Probabilistic parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty based on field measurements for unsaturated soil slope

A key issue in assessment of rainfall-induced slope failure is a reliable evaluation of pore water pressure distribution and its variations during rainstorm, which in turn requires accurate estimation of soil hydraulic parameters. In this study, the uncertainties of soil hydraulic parameters and their effects on slope stability prediction are evaluated, within the Bayesian framework, using the field measured temporal pore-water pressure data. The probabilistic back analysis and parameter uncertainty estimation is conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. A case study of a natural terrain site is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The 95% total uncertainty bounds for the calibration period are relatively narrow, indicating an overall good performance of the infiltration model for the calibration period. The posterior uncertainty bounds of slope safety factors are much narrower than the prior ones, implying that the reduction of uncertainty in soil hydraulic parameters significantly reduces the uncertainty of slope stability.     

基于多源试验数据空间变异土体参数概率反演及边坡可靠度更新

岩土工程现场勘察试验通常只能获得有限的试验数据,据此难以真实地量化土体参数的空间变异性。提出了考虑土体参数空间变异性的概率反演和边坡可靠度更新方法,基于室内和现场两种不同来源的试验数据概率反演空间变异参数统计特征和更新边坡可靠度水平,并给出了计算流程。此外为合理地描述土体参数先验信息,发展了不排水抗剪强度非平稳随机场模型。最后通过不排水饱和黏土边坡算例验证了提出方法的有效性,并探讨了试验数据和钻孔位置对边坡后验失效概率的影响。结果表明：提出方法实现了空间变异土体参数概率反演与边坡可靠度更新的一体化,基于有限的多源试验数据概率反演得到的土体参数均值与试验数据非常吻合,明显降低了对参数不确定性的估计,更新的边坡可靠度水平显著增加。受土体参数空间自相关性的影响,试验数据对钻孔取样点附近区域土体参数统计特征更新的影响明显大于距离取样点较远区域。     

Comparing the Gradual Deformation with the Probability Perturbation Method for Solving Inverse Problems

Inverse problems are ubiquitous in the Earth Sciences. Many such problems are ill-posed in the sense that multiple solutions can be found that match the data to be inverted. To impose restrictions on these solutions, a prior distribution of the model parameters is required. In a spatial context this prior model can be as simple as a Multi-Gaussian law with prior covariance matrix, or could come in the form of a complex training image describing the prior statistics of the model parameters. In this paper, two methods for generating inverse solutions constrained to such prior model are compared. The gradual deformation method treats the problem of finding inverse solution as an optimization problem. Using a perturbation mechanism, the gradual deformation method searches (optimizes) in the prior model space for those solutions that match the data to be inverted. The perturbation mechanism guarantees that the prior model statistics are honored. However, it is shown with a simple example that this perturbation method does not necessarily draw accurately samples from a given posterior distribution when the inverse problem is framed within a Bayesian context. On the other hand, the probability perturbation method approaches the inverse problem as a data integration problem. This method explicitly deals with the problem of combining prior probabilities with pre-posterior probabilities derived from the data. It is shown that the sampling properties of the probability perturbation method approach the accuracy of well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers such as the rejection sampler. The paper uses simple examples to illustrate the clear differences between these two methods     

先验概率分布及似然函数模型的选择对边坡可靠度评价影响的定量评估

受工程勘察成本及试验场地限制,可获得的试验数据通常有限,基于有限的试验数据难以准确估计岩土参数统计特征和边坡可靠度。贝叶斯方法可以融合有限的场地信息降低对岩土参数不确定性的估计进而提高边坡可靠度水平。但是,目前的贝叶斯更新研究大多假定参数先验概率分布为正态、对数正态和均匀分布,似然函数为多维正态分布,这种做法的合理性有待进一步验证。总结了岩土工程贝叶斯分析常用的参数先验概率分布及似然函数模型,以一个不排水黏土边坡为例,采用自适应贝叶斯更新方法系统探讨了参数先验概率分布和似然函数对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新的影响。计算结果表明：参数先验概率分布对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新均有一定的影响,选用对数正态和极值I型分布作为先验概率分布推断的参数后验概率分布离散性较小。选用Beta分布和极值I型分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果分别偏于保守和危险,选用对数正态分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果居中。相比之下,似然函数的影响更加显著。与其他类型似然函数相比,由多维联合正态分布构建的似然函数可在降低对岩土参数不确定性估计的同时,获得与场地信息更为吻合的计算结果。另外,构建似然函数时不同位置处测量误差之间的自相关性对边坡后验失效概率也具有一定的影响。     

A Bayesian framework for updating model parameters while considering spatial variability

The study presents a recent slope failure in India which resulted in the burial of a village and claimed large number of lives. Current methods of probabilistic back analysis incorporate uncertainty in the analysis but do not consider spatial variability. In this study, back analysis is performed using Bayesian analysis in conjunction with random field theory. The probabilistic method is shown to be efficient in back-analysing a slope failure. It also provides confidence in parameter values to be used for post-failure slope design. The back analysis method which does not consider spatial variability overestimates the uncertainty in analysis, which can lead to uneconomical slope remediation design and measures.     

二维随机场下边坡稳定性的径向基函数神经网络分析法

岩土参数的随机性会直接影响边坡稳定性评价结果的精度。首先,依据边坡参数的常用分布特征,利用拉丁超立方抽样法生成若干组边坡土性参数和几何参数的随机样本,用有限元强度折减法求解各组样本对应的边坡安全系数。再考虑土性参数的空间变异性,在二维随机场模型下将蒙特卡罗模拟和有限元强度折减法相结合求解各组样本对应的边坡失效概率。然后,利用样本数据及其安全系数和失效概率对径向基函数（RBF）神经网络进行训练和测试,从而建立边坡安全系数和失效概率的预测模型。算例表明,二维随机场模型能相对精确地考虑参数的空间变异性;在此基础上建立的神经网络模型对边坡的安全系数和失效概率具有较高的预测精度,且能极大地节省边坡稳定性分析的时间。     

碎裂岩石路堑边坡稳定性评价与安全防护设计

以湖北省209省道宣恩段东门关隧道进口段的典型碎裂结构路堑岩质边坡为例,针对该边坡工程地质、水文地质、岩体结构特征以及前期变形破坏迹象,判断出边坡的变形破坏模式。在此基础上,通过现行规范推荐的不平衡推力法,对边坡的稳定性进行评价,并进行了安全防护设计。在设计过程中,针对常规技术容易出现的冒顶剪出、桩间土挤出和锚索预应力损失衰减等问题,提出避开使用此类技术,而采用削坡、锚杆、格构以及挡墙等措施,试图为解决碎裂结构岩石路堑边坡的分析与防护难题提出一种新的思路。     

计算边坡安全系数的坡向离心法

边坡稳定分析方法发展最引人注目,它是经典土力学最早试图解决而至今仍未圆满解决的课题。在常用边坡分析方法的基础上,从边坡失稳机制出发,提出一种更方便的安全系数计算方法--坡向离心法。该法通过不断增大水平加速度,直至边坡失稳为止,依据水平加速度与重力加速度失稳影响机制求得安全系数。通过算例与传统极限平衡法和有限元强度折减法相比较,并对各物理参数进行敏感性分析。结果表明,坡向离心法在边坡工程稳定分析中的应用是切实可行的,其弹性模量和泊松比对该法所求安全系数影响不大。     

以破坏概率为目标的岩质边坡平面滑动破坏反分析

把可靠性理论和反分析方法相结合,对岩质边坡平面滑动破坏进行了反分析,讨论了分别以稳定系数和破坏概率为目标的反算方法,阐述了平面滑动破坏反分析的计算过程,根据无后缘张裂缝的岩质边坡平面滑动极限状态函数,运用Monte Carlo方法对某核电工程基坑边坡平面滑动破坏进行了反分析。指出了基于稳定系数的常规定值反分析中的不足,讨论了变异系数、截尾位置、相关系数对计算结果的影响。认为抗剪强度指标的变异系数和相关系数对反算结果影响不大,截尾位置按照“3σ”原则兼顾变异系数经验范围的设置方法可以满足要求。     

基于多场耦合数值分析的膨胀土边坡浅层膨胀变形破坏机制研究

膨胀土地区大量工程实践表明,发生在膨胀土边坡浅表层一定深度范围内的牵引式滑坡现象非常普遍,对于该种渐进性边坡破坏模式,传统极限平衡分析无法反映其失稳状态和破坏机制。借鉴温度场中温度膨胀系数的定义和数值处理方法,以室内无荷/有荷膨胀率试验成果为依据,对膨胀土的湿度膨胀系数进行了反演拟合,得到低荷载条件下含水率-膨胀系数近似符合线性关系。基于降雨作用下膨胀土边坡破坏的大型静力物理模型试验成果,采用FLAC非饱和二相流模型模拟降雨引起的边坡湿度场分布变化状态,引入含水率-膨胀系数的线性关系,提出一种适用于膨胀土边坡的湿度场-膨胀变形场-应力场的多场耦合数值分析方法,并藉此对物理模型试验进行仿真。结合模型试验和多场耦合数值分析,阐述膨胀土边坡浅层渐进性破坏机制的本质是水力边界条件变化引起的膨胀土膨胀变形作用。     

垃圾体内部与衬里界面组合破坏稳定分析方法研究

垃圾填埋场沿底坡和背坡衬里界面发生平移破坏的工程实例较多,也有破坏面沿垃圾体内部和底坡的组合破坏形式,相应的计算分析方法有待完善。对组合破坏,根据垃圾体内部破坏面为库仑主动破坏面和组合破坏面上各点安全系数相同的假设,由刚体极限平衡条件,建立组合破坏的稳定计算方法。运用双楔体和组合破坏稳定分析方法对算例和Kettleman Hills填埋场工程实例进行计算分析。结果表明：双楔体法计算得到的最危险平移滑动破坏安全系数大于组合破坏最小安全系数;最危险破坏面是组合破坏面;对Kettleman Hills填埋场,组合滑动面也是可能的滑动破坏面。由此可见,组合破坏是垃圾填埋场可能的破坏形式之一,在进行垃圾填埋体滑动稳定分析计算时应进行组合破坏形式的计算分析。     

Evaluating slope stability uncertainty using coupled Markov chain

Geological uncertainty appears in the form of one soil layer embedded in another or the inclusion of pockets of different soil type within a more uniform soil mass. Uncertainty in factor of safety (FS) and probability of failure (Pf) of slope induced by the geological uncertainty is not well studied in the past. This paper presents one approach to evaluate the uncertainty in FS and Pf of slope in the presence of geological uncertainty using borehole data. The geological uncertainty is simulated by an efficient coupled Markov chain (CMC) model. Slope stability analysis is then conducted based on the simulated heterogeneous soils. Effect of borehole layout schemes on uncertainty evaluation of FS and Pf is investigated. The results show that borehole within influence zone of the slope is essential for a precise evaluation of FS statistics and Pf. The mean of FS will converge to the correct answer as the borehole number increases.     

基于FELA的随机场方法在考虑降雨入渗的边坡开挖稳定性分析中的应用

黑山共和国南北高速公路项目部分路段处于复理石地区,降雨集中、空间变异性显著且分层分布的岩土体给道路边坡施工带来了挑战。条分法、常规有限元法等确定性分析方法不能考虑岩土材料的不确定性,给出的具有唯一性、确定性的结果不能反映边坡稳定的不确定性。以该工程某边坡为例,采用有限元极限分析方法（FELA）,考虑岩土材料强度的空间变异性,利用上下限解法得出安全系数的分布区间。由勘察资料得到材料均值、标准差和空间相关长度并重建描述抗剪强度指标的二维随机场,同时考虑开挖岩层的节理分布,分析边坡在分级开挖过程中,各施工步骤的稳定性和破坏模式。与有限元分析结果相比,随机场条件下,部分情况开挖阶段安全系数低于限值,并出现局部破坏和整体破坏两种形式。结合不饱和土理论,模拟暴雨情况下雨水的入渗深度并在饱和区采用降低后的强度参数重新计算。通过蒙特卡洛模拟,得到各工况下安全系数、滑动体体积、挡墙弯矩和锚杆内力的概率密度分布函数。挡墙结构约束土体的变形,使得破坏模式趋向于整体破坏,安全系数分布区间变小。锚杆能带动更多土体进入工作状态,同样约束安全系数分布区间。旱季施工与雨季施工边坡破坏区域不同,同等支护条件下,雨季边坡安全系数分布区间更大,且均值明显降低。      

基于高效随机有限元法的边坡风险评估

提出了基于子集模拟的边坡风险评估的高效随机有限元法（RFEM）,推导了基于子集模拟的边坡失效概率和失效风险的计算公式,并给出了基于高效RFEM的边坡可靠度分析和风险评估流程图。采用一个边坡算例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,基于子集模拟的高效RFEM可以视为是对基于蒙特卡洛模拟的传统RFEM的改进,显著地提高了失效概率和失效风险的计算效率以及失效样本的产生能力,非常适用于分析小失效概率的可靠度问题,极大地增强了RFEM在边坡可靠度分析和风险评估中的实用性。高效RFEM将边坡的整体失效风险分解为对应不同概率水平的边坡失效风险,并量化了它们对整体风险的相对贡献度。在该方法中,边坡可靠度分析和风险评估与确定性边坡有限元分析互不耦合,极大地简化了它们的计算过程。此外,土体不排水抗剪强度的竖向空间变异性对边坡失效风险具有显著的影响。     

填土斜坡的排水条件对斜坡稳定性的影响

降雨是导致斜坡破坏的主要原因。地下水位上升和在土中渗流引起土体应力状态的变化是导致斜坡在降雨过程中或降雨后变形与破坏的关键因素。填土斜坡的稳定性不仅取决于填土的强度,还与填土斜坡的排水条件密切相关。适当的排水条件不仅可以限制斜坡中地下水位上升的高度,而且可以及时消散因材料剪切收缩而生成的超孔隙水压力,防止土体液化,避免斜坡整体流动破坏。本文采用完全耦合有效应力分析程序和与状态相关的剪胀性砂土模型模拟地下水位上升过程中填土排水条件对压实填土斜坡稳定性的影响。完全耦合有效应力分析方法可以模拟孔隙水和土骨架间包括浮力和渗流在内的相互作用。分析结果表明斜坡排水条件是影响斜坡因地下水位上升而变形和破坏的重要因素,加固松散填土斜坡时必须设置适当的排水与泄水装置。     

应变软化土坡渐进破坏的可靠度分析

在考虑土性参数的不确定性和土体应变软化特性的基础上,以可靠度方法建立了边坡渐进破坏的极限状态方程。通过计算边坡局部破坏概率,确定边坡中最危险的土条,并推导出破坏起始于该土条,逐渐向两侧扩展的渐进破坏概率计算公式。该方法能很好地反映边坡局部破坏的产生、扩展及对边坡整体稳定性的影响,找到最贴近实际情况的破坏传播路径,为边坡稳定分析提供了理论依据。通过算例分析可知,滑动面上各个土条的局部破坏概率均不相等,破坏起始于中部第8土条,破坏先向上传递,后向下传递至坡脚,并非从坡脚向坡顶传递的牵引式破坏,或从坡顶向坡脚传递的推移式破坏。     

考虑能量-时间分布的边坡动力可靠性分析新方法

提出一种考虑能量-时间分布的边坡动力可靠性分析方法。该方法将动态最危险滑动面及其稳定系数以时间序列加以刻画,并根据边坡动力反应的能量分布特征,提取持续时间统计窗,用于对上述时间序列的统计分析,以获取边坡动力模糊失效概率、边坡动力可靠度指标和基于保证率的边坡动力稳定系数。以澳大利亚计算机应用协会边坡稳定考核题为例,应用上述新方法考察其在芦山7.0级主震波形条件下的稳定性,研究了在不同统计窗下的边坡动力可靠性。案例分析表明： （1）新方法能够抓住影响边坡动力稳定的主要时间段,使分析结果更为凝练、可信。（2）通过引入边坡失效状态的模糊判别,使得可靠性评价中能够考虑模糊性,解决了以往常规方法区分度不够的问题。（3）基于保证率的边坡动力稳定系数具有很好的应用前景,它在内涵上体现了可靠性分析,在形式上与静力稳定系数的定义兼容,在数值上反映了边坡瞬时动力稳定系数的保守估计值,在实践上与现行规范的拟静力法具有良好的可比性,因而具有多方面的优势。（4）就本案例而言,动力条件下最危险滑动面的发育位置趋向于静力条件下的最危险滑动面,体现了依据静力和拟静力理论框架所进行的防护工程设计,在动力条件下仍然具有积极的意义。（5）新方法对定量研究现行边坡规范的抗震设计冗余提供了一条途径。提出的新方法为边坡抗震研究提供了新的思路、方法和可供参考的实例。     

顺层边坡稳定性及可靠度的随机有限元分析法

阐述了基于摄动法的随机有限元基本原理,采用以均值为中心的2阶摄动随机有限元,运用局部平均的空间离散方法,对顺层边坡的应力场进行了2阶统计均值、协方差和方差的分析,并结合顺层边坡沿软弱夹层滑动的破坏特征,推导了基于Mohr-Coulomb准则的顺层边坡整体稳定的安全系数和可靠度的计算表达式。结合典型顺层岩质路堑边坡工程实例,采用摄动随机有限元法进行了边坡稳定性和可靠度的分析计算。结果表明,文中介绍的摄动随机有限元法可以考虑多种随机变量对边坡系统的影响,可同时采用安全系数和可靠度作为边坡稳定性的评价指标,判定结果更为准确和全面。     

Spatial risk analysis of Li-shan landslide in Taiwan

By coupling limit equilibrium analysis and Monte Carlo analysis with a geography information system (GIS), this study implements a method that can evaluate the risk (corresponding to probability of failure in this study) of landslide with consideration of spatial uncertainties. The GIS can adopt the three-dimensional information including surface topography, underground geomaterial distribution and groundwater level to determine slope profiles for analysis. Then the safety of defined slope can be evaluated by limit equilibrium analysis. In this study, the mechanical properties of geomaterial were considered as random variables instead of single values. The slope and groundwater profiles are also randomly adopted. Through a Monte Carlo sampling process, a distribution of safety factor and probability of failure can be determined. This probabilistic risk analysis approach was applied to Li-shan landslide in Central Taiwan.

Due to heavy rains, the sites near the highway 7A (mileage 73 k + 150) and the highway 8 (mileage 82 k) in the Li-shan Township began to subside in mid April 1990. Topography, geology, and groundwater condition of this area were first reviewed. Based on this review, together with field investigations and a series of limit equilibrium back analyses, a general hypothetic model was established to illustrate the failure mechanism of this landslide area. Then the developed probabilistic risk analysis model is applied to spatially evaluate the risk of this landslide area as well as the performance of the remediation treatment.     

A procedure for the design and analysis of geosynthetic reinforced soil slopes

Summary A procedure for the stability analysis and design of geosynthetic reinforced soil slopes over a firm foundation is described. Firstly the unreinforced slope is analysed, and for this a circular failure method is used which allows a surcharge load to be taken into account. Any method of slip circle analysis could be used to identify the coordinates of the centre of the slip circle, its radius and the minimum factor of safety. In this study, both internal and external stability analysis of the reinforced slope is presented. Internal stability deals with the resistance to pullout failure within the reinforced soil zone resulting from the soil/reinforcement interaction. The external stability is considered by an extension of the bilinear wedge method which allows a slip plane to propagate horizontally along a reinforcing sheet. The results for total tensile force, internal and external stability are presented in the form of charts.For given properties of soil and slope geometry, the required strength of the geosynthetic and the length of reinforcement at the top and bottom of the slope can be determined using these charts. The results are compared with the published design charts by Schmertmannet al. (1987).