地震作用下华丽高速公路金沙江桥华坪岸顺层边坡动力稳定性评价

以华丽金沙江桥华坪岸顺层边坡地震稳定问题为研究对象,在slide下利用Janbu-simplified法计算了其最不利滑动面和安全系数,为模型试验确定了宽900 m×高450 m的试验范围。采用拟静力法,在Phase 2D下利用有限元强度折减法模拟模型边坡,计算了0.00g、0.10g、0.15g、0.20g、0.25g、0.30g、0.35g等7个地震工况的安全系数和位移。对比不同工况下的安全系数、位移与水平地震加速度曲线,结果表明,（1）极限平衡法与强度折减法所得安全系数在1.0附近安全系数离散性最小,远离1.0则安全系数的离散性增大,差异是两类方法极限状态定义的不同造成的。基于安全系数确定的临界水平地震加速度为0.20g;（2）剪应变揭示的边坡破坏模式为桥墩位置拉剪破坏、T2凝灰岩主滑和前缘近于水平剪出破坏,坡体内部的变形响应敏感性为水平位移＞竖向位移＞剪应变。基于变形演化规律确定的临界值为0.15g～0.20g,相应水平位移预警值为10.2 mm,室内模型试验验证了上述分析的合理性;（3）综合确定华坪岸顺层边坡临界水平地震加速度为0.2g,50年超越概率为10%和100年超越概率为2%对应的安全系数分别约为1.2和1.1,华坪岸边坡在现行抗震设防标准下是安全的。当前选择安全系数作为边坡稳定性评价指标,而安全监控实践中一般选择可操作性和预警性强的变形值作为控制指标,所以边坡稳定性评价需要采取安全系数与临界位移相结合的方法。     

基于拟静力法的不同地震工况斜坡单元危险性评价方法研究

地震造成斜坡失稳是其引起的最为显著的次生灾害,在小震频发,大震多发的现实背景下,开展不同等级地震作用条件下斜坡危险性评价对区域防灾减灾、地质灾害风险管控及国土空间规划的现实意义日渐凸显。基于拟静力法,根据斜坡所处场地类别和不同超越概率水平地震作用,对其地震动峰值加速度进行调整,确定斜坡不同等级地震作用下的综合水平地震系数,计算不同等级地震作用引起的作用于斜坡重心处的水平和竖向惯性力,以极限平衡法为理论基础,计算不同等级地震作用下斜坡稳定性系数,结合危险性指数法,计算不同等级地震作用下斜坡失稳概率和危险性指数,据此对斜坡不同等级地震作用下的危险性进行划分。结果表明斜坡稳定性系数随地震作用的增强逐渐减小,斜坡失稳概率随地震作用的增强逐渐增大,斜坡危险性指数随地震作用的增强逐渐增大,斜坡危险性亦随地震作用的增强逐渐增大。     

地震效应和坡顶超载对均质土坡稳定性影响的拟静力分析

基于强度折减技术和极限分析上限定理,假定机动容许的速度场破坏面,考虑坡顶超载、水平和竖向地震效应影响推导了边坡稳定性安全系数的计算表达式。采用序列二次规划迭代方法（和内点迭代方法）对边坡安全系数目标函数进行能量耗散最小化意义上的优化计算,与多个算例的对比验证了其方法和程序计算的正确性;对影响土质边坡动态稳定性的一些因素进行了参数分析,分析表明：随着边坡倾角?、坡顶超载q、水平和竖向地震效应影响系数的增大,边坡稳定性安全系数显著下降;随着坡顶超载q、水平地震效应影响系数kh的增大、竖向地震效应影响系数kv的减小,边坡的潜在滑动面越来越深,潜在破坏范围越来越大。竖向地震效应对边坡稳定性也有一定影响,强震条件下的设计计算必须考虑竖向地震效应的影响。     

锚固岩石边坡地震稳定性拟动力分析

地震易发地区的锚固岩石边坡,需要研究其地震稳定性。对于锚固典型岩石边坡,在考虑水平与竖向地震力、张裂缝积水深度、坡顶超载、锚索倾角、锚索位置、锚索拉力及静水与动水压力等的条件下,运用拟静力和拟动力方法分别推导了不同工况条件下其抗滑和抗倾覆地震安全系数。分析表明,竖向向上地震力有利于锚固岩石边坡的抗滑稳定,而竖向下的地震力有利于锚固岩石边坡的抗倾覆稳定;在相同工况条件下,当岩体放大系数等于1.0时,拟动力与拟静力方法所得锚固岩石边坡地震安全系数相差无几,但是,当岩体放大系数逐渐增大时,拟动力方法所得地震安全系数越来越明显地小于拟静力方法所得地震安全系数。因此,在抗震设计当中适当的考虑岩体放大系数,将会有利于锚固岩石边坡的安全设计。     

考虑能量-时间分布的边坡动力可靠性分析新方法

提出一种考虑能量-时间分布的边坡动力可靠性分析方法。该方法将动态最危险滑动面及其稳定系数以时间序列加以刻画,并根据边坡动力反应的能量分布特征,提取持续时间统计窗,用于对上述时间序列的统计分析,以获取边坡动力模糊失效概率、边坡动力可靠度指标和基于保证率的边坡动力稳定系数。以澳大利亚计算机应用协会边坡稳定考核题为例,应用上述新方法考察其在芦山7.0级主震波形条件下的稳定性,研究了在不同统计窗下的边坡动力可靠性。案例分析表明： （1）新方法能够抓住影响边坡动力稳定的主要时间段,使分析结果更为凝练、可信。（2）通过引入边坡失效状态的模糊判别,使得可靠性评价中能够考虑模糊性,解决了以往常规方法区分度不够的问题。（3）基于保证率的边坡动力稳定系数具有很好的应用前景,它在内涵上体现了可靠性分析,在形式上与静力稳定系数的定义兼容,在数值上反映了边坡瞬时动力稳定系数的保守估计值,在实践上与现行规范的拟静力法具有良好的可比性,因而具有多方面的优势。（4）就本案例而言,动力条件下最危险滑动面的发育位置趋向于静力条件下的最危险滑动面,体现了依据静力和拟静力理论框架所进行的防护工程设计,在动力条件下仍然具有积极的意义。（5）新方法对定量研究现行边坡规范的抗震设计冗余提供了一条途径。提出的新方法为边坡抗震研究提供了新的思路、方法和可供参考的实例。     

Seismic reliability analysis of earth slopes under short term stability conditions

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading. The 3-D slope stability model assumed is that of a simple cylindrical failure surface. The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake induced acceleration and uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in-situ values of shear strength parameters. The models also takes into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The probabilistic analysis and design approach is capable of obtaining the 2-D and 3-D static and dynamic safety factors, the probability of slope failure, the earthquake induced acceleration coefficient, the yield acceleration coefficient, the earthquake induced displacement, and the probability of allowable displacement exceedance taking into account the local site effect. The approach is applied to a well known landslide case: Congress Street Landslide in Chicago. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the different parameters involved in the models by applying those models to the Congress Street landslide considering different levels of seismic hazard. Also, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the sensitivity of computed results to input parameters of undrained shear strength, and corrective factors. A comparison was made between the different models of failure. The parametric study revealed that the hypocentral distance and earthquake magnitude have major influence on the earthquake induced displacement, probability of failure and dynamic 2-D and 3-D safety factors.     

地震作用下土钉支护边坡震后位移分析

基于土钉弹性支座假设,考虑了地震作用时边坡滑动体实时动态滑移对土钉受力的影响,结合拟静力极限平衡法推导了土钉受力实时动态变化与边坡震后位移计算表达式,提出了一种地震作用下土钉支护边坡震后位移计算的改进方法。结合算例分析表明,考虑与不考虑土钉受力实时动态变化的两种计算方法获得的边坡水平位移时程曲线规律基本一致,皆呈阶跃式增大趋势,但考虑土钉受力实时动态变化的改进计算方法得出的震后位移较不考虑的结果小,两种方法计算结果的差异随着土坡整体稳定性的提高而逐渐减小。结合相关文献中土钉支护边坡振动台试验数据,验证了改进方法的合理性。     

Pseudo-static Analysis of Reinforced Earth Retaining Wall considering Non-linear Failure Surface

The seismic stability of reinforced earth has been investigated in this paper using pseudo-static method of analysis considering horizontal and vertical seismic acceleration with non-linear failure surface. The sliding wedge is divided into a number of horizontal slices to determine the strength and length of the geo-synthetic reinforcement for seismic internal stability of battered face rigid retaining wall supporting c-Φ backfill. Results are presented in graphical form representing the required length of geo-sythetic reinforcement under seismic condition to maintain the internal stability of reinforced soil. The influences of horizontal and vertical seismic acceleration, soil friction angle, cohesion, adhesion and wall inclination angle on the required length of the geo-sythetic reinforcement have been studied. From the present study it is seen that the required length of geo-synthetic reinforcement increases due to increase in the value of seismic accelerations.     

A new rating system approach for risk analysis of rock slopes

In this paper, an approach is presented to analyze the stability risk of rock slopes based on a new rating system. Three factors are used to estimate the risk level of rock slopes: (1) failure probability, (2) element at risk rating, and (3) vulnerability rating. Element at risk and vulnerability ratings are both given a range from 0 to 10, and the probability of failure is varied between 0 and 1, so the risk rating ranges between 0 and 100. This risk rating can be used to determine both the quantitative and qualitative risk levels of slopes at the same time. The method is tested on the western sector of the slopes facing Songun copper plant phase III, Iran, to clarify its procedures and assess its validity. Deterministic kinematic analyses showed that the slope has a potential for circular failure. Risk assessments revealed that the risk levels of the slope in both static and pseudo-static conditions are “very low” and “high,” respectively.

     

Seismic Stability Analysis of a Himalayan Rock Slope

The seismic slope stability analysis of the right abutment of a railway bridge proposed at about 350 m above the ground level, crossing a river and connecting two huge hillocks in the Himalayas, India, is presented in this paper. The rock slopes are composed of highly jointed rock mass and the joint spacing and orientation are varying at different locations. Seismic slope stability analysis of the slope under consideration is carried out using both pseudo-static approach and time response approach as the site is located in seismic zone V as per the earth quake zonation maps of India. Stability of the slope is studied numerically using program FLAC. The results obtained from the pseudo-static analysis are presented in the form of Factor of Safety (FOS) and the results obtained from the time response analysis of the slope are presented in terms of horizontal and vertical displacements along the slope. The results obtained from both the analyses confirmed the global stability of the slope as the FOS in case of pseudo-static analysis is above 1.0 and the displacements observed in case of time response analysis are within the permissible limits. This paper also presents the results obtained from the parametric analysis performed in the case of time response analysis in order to understand the effect of individual parameters on the overall stability of the slope.     

A new rating system approach for risk analysis of rock slopes

In this paper, an approach is presented to analyze the stability risk of rock slopes based on a new rating system. Three factors are used to estimate the risk level of rock slopes: (1) failure probability, (2) element at risk rating, and (3) vulnerability rating. Element at risk and vulnerability ratings are both given a range from 0 to 10, and the probability of failure is varied between 0 and 1, so the risk rating ranges between 0 and 100. This risk rating can be used to determine both the quantitative and qualitative risk levels of slopes at the same time. The method is tested on the western sector of the slopes facing Songun copper plant phase III, Iran, to clarify its procedures and assess its validity. Deterministic kinematic analyses showed that the slope has a potential for circular failure. Risk assessments revealed that the risk levels of the slope in both static and pseudo-static conditions are “very low” and “high,” respectively.     

地震效应下非线性抗剪强度参数对裂缝边坡稳定性影响的上限解析

基于非线性Mohr-Coulomb破坏准则,结合极限分析上限法和拟静力分析法,建立功能方程,推导了地震效应下裂缝边坡的安全系数计算方程。采用数学规划方法,计算了不同参数组合条件下的边坡安全系数值,详细分析了非线性条件下一系列参数对边坡稳定性的影响。研究表明,边坡安全系数随非线性参数和地震效应的增大而减小。对比分析可知,在非线性破坏准则下,裂缝深度较大时,裂缝对边坡稳定性影响显著,且边坡越陡影响越大;当裂缝深度超过某个值后,临界破坏面起始端可能不穿过裂缝最底端,而是从裂缝中间某部位穿过。在地震效应作用下,非线性抗剪强度参数对安全系数影响显著。研究成果进一步完善了裂缝边坡稳定性分析内容,所列图表为边坡的设计与施工提供有益参考。     

随机地震作用下滑坡稳定性可靠度分析

应用边坡可靠性分析中常用的蒙特卡罗法,并结合稳定性计算的剩余推力法和Sarma法,研究随机地震作用下边坡的可靠性。以三峡库区黄土坡滑坡为例,分析了地震效应对边坡稳定性的影响。计算结果表明:地震加速度对滑坡稳定性影响显著;竖向地震加速度小于水平地震加速度2/3时,对滑坡稳定性影响较小,大于水平加速度时,对滑坡稳定性影响明显。因此在一般工程设计中,可以只考虑水平向的地震作用,而对于设计烈度较大的大型工程,则应同时考虑水平向和垂直向的地震作用。      

重力坝层间抗滑稳定体系的动力可靠度分析方法

受明显的层状结构影响,加之材料参数和动荷载的双重随机性,动力条件下碾压混凝土重力坝的层间抗滑稳定可靠度问题值得关注。考虑地震波频谱特性、峰值加速度、坝体材料参数的随机性,统计概化出地震作用下坝体的潜在滑动失效路径;在特定地震动作用下,基于随机有限元分析结果,采用刚体极限状态判断准则和响应面法构建失效路径的动力抗滑稳定功能函数,进而求得其抗滑稳定可靠指标;接着考虑不同失效路径的相关性,用Ditlevsen窄界限公式估算体系的可靠度;最后,考虑地震动荷载的随机性,采用基于全概率公式的数值拟合积分方法求解大坝抗滑稳定体系的动力可靠度。研究结果表明,动力条件下,当水平地震系数大于0.2时,重力坝层间抗滑体系可靠度不再由建基面失效路径决定,而是由下游折坡处层面的失效路径决定。该方法数学意义明确,实用性强。     

Analysis of seismic hazard in landslide-prone regions: criteria and example for an area of Daunia (southern Italy)

In relation to the assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard, this paper discusses general principles and describes implementation criteria for seismic hazard estimates in landslide-prone regions. These criteria were worked out during the preparation of a hazard map belonging to the official Italian geological cartography and they are proposed as guidelines for future compilation of similar maps. In the presented case study, we used a procedure for the assessment of seismic hazard impact on slope stability adopting Arias intensity Ia as seismic shaking parameter and critical acceleration a _c as parameter representing slope strength to failures induced by seismic shaking. According to this procedure, after a preliminary comparison of estimated historical maximum values of Ia with values proposed in literature as landslide-triggering thresholds, a probabilistic approach, based on the Newmark’s model, is adopted: it allows to estimate the minimum critical acceleration a _c required for a slope to keep under a prefixed value, the probability of failures induced by seismic shakings expected in a given time interval. In this way, one can prepare seismic hazard maps where seismic shaking is expressed in an indirect way through a parameter (the critical acceleration) representing the “strength” that seismic shakings mobilise in slope materials (strength demand) with a prefixed exceedance probability. This approach was applied to an area of Daunia (Apulia—southern Italy) affected by frequent landslide phenomena. The obtained results indicate that shakings with a significant slope destabilisation potential can be expected particularly in the north-western part of the area, which is exposed to the seismic activity of Apennine tectonic structures.     

路堤边坡稳定可靠度计算中的模型不确定性分析

基于均质路堤边坡Monte Carlo法的稳定可靠度计算,分析了临界滑面搜索策略和稳定分析方法两类模型不确定性对边坡可靠度的影响特性,讨论了边坡失效概率随土工参数变异性的变化规律。研究表明,选用不同的临界滑面搜索策略所得可靠度结果差异不大,参数滑面法（overall slope）的失效概率略大于均值滑面法（global minimum）,但差别对边坡稳定性分析没有实质性影响;土性参数变异水平是影响边坡可靠度的最重要因素,边坡在相同设计参数安全系数下的可靠度指标随参数变异性增大而急剧降低;不同稳定性分析方法对应的安全系数概率密度函数曲线形态基本一致,但失效概率差异明显,因此目标可靠度指标取值应与稳定性分析方法相适应。提出的考虑土工参数变异水平的安全系数取值修正原则,对改进确定性设计的边坡稳定分析技术有积极意义。     

Observations on the pseudostatic analysis of embankments and slopes with arbitrary seismic force inclination

A simple method for evaluating the seismic stability of embankments and slopes has been developed by modifying the generalized procedure of slices proposed by Janbu. A pseudostatic analysis is carried out. The seismic force is represented through its horizontal and vertical components, acting on the centre of gravity of the soil mass. Defining a nominal state of plastic equilibrium, the safety factor of the slope for a given value of the seismic force is obtained through an iterative procedure that converges very rapidly. Moreover, by assuming a seismic force of intensity varying from zero value (static condition) up to a limit value, depending on the seismicity of the area, one can obtain the “influence lines” of the horizontal and vertical acceleration. Finally, a directional parametric analysis has been carried out considering a seismic force of a given intensity, acting in a direction varying from 0° to 360° with respect to the vertical axis through the gravity centre of the slope. By means of this procedure it is possible to locate a “critical zone” for the slope, i.e., that one within which any seismic force can cause the failure of the slope. Moreover, it appears that it is incorrect to consider only the horizontal acceleration in the stability analyses of slopes under earthquake loading conditions, as the most dangerous direction is usually different from the horizontal one.     

考虑场地效应的高陡岩质斜坡地震失稳机制

以金沙江乌东德水电站右岸的鸡冠山梁子高陡斜坡为典型实例,在斜坡表层地震动监测基础上,通过在斜坡弹性模型底部分别输入水平、竖向Ricker子波,发现：斜坡顶部低模量岩体材料在水平Rick子波激励下,易产生放大效应;而当输入竖向Rick子波时,易在模型表层地形凸起部位产生共振放大,其顶面表层卓越频率也与现场实测值基本一致。其次,对比分析了在分别输入汶川八角什邡加速度记录、典型鲁甸地震加速度记录时的斜坡弹塑性模型的稳定性和动力响应特征,发现：（1）斜坡在静力条件下可能存在3种不同位置潜在滑面,但输入两种地震波后,变形破坏区仅发生在顶部滑面位置;（2）输入汶川地震波时,斜坡顶部滑面剪应变增量明显大于输入鲁甸地震波时对应值,且前者的滑面出现明显整体拉破坏区,滑面上部水平、竖向残余变形也不收敛,处于震后斜坡失稳状态。后者滑面底部无明显的拉破坏区,滑面上部残余变形收敛,处于震后斜坡稳定状态;（3）斜坡水平、竖向加速度都在斜坡顶部低模量材料表层出现明显的放大现象,场地效应明显。此外,表层加速度普遍大于斜坡内部相应值,尤其是地形凸起位置。输入汶川地震波时斜坡顶部水平向加速度放大系数大于鲁甸地震波相应值,但竖向加速度放大系数两者基本一致。     

基于Newmark模型的概率地震滑坡危险性模型参数优化与应用:以鲁甸地震区为例

应用概率地震危险性评价模型进行地震滑坡危险性区划,是解决潜在地震诱发滑坡危险性评价中震源不确定性与诱发滑坡时空不确定性的有效方法 .通过理论分析,结合鲁甸地震区的实际情况,对基于力学原理的Newmark滑块位移模型与概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法中的参数的不确定性问题进行了分析,将斜坡岩土体地震作用下的强度衰减效应、地震加速度地形放大效应、断层破碎带效应融合到了斜坡累积位移计算模型中,进行了模型计算参数的优化.改进后的分析模型,更好地反映了高陡斜坡地形与断层破碎带对地震滑坡灾害发育的控制作用,在鲁甸地震区域滑坡应用中,优化模型中的滑坡失稳极高风险区与实际地震滑坡分布表现出了较好的一致性,在超越概率2%的滑坡失稳概率分布中,鲁甸地区包谷垴-小河断裂、鲁甸-昭通断裂带及牛栏江河谷地带地震滑坡高-极高风险区分布面积增幅十分显著.因此,在Newmark滑块位移模型中考虑地震动参数与岩土参数动态响应规律与变量间的定量关系,对于提高区域斜坡稳定性分析的可靠性具有重要意义.     

Slope vulnerability to earthquakes at subregional scale, using probabilistic techniques and geographic information systems

The susceptibility of slopes to failure during earthquakes is calculated, in terms of critical horizontal acceleration, on a subregional scale for the upper part of the Serchio River basin (Tuscany, Italy). According to the working scale (1:10 000) and to the availability and accuracy of the input data, the infinite slope analysis was judged to be the most appropriate method, but particular attention was devoted to the error evaluation due to spatial variability of the geotechnic, geometric, and hydrologic parameters. A geologic, geomorphologic and hydrologic survey of the area was therefore performed, and the geotechnic parameters were collected at local administrations. All the data were stored in a GIS, used as a tool to build the spatial and attribute data base and to prepare the input data layers for the stability analysis. In order to assess the variability of geotechnic parameters, a statistical analysis was performed to assign the best-fitting probability distribution to cohesion, angle of internal friction and unit weight of the soil. As hydrogeologic data were not available for the area, only surface hydrology information could be used; a map of probability of spring occurrences was derived by a bayesian method, the Weight of Evidence Modelling, and was used as groundwater indicator. A Monte Carlo procedure and a first-order second-moment method were applied and compared as error estimators in assessing the slope susceptibility to failure. The differences between the two methods are discussed, and two maps showing, respectively, the critical horizontal acceleration and the probability of failure associated with each slope are presented, together with the curve plotting the reliability index against the probability of failure.