Assessment of landslide susceptibility on the natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong

 Steep terrain and the high frequency of tropical rainstorms make landslide occurrence on natural terrain a common phenomenon in Hong Kong. For example, more than 800 slope failures were triggered by a rainstorm in November 1993 on Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Maps of recent landslides interpreted from aerial photographs, in combination with a geographical information system, were used to evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides, with particular reference to such physical parameters as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, vegetation cover, and proximity to drainage line, all of which are considered to be influential in the occurrence of landslides. A stepwise logistic regression model was obtained between landslide susceptibility and the above mentioned physical parameters. The study area has been classified into five classes of relative landslide susceptibility, namely, very low, low, moderate, high, and very high, based on this methodology. Received: 17 December 1999 · Accepted: 21 March 2000     

Analysis of rainstorm-induced slide-debris flows on natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong

Lantau Island, the largest outlying island of the territory of Hong Kong, experienced a severe rainstorm on 4–5 November 1993, which induced >800 slope failures on natural terrain there. Detailed field investigations were carried out to study the failure modes, in relation with various influencing factors. It was found that the occurrence of slide-debris flows has a close relationship with bedrock geology, slope gradient, vegetation cover and micro landform. The failure modes of slide-debris flows may be classified into translational slides and rotational slides, and the former are predominant. Analysis of the hydrological response of colluvial slopes during the rainstorm indicated that the majority of the failures were caused by the development of a perched water table in the thin surface layer of colluvium of volcanic origin due to infiltration during the heavy rain. Undisturbed soil samples from south Lantau have been subjected to anisotropically consolidated undrained compression tests at comparatively low stress levels. Constant deviatoric stress path tests (CQD) simulating the stress path in the field at in situ stress levels have been performed to investigate soil behavior. The CQD test results indicate that the material of slopes at undisturbed state is brought to dilation because of the increase in pore water pressure caused by infiltration of rain water. For a translational slide, the displacement, resulting from dilation, may destroy cohesion along the failure surface and locally within the interior of the slide. The surplus water during the intense rainstorm was able to equilibrate the reduction in pore pressure caused by dilation, and the dilation and displacement may be further increased. The strain-softening after significant strains triggered debris flow mobilization. However, for a rotational slide, the increase in pore water pressure caused by surplus water infiltration during the intense rainstorm could not equilibrate the reduction in pore pressure caused by dilation, much or even all of the sliding block could not mobilize into a debris flow.     

A fluidized landslide on a natural slope by artificial rainfall

An experiment to induce a fluidized landslide by artificial rainfall was conducted on a natural slope at Mt. Kaba-san in the village of Yamato, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan. The experimental slope was 30 m long, 5 m wide, and the average slope gradient was 33°. A landslide initiated 24,627.5 s (410 m/27.5 s) after the start of sprinkling at a rainfall intensity of 78 mm/h. The landslide mass was 14 m long and 1.2 m deep (at maximum). It first slid, then fluidized, and changed into a debris flow. The travel distance was up to 50 m in 17s. The apparent friction angle of the fluidized landslide was 16.7°. Formation of the sliding surface was detected by soil-strain probes. Motion of the surface of the failed landslide mass was determined by stereo photogrammetry.     

江西省滑坡与降雨的关系研究

对江西全省1973 年~2002 年间1 158个降雨型滑坡,从考虑滑坡所处地层岩性条件和坡向因素的角度,分析了江西省降雨型滑坡发生的概率与降雨的关系。从坡向因素角度分析,江西省有64 %的滑坡发生于阳坡,但降雨对于不同坡向的滑坡影响近乎相同,只是阴坡所需激发雨量和有效临界雨量较阳坡稍大3 %。6 d累计降雨量、14 d有效降雨量(有效降雨系数为0.82)、3 d累计降雨量和9 d累计降雨量分别是变质岩、岩浆岩、碳酸岩和碎屑岩类地层中发育的滑坡所对应的最相关的降雨因子。各岩类地层中发育的滑坡有80 %发生于降雨当日;岩浆岩、变质岩和碎屑岩类滑坡约12 %～14 %滞后于降雨发生,碳酸岩类滑坡有22 %滞后于降雨发生。滞后时间多为1～3 d,其中碳酸岩类滑坡滞后时间相对较短。这与降雨对不同滑体物质成分的渗透性能、岩土体强度弱化程度和速度等有关。     

基于无人机的滑坡地形快速重建与稳定性分析

对滑坡进行快速准确的定量化调查评价可以为滑坡应急处置提供科学依据。无人机航摄系统以其机动灵活、响应迅速等特点,日益成为地质灾害调查的可靠手段。以册亨平庆组滑坡为例,将无人机摄影测量技术应用于滑坡的调查中,总结出一套基于轻型无人机航摄技术的边坡快速调查与定量评价方法:首先通过多种软件建立高精度三维地质模型,使用有限差分软件进行数值模拟;然后对滑坡变形机制进行分析,并对滑坡稳定性进行评价。研究结果表明:（1）通过Global mapper、Pix4Dmapper、Rhinoceros等软件对无人机采集数据进行处理并建立三维计算模型,具有简便、快捷、可靠的特点;（2）以无人机航摄为核心的滑坡调查评价,能将传统地质的定性分析和数值模拟的定量分析有效结合,为后续应急处置提供有力的依据及数据支撑;（3）册亨平庆组滑坡是在降雨条件下由坡体自重应力作用引发的蠕滑-拉裂式滑坡,调查时滑坡已启动,地面裂缝有加速扩展的趋势。     

Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model

Seasonal climate forecasts are one of the most promising tools for providing early warnings for natural hazards such as floods and droughts. Using two case studies, this paper documents the skill of a regional climate model in the seasonal forecasting of below normal rainfall in southern China during the rainy seasons of July–August–September 2003 and April–May–June 2004. The regional model is based on the Regional Spectral Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States. It is the first time that the model has been applied to a region dominated by the East Asian Monsoon. The article shows that the regional climate model, when being forced by reasonably good forecasts from a global model, can generate useful seasonal rainfall forecasts for the region, where it is dominated by the East Asia monsoon. The spatial details of the dry conditions obtained from the regional climate model forecast are also found to be comparable with the observed distribution.     

Comparing data-driven landslide susceptibility models based on participatory landslide inventory mapping in Purwosari area,Yogyakarta, Java

There are different approaches and techniques for landslide susceptibility mapping. However, no agreement has been reached in both the procedure and the use of specific controlling factors employed in the landslide susceptibility mapping. Each model has its own assumption, and the result may differ from place to place. Different landslide controlling factors and the completeness of landslide inventory may also affect the different result. Incomplete landslide inventory may produce significance error in the interpretation of the relationship between landslide and controlling factor. Comparing landslide susceptibility models using complete inventory is essential in order to identify the most realistic landslide susceptibility approach applied typically in the tropical region Indonesia. Purwosari area, Java, which has total 182 landslides occurred from 1979 to 2011, was selected as study area to evaluate three data-driven landslide susceptibility models, i.e., weight of evidence, logistic regression, and artificial neural network. Landslide in the study area is usually affected by rainfall and anthropogenic activities. The landslide typology consists of shallow translational and rotational slide. The elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, distance to river, land use, and distance to road were selected as landslide controlling factors for the analysis. Considering the accuracy and the precision evaluations, the weight of evidence represents considerably the most realistic prediction capacities (79%) when comparing with the logistic regression (72%) and artificial neural network (71%). The linear model shows more powerful result than the nonlinear models because it fits to the area where complete landslide inventory is available, the landscape is not varied, and the occurence of landslide is evenly distributed to the class of controlling factor.     

Process of building collapse caused by the Po Shan Road landslide in Hong Kong on 18 June 1972

Landslides - Urban areas in Hong Kong are often developed on hillside due to the lack of land resources. The densely distributed buildings located on the hillslope are thus threatened by landslide...     

降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨

详细研究了深圳市降雨与滑坡的历史资料,对区域性滑坡与降雨量进行偏相关分析,与降雨强度进行相关分析以及与降雨时间进行了系统地统计分析。研究结果表明,（1）滑坡的活动1～4日的降雨量及一次降雨过程的降雨量偏相关系数较大,表明一次性降雨量达到或超过某一数值时区域性滑坡就可以出现;（2）暴雨尤其是大暴雨及特大暴雨与滑坡的关系非常密切,相关系数达0.8以上,大暴雨或特大暴雨具有直接触发滑坡的作用;（3）滑坡活动时间与季节性降雨相对应,季节雨量越多,滑坡亦越多;另外滑坡活动时间与暴雨、大暴雨相吻合或略滞后,滞后时间一般不超过4 d,暴雨的当天及次日发生滑坡的可能性最大。在此基础上,探讨了区域性滑坡发生的临界降雨量和降雨强度阀值。最后将滑坡灾害的地质模型与降雨模型耦合建立了滑坡灾害的空间预警预报区划指标和等级系统,为区域滑坡灾害发生的时间与空间预报预警提供了科学依据。     

Geochemical characteristics of the slip zones of a landslide in granitic saprolite,Hong Kong: implications for their development and microenvironments

Geochemical investigations of the slip zones of a landslide in granitic saprolite revealed that they have signatures distinct from their host materials. These distinctions include stronger Si depletion, higher Al enrichment, greater LOI, significant fixations of Mn, Ba and Ce, stronger negative Eu anomalies, and greater accumulations of other rare earth elements (REE). Altogether, these geochemical characteristics indicate that: (a) the slip zones have greater abundance of clays, consistent with field and microscopic observations; (b) concentration of clay size particles within the slip zones may have been from downward leaching and deposition, and lateral transportation of Al-Si solutions and colloids through pores and fractures within the saprolite; and (c) there were prevailing oxidation and poor drainage, and occasional reduction conditions within the slip zones. It was concluded that geochemical analyses could be effective in gathering clues for understanding the development and nature of slip zones in landslide investigations.     

Exploiting historical rainfall and landslide data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds

Critical rainfall thresholds for landslides are powerful tools for preventing landslide hazard. The thresholds are commonly estimated empirically starting from rainfall events that triggered landslides in the past. The creation of the appropriate rainfall–landslide database is one of the main efforts in this approach. In fact, an accurate agreement between the landslide and rainfall information, in terms of location and timing, is essential in order to correctly estimate the rainfall–landslide relationships. A further issue is taking into account the average moisture conditions prior the triggering event, which reasonably may be crucial in determining the sufficient amount of precipitation. In this context, the aim of this paper is exploiting historical landslide and rainfall data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy. The hourly rainfall events that caused landslides occurred in the twentieth century were specifically identified and reconstructed. A procedure was proposed to automatically convert rain guages charts recorded on paper tape into digital format and then to provide the cumulative rainfall hyetograph in digital format. This procedure is based on a segmentation followed by signal recognition techniques which allow to digitalize and to recognize the hyetograph automatically. The role of rainfall prior to the landslide events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall occurred 5, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. Finally, cumulated rainfall duration thresholds for different exceedance probability levels were determined. The obtained thresholds resulted in agreement with the regional curves proposed by other authors for the same area; antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides.     

四川巴中市滑坡灾害与降雨雨型关系探讨

巴中市地处四川盆地和秦岭造山带的过渡地带,地质构造以宽缓的隔档式褶皱为主,地层岩性主要为砂泥岩互层的红层岩体,红层滑坡灾害多为强降雨诱发。开展滑坡灾害与降雨雨型关系的研究,可为该地区滑坡灾害临界降雨阈值和预警服务提供参考。文章通过统计巴中市强降雨事件与滑坡发生的对应关系,初步揭示了滑坡灾害触发的降雨特征,并在分析降雨强度的基础上,结合降雨历时和降雨过程,对巴中市2007—2016年之间23场月降雨量大于200 mm的降雨事件进行了细分,共划分为单峰型、前峰型、后峰型、递增型、递减型、均匀型6类降雨雨型。对各类降雨雨型下滑坡发生数量进行统计,递增型和单峰型降雨事件下滑坡发生的比例分别为46.90%和25.02%。经稳定性计算分析,递增型和单峰型两类雨型条件下滑坡稳定性有明显降低,降雨过程对滑坡发生具有显著影响。结果表明：强降雨期间应加强降雨雨型的分析,为适时发布区域滑坡灾害预警信息、做好提前避让提供技术支撑。     

Dynamic features and effects of rainfall on landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, China: using the Xintan landslide and the large Huangya landslide as the examples

The study area is located in Three Gorges Reservoir region, China. Over 200 landslides have been monitored over a number of years with their behavior being compared to the effective rainfall database for the study area. Analysis of the available data indicates that the occurrences of landslides in this region are controlled by rainfall, whose intensity and rainfall processes are the most important dynamic factors in determining the stability of slopes. Therefore, the relationship between rainfall and the movement of typical landslides has been specifically analyzed for the Xintan landslides and the large Huangya landslide by using the loading/unloading response ratio parameter of rainfall. The result of this study indicates that the mutation of the loading/unloading response ratio of rainfall of the Xintan landslide and the large Huangya landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, China occurred just before their destabilization, which shows that the loading/unloading response ratio of rainfall and its changing feature can be taken as a precursor for the landslides induced by rainfall.     

Hydrological regimes in different slope environments and implications on rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides

Natural Hazards - Assessing hazard of rainfall-induced shallow landslides represents a challenge for the risk management of urbanized areas for which the setting up of early warning systems, based...     

基于大变形分析的三峡库区某滑坡防治设计研究

三峡库区某岩质滑坡的变形失稳涉及到地质、环境、人类工程活动等多种因素。针对该滑坡的变形破坏规律和诱发机制,拟采用削坡、抗滑桩、排水系统等加固措施,以确保滑坡整体和局部稳定,其中加固方案的长期有效性将是整个治理工程的关键。通过对大变形数值方法以及滑坡治理工程措施特点的分析,认为在研究滑坡治理工程大变形问题时采用非线性大变形数值方法更加合理,加固方案的优化设计采用了三维快速拉格朗日分析（FLAC3D）法,通过对滑坡区位移场以及破坏区的变化规律进行分析,将各项加固措施及其组合工况的治理效果进行对比优选,最后确定出以抗滑桩和削坡为主、排水为辅的最优加固方案。该方案的治理效果已被实践资料所证实,其中的部分方法和结论对三峡库区滑坡地质灾害的防治具有指导意义。     

Spatial and temporal analysis of a fatal landslide inventory in China from 1950 to 2016

Landslides result in severe casualties every year in China. However, there are few historical fatal landslide catalogs available to quantitatively assess the impact as well as the temporal and spatial patterns of landslides. The Fatal Landslide Event Inventory of China (FLEIC), which spans from 1950 to 2016, was compiled based on multiple data sources. The inventory contains 1911 non-seismically triggered landslides, which resulted in a total of 28,139 deaths in China during 1950–2016. The occurrence frequency of fatal landslides presented significantly different trends for different grades of events. Very large fatal landslide events (fatalities >?=?30) were on the rise during 1950–1999 and declined from 2000 to 2016. The decreasing trend after 2000 can be attributed to the increase in landslide mitigation investments. The small and medium-sized fatal landslide events (fatalities <?10) showed a significant increasing trend between 1950 and 2016, especially during the period of 2000–2016. This significant increasing trend is partly due to the improvement of the availability of landslide data online and may also be related to other factors including an increase in extreme precipitation events, the effects of land urbanization, and so on. This suggested that the inherent incompleteness of the landslide time series should be considered when analyzing. The fatal landslides mainly occurred between April and September (82.15%), which is consistent with the monthly precipitation variation in China. Spatially, most of the fatal landslides occurred in 14 provinces: five southwestern provinces (Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Chongqing), five southeastern provinces (Hunan, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang), Shaanxi and Shanxi, Hubei and Gansu. These 14 provinces account for 86% of the total fatal landslides and their associated fatalities. The spatial association between the fatal landslide density and possible influencing factors was assessed based on a geographical detector method. The results showed that the interacting factors between the precipitation and topography, soil, lithology, vegetation and population density are more closely related to the spatial distribution of fatal landslides than each individual factor.     

Understanding the triggering mechanism and possible kinematic evolution of a reactivated landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir

More than 5000 landslides or potential landslides have been induced in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region since the impoundment in 2003, which have caused great damage and remain a huge threat to the dam and people living in the reservoir area. Understanding the deformation characteristics and failure mechanism of the landslides can be helpful in stability evaluation and landslide prediction. The primary aim of this study is to research the characteristics of the landslide motion and its relationships with environmental triggers, taking the Quchi landslide, a large, slow-moving, reactivated landslide in the TGR region, as an example. The instability clearly showed visible signs of movements since 2002, and after that, the slope has been experiencing persistent deformation. By combining 4 years of meteorological, hydrological data with displacement measurements from open fractures, deep boreholes, and surface points, as well as in situ observations, this paper reports the geological and geotechnical investigations performed to define the movement. The deformation is believed to be governed by reservoir water levels, while the precipitation has a minor effect. Seasonally, the slope movement has a very distinctive pattern with large deformation starting abruptly right after reservoir drawdown in June and lasting into late summer (September). Then there is a rapid transition to constant deformation (almost no displacement) as the reservoir level rises. The slope displacements appear to gradually increase every year, which suggests very high possibility of the large and overall failure of the slide. Both monitoring results and geomorphological observations have highlighted that the two active slide masses Q1 and Q2 would probably collapse in different kinematic evolution modes, i.e., the multistage failure and whole sliding motion.     

The influence of land use/land cover variability and rainfall intensity in triggering landslides: a back-analysis study via physically based models

Natural Hazards - The objective of this study was to use physically based models to carry out a back-analysis of the set of factors that may have influenced slope instability and the consequent...     

Centrifugal model test on a riverine landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir induced by rainfall and water level fluctuation

Frequent soil landslide events are recorded in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, making it necessary to investigate the failure mode of such riverside landslides. Geotechnical centrifugal test is considered to be the most realistic laboratory model, which can reconstruct the required geo-stress. In this study, the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorgers Reservoir area is selected for a scaled centrifugal model experiment, and a water pump system is employed to retain the rainfall condition. Using the techniques of digital photography and pore water pressure transducers, water level fluctuation is controlled, and multi-physical data are thus obtained, including the pore water pressure, earth pressure, surface displacement and deep displacement. The analysis results indicate that: Three stages were set in the test (waterflooding stage, rainfall stage and drainage stage). Seven transverse cracks with wide of 1–5 mm appeared during the model test, of which 3 cracks at the toe landslide were caused by reservoir water fluctuation, and the cracks at the middle and rear part were caused by rainfall. During rainfall process, the maximum displacement of landslide model reaches 3 cm. And the maximum deformation of the model exceeds 12 cm at the drainage stage. The failure process of the slope model can be divided into four stages: microcracks appearance and propagation stage, thrust-type failure stage, retrogressive failure stage, and holistic failure stage. When the thrust-type zone caused by rainfall was connected or even overlapped with the retrogressive failure zone caused by the drainage, the landslide would start, which displayed a typical composite failure pattern. The failure mode and deformation mechanism under the coupling actions of water level fluctuation and rainfall are revealed in the model test, which could appropriately guide for the analysis and evaluation of riverside landslides.     

基于流固耦合的强震大型滑坡水力激发效应研究

2008年汶川Ms8.0级强震触发了体积近12×108 m3的大光包滑坡。该滑坡发生于古生代碳酸盐岩地层,滑带地质背景为斜坡内部深埋400 m、最大厚度达5 m的先期层间构造错动带。最新调查表明,该错动带是斜坡内部地下水通道,错动带岩体处于饱和状态。为揭示强震过程与地下水相关的大光包滑坡启动机制,提出了一种具有软弱层带的硬质碳酸盐岩边坡简化模型,将层间构造错动带概化为碳酸盐岩硬层内部软弱层带,采用FLAC3D程序中的流固耦合算法模拟了模型的响应特性。研究结果表明:强震过程中软弱层带上下碳酸盐岩硬层的变形响应时间、波型、大小出现明显差异,上硬层相对于下硬层产生了张离、压缩和剪切3种非协调变形模式,由此对软弱层带产生了振动冲压-张拉和振动剪切动力学行为,饱水软弱层带形成了具有瞬间放大和累积增涨特征的超孔隙水压力。这里将上下硬层差异性变形称为非协调变形,认为非协调变形是软弱层带应力放大成因,推测软弱层带应力瞬间放大以及放大应力长持时作用下的岩体致损是超孔隙水压力激发和累积的成因;强震过程软弱层带超孔隙水压力导致其内有效应力快速降低,使得斜坡前部锁固段应力快速集中,而后被突然剪断,滑坡骤然启动,揭示了强震过程中超孔隙水压力是大光包滑坡启动的主要原因。