Coupled 1D–3D hydrodynamic modelling,with application to the Pearl River Delta

Within the hydrodynamic modelling community, it is common practice to apply different modelling systems for coastal waters and river systems. Whereas for coastal waters 3D finite difference or finite element grids are commonly used, river systems are generally modelled using 1D networks. Each of these systems is tailored towards specific applications. Three-dimensional coastal water models are designed to model the horizontal and vertical variability in coastal waters and are less well suited for representing the complex geometry and cross-sectional areas of river networks. On the other hand, 1D river network models are designed to accurately represent complex river network geometries and complex structures like weirs, barrages and dams. A disadvantage, however, is that they are unable to resolve complex spatial flow variability. In real life, however, coastal oceans and rivers interact. In deltaic estuaries, both tidal intrusion of seawater into the upstream river network and river discharge into open waters play a role. This is frequently approached by modelling the systems independently, with off-line coupling of the lateral boundary forcing. This implies that the river and the coastal model run sequentially, providing lateral discharge (1D) and water level (3D) forcing to each other without the possibility of direct feedback or interaction between these processes. An additional disadvantage is that due to the time aggregation usually applied to exchanged quantities, mass conservation is difficult to ensure. In this paper, we propose an approach that couples a 3D hydrodynamic modelling system for coastal waters (Delft3D) with a 1D modelling system for river hydraulics (SOBEK) online. This implies that contrary to off-line coupling, the hydrodynamic quantities are exchanged between the 1D and 3D domains during runtime to resolve the real-time exchange and interaction between the coastal waters and river network. This allows for accurate and mass conserving modelling of complex coastal waters and river network systems, whilst the advantages of both systems are maintained and used in an optimal and computationally efficient way. The coupled 1D–3D system is used to model the flows in the Pearl River Delta (Guangdong, China), which are determined by the interaction of the upstream network of the Pearl River and the open waters of the South China Sea. The highly complex upstream river network is modelled in 1D, simulating river discharges for the dry and wet monsoon periods. The 3D coastal model simulates the flow due to the external (ocean) periodic tidal forcing, the salinity distribution for both dry and wet seasons, as well as residual water levels (sea level anomalies) originating from the South China Sea. The model is calibrated and its performance extensively assessed against field measurements, resulting in a mean root mean square (RMS) error of below 6% for water levels over the entire Pearl River Delta. The model also represents both the discharge distribution over the river network and salinity transport processes with good accuracy, resolving the discharge distribution over the main branches of the river network within 5% of reported annual mean values and RMS errors for salinity in the range of 2 ppt (dry season) to 5 ppt (wet season).     

Spectra of a shallow sea—unmixing for class identification and monitoring of coastal waters

Ocean colour-based monitoring of water masses is a promising alternative to monitoring concentrations in heterogeneous coastal seas. Fuzzy methods, such as spectral unmixing, are especially well suited for recognition of water masses from their remote sensing reflectances. However, such models have not yet been applied for water classification and monitoring. In this study, a fully constrained endmember model with simulated endmembers was developed for water class identification in the shallow Wadden Sea and adjacent German Bight. Its performance was examined on in situ measured reflectances and on MERIS satellite data. Water classification by means of unmixing reflectance spectra proved to be successful. When the endmember model was applied to MERIS data, it was able to visualise well-known spatial, tidal, seasonal, and wind-related variations in optical properties in the heterogeneous Wadden Sea. Analyses show that the method is insensitive to small changes in endmembers. Therefore, it can be applied in similar coastal areas. For use in open ocean situations or coastal or inland waters with other specific inherent optical properties, re-simulation of the endmember spectra with local optical properties is required. However, such an adaptation requires only a limited number of local in situ measurements.     

Assimilation of SeaWiFS chlorophyll data into a 3D-coupled physical–biogeochemical model applied to a freshwater-influenced coastal zone

In order to predict eutrophication events in coastal areas we tested an assimilation scheme based on sequential data assimilation of SeaWiFS chlorophyll data into a coupled 3D physical–biogeochemical model. The area investigated is a semi-enclosed estuarine system (Gulf of Fos–North-western Mediterranean Sea) closely linked to the Rhone River delta. This system is subjected to episodic eutrophication caused by certain hydrodynamic conditions and intermittent nutrient inputs. The 3D hydrodynamic model Symphonie was coupled to the biogeochemical modelling platform Eco3M. Surface chlorophyll concentrations were derived from SeaWiFS data using the OC5 algorithm and were sequentially assimilated using a singular evolutive extended Kalman filter. Assimilation efficiency was evaluated through an independent in situ data set collected during a field survey that took place in May 2001 (ModelFos cruise). An original approach was used in constructing the state vector and the observation vector. By assimilating pseudo-salinity extracted from the model biogeochemical dynamics in both open sea and plume region were respected. We proved that substantial improvements were made in short-term forecasts by integrating such satellite-estimated chlorophyll maps. We showed that missing freshwater inputs could be corrected to a certain extent by the assimilation process. Simulated concentrations of surface chlorophyll and other basic components of the pelagic ecosystem such as nitrates were improved by assimilating surface chlorophyll maps. Finally we showed the coherent spatial behaviour of the filter over the whole modelled domain.     

1D system identification of buildings during earthquakes by seismic interferometry with waveform inversion of impulse responses—method and application to Millikan library

Two new algorithms have been introduced as a further development of a robust interferometric method for structural health monitoring (SHM) of buildings during earthquakes using data from seismic sensors. The SHM method is intended to be used in an automatic seismic alert system, to issue a warning of significant damage during or immediately after the earthquake, and facilitate decision making on evacuation, to avoid loss of life and injury from possible collapse of the weekend structure during aftershock shaking. The method identifies a wave velocity profile of the building by fitting an equivalent layered shear beam model in impulse response functions (virtual source at roof) of the recorded earthquake response. The structural health is monitored by detecting changes in the identified velocities in moving time windows, the initial window being used as reference. Because the fit involves essentially matching phase difference between motion at different floors, the identified velocity profile is not affected by rigid body rocking, and soil-structure interaction in general, as demonstrated in this paper. Consequently, detected changes in wave velocity during an earthquake are not affected by changes in the soil-foundation system, which is a major advantage over SHM by detecting changes in the observed modal frequencies. Further, the method is robust when applied to real buildings and large amplitude earthquake response, as demonstrated in previous work. The new fitting algorithms introduced are the nonlinear least squares (LSQ) fit and the time shift matching (TSM) algorithms. The former involves waveform inversion of the impulse responses, and the latter - iterative matching of the pulse time shifts, both markedly reducing the identification error as compared to the previously used direct ray algorithm, especially for more detailed models, i.e., with fewer floors per layer. Results are presented of identification of the NS, EW and torsional responses of the densely instrumented Millikan Library (9-story reinforced concrete building in Pasadena, California) during a small earthquake.     

Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes

Introduction According to many published papers, seismicity in time-space domain shows some characteristics, such as doughnut epicenter distribution (Mogi, 1969) or quiescence of seismic activity before large earthquakes (WANG, et al, 2002), and aftershock decay (Ogata, 1998). In recent years, more and more seismologists (Lynnr, Steven, 1990) have found that many strong earthquakes are preceded by enhancing regional seismicity and accelerating strain energy release (ZHANG, et al, 2001). T…     

Size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass,primary production and respiration in the Nervión–Ibaizabal estuary: A comparison with other nearshore coastal and estuarine ecosystems from the Bay of Biscay

The seasonal pattern of size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass, primary production and respiration was investigated along the longitudinal axis of the Nervión–Ibaizabal estuary (Bay of Biscay) from April 2003 to September 2004. Environmental factors influencing phytoplankton dynamics were also studied. Chlorophyll a biomass showed a longitudinal pattern of increase from the outer Abra bay to the inner estuary. On a seasonal scale, in the intermediate and inner estuary phytoplankton biomass maxima were registered in summer, the warmest and driest season, whereas in the outer bay chlorophyll a peaks occurred in May 2004, but were delayed to August 2003, likely due to a very rainy spring. Data suggest that river flow exerts a marked influence on the timing of phytoplankton biomass maxima in this estuary, decreased river flows providing a lowering of turbidity and an increase in water residence time needed for chlorophyll a to build up. Nutrient concentrations were high enough not to limit phytoplankton growth throughout the annual cycle, except silicate and occasionally phosphate in the outer bay during summer. Silicate concentration correlated positively with river flow, whereas ammonium and phosphate maximum values were generally measured in the mid-estuary, suggesting the importance of allochthonous anthropogenic sources. In the intermediate and inner estuary phytoplankton biomass was generally dominated by >8 μm size-fraction (ca. 60%), but in August 2003 <8 μm size-fraction increased its contribution in the intermediate estuary. It is argued that the lower nutrient concentrations measured in August 2003 than in August 2004 could have played a role. This is the first study in which phytoplankton primary production rates have been measured along the longitudinal axis of the Nervión–Ibaizabal estuary. Throughout the annual cycle these rates ranged from 0.001 to 3.163 g C m^?3 d^?1 and were comparable to those measured in nearby small estuaries of the Basque coast and other larger estuaries on the Bay of Biscay. Surface plankton community respiration rate maxima were measured during the spring 2004 chlorophyll a peak in the Abra bay and in summer months at the mid and inner estuary, coinciding with chlorophyll a biomass and primary production maxima. In general, respiration rates showed a positive correlation with temperature. In order to compare results from the Nervión–Ibaizabal estuary with other nearshore coastal and estuarine ecosystems within the Bay of Biscay a review of existing information on phytoplankton biomass and primary production dynamics was performed.     

Fuerteventura – Assessment of a calibration site for cosmogenic 3He exposure dating with the 40Ar/39Ar incremental heating method

In situ Terrestrial Cosmogenic Nuclides (hereafter TCNs) are increasingly important for absolutely dating terrestrial events and processes. This study aimed at improving our knowledge of the production rate of Terrestrial Cosmogenic ³He formed in situ in rock surfaces at low latitude and sea level as well as re-evaluation of the Canary Islands as a calibration site for TCNs. For this purpose, we sampled basaltic lava flows from some of the youngest and yet undated volcanic sites and used the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar incremental heating method on groundmass samples and in situ cosmogenic ³He on olivine and clinopyroxene phenocrysts. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar analysis was done on a Hiden HAL Series 1000 triple filter quadrupole mass spectrometer with extraction furnace. Incremental heating data shows ages in the Late Pleistocene from 52.7 ± 21.6 ka to 398.6 ± 27.6 ka.We measured cosmogenic ³He concentrations in olivine and clinopyroxene phenocrysts from flow top samples on a MAP 215-50 sector mass spectrometer with a crushing device and a diode laser extraction system. Exposure age calculations yielded ages in the range 38.9 ± 4.0 ka to 62.3 ± 6.7 ka for the youngest lava flow and the data series is in broad agreement with the argon data up to 250 ka and reveals a more continuous time line of volcanism during the late Pleistocene on the island. However, the dataset was not sufficient for calculation of production rates for in situ Terrestrial Cosmogenic ³He as many samples showed signs of erosion. Calculated erosion rates range from none to as high as 7.3 mm/kyr assuming a rock density of 2.9 g/cm². This finding puts a constraint on the use of Fuerteventura as a calibration site for exposure histories older than 50–100 ka. A comparison with cosmogenic ³⁶Cl data supports these findings and indicates substantial weathering.     

An aquifer model with a parameter characterizing the inhomogeneity of media

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Implementation of a wetting-and-drying model in simulating the Kennebec–Androscoggin plume and the circulation in Casco Bay

A high-resolution coastal ocean model was developed to simulate the temporal/spatial variability of the Kennebec–Androscoggin (K–A) river plume and the circulation in Casco Bay. The model results agree favorably with the moored and shipboard observations of velocity, temperature, and salinity. The surface salinity gradient was used to distinguish the plume from the ambient coastal water. The calculated plume thickness suggests that the K–A plume is surface trapped. Its horizontal scales correlate well with Q ^0.25, where Q is the volume discharge of the rivers. Directional spreading is affected by the wind with the upwelling favorable wind transporting the plume water offshore. Both the wind and the tide also enhance mixing in the plume. The inclusion of a wetting-and-drying (WAD) scheme appears to enhance the mixing and entrainment processes near the estuary. The plume becomes thicker near the mouth of the estuary, the outflow velocity of the plume is weaker, and the radius of the river plume shrinks. The flow field in the model run with the WAD is noisier, not only in shallow areas of Casco Bay but also in the plume and even on the shelf. We speculate that the WAD processes can affect much larger areas than the intertidal zones, especially via a river plume that feeds into a coastal current.     

The use of bioestimation—a new method for the control of water self-purification

Examples are given of the application of bioestimation??a conceptually new hydrobiological method used to control the process of water quality formation. This paper is the continuation of the paper ??Bioestimation: A New Method for the Control of Water Self-Purification Process and Its Comparison with Bioindication??. The experience in the use of bioestimation in water bodies with different use type, size, salinity, flowage, and geographic position confirmed its universal character, information value, promptness, and the possibility to limit the volume of sample to be sent to 10?C20 cm³, thus simplifying the field works. Each significant factor, which affects the self-purification process, is identified independently, since the bioestimators reflecting it are biotically independent; their number varies depending only on changes in the environmental factors that are external with respect to the community of environmental factors. Bioestimation shows prognostic properties, since it makes it possible to prevent water quality deterioration and to restore the normal course of water self-purification at the stage of its quality formation. The use of bioestimation will extend the positive anthropogenic impact on water bodies.     

A model of seismicity with fractal structures and a preliminary discussion on the relation between D and b value

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Mixed layer depth (MLD) variability in the southern Bay of Biscay. Deepening of winter MLDs concurrent with generalized upper water warming trends?

Mixed layer depth (MLD) variability from seasonal to decadal time scales in the Bay of Biscay is studied in this work. A hydrographic time series running since 1991 in the study area, a climatology of the upper layer vertical structure based on the topology of this temperature profile time series and a one-dimensional water column model have been used for this purpose. The prevailing factors driving MLD variability have been determined with detail, and agreement with observations is achieved. Tests carried out to investigate climatological profile skill to reproduce the upper layer temporal evolution have demonstrated its ability to simulate variability at seasonal time scales and reproduce the most conspicuous events observed. This has enabled us to carry out a reconstruction of the MLD variability for the last 60 years in the study area. Favourable sequence of intense mixing events explains interannual differences and cases of extraordinary deepening of winter mixed layer. The negative phase of the Eastern Atlantic pattern seems to determine important interannual variability through intense episodes of cooling and mixing as in winter 2005 in the Bay of Biscay. Low-frequency variability is also observed. A very striking and unexpected shallower winter MLD during the 1970s and 1980s than those observed from 1995 has been found. Simulation results support this counter-intuitive outcome of shallower winter mixed layers concurrent with generalized upper water warming trends reported on several occasions for the area. The long-term trends in MLD seem related with decadal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation, being in phase and opposition with other deepening-shallowing cycles found from subtropical-to-subpolar areas in the North Atlantic.     

Time-scales of recent Phlegrean Fields eruptions inferred from the application of a ‘diffusive fractionation’ model of trace elements

The variation of chemical element compositions in two pyroclastic sequences (Astroni 6 and Averno 2, Phlegrean Fields, Italy) is studied. Both sequences are compositionally zoned indicating a variability of melt compositions in the magma chamber prior to eruption. A clear dichotomy between the behaviour of major vs. trace elements is also observed in both sequences, with major elements displaying nearly linear inter-elemental trends and trace elements showing a variable scattered behaviour. Together with previous petrological investigations these observations are consistent with the hypothesis that magma mixing processes played a key role in the evolution of these two magmatic systems. Recently it has been suggested that mixing processes in igneous systems may strongly influence the mobility of trace elements inducing a ‘diffusive fractionation’ phenomenon, whose extent depends on the mixing time-scale. Here we merge information from 1) numerical simulations of magma mixing, and 2) magma mixing experiments (using as end-members natural compositions from Phlegrean Fields) to derive a relationship relating the degree of ‘diffusive fractionation’ to the mixing time-scales. Application of the ‘diffusive fractionation’ model to the two studied pyroclastic sequences allowed us to apply the relationship derived by numerical simulations and experiments to estimate the mixing time-scales for these two magmatic systems. Results indicate that mixing processes in Astroni 6 and Averno 2 systems lasted for approximately 2 and 9 days, respectively, prior to eruption.     

Modeling the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides using the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model： a case study of the Sabae Area, Japan

A number of statistical methods are typically used to effectively predict potential landslide distributions. In this study two multivariate statistical analysis methods were used （weights of evidence and logistic regression） to predict the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides in the Kamikawachi area of Sabae City, Fukui Prefecture, Japan. First, the dependent variable （shallow-seated landslides） was divided into presence and absence, and the independent variables （environmental factors such as slope and altitude） were categorized according to their characteristics. Then, using the weights of evidence （WE） method, the weights of pairs comprising presence （w^＋（i）） or absence （w^-（i））, and the contrast values for each category of independent variable （evidence）, were calculated, Using the method that integrated the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model, score values were calculated for each category of independent variable. Based on these contrast values, three models were selected to sum the score values of every gird in the study area. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis （ROC）, model 2 yielded the best fit for predicting the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslide hazards, with 89% correctness and a 54.5% hit ratio when the occurrence probability （OP） of landslides was 70%. The model was tested using data from an area close to the study region, and showed 94% correctness and a hit ratio of 45.7% when the OP of landslides was 70%. Finally, the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides, based on the OP, was mapped using a geographical information system.     

Experimental investigation of the elastic modulus of a fractal system—A model of fractured rocks

The elastic properties of a physical model representing a damaged rock matrix were studied using a square lattice deformed under tensile stress. The elastic modulusM of such a system varies in agreement with percolation theory as|x–x _c | ^f , wherex is the damage parameter andx _c the threshold value of the damage parameter,f3.6. Atxx _c the scale dependence ofM can be expressed asML ^–f/v , whereL is the size of the sample andv the correlation exponent in percolation theory.The experimental results are of interest in assessing elastic properties in earthquake focal zones and fault zones in general.     

An application of the LTP＿DSEF model to heavy precipitation forecasts of landfalling tropical cyclones over China in 2018

Recently, a track-similarity-based Dynamical-Statistical Ensemble Forecast(LTP_DSEF) model has been developed in an attempt to predict heavy rainfall from Landfalling Tropical cyclones(LTCs). In this study, the LTP_DSEF model is applied to predicting heavy precipitation associated with 10 LTCs occurring over China in 2018. The best forecast scheme of the model with optimized parameters is obtained after testing 3452 different schemes for the 10 LTCs. Then, its performance is compared to that of three operational dynamical models. Results show that the LTP_DSEF model has advantages over the three dynamical models in predicting heavy precipitation accumulated after landfall, especially for rainfall amounts greater than 250 mm. The model also provides superior or slightly inferior heavy rainfall forecast performance for individual LTCs compared to the three dynamical models. In particular, the LTP_DSEF model can predict heavy rainfall with valuable threat scores associated with certain LTCs, which is not possible with the three dynamical models. Moreover, the model can reasonably capture the distribution of heavier accumulated rainfall, albeit with widespread coverage compared to observations. The preliminary results suggest that the LTP_DSEF model can provide useful forecast guidance for heavy accumulated rainfall of LTCs despite its limited variables included in the model.     

Geometry and dynamics of the freshwater—seawater interface in a coastal aquifer in southeastern Spain

Abstract

The contact between freshwater and seawater in coastal aquifers is studied using a relatively simple model for homogeneous aquifers. However, for real aquifers it is not so simple. The desalination plant built to supply water to the city of Almería is situated over the aquifer in the southern part of the River Andarax Delta. Its design capacity is 1100 L s^?1, and it is supplied from boreholes pumping water from beneath the freshwater—seawater contact in this aquifer. Well logs kept over a period of two years have allowed us to accurately define the interface geometry of the freshwater—seawater contact. Lithological data collected from 31 boreholes have also indicated the existence of strata with low hydraulic conductivity, within others of high conductivity. During a simultaneous pumping test of six wells with 690 L s^?1 total discharge, electrical conductivity measurements showed the influx of seawater 6–10 m below sea level and a drawdown of the interface in the piezometers closest to the pumping wells.     

Location and moment tensor inversion of small earthquakes using 3D Green’s functions in models with rugged topography: application to the Longmenshan fault zone

With dense seismic arrays and advanced imaging methods, regional three-dimensional(3D) Earth models have become more accurate. It is now increasingly feasible and advantageous to use a 3D Earth model to better locate earthquakes and invert their source mechanisms by fitting synthetics to observed waveforms. In this study, we develop an approach to determine both the earthquake location and source mechanism from waveform information. The observed waveforms are filtered in different frequency bands and separated into windows for the individual phases. Instead of picking the arrival times, the traveltime differences are measured by cross-correlation between synthetic waveforms based on the 3D Earth model and observed waveforms. The earthquake location is determined by minimizing the cross-correlation traveltime differences. We then fix the horizontal location of the earthquake and perform a grid search in depth to determine the source mechanism at each point by fitting the synthetic and observed waveforms. This new method is verified by a synthetic test with noise added to the synthetic waveforms and a realistic station distribution. We apply this method to a series of M_W3.4–5.6 earthquakes in the Longmenshan fault(LMSF) zone, a region with rugged topography between the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau and the western part of the Sichuan basin. The results show that our solutions result in improved waveform fits compared to the source parameters from the catalogs we used and the location can be better constrained than the amplitude-only approach. Furthermore, the source solutions with realistic topography provide a better fit to the observed waveforms than those without the topography, indicating the need to take the topography into account in regions with rugged topography.     

Evaluation of volcanic reservoirs with the “QAPM mineral model” using a genetic algorithm

Gas-bearing volcanic reservoirs have been found in the deep Songliao Basin, China. Choosing proper interpretation parameters for log evaluation is difficult due to complicated mineral compositions and variable mineral contents. Based on the QAPF classification scheme given by IUGS, we propose a method to determine the mineral contents of volcanic rocks using log data and a genetic algorithm. According to the QAPF scheme, minerals in volcanic rocks are divided into five groups： Q（quartz）, A （Alkaline feldspar）, P （plagioclase）, M （mafic） and F （feldspathoid）. We propose a model called QAPM including porosity for the volumetric analysis of reservoirs. The log response equations for density, apparent neutron porosity, transit time, gamma ray and volume photoelectrical cross section index were first established with the mineral parameters obtained from the Schlumberger handbook of log mineral parameters. Then the volumes of the four minerals in the matrix were calculated using the genetic algorithm （GA）. The calculated porosity, based on the interpretation parameters, can be compared with core porosity, and the rock names given in the paper based on QAPF classification according to the four mineral contents are compatible with those from the chemical analysis of the core samples.