基于水文过程的泥石流预报中前期有效降水量的确定方法

前期有效降水量是泥石流预报的一个关键因子,但是确定此关键因子的常用方法存在参数取值过于人为主观化的问题。为解决这一问题,提出利用模拟降雨截留、入渗和蒸散发等水文过程的方法确定泥石流预报中的前期有效降雨量,并利用基于流域水土耦合机制的泥石流预报系统预报四川省在2013年7月9日的泥石流灾害来检验该方法。结果表明:利用水文过程模拟方法确定的前期有效降水更适用于泥石流预报,泥石流预报的漏报率比常用的降雨衰减经验公式低21.1%,能更好地为泥石流防灾减灾服务。     

A new data assimilation procedure to develop a debris flow run-out model

Parameter calibration is one of the most problematic phases of numerical modeling since the choice of parameters affects the model’s reliability as far as the physical problems being studied are concerned. In some cases, laboratory tests or physical models evaluating model parameters cannot be completed and other strategies must be adopted; numerical models reproducing debris flow propagation are one of these. Since scale problems affect the reproduction of real debris flows in the laboratory or specific tests used to determine rheological parameters, calibration is usually carried out by comparing in a subjective way only a few parameters, such as the heights of soil deposits calculated for some sections of the debris flows or the distance traveled by the debris flows using the values detected in situ after an event has occurred. Since no automatic or objective procedure has as yet been produced, this paper presents a numerical procedure based on the application of a statistical algorithm, which makes it possible to define, without ambiguities, the best parameter set. The procedure has been applied to a study case for which digital elevation models of both before and after an important event exist, implicating that a good database for applying the method was available. Its application has uncovered insights to better understand debris flows and related phenomena.     

沟床起动型泥石流的10 min降雨预报模型

针对沟床起动型泥石流的诱发因素为高强度短历时的降雨,提出10 min降雨强度是这类泥石流暴发的关键。在1 h预报模型的基础上,基于云南蒋家沟的多年泥石流观测资料,修正了1 h预报模型的降雨参数,并得到了10 min降雨预报模型。10 min降雨预报模型在中国西部的其他流域,如云南浑水沟、贵州望谟县打易区域泥石流沟、四川三滩沟、四川雅安陆王沟和干溪沟、甘肃柳湾沟、甘肃马槽沟等流域的验证中,取得了较好的结果。10 min降雨预报模型是部分建立在泥石流的形成机理上的模型,并不是完全的统计模型,因此该模型也可以用于其他地区的沟床起动类型泥石流预报。     

沟谷型泥石流地质灾害调查评价方法研究——以皖南小容泥石流地质灾害调查为例

在总结皖南地区泥石流主要特征的基础上,重新梳理了沟谷型泥石流调查评价过程中的调查要素和评价因子,提出了沟谷型泥石流调查评价工作方法:对沟谷进行泥石流初步评价,以可搬运物源量和可淤积容量比值系数作为初步评判标准;以沟谷泥石流集水盆地形态特征、可搬运物源属性分布及储量、堆积区地形等特征作为主要调查内容,对易发性评价因子赋予分值.在此基础上,以皖南小容泥石流地质灾害调查为例,探讨更直观、更科学、更切合实际的沟谷型泥石流地质灾害调查评价工作方法.     

台风暴雨型泥石流单沟危险度研究

台风暴雨型泥石流分布广泛并常造成重大灾害,有必要对其危险度进行研究。选取温州山区的14处典型台风暴雨型泥石流为研究对象,构建了基于组合因子的单沟泥石流危险度评价模型。选取泥石流规模（M）、泥石流频率（F）、冲沟纵比降（J）、形成区完整系数（C）、台风降雨综合值（E）和地质综合因子（G）来表征泥石流危险程度,并基于信息熵理论获得各组合因子权重值。针对研究区均为低频泥石流的特点,引入麦尔登比率（R值）以间接确定基于不同R值范围的泥石流爆发频率（F）。将评价模型应用于所选的典型沟谷,得到各沟谷泥石流危险度,评价结果符合研究区泥石流沟谷为中、小型低频泥石流的实际情况,并且评价为危险度高的沟谷具备区域上最易形成泥石流的地质地貌条件。     

我国“地质灾害危险性评估技术要求”中的有关问题——以泥石流灾害为例

针对我国试行的《地质灾害危险性评估技术要求(试行)》存在的问题,认为地质灾害危险性评估应该包括区域评估、流域评估和场地评估三个层次.阐述和分析了顶层设计与区域评估、流域评估和场地评估的任务和内容,对地质灾害危险性评估范围、评估分级、调查内容(以泥石流为例)、评估内容、提交成果,以及评估报告参考提纲等,提出了具体修订建议.     

北京市泥石流易发区降雨预警阈值研究

泥石流灾害合理的雨量预警阈值不仅与历史泥石流灾害发生时的降雨量有关,且与研究区域的气候、地形地貌、地质、植被等密切相关。论文采用雨场分割法和GIS技术研究了影响泥石流启动的降雨和地质背景两大因素,在对北京市泥石流灾害易发分区的基础上,结合北京地区已发生的82起泥石流的易发性分区和雨量值,提出了不同泥石流易发等级条件下的雨量预警阈值。研究成果已经在2015年7月17日北京房山区西区沟泥石流预警中成功应用,为泥石流区域预警预报提供了一种新的思路。     

A well-balanced numerical scheme for debris flow run-out prediction in Xiaojia Gully considering different hydrological designs

To simulate debris flow run-out, the governing equations for free-surface shallow flow are corrected by setting the basal flow resistance coefficients with the quadratic rheological friction model. A well-balanced numerical scheme is developed for its run-out simulation over irregular topography. A linear reconstruction is adopted for improving the spatial accuracy of the numerical scheme. Considering the complex friction terms of governing equations of debris flow, they are estimated with a full implicit scheme for ensuring stability of the numerical scheme. The validity check of run-out simulation is implemented based on general knowledge of fluid, and a well-studied case occurred in the Xiezi Gully in Yingxiu Town, Sichuan Province of China. For practical purpose, the present numerical scheme is used for run-out prediction of debris flow in Xiaojia Gully of Panzhihua City, Sichuan Province of China. Our work aims to present a well-balanced numerical scheme for debris flow run-out simulation prediction, which can be applied quite conveniently to solve other kinds of debris flow models and helpful to promote the development in debris flow numerical calculation.     

基于Logistic回归及前期有效雨量的降雨诱发型滑坡预测方法

滑坡预测预报一直是国内外滑坡灾害研究的重点。且多数滑坡均属降雨诱发型。为此将降雨诱发型滑坡的研究列为重中之重。但是,降雨与滑坡发生的关系不仅密切,而且非常复杂。除降雨外,还涉及到地质、气象、水文、土壤等多个学科。因此,至今尚未总结出一种对降雨诱发型滑坡进行定量预测预报的成熟方法。文章将Logistic回归模型与前期有效降雨量结合,形成一套对降雨诱发型滑坡进行定量预测预报的方法。并以长江三峡地区为例进行了检验,效果较好。     

浙东南山丘区泥石流爆发的临界雨量分析

首先对浙东南山区泥石流的形成条件（物源、地形和降水条件）进行了研究。随后研究了本区泥石流的基本特征：在形成方式上,以谷坡或沟源地带的土动力启动方式为主;在侵蚀特征方面,主要有面蚀作用和沟谷侵蚀作用;堆积特征方面,在宏观上当规模较大时可形成堆积扇,规模较小时往往以停积于中下游沟道为主;微观上,主要表现为堆积物质结构杂乱,个别具有期次性。对本区泥石流临界雨量组合进行分析,认为采用基于区域临界雨量组合的泥石流预警预报方法较为合理。利用研究区内4次群发泥石流时的降雨特征值确定了本区泥石流爆发的临界雨量组合,并将其应用于研究区泥石流的临灾预警,分为以下步骤：①收集实时降雨资料;②绘制实时雨量组合曲线;③泥石流灾害预警;④泥石流临界雨量基准的修正。     

泥石流屈服应力测试的塌落度法

屈服应力是泥石流的关键流变参数,但目前该参数的获取主要依赖常规的流变仪,无法对含有粗大颗粒的泥石流进行测试。针对此问题,引入塌落度-屈服应力理论,采用直径和高度均为10.8 cm的圆柱塌落度桶对“2010.8.18”怒江东月各泥石流堆积物原样中上限粒径为2 mm和2 cm的部分进行了塌落度-屈服应力测试研究,两种上限粒径重构泥石流屈服应力的测试结果分别采用桨叶法（桨式流变仪）和斜面法（斜面流变仪）进行校验。实验结果表明:对于上限粒径为2 mm的泥石流,塌落度法与桨叶法测试结果基本相同,相对误差为1.47%~17.5%,平均相对误差为7.37%;对于上限粒径为2 cm的泥石流,塌落度法测试结果平均略大于斜面法,相对误差为12.27%~19.07%,平均相对误差为16.89%;理论分析表明,该圆柱形塌落度法适用于碎屑上限粒径为42 mm、塌落度不小于10.8 mm的泥石流。塌落度法不仅可以大幅度提高测试对象的上限粒径,而且测试精度较高,尤其适合于泥石流屈服应力的现场测试。     

新安江模型中河网汇流参数Cs的一种计算方法

新安江模型河网汇流参数Cs主要取决于河网形态及地貌特征规律,针对PUB（Prediction in Ungauged Basin）问题,从物理机理分析的角度,构建描述河网汇流动态变化的微分方程并给出适当的定解条件,用解析法得出微分方程的解,从而探索出在无实测水文资料地区适用的Cs计算方法。选取中国湿润地区和半湿润地区25个流域,统计并分析了各流域次洪模型的Cs计算值和率定值。结果表明,从总体来看计算值和率定值基本上相等;不论流域是否分块,提出的Cs计算方法均适用;当其他参数保持不变,虽然Cs取计算值时所得到的次洪模拟结果略逊于取率定值的模拟结果,但误差在可接受的范围之内,也能取得良好的模拟效果;如果令Cs取计算值,再重新率定其余的各项参数,能够使模拟精度得到进一步提高。采用该法可推求无实测资料地区的汇流参数Cs值,使模型在无资料地区的应用成为一种可能。     

Prediction method of debris flow by logistic model with two types of rainfall: a case study in the Sichuan, China

Debris flow is a serious disaster that frequently happens in mountainous area. This study presents an effective method for forecasting it by rainfall, which is one of the important components for prediction. The Sichuan Province is taken as an example. The geographic information system (GIS) is chosen as a tool to estimate the precipitation of hazard point, and use of statistical technique is made to calculate attenuation coefficient of effective antecedent precipitation. With such methodologies, the logistic regression model is used to comparatively establish the prediction model of two forms rainfall combination: (1) intraday rainfall and 10-day previous rainfall, (2) intraday rainfall and two types of effective antecedent rainfall which are short-time-heavy rainfall and long-time-light rainfall. The results indicate that the location of debris flows and the distribution of rainfall are factors interrelated. Secondly, the contribution rate of intraday rainfall is the highest. Thirdly, the second form rainfall combination has a higher prediction accuracy, 2.3% for short-time-heavy rainfall and 2.1% for long-time-light rainfall, which suggests that a moderate improvement is achieved by the rainfall classification.     

A quantitative approach for debris flow inception and propagation analysis in the lead up to risk management

Landslides - This paper presents a quantitative analysis of debris flows in weathered gneiss through a methodology to identify key aspects in the lead up to risk management. The proposed...     

A prediction method using grey model for cumulative plastic deformation under cyclic loads

Being able to predict cumulative plastic deformation of soil under cyclic loading has been quite a popular subject for researchers both in the past and at present. In this paper, a non-equal interval non-homogeneous exponential grey model NNGM (1, 1) for cumulative plastic deformation has been put forward by improving the traditional grey model GM (1, 1). The proposed model was evaluated by numerous experimental data of existing literatures and found to be valid for a wide range of soils. It is also valid for predicting long-term settlement of subgrade under subway loads and has a better performance than the traditional model GM (1, 1) as well as non-homogeneous exponential model NEM.     

降低矿产资源定量预测不确定性的双向预测方法

成矿过程是一个复杂的物理化学过程,由于地质自身的不确定性、原始数据采集和处理的不当、预测方法中经验参数的不确定性等多重因素的叠加,造成矿产资源定量预测结果中潜在大量不确定性.在科学认识这些不确定性的基础上,如何降低不确定性是预测评价研究的一个重要方向.以地质异常理论和成矿动力学为指导,双向预测评价方法是降低地质异常分析...