Space weather

Mike Hapgood and Peter Cargill report on topics under consideration at the RAS G-MIST discussion meeting held on 10 December 1999.     

全国地震前兆数据入库处理

详细介绍了前兆数据入库处理软件Doqzh的功能特点、 工作参数文件、 数据入库流程、 两种数据入库模式、 错误处理、 工作日志文件以及支持的观测日志文件格式等。 该软件可对多种前兆数据、 观测日志以及电子月报表等进行入库处理, 对数据入库操作进行优化, 大大提高了数据入库效率, 且实现了数据入库操作的全程自动化, 包括连接数据库服务器、 连接FTP服务器、 下载文件、 备份文件、 数据包解压缩、 入库、 记录数据压缩包统计信息、 退出程序等。 该软件是国家地震前兆台网中心数据处理系统的核心软件, 在国家地震前兆台网中心和多个省级前兆台网中心收到了很好的应用效果, 为全国地震前兆数据的汇集和共享以及中国地震局的大华北数据共享任务起到了关键的作用。     

地电场数据观测干扰排查分析

以洛阳地震台地电数字化观测资料为基础,阐述了地电场数据测量原理及其在分析中的应用,并通过对地电暴、避雷装置和电极故障3个地电场数据异常案例研究分析,得出当出现故障时应该遵循“替换法”和“逐步逼近法”原则.     

Stochastic multi-site generation of daily weather data

Spatial autocorrelation is a correlation between the values of a single variable, considering their geographical locations. This concept has successfully been used for multi-site generation of daily precipitation data (Khalili et al. in J Hydrometeorol 8(3):396–412, 2007). This paper presents an extension of this approach. It aims firstly to obtain an accurate reproduction of the spatial intermittence property in synthetic precipitation amounts, and then to extend the multi-site approach to the generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation data. Monthly spatial exponential functions have been developed for each weather station according to the spatial dependence of the occurrence processes over the watershed, in order to fulfill the spatial intermittence condition in the synthetic time series of precipitation amounts. As was the case for the precipitation processes, the multi-site generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation data is realized using spatially autocorrelated random numbers. These random numbers are incorporated into the weakly stationary generating process, as with the Richardson weather generator, and with no modifications made. Suitable spatial autocorrelations of random numbers allow the reproduction of the observed daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation correlations. The Peribonca River Basin watershed is used to test the performance of the proposed approaches. Results indicate that the spatial exponential functions succeeded in reproducing an accurate spatial intermittence in the synthetic precipitation amounts. The multi-site generation approach was successfully applied for the weather data, which were adequately generated, while maintaining efficient daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation correlations.     

Tests of data assimilation and data initialization for the purposes of short-range weather forecast

Summary The initialization and assimilation of input data were studied and tested by the adiabatic version of a simple numerical model for short-range weather forecast.The initialization was based on the utilization of a digital filter technique. The method succeeded in removing high-frequency oscillations from prognostic pressure fields. However, excessive smoothing deteriorated the accuracy of the prediction at the lowest levels of the atmosphere.The data assimilation was performed using the nudging method. Three versions of the nudging method in a splitting scheme were tested. The inclusion of the assimilation at the end of the integration step proved to be the best. The assimilation damped the oscillations of prognostic surface pressure fields and slightly improved the pressure prediction at the lowest levels of the atmosphere.     

Sensitivity of secular trends in precipitation data to observational errors

There has been considerable interest in estimating secular trends in precipitation data in various regions of the world. It is therefore important to ascertain the manner in which errors of observation affect estimated trends. For this purpose we have compared trends at 1219 stations in the contiguous United States for two data sets: (a) original observations, also called raw observations, and (b) the observations, adjusted to compensate for suspected errors. The adjustments were made at the National Climate Data Center, Asheville (Quinlan et al., 1987;karl andWilliams, 1987), In order to focus on the effects of observational errors we attempted to avoid the effects of filling of missing data by limiting the analysis to the period 1940–1984 for which the number of missing values is much smaller than earlier periods. A least-square linear regression was performed on the raw and adjusted data for each station and the slopes of the fitted lines were compared. The comparison was made for monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation values.The results for annual precipitation showed that 23 percent of the stations have trends of opposite signs in the raw and adjusted data. The trends were identical in annual data at only 11 percent of the stations. When monthly data are combined to form seasonal and annual averages the magnitude of the difference between the slopes of the adjusted and the raw observations generally increases, indicating that the errors in the individual monthly observations are correlated. When the station data were averaged to obtain state-wide averages, the effects of the errors became less pronounced in most of the states. These results indicate that obtaining trends in precipitation from station data is a more difficult problem than has been realized.     

Quantization analysis of weather radar data with synthetic rainfall

Quantization is a process by where continuous signals are transformed into discrete values. It is an important part of the signal processing involved in using weather radar. Technological advances have made it easier to increase the number of quantization levels, as witnessed by the replacement of a 3 bit system by an 8 bit system by the UK Meteorological Office. Research has been conducted in the past demonstrating the error statistics of quantized rainfall, although these studies have used real radar data. The novelty of this study is in using synthetic rain, generated with a Poisson cluster model to represent hourly rainfall, and subsequently disaggregated using a fractal cascade to a fine 5 min time scale. The advantage of this approach is the length of time series that can be generated far outweighs the limited duration of historical rainfall series, especially at such fine time scales. This provides sufficient rainfall data, especially high intensity rainfall, to say something statistically significant about the error statistics. The models are parameterised for different months and also for a non-seasonal set. Rainfall is then generated for a summer case, a winter case, and for the non-seasonal case. It is discovered that the error distribution varies significantly as the parameters change for 3 bit rainfall. This error distribution is relatively constant for 8 bit data, within its working range (up to 126 mm/h). At a fine time scale, such high intensity events are not uncommon. This knowledge is useful when investigating historical radar data at lower quantization levels, for the purpose of flood frequency analysis, and remains relevant, especially, if as some studies have shown, the occurrence of high intensity storms is likely to increase.     

Review of Precambrian paleomagnetic data for Europe

Some 36 paleomagnetic poles are available from Precambrian rock units from Europe, west of the Urals. They allow us to amplify Neuvonen's suggestions, and speculate on the pole path for the interval 1200–2000 my. In order to link younger Precambrian poles with Phanerozoic data, one interpretation is that a closed loop is required during the interval 500–1400 my. By comparison of pole paths for North America, Western Europe, and East and Southern Africa, the paleomagnetic evidence presently available tentatively suggests that these shield areas drifted independently during the later part of the Precambrian.     

蒙城地震台地电阻率数字化与模拟观测资料的对比分析

通过对蒙城地震台地电阻率数字化和模拟的标定资料、地电阻率观测数据、资料的年周期变化、以及数、模观测系统的系统差别等几个方面进行对比分析,为蒙城台多年的模拟与数字化资料综合使用以及数字化仪器替代模拟仪器观测提供依据.     

涉县地震台伸缩仪长短基线观测资料的对比分析

对涉县地震台伸缩仪NS向（短基线）和EW向（长基线）的伸缩仪数字化改造前后的观测资料,从记录资料的内在精度、潮汐因子和误差、年漂移量、格值重复精度等多方面进行了同分向和不同分向长短基线的对比分析,结果发现,SS-Y型伸缩仪的基线长度在10～15m时能基本满足洞体应变观测要求,且在某些方面还优于长基线,因此对于山洞不长的台站,也可以考虑安装该型伸缩仪.     

Results of comparison of predicted Earth tidal parameters and observational data

A comparative analysis of predicted values of delta factors and phase shifts of eight major tidal waves obtained using a newly developed domestic tidal prediction software ATLANTIDA3.1_2014, their observed values, and values calculated using the PREDICT software from the ETERNA3.4 package, averaging over nine oceanic tidal models, is carried out. According to various criteria, the results returned by our software proved to be on average closer to the observations on 14 superconducting gravimeters of the GGP network than the results calculated by the PREDICT software. It is shown that this result is obtained both by the use of a more modern oceanic tidal model (FES2012) and a new model of the variation of amplitude delta factors with latitude (Spiridonov, 2014a).     

利用地基观测对卫星观测电离层结构参数的定量验证研究

本文采用散点图、趋势线、相关系数及观测偏差等统计方法,利用COSMIC卫星和SPIDR提供的垂测仪观测的F₂层峰值电子密度数据,开展了综合统计及按季节、地方时和纬度的分类统计.统计结果显示:地基垂测仪与卫星观测到的相应的F₂层峰值电子密度数据具有很高的相关性,两者之间的相关系数高达0.95,相对偏差的平均值为-3.38%,标准差为19.54%.基于上述研究结果,提出了利用地面垂测仪观测数据验证卫星观测的电离层结构参数的方法,并给出了定性的判别依据和定量的判别标准,可在我国电磁监测试验卫星发射后,为F₂层峰值电子密度观测数据的真实性和有效性提供检验方法和保障.      

Accuracy evaluation of weather data generation and disaggregation methods at finer timescales

Availability of weather data at finer timescales such as hourly is vital in the application of dynamic physical and biological models. In this study, we have examined the suitability of various approaches (deterministic periodic versus stochastic) of disaggregating daily weather data into hourly data in the Cedar Creek watershed, TX, USA. We found the cosine function suitable to disaggregate daily maximum and minimum temperatures and wind speed data into respective hourly data. We also used a common logarithmic equation to compute vapor pressures from temperature data, and hence relative humidity (the ratio between actual and saturated vapor pressures multiplied by 100). Disaggregation following uniform distribution of daily rainfall over 24 h did not reproduce most statistical parameters computed from observed hourly rainfall data onsite. Conversely, both stochastic models formulated based on univariate (Hyetos) and multivariate (MuDRain) processes mimicked the measured hourly rainfall distributions very well. Overall, we found the MuDRain model superior, compared to other models to disaggregate daily rainfall data into hourly data.     

基于陆态网络GPS数据的电离层空间天气监测与研究

中国大陆构造环境监测网络(简称陆态网络)是以全球卫星导航定位系统(GNSS)为主,辅以多种空间观测技术,实时动态监测大陆构造环境变化,探求其对资源、环境和灾害的影响的地球科学综合观测网络.基于陆态网络约200个基准站的GPS观测数据,本文探讨了其在电离层空间天气监测与研究方面的应用.包括磁暴期间电离层暴扰动形态,大尺度电离层行进式扰动,太阳耀斑引起的电离层骚扰和低纬电离层不规则体结构等.研究结果表明:陆态网络布局合理,观测数据质量良好,完全可用于中国及周边地区电离层空间天气监测与研究,为进一步开展我国电离层空间天气预警和预报奠定了观测基础.     

基于陆态网络GPS数据的电离层空间天气监测与研究

中国大陆构造环境监测网络(简称陆态网络)是以全球卫星导航定位系统(GNSS)为主,辅以多种空间观测技术,实时动态监测大陆构造环境变化,探求其对资源、环境和灾害的影响的地球科学综合观测网络.基于陆态网络约200个基准站的GPS观测数据,本文探讨了其在电离层空间天气监测与研究方面的应用.包括磁暴期间电离层暴扰动形态,大尺度电离层行进式扰动,太阳耀斑引起的电离层骚扰和低纬电离层不规则体结构等.研究结果表明:陆态网络布局合理,观测数据质量良好,完全可用于中国及周边地区电离层空间天气监测与研究,为进一步开展我国电离层空间天气预警和预报奠定了观测基础.     

Prompt derivation of TEC from GEONET data for space weather monitoring in Japan

Continuous monitoring of ionospheric conditions is essential to monitoring and forecasting space weather. The worldwide use of global navigation satellite systems like the Gobal Positioning System (GPS) makes it possible to continuously monitor the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere and plasmasphere up to a height of about 20,000 km. We have developed a system for deriving the TEC from GEONET data rapidly and we use the TEC distribution over Japan in the daily operations of the Space Weather Forecast Center at NICT (RWC Tokyo of ISES). Using instrumental biases from a few days before enables us to drastically shorten the processing time for deriving TEC. The latest TEC values (with a delay of about 1 h) are obtained every 3 h, and most of the values are within 2 TEC units of the actual TEC. We have found our system for deriving TEC rapidly to be useful for continuously monitoring the progress of ionospheric storms under any ionospheric conditions, even those under which the usual ionosonde observations are unable to obtain F-region profiles.     

南昌地震台大地电场数据质量分析

以南昌地震台2008年以来的地电场观测资料为研究对象,在对比分析观测数据质量的基础上,阐明影响地电场观测的主要干扰因素,并分析了造成观测资料质量不高的原因,主要是由于观测场地不平,6个电极所处的埋设环境存在较大差异引起的。     

王3井水氡、水汞观测资料分析

对王3井水氡、水汞开始观测以来的资料进行了系统清理,针对近几年该井水氡观测资料出现的年动态和下降变化、水汞观测值较低的现象进行了分析,认为王3井水氡观测值出现的年动态变化和水汞观测值2001年的下降与增上数字化观测项目而进行的井-排水系统的改造有关;而2004年下半年水氡、水汞观测值的下降与周良1井的开采有关。文中提出了对王3井的一些改造措施,同时提出了天津水化观测井的重新选井问题。