单沟泥石流灾害风险简易评价模型

按照灾害风险评价的一般框架,定性定量相结合,运用沟谷、降水、成灾因子、遭遇特征与易损程度等五项指标,尝试提出单沟泥石流灾害风险简易评价模型,并结合防治规划,提出了单沟泥石流灾害风险管理对策建议。采用云南新平县泥石流灾害调查数据,开展了实例校验,结果表明,该模型基本反映了沟谷泥石流灾害的相对风险水平,可为现阶段管理提供更加明确的分级依据。     

基底侵蚀对高速流动性滑坡运动性影响的模拟分析

高速流动性滑坡运动距离远,破坏性强。这类滑坡在运动过程中常裹挟大量的松散物质,导致滑坡的体积和致灾范围增大,该现象被称为基底侵蚀效应。以往的研究指出基底侵蚀效应对这类滑坡的运动性有显著的影响,但却很少有研究考虑其对滑体性质的影响,以及如何对其进行量化。因此,本文基于动量守恒原理建立了考虑基底侵蚀效应的滑坡运动模型,利用有限差分法求解,并依据滑坡的侵蚀深度来计算侵蚀导致的滑坡性质变化。利用改进的模型对陕西泾河南岸的西庙店滑坡进行模拟分析。结果表明,滑坡运动可分为启动加速阶段（0~5 s）和运动减速阶段（5~14 s）。在启动加速阶段,基底侵蚀程度低,对滑体运动的影响较弱。而在运动减速阶段,基底侵蚀效应降低了滑带土强度,对该滑坡的运动产生了明显的促进作用,致使其发生远程运动。此外,对比考虑和不考虑基底侵蚀两种工况的模拟结果还发现,考虑这种影响时,模拟所得的运动范围及地形与实测吻合良好,而未考虑时模拟所得运动范围明显偏小。因此,本文的模型可对这类滑坡的运动过程进行更为有效的模拟。     

An integrated model simulating the initiation and motion of earthquake and rain induced rapid landslides and its application to the 2006 Leyte landslide

A gigantic rapid landslide claiming over 1,000 fatalities was triggered by rainfalls and a small nearby earthquake in the Leyte Island, Philippines in 2006. The disaster presented the necessity of a new modeling technology for disaster risk preparedness which simulates initiation and motion. This paper presents a new computer simulation integrating the initiation process triggered by rainfalls and/or earthquakes and the development process to a rapid motion due to strength reduction and the entrainment of deposits in the runout path. This simulation model LS-RAPID was developed from the geotechnical model for the motion of landslides (Sassa 1988) and its improved simulation model (Sassa et al. 2004b) and new knowledge obtained from a new dynamic loading ring shear apparatus (Sassa et al. 2004a). The examination of performance of each process in a simple imaginary slope addressed that the simulation model well simulated the process of progressive failure, and development to a rapid landslide. The initiation process was compared to conventional limit equilibrium stability analyses by changing pore pressure ratio. The simulation model started to move in a smaller pore pressure ratio than the limit equilibrium stability analyses because of progressive failure. However, when a larger shear deformation is set as the threshold for the start of strength reduction, the onset of landslide motion by the simulation agrees with the cases where the factor of safety estimated by the limit equilibrium stability analyses equals to a unity. The field investigation and the undrained dynamic loading ring shear tests on the 2006 Leyte landslide suggested that this landslide was triggered by the combined effect of pore water pressure due to rains and a very small earthquake. The application of this simulation model could well reproduce the initiation and the rapid long runout motion of the Leyte landslide.     

油气管道穿越黄土冲沟的管线设计参数研究

长输油气管道经过黄土冲沟边坡时常常采用斜井穿越的方式,采用数值强度折减法与实际地形建模结合的方法,以陕西千阳黄土冲沟边坡为例,通过对黄土力学参数的不断折减,以收敛性准则作为边坡是否产生滑动的破坏判据,根据边坡滑动时的位移等值线图确定了边坡潜在滑动面的形状及位置,确定了管线穿越斜井的初始安全设计参数;基于初步设计参数研究了管线斜井开挖过程中井周土体的位移变化规律,并对斜井开挖后黄土冲沟边坡的稳定性安全系数进行了进一步分析计算。分析结果表明,所给出的管线穿越斜井设计参数的确定方法,能在设计阶段有效避开冲沟边坡潜在滑动区,基于这种设计参数使得管道斜井施工对边坡稳定性影响很小,边坡安全系数由1.162变为1.156,变化不大。根据计算结果,对斜井支护区域也提出了合理的建议。     

Comprehensive analyses of the initiation and entrainment processes of the 2000 Yigong catastrophic landslide in Tibet,China

The 2000 Yigong landslide was one of the most catastrophic landslides worldwide, resulting in huge casualties and property losses. The dynamic process of the Yigong landslide was very complicated, especially for the initiation and entrainment mechanism during the landslide movement process. The topography, geological condition, traces left by the landslide, and distribution characteristics of the landslide deposits were determined by field investigations, combined with several years of monitoring the temperature and rainfall data in this region. The initiation mechanism of the Yigong landslide is presented. The main reasons for the landslide initiation are as follows: the strength reduction of rock masses (especially for the weak structural surface), the impact from years of freeze-thaw cycles, the superposition of glacier melting and heavy rainfall on the slope, and a slope that was almost at the limit state before the landslide. Laboratory tests and physical modeling experiments were carried out to study the entrainment process of this landslide. Combined with the topographic survey data and theoretical analyses, the entrainment mechanism during the movement process of the Yigong landslide is presented. The old landslide deposits on the lower slope collided with and were scraped by the high-speed debris avalanche, which resulted in the volume amplification of the landslide. The existence of water plays a key role during the landslide initiation and movement processes.     

低山丘陵区典型滑坡-泥石流链生灾害特征与成灾机理

2019年6月10—13日,龙川县发生持续强降雨,导致全县境内发生大量滑坡、泥石流灾害,贝岭镇米贝村是三个重灾区之一。本文以贝岭镇米贝村6号沟发生的滑坡-泥石流链生灾害为研究对象,在野外精细化调查测量基础上,结合数值模拟分析与计算,对链生灾害特征与成灾机理展开研究。研究发现:①6号沟内共发育7处浅层土质小型滑坡,仅3号滑坡体与部分6号滑坡体转化为泥石流,构成泥石流主要物源,其余滑坡未构成持续性影响;②持续降雨下渗,坡体由非饱和向饱和状态转变,坡表形成连续饱和区,孔隙水压力的增加与孔隙水的软化促使土体强度降低,加之坡体饱和自重的增大,斜坡发生浅表层失稳破坏;③降雨的持续下渗与支沟沟源“漏斗状”地形下的地表汇水快速增大滑坡松散堆积体内的含水率,促使其物理性质发生变化,在重力势能下呈流态状启动、运动转化为泥石流。降雨结构影响滑坡-泥石流链生过程,前期降雨引发滑坡、后期降雨启动形成泥石流,滑坡与泥石流的发生表现出阶段性特征。研究成果有助于指导当地政府进一步开展滑坡-泥石流链生灾害的防灾减灾工作,也为该地区未来区域预警研究工作提供理论支撑。     

强震区侵蚀-溃决型泥石流的动力特性定量分析

强震作用导致流域内松散物源、微地貌及水文环境发生剧烈变化,致使强震区泥石流的形成机制和活动规律区别于普通泥石流。从启动判别、沟床侵蚀和溃决放大效应等3个方面入手,利用物理模型和数值模拟,定量分析了强震区泥石流启动-流通-堆积全过程的动力特性。结合案例验证了强震侵蚀-溃决型泥石流的力学机制。分析表明,泥石流沟床侵蚀是外部应力增加、内部强度衰减和松散物质基础3种机制的综合结果,沟道堰塞体溃决导致泥石流流量被瞬间放大,进而反馈到侵蚀机制中,导致泥石流规模剧增。红椿沟8·14泥石流案例验算显示,H02、H03堰塞体溃决导致泥石流流量放大至800.80m3·s-1,沟床侵蚀物质总量达34.72×104m3,约占总规模的50%。     

The Zymoetz River landslide, British Columbia, Canada: description and dynamic analysis of a rock slide–debris flow

The Zymoetz River landslide is a recent example of an extremely mobile type of landslide known as a rock slide–debris flow. It began as a failure of 900,000 m³ of bedrock, which mobilized an additional 500,000 m³ of surficial material in its path, transforming into a large debris flow that traveled over 4 km from its source. Seasonal snow and meltwater in the proximal part of the path were important factors. A recently developed dynamic model that accounts for material entrainment, DAN3D, was used to back-analyze this event. The two distinct phases of motion were modeled using different basal rheologies: a frictional model in the proximal path and a Voellmy model in the distal path, following the initiation of significant entrainment. Very good agreement between the observed and simulated results was achieved, suggesting that entrainment capabilities are essential for the successful simulation of this type of landslide.     

人工降雨条件下冲沟型泥石流起动试验研究

下垫面以位于贡嘎山东坡的熊家沟为模型,开展了不同降雨强度条件下冲沟型泥石流起动的模拟试验,初步研究了冲沟型泥石流的形成机理和演化特征.试验研究表明:(1)在强降雨条件下,水体入渗速度、不同深度土体含水量变化与降雨强度呈反比例关系,降雨强度越大,越不利于水体入渗,而有利于坡面汇流、冲沟径流和下切侵蚀; (2)在强降雨和径流条件下,土体破坏方式、破坏程度以及泥石流形成机理表现出差异性.相对较小雨强降雨条件下,土体破坏方式以滑坡为主,泥石流形成模式表现为滑坡液化与转化起动,雨强较大降雨条件下,土体破坏方式以侵蚀垮塌为主,泥石流形成模式为洪流席卷垮塌体和沟床揭底; (3)起动试验中泥石流阵性特征明显.在强降雨条件下,雨强与泥石流的规模、黏度之间没有正相关性,雨强越大,泥石流黏度越小,试验中多出现的是高含砂洪流,而相对较小雨强作用下由土体液化转化形成的泥石流黏度较大.试验现象和结果与熊家沟泥石流起动、发生过程具有较高的一致性.     

Case study of the Agacli landslide–gully complex during post-coal-mining reclamation and afforestation

The concept of sustainable development has gained wide acceptance in the fields of mining and environmental studies. Mining is a temporary activity, but its impact on the environment persists long after mine closure. The aim of this research is to investigate the effect of land-use change on the stability of the Agacli landslide, northern coastal part of the Istanbul (Turkey), spanning periods of mining, reclamation, and afforestation. Geological and geophysical surveys were performed to determine the effects of erosion on the landslide. To assess the possibility of water responsible for triggering a landslide–gully complex, the dynamic elastic parameters of the field are calculated. Field observations indicate that surface erosion and gully development have ceased in the afforested area; however, gullies in non-forested areas continue to increase in size and depth. Uncontrolled surface water and water from stock watering ponds have trigger erosion and rapid sedimentation of the landslide–gully complex, resulting in over-steepening and enhanced landslide activity on the flanks of the main slide.     

Shallow landslide hazard assessment using a physically based model and digital elevation data

 A model for the analysis of topographic influence on shallow landslide initiation is applied to an experimental mountain basin where high-resolution digital elevation data are available: the Cordon catchment (5 km²) located in northern Italy. The model delineates those areas most prone to shallow landsliding due to surface topographic effects on hydrologic response. The model is composed of two parts: a steady-state model for shallow sub-surface runoff and an infinite-slope Coulomb failure model which assumes that the soil is cohesionless at failure. An inventory of landslide scars is used to document sites of instability and to provide a test of model performance by comparing observed landslide locations with model predictions. The model reproduces the observed distribution of landslide locations in a consistent way, although spatial variations in soil strength and transmissivity, which are not accounted for in the model, influence specific distribution of landslide areas within regions of similar topographic control. Received: 15 October 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Mechanism of the catastrophic June 2017 landslide at Xinmo Village,Songping River,Sichuan Province,China

On June 24, 2017, a catastrophic landslide (Xinmo landslide) occurred on the left bank of Songping river in Diexi town, Sichuan Province, China. Based on field investigations, this paper tries to reveal the cause and mechanism of the initiation and development of the Xinmo landslide. Xinmo landslide is located in the so called “Minshan block.” This tectonic block is very active and generates many earthquakes. Among them, the 1933 Diexi Ms 7.5 earthquake which had an indispensable effect on the occurrence of the Xinmo landslide, whose distance to the recent Xinmo landslide is only 8.7 km. The 1933 earthquake triggered the collapse of the Qianxin gully, which damaged the rock mass forming the source of the Xinmo landslide and creating a free prominent ridge. The later 1976 Songpan Ms 7.2 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake further damaged the integrity of the rock mass in the source area of the 2017 Xinmo landslide. The Xinmo landslide developed on a typical bedding dip slope with metasandstone intercalated with a few thin bedded slate layers. The slate intercalation gives the slope a very low shear strength in the dip direction and the long term rainfall may have softened the slip zone and the locked section. These two aspects have promoted the occurrence of Xinmo landslide.     

考虑滑床摩擦弱化的大光包滑坡运动机制DDA数值模拟研究

2008年汶川发生M_S8.0级地震,此次地震触发了大约20万处滑坡,其中大光包滑坡是汶川地震触发的最大规模的滑坡,其复杂的高速远程运动机理引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。本文结合热分解及动态结晶将地震中断层间摩擦弱化机制(闪速加热导致热分解及粉末润滑)运用于大光包滑坡高速远程运动的模拟。本文通过修改非连续变形分析(DDA)程序中强度参数的输入方式,以基于速度变化的强度参数取代原DDA程序中的常数强度参数,进而实现了摩擦系数随接触两侧相对速度变化的动态调整。运用修改后的DDA对大光包滑坡的运动过程进行模拟。模拟结果表明滑床摩擦弱化是导致大光包滑坡高速远程运动特征的重要原因,修改后的DDA由于考虑了滑床摩擦弱化能够更加合理地模拟滑坡的高速远程运动特征,本文模拟的大光包滑坡在地震作用下失稳后,由于滑床摩擦弱化,更多的能量转化为动能,高速滑体掠过黄洞子沟后,爬上对面的平梁子,最终由于平梁子的“急刹车”作用,滑体停止运动。与修改前DDA相比,修改后的DDA对大光包滑坡运动过程和最终堆积形态的模拟结果与已有文献记载和野外调查结果相吻合。这也间接证明了大光包滑坡滑动过程中由于白云岩间摩擦闪速加热导致热分解及粉末润滑造成的摩擦系数降低,可能是造成大光包滑坡高速远程运动的重要原因。     

西藏易贡大滑坡成因探讨

2000年4月9日, 西藏林芝地区波密县易贡藏布札木弄沟发生了体积超过3×108 m3的特大规模滑坡, 这是该沟100年(1900—2000年)来发生的第2次大规模滑坡.在卫星遥感影像分析基础上, 结合地质、气象、地震等资料, 对札木弄沟100年内2次发生特大规模滑坡的原因进行了分析, 表明这2次滑坡是地质构造、地层岩性、新构造运动、水文和气象因素共同作用的结果.分析结果还显示, 札木弄沟已进入下一个物质与能量积累过程, 在适当的外部条件作用下, 有可能再次发生滑坡.      

弯曲海底峡谷中浊流的三维流动及沉积的初步研究

海底浊流的运动及其沉积,是目前浊流研究的热点之一。根据经过验证的基于雷诺平均纳维尔-斯托克斯方程及浮力项修正 k-ε 湍流模型的三维数值计算模型模拟了海底弯曲圆弧形峡谷内的浊流的流动和沉积,结果表明:（1）浊流在运动过程中由于对环境水体的夹带厚度不断增加,浊流厚度一般会超过峡谷深度,溢出峡谷,使浊流产生密度和动量损失;（2）浊流到达弯道部分后,由于离心力的作用会产生剥离,溢出更多的浊流至漫滩区域。浊流剥离的最大处为弯道顶点外岸下游处,其过量密度可达入流的37.5%;（3）对于模拟的横剖面为圆弧型的峡谷内的浊流来说,弯道顶点处的二次流在底部形成一个顺时针的循环圈,靠近峡谷底部从外岸指向内岸;（4）在峡谷中间及弯道顶点内岸下游处形成沉积,在弯道顶点外岸下游处形成侵蚀。这些特征对根据浊流的沉积观察推测其形成环境及油气储层的调查等方面有一定的参考意义。     

Stability analysis of the 2007 Chehalis lake landslide based on long-range terrestrial photogrammetry and airborne LiDAR data

On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm³ landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38 m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and three-dimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The three-dimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope.     

平推式滑坡启动判据的修正

对平推式滑坡启动判据的传统研究往往忽略滑块后缘的静水压力沿滑面法向的分力及承压水作用的具体范围,因而导致计算结果不准确。通过对平推式滑坡进行全面的受力分析,同时引入了承压水作用范围的概念,最终推导出修正后的平推式滑坡启动判据公式。将所得的修正判据应用于模型试验的结果分析,发现修正方法计算结果比传统方法大6.0%～15.5%,更加接近于试验观测值,验证了修正判据的准确性。同时对平推式滑坡启动临界水头的模型试验结果和修正计算值之间的差异进行了机理分析：当边坡模型滑动面倾角小于等于8°时,渗流的时滞性和渗透层的不均匀性导致启动临界水头实测值大于修正计算结果;当倾角大于8°时,模型稳定性随试验时间增加而逐步降低,导致启动临界水头实测值小于修正计算结果。     

确定性模型在黄土沟壑区斜坡稳定性预测中的应用

SHALSTAB耦合了稳态水文假定模型和无限斜坡稳定性模型,主要用于评价浅层滑坡稳定性的时空分布和发展趋势。选择黄土高原甘肃陇东地区华池县作为研究区,评价SHALSTAB模型在黄土沟壑区浅层滑动稳定性分析中的适用性和可靠性,利用1:5 000地形图获得了数字高程模型和地形坡度,以及室内和现场试验的物理力学参数,结合现场钻探和探槽得到的土层厚度分布和地表稳定性指数等级分布图。现场测量绘制的滑坡分布图与模拟结果对比和统计分析表明,SHALSTAB模拟的总体正确率为70.23%,滑坡预测正确率为72.33%,稳定状态预测正确率为67.51%,模拟效果良好。     

基于小流域的地震扰动区降雨型滑坡泥石流危险性评价方法

地震扰动区存在大量震裂松散坡体,在持续或者密集的降雨条件下极易转化为滑坡灾害。同时,滑坡又会给泥石流提供大量松散固体物质,增加泥石流的危险性。因此,在震区,灾害通常以"链"的形式出现,比单一灾种危害性大。为了更有效地对地质灾害危险性进行评价,笔者将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链,综合地加以分析和研究。选择5·12汶川大地震中受灾严重的都江堰市白沙河流域的17条泥石流沟作为研究区,建立滑坡-泥石流危险性评价耦合模型,研究24 h不同降雨量条件下小流域滑坡泥石流危险性的变化。耦合模型包括了坡体稳定性评价模型,水文模型及以泥石流规模、发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域高差、切割密度、不稳定斜坡比为评价因子的泥石流危险性评价统计模型。研究结果表明:随着降雨量的增大,参与泥石流活动的松散物质方量持续增加,但当24 h降雨量超过200 mm后,泥石流沟的危险度等级不再发生变化;17条泥石流沟中4条为中危险度,12条为高危险度,1条为极高危险度。这说明研究区地质灾害问题相当严峻,在多雨季节存在泥石流群发的可能性,直接威胁到居住在泥石流沟附近的人民群众生命财产安全;因此,对于有直接危害对象的高危险度及其以上的泥石流沟,应该按照高等级设防标准进行工程治理及发布预警报。同时也说明,将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链研究具必要性和可行性。     

一种考虑曲面地形效应的流动性滑坡运动模型

流动性滑坡在流经曲面地形时会产生附加的离（向）心作用,而以往的研究并未充分考虑这种作用。本文以LS_RAPID模型为基础,补充了在曲面地形下滑体运动所受离（向）心力,修正LS_RAPID模型的控制方程,得到考虑曲面地形效应的流动性滑坡运动模型——LSD_T（Landslide Dynamic_Terrain）模型。运用该模型对一典型流动性滑坡——天水市大沟滑坡进行模拟,并与相同参数下LS_RAPID模型的模拟结果进行对比。结果表明:LS_RAPID模型中曲面地形对滑体运动的限制作用不明显,体现为弯道处滑体冲出沟道,不符合滑坡的实际运动情况;而LSD_T模型则能够较好的反映弯道离（向）心作用的影响,滑体在弯道处顺沟滑动,运动轨迹与实际堆积过程基本一致。