Possible impact of interplanetary and interstellar dust fluxes on the Earth’s climate

This article considers the process of entry of cosmic substance into the Earth’s atmosphere and the further evolution of the formed extraterrestrial aerosol. It is shown that meteorite-derived aerosol generated in the atmosphere may affect the Earth’s climate in two ways: (a) particles of meteoric haze may serve as condensation nuclei in the troposphere and stratosphere; (b) charged meteor particles residing in the mesosphere may markedly change (by a few percent) the total atmospheric resistance and, thereby, affect the global current circuit. Changes in the global electric circuit, in turn, may influence cloud formation processes. The obtained results argue for the fact that the meteoric dust in the Earth’s atmosphere is potentially one of the important climate-forming agents. It is shown that the amount of interstellar dust in the Earth’s atmosphere is too small to have a considerable affect on atmospheric processes.     

The influence of serial correlation on the Mann–Whitney test for detecting a shift in median

The non-parametric Mann–Whitney (MW) statistical test for assessing the significance of a shift in median or mean requires a tested series to be serially independent. However, hydrological time series such as water quality, streamflow, and others may frequently display serial correlation. In such cases, the existence of serial correlation might alter the ability of the test to detect a shift in mean. This study investigates this issue by means of the Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results indicate that: (i) when there is no shift or a moderate shift in mean, the existence of positive serial correlation will increase the possibility to reject the null hypothesis of no shift while it might be true; and the existence of negative serial correlation will reduce the possibility to detect a shift; (ii) when a bigger shift occurs in a time series, for a series with smaller sample size, the influence of serial correlation on the test is similar to that in (i), but it is much less than that in (i); while for a series with larger sample size, the influence of serial correlation on the test is opposite to (i), i.e., positive serial correlation reduces the power of the test for detecting a shift while negative serial correlation slightly increases the power of the test for identifying a shift; and (iii) removal of serial correlation by pre-whitening can effectively remove the serial correlation and eliminate the influence of the serial correlation on the test.     

Modelling ocean wave climate with a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model and a log-transform of the data

Long-term trends in the ocean wave climate because of global warming are of major concern to many stakeholders within the maritime industries, and there is a need to take severe sea state conditions into account in design of marine structures and in marine operations. Various stochastic models of significant wave height are reported in the literature, but most are based on point measurements without exploiting the flexible framework of Bayesian hierarchical space–time models. This framework allows modelling of complex dependence structures in space and time and incorporation of physical features and prior knowledge, yet remains intuitive and easily interpreted. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model with a log-transform for significant wave height data for an area in the North Atlantic ocean. The different components of the model will be outlined, and the results from applying the model to data of different temporal resolutions will be discussed. Different model alternatives have been tried and long-term trends in the data have been identified for all model alternatives. Overall, these trends are in reasonable agreement and also agree fairly well with previous studies. The log-transform was included in order to account for observed heteroscedasticity in the data, and results are compared to previous results where a similar model was employed without a log-transform. Furthermore, a discussion of possible extensions to the model, e.g. incorporating regression terms with relevant meteorological data, will be presented.     

Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment,Vietnam

Abstract

The impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield is investigated in the Be River catchment, Vietnam, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate the hydrology and sediment yield in the catchment. From this, the responses of the hydrology and sediment to climate change and land-use changes were considered. The results indicate that deforestation had increased the annual flow (by 1.2%) and sediment load (by 11.3%), and that climate change had also significantly increased the annual streamflow (by 26.3%) and sediment load (by 31.7%). Under the impact of coupled climate and land-use changes, the annual streamflow and sediment load increased by 28.0% and 46.4%, respectively. In general, during the 1978–2000 period, climate change influenced the hydrological processes in the Be River catchment more strongly than the land-use change.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang

Citation Khoi, D.N. and Suetsugi, T., 2014. Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1095–1108.     

Current state of knowledge regarding the world’s wetlands and their future under global climate change: a synthesis

Wetlands cover at least 6 % of the Earth’s surface. They play a key role in hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, harbour a large part of the world’s biodiversity, and provide multiple services to humankind. However, pressure in the form of land reclamation, intense resource exploitation, changes in hydrology, and pollution threaten wetlands on all continents. Depending on the region, 30–90 % of the world’s wetlands have already been destroyed or strongly modified in many countries with no sign of abatement. Climate change scenarios predict additional stresses on wetlands, mainly because of changes in hydrology, temperature increases, and a rise in sea level. Yet, intact wetlands play a key role as buffers in the hydrological cycle and as sinks for organic carbon, counteracting the effects of the increase in atmospheric CO₂. Eight chapters comprising this volume of Aquatic Sciences analyze the current ecological situation and the use of the wetlands in major regions of the world in the context of global climate change. This final chapter provides a synthesis of the findings and recommendations for the sustainable use and protection of these important ecosystems.     

Spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover on the Chinese Loess Plateau (1981–2006): Impacts of climate changes and human activities

Spatiotemporal variations of Chinese Loess Plateau vegetation cover during 1981–2006 have been investigated using GIMMS and SPOT VGT NDVI data and the cause of vegetation cover changes has been analyzed, considering the climate changes and human activities. Vegetation cover changes on the Loess Plateau have experienced four stages as follows: (1) vegetation cover showed a continued increasing phase during 1981–1989; (2) vegetation cover changes came into a relative steady phase with small fluctuations during 1990–1998; (3) vegetation cover declined rapidly during 1999–2001; and (4) vegetation cover increased rapidly during 2002–2006. The vegetation cover changes of the Loess Plateau show a notable spatial difference. The vegetation cover has obviously increased in the Inner Mongolia and Ningxia plain along the Yellow River and the ecological rehabilitated region of Ordos Plateau, however the vegetation cover evidently decreased in the hilly and gully areas of Loess Plateau, Liupan Mountains region and the northern hillside of Qinling Mountains. The response of NDVI to climate changes varied with different vegetation types. NDVI of sandy land vegetation, grassland and cultivated land show a significant increasing trend, but forest shows a decreasing trend. The results obtained in this study show that the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover are the outcome of climate changes and human activities. Temperature is a control factor of the seasonal change of vegetation growth. The increased temperature makes soil drier and unfavors vegetation growth in summer, but it favors vegetation growth in spring and autumn because of a longer growing period. There is a significant correlation between vegetation cover and precipitation and thus, the change in precipitation is an important factor for vegetation variation. The improved agricultural production has resulted in an increase of NDVI in the farmland, and the implementation of large-scale vegetation construction has led to some beneficial effect in ecology. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40671019) and the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research of Chinese Academy of Sciences     

Comparison of the sector and conventional spherical harmonic analyses of the solar magnetic field on the photosphere,source surface,and in the Earth’s orbit on July 10–20, 2004

The results of a spherical harmonic analysis and a sector spherical harmonic analysis of the solar magnetic field on the photosphere, source surface, and in the Earth’s orbit on July 10–20, 2004, were compared. It was found that the field values according to a sector harmonic analysis are an order of magnitude as large as the same values according to a spherical harmonic analysis and differ in the configuration. A twocomponent magnetic field structure was revealed: short-range sources are better described by a sector spherical harmonic analysis; long-range sources are better described by a spherical harmonic analysis. This is caused by the different depths of the occurrence of sources below the photosphere.     

The information system of the French Peatland Observation Service: Service National d'Observation Tourbières – A valuable tool to assess the impact of global changes on the hydrology and biogeochemistry of temperate peatlands through long term monitoring

Mitigating and adapting to global changes requires a better understanding of the response of the Biosphere to these environmental variations. Human disturbances and their effects act in the long term (decades to centuries) and consequently, a similar time frame is needed to fully understand the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of a natural system. To this end, the ‘Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique’ (CNRS) promotes and certifies long-term monitoring tools called national observation services or ‘Service National d'Observation’ (SNO) in a large range of hydrological and biogeochemical systems (e.g., cryosphere, catchments, aquifers). The SNO investigating peatlands, the SNO ‘Tourbières’, was certified in 2011 ( https://www.sno-tourbieres.cnrs.fr/ ). Peatlands are mostly found in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and French peatlands are located in the southern part of this area. Thus, they are located in environmental conditions that will occur in northern peatlands in coming decades or centuries and can be considered as sentinels. The SNO Tourbières is composed of four peatlands: La Guette (lowland central France), Landemarais (lowland oceanic western France), Frasne (upland continental eastern France) and Bernadouze (upland southern France). Thirty target variables are monitored to study the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of the sites. They are grouped into four datasets: hydrology, fluvial export of organic matter, greenhouse gas fluxes and meteorology/soil physics. The data from all sites follow a common processing chain from the sensors to the public repository. The raw data are stored on an FTP server. After operator or automatic processing, data are stored in a database, from which a web application extracts the data to make them available ( https://data-snot.cnrs.fr/data-access/ ). Each year at least, an archive of each dataset is stored in Zenodo, with a digital object identifier (DOI) attribution ( https://zenodo.org/communities/sno_tourbieres_data/ ).     

On tectonic character of the connection zones of the Earth’s crust in the South Caspian Basin and Scythian–Turan plate based on seismological data

The features of the spatial distribution of earthquake sources in the South Caspian Basin (SCB) are considered in relation to the regional deep structure. The results of analysis showed that the SCB and Scythian–Turan plate are divided by deep faults of small length with a west–northwest trending. These faults are included in the Apsheron–Balkhan threshold zone. The opinion of some researchers about subduction of the SCB crust under the epi-Hercynian platform of the northern Caspian Sea has not been confirmed.     

Wind and wave height climate from two decades of altimeter records on the Chilean Coast (15°–56.5° S)

Ocean Dynamics - In order to look for climatological changes on significant wave height and wind magnitude distributions, two decades of altimeter data were analyzed in a monthly 1° ×...     

Influence of heliospheric and geomagnetic activity on the dynamics of the relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth’s outer radiation belt around the minimum of the solar activity in 2008–2010

The relativistic electron flux in the Earth’s outer radiation belt generally decreased by almost three orders of magnitude during the minimum of cycle 23 in 2009. Such a behavior was possibly caused by very low geomagnetic activity during an extremely weak interplanetary field in that period. This decrease was replaced by an increase in the relativistic electron flux by two orders of magnitude during several months after the sunspot minimum at the beginning of 2010.     

Effect of Surface Morphology on the Dissipation During Shear and Slip Along a Rock–Rock Interface that Contains a Visco-elastic Core

High resolution topography measurements of the Vuache–Sillingy fault (Alps, France) reveal a characteristic roughness of the fault zone. We investigate the effect of roughness on the rheology of a planar shear configuration by using a model system consisting of a visco-elastic layer embedded into a rigid solid. The model is discussed in the context of several geological cases: a damage fault zone, a fault smeared with a clay layer, and a shear zone with strain weakening. Using both analytical approaches and finite element simulations, we calculate to linear order the relation between wall roughness and the viscous dissipation in the fault zone as well as the average shear rate.     

Comment on “Luminescence chronology of the Sankosh river terraces in the Assam–Buthan foothills of the Himalayas: Implications to climate and tectonics” by Quaternary Geochronology 72, 101364

In a study of which the main objective was to assess the impact of climate change and tectonics on the formation of river terraces along the Sankosh River, the eastern foreland of the Himalayas, the authors obtained geochrono-logical data using luminescence technique. Four strath river terraces (T4–T1) were distinguished within the valley bottom, and alluvial sediments from three terraces (T4, T2 and T1) were dated to the age range from 143 to 14 ka. The alluvial mantels of river terraces were then linked to the scheme of glacial-interglacial cycle. The paper, however, suffers from few inconsistent and missing information, and the assessment on the landscape evolution of the river valley is incomprehensive. The authors relied on feldspars and therefore the IRSL method was used, but “OSL ages” are discussed at the end. They state that (i) tectonics creates space for sediment accommodation and (ii) the luminescence ages flank deposition and incision phases. Despite the fact that the statements are questionable, the ways these happen are not elucidated within the paper. Due to the lack of geochronological data for T3 terrace, its formation is very enigmatic. It is even more mysterious in the light of the data for the other terraces, but the authors made no attempt to explain this riddle. However, that certain inability of reconstructing the history of T3 would shed a shadow on the robustness of the ages obtained.     

The Effect of a Mining and Smelting Plant on the Dynamics of Heavy Metals in Small River Basins in the Zone of Kursk–Belgorod Magnetic Anomaly

Heavy metal distribution under the impact of integrated mining and smelting works is studied. Factors affecting small river pollution are analyzed. The capability of small streams to create and preserve a barrier function in respect of water contamination with toxic heavy metals is estimated.     

Lake–mire ecosystem transformation and its possible forcing mechanisms in volcanic landform regions: a case study in the Gushantun peatland of northeast China

Large numbers of peatlands were developed in volcanic landform regions, which would provide valuable long-term records of lake–mire ecosystem shifts and act as significant carbon pool in regional carbon cycle. To investigate lake–mire ecosystem transformations and driving mechanisms in volcanic landform regions, the developmental history of Gushantun peatland in northeast China was reconstructed in this study. Results indicate that Gushantun peatland initiated in the deepest portions of the basin, and subsequently experienced expansions outward. Peat initiated from approximately 12 ka cal. bp to present. The developmental patterns of Gushantun peatland can be divided into four stages: the stable stage 1 (12–10 ka cal. bp ), maximum stage (10–7 ka cal. bp ), stable stage 2 (7–4 ka cal. bp ) and stable stage 3 (4–0 ka cal. bp ). The possible forcing mechanisms for the development of Gushantun peatland were different during different periods. From 12 ka cal. bp to 10 ka cal. bp , autogenic process was probably the major controlling factor for the expansion of this peatland. From 10 to 7 ka cal. bp , flat basin morphology was the major influence factor for fast expansion. However, the development of Gushantun peatland was probably controlled by the dual effects of high moisture and autogenic process during the period of 7 to 4 ka cal. bp . From 4 ka cal. bp to present, steep basin morphology was the major influence factor, while moisture might be the secondary factor for development of Gushantun peatland. These features indicate that lake–mire ecosystem transforms in volcanic landform regions of Changbai Mountains were probably triggered by the complex effects of autogenic process, hydroclimate and underlying basin morphology. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal Variations in Gutenberg–Richter b-Value Depending on the Depth and Lateral Position in the Earth’s Crust of the Garm Region,Tajikistan

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Spatiotemporal variations in the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) b-value and in the minimum magnitude of a predicted earthquake (MPE) are studied in detail...     

Impact of ocean–wave coupling on typhoon-induced waves and surge levels around the Korean Peninsula: a case study of Typhoon Bolaven

Typhoon-induced waves and surges are important when predicting potential hazards near coastal regions. In this paper, we applied a coupled modeling system for ocean–wave interaction to examine prediction capabilities for typhoon-induced waves and surges around the Korean Peninsula. To identify how ocean–wave coupling impacts wave and surge simulations during typhoon conditions, a set of comparative experiments was performed during Typhoon Bolaven (2012): (1) a fully coupled ocean–wave model, (2) a one-way coupled ocean–wave model without surface current feedback and ocean-to-wave water levels, and (3) a stand-alone ocean model without considering wave-based sea surface roughness (SSR). When coupled with the ocean model, the surface current reduced significantly the wave height on the right-hand side of the advancing typhoon track and improved prediction accuracy along the southern coast of Korea. Compared with the observed surge levels, the simulated surge height yielded improved results for peak height magnitude and timing compared with the uncoupled model. For wave-to-surge feedback, we found that wave-induced SSR plays an important role by modulating wind stress in the surface layer. The modulated wind stress directly affected the surge height, which improved surge peak prediction during the typhoon.     

A case study of damages of the Kandla Port and Customs Office tower supported on a mat–pile foundation in liquefied soils under the 2001 Bhuj earthquake

A case study is presented of the interaction between the bending due to laterally spreading forces and axial-load induced settlement on the piled foundations of the Kandla Port and Customs Tower located in Kandla Port, India, during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The 22 m tall tower had an eccentric mass at the roof and was supported on a piled-raft foundation that considerably tilted away as was observed in the aftermath of the earthquake. The soil at the site consists of 10 m of clay overlaid by a 12 m deep sandy soil layer. Post-earthquake investigation revealed the following: (a) liquefaction of the deep sandy soil strata below the clay layer; (b) settlement of the ground in the vicinity of the building; (c) lateral spreading of the nearby ground towards the sea front. The foundation of the tower consists of 0.5 m thick concrete mat and 32 piles. The piles are 18 m long and therefore passes through 10 m of clayey soil and rested on liquefiable soils. Conventional analysis of a single pile or a pile group, without considering the raft foundation would predict a severe tilting and/or settlement of the tower eventually leading to a complete collapse. It has been concluded that the foundation mat over the non-liquefied crust shared a considerable amount of load of the superstructure and resisted the complete collapse of the building.