山西断陷盆地带与灾害高风险区

山西省是我国地震、洪涝、气象和地质灾害及农作物生物灾害等众灾频发的地区.研究表明，山西断陷盆地带的形成与发展，为这些灾害的孕育发生创造了有利环境和条件，致使盆地地区成为山西地震、洪涝、气象和地质灾害及农业生物灾害等众灾频发，且相互作用、相互强化最严重的地区；加之盆地地区恰是山西人口、工农业生产和社会经济财产最集中的部位，两方面因素的共同影响，使得该地区成为山西最严重的灾害高风险区. 为了减轻山西省的自然灾害，保障其社会经济可持续发展，必须将盆地地区作为山西省的减灾重点区域，并进行综合减灾.      

The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China

Introduction Since 1920s, with increasing awareness of disaster prevention and reduction in various as-pects and gradually deepened development of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) activities in China, the role and position of disaster risk analysis and risk management work are increasingly prominent. In the final report of the IDNDR activities in 1999, the Science and Technology Committee of IDNDR had presented 5 challenge fields, which the international dis…     

一个指挥系统的信息网络地震安全计划与实施

根据收集的美国FEMA等机构有关地震中信息网络运行的经验教训资料,综述了自然灾害和人为事件对信息网络系统冲击的对策研究。介绍了对一个灾难中指挥系统地震信息安全计划的自我风险评估。通过制定地震信息安全收集和传播计划,有效降低信息网络管理的风险。详细介绍了指挥系统信息网络的地震信息安全计划、突发事件响应计划和灾难恢复计划的编制程序。     

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in the Yangtze River Delta, China

China is exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, and disaster losses have escalated over the past decade. Owing to the pressure from natural disasters, along with changes in climate, social conditions, and regional environment, assessment of social vulnerability (SV) to natural hazards has become increasingly urgent for risk management and sustainable development in China. This paper presents a new method for quantifying SV based on the projection pursuit cluster (PPC) model. A reference social vulnerability index (SVI) at the county level was created for the Yangtze River Delta area in China for 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2009. The result of social vulnerability assessment was validated using data of actual losses from natural disasters. The primary findings are as follows: (i) In the study area, the major factors that impact SVI are regional per capita GDP and per capita income. (ii) The study area was more vulnerable in 1995 than in later years. SV of the whole region had decreased over the study period. (iii) Most part of Shanghai and the southeast part of Jiangsu Province had been the least vulnerable within the region. From this least vulnerable zone to the periphery of the region, the situation deteriorated. The highest SVI values in all evaluated years were found in the northern, western, or southern tips of the Yangtze River Delta.     

Quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment with vulnerability surface and hazard joint return period

Risk assessment plays an important role in disaster risk management. Existing multi-hazard risk assessment models are often qualitative or semi-quantitative in nature and used for comparative study of regional risk levels. They cannot estimate directly probability of disaster losses from the joint impact of several hazards. In this paper, a quantitative approach of multi-hazard risk assessment based on vulnerability surface and joint return period of hazards is put forward to assess the risk of crop losses in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. The impact of strong wind and flood, the two most prominent agricultural hazards in the area, is analyzed. The multi-hazard risk assessment process consists of three steps. First, a vulnerability surface, which denotes the functional relationship between the intensity of the hazards and disaster losses, was built using the crop losses data for losses caused by strong wind and flood in the recent 30 years. Second, the joint probability distribution of strong wind and flood was established using the copula functions. Finally, risk curves that show the probability of crop losses in this multi-hazard context at four case study sites were calculated according to the joint return period of hazards and the vulnerability surface. The risk assessment result of crop losses provides a useful reference for governments and insurance companies to formulate agricultural development plans and analyze the market of agricultural insurance. The multi-hazard risk assessment method developed in this paper can also be used to quantitatively assess multi-hazard risk in other regions.     

Earthquake Genesis and Earthquake Early Warning Systems: Challenges and a Way Forward

Surveys in Geophysics - Several natural hazards, including earthquakes, may trigger disasters and the presence of disaster drivers further lead to the massive loss of life and property, every year...     

机载激光雷达技术在地质灾害调查中的应用——以四川九寨沟7.0级地震为例

九寨沟7.0级地震诱发的地质灾害具有高位滑坡远程灾害的特点,传统地质灾害排查手段无法有效解决隐患的早期识别问题。本文采用机载激光雷达测量技术,快速获取九寨沟地震核心景区的激光点云数据。通过构建高精度数字高程模型(DEM)、数字正射影像图(DOM),建立三维地质灾害解译场景,利用数字地形分析、地形形态学分析和计算机图像识别等技术,综合开展九寨沟高位远程区域内隐蔽性强、随机性大的地质灾害隐患早期识别与分析。应用实践表明,机载激光雷达测量技术可以提高九寨沟地震灾区地质灾害隐患的早期识别能力,对进一步提高综合防灾减灾能力提供了一些可借鉴的思路。     

基于GIS的2013年吉林前郭M 5.8震群砂土液化灾害的研究

应用GIS技术,以Arcgis为操作平台,对2013年松原市前郭尔罗斯蒙古族自治县发生M5.8震群后砂土液化地震灾害进行综合分析研究,并建立了此次地震事件砂土液化灾害的数据资料库。利用Arcgis中的ArcCatalog对图形信息、数据属性信息等进行综合管理,方便地震行业相关数据的输入、存储、查询、管理和分析。运用Arcgis中的Arcmap对数据资料进行叠加和空间分析,使此次地震事件中的砂土液化灾害以直观的地图形式展示出来,方便进行更深入的地震灾害研究,也便于决策部门更明确此次地震砂土液化灾害发生的地理位置等情况,为今后的地震灾害研究提供数据基础和可参考的空间分析方法。     

面向市县层级的地震灾害风险评估系统设计与实现

地震灾害风险评估工作的开展是践行新时期防震减灾工作的必然要求,是了解抗震薄弱环节和高风险地区的有效手段。本文针对现有地震灾害风险评估系统在市县层级应用薄弱、针对性不强、基本未考虑地质灾害的影响等问题,在分析总结最新研究成果的基础上,以宝兴县为例,设计并构建操作方便简单、针对性强的地震灾害风险评估系统。为地方政府地震灾害风险管理、防御和风险处置等提供方法和方案,切实提高地震灾害风险防御能力,有效降低地震灾害损失。     

Application of the hidden Markov model in a dynamic risk assessment of rainstorms in Dalian,China

Disaster risk evolves spatially and temporally due to the combined dynamics of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. However, most previous risk assessments of natural disasters were static and typically based on historical disaster events. Dynamic risk assessments are required to effectively reduce risks and prevent future losses. Based on rainstorm disaster data and meteorological information collected in Dalian, China, from 1976 to 2015, the hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to detect inter-annual changes in rainstorm disaster risks. An independent sample test was conducted to assess the reliability of the HMM in dynamic risk assessments. The dynamic rainstorm risk in Dalian was simulated based on the observation probability matrix, which characterized the relationship dependence between rainstorm hazard and risk, and the probability matrix of state transition, which reflected the probability of changes for the risk level. High rainstorm risk was associated with high-hazard rainstorms and continuously appeared with little probability in several successive years. The reliability applied the HMM to simulate the rainstorm disaster risk was approximately 67% in the dynamic risk assessment. Additionally, the rainstorm disaster risk in Dalian is predicted to be at a medium-risk level in 2017, with a probability of 0.685. Our findings suggest that the HMM can be effectively used in the dynamic risk assessment of natural disasters. Notably, future risk levels can be predicted using the current hazard level and the HMM.     

以乡镇为单元评估云南省建水县地震灾害风险

基于云南省建水县的建筑物、人口数量、生命线工程、地形地貌等数据,选取地震灾害损失风险评估因子,利用评估模型对设定烈度下可能造成的人员死亡、房屋破坏、滑坡密度等进行计算,给出地震灾害损失定量评估结果。在传统风险评估方法基础上,对无法建立灾害损失关系的承灾体用风险暴露量来代替灾害损失量进行风险评估。最后应用极差变换法对地震灾害损失的不同因子进行标准化,通过综合赋权划分地震灾害风险等级。结果表明:建水县地震灾害高风险的乡镇有5个,主要分布在建水北部的曲江,南部的南庄、西庄、临安、官厅一带;中风险乡镇有6个,低风险乡镇有3个。     

Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no “emergency plan” for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.     

自然灾害应急管理中的非政府组织

我国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一.在我国的自然灾害应急管理中,政府作为公共服务的提供者和公共事务的管理者,在自然灾害应急管理中必然扮演主角,起着主导作用.作为非营利性的非政府组织,由于其本身所具有的一些特性,在防范和应对自然灾害时对政府有着补充和助理的作用.因而非政府组织的参与为自然灾害应急管理研究提供了一个新的...     

基于GIS系统的城市震灾评估和救灾应急的研究

地震防灾减灾能力是国家的重点需求,针对当前城市抗震应急存在的灵活性差问题,在过去研究的基础上,将GIS系统应用至城市抗震救灾应急响应中,建立的GIS系统利用地震灾害评估模块、数据库管理模块、地震应急响应和指挥决策模块构成城市抗震救灾应急响应框架,完成城市GIS系统的应用分析。地震灾害评估模块中计算震害总体损失、经济损失和生命损失,实现地震灾害评估信息数据的精确性采集;数据库管理模块中的抗灾救灾应急响应数据库主要利用矢量数据、数字正射影像数据和其他专题数据构成,完成一致性访问各种类型数据,提高城市抗震救灾应急响应灵活性;在响应与决策模块中利用核心服务器实现数据信息的上传下达,实现快速救援响应。研究中对这套GIS系统与当前方法做对比,进行抗震救灾过程灵活性、救援数据精准性的比较实验。实验对比结果表明,所提研究成果提供的救援数据精确性强,且运行过程中灵活系数等部分指标高于当前研究。     

河谷型城市的震害特点及防震减灾——以兰州市区为例

兰州是中国最典型的唯一河谷型特大城市,市内多次发生或遭受到强地震波及影响。特殊的地质构造和自然地理环境,使兰州市的震害尤其是地震诱发的地质灾害,表现出多样性、多发性、复杂性和严重性;由于城市的政治、经济结构和地位的影响,使灾害的危害表现在整体性和全局性上,因而兰州市在地震灾害面前又显示出脆弱和易损的一面。建立健全全市防震减灾的机制,预防各种次生灾害,尤其是包括滑坡在内的地质灾害,确保生命线工程的安全和正常运转,提高各级政府的管理水平,强化公众的综合应急应变能力,是做好兰州市防震减灾的重要工作。     

北京地区突发性地质灾害易发区划及危险度评价

本文在认真分析北京地区地质环境的主要特征及地质灾害发育现状基础上,对泥石流、采空塌陷以及崩滑塌等突发性灾害的发育特征、分布规律及其主要影响因素进行了深入地分析、研究和探讨。采用袭扰系数法,对区内突发性地质灾害的易发程度进行了综合评价预测,圈定出突发性地质灾害高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区。采用模糊综合评判模型,对影响地质灾害演变趋势的降雨条件、人类工程活动、地震活动以及区域岩组结构等因素进行了综合评判,并依据突发性地质灾害的易发区划结果及其主要影响因素的综合评判结果,对其演变的危险程度进行了评价,将北京地区划分出突发性地质灾害高风险区、中风险区以及低风险区。这对政府相关部门制定减灾防灾、资源开发、环境整治、经济建设和社会发展等规划具有一定的参考作用。     

城市应急避难场所建设与管理现状与问题分析

避难场所规范化建设管理可有效提升地方应急管理能力与城市韧性。基于中国城市避难场所空间分布统计数据集,采用实证分析、GIS综合叠置与非参数统计分析等方法,对避难场所规划建设与管理工作中存在的问题进行归纳总结与成因分析,并结合新形势要求与国内外实践经验给出发展提升对策。结果表明:我国避难场所建设管理工作存在“重政策,轻效能” 、 “重专项,轻统筹” 、 “重体量,轻标准” 、 “重硬件,轻软件” 、 “重建设,轻管理”等问题。经与灾害背景与承灾体统计数据对比,可根据“统筹工作组织体制” 、 “规范规划建设机制” 、 “创新运营管理模式” 、 “完善法制条例体系”方面分析关键成因并提出提升对策。本研究对有序推进避难场所规范化建设管理工作,落实自然灾害防治体系与防治能力现代化建设具有重要现实意义。      

凉山州地震应急救援管理研究

地震是群灾之首。基层是发挥政府职能、加强危机管理、大力推进地震应急救援能力建设、防范化解地震灾害风险的重要基础。本文结合我国地震应急救援发展与基层地震应急救援管理工作,阐述了凉山州地震应急救援管理工作实践。四川凉山,立足“防大震、抢大险、救大灾”,开展地震灾害风险管理,提高地震应急救援能力,初步形成了以法制体制机制建设促进地震应急救援管理,以地震应急救援管理振兴防震减灾事业,全面推进民族团结进步的新格局。      

地震动参数与地震灾害相关性分析——以汶川震区地震滑坡灾害为例

本文以汶川地震滑坡震害为例, 设计一种方法, 对几个反映不同地震动特性的地震动参数与地震滑坡灾害的相关性进行了分析比较.结果表明: Arias强度参数与地表破坏的相关性最好, 该参数比较适合小区域范围的震害预测评估; 峰值加速度与地表破坏的相关性较好, 但更适合作为较大区域的震害评估参数; 与持时和频率有关的参数对于具体场地的震害机理分析具有辅助作用; 垂向地震动对滑坡震害的作用不容忽视. 本文结论对于其它震害相关研究中评估因子的选取具有参考意义.      

基于强震台网的我国沿海海啸走时预警

经济快速发展的中国沿海地区,面临着潜在海啸袭击危险。海啸传播走时分析是海啸预警系统的重要组成部分。本文基于强震台网提供的地震要素,从理论上讨论海啸预警时间计算方法。在球坐标系下,建立了远洋海啸传播模型,采用差分技术,实现远洋海啸传播数值模拟,首次针对我国主要城市进行了海啸走时计算,分析了我国沿海走时特点,指出了未来发生在太平洋的远洋海啸对我国的长江三角洲会有较大影响。本文计算海啸走时方法可以为我国建设的新一代基于数值海啸预警系统提供技术支持。