Reconstructing eruptive source parameters from tephra deposit: a numerical study of medium-sized explosive eruptions at Etna volcano

Since the 1970s, multiple reconstruction techniques have been proposed and are currently used, to extrapolate and quantify eruptive parameters from sampled tephra fall deposit datasets. Atmospheric transport and deposition processes strongly control the spatial distribution of tephra deposit; therefore, a large uncertainty affects mass derived estimations especially for fall layer that are not well exposed. This paper has two main aims: the first is to analyse the sensitivity to the deposit sampling strategy of reconstruction techniques. The second is to assess whether there are differences between the modelled values for emitted mass and grainsize, versus values estimated from the deposits. We find significant differences and propose a new correction strategy. A numerical approach is demonstrated by simulating with a dispersal code a mild explosive event occurring at Mt. Etna on 24 November 2006. Eruptive parameters are reconstructed by an inversion information collected after the eruption. A full synthetic deposit is created by integrating the deposited mass computed by the model over the computational domain (i.e., an area of 7.5 × 10⁴ km ²). A statistical analysis based on 2000 sampling tests of 50 sampling points shows a large variability, up to 50 % for all the reconstruction techniques. Moreover, for some test examples Power Law errors are larger than estimated uncertainty. A similar analysis, on simulated grain-size classes, shows how spatial sampling limitations strongly reduce the utility of available information on the total grain size distribution. For example, information on particles coarser than ?(?4) is completely lost when sampling at 1.5 km from the vent for all columns with heights less than 2000 m above the vent. To correct for this effect an optimal sampling strategy and a new reconstruction method are presented. A sensitivity study shows that our method can be extended to a wide range of eruptive scenarios including those in which aggregation processes are important. The new correction method allows an estimate of the deficiency for each simulated class in calculated mass deposited, providing reliable estimation of uncertainties in the reconstructed total (whole deposit) grainsize distribution.     

A quantitative uncertainty assessment of eruptive parameters derived from tephra deposits: the example of two large eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano,Ecuador

Physical parameters of explosive eruptions are typically derived from tephra deposits. However, the characterization of a given eruption relies strongly on the quality of the dataset used, the strategy chosen to obtain and process field data and the particular model considered to derive eruptive parameters. As a result, eruptive parameters are typically affected by a certain level of uncertainty and should not be considered as absolute values. Unfortunately, such uncertainty is difficult to assess because it depends on several factors and propagates from field sampling to the application and interpretation of dispersal models. Characterization of explosive eruptions is made even more difficult when tephra deposits are poorly exposed and only medial data are available. In this paper, we present a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty associated with the characterization of tephra deposits generated by the two largest eruptions of the last 2,000 years of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador. In particular, we have investigated the effects of the determination of the maximum clast on the compilation of isopleth maps, and, therefore, on the characterization of plume height. We have also compared the results obtained from the application of different models for the determination of both plume height and erupted volume and for the eruption classification. Finally, we have investigated the uncertainty propagation into the calculation of mass eruption rate and eruption duration. We have found that for our case study, the determination of plume height from isopleth maps is more sensitive to the averaging techniques used to define the maximum clast than to the choice of dispersal models used (i.e. models of Carey and Sparks 1986; Pyle 1989) and that even the application of the same dispersal model can result in plume height discrepancies if different isopleth lines are used (i.e. model of Carey and Sparks 1986). However, the uncertainties associated with the determination of erupted mass, and, as a result, of the eruption duration, are larger than the uncertainties associated with the determination of plume height. Mass eruption rate is also associated with larger uncertainties than the determination of plume height because it is related to the fourth power of plume height. Eruption classification is also affected by data processing. In particular, uncertainties associated with the compilation of isopleth maps affect the eruption classification proposed by Pyle (1989), whereas the VEI classification is affected by the uncertainties resulting from the determination of erupted mass. Finally, we have found that analytical and empirical models should be used together for a more reliable characterization of explosive eruptions. In fact, explosive eruptions would be characterized better by a range of parameters instead of absolute values for erupted mass, plume height, mass eruption rate and eruption duration. A standardization of field sampling would also reduce the uncertainties associated with eruption characterization.     

Volume estimation of the 1998 flank collapse at Casita volcano,Nicaragua: a comparison of photogrammetric and conventional techniques

In October 1998 a precipitation‐triggered flank collapse occurred at Casita volcano, Nicaragua, leading to a devastating lahar. In this paper the failure volume was calculated using a range of methods. Several pre‐ and post‐failure digital elevation models (DEMs) were created, based on photogrammetric, cartometric and surveying data. The wide range in resulting volumes prompted an assessment of the accuracies and potential problems associated with each of the datasets and techniques used. The best estimate for the failure volume is 1·6 × 10⁶ m³. It is based on a vegetation‐corrected pre‐failure DEM, generated using automated digital photogrammetry, and a post‐failure surface based on a field survey carried out with a Total Station. The volume figure is approximately an order of magnitude higher than values reported in previous publications, all of which are based solely on field estimates. This demonstrates that values reported in the literature, if they are not based on rigorous quantitative analysis, must be regarded with caution. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hematite spherules in basaltic tephra altered under aqueous, acid-sulfate conditions on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawaii: Possible clues for the occurrence of hematite-rich spherules in the Burns formation at Meridiani Planum, Mars

Iron-rich spherules (> 90% Fe₂O₃ from electron microprobe analyses) ∼10-100 μm in diameter are found within sulfate-rich rocks formed by aqueous, acid-sulfate alteration of basaltic tephra on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawaii. Although some spherules are nearly pure Fe, most have two concentric compositional zones, with the core having a higher Fe / Al ratio than the rim. Oxide totals less than 100% (93-99%) suggest structural H₂O and/or OH^− 1. The transmission Mössbauer spectrum of a spherule-rich separate is dominated by a hematite (α-Fe₂O₃) sextet whose peaks are skewed toward zero velocity. Skewing is consistent with Al³⁺ for Fe³⁺ substitution and structural H₂O and/or OH^− 1. The grey color of the spherules implies specular hematite. Whole-rock powder X-ray diffraction spectra are dominated by peaks from smectite and the hydroxy sulfate mineral natroalunite as alteration products and plagioclase feldspar that was present in the precursor basaltic tephra. Whether spherule formation proceeded directly from basaltic material in one event (dissolution of basaltic material and precipitation of hematite spherules) or whether spherule formation required more than one event (formation of Fe-bearing sulfate rock and subsequent hydrolysis to hematite) is not currently constrained. By analogy, a formation pathway for the hematite spherules in sulfate-rich outcrops at Meridiani Planum on Mars (the Burns formation) is aqueous alteration of basaltic precursor material under acid-sulfate conditions. Although hydrothermal conditions are present on Mauna Kea, such conditions may not be required for spherule formation on Mars if the time interval for hydrolysis at lower temperatures is sufficiently long.     

Geochemistry of volcanic and hydrothermal gases of Mutnovsky volcano,Kamchatka: evidence for mantle,slab and atmosphere contributions to fluids of a typical arc volcano

We report chemical compositions (major and trace components including light hydrocarbons), hydrogen, oxygen, helium and nitrogen isotope ratios of volcanic and geothermal fluids of Mutnovsky volcano, Kamchatka. Several aspects of the geochemistry of fluids are discussed: chemical equilibria, mixing of fluids from different sources, evaluation of the parent magmatic gas composition and contributions to magmatic vapors of fluids from different reservoirs of the Kamchatkan subduction zone. Among reactive species, hydrogen and carbon monoxide in volcanic vapors are chemically equilibrated at temperatures >300°C with the SO₂-H₂S redox-pair. A metastable equilibrium between saturated and unsaturated light hydrocarbons is attained at close to discharge temperatures. Methane is disequilibrated. Three different sources of fluids from three fumarolic fields in the Mutnovsky craters can be distinguished: (1) magmatic gas from a large convecting magma body discharging through Active Funnel, a young crater with the hottest fumaroles (up to 620°C) contributing ~80% to the total volcanic gas output; (2) volcanic fluid from a separate shallow magma body beneath the Bottom Field of the main crater (96–280°C fumaroles); and (3) hydrothermal fluid with a high relative and absolute concentrations of CH₄ from the Upper Field in the main crater (96–285°C fumaroles). The composition of the parent magmatic gas is estimated using water isotopes and correlations between He and other components in the Active Funnel gases. The He-Ar-N₂ systematics of volcanic and hydrothermal fluids of Mutnovsky are consistent with a large slab-derived sedimentary nitrogen input for the nitrogen inventory, and we calculate that only ~1% of the magmatic N₂ has a mantle origin and <<1% is derived from the arc crust.     

Distal record of multi-sourced tephra in Onepoto Basin,Auckland, New Zealand: implications for volcanic chronology,frequency and hazards

We have documented 80 tephra beds dating from ca. 9.5 to >50 ka, contained within continuously deposited palaeolake sediments from Onepoto Basin, a volcanic explosion crater in Auckland, New Zealand. The known sources for distal (>190 km from vent) tephra include the rhyolitic Taupo Volcanic Centre (4) and Okataina Volcanic Centre (14), and the andesitic Taranaki volcano (40) and Tongariro Volcanic Centre (3). The record provides evidence for four new events between ca. 50 and 28 ka (Mangaone Subgroup) suggesting Okataina was more active than previously known. The tephra record also greatly extends the known northern dispersal of other Mangaone Subgroup tephra. Ten rhyolitic tephra pre-date the Rotoehu eruption (>ca. 50 ka), and some are chemically dissimilar to post-50 ka rhyolites. Some of these older tephra were produced by large-magnitude events; however, their source remains uncertain. Eight tephra from the local basaltic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) are also identified. Interpolation of sedimentation rates allow us to estimate the timing of 12 major explosive eruptions from Taranaki volcano in the 27.5-9.5-ka period. In addition, 28 older events are recognised. The tephra are trachytic to rhyolitic in composition. All have high K₂O contents (>3 wt%), and there are no temporal trends. This contrasts with the proximal lava record that shows a trend of increasing K₂O with time. By combining the Onepoto tephra record with that of the previously documented Pukaki crater, 15 AVF basaltic fall events are constrained at: 34.6, 30.9, 29.6, 29.6, 25.7, 25.2, 24.2, 23.8, 19.4, 19.4, 15.8 and 14.5 ka, and three pre-50 ka events. This provides some of the best age constraints for the AVF, and the only reliable data for hazard recurrence calculations. The minimum event frequency of both distal and local fall events can be estimated, and demonstrates the Auckland City region is frequently impacted by ash fall from many volcanoes.     

Application of distributed hydrological models for predictions in ungauged basins: a method to quantify predictive uncertainty

Stream flow predictions in ungauged basins are one of the most challenging tasks in surface water hydrology because of nonavailability of data and system heterogeneity. This study proposes a method to quantify stream flow predictive uncertainty of distributed hydrologic models for ungauged basins. The method is based on the concepts of deriving probability distribution of model's sensitive parameters by using measured data from a gauged basin and transferring the distribution to hydrologically similar ungauged basins for stream flow predictions. A Monte Carlo simulation of the hydrologic model using sampled parameter sets with assumed probability distribution is conducted. The posterior probability distributions of the sensitive parameters are then computed using a Bayesian approach. In addition, preselected threshold values of likelihood measure of simulations are employed for sizing the parameter range, which helps reduce the predictive uncertainty. The proposed method is illustrated through two case studies using two hydrologically independent sub‐basins in the Cedar Creek watershed located in Texas, USA, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The probability distribution of the SWAT parameters is derived from the data from one of the sub‐basins and is applied for simulation in the other sub‐basin considered as pseudo‐ungauged. In order to assess the robustness of the method, the numerical exercise is repeated by reversing the gauged and pseudo‐ungauged basins. The results are subsequently compared with the measured stream flow from the sub‐basins. It is observed that the measured stream flow in the pseudo‐ungauged basin lies well within the estimated confidence band of predicted stream flow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental hazards of fluoride in volcanic ash: a case study from Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

The vent-hosted hydrothermal system of Ruapehu volcano is normally covered by a c. 10 million m³ acidic crater lake where volcanic gases accumulate. Through analysis of eruption observations, granulometry, mineralogy and chemistry of volcanic ash from the 1995–1996 Ruapehu eruptions we report on the varying influences on environmental hazards associated with the deposits. All measured parameters are more dependent on the eruptive style than on distance from the vent. Early phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruption phases from crater lakes similar to that on Ruapehu are likely to contain the greatest concentrations of environmentally significant elements, especially sulphur and fluoride. These elements are contained within altered xenolithic material extracted from the hydrothermal system by steam explosions, as well as in residue hydrothermal fluids adsorbed on to particle surfaces. In particular, total F in the ash may be enriched by a factor of 6 relative to original magmatic contents, although immediately soluble F does not show such dramatic increases. Highly soluble NaF and CaSiF₆ phases, demonstrated to be the carriers of ‘available’ F in purely magmatic eruptive systems, are probably not dominant in the products of phreatomagmatic eruptions through hydrothermal systems. Instead, slowly soluble compounds such as CaF₂, AlF₃ and Ca₅(PO₄)₃F dominate. Fluoride in these phases is released over longer periods, where only one third is leached in a single 24-h water extraction. This implies that estimation of soluble F in such ashes based on a single leach leads to underestimation of the F impact, especially of a potential longer-term environmental hazard. In addition, a large proportion of the total F in the ash is apparently soluble in the digestive system of grazing animals. In the Ruapehu case this led to several thousand sheep deaths from fluorosis.     

Geology of the Heimaey volcanic centre, south Iceland: early evolution of a central volcano in a propagating rift?

Heimaey is the southernmost and also the youngest of nine volcanic centres in the southward-propagating Eastern Volcanic Zone, Iceland. The island of Heimaey belongs to the Vestmannaeyjar volcanic system (850 km²) and is situated 10 km off the south coast of Iceland. Although Heimaey probably started to form during the Upper Pleistocene all the exposed subaerial volcanics (10 monogenetic vents covering an area of 13.4 km²) are of Holocene age. Heimaey is composed of roughly equal amounts of tuff/tuff-breccias and lavas as most eruptions involve both a phreatomagmatic and an effusive phase. The compositions of the extrusives are predominantly alkali basalts belonging to the sodic series. Repeated eruptions on Heimaey, and the occurrence of slightly more evolved rocks (i.e. hawaiite approaching mugearite), might indicate that the island is in an early stage of forming a central volcano in the Vestmannaeyjar system. This is further substantiated by the development of a magma chamber at 10–20 km depth during the most recent eruption in 1973 and by the fact that the average volume of material produced in a single eruption on Heimaey is 0.32 km³ (dense rock equivalent), which is twice the value reported for the Vestmannaeyjar system as a whole. We find no support for the previously postulated episodic behaviour of the volcanism in the Vestmannaeyjar system. However, the oldest units exposed above sea level, i.e. the Norðurklettar ridge, probably formed over a 500-year interval during the deglaciation of southern Iceland. The absence of equilibrium phenocryst assemblages in the Heimaey lavas suggests that magma rose quickly from depth, without long-time ponding in shallow-seated crustal magma chambers. Eruptions on Heimaey have occurred along two main lineaments (N45°E and N65°E), which indicate that it is seismic events associated with the southward propagation of the Eastern Volcanic Zone that open pathways for the magma to reach the surface. Continuing southward propagation of the Eastern Volcanic Zone suggests that the frequency of volcanic eruptions in the Vestmannaeyjar system might increase with time, and that Heimaey may develop into a central volcano like the mature volcanic centres situated on the Icelandic mainland.     

Detection of microwave emission due to rock fracture as a new tool for geophysics: A field test at a volcano in Miyake Island,Japan

This paper describes a field test to verify a newly discovered phenomenon of microwave emission due to rock fracture in a volcano. The field test was carried out on Miyake Island, 150 km south of Tokyo. The main objective of the test was to investigate the applicability of the phenomenon to the study of geophysics, volcanology, and seismology by extending observations of this phenomenological occurrence from the laboratory to the natural field.We installed measuring systems for 300 MHz, 2 GHz, and 18 GHz-bands on the mountain top and mountain foot in order to discriminate local events from regional and global events. The systems include deliberate data subsystems that store slowly sampled data in the long term, and fast sampled data when triggered. We successfully obtained data from January to February 2008. During this period, characteristic microwave pulses were intermittently detected at 300 MHz. Two photographs taken before and after this period revealed that a considerably large-scale collapse occurred on the crater cliff. Moreover, seismograms obtained by nearby observatories strongly suggest that the crater subsidence occurred simultaneously with microwave signals on the same day during the observation period.For confirmation of the microwave emission caused by rock fracture, these microwave signals must be clearly discriminated from noise, interferences, and other disturbances. We carefully discriminated the microwave data taken at the mountaintop and foot, checked the lightning strike data around the island, and consequently concluded that these microwave signals could not be attributed to lightning. Artificial interferences were discriminated by the nature of their waveforms. Thus, we inferred that the signals detected at 300 MHz were due to rock fractures during cliff collapses. This result may provide a useful new tool for geoscientists and for the mitigation of natural hazards.     

Occurrence conditions of hyperpycnal flows, and their significance for organic-matter sedimentation in a Holocene estuary, Niigata Plain, Central Japan

River floods influence sedimentary environments and ecosystems from the terrestrial to the deep-marine. This study documents the occurrence conditions of hyperpycnal flows generated by river floods and related organic-matter sedimentation for Holocene sediments of the Niigata Plain, Central Japan, based on detailed sedimentary facies, total sulfur and total organic carbon content, diatom assemblages and organic-matter composition. Holocene sediments of the Niigata Plain consist of sand, mud and gravel that were deposited in estuarine and fluvial systems during a sea-level rise (15 000–6800 years BP) and stillstand (after 6800 years BP) following the Last Glacial Maximum. Hyperpycnites are present in the upper part of the estuarine lagoon sediments. The depositional age is considered to be about 5000 years BP. The hyperpycnites comprise two successions of a top fining-up unit and a basal coarsening-up unit, and include abundant terrigenous organic matter and freshwater diatoms. A large volume of freshwater is inferred to have flowed into the lagoon during deposition of the upper part of the lagoon sediments. In consequence, hyperpycnal flows may have readily formed in the lagoon, because the halocline was weak. The hyperpycnal flows also produced a layer of concentrated terrigenous organic matter in the uppermost part of the hyperpycnites. The abundant organic matter on the estuarine floor is inferred to have produced anoxic bottom conditions owing to oxidative decomposition by benthic bacteria.     

Predictions in ungauged basins: an approach for regionalization of hydrological models considering the probability distribution of model parameters

Regionalization of model parameters by developing appropriate functional relationship between the parameters and basin characteristics is one of the potential approaches to employ hydrological models in ungauged basins. While this is a widely accepted procedure, the uniqueness of the watersheds and the equifinality of parameters bring lot of uncertainty in the simulations in ungauged basins. This study proposes a method of regionalization based on the probability distribution function of model parameters, which accounts the variability in the catchment characteristics. It is envisaged that the probability distribution function represents the characteristics of the model parameter, and when regionalized the earlier concerns can be addressed appropriately. The method employs probability distribution of parameters, derived from gauged basins, to regionalize by regressing them against the catchment attributes. These regional functions are used to develop the parameter characteristics in ungauged basins based on the catchment attributes. The proposed method is illustrated using soil water assessment tool model for an ungauged basin prediction. For this numerical exercise, eight different watersheds spanning across different climatic settings in the USA are considered. While all the basins considered in this study were gauged, one of them was assumed to be ungauged (pseudo-ungauged) in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in ungauged basin simulation. The process was repeated by considering representative basins from different climatic and landuse scenarios as pseudo-ungauged. The results of the study indicated that the ensemble simulations in the ungauged basins were closely matching with the observed streamflow. The simulation efficiency varied between 57 and 61 % in ungauged basins. The regional function was able to generate the parameter characteristics that were closely matching with the original probability distribution derived from observed streamflow data.     

The role of GPR techniques in determining ice cave properties: Peña Castil ice cave,Picos de Europa

The structure and ice content of ice caves are poorly understood. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) can provide useful insights but has only rarely been applied to ice caves. This paper interprets GPR images (radargrams) in terms of internal structure, stratification, compaction, thickness and volume of the ice block in the Peña Castil ice cave (Central Massif of Picos de Europa, northern Spain), providing the endokarst geometry of the ice cave in GPR data reflections. Eight radargrams were obtained by applying a shielded ground‐coupled antenna with a nominal frequency of 400 MHz. Although the radargrams do not depict the ice–basal bedrock interface, they suggest that the ice block is at least 54 m deep and similarly thick. Some curved reflection signatures suggest a potential vertical displacement in the block of ice, and thus certain dynamics in the ice body. Other images show numerous interbedded clasts and thin sediment layers imaged as banded reflections. In this particular cave a direct visual inspection of the ice stratigraphy is a difficult task but GPR provides clear reflectivity patterns of some of its internal features, making GPR a suitable instrument for this and future studies to achieve a better and broader understanding of the internal behavior of ice caves.     

Geology and geochemistry of lavas at Nekoma volcano: Implications for origin of Quaternary low-K andesite in the north-eastern Honshu arc, Japan

Abstract Nekoma volcano forms part of the arc axis volcanic array of the North-eastern Honshu arc, Japan, which is commonly characterized by medium-K lava suites. However, Nekoma is exceptional because many of its lavas are low-K. This anomaly has been a matter of debate. Nekoma was active from 1.1 to 0.35 Ma. The volcano consists of thick andesite flows and domes associated with block and ash flow deposits produced during lava dome formation. A horseshoe-shaped collapse caldera was formed at the summit and small lava domes extruded into the caldera. Stratigraphy, published K–Ar ages, and tephrochronology define three stages of volcanic activity, about 1.1 Ma (Stage 1), 0.8–0.6 Ma (Stage 2) and 0.45–0.35 Ma (Stage 3; post caldera stage). Low-K andesites occur in all stages. Extremely low-K andesite was also associated in Stage 2 and medium-K andesite was dominant in Stage 3. In general, lavas changed from low-K to medium-K after caldera formation. Geochemical study of the Nekoma lavas shows that both low-K and medium-K lavas are isotopically similar and were derived from a common source. Adatara and Azuma volcanoes, which lie close to Nekoma, also have both low-K and medium-K andesites. However, Sr isotope ratios or temporal-spatial variations in K-level lava classification vary between the three centers. Comparisons of K suites and Sr isotope ratios with frontal arc volcanoes in North-east–Honshu suggest source heterogeneity existed in both medium- and low-K suites. The K contents of lavas and their Sr isotopes are not simply related. This requires re-examination of models for chemical variation of andesites in arcs.     

Application of wavelet-artificial intelligence hybrid models for water quality prediction: a case study in Aji-Chay River,Iran

The accuracy of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), wavelet-ANN and wavelet-ANFIS in predicting monthly water salinity levels of northwest Iran’s Aji-Chay River was assessed. The models were calibrated, validated and tested using different subsets of monthly records (October 1983 to September 2011) of individual solute (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, SO₄ ^2? and Cl^?) concentrations (input parameters, meq L^?1), and electrical conductivity-based salinity levels (output parameter, µS cm^?1), collected by the East Azarbaijan regional water authority. Based on the statistical criteria of coefficient of determination (R²), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSC) and threshold statistics (TS) the ANFIS model was found to outperform the ANN model. To develop coupled wavelet-AI models, the original observed data series was decomposed into sub-time series using Daubechies, Symlet or Haar mother wavelets of different lengths (order), each implemented at three levels. To predict salinity input parameter series were used as input variables in different wavelet order/level-AI model combinations. Hybrid wavelet-ANFIS (R² = 0.9967, NRMSE = 2.9 × 10^?5 and NSC = 0.9951) and wavelet-ANN (R² = 0.996, NRMSE = 3.77 × 10^?5 and NSC = 0.9946) models implementing the db4 mother wavelet decomposition outperformed the ANFIS (R² = 0.9954, NRMSE = 3.77 × 10^?5 and NSC = 0.9914) and ANN (R² = 0.9936, NRMSE = 3.99 × 10^?5 and NSC = 0.9903) models.     

中国地震预报论坛 ——2020年地震&火山联合学术交流

1 中国地震预报论坛 中国地震学会地震预报专业委员会自成立之初即每年举办学术交流会.起初参加年度学术交流的专家主要是地震预报专业委员会的委员,就地震会商会上不能解决的某些地震预报日常工作问题进行交流.2012年,马瑾院士撰文提出构造物理实验"地震"的亚失稳问题.2012年5月,为了响应中国地震局党组关于地震监测与预报结...     

Application of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to volcano mapping in the humid tropics: a case study in East Java, Indonesia

 Volcanoes in humid tropical environments are frequently cloud covered, typically densely vegetated and rapidly eroded. These factors complicate field and laboratory studies and even the basic identification of potentially active volcanoes. Numerous previous studies have highlighted the potential value of radar remote sensing for volcanology in equatorial regions. Here, cloud- and vegetation-penetrating L_HH-band (λ≈24 cm) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the Japanese Earth Resources Satellite (JERS-1) are used to investigate persistently active volcanoes and prehistoric calderas in East Java, Indonesia. The L_HH-band JERS-1 SAR produces high-spatial-resolution (18 m) imagery with relatively high incidence angle that highlights structures and topographic variations at or greater than the wavelength scale while minimising geometrical distortions such as layover and foreshortening. These images, along with Internet browse data derived from the Canadian RADARSAT mission, provide new evidence relating regional tectonics to volcanism throughout East Java. Volcanic events, such as caldera collapse at the Tengger caldera, appear to have been partly controlled by northwest-aligned faults related to intra-arc sedimentary basins. Similar regional controls appear important at historically active Lamongan volcano, which is encircled by numerous flank maars and cinder cones. A previously undocumented pyroclastic sheet and debris avalanche deposit from the Jambangan caldera complex is also manifested in the synoptic radar images. At the currently active Semeru volcano these data permit identification of recent pyroclastic flow and lahar deposits. Radar data therefore offer a valuable tool for mapping and hazard assessment at late Quaternary volcanoes. The criteria developed in the analysis here could be applied to other regions in the humid tropics. Received: 25 June 1998 / Accepted: 20 January 1999     

The application of caesium‐137 measurements to investigate floodplain deposition in a large semi‐arid catchment in Queensland,Australia: a low‐fallout environment

Floodplains comprise geomorphologically important sources and sinks for sediments and associated pollutants, yet the sedimentology of large dryland floodplains is not well understood. Processes occurring on such floodplains are often difficult to observe, and techniques used to investigate smaller perennial floodplains are often not practical in these environments. This study assesses the utility of ¹³⁷Cs inventory and depth‐profile techniques for determining relative amounts of floodplain sedimentation in the Fitzroy River, northeastern Australia; a 143 000 km² semi‐arid river system. Caesium‐137 inventories were calculated for floodplain and reference location bulk soil cores collected from four sites. Depth profiles of ¹³⁷Cs concentration from each floodplain site and a reference location were recorded. The areal density of ¹³⁷Cs at reference locations ranged from 13 to 978 Bq m^–2 (0–1367 Bq m^–2 at the 95% confidence interval), and the mean value ± 2 (standard error of the mean) was 436 ± 264 Bq m^–2, similar to published data from other Southern Hemisphere locations. Floodplain inventories ranged from 68 to 1142 Bq m^–2 (0–1692 Bq m^–2 at the 95% confidence interval), essentially falling within the range of reference inventory values, thus preventing calculation of erosion or deposition. Depth‐profiles of ¹³⁷Cs concentration indicate erosion at one site and over 66 cm of deposition at another since 1954. Analysis of ^239+240Pu concentrations in a depositional core substantiated the interpretation made from ¹³⁷Cs data, and depict a more tightly constrained peak in concentration. Average annual deposition rates range from 0 to 15 mm. The similarity between floodplain and reference bulk inventories does not necessarily indicate a lack of erosion or deposition, due to low ¹³⁷Cs fallout in the region and associated high measurement uncertainties, and a likely influence of gully and bank eroded sediments with no or limited adsorbed ¹³⁷Cs. In this low‐fallout environment, detailed depth‐profile data are necessary for investigating sedimentation using ¹³⁷Cs. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.