Accretionary processes in the axial valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge 27° N–30° N from TOBI side-scan sonar images

We analyse TOBI side-scan sonar images collected during Charles Darwin cruise CD76 in the axial valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) between 27°N and 30°N (Atlantis Transform Fault). Mosaics of the two side-scan sonar swaths provide a continuous image of the axial valley and the inner valley walls along more than six second-order segments of the MAR. Tectonic and volcanic analyses reveal a high-degree intra-segment and inter-segment variability. We distinguish three types of volcanic morphologies: hummocky volcanoes or volcanic ridges, smooth, flat-topped volcanoes, and lava flows. We observe that the variations in the tectonics from one segment to another are associated with variations in the distribution of the volcanic morphologies. Some segments have more smooth volcanoes near their ends and in the discontinuities than near their mid-point, and large, hummocky axial volcanic ridges. Their tectonic deformation is usually limited to the edges of the axial valley near the inner valley walls. Other segments have smooth volcanoes distributed along their length, small axial volcanic ridges, and their axial valley floor is affected by numerous faults and fissures. We propose a model of volcano-tectonic cycles in which smooth volcanoes and lava flows are built during phases of high magmatic flux. Hummocky volcanic ridges are constructed more progressively, by extraction of magma from pockets located preferentially beneath the centre of the segments, during phases of low magma input. These cycles might result from pulses in melt migration from the mantle. Melt arrival would lead to the rapid emplacement of smooth-textured volcanic terrains, and would leave magma pockets, mostly beneath the centre of the segments where most melt is produced. During the end of the volcanic cycle magma would be extracted from these reservoirs through dikes with a low magma pressure, building hummocky volcanic ridges at low effusion rates. In extreme cases, this volcanic phase would be followed by amagmatic extension until a new magma pulse arrives from the mantle.     

Fouling in offshore areas southeast of the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta, the northern South China Sea

Abstract-In order to understand the type and extent of marine fouling in offshore areas southeast ofthe Zhujiang (Pearl) River delta, within the period form May 1986 to June 1987, two biologicalbuoys were deployed at water depths of 95 m and 113 m located in 114 km and 160 km off the coast ofHong Kong, respectively. Moreover, the fouling community of a Marex hydrological buoy located in115 m depth water 172 km off Hong Kong was also surveyed. The results show that a total of 78species were collected and identified. The panels exposed for 3 months were mainly dominated bystalked barnacles Conchoderma hunteri and Lepas anatifera and hydroids Orthopyxis sp. As for thebuoys, including the subsurface buoy, and their mooring systems exposed for 6 and 12 months, respec-tively, some hard foulers such as common oysters, pearl oysters, acorn barnacles and bryozoans werealso found. The compositions of fouling communities also varied greatly with depth.     

Documenting channel features associated with gas hydrates in the Krishna–Godavari Basin,offshore India

During the India National Gas Hydrate Program (NGHP) Expedition 01 in 2006 significant sand and gas hydrate were recovered at Site NGHP-01-15 within the Krishna–Godavari Basin, East Coast off India. At the drill site NGHP-01-15, a 5–8 m thick interval was found that is characterized by higher sand content than anywhere else at the site and within the KG Basin. Gas hydrate concentrations were determined to be 20–40% of the pore volume using wire-line electrical resistivity data as well as core-derived pore-fluid freshening trends. The gas hydrate-bearing interval was linked to a prominent seismic reflection observed in the 3D seismic data. This reflection event, mapped for about 1 km² south of the drill site, is bound by a fault at its northern limit that may act as migration conduit for free gas to enter the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) and subsequently charge the sand-rich layer. On 3D and additional regional 2D seismic data a prominent channel system was imaged mainly by using the seismic instantaneous amplitude attribute. The channel can be clearly identified by changes in the seismic character of the channel fill (sand-rich) and pronounced levees (less sand content than in the fill, but higher than in surrounding mud-dominated sediments). The entire channel sequence (channel fill and levees) has been subsequently covered and back-filled with a more mud-prone sediment sequence. Where the levees intersect the base of the GHSZ, their reflection strengths are significantly increased to 5- to 6-times the surrounding reflection amplitudes. Using the 3D seismic data these high-amplitude reflection edges where linked to the gas hydrate-bearing layer at Site NGHP-01-15. Further south along the channel the same reflection elements representing the levees do not show similarly large reflection amplitudes. However, the channel system is still characterized by several high-amplitude reflection events (a few hundred meters wide and up to ~ 1 km in extent) interpreted as gas hydrate-bearing sand intervals along the length of the channel.     

Emerging concepts on microbial processes in the bathypelagic ocean – ecology,biogeochemistry, and genomics

This paper synthesizes recent findings regarding microbial distributions and processes in the bathypelagic ocean (depth >1000 m). Abundance, production and respiration of prokaryotes reflect supplies of particulate and dissolved organic matter to the bathypelagic zone. Better resolution of carbon fluxes mediated by deep microbes requires further testing on the validity of conversion factors. Archaea, especially marine Crenarchaeota Group I, are abundant in deep waters where they can fix dissolved inorganic carbon. Viruses appear to be important in the microbial loop in deep waters, displaying remarkably high virus to prokaryote abundance ratios in some oceanic regions. Sequencing of 18S rRNA genes revealed a tremendous diversity of small-sized protists in bathypelagic waters. Abundances of heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF) and ciliates decrease with depth more steeply than prokaryotes; nonetheless, data indicated that HNF consumed half of prokaryote production in the bathypelagic zone. Aggregates are important habitats for deep-water microbes, which produce more extracellular enzymes (on a per-cell basis) than surface communities. The theory of marine gel formation provides a framework to unravel complex interactions between microbes and organic polymers. Recent data on the effects of hydrostatic pressure on microbial activities indicate that bathypelagic microbial activity is generally higher under in situ pressure conditions than at atmospheric pressures. High-throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA genes revealed a remarkable diversity of Bacteria in the bathypelagic ocean. Metagenomics and comparative genomics of piezophiles reveal not only the high diversity of deep sea microbes but also specific functional attributes of these piezophilic microbes, interpreted as an adaptation to the deep water environment. Taken together, the data compiled on bathypelagic microbes indicate that, despite high-pressure and low-temperature conditions, microbes in the bathypelagic ocean dynamically interact with complex mixtures of organic matter, responding to changes in the ocean’s biogeochemical state.     

Basin modeling meets rift analysis – A numerical modeling study from the Jeanne d'Arc basin,offshore Newfoundland,Canada

The Jeanne d'Arc basin, on the Grand Banks offshore Newfoundland, is a confined, failed-rift basin. Its initial development and burial history were controlled by crustal stretching and thinning. This study provides a detailed analysis of the heat flow-, tectonic subsidence-, stretching factor-, maturation- and temperature history, based on 44 1D models- and one full 4D (space and time) model.     

Evolution of provenance in the NE Atlantic rift: The Early–Middle Jurassic succession in the Heidrun Field,Halten Terrace,offshore Mid-Norway

An integrated provenance study using provenance-sensitive heavy mineral ratios, mineral chemistry and U/Pb dating of detrital zircons has revealed significant changes in sediment provenance during deposition of the Early to Middle Jurassic succession in the Heidrun Field, offshore Mid-Norway. The variations result from the interplay of two source regions, one of which was located on the Norwegian landmass and the other on the conjugate East Greenland margin. Sediment sourced from central East Greenland is distinguished by high garnet:zircon, high rutile:zircon, low chrome spinel:zircon, garnet assemblages rich in low-Ca, high-Mg varieties, and zircon populations that include an Archean group, a diverse range of Early–Middle Proterozoic grains, and an Early Paleozoic group. These features indicate derivation from a high-grade (granulite facies) metasedimentary terrain together with Archean basement and Early Paleozoic granitoids. Norwegian-sourced sandstones differ by having lower garnet:zircon and rutile:zircon, variable chrome spinel:zircon, garnet assemblages scarce in low-Ca, high-Mg varieties, and zircon populations that lack an Archean group. Derivation from the Caledonian Nappe Domain, comprising metasediments (predominantly at amphibolite facies), ophiolites and Early Paleozoic granitoids, is indicated. Initially, during deposition of the non-marine lower part of the Åre Formation (Hettangian–Sinemurian), sediment was fed from the west, but in the upper (tidally influenced) part of the Åre Formation (Sinemurian–Pliensbachian), Norwegian-sourced material appears. Greenland-derived material disappears in the subsequent Tilje Formation (Pliensbachian), with the Tilje and subsequent Ror and Ile Formations (Toarcian–Aalenian) being predominantly sourced from the east. The regional regression at the base of the Garn Formation (Bajocian) was accompanied by a switch in provenance, with Greenland-derived material replacing sediment sourced from Norway. Variations in mineralogy offer a framework for correlation on both local and sub-regional scales.     

Phase fractionation and oil-condensate mass balance in the South Marsh Island Block 208–239 area,offshore Louisiana

Phase fractionation can strongly deplete oil of its volatile compounds in a regular and characteristic fashion. This process has affected oils to a remarkably uniform extent throughout the 30 × 15 km South Marsh Island 208–239 and Vermilion 30–31 area (including the Tiger Shoal, Starfak, Mound Point, Lighthouse Point, Amber, Trinity Shoal, and Aquamarine fields) just offshore Louisiana. Fractionation of the original “parent” oil likely occurred in the deep, relatively flat-lying Rob L sand that underlies the area, and produced gas-washed oils (mean API 33°) and gas condensates (mean API 50°) in a volume ratio of 1:3.5. Both fractionated oil and vapor migrated from the fractionation site to shallower reservoirs. However, the estimated ultimate production ratio of gas-washed oil to gas condensate in this group of fields is 1:0.32, about 11 times higher than would be expected on mass balance considerations alone. Thus, there is an apparent deficiency of producible gas condensate relative to the amount of producible oil for the entire study area and for every field in that area. In the case of the Tiger Shoal field, the ratio of industry-estimated ultimately producible oil to gas condensate is 1:1.1. Based on the production data, we conclude that either there is an additional 6.4 × 10⁶ m³ (43 MMbbl) of undiscovered and/or unproduced condensate in the area or that condensate has escaped preferentially in vapor form to the seafloor. The well-studied and nearly depleted Tiger Shoal field provides a good example of how chemical data can be analyzed in a way that contributes insight into the phase fractionation process and the remaining exploration potential of an area.     

Palynology and geochemistry of channel-margin sediments across the tidal–fluvial transition,lower Fraser River,Canada: Implications for the rock record

In the tidally influenced Fraser River, Canada, palynological and carbon isotope (δ¹³C_org) signatures of channel-margin sediments are compared to environmental parameters (e.g., grain size, water salinity) to establish how the signatures vary across the tidal–fluvial transition. Palynological assemblages in the Fraser River are dominated by tree pollen, which constitutes between 85% and 95% of all assemblages. Dinocyst abundances do not exceed 2% of the total palynological assemblage, and the number and diversity of dinocysts gradually decreases landward. The calculated landward limit for dinocysts is at approximately 83 river km, which is relatively close to the upstream limit of the tidal backwater (at ∼100 km). δ¹³C_org values show minimal variability across the tidal–fluvial transition, and the average value is approximately −26‰. The δ¹³C_org signature of river sediments indicates a dominance of terrestrially sourced organic matter regardless of brackish-water and tidal influence on sediment deposition.Six palynological and geochemical trends are identified as relevant to the rock record. 1) In deltaic environments, palynological and geochemical characteristics are less useful than sedimentological and ichnological characteristics for establishing depositional conditions. 2) In marginal-marine settings, low abundances and low species diversities of dinocysts, coupled with a “terrestrial” geochemical signature (δ¹³C_org < −25‰) do not necessarily indicate deposition in a terrestrial environment. 3) Dinocyst abundances above 1% of the total palynomorph population can indicate a significant marine influence on sediment deposition. 4) Mud beds, preferably bioturbated, should be preferentially sampled in order to maximize palynomorph recovery. 5) Marine palynomorphs can occur, albeit in very low concentrations, to the landward limit of the tidal–backwater zone. 6) Palynological and geochemical data should be compared across the paleo-depositional environment in order to establish general trends and remove local variations caused by biases such as grain size.     

Changes in seabed morphology, mud temperature and free gas venting at the Håkon Mosby mud volcano, offshore northern Norway, over the time period 2003–2006

The Håkon Mosby mud volcano is a 1.5-km-diameter geological structure located on the Southwest Barents Sea slope at a water depth of 1,270 m. High-definition seabed mapping of the mud volcano has been carried out in 2003 and 2006. A comparative analysis of the bathymetry and backscatter maps produced from the two surveys shows subtle morphological changes over the entire crater of the mud volcano, interpreted to be the consequence of mud eruption events. Mud temperature measurements point to a persistently warm mud at shallow depth in the crater. This is explained by upward fluid advection, rather than conductive cooling of mud flows. The small-scale spatial variability in the temperature distribution may be related to mud outflows or changes in the fluid flow regime. Furthermore, the locations of free gas venting observed in 2006 were found to differ from those of 2003. Our observations of overall similar topographic profiles across the mud volcano in 2003 and 2006 suggest that eruption events would have been modest. Nevertheless, the data bring evidence of significant change in activity even over short time intervals of only 3 years. This may be a characteristic shared by other submarine mud volcanoes, notably those considered to be in a quiescent stage.     

Multidisciplinary investigations exploring indicators of gas hydrate occurrence in the Krishna–Godavari Basin offshore, east coast of India

We report some main results of multidisciplinary investigations carried out within the framework of the Indian National Gas Hydrate Program in 2002–2003 in the Krishna–Godavari Basin offshore sector, east coast of India, to explore indicators of likely gas hydrate occurrence suggested by preliminary multi-channel seismic reflection data and estimates of gas hydrate stability zone thickness. Swath bathymetry data reveal new evidence of three distinct geomorphic units representing (1) a delta front incised by several narrow valleys and mass flows, (2) a deep fan in the east and (3) a WNW–ESE-trending sedimentary ridge in the south. Deep-tow digital side-scan sonar, multi-frequency chirp sonar, and sub-bottom profiler records indicate several surface and subsurface gas-escape features with a highly resolved stratification within the upper 50 m sedimentary strata. Multi-channel seismic reflection data show the presence of bottom simulating reflections of continuous to discrete character. Textural analyses of 76 gravity cores indicate that the sediments are mostly silty clay. Geochemical analyses reveal decreasing downcore pore water sulphate (SO₄ ²⁻) concentrations (28.7 to <4 mM), increasing downcore methane (CH₄) concentrations (0–20 nM) and relatively high total organic carbon contents (1–2.5%), and microbial analyses a high abundance of microbes in top core sediments and a low abundance of sulphate-reducing bacteria in bottom core sediments. Methane-derived authigenic carbonates were identified in some cores. Combined with evidence of gas-escape features in association with bottom simulating reflections, the findings strongly suggest that the physicochemical conditions prevailing in the study area are highly conducive to methane generation and gas hydrate occurrence. Deep drilling from aboard the JOIDES Resolution during 2006 has indeed confirmed the presence of gas hydrate in the Krishna–Godavari Basin offshore.     

Characteristics of observed turbulent mixing across the Antarctic Slope Front at 140°E, East Antarctica

The strength of mixing due to turbulence in the Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) region was investigated using CTD (conductivity-temperature-depth profilers) observations and direct measurements of turbulence conducted off Adélie Land, East Antarctica along 140°E from the 12th–14th February, 2005. The strongest horizontal gradient of the ASF was located below 300 m depth near the 1000 m isobath. The turbulent measurements revealed that the energy dissipation rate frequently exceeded 10^?8 Wkg^?1 on the continental shelf and upper slope regions. Turbulent diffusivities near the shelf break were higher than 10^?3 m²s^?1. Near the ASF the average turbulent heat flux was 5.7 Wm^?2 and 1.1 Wm^?2 across the temperature minimum layer to 250 m and from 300 to 600 m, respectively. The distribution of the high dissipation rate was consistently explained by the characteristic curve of the M2 internal wave emanating from the shelf break and continental slope. The water mass observed in the ASF below 300 m in the continental slope comprised Modified Circumpolar Deep Water and low salinity Shelf Water originating from either the upper layer of the Adélie Depression or the Adélie Bank, and produced by boundary mixing near the shelf break.     

The pilot project “Patterns and processes of the ecosystems of the northern Mid-Atlantic”: aims,strategy and status

The Mid-Atlantic Ridge is the target of an emerging international ecosystem study under the Census of marine life programme. This pilot project shall gather new knowledge on biodiversity, distribution patterns, and ecological processes, and the overriding aim is “to describe and understand the patterns of distribution, abundance and trophic relationships of the organisms inhabiting the mid-oceanic North Atlantic, and identify and model ecological processes that cause variability in these patterns”. The project will focus on pelagic, benthopelagic and epibenthic macrofauna, and analyse distribution and abundance patterns in relation to the abiotic and biotic environment, as well as trophic relationships and life history strategies. Fish, crustaceans, cephalopods and gelatinous plankton and nekton have the highest priority in the study. A major challenge of the project is to overcome observation difficulties at large depths and in rugged terrain. A central aim is thus to utilise modern remote sensing technology (acoustics, optics) using advanced instrument carriers (e.g. towed vehicles, ROVs, AUVs, etc.). The project will be carried out as a multi-ship operation in 2003–2005, and the ongoing planning is a collaborative effort involving many nations around the North Atlantic. The project will work on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and in adjacent waters from the Azores to Iceland, both by surveying large areas by acoustics and mid-water trawling, and by focusing on three selected sub-areas for intensive sampling and observation by traditional and novel methods and technology. Overlapping with the field seasons, the period 2004–2008 will be an analytical phase, also including submission of data to OBIS.     

Mineral-forming and diagenetic processes related to Tertiary hydrocarbon seepage at the Bohemian Massif/Outer Western Carpathians interface: Evidence from the Hrabůvka quarry,Moravia, Czech Republic

Ancient hydrocarbon seepage occurred in the Hrabůvka quarry at the boundary between the basement of the Bohemian Massif (represented by folded Lower Carboniferous siliciclastics of the Culm facies) and Tertiary sedimentary cover of the Carpathian Foredeep (formed by Lower Badenian siliciclastics and calcareous clays). The unconsolidated Lower Badenian sediments contain lithified domains composed of limestone and breccias with limestone cement, whereas the basement rocks are cut by subvertical neptunic dykes filled up by limestone and calcite-marcasite-pyrite veinlets representing sealed fluid conduits. The deeply negative δ¹³C values of both vein calcite and limestone (down to −38.1‰ V-PDB) indicate that oxidation of hydrocarbons was the major source of carbon for authigenic mineralization. A fluid inclusion study suggests low fluid temperatures (<50 °C) and low and variable salinities of aqueous fluids associated with hydrocarbons (0.7–6.7 wt. % NaCl eq.). The variability of δ¹⁸O values of authigenic carbonates (−1.7 to −8.2‰ V-PDB) could reflect either slight changes in temperature of escaping fluids (mostly within 15 °C), and/or some mixing with meteoric waters. The low δ³⁴S values of vein marcasite (∼–20‰ V-CDT) are consistent with bacterial reduction of sulfate in the hydrothermal system. Low C₁/(C₂+C₃) ratios in hydrocarbon gas extracted from authigenic carbonates (9.9 and 5.8) as well as the high δ¹³C values of methane (−31.8 and −32.4‰ V-PDB) are compatible with a thermogenic source of hydrocarbons. REE data indicate sequestration of REE from finely dispersed detrital material in the apical part of the hydrothermal system. The available data are compatible with two possible scenarios of fluid origin. The hydrocarbons could have been leached from underlying Paleozoic sedimentary sequence by aqueous fluids that infiltrated into the basement after Tertiary tectonic reactivation. Alternatively, an external source of hydrocarbon-bearing fluids can be found in the adjacent Outer Western Carpathians flysch nappes containing petroleum-producing lithologies. Nevertheless, a regional flow of hydrocarbon-bearing fluids is evidenced by the occurrence of very similar hydrocarbon-bearing vein mineralizations in a wider area.     

Geomorphological and ecological features of blowouts in a western Mediterranean coastal dune complex: a case study of the Es Comú de Muro beach-dune system on the island of Mallorca, Spain

Many of the coastal dune systems along western Mediterranean shores are in an advanced state of fragmentation and show distinct signs of erosion, largely because of blowout development along the dune front. The Es Comú de Muro beach-dune system on the island of Mallorca (Spain) is a good example of this. In order to better understand and quantify the current situation, 58 blowouts along a ca. 1.5-km-long dune front were investigated. In each case, a number of morphometric and ecological variables were analyzed as a basis for comparison and classification, in particular blowout dimensions and orientation, inner morphometry and topography, morphological types, the role of vegetation in defining the state of the foremost dune line, and the link between vegetation and blowout typology. In comparison with a recent preliminary investigation, the results of the present study provide a more comprehensive picture of the advanced state of fragmentation along the dune front. The blowouts are not evenly distributed, highest densities occurring along the southernmost part of the beach, lowest densities along the northern part. The blowouts were subdivided into two categories on the basis of their shape and general structure, trough blowouts being the most prevalent, followed by mixed trough-saucer shapes. Distinctly saucer-shaped blowouts could not be distinguished. In addition, the blowouts were subdivided into two morphological categories, i.e. simple and branched. It was also possible to link the morphological state of the dune front to certain ecological parameters, in particular vegetation which, in the present case, comprised herbaceous and woody plants. Cluster analyses of species associations (Bray-Curtis similarity indices) were carried out on the basis of the presence/absence of each species. It is shown that, on account of presence counts and the degree of similarity of species associations, some species play a more important role in stabilizing the mobile dune sands than others, a foremost candidate being Ammophila arenaria. It is concluded that active support for such plants should form part of any management strategy aiming to reduce and reverse coastal dune fragmentation processes.     

Distribution,abundance and population structure of Hexaplex trunculus and Bolinus brandaris (Gastropoda: Muricidae) in offshore areas of the Gulf of Gabès,southern Tunisia

The banded murex Hexaplex trunculus and purple dye murex Bolinus brandaris are frequently caught as bycatch by bottom trawlers operating in the Gulf of Gabès, southern Tunisia. Although these muricid gastropods might importantly constitute an additional source of income for fishermen as well as help to diversify local shellfish production, information on their catches is relatively scarce. Hence, the present study aimed to assess the status of local populations of H. trunculus and B. brandaris, including data on their spatial and depth distributions, abundance, biomass, population structure and mortality. Fishing surveys using bottom trawls were performed between May 2006 and June 2007 in offshore areas of the Gulf of Gabès. In total, 198 fishing hauls were analysed, corresponding to a total fishing duration of 333.3 hours and a total prospecting area of 1 534 ha at depths of 20–86 m. Altogether, 3 026 H. trunculus and 3 599 B. brandaris of a broad size range (22.9?91.1 and 22.4?97.0 mm shell length, respectively) were sampled during the study period. GIS-produced maps were employed to determine the species’ spatial and bathymetric distributions by extrapolating their estimated fishing yield (bycatch per unit effort), abundance, biomass and mortality in relation to the total area surveyed in the gulf. The results provide valuable baseline information that may be applied to management proposals for regulating this untargeted resource, ultimately assisting sustainable exploitation and long-term preservation of this alternative fishing resource in the offshore areas of the Gulf of Gabès.     

A submarine landslide complex affecting the Jan Mayen Ridge, Norwegian–Greenland Sea: slide-scar morphology and processes of sediment evacuation

Swath-bathymetry data and 2D multichannel seismics reveal for the first time an up to ~60 km wide amphitheater-shaped slide scar on the eastern flank of the Jan Mayen Ridge, a micro-continent in the Norwegian–Greenland Sea. The scar opens southeastward where it continues as a narrower, topographically controlled translational area. It includes secondary scars, as well as channels and escarpments. Based on the identification of secondary scars, the slide is classified as a slide complex and the total volume of missing sediments was estimated at ~60 km³. From the overall shape of the scar, the upslope widening from a bottleneck- or channel-like bypass-area, the failure is inferred to have had a retrogressive development. The absence of ridges, slabs and sediment blocks indicates that the failed sediments have been evacuated entirely. The smaller channels were formed from single or repetitive smaller flows post-dating the large failure events.     

The music of the spheres and the prosaicness of statistical criteria: A response to B.L. Berry’s paper “Heliogeophysical and other natural processes,periods of their oscillations,and forecasts”

According to B.L. Berry’s “harmonic model,” any natural or social process is a superposition of several cosmic rhythms. The author assumes that stability of these rhythms allows prediction of earth phenomena over an unlimited time. We show that the statistical criteria supposedly substantiating the harmonic model were applied incorrectly. The initial data for the analysis were biased and selected incompetently; the adequacy of the methods used was not verified. Predictions of natural catastrophes (earthquakes, weather anomalies, etc.) and various social events according to Berry’s model are unsatisfactory. Statistics do not confirm that these predictions are at least slightly better than random guessing. Berry’s model is unacceptable; it is untenable both in detail and in general.