Relation between the variations in the global surface temperature,El Niño/La Niña phenomena,and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

We analyzed directed couplings between the variations in the global surface temperature and modes of the natural climatic variability: the El NiñoLa Niña (ENSO) quasi-periodical phenomena and the long-period Atlantic Mutidecadal Oscillation (AMO) based on the data for 1870–2014. According to the quantitative estimates based on the monthly and annual mean data, the initial data, and the 10-year mean remote data, the most pronounced impact of the ENSO on the global surface temperature and the AMO was found. A weaker bidirectional coupling between the global surface temperature and the AMO is also pronounced. The analysis using running windows revealed an alternating effect of the ENSO and AMO on the variations in the global surface temperature related to the AMO phases.     

Barents Sea hydrodynamics change during the El Niño event

On the basis of model calculations, mutually fitted fields were obtained for the key hydrophysical properties in the vicinity of the hydrological sections executed in the Barents Sea during 1997–1998. Integrated analysis of these data allowed us to evaluate the variability of crucial hydrodynamic conditions: the decrease of supply of relatively warm and saline North Atlantic waters with compensatory inflow of Arctic waters; the decrease of total heat content and increase of thermal convection; the weakening of water dynamics in the system of general cyclone circulation; and the abnormally cold winter in 1997–1998 with the increase in the ice covering of the Barents Sea. With a high confidence probability, it was found that considerable deviations from the mean weather conditions took place in response to the El Niño global disturbance of the same period, with the maximum southern oscillation index (SOI) in January–March 1998. The El Niño signal in the baric field of the Arctic basin, noted even in November–December 1997 as a crest of increased pressure, reached its maximum development in April–June 1998 in the form of a well-pronounced atmospheric anticyclone. Recognizing the natural correlation of this phenomenon and the maximum SOI value, one may state that the Barents Sea responds to an El Niño event in about three months. This circumstance should be used as an important parameter for climate forecasting.     

Anomalous Winters in Regions of Northern Eurasia in Different Phases of the El Niño Phenomena

Doklady Earth Sciences - Estimates of the probability of warm and cold winters in regions of Northern Eurasia are obtained from data for eight decades, depending on El Niño phenomena. The...     

About the variability in thunderstorm and rainfall activity over India and its association with El Niño and La Niña

Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country.     

Manifestations of motions of the Earth’s pole in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation rhythms

We analyze autocorrelations and power spectra of the time series of monthly mean data characterizing sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in the years 1920–2013 and show that the rhythms of El Niño–Southern Oscillation can be interpreted as the responses of the climate system to the external quasi-periodic forcing generated by the motions of the Earth’s pole. We conclude that the ENSO phenomenon has no prediction limits.

     

Adventures in Data Analysis: The TAO Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño

Traditional undergraduate education in earth sciences does not emphasize data acquisition, analysis, or assessment. However, arrival of the information age dictates that earth sciences graduates be imbued with fundamental skills to organize, evaluate and process large data sets. Fortunately, the proliferation of remotely sensed data and its availability via the Internet provides many opportunities for earth science educators to meet these needs. Exercises to introduce students to data analysis have been designed utilizing data from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The TAO Array is a grid of 69 buoys moored across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (8°N to 8°S and 95°W to 143°E) recording environmental data relevant to El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes. Data from the TAO Array is available in near-real-time (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html) or as archived ASCII files (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/data-delivery.html) providing daily (sometimes hourly) records of environmental parameters for each buoy in the grid. Student exercises in data analysis begin with downloading data from buoy locations, parsing the data into spreadsheets, and organizing data by environmental parameter into yearly and monthly data sets. Analyses of reconstructed data include calculations of long-term averages of environmental parameters, seasonal climatologies, monthly climatologies and calculation of long-term, seasonal, and monthly anomalies. Finally, monthly anomaly maps produced by students are loaded sequentially into GIF-animation software to create time-series images illustrating the progress and development of the 1997–1998 El Niño event.

     

Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and their possible link to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Analysis of 20-year time series of water levels in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has revealed that meteotsunamis are ubiquitous in this region. On average, 1–3 meteotsunamis with wave heights >0.5 m occur each year in this area. The probability of meteotsunami occurrence is highest during March–April and June–August. Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico can be triggered by winter and summer extra-tropical storms and by tropical cyclones. In northwestern Florida most of the events are triggered by winter storms, while in west and southwest Florida they appear both in winter and summer. Atmospheric pressure and wind anomalies (periods <6 h) associated with the passage of squalls originated the majority of the observed meteotsunami events. The most intense meteotsunamigenic periods took place during El Niño periods (1997–1998, 2009–2010 and 2015–2016). Meteotsunamis were also active in 2005, a year characterized by exceptionally intense tropical cyclone activity. Meteotsunami incidence varied yearly and at periods between 2 and 5 years. Results from cross-wavelet analysis suggested that El Niño and meteotsunami activity are correlated at annual and longer-period bands.     

Interannual variations in length of day with respect to El Niño - Southern Oscillation’s impact (1962–2015)

The objective of research done in this study is to examine the variability of the length of day (LOD) and to investigate its correlation with ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) episodes. For this purpose, the LOD time series (1962–2015), from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), is investigated using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique. The results show that the LOD time series is very complex and is composed of several components: the long-term trend explains 95.97% of the original series, the annual harmonic 1.76% and the semi-annual 1.35%. Considering sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) index over the Niño3, Niño4 and Niño3.4 regions, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the residuals signal, that represents only 0.92% of the initial LOD series, indicate a significant correlation with ENSO occurred during 1965–66, 1972–73, 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events and 1970–71, 1973–74, 1988–89, 2007–08, 2010–11 La Niña ones. This is a pertinent result that suggests that LOD variability is at least partly related to ENSO phenomena.     

Were the 2.1-Gyr fossil colonial organisms discovered in the Francevillian basin (Palaeoproterozoic,Gabon) buried by turbidites?

The Francevillian series (Gabon) in which the Earth's oldest large colonial organisms were recently discovered (El Albani et al., 2010) were deposited 2 Gyr ago. These series are usually interpreted as a fining-upward basin-fill sequence composed by five superimposed lithological terms noted FA to FE. New studies initiated by AREVA, allowed new data to be collected on the southwestern edge of the Francevillian basin, particularly on newly excavated outcrops. Facies interpretations show that the Poubara sandstones and associated shales and black shales (upper part of FB,FB2a), correspond to turbidites deposited on an upper slope rather than one a shelf, submitted to tidal currents or storm wave action. These new interpretations based on facies association, sedimentary geometries, and basin evolution show that the depositional environment could be a turbidite lobe set at a palaeobathymetry deeper than 200 m.     

El Ni?o as a consequence of the global oscillation in the dynamics of the earth’s climatic system

During study of the physical nature and potential precursor features of the El Ni?o phenomenon in the Pacific, it was found that a negative large-scale temperature anomaly on the Indian Ocean surface may be one of its significant precursors. This anomaly appears prior to the occurrence of El Ni?o and is accompanied by growth in atmospheric pressure. It gradually extends eastwards along the equator until the zone of planetary convection in the area of the Indonesian Region. The west wind that emerges on the eastern peripherals of the mentioned pressure anomaly leads to reversal of the Pacific segment of the Walker equatorial atmospheric circulation and to a subsequent change in the zonal thermal dipole polarity in the tropical zone of the Pacific (the latter means culmination of the El Ni?o phenomenon). In addition to the mentioned thermobaric anomaly in the Indian Ocean, other obvious signs of large-scale pressure anomalies have been found in the global atmospheric pressure field; these anomalies may be interpreted as manifestations of the intradecadal global oscillation in the dynamics of the modern climatic system. It is suggested that the whole known complex of events related to the El Ni?o phenomenon in the Pacific is a consequence and a regional link of the planetary structure of this global atmospheric phenomenon.     

Adventures in Data Analysis: The TAO Array and the 1997–1998 El Ni?o

Traditional undergraduate education in earth sciences does not emphasize data acquisition, analysis, or assessment. However, arrival of the information age dictates that earth sciences graduates be imbued with fundamental skills to organize, evaluate and process large data sets. Fortunately, the proliferation of remotely sensed data and its availability via the Internet provides many opportunities for earth science educators to meet these needs. Exercises to introduce students to data analysis have been designed utilizing data from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The TAO Array is a grid of 69 buoys moored across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (8°N to 8°S and 95°W to 143°E) recording environmental data relevant to El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes. Data from the TAO Array is available in near-real-time (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html) or as archived ASCII files (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/data-delivery.html) providing daily (sometimes hourly) records of environmental parameters for each buoy in the grid. Student exercises in data analysis begin with downloading data from buoy locations, parsing the data into spreadsheets, and organizing data by environmental parameter into yearly and monthly data sets. Analyses of reconstructed data include calculations of long-term averages of environmental parameters, seasonal climatologies, monthly climatologies and calculation of long-term, seasonal, and monthly anomalies. Finally, monthly anomaly maps produced by students are loaded sequentially into GIF-animation software to create time-series images illustrating the progress and development of the 1997–1998 El Niño event.     

Magnetostratigraphy and lithostratigraphy of the Laño vertebrate-site: Implications in the uppermost Cretaceous chronostratigraphy of the Basque-Cantabrian Region

Here we present the magnetostratigraphic dating of the Laño locality (Condado de Treviño, northern Iberian Peninsula), one of the most noteworthy Campanian-Maastrichtian vertebrate sites of Europe. A composite section of 75 m thickness (Laño quarry) constructed from multiple, overlapping profiles and a continuous one (Faido) have been sampled for magnetostratigraphy. Thermal demagnetization techniques were systematically applied to 161 standard specimens and allowed characterizing the characteristic remanent magnetism, mostly carried out by magnetite. The palaeomagnetic signal is slightly scattered due to variety of lithologies, but the primary character can be guaranteed, since the normal and reverse directions are pseudo antiparallel; 346, 28 (α₉₅: 11.9°, k: 5.3) and 175, −35 (α₉₅: 16.4°, k: 4.6). Reliable samples allowed us to build the local polarity sequence made of eight magnetozones that has been used to correlate to the Global Polarity Time Scale. The age of the lower part of the Laño-village succession is basal late Campanian (Hoplitoplacenticeras marroti ammonite zone) and fits with the long reversed zone that must correlate to Chron C33r. The pattern of magnetozones allows tracking the section up to C30r at the upper part of the profile. In this correlation, the Laño vertebrate site is regarded as latest Campanian in age as it falls within the C32n (≈72–73.5 Ma). The combined lithostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic analyses have yielded additional conclusions regarding the vertebrate assemblages that are representative of the Late Campanian of the Iberian Peninsula, in addition to highlight an older occurrence in Europe of some vertebrate groups such as salamandrid lissamphians and anguid lizards (or amphisbaenians).     

Are real-world shallow landslides reproducible by physically-based models? Four test cases in the Laternser valley,Vorarlberg (Austria)

In contrast to the complex nature of slope failures, physically-based slope stability models rely on simplified representations of landslide geometry. Depending on the modelling approach, landslide geometry is reduced to a slope-parallel layer of infinite length and width (e.g., the infinite slope stability model), a concatenation of rigid bodies (e.g., Janbu’s model), or a 3D representation of the slope failure (e.g., Hovland’s model). In this paper, the applicability of four slope stability models is tested at four shallow landslide sites where information on soil material and landslide geometry is available. Soil samples were collected in the field for conducting respective laboratory tests. Landslide geometry was extracted from pre- and post-event digital terrain models derived from airborne laser scanning. Results for fully saturated conditions suggest that a more complex representation of landslide geometry leads to increasingly stable conditions as predicted by the respective models. Using the maximum landslide depth and the median slope angle of the sliding surfaces, the infinite slope stability model correctly predicts slope failures for all test sites. Applying a 2D model for the slope failures, only two test sites are predicted to fail while the two other remain stable. Based on 3D models, none of the slope failures are predicted correctly. The differing results may be explained by the stabilizing effects of cohesion in shallower parts of the landslides. These parts are better represented in models which include a more detailed landslide geometry. Hence, comparing the results of the applied models, the infinite slope stability model generally yields a lower factor of safety due to the overestimation of landslide depth and volume. This simple approach is considered feasible for computing a regional overview of slope stability. For the local scale, more detailed studies including comprehensive material sampling and testing as well as regolith depth measurements are necessary.     

Temperature Control on Soluble Reactive Phosphorus in the Lower Mississippi River?

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) has recently been shown to be one of the limiting nutrients for the growth of phytoplankton in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We show here that during the past decade, SRP concentrations in the lower reaches of North America's largest river, the Mississippi River, were highest in summer and lowest in winter and positively correlated with water temperature. Upstream data showed this coupling to increase in a downstream trend in the Mississippi main stem. Water quality data analysis and phosphorus mass balances were conducted to examine the controls of this relationship. The results showed that the positive SRP–temperature correlation in the Mississippi River system was largely a result of gradual dilution of SRP-enriched upper Mississippi River waters, which contributed most to the Mississippi River during summer, by SRP-depleted waters from the Ohio and other tributaries. Particle buffering and organic matter mineralization might play a role in the observed SRP–temperature relationship, but their importance relative to tributary effects is not quantified. Future work on the seasonal dynamics of SRP in large river systems needs to consider the effects of both tributary dilution and in situ processes.     

Fecal Sterols in Estuarine Sediments as Markers of Sewage Contamination in the Cubat?o Area, S?o Paulo, Brazil

Sterol biomarkers serve as an alternative method for detecting sewage pollution. Sterols were extracted from samples of surface sediment collected in Cubat?o (the Vila dos Pescadores and Vila Esperan?a communities) and quantified using GC–MS after Soxhlet extraction, cleanup, and derivatization. Fecal contamination was evaluated based on the concentration of coprostanol and the ratio of the selected sterols. The most abundant sterol was cholestanol, followed by coprostanol. The concentrations of coprostanol in surface sediments ranged from a minimum of 4.21?μg?g^?1 dry sediment (Vila dos Pescadores station) to a maximum of 8.32?μg?g^?1 dry sediment (Vila Esperan?a station). A coprostanol concentration of about 10?μg?g^?1 was found, indicating areas of high sewage contamination. Coprostanol levels at sewage stations were higher than in other Brazilian coastal areas, which may be attributed to the fraction of the population without sanitation services.     

Holocene environmental changes and human impact in the northern Swiss Jura as reflected by data from the Delémont valley

The construction of the A16-Transjurane motorway revealed evidence of Holocene sediment sequences in the Delémont valley (Canton of Jura, Switzerland). Certain processes begin during the Younger Dryas. Pine forests dominate this cold period, which was unfavourable for pedogenesis; they remain throughout the first half of the Holocene. The meandering river system then becomes stable for more than four millennia. The first signs of human impact on the vegetal cover begin to appear around 3,500 cal BC (Middle Neolithic). An increase in hydric activity occurs between 3,600 and 2,500 cal BC. However, the earliest evidence of the cultivation of cereals dates only to about 2,000 cal BC (Early Bronze Age). Extensive forest clearing and the emergence of cultivated plants occur after 1,400 cal BC. On the cleared slopes the soil erodes and at their foot colluvium deposits accumulate. The densification of the settlement from the Late Bronze Age (1,350–800 cal BC) until the beginning of the Iron Age (800–650 cal BC) contributes to alluvial destabilization. A palaeosol has been identified in all of the Holocene deposits in the valley. The deforestation intensifies between 400 and 100 cal BC while hydric activity decreases. The first centuries of our era record very limited pedo-sedimentary phenomena. However, human presence becomes less marked after 350 cal AD. The slopes are stabilized and the soil develops. From 550 cal AD, an important increase in hydric activity takes place, a probable consequence of a wet fluctuation in the climate. Contemporary forest clearing causes deep gullies. After 750 cal AD, drier conditions set in. This period of stability, marked by occasional rises in the water level, continues until 1,250–1,300 cal AD (Late Middle Ages). Then superficial flows resume and entrenchment of the main waterways occurs, combined consequences of the Little Ice Age and the upsurge in human activity.