地球发烧 人类不安

2006年，人人都说成都的冬天一点也不冷，是个暖冬。2007年的春节，成都市民是在阳光明媚中度过的。二月份气温一路飚升，连续多日最高气温超过20℃，腊梅谢了，红梅开了，桃红了，柳绿了，春天就这么一跃提前来到了人们的身边。在经历了短暂的寒潮后，三月的天空又迎来了太阳。     

地球“发烧”失与得

地球“发烧”失与得董凤霞，毛洪遵地球“发烧”、气候变暖，这几乎是当前国内外气象学家们的一致意见了。英国气象专家用１亿６千万个数据证明：近百年全球气温已升高了０．５℃。进人８０年代以来，增暖过程加快，中、高纬度地区增温大于平均值，冬季增温高于其它季。他...     

人类只有一个地球

1990年11月6～7日,137个国家的代表团聚集在日内瓦,专门讨论气候和气候变化。出席会议的部长有59人,副部长16人,气象局局长、副局长72人;到会讲话的有总统、同王、首相、总理等多人。这么多国家和政府首脑以及内阁部长们聚集一堂,大谈特谈气候问题,这在历史上还是头一次。这个会议上通过的《部长宣言》号召各国政府立即采取措施,保护全球气候。地球为什么能够养育人类乃至整个生物界?除了地球本身的体积、地球与太阳的距离等合适之外,一个成分合适、厚度恰当的地球大气圈是十分重要的。人们已经探测清楚、在太阳系里除地球外,其它星球上是没有生     

地球“感昌”人“发烧”

人类赖以生存的地球，是太阳系中最美丽的一颗行星，她平静而和谐，载着几十亿儿女在宇宙海洋中宁静地行驶。可是近几年来，地球患了“重感冒”：时寒时暖，忽风忽雨，有时发低烧，有时又高烧不退。地球感冒了，这可不是件小事情。因为地球的灾难就是全人类的灾难。可以说地球患感冒，人类首当其害：1991年地球打了个“喷嚏”，使16万人染病身亡，是过去15年中死亡人数最多的一年；1992～1995年，地球连续发烧感冒，又分别使拉美1800万人染上“查格式病”，非洲46万人染上霍乱、g000万人受疟疾折磨、88O万人染上结核病，先后使上百万人离开…     

人类对地球植物的需求

<正>从我们吃的食物到使用的家具,及我们做饭的燃料,人类需要的一切都依赖于植物。现如今,在我们所面临的众多社会生态学中不确定事件之一就是:假设以现在的人口增长趋势和消费模式,将来地球上的植物是否能够维持我们的生活。     

简论人类圈(Anthroposphere)在地球系统中的作用

工业革命后, 人类活动影响地球环境达到了空前的程度。近年提出的人类世 (anthropocene) 概念就是为表征地球系统演变进入了这一特殊的新纪元。然而, 人类活动并非单向地影响自然, 它在改变自然环境的同时, 环境变化也影响着人类行为, 迫使人类去适应自然变化, 改变生存方式。为更深入地表征人类活动与地球环境相互作用的这种特征, 作者讨论了在地球系统模式里引入“人类圈 (anthroposphere)” 的必要性以及由此带来的新的科学挑战, 并提出了构建包含人类圈的地球系统模式的一些思路。     

太阳“发烧” 辽宁大旱

蛇年,辽宁遭受旱灾时间之长,面积之大,可谓建国以来所罕见。是什么原因造成辽宁大旱呢?笔者认为这与太阳黑子连续爆发密切相关。     

地球发生了危机!——人类正面临着一场严峻的挑战

人口剧增和经济发展的压力,正在超过地球自然系统的承受能力,使大气、水源受到污染,气候出现异常,资源枯竭,许多物种濒临灭绝,许多地区食品和燃料生产下降,地球上生命支持系统正在继续遭到破坏。由排放硫氧化物、氮氧化物而形成的酸雨正在超越国境危害更多的国家;含氯氟烃等化学物质的大量排放有可能使大气臭氧层耗竭,最近许多科学家已在南北极上空发现     

外星人地球访友地球宇宙觅客

外星人地球访友地球宇宙觅客浩翰无际的宇宙是个神奇的物质世界。目前人类已探测到距地球１００亿光年的星系，就是说它们到达地球的星光，还是百亿年前发出来的．那时地球还没有诞生。它们的资格何其老矣！在已发现的２０００亿个星系中约有恒星２００万亿亿颗，而太阳仅...     

河流与人类

河流与人类自古以来，人类就千方百计利用河流，依赖河流而生存。古代文明的发祥地都位于黄河和尼罗河这样的大河之畔。对于人类来说，河流既是生活必须的饮水之源，又是物资运输的重要交通线。此外，雨季从上游运来肥沃的土壤促进了农业的发展。可以说，人类是在充分地接...     

Climate anxiety: Conceptual considerations,and connections with climate hope and action

Climate anxiety is a phenomenon which raises growing attention. Based on a national survey of climate-related feelings and behaviors (N = 2070) in Finland, we analyzed and discussed the concept of climate anxiety and its relationship with hope and action. We found that all our measures for climate anxiety (including worry and some stronger manifestations of anxiety) and hope (including efficacy beliefs) correlated positively with each other and climate action. Furthermore, climate anxiety and hope explained unique parts of variance in self-reported climate action. We propose that, in line with the Extended Parallel Process model (EPPM) that was used as a framework, the interplay of emotions needs to be considered when studying and explaining their effect on climate action. In conclusion, the results provide support for seeing climate anxiety and hope as intertwined and adaptive feelings, which could be needed to motivate humankind in finding solutions to climate change.     

The earth is our home: systemic metaphors to redefine our relationship with nature

Climate change is one of the most compelling challenges for science communication today. Societal reforms are necessary to reduce the risks posed by a changing climate, yet many people fail to recognize climate change as a serious issue. Unfortunately, the accumulation of scientific data, in itself, has failed to compel the general public on the urgent need for pro-environmental policy action. We argue that certain metaphors for the human-environment relationship can lead people to adopt a more nuanced and responsible conception of their place in the natural world. In two studies, we tested properties of multiple metaphors with the general public (study 1) and experts on climate change (study 2). The metaphor “the earth is our home” resonated with climate experts as well as diverse subpopulations of the general public, including conservatives and climate-change deniers.     

The UVic earth system climate model: Model description,climatology, and applications to past,present and future climates

Abstract

A new earth system climate model of intermediate complexity has been developed and its climatology compared to observations. The UVic Earth System Climate Model consists of a three‐dimensional ocean general circulation model coupled to a thermodynamic/dynamic sea‐ice model, an energy‐moisture balance atmospheric model with dynamical feedbacks, and a thermomechanical land‐ice model. In order to keep the model computationally efficient a reduced complexity atmosphere model is used. Atmospheric heat and freshwater transports are parametrized through Fickian diffusion, and precipitation is assumed to occur when the relative humidity is greater than 85%. Moisture transport can also be accomplished through advection if desired. Precipitation over land is assumed to return instantaneously to the ocean via one of 33 observed river drainage basins. Ice and snow albedo feedbacks are included in the coupled model by locally increasing the prescribed latitudinal profile of the planetary albedo. The atmospheric model includes a parametrization of water vapour/planetary longwave feedbacks, although the radiative forcing associated with changes in atmospheric CO₂ is prescribed as a modification of the planetary longwave radiative flux. A specified lapse rate is used to reduce the surface temperature over land where there is topography. The model uses prescribed present‐day winds in its climatology, although a dynamical wind feedback is included which exploits a latitudinally‐varying empirical relationship between atmospheric surface temperature and density. The ocean component of the coupled model is based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model 2.2, with a global resolution of 3.6° (zonal) by 1.8° (meridional) and 19 vertical levels, and includes an option for brine‐rejection parametrization. The sea‐ice component incorporates an elastic‐viscous‐plastic rheology to represent sea‐ice dynamics and various options for the representation of sea‐ice thermodynamics and thickness distribution. The systematic comparison of the coupled model with observations reveals good agreement, especially when moisture transport is accomplished through advection.

Global warming simulations conducted using the model to explore the role of moisture advection reveal a climate sensitivity of 3.0°C for a doubling of CO₂, in line with other more comprehensive coupled models. Moisture advection, together with the wind feedback, leads to a transient simulation in which the meridional overturning in the North Atlantic initially weakens, but is eventually re‐established to its initial strength once the radiative forcing is held fixed, as found in many coupled atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs). This is in contrast to experiments in which moisture transport is accomplished through diffusion whereby the overturning is reestablished to a strength that is greater than its initial condition.

When applied to the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the model obtains tropical cooling (30°N‐30°S), relative to the present, of about 2.1°C over the ocean and 3.6°C over the land. These are generally cooler than CLIMAP estimates, but not as cool as some other reconstructions. This moderate cooling is consistent with alkenone reconstructions and a low to medium climate sensitivity to perturbations in radiative forcing. An amplification of the cooling occurs in the North Atlantic due to the weakening of North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Concurrent with this weakening is a shallowing of, and a more northward penetration of, Antarctic Bottom Water.

Climate models are usually evaluated by spinning them up under perpetual present‐day forcing and comparing the model results with present‐day observations. Implicit in this approach is the assumption that the present‐day observations are in equilibrium with the present‐day radiative forcing. The comparison of a long transient integration (starting at 6 KBP), forced by changing radiative forcing (solar, CO₂, orbital), with an equilibrium integration reveals substantial differences. Relative to the climatology from the present‐day equilibrium integration, the global mean surface air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are 0.74°C and 0.55°C colder, respectively. Deep ocean temperatures are substantially cooler and southern hemisphere sea‐ice cover is 22% greater, although the North Atlantic conveyor remains remarkably stable in all cases. The differences are due to the long timescale memory of the deep ocean to climatic conditions which prevailed throughout the late Holocene. It is also demonstrated that a global warming simulation that starts from an equilibrium present‐day climate (cold start) underestimates the global temperature increase at 2100 by 13% when compared to a transient simulation, under historical solar, CO₂ and orbital forcing, that is also extended out to 2100. This is larger (13% compared to 9.8%) than the difference from an analogous transient experiment which does not include historical changes in solar forcing. These results suggest that those groups that do not account for solar forcing changes over the twentieth century may slightly underestimate (～3% in our model) the projected warming by the year 2100.     

Recent climatic change in Australia: Implications for a CO2-warmed earth

A significant change in mean precipitation occurred over much of Australia between 1913–45 and 1946–78. This is described on a seasonal basis and related to possible changes in the atmospheric circulation. It now appears that during this time mean surface temperatures in the mid southern latitude zone increased by up to 1 °C. This temperature change could be at least partly due to an increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations from about 260 ppmv in the early nineteenth century. In any case the observed temperature increase is similar to the predicted future effects of a 50% increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Thus the climatic change which occurred earlier this century is at least a good analogy for the effects of a CO₂-induced global warming which is expected to occur over a similar time interval in the future. This allows the construction of more detailed and quantitative climate scenarios. The most noteworthy conclusion is that marked changes in the seasonally of precipitation should be anticipated, with seasonal changes in some areas being of the order of 50% or more for a doubling of CO₂ content. The results are in general consistent with earlier more qualitative scenarios for Australia.     

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

The nature of the short period fluctuations in solar irradiance received by the earth

An analysis of the periodicities found in the Nimbus-7 satellite measurements of solar irradiance (Solar Constant) indicates variations on three scales. Two of these variations are shown to be related to variations in solar activity as given by various indicators of solar photosphere disturbances. The high frequency periodicity is due to the solar rotation period. The second periodicity is based on the integral effect of the high frequency oscillation over an 11 year solar cycle. The third variation (secular trend) is discussed in regard to the high precision cavity data and the recent record of high altitude solar constant measurements.     

防雷工程中的电源避雷器与零地合一问题浅析

在信息系统综合防雷工程设计施工过程中,为解决电源各输电线路之间因电流不相等而产生的用户端零线对地的电位差,即零地电压对设备的危害,以及防止设备因供电断零线而损坏的情况,需要对零线重复接地,把零地电压控制在一定的范围之内（雷达机房要求〈2V）。通过分析一起按规范安装电源避雷器与零地处理引起的事故,提出防雷工程整改完善的建议,为同类工作提供参考依据。