Sensitivity of Mesoscale Surface Dynamics to Surface Soil and Vegetation Contrasts over the Carolina Sandhills

A region of contrasting soils exists over the Carolinas region of the southeastern United States. Previous research has shown an increase in mesoscale summertime precipitation over this region. Numerical simulations are analyzed to investigate the relationships between mesoscale surface dynamics and the transition from clay to sandy soils over this region. Numerical modeling experiments using four different soil and vegetation patterns suggest that the presence of the clay-to-sand transition zone produces a surface heat flux gradient and enhanced convergence. The soil contrasts appear to dominate over vegetation contrasts in affecting local surface heating and convergence in the model atmosphere.     

On the Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Indian Region Using a Synthetic Vortex Scheme in a Mesoscale Model

The tropical cyclones form over the oceanic regions where conventional meteorological observations are not available. This contributes to a poor initial analysis of the cyclonic vortex and hence inadequate forecast. One way of overcoming the above problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. In this study we are investigating the effect of inclusion of a synthetic vortex based on Rankine as well as on Holland wind profiles, using NCAR-AFWA bogussing scheme for the prediction of four tropical cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during November 2002 and 2005, December 2005 and over the Arabian Sea during May 2004, using the MM5 model. Two numerical experiments are designed in this study for each of the above four cyclones. In the first experiment the model is integrated with a synthetic vortex based on Rankine wind profile while in the second experiment we utilize the Holland wind profile. For the November 2002 cyclone, in both the experiments the model is integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time. The results of the study for the November 2002 cyclone show that the model simulation with the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. Also, the results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Holland vortex showed a better longitudinal height section of the horizontal wind speed across the center of the cyclone. The track error of the cyclone for the November 2002 cyclone is less in the model simulation with the Holland vortex at the initial time and at 24 hours of forecast. The results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Rankine vortex showed greater vertical wind speed as compared to the Holland vortex. However, for the November 2002 cyclone there were no significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for both the experiments. In order to provide an adequate number of case studies for a good statistical sample, the present study is extended for three additional cyclones over the Indian region. All four cyclones studied here show that the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of the minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. The Holland vortex showed a better vertical structure of wind speed in the longitudinal height section at 24 hours of forecast for the November 2005 cyclone while the structure was better for the Rankine vortex for the remaining two cyclones. There were no significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for the two experiments corresponding to all four cyclones. Some statistical results pertaining to all four cyclones are provided such as the average track error as well as the average difference between the observed and the model minimum sea-level pressure and the maximum wind speed. The statistical results corresponding to the average of all the four cyclones are at only a slight variance with the results corresponding to the November 2002 cyclone.     

深季节冻土区列车行驶路基振动数值模拟研究

分析大庆深季节冻土区铁路路基的冬季现场加速度监测结果,获得了列车经过时铁路路基冻结地表振动加速度的时程特性及其衰减规律,并运用动力有限元方法进行了动力响应分析。研究结果表明：①随着列车行驶速度的增大,路基振动加速度亦增大,且重载货车振动响应大于高速客车;②列车行驶引起的路基振动加速度幅值,随着距线路中心距离的增加而迅速衰减;③应用有限元方法分析列车行驶路基振动特性是可行的。本文为研究深季节冻土区铁路路基振动特性提供了一种分析方法,对加深了解深季节冻土区铁路路基振动特性具有重要意义。     

地震作用下重力式挡土墙土压力特性数值模拟研究

重力式挡土墙在地震作用下的土压力特性一直是挡土墙设计的重要内容。本文通过数值模拟,在挡土墙墙背轴线上设置一系列监测点,得到地震过程中监测点的加速度、土压力强度时程曲线;然后根据时程曲线分析墙后土压力强度分布特征、根据土压力强度分布求出总土压力、根据总土压力求出其对墙趾的力矩;最后分别将土压力强度分布、总土压力、总土压力对墙趾的力矩与现有的研究方法及规范对比。结果表明:地震作用下墙背各点加速度峰值在同时刻发生,但土压力峰值不在同时刻发生;现有的一些研究方法未考虑土压力强度峰值时程变化,其结果比实际偏大;在低地震烈度条件下,规范计算的总土压力及倾覆力矩偏于保守,而在高烈度条件下则偏于危险。     

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

Mesoscale slope current variability in the Gulf of Lions. Interpretation of in-situ measurements using a three-dimensional model

The ECOLOPHY experiments aimed at investigating physical exchanges between coastal and open sea. They were carried out in June and December 2005 over the shelf-break in the North-eastern part of the Gulf of Lions (Northwestern Mediterranean Sea). This area is considered to be the generation zone for the eddy and meandering structures of the Northern Current (NC). The objective of the present work is to examine mesoscale variability of this coastal slope current in the light of available data. Numerical modeling is used to support the field data analysis. ADCP current measurements over a one-year period show that mesoscale activity is maximal in late winter, correlating with the seasonal variability of the NC and, also, partly with local winds. Measured currents exhibit mesoscale fluctuations with periods ranging from 3 to 30 days, in agreement with previous analyses. Fluctuations of periods longer than 10 days are found to be mainly oriented in the direction of the mean current, whereas more frequently observed high frequency fluctuations tend to be oriented cross-slope, suggesting a relationship with the NC mesoscale meandering. Moreover, trajectories of surdrift buoys launched in the NC vein exhibit mesoscale phenomena, such as current meanders or eddies and on-shelf intrusions. Numerical modeling provides a synoptic point of view and is used hereafter to support physical interpretation of punctual eulerian or lagrangian measurements. Therefore, modeled hydrodynamic fields are used to analyze surdrift buoy trajectories and computed vertically averaged current and Ertel potential vorticity provide a better understanding of these behaviors.     

Mesoscale spatial variability of soil‐water content in an alpine meadow on the northern Tibetan Plateau

Soil water is an important limiting factor for restoring alpine meadows on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Field studies of soil‐water content (SWC), however, are rare due to the harsh environment, especially in a mesoscale alpine‐meadow ecosystem. The objective of this study was to assess the spatial variability of SWC and the temporal variation of the spatial variability in a typical alpine meadow using a geostatistical approach. SWC was measured using a neutron probe to a depth of 50 cm at 113 locations on 22 sampling occasions in a 33.5‐hm² alpine meadow during the 2015 and 2016 growing seasons. Mean SWC in the study plot for the two growing seasons was 18.7, 14.0, 13.9, 14.3, and 14.8% for depths of 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 cm, respectively, and SWC was significantly larger at 10 cm than at other depths. SWC was negatively correlated with its spatial variability, and the spatial variability was higher when SWC was lower. Thirty‐three sampling locations in this study plot met the requirement of accuracy of the central limit theorem. A Gaussian model was the best fit for SWC semivariance at depths of 10, 20, and 30 cm, and the spatial structural ratio was between 0.997 and 1, indicating a strong spatial dependence of SWC. The sill and range fluctuated temporally, and the nugget and spatial structural ratio did not generally vary with time. The sill was significantly positively correlated with SWC and was initially stable and then tend to increase with SWC. The nugget, range, and spatial structure ratio, however, were not correlated with SWC. These results contribute to our understanding of SWC spatial distribution and variation in alpine meadows and provide basic empirical SWC data for mesoscale model simulations, optimizing sampling strategies and managing meadows on the Tibetan Plateau.     

太湖丘陵地区典型坡面土壤侵蚀与养分流失

建立了基于137Cs技术的土壤侵蚀的定量模型,采用有关土壤养分流失方程,对太湖地区典型坡面的土壤侵蚀和土壤养分流失进行初步估算.结果表明,研究地区的典型坡面存在着一定的土壤侵蚀,林地各个剖面点的土壤侵蚀模数平均为1313.6 t/(km2 @a),而菜地所在的微地貌部位土壤侵蚀更达5185.68 t/(km2 @a).土壤侵蚀主要受植被覆盖和人为耕作的影响,侵蚀量的大小排序为坡麓菜地>坡中马尾松林地>竹林地>坡顶马尾松林地.选择的典型坡面存在着一定的土壤养分流失,林地有机质、全氮、全磷与全钾的平均流失量亦分别高达28.29,1.38,0.35和16.76 t/(km2 @a),养分流失量大的地貌部位的土壤有机质、全氮、全磷和全钾含量低,而土壤侵蚀微弱的坡顶林地土壤养分含量较高.菜地土壤养分流失量最大,但由于施肥作用,土壤养分含最高.太湖丘陵地区的土壤侵蚀与养分流失不仅关系到本地区土壤肥力的退化,并对太湖水体环境质量的产生影响.     

Characteristics of a Short-Term and Imminent Earthquake Precursor Field in the Northern Part of North China and Numerical Simulation of Source Process

According to studies of more than 20 earthquakes with MS≥5.0 in North China, seven features of the short-term and imminent earthquake precursors have been summarized in this paper. At the same time, taking the short-term and imminent earthquake stage as the physical process of a source's medium softening and fault creep, we calculated temporal variation of mean stress, maximum shear stress, body strain, and pore pressure in some certain points (supposed stations) in the source area and its adjacent area by using an anisotropic and nonlinear source model and a finite element method. According to an analysis of these theoretical curves, we conclude that the short-term and imminent earthquake precursors have such characteristics as complex shapes, exponential growth of the precursor number with tune, and precursors' migration from the outside area to the source area, which to a certain extent reveal the cause of the characteristics of the short-term and imminent earthquake precursor field.     

弱震区土层对基岩峰值加速度放大效应的试验研究

以人工爆炸波作为震源,通过现场试验获得基岩和土层场地爆炸波地震动时程,分析场地覆盖层厚度对基岩地震动峰值加速度和地震动持时的放大效应。试验结果表明:土层对基岩地震动有放大作用,基岩峰值加速度放大系数受覆盖层厚度和土层结构的共同作用影响;地震动持续时间随覆盖层厚度的增加而显著增加,受覆盖层土层结构影响不显著。     

煤巷高冒区遗煤自燃数值模拟分析

煤巷高冒区因遗煤易自燃而成为煤矿内因火灾的重要危险源之一。本文在分析高冒区遗煤赋存状态的基础上,结合平煤十三矿11111巷道高冒区实际情况,应用FLUENT软件,对高冒区漏风风速、温度、氧气浓度以及CO浓度的分布进行了数值模拟。模拟结果表明：高冒区中部漏风在自燃风速范围内;在高冒区内,高温点出现在中部;高冒区中部氧气消耗量最大,煤氧反应产物CO浓度在高冒区中部最高。根据高冒区温度、氧气浓度、CO浓度、漏风风速的分布规律,可将高冒区划分为“易自燃带”和“不易自燃带”。     

设定琉球海沟发生罕遇地震评估我国东南沿海地区的海啸风险

根据构造相似条件分析,琉球海沟与日本海沟、智利海沟、印尼巽他海沟一样具备发生9级罕遇超巨大地震的可能。在对近几年来全球发生的超巨大地震参数及构造对比分析的基础上,设定琉球海沟9.0级地震参数,并将其引发的海啸进行数值模拟研究。结果表明,该地震可引发初始波高为8m的海啸,台湾东北部半小时后遭受10m以上海啸,3~4小时左右传至浙南、闽北沿岸,近岸各处波高在1~2m;5小时左右传至浙北、粤北沿岸,浙江近岸各处波高在2m左右,广东沿海、台湾海峡由于台湾岛的正面阻挡,海啸波高低于50cm;8小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波高约1m。海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关,我国东南海域地形变化复杂、海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,模拟结果可能比实际海啸偏小。我国沿海地区分布着不少已建和在建的核电厂,在核电设计时未考虑海啸,一旦发生这种罕遇地震海啸则影响不可忽视,尤其是若与风暴潮、天文大潮叠加则可能出现严重后果。由于核电安全要求万无一失,故须制订有效预警和应对措施。     

不同场地条件下水下隧道周围土体位移变化的数值分析

以拟建的哈尔滨松花江隧道为背景,考虑土体—衬砌的材料非线性特性和相互作用,按平面应变假定,建立在不同场地条件下的若干接近实际的有限元计算模型,应用有限元计算软件ANSYS进行数值分析,得出不同场地条件下隧道周围土体位移的分布规律,遴选出了影响水下隧道周围土体变形的部分关键因素,为合理确定隧道覆土层安全厚度提供了一定的理论依据。     

A comparison of cumulus parameterization schemes in a numerical weather prediction model for a monsoon rainfall event

In order to evaluate cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes for hydrological applications, the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research's fifth‐generation mesoscale model (MM5) was used to simulate a summer monsoon in east China. The performances of five CP schemes (Anthes–Kuo, Betts–Miller, Fritsch–Chappell, Kain–Fritsch, and Grell) were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate amount of rainfall during the heavy, moderate, and light phases of the event. The Grell scheme was found to be the most robust, performing well at all rainfall intensity and spatial scales. The Betts–Miller scheme also performed well, particularly at larger scales, but its assumptions may make it inapplicable to non‐tropical environments and at smaller scales. The Kain–Fritsch scheme was the best at simulating moderate rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to the Fritsch–Chappell scheme on which it was based. The Anthes–Kuo scheme was found to underpredict precipitation consistently at the mesoscale. Simulation performance was found to improve when schemes that included downdrafts were used in conjunction with schemes that did not include downdrafts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

郯庐断裂带宿迁段合欢路土壤氡分布特征与迁移特征的数值模拟

沿郯庐断裂带宿迁段合欢路布设土壤氡测线并对测得的数据进行分析研究,结果表明研究区域内土壤氡探测结果对断裂带位置、断层类型和特征有较好的指示性。在已知场地地质构造参数、地层岩性特征的基础上,建立土壤氡迁移模型。建立模型时识别了断裂类型和覆盖层分层特征,并讨论了断层内部结构与氡浓度取值,使模型与实际情况相等。数值模拟结果印证了土壤氡异常峰区间在圈定断裂位置和断层破碎带中的重要作用,揭示了氡在不同覆盖层中的迁移速度,并定量解释了合欢路场地断层土壤氡异常的成因。     

自贡西山公园山脊场地地形和土层效应数值模拟

利用自贡地形影响强震动观测台阵在汶川地震中获得的强震动记录,以位于山脚下基岩上的台站为参考点,采用传统谱比法对场地放大效应进行了初步分析;同时用显式有限元-有限差分方法模拟了自贡西山公园山脊场地地形和土层的地震动效应,并进行了数值模拟结果与强震动观测结果的对比分析.结果表明:上覆土层对地震动的放大作用相对于地形变化的放大作用更为明显;地形对地震动水平分量的放大效应要明显于对竖直分量的放大效应;采用二维模型对上覆土层的模拟与观测结果较吻合,对于基岩介质部分的模拟在低频范围内也能反映山脊地形对地震动的影响.     

华北北部短临前兆场特征与震源过程的数值模拟

本文对华北２０多次Ｍｓ≥５的震例进行了研究，得到了华北北部地震的７项短临异常特征。同时，把短临地震阶段视为震源介质软化和断层蠕动的物理过程，利用各向异性非线性震源模型和有限元方法计算了震源及其周围地区特征点（假定观测点）上的平均应力、最大剪切力、体应变和孔隙压等物理量随时间的变化，通过对这些理论曲线的分析得到了短临地震前兆具有形态多样复杂、数量随时间指数型增长、异常从外围向震中迁移、异常相对集中于     

高原地区路基地震液化数值模拟研究

在青海玉树地震之后,有大量路基出现由于液化而导致的病害问题。以青海S308线结古—曲麻莱段公路路基变形为例,通过FLAC3D数值模拟软件还原该路基在地震中的变形破坏过程,得出如下结论:(1)无地下水情况下,边坡出现明显塑性屈服的振动强度是0.6g,塑性屈服首先发生在填土厚度较薄的路基两端。(2)若砂土完全饱水,随振幅的增加,饱和砂土层液化趋势逐渐增强。振幅小于0.3g时砂土层没有液化。振幅为0.4g时5s以后砂土层出现液化;振幅大于0.5g以后,从振动的开始就出现了液化。(3)下伏饱和砂土的路基动力破坏机理为:饱和砂土层近地表处屈服屈服区在饱和砂土层中向中部扩展饱和砂土层屈服贯通饱和砂土层完全屈服填土后部首先破坏填土破坏区在填土-砂土界面向下扩展填土后部地表屈服开裂破坏区在填土内扩展。至最终破坏时,填土中后部大范围开裂屈服,但填土前部依然保持完整。     

Soil erosion in New Zealand is a net sink of CO2

Soil erosion in New Zealand exports much sediment and particulate organic carbon (POC) to the sea. The influence of this carbon export on carbon transfers between soils and the atmosphere has been largely unknown. Erosion models are used to estimate the net carbon transfer between soils and atmosphere due to soil erosion for New Zealand. The models are used to estimate the spatial distribution of erosion, which is combined with a digital map of soil organic carbon content to produce the spatial distribution of carbon erosion. The sequestration of atmospheric CO₂ by regenerating soils is estimated by combining carbon recovery data with the age distribution of soils since erosion occurrence. The North Island of New Zealand is estimated to export 1·9 (with uncertainty of ?0·5 and +1·0) million tonnes of POC per year to the sea and to sequester 1·25 (?0·3 /+0·6) million tonnes of carbon per year from the atmosphere through regenerating soils. The South Island of New Zealand is estimated to export 2·9 (?0·7/+1·5) million tonnes of POC per year and to sequester approximately the same amount. Assuming exported carbon is buried at sea with an efficiency of 80% gives New Zealand a net carbon sink of 3·1 (?2·0/+2·5) million tonnes per year; which is equivalent to 45% of New Zealand's fossil fuel carbon emissions in 1990. The net sink primarily results from a conveyor belt transfer of carbon from the atmosphere to soils regenerating from erosion to the sea floor where carbon is permanently buried. The net sink due to soil erosion can be further increased by reforestation of those terrains where erosion is excessive and there is no carbon recovery in the soils. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

P_5含量对滑坡体砾质土的力学性质影响试验研究

粗粒含量对滑坡体砾质土的力学性质具有重要意义。针对乌东德水电站金坪子滑坡体砾质土拟合了5条不同P5含量的试验级配,分别进行饱和状态与非饱和状态的固结排水剪切试验。试验表明,两种试验条件下的变形参数和强度参数均较高,变形参数k值与kb总体上随P5含量的增大而增大;P5含量越高粗颗粒的骨架作用越强,试样的模量越大。砾质土饱和状态的内摩擦角和变形参数低于非饱和状态,说明试样浸水饱和会使强度模量降低,降雨将降低滑坡体的稳定性。