亚洲夏季风爆发的深对流特征

文中应用ＮＯＡＡ卫星反演的１９８０～１９９５年候平均对流层上部水汽亮温（ＢＴ）资料、向外长波辐 射（ＯＬＲ）资料和美国ＮＭＣ全球分析８５０　ｈＰａ风资料与美国ＣＭＡＰ降水资料作了对比分析，发现Ｂ Ｔ能够较好地反映中低纬度地区的深对流降水，偏南风场辐合区与深对流降水有比较一致的 关系，而ＯＬＲ不能反映热带外地区的对流降水。ＢＴ资料所具有的这一特征可以应用于亚洲夏 季风爆发过程的深对流特征分析。ＢＴ描述深对流的临界值是２４４　Ｋ。亚洲季风区是全球深对 流季节变化范围和强度最大的地区。赤道外地区的夏季风爆发可以定义为来自热带地区深对 流的季节扩张。中南半岛上的夏季风对流发生在南海夏季风爆发之前。华南前汛期深对流是 中低纬系统相互作用的结果。第２８候，南海夏季风的突然爆发在降水、风场和卫星反演 的深对流特征上都有明确的反映。南海夏季风爆发后，印度夏季风对流由南向北逐渐爆发， 青藏高原东侧和中国东部沿海的夏季风对流向北推进早于中国中部地区。     

南海夏季风爆发前后深对流传播的多向性

根据1979～2004年NCEP/NCAR的逐日OLR资料, 对南海夏季风爆发前后南海地区热带深对流的纬向和经向传播特征进行分析, 结果表明, 在南海夏季风爆发前后, 热带深对流的传播方向无论是纬向还是经向在各年都不尽相同, 亦即具有多向性。在纬向上, 南海季风区深对流既可以由孟加拉湾向东传播到南海, 也可以由西太平洋向西传播到南海, 也可在南海地区直接生成。但在此时期, 印度季风区纬向传播相对单一, 主要为向西传播。在经向上, 南海地区的对流活动可以受到来自南半球热带地区和北半球中纬度的共同影响, 但印度季风区主要受热带地区对流的影响。上述结果表明, 南海夏季风爆发期季风区对流活动远比印度季风区复杂, 南海夏季风爆发的深对流云系既可来源于其东西侧, 也可来源于其南北侧, 或是局地发展。作者进一步分析了造成不同深对流来源的机制, 发现低空副高不同的移动路径是造成这一多样性的可能原因, 这可能也是目前对部分年份南海夏季风爆发日期确定存在争议的原因。     

高分辨率卫星实测资料揭示的近年亚洲热带夏季风爆发进程

利用高分辨率卫星观测资料,从气候态角度分析了亚洲热带夏季风爆发特征。研究表明,亚洲热带夏季风最先在中南半岛西部爆发,随后在整个中南半岛和孟加拉湾东部,然后扩大至孟加拉湾西部和南海。夏季风爆发后,与孟加拉湾和南海相比,中南半岛雨量增强形势不明显。第26—28候（即5月第2候—5月第4候）是亚洲热带夏季风的爆发阶段。整个爆发过程,低层风场的时空演变与对流降水相对应,海表温度场增温较海表风场提早约1候左右;华南地区以锋面降水为主,即副热带季风降水。采用对流降水和海表上空10 m风场分别代表夏季风降水和盛行风向的时空演变特征较常规资料更为准确、精细。     

亚洲热带气候态夏季风涌传播特征及其对中国降水的影响

基于1979—2020年逐日的NOAA向外长波辐射资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料,以及全球CMAP再分析降水资料,探讨了气候态亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播过程及与我国夏季相应的降水联系。分析结果表明,主汛期亚洲热带气候态夏季风季节内振荡(CISO)活动是亚洲夏季风活动的主要特征,随时间北传的亚洲热带夏季风CISO称为亚洲热带夏季风涌,主要有南亚夏季风涌和南海夏季风涌。亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播可分为四个阶段。在亚洲热带夏季风涌的发展阶段,印度洋区域低频气旋与对流活跃,孟加拉湾和南海热带区域被低频东风控制,我国大部分地区无降水发生,降水中心位于两广地区。当进入亚洲热带夏季风涌活跃阶段,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低频气旋和对流活跃,东亚低频“PJ”波列显著,我国降水中心北移到长江以南的附近区域。亚洲热带夏季风涌减弱阶段,孟加拉湾与南海低频气旋消亡,对流减弱,低频西风加强,日本南部附近为低频反气旋控制,我国长江中下游低频南风活跃,降水中心也北移到长江中下游地区,而华南地区已基本无降水,此阶段的大气低频环流场与亚洲热带夏季风涌发展阶段基本相反。进入亚洲热带夏季风涌间歇阶段时,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低...     

关于亚洲夏季风爆发及北半球季节突变的物理机理的诊断分析:Ⅱ青藏高原及邻近地区地表感热加热的作用

本文是系列文章的第二篇,首先分析了１９８９年亚洲夏季风爆发时期青藏高原及邻近地区地表感热通量和大气温度场季节变化的基本特征,着重讨论了春季高原地表感热加热和亚洲季风爆发的联系,然后分析了１９８０～１９８９年１０ａ南海季风爆发的气候学特征。上述工作表明,在春末初夏过渡季节,高原上空大气温度变化出现阶段性的跃升,并同亚洲夏季风阶段性的爆发有很好的对应关系。高原地表感热通量的持续增大导致了对流层高层局地反气旋式扰动环流的出现,使南亚反气旋北进的过程明显受到高原局地热力环流的调制,而热带东风急流入口区所产生的强烈的高层辐散,提供了有利于热带季风对流在南海地区首先爆发的动力学条件。此外,从５月份至６月中下旬,青藏高原、伊朗—阿富汗上空强大暖中心相继建立的结果,直接导致了热带地区上空大气南北温度梯度的反向依次在南海—孟加拉湾东部和阿拉伯海—印度次大陆由东向西相继建立,从而决定了亚洲季风建立的过程在不同地区爆发的时间不同。     

亚洲季风季节进程的若干认识

简要归纳了不同时期随着观测资料的更新对亚洲季风季节进程的若干认识。南海季风试验前,研究认识了东亚季风系统与南亚季风系统的区别。南海季风试验后,对季风进程有了更多的认识,江南副热带雨季开始于4月初,中印半岛热带雨季开始于4月底,南海热带雨季突然建立于5月中旬,都具有半年际的干湿转换。南海中部季风爆发后,亚洲季风在南亚、青藏高原东侧和东亚-太平洋地区全面爆发并由南向北推进。利用近年来高分辨率资料并考虑热带地区半岛陆海地形与热力的影响,认识到亚洲存在5个夏季季风槽与降水相联系的系统,它们分别是西南亚(阿拉伯海)夏季热带季风、南亚(孟加拉湾)夏季热带季风、东南亚(南海)夏季热带季风、西北太平洋夏季热带季风和东亚夏季副热带季风。     

热带对流活动与低频波流相互作用

利用ＥＣＭＷＦ客观分析资料，使用Ｂａｔｔｅｒｗｏｒｔｈ带通滤波技术，应用诊断分析的方法研究了１９８３／１９８４和１９８６／１９８７两年冬季中纬度地区低频波流间的相互作用特征，强调了热带地区对流活动的差异对于这种相互作用的重要影响。     

2007年南海夏季风的爆发过程

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、向外长波辐射(outgoing long-wave radiation,OLR)资料以及卫星、地面站点降水资料,对2007年南海夏季风爆发前后的对流活动、环流形势及降水分布进行研究,结果表明:2007年对流活动增强首先出现在孟加拉湾东岸,然后扩展到南海地区;同时副高东撤北抬,南海夏季风于5月中下旬(29候)爆发;季风爆发后,南海地区开始盛行西南气流,亚洲中低纬地区南北温差(风向切变)由正(负)变负(正).2007年南海夏季风爆发期间,水汽输送和季风涌活动增强使我国东部地区降水增多.     

南海西南季风爆发日期及其影响因子

利用1950～1999年NCEP全球格点日平均资料,在总结南海西南季风爆发前后850 hPa大气环流特征的基础上,提出了一个较为客观的确定南海西南季风爆发日期的大气环流方法.在与1980～1991年其他多种指标确定的爆发日期比较后,作者认为该大气环流方法所确定的爆发日期基本合理,并给出了1950～1999年各年南海西南季风爆发的日期.通过合成对比分析和相关分析发现,前期热带太平洋地区海温异常分布是影响南海西南季风爆发早晚的重要因素.菲律宾以东洋面海温偏高,赤道太平洋中部偏东地区海温偏低,可以使低层西太平洋副高减弱、高层中东太平洋洋中槽加深,印度洋热带地区偏西风偏强,印度洋-太平洋热带地区Walker环流偏强,为热带对流在孟加拉湾-南海地区发展提供了有利的环境.在孟加拉湾南部偏西气流的作用下,南海地区对流活动较为容易发展起来,低层较弱的西太平洋副热带高压也容易较早地撤出南海上空,使得南海西南季风较早爆发.反之亦然.     

4—5月南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立的年际变化特征及其与亚洲南部夏季风的关系

利用1979--2008年NCEP／NCAR逐日再分析资料和向外长波辐射资料讨论了4-5月南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立的年际变化特征及其与亚洲南部夏季风的关系。发现南亚高压建立偏早年其建立过程时间长,中南半岛高空反气旋环流强,建立开始前位于菲律宾群岛以东洋面上空的反气旋环流中心位置较为偏西;偏晚年南亚高压建立过程时间短,中南半岛高空反气旋环流弱,建立开始前西太平洋上空无闭合的反气旋性环流中心。南亚高压建立的早晚与中南半岛地区对流建立发展关系密切,当中南半岛地区对流建立发展较早时,南亚高压建立较早;反之,对流建立发展偏晚时,南亚高压建立偏晚。南亚高压建立早晚年,亚洲南部夏季风的爆发存在明显差异。南亚高压建立偏早年,孟加拉湾东部一中南半岛夏季风和南海夏季风爆发早;建立偏晚年,孟加拉湾东部一中南半岛夏季风和南海夏季风爆发晚,因此南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立的早晚对后期亚洲南部夏季风的爆发具有较好的指示意义。     

ON THE PROCESS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER EAST ASIA*

Using daily observational rainfall data covered 194 stations of China from 1961 to 1995 and NCEP model analyzed pentad precipitation data of global grid point from 1979 to 1997,the distribution of onset date of rainy season over Asian area from spring to summer is studied in this paper.The analyzed results show that there exist two stages of rainy season onset over East Asian region from spring to summer rainy season onset accompanying subtropical monsoon and tropical monsoon respectively.The former rain belt is mainly formed by the convergence of cold air and the recurred southwesterly flow from western part of subtropical high and westerly flow from the so-called western trough of subtropical region occurring during winter to spring over South Asia.The latter is formed in the process of subtropical monsoon rain belt over inshore regions of South China Sea originally coming from south of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basin advancing with northward shift of subtropical high after the onset of tropical monsoon over South China Sea.The pre-flood rainy season over South China region then came into mature period and the second peak of rainfall appeared.Meiyu,the rainy season over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin and North China then formed consequently.The process of summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea in 1998 is also discussed in this paper.It indicated that the monsoon during summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea is the result of the westerly flow over middle part of South China Sea,which is from the new generated cyclone formed in north subtropical high entering into South China Sea,converged with the tropical southwesterly flow recurred by the intensified cross-equatorial flow.     

ON THE PROCESS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER EAST ASIA

Using daily observational rainfall data covered 194 stations of China from 1961 to 1995 andNCEP model analyzed pentad precipitation data of global grid point from 1979 to 1997,thedistribution of onset date of rainy season over Asian area from spring to summer is studied in thispaper.The analyzed results show that there exist two stages of rainy season onset over East Asianregion from spring to summer rainy season onset accompanying subtropical monsoon and tropicalmonsoon respectively.The former rain belt is mainly formed by the convergence of cold air and therecurred southwesterly flow from western part of subtropical high and westerly flow from the so-called western trough of subtropical region occurring during winter to spring over South Asia.Thelatter is formed in the process of subtropical monsoon rain belt over inshore regions of South ChinaSea originally coming from south of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basin advancing with northwardshift of subtropical high after the onset of tropical monsoon over South China Sea.The pre-floodrainy season over South China region then came into mature period and the second peak of rainfallappeared.Meiyu,the rainy season over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin and North China thenformed consequently.The process of summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea in 1998is also discussed in this paper.It indicated that the monsoon during summer tropical monsoononset over South China Sea is the result of the westerly flow over middle part of South China Sea,which is from the new generated cyclone formed in north subtropical high entering into SouthChina Sea,converged with the tropical southwesterly flow recurred by the intensified cross-equatorial flow.     

东亚地区夏季风爆发过程

利用中国194站1961～1995年日降水资料及NCEP1979～1997年候格点降水资料,探讨了亚洲地区自春到夏的雨季开始分布。结果表明,东亚地区自春到夏存在副热带季风雨季开始和热带季风雨季开始。前者于4月初开始于华南北部和江南地区,随后向南和向西南扩展,于4月末扩展到华南沿海和中南半岛,这个雨带主要是冷空气和副热带高压西侧转向的SW风以及南亚地区冬春副热带南支西风槽中西风汇合而形成的,是副热带季风雨季开始。后者是南海热带季风爆发后使原来由江南移到华南沿岸的副热带季风雨带随副热带高压北进而北进,前汛期雨季进入盛期,江南出现第二次雨峰,形成梅雨期和江淮及华北雨季。同时,热带季风雨带也自东向西传播到达南亚地区而形成热带季风雨季。还讨论了1998年东亚地区夏季风爆发过程,指出南海夏季风爆发期的季风由副高北侧形成的新生气旋进入南海造成南海中部西风和南海越赤道气流转向的SW季风加强汇合而形成,因而是东亚季风系统中环流系统季节变化造成的,和印度季风无关。在南海季风爆发期阿拉伯海仍由副热带反气旋控制,南亚仍是上述副热带反气旋北侧NW风南下后转向的偏西副热带气流所控制,索马里低空急流仍未爆发,赤道西风并未影响南海。     

Simulation of the annual and diurnal cycles of rainfall over South Africa by a regional climate model

The capability of a current state-of-the-art regional climate model for simulating the diurnal and annual cycles of rainfall over a complex subtropical region is documented here. Hourly rainfall is simulated over Southern Africa for 1998–2006 by the non-hydrostatic model weather research and forecasting (WRF), and compared to a network of 103 stations covering South Africa. We used five simulations, four of which consist of different parameterizations for atmospheric convection at a 0.5 × 0.5° resolution, performed to test the physic-dependency of the results. The fifth experiment uses explicit convection over tropical South Africa at a 1/30° resolution. WRF simulates realistic mean rainfall fields, albeit wet biases over tropical Africa. The model mean biases are strongly modulated by the convective scheme used for the simulations. The annual cycle of rainfall is well simulated over South Africa, mostly influenced by tropical summer rainfall except in the Western Cape region experiencing winter rainfall. The diurnal cycle shows a timing bias, with atmospheric convection occurring too early in the afternoon, and causing too abundant rainfall. This result, particularly true in summer over the northeastern part of the country, is weakly physic-dependent. Cloud-resolving simulations do not clearly reduce the diurnal cycle biases. In the end, the rainfall overestimations appear to be mostly imputable to the afternoon hours of the austral summer rainy season, i.e., the periods during which convective activity is intense over the region.     

Evolution of Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Tropica lWestern Pacific/South China Sea and Its Effect to the Summer Precipitation in Southern China

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Evolution of intraseasonal oscillation over the tropical western pacific / south china sea and its effect to the summer precipitation in southern china{1{

In this paper, the evolution of intraseasonal oscillation over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific area and its effect to the summer rainfall in the southern China are studied based on the ECMWF data and TBB data) analyses. A very low-frequency waves exist in the tropics and play an important role in dominating intraseasonal oscillation and lead to special seasonal variation of intraseasonal oscillation over the South China Sea / tropical western Pacific area. The intraseasonal oscillation (convection) over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific area is closely related to the summer rainfall (convection) in the southern China. Their relationship seems to be a seesaw feature, and this relationship resulting from the different pattern of convection in those two re-gions is caused by the different type of local meridional circulation     

Seesaw Pattern of Rainfall Anomalies between the Tropical Western North Pacific and Central Southern China during Late Summer

It is well known that suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) induces an anticyclonic anomaly,and this anticyclonic anomaly results in more rainfall along the East Asian rain band through more water vapor transport during summer, as well as early and middle summer. However, the present results indicate that during late summer(from mid-August to the beginning of September), the anomalous anticyclone leads to more rainfall over central southern China(CSC), a region quite different from preceding periods. The uniqueness of late summer is found to be related to the dramatic change in climatological monsoon flows: southerlies over southern China during early and middle summer but easterlies during late summer. Therefore, the anomalous anticyclone, which shows a southerly anomaly over southern China, enhances monsoonal southerlies and induces more rainfall along the rain band during early and middle summer. During late summer,however, the anomalous anticyclone reflects a complicated change in monsoon flows: it changes the path, rather than the intensity, of monsoon flows. Specifically, during late summers of suppressed convection in the tropical WNP, southerlies dominate from the South China Sea to southern China, and during late summers of enhanced convection, northeasterlies dominate from the East China Sea to southern China, causing more and less rainfall in CSC, respectively.     

东亚夏季风次季节变化研究进展

东亚夏季风次季节（10~90 d）变化是中国夏季持续性强降水、高温热浪等高影响天气事件的重要环流载体,处于天气预报上限和气候季节预测下限之间的预报过渡区。研究表明:东亚夏季风次季节变化是东亚夏季风的固有物理特征,它和季节进程之间的时间锁相关系是东亚夏季风次季节变化潜在可预报性的重要来源。东亚夏季风次季节变化与Madden-Julian振荡（MJO）存在显著差异,试图通过MJO来预测东亚夏季风次季节变化的不确定性较大。东亚夏季风次季节预测的另一重要来源是下垫面外强迫,包括欧亚大陆春季积雪、中国东部春季土壤湿度和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件。此外,去趋势偏-交叉相关分析统计方法能够分析东亚夏季风多因子和多时间尺度问题。目前,亟需解决的科学问题包括:东亚夏季风次季节模态的客观定量描述、造成东亚夏季风次季节模态年际变化的关键物理过程、不同外强迫因子对东亚夏季风次季节模态的共同影响。     

影响南海夏季风爆发年际变化的关键海区及机制初探

利用1958—2011年NCEP/ NCAR再分析资料和ERSST资料,采用Lanczos时间滤波器、相关分析、回归分析、合成分析和交叉检验等方法,研究了影响南海夏季风爆发年际变化的关键海区海温异常的来源与可能机制。结果表明,前冬(12—2月)热带西南印度洋和热带西北太平洋是影响南海夏季风爆发年际变化的关键海区。冬季热带西南印度洋(热带西北太平洋)的异常增暖是由前一年夏季El Ni?o早爆发(强印度季风异常驱动的行星尺度东-西向环流)触发、热带印度洋(西北太平洋)局地海气正反馈过程引起并维持到春季。冬季热带西北太平洋反气旋性环流(气旋性环流)及印度洋(热带西北太平洋)的暖海区局地海气相互作用使得印度洋(热带西北太平洋)海温异常维持到春末。春季,逐渐加强北移到10 °N附近的低层大气对北印度洋(热带西北太平洋)暖海温异常响应的东风急流(异常西风)及南海-热带西北太平洋维持的反气旋性环流(气旋性环流)异常,使得南海夏季风晚(早)爆发。