Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

An Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) is developed and used to investigate the potential global warming contribution to current tropical cyclone activity. The ACCI is defined as the difference between the means of ensembles of climate simulations with and without anthropogenic gases and aerosols. This index indicates that the bulk of the current anthropogenic warming has occurred in the past four decades, which enables improved confidence in assessing hurricane changes as it removes many of the data issues from previous eras. We find no anthropogenic signal in annual global tropical cyclone or hurricane frequencies. But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of ~25–30 % per °C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes. This has been balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and 2 hurricane proportions, leading to development of a distinctly bimodal intensity distribution, with the secondary maximum at Category 4 hurricanes. This global signal is reproduced in all ocean basins. The observed increase in Category 4–5 hurricanes may not continue at the same rate with future global warming. The analysis suggests that following an initial climate increase in intense hurricane proportions a saturation level will be reached beyond which any further global warming will have little effect.     

Evaluation of Two Initialization Schemes for Simulating the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Lekima(2019)

Two different initialization schemes for tropical cyclone(TC) prediction in numerical models are evaluated based on a case study of Typhoon Lekima(2019). The first is a dynamical initialization(DI) scheme where the axisymmetric TC vortex in the initial conditions is spun up through the 6-h cycle runs before the initial forecast time. The second scheme is a bogussing scheme where the analysis TC vortex is replaced by a synthetic Rankine vortex. Results show that although both initialization schem...     

A review of ground-based,mobile, W-band Doppler-radar observations of tornadoes and dust devils

A ground-based, mobile, W-band Doppler-radar has been used in the U.S. during the last decade to obtain high-spatial resolution maps of the radar reflectivity and wind fields in tornadoes and dust devils. This radar is one of the best tools available for studying the substructure of intense, small-scale vortices in the boundary layer. The most significant findings to date are summarized.In one case, it was found that just prior to tornadogenesis in a supercell, a 100–200 m scale cyclonic vortex formed at the leading edge of a bulge in the rear–flank gust front. This vortex appeared to interact with a larger-scale (500 m to 1 km wide) cyclonic vortex, just as the tornado formed. Other small-scale cyclonic vortices were present along the rear–flank gust, but they did not develop into tornadoes. The mature tornado-vortex was dominated by quasi-stationary wavenumber-two disturbances, while the mean vortex resembled a two-celled, Rankine combined vortex. The diameter of the mean vortex narrowed as it intensified and widened as it weakened, even though the tornado condensation funnel narrowed as the tornado was dissipating. Evidence was also found of short-term, inertial-like oscillations in vortex diameter and intensity. Spiral bands and eyes were ubiquitous. The eye in one well-documented case was broader in the lowest few hundred meters than it was aloft. Multiple vortices and “umbilical” cords of very narrow bands of reflectivity have also been found.Both cyclonic and anticyclonic dust devils have been documented. Some dust devils resemble a relatively narrow, Rankine combined vortex, while others are wider and have a broad, calm eye and a narrow annulus of intense vorticity just within the radius of maximum wind (RMW), and rising motion just inside the RMW and sinking motion well inside the RMW. Multiple-vortex structure, Rossby-like wave motion, and the Fujiwhara effect have also been documented.     

积云参数化方案对夏季东亚季风区海气系统位相关系模拟的影响

本文利用区域海气耦合模式RegCM-POM,分别选取Grell积云参数化方案和Emanuel积云参数化方案对北半球夏季(5—10月)的东亚气候进行模拟,研究不同积云对流参数化方案(CPS)对东亚夏季季风区海气系统位相关系模拟的影响。结果表明:不同CPS模拟的陆地降水具有一定的不确定性,而海洋降水和海温的模拟受CPS选择的影响更大。其中,Emanuel方案对海洋降水和海温的分布形势模拟总体上要好于Grell方案,且可以更好的模拟中国近海各海区的海气系统位相关系,特别是大气对海温的负反馈过程。原因在于Emanuel方案模拟的对流降水与海温的位相关系更接近观测总降水与海温的位相关系;而Grell方案对南海和孟加拉湾的对流降水模拟偏少,对黑潮对流降水的模拟偏多,错误地模拟了这几个海区积云对流过程发挥的作用,故其模拟的海气系统位相关系不如Emanuel方案。     

Single-Doppler Radar Analysis of a Mesocyclone in the Taiwan Strait

In this study, the kinematic and precipitation structures of a mesocyclone associated with a hook echo were analyzed using single Doppler radar data. The mesocyclone was embedded in a mesoscale convective rainband near northern Taiwan coastline on 10 September 2004. The synoptic environment was characterized by a moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE) and a moderate ambient vertical shear from surface to 5 km.In addition, a pronounced low-level mesoscale shear/convergence zone, which resulted from the interaction of two tropical depressions, was also identified in the northwest coast of Taiwan,providing a favorable dynamic condition for the development of the mesocyclone. Analyzing single Doppler dipole signature shows that this mesocyclone formed initially at low levels, then deepened and strengthened rapidly into mature stage with the vertical depth exceeding 8 km. The diameter of the mesocyclone decreased with the height at the time of vortexgenesis, and then evolved into columnar structure accompanied with the broader diameter in middle layer. The mesocyclone lasted for about 2 h. The Ground-Based Velocity Track Display (GBVTD) method was applied to retrieve the axisymmetric circulation of the mesocyclone. The GBVTD-derived primary circulation showed the radius of maximum wind (RMW) of the mesocyclone was about 5--6 km and varied from inward tilting to outward tilting with time. The axisymmetric radial wind field was initially characterized by a low-level inflow inside the RMW and outflow outside the RMW, respectively. The strongest reflectivity was associated with a stronger updraft near the RMW, and a weak downdraft was located at the center of the mesocyclone.Subsequently the downdraft and reflectivity near the mesocyclone center strengthened obviously, accompanied with the low-level outflow, strong updraft as well as high reflectivity extending outside the RMW. The relative tangential wind initially exhibited a wavenumber 1 asymmetric structure with the maximum wind region at the left portion of the meso cyclone and shifted counterclockwise with height. The axisymmetric tangential wind strengthened and reached its maximum intensity with a value about 20 m s-1 at z=1 km. After that the axisymmetric tangential wind decreased rapidly, meanwhile the wave-1 asymmetric structure redeveloped with the maximum wind at the left-front of motion. In summary, the evolution and structure of the mesocyclone is similar to that observed within a non-supercell mesocyclone. It is worth to mention that the axisymmetric circulation characteristics of the mesocyclone at its mature stage are very similar to those observed in a mature typhoon. However, there are significant differences, i.e., the size is much smaller, the lifetime is much shorter, and the downdraft in the center is produced by precipitation instead of compensating subsidence.     

A High-resolution Simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) —— Part I: Model Verification and Surface Energetics Analysis

A 72-h high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) is performed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model covers an initial 18-h spin-up, the 36-h rapid intensification (RI) period in the northern South China Sea, and the 18-h period of weakening after landfall. The results show that the model reproduces the track, intensity, structure of the storm, and environmental circulations reasonably well. Analysis of the surface energetics under the storm indicates that the storm's intensification is closely related to the net energy gain rate (ε g), defined as the difference between the energy production (P D) due to surface entropy flux and the energy dissipation (D S) due to surface friction near the radius of maximum wind (RMW). Before and during the RI stage, the ε g is high, indicating sufficient energy supply for the storm to intensify. However, the ε g decreases rapidly as the storm quickly intensifies, because the D S increases more rapidly than the P D near the RMW. By the time the storm reaches its peak intensity, the D S is about 20% larger than the P D near the RMW, leading to a local energetics deficit under the eyewall. During the mature stage, the P D and D S can reach a balance within a radius of 86 km from the storm center (about 2.3 times the RMW). This implies that the local P D under the eyewall is not large enough to balance the D S, and the radially inward energy transport from outside the eyewall must play an important role in maintaining the storm's intensity, as well as its intensification.     

Climatic simulations of the eastern Andes low-level jet and its dependency on convective parameterizations

The South American low level jet (SALLJ) of the Eastern Andes is investigated with Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations during the 2002–2003 austral summer using two convective parameterizations (Grell and Emanuel). The simulated SALLJ is compared with the special observations of SALLJEX (SALLJ Experiment). Both the Grell and Emanuel schemes adequately simulate the low level flow over South America. However, there are some intensity differences. Due to the larger (smaller) convective activity, the Emanuel (Grell) scheme simulates more intense (weaker) low level wind than analysis in the tropics and subtropics. The objectives criteria of Sugahara (SJ) and Bonner (BJ) were used for LLJ identification. When applied to the observations, both criteria suggest a larger frequency of the SALLJ in Santa Cruz, followed by Mariscal, Trinidad and Asunción. In Mariscal and Asunción, the diurnal cycle indicates that SJ occurs mainly at 12 UTCs (morning), while the BJ criterion presents the SALLJ as more homogenously distributed. The concentration into two of the four-times-a-day observations does not allow conclusions about the diurnal cycle in Santa Cruz and Trinidad. The simulated wind profiles result in a lower than observed frequency of SALLJ using both the SJ and BJ criteria, with fewer events obtained with the BJ. Due to the stronger simulated winds, the Emanuel scheme produces an equal or greater relative frequency of SALLJ than the Grell scheme. However, the Grell scheme using the SJ criterion simulates the SALLJ diurnal cycle closer to the observed one. Although some discrepancies between observed and simulated mean vertical profiles of the horizontal wind are noted, there is large agreement between the composites of the vertical structure of the SALLJ, especially when the SJ criterion is used with the Grell scheme. On an intraseasonal scale, a larger southward displacement of SALLJ in February and December when compared with January has been noted. The Grell and Emanuel schemes simulated this observed oscillation in the low-level flow. However, the spatial pattern and intensity of rainfall and circulation anomalies simulated by the Grell scheme are closer to the analyses than those obtained with the Emanuel scheme.     

台湾海峡中气旋结构特征的单多普勒雷达分析

2004年9月10日傍晚,在台湾北部海面大范围中尺度对流雨带中有一钩状回波并伴随中气旋.受台湾东北部和西南部海面两个热带低压系统的环流影响,海峡北部海面有一大尺度的风切辐合带,为中气旋发展提供了有利环境.文中利用台湾地区北部民用航空局中正机场多普勒雷达资料,分析中气旋特征,结果显示此中气旋由低层形成随后向上发展,最高可达8 km以上,内核直径先是低层大中层小,随后中层扩大与低层接近成圆柱状,之后快速减弱,整个过程约2 h.进一步用地基雷达风速轨迹显示法(GBVTD)反演中气旋成熟期间的环流结构变化,结果显示在分析期间,最大风半径维持在5-6 km,且随时间在高度分布由向内倾斜转化为无明显倾斜再到向外倾斜.轴对称径向风先在低层最大风速半径以内有外流,以外有内流,在最大风速半径处为上升运动区并伴随强回波,而在气旋中心附近为下沉运动区.随后气旋中心回波和下沉运动均逐渐增强,同时低层外流增强并扩散至最大风速半径外,相应的上升运动和强回波也移至最大风速半径外.切向风先呈现波数1的非对称结构,最大风速区位于气旋移动的左侧,且随高度有沿逆时针方向旋转的现象,随后显著增强,分布趋于对称,最大轴对称切向风达20 m/s位于约1 km高度.此后切向风速逐渐减弱,同时波数1非对称结构又有加强的趋势,最大风速区位于移动方向左前侧.中气旋发展过程和结构同其他地区观测的非超级单体微气旋非常相似,其成熟期环流特征同台风结构也非常类似,不同之处在于其中心下沉运动及低层外流为降水所造成,且尺度和生命期均远小于台风.     

台风内区中尺度结构研究

一、引言 二十多年来,人们想弄清楚成熟台风的眼区结构,已作了很大的努力。Bergeron(1954)利用一系列通过菲律宾群岛的台风资料,研究给出了台风内区的风和降水最大值的位置,以及眼壁有明显的向外倾斜的特点。Riehl、Malkus(1961)和Gray、Shea(1973等人利用机载探测仪器得到的资料,研究飓风眼的结构。Gray等人根据1957—1969年21个飓风的533次飞机穿行飓风的观测资料,进行综合分析,揭示飓风内区的结构特征和变化。七十年代后期以来,飞机探测技术迅速发展,使以研究为目的的飞行计划     

Dependence of Hurricane Intensity and Structures on Vertical Resolution and Time-Step Size

In view of the growing interests in the explicit modeling of clouds and precipitation, the effects of varying vertical resolution and time-step sizes on the 72-h explicit simulation of Hurricane Andrew (1992) are studied using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model (i.e., MM5) with the finest grid size of 6 km. It is shown that changing vertical resolution and time-step size has significant effects on hurricane intensity and inner-core cloud/precipitation, but little impact on the hurricane track. In general, increasing vertical resolution tends to produce a deeper storm with lower central pressure and stronger three-dimensional winds, and more precipitation. Similar effects, but to a less extent, occur when the time-step size is reduced. It is found that increasing the low-level vertical resolution is more efficient in intensifying a hurricane, whereas changing the upper-level vertical resolution has little impact on the hurricane intensity. Moreover, the use of a thicker surface layer tends to produce higher maximum surface winds. It is concluded that the use of higher vertical resolution,a thin surface layer, and smaller time-step sizes, along with higher horizontal resolution, is desirable to model more realistically the intensity and inner-core structures and evolution of tropical storms as well as the other convectively driven weather systems.     

西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的若干特征

使用NOAA海表温度资料、ECMWF再分析资料和JTWC台风最佳路径数据,对1984—2013年30年西北太平洋热带区域（100 °E~180 °,0~60 °N）内热带气旋（TC）的强度变化特征及其与环境风垂直切变（VWS）、海表温度（SST）、最大风速半径（RMW）的关系作了统计分析,尤其关注TC强度突变。结果表明:（1）在研究区域内,TC样本中35.2%强度稳定,52.8%强度变化缓慢,仅12.0%强度突变,约92.7%的迅速加强TC样本发生在其台风及以上强度等级;（2）2000年以来,TC强度稳定样本减少,强度迅速变化样本增多。5月和9—10月是TC强度突变的高频期;（3）超过12 m/s的环境VWS下TC迅速加强较少,且只有台风及以上强度TC才能在大于12 m/s的VWS下迅速加强;（4）TC加强和迅速加强主要在28.5~30.0 ℃的SST洋面上发生,在较低SST下仍迅速加强的TC强度等级较高;（5）TC样本的RMW多小于100 km,其中强度突变TC RMW峰值区在20~40 km;（6）加强TC的RMW的24 h变化一般减小,减弱TC的RMW则增大;其中强度突变TC尤其明显,超强台风发生迅速加强时,RMW减小的比率达84.6%,但仍有15.4%比率的RMW增大。      

Hurricane intensity changes associated with geomagnetic variation

Recently some indications have appeared that several purely meteorological processes in the terrestrial atmosphere are dependent upon magnetosphere variations. To analyse the possible relationship with North Atlantic hurricane intensification, the authors examine geomagnetic data for ten days prior to all hurricanes over the last 50 years (1950–1999). A significant positive correlation between the averaged Kp index of global geomagnetic activity and hurricane intensity as measured by maximum sustained wind speed is identified for baroclinically-initiated hurricanes. Results are consistent with a mechanism whereby ionization processes trigger glaciation at cloud top which leads to hurricane intensification through upper tropospheric latent heat release.     

Skill of synthetic superensemble hurricane forecasts for the Canadian maritime provinces

Summary From 1994 to 2003, fifty-five tropical cyclones entered the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) Response Zone, or about 42% of all named Atlantic tropical cyclones in this ten-year period, and 2003 was the fourth consecutive year for a tropical cyclone to make landfall in Canada. The CHC forecasts all tropical cyclones that enter the CHC Response Zone and assumes the lead in forecasting once the cyclone enters its area of forecast responsibility. This study acknowledges the challenges of forecasting such tropical cyclones at extratropical latitudes. If a tropical cyclone has been declared extratropical, global models may no longer use vortex bogussing to carry the cyclone, and even if it is modeled, large model errors often result. The purpose of this study is to develop a new version of the Florida State University (FSU) hurricane superensemble with greater skill in tracking tropical cyclones, especially at extratropical latitudes. This has been achieved from the development of the synthetic superensemble, which is similar to the operational version of the multi-model superensemble that is used at FSU. The synthetic superensemble differs in that is has a larger set of member models consisting of regular member models, synthetic versions of these models, and the operational superensemble and its synthetic version. This synthetic superensemble is being used here to forecast hurricane tracks from the 2001, 2002, and 2003 hurricane seasons. The track forecasts from this method have generally less error than those of the member models, the operational superensemble, and the ensemble mean. This study shows that the synthetic superensemble performs consistently well and would be an asset to operational hurricane track forecasting.     

Regional climate simulations of summer diurnal rainfall variations over East Asia and Southeast China

This study evaluates the performance of RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model Version 3) in simulating the East Asian rainfall, with emphasis on the diurnal variations of rainfall over Southeast China during the 1998–2002 summer (June–August) seasons. The evaluation focuses on the sensitivity of the choice of cumulus parameterizations and model domain. With the right setup, the spatial and temporal evolution of diurnal rainfall over Southeast China, which has not been well simulated by past studies, can be accurately simulated by RegCM3. Results show that the Emanuel cumulus scheme has a more realistic simulation of summer mean rainfall in East Asia, while the GFC (Grell scheme with the Frisch-Chappell convective closure assumption) scheme is better in simulating the diurnal variations of rainfall over Southeast China. The better performance of these two schemes [relative to the other two schemes in RegCM3: the Kuo scheme and the GAS (Grell scheme with the Arakawa–Schubert closure assumption) scheme] can be attributed to the reasonable reproduction of the major formation mechanism of rainfall—the moisture flux convergence—over Southeast China. Furthermore, when the simulation domain covers the entire Tibetan Plateau, the diurnal variations of rainfall over Southeast China are found to exhibit a noticeable improvement without changes in the physics schemes.     

登陆台风卡努(0515)内核区环流结构特征分析

本文采用地基雷达轨迹显示技术(Ground Based Velocity Track Display,简称GBVTD)反演的雷达风场资料,分析台风卡努(0515)在登陆期间近中心环流结构特征.轴对称环流结构分析表明,登陆前卡努轴对称切向风速最大值出现在眼墙区域2 km高度附近,最大风速半径随高度向外倾斜.轴对称径向入流...     

强台风Chanchu（0601）的数值研究：转向前后内核结构和强度变化

使用FY卫星TBB资料和新一代非静力中尺度模式WRF分析南海强台风Chanchu(0601)"急翘"转向前后内核结构和强度变化过程。结果表明:转向后内核结构非对称特征明显。WRF数值模式较好地模拟出Chanchu强度和异常路径变化过程,再现了内核结构演变:转向前,垂直切变较弱,有利于快速加强,内核结构较为对称;转向后,垂直切变明显增大,强回波位于垂直切变下风方向的左侧,显示为内核非对称结构。使用傅立叶变换方法分解模拟结果中的雷达回波,发现眼壁和内螺旋雨带的2波非对称沿方位角移速与涡旋罗斯贝波(VRWs)的理论波速一致,Chanchu快速加强过程中断和强度维持的可能原因为:眼壁传播的VRWs受到外螺旋雨带的扰动以及涡旋倾斜加剧引起眼壁非对称性加强导致"急翘"时眼壁破裂,此后眼区和眼壁区水平混合过程加强,850 hPa眼区相当位温明显增加,抑制高层相对暖干空气和低层相对冷湿空气相互交换,使得随眼壁内侧下沉气流向下输送的暖干空气减少,低层增温作用减弱,快速加强过程中断;VRWs径向内传导致高值涡度由眼壁内侧向眼心传播,引起最大风速半径(RMW)内侧切向风速增大,RMW随时间向眼心延伸,眼壁进一步收缩,一定程度上抵消了垂直切变加大的负面影响,Chanchu维持强度。     

Single-Doppler Radar Observations of a High Precipitation Supercell Accompanying the 12 April 2003 Severe Squall Line in Fujian Province

In this study,single Doppler radar data were used to examine the structure and evolution of a high precipitation(HP) supercell embedded in a cold front near Jianyang,Fujian Province on 12 April 2003.The synoptic environment was characterized by high humidity at low levels,moderate CAPE(convective available potential energy;1601 J kg~(-1)),moderate wind shear(22 m s~(-1) in 0-5 km),and veering of the horizontal winds with height,similar to those HP supercells previously observed in midlatitudes.In additio...     

Uncertainty in TC Maximum Intensity with Fixed Ratio of Surface Exchange Coefficients for Enthalpy and Momentum

The classical tropical cyclone (TC) maximum intensity theory of Emanuel suggests that the maximum azimuthal wind of TC depends linearly on the ratio of surface ...     

Adaptive use of research aircraft data sets for hurricane forecasts

Summary This study uses an adaptive observational strategy for hurricane forecasting. It shows the impacts of Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) and dropsonde data sets from Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) field campaigns on hurricane track and intensity forecasts. The following cases are used in this study: Bonnie, Danielle and Georges of 1998 and Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto of 2001. A single model run for each storm is carried out using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM) with the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis as initial conditions, in addition to 50 other model runs where the analysis is randomly perturbed for each storm. The centers of maximum variance of the DLM heights are located from the forecast error variance fields at the 84-hr forecast. Back correlations are then performed using the centers of these maximum variances and the fields at the 36-hr forecast. The regions having the highest correlations in the vicinity of the hurricanes are indicative of regions from where the error growth emanates and suggests the need for additional observations. Data sets are next assimilated in those areas that contain high correlations. Forecasts are computed using the new initial conditions for the storm cases, and track and intensity skills are then examined with respect to the control forecast. The adaptive strategy is capable of identifying sensitive areas where additional observations can help in reducing the hurricane track forecast errors. A reduction of position error by approximately 52% for day 3 of forecast (averaged over 7 storm cases) over the control runs is observed. The intensity forecast shows only a slight positive impact due to the model’s coarse resolution. Corresponding author’s address: T. N. Krishnamurti, Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520, USA     

The impact of tropical sea surface temperatures on various measures of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Summary Since 1995 there has been a resurgence of Atlantic hurricane activity, with 2005 being the most active and destructive hurricane season on record. The influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) upon trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is investigated by considering SSTs in the southern tropical North Atlantic, an area known as the main development region (MDR). Significant differences in hurricane activity are observed when comparing the ten coolest and ten warmest years of SSTs in the MDR for the period spanning from 1941 to 2006, with increasing MDR SSTs linked to the increased duration and frequency of tropical cyclones. It is concluded that future increases in SSTs, as climate models project, could result in increased Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Understanding how oceanic processes affecting the MDR may change with climate change could therefore help increase the predictive capability for hurricane activity. Authors’ addresses: Paul A. Steenhof, 50 Hendrick, Chelsea, Quebec, J9B 1M1 Canada; William A. Gough, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Scarborough, Ontario, Canada