All adrift: aviation,shipping, and climate change policy

All sectors face decarbonization for a 2 °C temperature increase to be avoided. Nevertheless, meaningful policy measures that address rising CO₂ from international aviation and shipping remain woefully inadequate. Treated with a similar approach within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), they are often debated as if facing comparable challenges, and even influence each others’ mitigation policies. Yet their strengths and weaknesses have important distinctions. This article sheds light on these differences so that they can be built upon to improve the quality of debate and ensuing policy development. The article quantifies ‘2 °C’ pathways for these sectors, highlighting the need for mitigation measures to be urgently accelerated. It reviews recent developments, drawing attention to one example where a change in aviation mitigation policy had a direct impact on measures to cut CO₂ from shipping. Finally, the article contrasts opportunities and barriers towards mitigation. The article concludes that there is a portfolio of opportunities for short- to medium-term decarbonization for shipping, but its complexity is its greatest barrier to change. In contrast, the more simply structured aviation sector is pinning too much hope on emissions trading to deliver CO₂ cuts in line with 2 °C. Instead, the solution remains controversial and unpopular – avoiding 2 °C requires demand management.

Policy relevance

The governance arrangements around the CO₂ produced by international aviation and shipping are different from other sectors because their emissions are released in international airspace and waters. Instead, through the Kyoto Protocol, the International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) were charged with developing policies towards mitigating their emissions. Slow progress to date, coupled with strong connections with rapidly growing economies, has led to the CO₂ from international transport growing at a higher rate than the average rate from all other sectors. This article considers this rapid growth, and the potential for future CO₂ growth in the context of avoiding a 2 °C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. It explores similarities and differences between these two sectors, highlighting that a reliance on global market-based measures to deliver required CO₂ cuts will likely leave both at odds with the overarching climate goal.     

Living with limits: growth,resources, and climate change

Is it possible for all of humanity to enjoy the standards of living of today's high-income countries? What would happen if these limits were reached, perhaps because of climate change or a shortage of natural resources essential to production? How would society manage – or fail to manage – such limits? Notwithstanding the current financial and economic crises, these are perhaps the biggest questions confronting our species (and of a host of other species, who are the victims of our decisions). The article begins by considering the biggest economic event of our lifetimes – the ‘great convergence’ and its implications for the demand for resources. The discussion then turns to a specific limit on our development, climate change, which is different from most other limits, because it involves a global public good: the atmosphere. What such limits might mean for our civilization is discussed. One can persuade people to tackle climate change only if those concerned with the dangers persuade ordinary people that action will not come at the expense of their prosperity.     

The resilience paradox: flooding experience,coping and climate change mitigation intentions

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity and unpredictability of extreme weather events across the globe and these events are likely to have significant mental health implications. The mental health literature broadly characterises negative emotional reactions to extreme weather experiences as undesirable impacts on wellbeing. Yet, other research in psychology suggests that negative emotional responses to extreme weather are an important motivation for personal action on climate change. This article addresses the intersection of mental health and functional perspectives on negative emotions, with a specific focus on the potential that reduced negative emotional responses to extreme weather may also translate to diminished motivation to undertake climate change mitigation actions – which we term the ‘resilience paradox’. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, we present new evidence indicating that self-appraised coping ability moderates the link between flooding experience and negative emotions and thereby attenuates the indirect link between flooding experience and climate change mitigation intentions. We conclude that support for flood victims should extend beyond addressing emotional, physical and financial stresses to include acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and communication of the need for action to combat future climate risks.

Key policy insights

• Psychological resilience to flooding and other extreme weather events can translate to diminished motivation to mitigate climate change

• Negative emotional reactions need to occur at an optimal level to enable people to respond appropriately to climate risks.

• Flood victims’ subjective appraisal of their ability to cope does not necessarily encompass consideration of the role played by climate change. Therefore, support for victims of extreme weather should include explicit acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and the need for action to mitigate future climate risks.

     

Agreement,significance, and understandings of historical responsibility in climate change negotiations

For over 20 years, Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have struggled with the normative significance of history for the differentiation of responsibilities. Negotiations on ‘historical responsibility’ have been marked by considerable conflict between developed and developing countries. However, in 2010, the Parties acknowledged the concept in a consensus decision. This article analyses UN Climate Change Conference delegates' agreement with the decision, whether it reconciled conflict between interpretations of historical responsibility, and the significance that delegates ascribe to the decision for future agreements. The decision has not eliminated conflict between different interpretations. Delegates who understand historical responsibility as linking countries' historical contributions to climate change to their responsibilities to act agree more with the decision and foresee it having a stronger influence on future agreements than do those viewing the concept in more conceptual terms. The decision marks the start of negotiations concerning how rather than whether historical responsibility should guide operative text. This article demonstrates that (1) the divergent interpretations pose clear challenges for a necessary but demanding agreement on operationalization, and (2) focusing on an ambiguous version of proportionality between contribution to change and responsibility can become a first step for convergence between divergent positions.     

Uncertainty in resilience to climate change in India and Indian states

This study builds on an earlier analysis of resilience of India and Indian states to climate change. The previous study (Brenkert and Malone, Clim Change 72:57–102, 2005) assessed current resilience; this research uses the Vulnerability–Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) to project resilience to 2095 and to perform an uncertainty analysis on the deterministic results. Projections utilized two SRES-based scenarios, one with fast-and-high growth, one with delayed growth. A detailed comparison of two states, the Punjab and Orissa, points to the kinds of insights that can be obtained using the VRIM. The scenarios differ most significantly in the timing of the uncertainty in economic prosperity (represented by GDP per capita) as a major factor in explaining the uncertainty in the resilience index. In the fast-and-high growth scenario the states differ most markedly regarding the role of ecosystem sensitivity, land use and water availability. The uncertainty analysis shows, for example, that resilience in the Punjab might be enhanced, especially in the delayed growth scenario, if early attention is paid to the impact of ecosystems sensitivity on environmental well-being of the state. By the same token, later in the century land-use pressures might be avoided if land is managed through intensification rather than extensification of agricultural land. Thus, this methodology illustrates how a policy maker can be informed about where to focus attention on specific issues, by understanding the potential changes at a specific location and time—and, thus, what might yield desired outcomes. Model results can point to further analyses of the potential for resilience-building.     

Effects of economic recession and local weather on climate change attitudes

How are large companies responding to the challenges of reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? An analysis of the published climate change policies and performance of 125 large European companies is presented. The results suggest that most large European companies have now developed the management systems and processes necessary for them to effectively manage their GHG emissions and related business risks. However, there is a significant disconnect between the targets that companies set for themselves and the more ambitious targets being set by the European Union (which has committed to a 20% reduction in its emissions by 2020 against a 1990 baseline). Of the companies surveyed, just over one-third had stabilized or reduced their total GHG emissions over the period 2002–2007, and fewer than one-third expected their emissions to stabilize or reduce in the coming years. The relationship between the quality of corporate policies and performance outcomes (in terms of GHG emissions) suggests that while companies with stronger policies are likely to have relatively better performance, only a minority of those companies with the highest-quality policies are committing to absolute reductions in their GHG emissions.     

On climate change and economic analysis

Climatic change and its societal impacts have been a topic of considerable concern over the last decade. Economic analysis would seem to have much to contribute to society's understanding of the importance of this issue, yet the contributions of prior analyses have been limited. Consideration from a decision-analytic perspective suggests that more useful insights could be gained by evaluating the effects of a changing (rather than changed) climate and the potential adaptations of society to that changing climate. Linking physical and economic models of differing levels of aggregation can be useful in analyzing a changing climate.S. T. Sonka is Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Principal Scientist at the Illinois State Water Survey. P. J. Lamb is Principal Scientist and Head, Climate and Meteorology Section, Illinois State Water Survey, and Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.     

The discourses of climate change science: Scientific reporting,climate negotiations and the case of Papua New Guinea

This paper analyses climate science as a discourse to reveal how it enables and constrains climate change negotiations and action. Focusing on long-term outcomes projected in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report and the World Bank’s “Turn Down the Heat” reports, this paper examines processes of discourse structuration and institutionalization to identify the dominant discourses which frame climate action. We trace the dominant discourses identified in the scientific reports – Survivalism, Ecological Modernisation and Economic Rationalism – through the Paris Agreement and selected Leader Statements and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions from COP21. From the 24 states included in this analysis, Papua New Guinea (PNG) is developed as a case study to investigate the hybridity and institutionalization of discourses. Even though PNG’s rhetoric and commitments at COP21 express Survivalism, the state’s policy frameworks rarely move beyond solutions found in Economic Rationalism and Ecological Modernisation. This suggests that states strategically adopt hybrid discourses drawn from climate science in line with their positionality, political economy and interests. Understanding how discourses drawn from climate science manifest in national policies has significant implications not only for how science is communicated at the international level but also for understanding different state positions in the global climate governance regime.     

Population, uncertainty, and learning in climate change decision analysis

The prospect of learning about various uncertainties relevant to analyses of the climate change issue is important because it can affect estimates of the costs of both damages and mitigation, and it can influence the optimal timing of emissions reductions. Baseline scenarios representing future emissions in the absence of mitigation are one of the major sources of uncertainty. Here we investigate how fast we might realistically expect to learn about the outlook for long-term population growth, as one determinant of future baseline emissions. That is, we estimate how long it might take to substantially revise current estimates of the likelihood of various population size outcomes over the twenty-first century. We draw on recent work showing that, because population growth is path dependent, we can learn about the long term outlook by waiting to observe how population changes in the short term. We then explore the implications of uncertainty and of this learning potential for mitigation costs and for optimal emissions. Using a simple model, we show that uncertainty in population growth translates into an uncertainty in the optimal tax rate of about $200/tC by 2050 for a range of stabilization levels. When learning is taken into account, it allows for mitigation strategies to change in response to new information, leading to a slight reduction in the expected value of mitigation costs, and a substantial reduction in the likelihood of high cost outcomes. We also find that while learning can lead to large revisions over the next few decades in anticipated population growth, this potential does not imply large changes in near-term optimal emissions reductions. Results suggest that further work on the potential for learning about other determinants of emissions could have larger effects on expected mitigation costs.     

Sustainable energy development and climate change in China

Abstract

This article analyses the national circumstances and major factors underpinning China's energy demand and supply, energy-related emissions, and consequently China's sustainable development. These factors include the huge, still growing, and aging population, rapid economic growth, ongoing industrialization and urbanization, environmental and health concerns at local, regional and global level. Against such background analysis, the article explores the potential and constraints of non-fossil fuel, fuel-switching to natural gas, economy restructuring and clean coal technology in mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and ensuring energy supply in China. The authors reiterate the importance of improving energy efficiency in China and discuss how to integrate renewable energy into rural development. The article concludes with an in-depth discussion about redefining development goals, the equity issue in climate change process, and the linkage with sustainable development.     

气候变化科学方面的几个最新认知

IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组报告主要从以下几个方面的进展提升了我们对气候系统变化、气候变化原因以及预估未来气候系统变化等方面的认知,对过去气候变化及其与人类活动的关系有了更加清晰、可靠的认识.综合多重证据评估指出,全球气候正经历着前所未有的变化;包括极端事件在内的归因进展已把人类活动对气候系统影响的认识从...     

Adaptation to an uncertain climate change: cost benefit analysis and robust decision making for dam dimensioning

Climate models project large changes in rainfall, but disagree on their magnitude and sign. The consequences of this uncertainty on optimal dam dimensioning is assessed for a small mountainous catchment in Greece. Optimal dam design is estimated using a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) based on trends in seasonal temperature and precipitations from 19 IPCC-AR4 climate models driven by the the SRES A2 emission scenario. Optimal reservoir volumes are modified by climate change, leading to up to 34% differences between optimal volumes. Contrary to widely-used target-based approaches, the CBA suggests that reduced rainfall should lead to smaller water reservoirs. The resulting change in the Net Present Value (NPV) of water supply is also substantial, ranging from no change to a large 25% loss, depending on the climate model, even assuming optimal adaptation and perfect foresight. In addition, climate change uncertainty can lead to design errors, with a cost ranging from 0.3 to 2.8% of the NPV, depending on site characteristics. This paper proposes to complement the CBA with a robust decision-making approach that focuses on reducing design-error costs. It also suggests that climate change impacts in the water sector may reveal large, that water reservoirs do not always provide a cost-efficient adaptation strategy, and that alternative adaptation strategies based on water conservation and non-conventional water production need to be considered.     

Informal networks and resilience to climate change impacts: A collective approach to index insurance

This article contributes to the understanding of how to proceed with the development of index-insurance in order to reach extended population coverage with the insurance. The approach is applied to an example from a region in Tanzania. One of the main coping strategies that resource-poor households rely on to manage risks related to fluctuations in income flows is risk-sharing in informal networks. An informal network is an ideal way of managing idiosyncratic shocks, but once such shocks become covariate and affect whole communities, as is the case with most climate change impacts, informal networks become insufficient since the majority of risk-sharers will be affected by the shock at the same time. This paper proposes a collective approach to index-insurance in which the members of an informal network will be insured as one insurance taker. The paper raises a conceptual argument that targeting households through existing informal networks will remove a number of prevailing barriers to the take-up of insurance and consequently the approach has the potential to increase households’ resilience to climate change impacts. The policy implications of the conclusions are significant since the number of covariate shocks is predicted to increase with climate change.     

Commitments through financial options: an alternative for delivering climate change obligations

Governments willing to commit themselves to maintain carbon prices at or above a certain level face the challenge that their commitments need to be credible both for investors in low-carbon technology and for foreign governments. This article argues that governments can make such commitments by issuing long-term put option contracts on the price of CO₂ allowances. This mechanism gives investors the right, but not the obligation, to sell allowances to the government at the strike price. From the investors' point of view, a government is therefore fully committed to a price floor for allowances in the future. This proposed approach alters the incentives that a government faces when considering noncompliance and serves to prevent non-compliance. The proposal fares well when assessed against criteria to determine its suitability in legitimacy, enforcement, proportionality, lack of interference from other contracting States, and transparency. It also allows for fine-tuning through the number and duration of issued options and the strike price. A robust contract structure is proposed to protect against government interference that might threaten the credibility of commitments.     

Beef feedlots in southwestern Kansas: local change, perceptions, and the global change context

Cattle feedlots, some of which have a capacity of tens of thousands of head, have become a major driving force in the local economy and changing landscape of southwestern Kansas. The feedlot industry also is one of the region's most important sources of carbon-equivalent greenhouse gases. Changes to the beef industry are described, and the perceptions and attitudes of feedlot operators regarding climatic change issues and industrial change are analyzed based on a 1998 survey. The results indicate that a majority of feedlot respondents believe ‘global warming’ is mostly an unproven theory, and efforts to mitigate it are unwarranted.     

Dynamics,stratospheric ozone,and climate change

Abstract

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low‐frequency variability which can look “trend‐like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone‐depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative‐chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer‐Dobson circulation) could have a first‐order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry‐climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self‐consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change.     

Extreme value analysis and the study of climate change

In his paper in Climate Monitor, TML Wigley uses basic probability arguments to illustrate how a slowly changing climate could potentially affect the frequency of extreme events. In the time since the paper appeared, there has been increased interest in assessing how weather extremes may be altered by climate change. Much of the work has been conducted using extreme value analysis, which is the branch of statistics developed specifically to characterize extreme events. This commentary discusses the advantages of an EVA approach and reviews some EVA techniques that have been used to describe climate change’s potential impact on extreme phenomena. Additionally, this commentary illustrates basic EVA techniques in an analysis of temperatures for central England. In parallel to Wigley’s analysis, a time-varying EVA analysis is compared to a stationary one, and furthermore, the trend from the EVA analysis is compared to the trend in means.     

Sector-based approach to the post-2012 climate change policy architecture

A sectoral approach to GHG emissions reductions in developing countries is proposed as a key component of the post-2012 climate change mitigation framework. In this approach, the ten highest-emitting developing countries in the electricity and other major industrial sectors pledge to meet voluntary, ‘no-lose’ GHG emissions targets in these sectors. No penalties are incurred for failing to meet a target, but emissions reductions achieved beyond the target level earn emissions reduction credits (ERCs) that can be sold to industrialized nations. Participating developing countries establish initial ‘no-lose’ emissions targets, based upon their national circumstances, from sector-specific energyintensity benchmarks that have been developed by independent experts. Industrialized nations then offer incentives for the developing countries to adopt more stringent emissions targets through a ‘Technology Finance and Assistance Package’, which helps to overcome financial and other barriers to technology transfer and deployment. These sectorspecific energy-intensity benchmarks could also serve as a means for establishing national economy-wide targets in developed countries in the post-2012 regime. Preliminary modelling of a hybrid scenario, in which Annex I countries adopt economy-wide absolute GHG emissions targets and high-emitting developing countries adopt ‘no-lose’ sectoral targets, indicates that such an approach significantly improves the likelihood that atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ can be stabilized at 450 ppmv by the end of the century.