湟源地区“2010·07”暴雨洪水调查分析

2010年7月6日青海湟源地区普降暴雨,暴雨中心山根地区发生了200年一遇特大暴雨,湟源县董家庄水文站出现了200年一遇的特大洪水,造成了重大的洪涝灾害。本文通过这次暴雨洪水调查情况,对"2010·07"暴雨洪水特性进行了分析,以便为研究该地区暴雨洪水灾害及防治对策提供科学依据。     

长江流域安徽段2016年暴雨洪水成因分析

2016年6月18日7月21日,长江流域安徽段发生暴雨洪水,最大3d、7d雨量位居历史第一,重现期大于50年一遇,最大15d雨量位居历史第二,重现期接近50年一遇,至7月5日长江安徽段全线超警戒水位,给长江流域安徽段造成较为严重的洪涝灾害。收集、整理了本次暴雨洪水的资料,对暴雨的过程和成因进行了分析,并结合历史特征年资料进行了比较。结果表明:强降雨、降雨的空间分布以及前期长江底水高是2016年洪水总体水平位居历史第二的主要因素。     

岷县“8·10”暴雨洪水调查分析

在收集和调查岷县“8·10”暴雨洪水资料的基础上,分析了此次暴雨洪水成因及特性,探寻暴雨洪水演进规律,提出了防治对策,为今后水旱灾害防御和灾后重建提供技术支持。结果表明：此次暴雨高度集中,强度大、持续时间长、范围广、突发性强,3 h降水量约为100 a一遇;洪水陡涨陡落、洪峰流量大,主要沟道洪峰流量重现期在35～100 a一遇。     

西江流域灾害性暴雨洪水特征及成因分析

为探究西江流域暴雨洪水发生规律,根据1994、1998、2005和2008年四场灾害性暴雨洪水实测资料,对暴雨洪水过程进行分析。通过计算暴雨时间、空间变差系数、相对中心和洪水集中度等特征指标定量分析暴雨洪水特性,结合洪水组合和遭遇情况分析洪水成因。分析结果表明:四场暴雨雨量分布不均,降雨历时均大于10d,且暴雨相对中心值呈减小趋势,暴雨中心沿河流流向移动易导致灾害性洪水。1998和2005年两场100年一遇洪水均为全流域大量级洪水遭遇导致。两场暴雨均有雨量大、时间变差系数V_t值小,时间分布均匀和雨峰系数C_p值大,主雨峰峰现时间迟的特点;暴雨中心均有向下游转移的趋势,空间变差系数V_p值均趋于增加,空间分布趋于集中。研究结果可为西江流域的水库群联合防洪调度提供科学依据。     

复杂边界条件多洪源防洪保护区洪水风险分析

为了定量获取防洪保护区在多洪源和复杂边界条件下的溃堤洪水风险信息,以非恒定流控制方程为理论基础,建立了多洪源一维河网水动力学模型和防洪保护区二维洪水演进模型,利用溃坝模型实现河道与保护区的耦联,并采用局部网格加密和相似建筑物模拟等方法处理保护区内道路等复杂边界的导阻水作用。利用所建模型模拟了长江、汉江和东荆河3种不同洪水来源, 在4种不同位置溃堤情况下汉南至白庙长江干堤防洪保护区的洪水淹没情景,采用基于淹没水深的损失率关系法对比分析了4种计算方案的淹没面积、经济损失和受灾人口。结果表明:模型构建合理、稳定性和适应性好,复杂边界对洪水演进过程影响明显,不同洪源溃堤情形的风险信息差异较大;在计算条件下,以长江发生1954年型300年一遇洪水向新溃口情形下的淹没损失最严重,其淹没面积达3 790 km2,受灾人口为196.8万人,经济损失约802亿元。研究成果可为洪水风险管理与避洪转移决策提供有力的技术支撑。     

温德河流域“2010·07”暴雨洪水分析

2010年7月27～28日,第二松花江支流温德河流域普降特大暴雨,致使温德河干流发生了350年一遇超历史纪录的特大洪水。依据实测资料和暴雨洪水调查成果,分析了此次暴雨洪水的特性,以及水利工程在抵御洪水中的作用,并与历史最大暴雨、最大洪水进行了对比分析,为该流域暴雨洪水灾害及防治对策研究积累了经验。     

涞源王安镇“2012．7”暴雨洪水分析

2012年7月21日至7月22日,大清河水系拒马河流域以王安镇为中心普降暴雨,王安镇最大6h降水量275mm,为超千年一遇暴雨,最大24h降水量378．6mm,为300a一遇暴雨,同时在拒马河上发生了自1964年来最大的洪水,代表站紫荆关水文站最大流量为2620m3／s,洪水重现期相当于20a一遇,重点对暴雨中心的降水成因、特性、重现期、洪水情况及河道行洪能力进行分析,为防涝减灾提供参考。     

基于频率法的建始水文站“20200726”暴雨洪水分析

暴雨洪水对地区经济和居民生产生活都具有破坏性的影响。通过对某一区域进行暴雨特点、暴雨成因、洪水特点以及洪水成因分析,能够为未来暴雨洪水预测提供参考。本文以该区域的建始水文站(建始城关水文站)为例,从降水过程及分布、暴雨重现期、洪水特征等多个方面分析了暴雨洪水成因和过程,得到了暴雨重现期和洪水重现期,为当地暴雨洪水分析与预报积累经验,为工程建设、水文计算分析提供参考依据。     

新疆天山南麓柯坪河水文特性与洪水分析

柯坪河是天山南麓典型的雨水和泉水补给河流,河水主要为地下泉水出露补给,流量比较稳定,但暴雨的出现经常引起洪水发生.柯坪河仅有不足一年的水文观测,但河水主要是泉水补给,水量非常稳定,根据野外调查和推算,分析了柯坪河年内水文变化特征.依据洪水调查和文献查证,结合气象观测资料,分析了近百年来的典型洪水事件,建立了不同几率洪水发生的洪峰流量和洪水过程.最近几十年来的气温升高和降水增加,也使暴雨洪水的强度加强,并且频次增加.应加强对极端气候事件引发的洪水的监测和应对,在农业和水库安全运营上应注意和加强建立应对气候变化的措施.     

长江流域华西秋雨多发区“11·9”暴雨洪水分析

2011年9月上中旬,受西北强冷空气和西南暖湿气流的共同影响,长江流域"华西秋雨"多发区的四川东北部、陕西西南部等地连续出现了3次强降雨过程,致使嘉陵江支流渠江发生100年一遇超历史实测记录的特大洪水,汉江上游发生20年一遇的大洪水。依据报汛资料分析了此次暴雨洪水的特性,以及水利工程在抵御洪水中的作用,并与"03.9"、"05.10"洪水进行了对比分析,可为华西秋雨多发区今后的洪水灾害防御提供参考。     

An integrated flood inundation model for coastal urban watershed of Navi Mumbai,India

Most urban agglomerations located in the Mumbai coastal region in India are vulnerable to flooding due to increasing frequency of the short-duration heavy rainfall, by virtue of their location at foothills on one side and tidal variations on the other side. Steep slopes in the catchment ensure fast runoff and tidal variation adds to backwater effect in the drainage system, which together are favorable for flooding. The present study simulates the flood inundation due to heavy rainfall and high-tide conditions in a coastal urban catchment within Mumbai region with detention pond. Overland flow is modeled using a mass balance approach, which can adapt to hilly slopes and smoothly accommodate detention pond hydraulics. Dynamic wave channel routing based on finite element method captures the backwater effects due to tidal variation, and raster-based flood inundation model enables direct use of digital elevation model. The integrated model is capable of simulating detention pond hydraulics within the raster flood model for heavy rainfall events. The database required for the model is obtained from the geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Application of the integrated model to literature problems and the catchment of the study area for two non-flooding events gave satisfactory results. Further, the model is applied to an extreme rainfall event of July 26, 2005, coinciding with high-tide conditions, which revealed vulnerability of the area to flooding despite of an existing detention pond. A sensitivity analysis on the location of detention pond indicated that catchment response can be better governed by relocating the detention pond to upstream of existing detention pond especially when heavy rainfall events are becoming frequent.     

Flood hazard assessment with multiparameter approach derived from coupled 1D and 2D hydrodynamic flow model

Hydrodynamic flow modeling is carried out using a coupled 1D and 2D hydrodynamic flow model in northern India where an industrial plant is proposed. Two flooding scenarios, one considering the flooding source at regional/catchment level and another considering all flooding sources at local level have been simulated. For simulating flooding scenario due to flooding of the upstream catchment, the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the main river is routed and its flooding impact at the plant site is studied, while at the local level flooding, in addition to PMF in the main river, the probable maximum precipitation at the plant site and breaches in the canals near the plant site have been considered. The flood extent, depth, level, duration and maximum flow velocity have been computed. Three parameters namely the flood depth, cross product of flood depth and velocity and flood duration have been used for assessing the flood hazard, and a flood hazard classification scheme has been proposed. Flood hazard assessment for flooding due to upstream catchment and study on local scale facilitates determination of plinth level for the plant site and helps in identifying the flood protection measures.     

雨水口堵塞程度对其泄流能力影响的试验研究

雨水口是下泄地表径流的关键设施,一旦堵塞将导致市政排水系统的泄流能力无法充分发挥,这是引发城市洪涝灾害的主要原因之一。为定量分析雨水口堵塞对其泄流能力的影响,本研究分别考虑进水篦及连接管不同堵塞程度的情况,开展了较大来流水深下的概化水槽试验,共计进行了608组试验。试验结果表明:①进水篦及连接管堵塞均会显著影响雨水口的泄流能力,且后者对雨水口泄流能力的影响更大。②利用试验数据率定了各堵塞情况下水流以堰流或管嘴流形式从雨水口下泄时的流量系数;基于量纲分析及回归分析,给出了各堵塞情况下雨水口泄流能力的幂函数表达式,并利用试验数据对参数进行了率定,率定效果优于堰流或管嘴流公式。③通过与未堵塞情况进行比较,基于幂指数均值假定及非线性拟合方法,建立堵塞系数与堵塞程度之间的经验关系,并最终提出了一个可以分别考虑进水篦与连接管堵塞影响的雨水口泄流能力公式;该公式可以考虑雨水口堰流及管嘴流等不同泄流形式,能够反映进水篦、连接管不同堵塞程度的影响,适用于来流水深较大的情况。     

区域气候模式水平分辨率对黄淮海流域当代气候模拟的影响

区域气候模式是进行流域尺度气候变化研究的重要工具,其中水平分辨率对流域模拟结果的影响亟待评估。本文使用区域气候模式RegCM4,在ERA-Interim再分析资料驱动下,进行2种水平分辨率（50 km和25 km）1990-2010年东亚区域的长时间连续积分模拟。通过与观测资料的对比,评估RegCM4对黄淮海流域的模拟性能,同时分析水平分辨率对模拟结果的影响。结果表明:① 2组模拟均可以较好地再现黄淮海流域冬季、夏季平均气温和降水的空间分布,以及气温和降水的年循环变化;对极端气候事件指数的分布模拟效果也较好,且对与气温有关的极端气候事件指数模拟效果优于与降水有关的极端气候事件指数。②与观测相比,也存在一定的偏差,如模拟的冬季气温存在冷偏差,夏季气温存在暖偏差,冬季、夏季降水在大部分地区偏多等。③ 2组模拟对比来看,对冬季、夏季平均气温的量级和空间分布,25 km模拟与观测更加接近;对冬季、夏季平均降水,50 km模拟与观测的空间相关系数分别为0.86和0.44,较25 km模拟有较大提高;对极端事件,2组模拟差别不大。模拟结果可为后续此版本模式在黄淮海流域气候变化研究中的应用提供参考。     

Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study

The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied over a 270-km² flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models.     

1998年长江中游洪水系统反演及高洪水位形成原因探讨

采用描述江湖洪水运动的数学模型,对长江中游1998年洪水进行实况复演和还原计算,定量分析三口分流变化、洞庭湖湖容扩大、分蓄洪运用对荆江河段、洞庭湖区以及城陵矶至汉口河段水情的相对影响,结合定性的物理解释,深入探讨了1998洪水高洪水位的形成原因及其与江湖水情的相互作用规律,并对退田还湖和三峡水库的防洪作用进行了论证。     

Railway embankment failure due to ballast layer breach caused by inundation flows

A railway embankment constructed on a floodplain is at risk of damage due to flooding flows. The process and critical conditions that lead to railway embankment damage during flooding are not clearly understood, rendering risk estimations impossible and hindering the development of flood-resilient rail systems. For this work, we first reviewed records of railway damage in flood plains and flows through the ballast layer. The breaching process was selected as the focus of our study. We secondly specified the fundamental characteristics of flows through a ballast layer. The critical flow rate per unit width and the minimum upstream water depth required for initiating extensive ballast breaching were experimentally evaluated using a full-scale ballast layer with rails and sleepers constructed using materials originally utilized in actual railways. A two-dimensional flow model was then employed for estimating the flow through a ballast layer that was placed on an impermeable base embankment. A simple ballast breaching model was also employed in order to explore a higher flow rate condition that could not be represented in our experiment due to limited facilities. The breaching pattern represented by the simulation model corresponded to the breaching pattern observed in the experiment. In addition to the above, here, we also discuss the ballast breaching process based on qualitative field records and quantitative experimental results, as well as the ballast breaching process as represented by the simulation.     

Assessment of flood mitigation through riparian detention in response to a changing climate – a case study

Considering that urban areas may suffer more substantial losses than riparian farmlands during floods, diverting floodwater into riparian areas for temporal detention is expected to mitigate flood damage in downstream urban areas. In this study, an assessment has been conducted to evaluate the effect of flood mitigation through riparian detention in response to a changing climate in the Tou-Chien River basin of Taiwan. An integrated 1D–2D flow model was used to simulate the movement of flood wave in the main stream and the overbank flow inundating into the nearby lowlands. Based on the numerical simulation results, the flooding extents in the basin corresponding to different return periods of flood using existing flood prevention infrastructures were investigated. A detention strategy by lowering the levee along the riparian farmlands was proposed to avoid severe flooding in the densely populated urban areas of the basin. Research findings showed that the proposed detention measure can completely protect the downstream areas from overbank flooding when a flood having 20-yr period occurs, and can effectively alleviate the downstream flooding area from 27.4 to \(7.6\,\hbox {km}^{2}\) for a flood possessing 200-yr period.     

基于黎曼近似解的溃堤洪水一维-二维耦合数学模型

采用一维-二维耦合数学模型对溃堤洪水进行模拟,可以发挥两者优势,提高计算效率。将基于黎曼近似解Godunov格式的一维、二维水流数学模型通过堰流公式进行耦合,实现交界面的水力要素交互;一维、二维模型均采用中心形式的有限体积法求解,分别采用HLL格式和Roe格式计算界面通量,具有一致的空间同步性。通过经典算例验证了模型的可靠性和稳定性,应用耦合模型对1998年松花江干流胖头泡溃堤洪水进行了模拟计算,较好地模拟了溃堤洪水的演进过程与淹没范围,对200年一遇洪水的分洪效果进行了分析,为此区域的分洪利用及松花江中上游防洪调度提供参考依据。     

漫溃堤洪水联算全二维水动力模型及应用

为应对河道洪峰流量增大和漫溃堤长历时相伴发生的洪灾现象,借鉴全二维气相色谱理论提出全二维水动力模型概念,建立了模拟河道和灌区洪水演进的漫溃堤洪水联算全二维水动力模型,并采用Roe格式的近似Riemann解对界面通量进行数值求解。模型内通过漫溃堤堰流公式成功实现河道与灌区的耦联,考虑溃口展宽变化,加密处理河道网格,采用热启动与干湿水深理论对模型进行优化,并利用加大糙率法对村庄较为密集的地形进行优化处理,尽可能反应地面真实情况。将该模型应用于黄河宁蒙段河道与左右岸灌区的漫溃堤洪水演进模拟,计算结果合理可靠,流场分布均匀光滑,初步验证了模型的精度及可靠性,研究成果对河道溃决洪水的精细仿真模拟和该地区洪水风险分析决策具有重要意义。