and optimization for multi-resolution segmentation in object-based shadow detection using very high resolution imagery

Object-based shadow detection in urban areas is an important topic in very high resolution remote sensing image processing. Multi-resolution segmentation (MRS) is an effective segmentation method, and is used for object-based shadow detection. However, several input parameters within MRS may result in unstable performance for final shadow detection; thus, the evaluation and optimization for the parameters upon the final shadow detection accuracy cannot be overlooked. In this paper, the three parameters in MRS (scale s, weight of colour w_color and weight of compactness w_compact) upon the final result of a recently proposed method, object-based shadow detection with Dempster–Shafer theory, were evaluated and optimized by sensitivity analysis and Taguchi’s method with three experimental data. Experiments show that scale s is the most sensitive parameter among the three parameters within MRS. More importantly, according to the Taguchi’s method theory, there is a very significant interaction effect between s and w_color, which cannot be overlooked. The shadow detection accuracy yielded by the optimum parameter combination in consideration of the interaction effect is higher than that only optimized by covering the main effect of single parameter in most cases.     

高分一号汶川极震区滑坡提取研究

选择汶川地震极震区的高分一号卫星影像,通过面向对象的分析技术提取滑坡信息;采用多尺度分割算法,结合高分影像和滑坡特点将以往经验式参数选取方法进行优化,分析极震区滑坡的特征,选择合适的特征参数,构建分类规则,实现滑坡的识别与提取。滑坡灾害信息的提取结果采用野外实际调查的滑坡点进行精度评价,滑坡提取总精度为84%,表明利用高分一号高分辨率卫星数据可以较好地提取滑坡灾害信息,基本满足滑坡灾害识别的要求。     

基于高分遥感的金沙江流域滑坡识别——以巴塘县王大龙村为例

金沙江流域因两岸地势陡峭、软弱岩层发育、降雨集中等,使得流域内滑坡灾害分布密集。高分辨率遥感是滑坡识别的重要手段,但通过目视解译法开展的大范围滑坡灾害识别,具有工作量大、效率低的特点。针对此问题,本文采用基于面向对象的分类方法,提出了利用滑坡灾害的光谱、形状、空间等特征进行区域内滑坡灾害的快速识别。同时,选取金沙江流域巴塘县王大龙村区段进行了滑坡识别提取试验,区域内利用面向对象分类方法识别出滑坡18处,其中12处与目视解译结果相同,一致性为75%;发现3处目视解译未识别出的隐蔽性滑坡。结果表明,该方法识别效果较好,可为后续的金沙江流域乃至川藏铁路沿线的大范围滑坡识别提取及滑坡编目工作提供参考。     

Landslide Hazard Assessment Using Random SubSpace Fuzzy Rules Based Classifier Ensemble and Probability Analysis of Rainfall Data: A Case Study at Mu Cang Chai District,Yen Bai Province (Viet Nam)

Landslide hazard assessment at the Mu Cang Chai district; Yen Bai province (Viet Nam) has been done using Random SubSpace fuzzy rules based Classifier Ensemble (RSSCE) method and probability analysis of rainfall data. RSSCE which is a novel classifier ensemble method has been applied to predict spatially landslide occurrences in the area. Prediction of temporally landslide occurrences in the present study has been done using rainfall data for the period 2008–2013. A total of fifteen landslide influencing factors namely slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, elevation, land use, lithology, rainfall, distance to faults, fault density, distance to roads, road density, distance to rivers, and river density have been utilized. The result of the analysis shows that RSSCE and probability analysis of rainfall data are promising methods for landslide hazard assessment. Finally, landslide hazard map has been generated by integrating spatial prediction and temporal probability analysis of landslides for the land use planning and landslide hazard management.     

Integrated Hazards Mapping Tool

The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 formally establishes a national program for pre‐disaster mitigation. As part of the mitigation planning effort, state and local governments are required to perform assessments of hazards vulnerability, including the development of multi‐hazard maps. However, the number of communities possessing the technology, expertise, and time to create multi‐hazard vulnerability maps is limited due to technical and resource constraints. The use of Internet mapping technology has the potential to overcome these hurdles because it does not require users to possess a high level of GIS expertise or costly software, and it standardizes the vulnerability mapping approach. This article describes the Integrated Hazards Assessment Tool, a web‐based multi‐hazard vulnerability mapping application for local and state hazard mitigation practitioners in the state of South Carolina. The initial findings suggest the application holds strong potential as a viable decision support tool for hazard mitigation planning.     

基于GIS的西攀高速公路沿线滑坡灾害管理

滑坡是西攀高速公路主要的地质灾害之一,本文采用GIS技术建立了西攀高速公路沿线滑坡灾害管理系统,提高了滑坡灾害的管理效率。详细讨论了各种滑坡灾害专题制图和滑坡体三维可视化建模的过程和方法。这些是滑坡治理过程中重要的非工程措施,也为滑坡治理的工程措施的优化提供决策依据。     

Application of frequency ratio,weights of evidence and evidential belief function models in landslide susceptibility mapping

The landslide hazard occurred in Taibai County has the characteristics of the typical landslides in mountain hinterland. The slopes mainly consist of residual sediments and locate along the highway. Most of them are in the less stable state and in high risk during rainfall in flood season especially. The main purpose of this paper is to produce landslide susceptibility maps for Taibai County (China). In the first stage, a landslide inventory map and the input layers of the landslide conditioning factors were prepared in the geographic information system supported by field investigations and remote sensing data. The landslides conditioning factors considered for the study area were slope angle, altitude, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, normalized difference vegetation index, lithological unit, rainfall and land use. Subsequently, the thematic data layers of conditioning factors were integrated by frequency ratio (FR), weights of evidence (WOE) and evidential belief function (EBF) models. As a result, landslide susceptibility maps were obtained. In order to compare the predictive ability of these three models, a validation procedure was conducted. The curves of cumulative area percentage of ordered index values vs. the cumulative percentage of landslide numbers were plotted and the values of area under the curve (AUC) were calculated. The predictive ability was characterized by the AUC values and it indicates that all these models considered have relatively similar and high accuracies. The success rate of FR, WOE and EBF models was 0.9161, 0.9132 and 0.9129, while the prediction rate of the three models was 0.9061, 0.9052 and 0.9007, respectively. Considering the accuracy and simplicity comprehensively, the FR model is the optimum method. These landslide susceptibility maps can be used for preliminary land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.