Long-term implications of new U.S. gas estimates

The US Geological Survey’s 1995 estimates of domestic undiscovered plus undeveloped natural gas nearly tripled quantities estimated in its 1989 Assessment. Much of the increase came from selected unconventional resources assessed using the paradigm of continuous-type accumulations. These include such seemingly unrelated “unconventional” gas occurrences as “tight gas,” coalbed gas, gas in shales, and deep basin-center gas. Though only a small fraction of the assessed 352 trillion cubic feet is now economic, the quantity is nevertheless significant. Moreover, the lowest cost resources are close to major gas markets where competing conventional gas is modest. With continued technological improvements these resources can contribute significantly to future U.S. gas supply, even without subsidies     

A Depletion Protocol for Non-Renewable Natural Resources: Australia as an Example

This paper examines the implications of statements by Australia’s Minister of… Resources that Australia’s exports of coal are growing rapidly and that Australia’s coal will last “110 years at current rates of production.” If one assumes that coal production P(t), follows a Gaussian curve (similar to a Hubbert curve) one can construct a family of Gaussian curves showing possible future paths of P(t) which are consistent with the cited “110 years.” Each curve reaches a maximum after which P(t) declines toward zero. Knowledge of the present value of dP/dt allows one member of the family to be identified as the most probable future path of P(t). Families of curves and tabular data are presented for resource quantities that would last 50, 100 and 200 years “at current rates of production.” If, instead, Australia’s P(t) follows a declining exponential curve (exp(−kt)) with k = (1/110) per year, the stated quantity of coal will allow production to continue forever, with P(t) declining with a half life of 76 y. This and more rapidly declining exponential paths are the only paths that can be said to be sustainable. The envelope of the family of Gaussian curves divides the (P, t) plane into “allowed” and “forbidden” areas. The declining exponential curve divides the “allowed” area into an upper area that is “terminal” and a lower area that is “sustainable.” These facts, coupled with Australia’s expectations of rapid growth of its population, suggest that Australia’s present resource policies are “anti-sustainable” and that the people of Australia need to rethink their present policy of rapidly exporting their fossil fuels.     

Estimation of Coal Reserves for UCG in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin,Poland

One of the prospective methods of coal utilization, especially in case of coal resources which are not mineable by means of conventional methods, is underground coal gasification (UCG). This technology allows recovery of coal energy “in situ” and thus avoid the health and safety risks related to people which are inseparable from traditional coal extraction techniques. In Poland most mining areas are characterized by numerous coal beds where extraction was ceased on account of technical and economic reasons or safety issues. This article presents estimates of Polish hard coal resources, broken down into individual mines, that can constitute the basis of raw materials for the gasification process. Five mines, representing more than 4 thousand tons, appear to be UCG candidates.     

Wellsite,Laboratory, and Mathematical Techniques for Determining Sorbed Gas Content of Coals and Gas Shales Utilizing Well Cuttings

Drill cuttings can be used for desorption analyses but with more uncertainty than desorption analyses done with cores. Drill cuttings are not recommended to take the place of core, but in some circumstances, desorption work with cuttings can provide a timely and economic supplement to that of cores. The mixed lithologic nature of drill cuttings is primarily the source of uncertainty in their analysis for gas content, for it is unclear how to apportion the gas generated from both the coal and the dark-colored shale that is mixed in usually with the coal. In the Western Interior Basin Coal Basin in eastern Kansas (Pennsylvanian-age coals), dark-colored shales with normal (∼100 API units) gamma-ray levels seem to give off minimal amounts of gas on the order of less than five standard cubic feet per ton (scf/ton). In some cuttings analyses this rule of thumb for gas content of the shale is adequate for inferring the gas content of coals, but shales with high-gamma-ray values (>150 API units) may yield several times this amount of gas. The uncertainty in desorption analysis of drill cuttings can be depicted graphically on a diagram identified as a “lithologic component sensitivity analysis diagram.” Comparison of cuttings desorption results from nearby wells on this diagram, can sometimes yield an unique solution for the gas content of both a dark shale and coal mixed in a cuttings sample. A mathematical solution, based on equating the dry, ash-free gas-contents of the admixed coal and dark-colored shale, also yields results that are correlative to data from nearby cores.     

Water quantity-quality combined evaluation method for rivers＇ water requirements of the instream environment in dualistic water cycle： A case study of Liaohe River Basin

In this article the meaning of the quantity and quality of environmental flows of river in dualistic water cycle is discussed, and compared with the meaning of unitary water cycle. Based on the analysis of the relationship between environmental flows of river requirements, the efficiency of water resource usage, the consumption coefficient, and the concentration of waste water elimination, the water quantity and water quality calculation method of the environmental flows of river requirements in dualistic water cycle is developed, and the criteria for environmental flows of river requirements are established, and therefore the water quantity-quality combined evaluation of natural river flows requirements are realized Taking the Liaohe River as a model, the environmental flows of river requirements for Xiliao River, Dongliao River, mainstream Liaohe River, Huntai River and northeast rivers along the coasts of the Yellow and Bohai seas in unitary water cycle are calculated, each taking up 39.3%, 63.0%, 43.9%, 43.3% and 43.5% of runoff respectively. Evaluated according to Tennant recommended flow, the results show that： except Xiliao River is ＂median＂, the rest are all upon ＂good＂, the Dongliao River is even ＂very good＂. The corresponding results in dualistic water cycle are that, the proportion of natural flows for each river is 57.5%, 74.1%, 60.8%, 60.3% and 60.4%; while the combined evaluation results show that： considering ＂quantity＂, except Xiliao River, the rest rivers can all achieve the ＂quantity＂ criteria of the en- vironmental flows of river requirements, but if considering the aspect of ＂quality＂, only Dongliao River can reach the ＂quality＂ standard. By water quantity-quality combined evaluation method, only Dongliao River can achieve the criteria. So the water quality is the main factor that determines whether the environmental flows can meet the river ecosystem demands.     

Determination of Realistic and Statistical Value of the Information Gathered from Exploratory Drilling

Unlike other branches of geosciences, exploratory drilling has not been investigated within the framework of an information system; so, the expression “value of exploratory drilling information” (despite its common usage) is vague. This article presents a model for the evaluation of value of the information gathered from exploratory drilling after studying different mineral exploration and exploratory drilling systems within the framework of an “information system.” Although this model does not present the economic value of information, it is a suitable tool for comparing different drilling patterns. The model was verified on the basis of drilling data for the Gol-Gohar XIIA anomaly.     

Territorial justice: Criteria,principles of maintenance,experience in assessment

The concept of territorial justice is developed. The principles of ensuring it are formulated. The method is suggested for determining the regional dissonances between the manufacture of gross national product and income of the population. The method offers promise as a necessary coupling tool for identifying potential regions: “donors” and “recipients”.     

An oases dynamics model and its application in the Manas oasis

This study applies theories of systems and system dynamics to ecological economic systems in the oasis environment, with the intention of finding the basic characteristics of the oasis environment and its feedback structures. This study explores the inner mechanisms of economic development in the oasis environment and its relationship to policy variables. This model is applied to economic development in the Manas oasis of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. System dynamics method starts from studying feedback structure within the system study and then searches for the best solution through identifying the right “policy point” and through model simulation in the computer. It embodies the cream of “systems cybernetics theory”. This study is justified because the nature of the oasis system and the simulation results are scientifically sound and practically feasible.     

Fishing for diatoms: fish gut analysis reveals water quality changes over a 75-year period

Defining the reference state of some perturbed streams and rivers is challenging since their non-altered state is undocumented. Despite the near-absence of pristine sites in highly anthropogenic areas, information about aquatic communities that existed prior to human disturbance can be obtained from historic sources. Sediment coring is commonly used in paleolimnology to estimate past environmental conditions of lakes, but this technique is often not appropriate for studies of lotic systems. An alternative is to use diatom assemblages present in the guts of fish that were captured in the streams prior to significant human disturbance. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the biological integrity of several streams in Ontario and Québec during the early twentieth century based on “paleo” diatom assemblages extracted from the guts of fish stored in museums. The Eastern Canadian diatom index (IDEC: Indice Diatomées de l’Est du Canada) was used to evaluate the biological status of “paleo” and “modern” diatom assemblages. The IDEC shows the position of diatom assemblages on a general pollution gradient. The comparison of IDEC values calculated for the 1925–1948 and the 2003–2007 periods showed that several streams were severely polluted in the early 1900s. In general, present water quality has declined compared to the early 1900s. The biological integrity of only three of the 22 sites has increased. IDEC values were not influenced by the species of fish studied.     

The “Three-Component” Digital Prospecting Method: A New Approach for Mineral Resource Quantitative Prediction and Assessment

Stimulated by the exceeding progress of information technology, the development of mineral exploration has entered a new period of digitization and quantification. The “three components” approach of mineral prediction is suggested as a new approach to the “digital mineral prospecting,” which is based on the geoanomaly analysis, directed by the research on the diversity of mineralization and on the spectrum of mineral deposits. Close combination of these three aspects of quantitative study makes a new starting point to the digital prospecting. In this paper, the basic theories of the “three components” approach of mineral prediction are discussed. In addition, based on the new achievements in the studies on the prediction and assessment of solid minerals and gas–oil resources, we have centered our discussion on the thought of analysis of geoanomaly evolution and on the “5P” method for approaching the target area in the “three components” approach of mineral prediction.     

Resource taxation and sustainability: A CGE model of the Czech Republic

Resource use by a country is considered in the context of a production relationship. Resources include natural, produced, and human capital. The taxation of each of these resource groups has an impact on the efficient use of these inputs through changes in the relative prices. A computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Czech Republic is used to evaluate the impact that various revenue neutral tax structures have on the allocation of economic activity throughout the economy. A Hicksian welfare measure is used to determine the impact on society’s welfare of revenue neutral shifts in taxes. The results demonstrate that the change in the tax structure will result in a welfare improvement by as much as 5% for the Czech Republic. The results provide insight into the role that “getting the prices right” has on sustainability. Although the term “sustainable development” was first introduced in a report by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources in 1980 it did not gain significant notoriety until the Brundtland Commission report in 1987. For a more detailed discussion see Jamieson, 1998.     

Sustainable development and mine management

The sustainable development concept has generated a large body of literature. It has also divided economists into numerous schools of thought. The neoclassical, London, and other schools are painted in broad strokes in the first part of this paper. They debate the extent to which manufactured capital and “natural” capital are believed to be substitutes or complements in a macroeconomics context. The problem stems from the difficulty to measure “natural” capital. The second part of the paper looks at sustainable development in mining at the firm level. First, it is argued that the capital value of the mineral reserves can be maintained by discovering reserves or by saving part of the rent. Second, we show that mine manager actions can be induced to follow efficiency and equity principles when proper limits or constraints are imposed by the legislator. It is concluded that a set of indicators need to be defined and calibrated to ensure that the economic, environmental, and social limits imposed on the mine manager become a framework inside which he competes for the best interest of the firm.     

社会生态补偿标准测算方法(英文)

Ecological compensation is a hot subject in academic studies, and the determina-tion of the spatial allocation of compensation payments is a key point in the research of eco-logical compensation. There are two kinds of thoughts in the determination of regional spatial allocation at present: "evaluation of ecological construction cost" and "evaluation of ecosystem services value". This paper analyzes the relationships between social ecological compensation and regional socio-economic development, and establishes two econometric models with the data of 2007 from various provinces in China. Through these models, the impacts of geographical endowments on the regional socio-economic development in various provinces are analyzed from the social justice viewpoint and the concept of "equivalent value of geographical endowments" (EGE for short) is proposed. This paper analyzes the application prospect of EGE in the policy making of regional ecological compensation. The results showed that: (1) the implementation of social ecological compensation is not only an effective guarantee for each region to obtain the equal rights of survival, development and decent environment, but also an essential assurance to the coordinated, balanced and sustainable development among various regions; (2) the regional difference in geographical endowments is an important factor affecting the regional spatial variation of socio-economic development. Therefore, geographical endowments are important bases for the determination of the spatial allocation of compensation payments in social ecological compensation; (3) based on the EGE, the government can determine the spatial allocation of social ecological compensation scientifically, and avoid the "sweeping approach" phenomenon in the policy making process of ecological compensation.     

A Sustainable U.S. Energy Plan

This report gives guidance on what could be done to overcome the political stalemate that has long blocked the creation of a sustainable energy plan, leaving the United States vulnerable to oil imports while emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases. An overall energy policy is suggested for use by political leaders, along with specific goals on climate change and national security. This report proposes a timetable by which the climate change and national security goals should be accomplished. Converting these political goals into a cost-effective energy plan that would continue to get long-term political support would be the task of the technical community. A generic process is described which applies to all future energy systems and would give guidance to the technical community on how to create a mix of energy sources and conservation. This generic process is then tested on three possible energy futures. One energy future proposes that all of our electricity should come from renewable sources within 10 years. It is shown to be inadequate and would exacerbate environmental risks. The second possible energy future adds far more nuclear energy and coal plants with carbon capture and sequestration to the above renewable-only proposal. This second plan was a significant improvement over the all-renewable energy proposal, but does not address how transportation might be accomplished in the future. Converting coal to liquid fuels is identified as the major means to produce liquid fuels, as long as non-carbon dioxide emitting sources of process heat/hydrogen are employed in this coal conversion process. The third proposal, called an Energy Family approach, places first emphasis on conservation and then creates a mix of energy sources, renewable, nuclear, coal, natural gas, and some oil that could meet all the energy demands of a modern society, while staying within environmental and national security limits. This third approach appears to be most likely to get continuing support. There can be significant progress through “Second Generation” conservation, which extracts much more energy from our existing electrical generation and transmission system. Coal would have to undergo a major transformation from producing electricity to producing liquid fuels for transportation. Transportation and space heating and cooling would be far more electrified. Nuclear power would have to be expanded to replace many of the phased out coal plants, to provide electricity for transportation, and to supply high-temperature process heat and hydrogen. Long-term programs need to be put in place to assure nuclear power’s continuing contribution. Finally, energy storage is a component which is often overlooked, but is essential. It could overcome fundamental renewable energy difficulties of variability and the possibility of wind power to create electrical grid instabilities. It is shown that an Energy Family approach could accelerate the development of renewable energy.     

Coal-to-Liquids: Potential Impact on U.S. Coal Reserves

The production of liquid fuels from coal will very likely become an important part of the hydrocarbon energy mix of the future, provided that technical and environmental obstacles are overcome economically. The coal industry should be able to handle a coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry of modest size, using 60–70 million short tons or 54–64 million metric tonnes of coal per annum, without premature depletion of the country’s coal reserves. However, attempts to use CTL technology to replace all petroleum imports would deplete the nation’s coal reserves by the end of the century.     

西辽河流域全新世以来的农业垦殖活动(英文)

The agricultural reclamations in the Xiliao River Valley since the Holocene have led to a huge landscape change from grassland to farmland. In this paper we reconsider the man-land relationship in the Xiliao River Valley by analyzing three major agricultural reclamations in prehistory, the Liao-Jin Dynasty and the period since the Qing Dynasty. We argue that when the demographic pressure appears in this area, especially during the last reclamation, the intraregional migration (second migration) is the major response to relieve such pressure, which also distinguishes two different settlement locations: "the initial area" and "the secondary area". Due to the environmental differences between these two areas, the cultivation on the latter one has caused more serious disturbance to the local environment. Thus the secondary area has become the key region which needs environmental management seri-ously.     

Coal resources,production, and quality in the Eastern kentucky coal field: Perspectives on the future of steam coal production

The Eastern Kentucky coal field, along with adjacent portions of Virginia and southern West Virginia, is part of the greatest production concentration of high-heating-value, low-sulfur coal in the United States, accounting for over 27% of the 1993 U.S. production of coal of all ranks. Eastern Kentucky's production is spread among many coal beds but is particularly concentrated in a limited number of highquality coals, notably the Pond Creek coal bed and its correlatives, and the Fire Clay coal bed and its correlatives. Both coals are relatively low ash and low sulfur through the areas of the heaviest concentration of mining activity. We discuss production trends, resources, and the quality of in-place and clean coal for those and other major coals in the region.     

Formations of the ecological tourism structure on the territory of the planned “Gornaya Oka” natural park

Presented are the results from expedition-based investigations made by the Institute of Geography SB RAS, and an analysis is made of the economic indices of development of the Okinsky district (Republic of Buryatia), which made it possible to draw a preliminary conclusion about the formation of the ecological tourism structure on the territory of Gornaya Oka and provide a rationale for the establishment of the “Gornaya Oka” natural park as a necessary and legislatively supported territory designed for rational and controlled utilization of tourist and recreational resources.     

Late Holocene palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Roman harbour of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Portus</Emphasis>, Italy

We present a Holocene record of climate and environmental change in central New York (USA) inferred using lithologic and stable isotope data from two sediment cores recovered in Cayuga Lake. The record was divided into three intervals: (1) early Holocene (~11.6–8.8 ka), (2) Hypsithermal (~8.8–4.4 ka), and (3) Neoglacial (~4.4 ka to present). The early Holocene began abruptly, with rising lake level and relatively deep water. Between ~10.8 and 9.2 ka, cool and dry conditions prevailed at a time of maximum solar insolation. This anomaly has been referred to as the “post-Younger Dryas climate interval” and lasted ~1,600 years, the approximate length of one “Bond cycle.” The Hypsithermal was the warmest, wettest and most biologically productive interval of the Holocene in central New York. The Hypsithermal was characterized by centennial to multi-centennial-scale variability. The 8.2 ka event is one such variation. The Neoglacial was an interval of generally cooler and dryer conditions, falling lake levels, and several prominent climate anomalies. At approximately 2.4 ka, δ¹³C of bulk organic matter increased abruptly by 5‰ as lake level declined, and the lake flora was dominated by Chara sp. during the coldest interval of the Neoglacial. Numerous sediment variables display increased variability ~2.0 ka, which continues today. Archaeological data from the literature suggest that Native American populations may have been large enough to impact land cover by about 2.4 ka and we hypothesize that the “Anthropocene” began at about that time in central New York. We also found paleolimnological evidence for the Medieval Warm Period (~1.4–0.5 ka), which was warmer and wetter than today, and for the Little Ice Age (~500–150 years ago), a period with temperatures colder than today.     

Assessment of Exploration Bias in Data-Driven Predictive Models and the Estimation of Undiscovered Resources

The spatial distribution of discovered resources may not fully mimic the distribution of all such resources, discovered and undiscovered, because the process of discovery is biased by accessibility factors (e.g., outcrops, roads, and lakes) and by exploration criteria. In data-driven predictive models, the use of training sites (resource occurrences) biased by exploration criteria and accessibility does not necessarily translate to a biased predictive map. However, problems occur when evidence layers correlate with these same exploration factors. These biases then can produce a data-driven model that predicts known occurrences well, but poorly predicts undiscovered resources. Statistical assessment of correlation between evidence layers and map-based exploration factors is difficult because it is difficult to quantify the “degree of exploration.” However, if such a degree-of-exploration map can be produced, the benefits can be enormous. Not only does it become possible to assess this correlation, but it becomes possible to predict undiscovered, instead of discovered, resources. Using geothermal systems in Nevada, USA, as an example, a degree-of-exploration model is created, which then is resolved into purely explored and unexplored equivalents, each occurring within coextensive study areas. A weights-of-evidence (WofE) model is built first without regard to the degree of exploration, and then a revised WofE model is calculated for the “explored fraction” only. Differences in the weights between the two models provide a correlation measure between the evidence and the degree of exploration. The data used to build the geothermal evidence layers are perceived to be independent of degree of exploration. Nevertheless, the evidence layers correlate with exploration because exploration has preferred the same favorable areas identified by the evidence patterns. In this circumstance, however, the weights for the “explored” WofE model minimize this bias. Using these revised weights, posterior probability is extrapolated into unexplored areas to estimate undiscovered deposits.