Low b-value prior to the Indo-Myanmar subduction zone earthquakes and precursory swarm before the May 1995 M 6.3 earthquake

Some 455 events (m_b ⩾ 4.5) in the Indo-Myanmar subduction zone are compiled using the ISC/EHB/NEIC catalogues (1964–2011) for a systematic study of seismic precursors, b-value and swarm activity. Temporal variation of b-value is studied using the maximum likelihood method beside CUSUM algorithm. The b-values vary from 0.95 to 1.4 for the deeper (depth ⩾60 km) earthquakes, and from 0.85 to 1.3 for the shallower (depth <60 km) earthquakes. A sudden drop in the b-value, from 1.4 to 0.9, prior to the occurrence of larger earthquake(s) at the deeper depth is observed. It is also noted that the CUSUM gradient reversed before the occurrence of larger earthquakes. We further examined the seismicity pattern for the period 1988–1995 within a radius of 150 km around the epicentre (latitude: 24.96°N; longitude: 95.30°E) of a deeper event M 6.3 of May 6, 1995 in this subduction zone. A precursory swarm during January 1989 to July 1992 and quiescence during August 1992 to April 1995 are identified before this large earthquake. These observations are encouraging to monitor seismic precursors for the deeper events in this subduction zone.     

Investigation of ionospheric TEC precursors related to the M7.8 Nepal and M8.3 Chile earthquakes in 2015 based on spectral and statistical analysis

The assessment of social vulnerability is a requirement for understanding the risk of natural hazards. This paper calculates the social vulnerability index of geological disasters in China with the super-efficiency DEA (data envelopment analysis) model, carries out global and local autocorrelation tests for social vulnerability to geological disasters in each province in China and identifies the characteristics of its spatial distribution pattern. The results show the following. (1) China’s social vulnerability to geological disasters is relatively high and has obvious differences. It represents the pattern of a significant increase by degrees in social vulnerability to geological disasters from east to west and a significantly negative correlation relationship between the vulnerability level and the economic level. (2) Based on the comparative analysis of the mean values of the indexes and the social vulnerability index of geological disasters, it is found that the social vulnerability index of geological disasters in China is directly related to the regional exposure degree and reaction and recovery ability, among which the reaction and recovery ability has great effects on the social vulnerability index. (3) Most of the regions in China are in a high–high clustering area or a low–low clustering area; that is to say, the regions with similar social vulnerability to geological disasters represent the pattern of clustering.     

Four loss estimates for the Gorkha M7.8 earthquake,April 25, 2015, before and after it occurred

The number of fatalities in the Gorkha M7.8 earthquake of April 25, 2015, has been estimated at four different times as follows. In March 2005, the fatality estimate in this journal was 21,000–42,000 with an assumed magnitude of 8.1 (Wyss in Nat Hazard 34:305–314, 2005). Within hours after this earthquake, the estimated number of fatalities by QLARM was 2000–10,000 using a point source model and M7.9. Four hours later, the estimate was 20,000–100,000, based on a first approximation line source model and assuming children were in school. Children out of school, as this was a weekend day, reduced the fatalities by approximately a factor of two, but was not taken into account for the calculation. The final line source estimates based on M7.8 and M7.9 calculates 800–9300 and 1100–11,200 fatalities, respectively. The official count is about 10,000 fatalities. These estimates were performed using QLARM, a computer tool and world data set on the distribution of people in settlements and containing a model of the buildings present. It is argued here that the loss estimate 10 years before the event being within a factor of 2.1 of the eventual loss count is useful for mitigation planning. With varying quality of information on the source and the attenuation, the estimates of fatalities shortly after the earthquake are accurate enough to be useful for first responders. With full knowledge of the rupture properties and the regional attenuation of seismic waves, the numbers of human losses are estimated correctly.

     

Simulation of large earthquakes and its implications on earthquake insurance rates: a case study in Bursa region (Turkey)

Ground motion intensity parameters of past and potential earthquakes are required for a range of purposes including earthquake insurance practice. In regions with no or sparse earthquake recordings, most of the available methods generate only peak ground motion parameters. For cases where full ground motion time histories are required, simulations that consider fault rupture processes become necessary. In this study, a major novel use of simulated ground motions is presented in insurance premium calculations which also require ground motion intensity measures that are not always available through observations. For this purpose, potential earthquakes in Bursa are simulated using stochastic finite-fault simulation method with dynamic corner frequency model. To ensure simulations with reliable synthetic ground motions, input parameters are derived from regional data. Regional model parameters are verified by comparisons against the observations as well as ground motion prediction equations. Next, a potential large magnitude event in Bursa is simulated. Distribution of peak ground motion parameters and time histories at selected locations are obtained. From these parameters, the corresponding Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) are estimated. Later, these MMIs are used as the main ground motion parameter in damage probability matrices (DPM). Return period of the scenario earthquake is obtained from the previous regional seismic hazard studies. Finally, insurance rates for Bursa region are determined with implementation of two new approaches in the literature. The probability of the scenario event and the expected mean damage ratios (MDR) from the corresponding DPMs are used, and the results are compared to Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) rates. Results show that insurance premiums can be effectively computed using simulated ground motions in the absence of real data.     

Andean earthquakes triggered by the 2010 Maule,Chile (Mw 8.8) earthquake: Comparisons of geodetic,seismic and geologic constraints

The Maule, Chile, (M_w 8.8) earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered deformation events over a broad area, allowing investigation of stress redistribution within the upper crust following a mega-thrust subduction event. We explore the role that the Maule earthquake may have played in triggering shallow earthquakes in northwestern Argentina and Chile. We investigate observed ground deformation associated with the M_w 6.2 (GCMT) Salta (1450 km from the Maule hypocenter, 9 h after the Maule earthquake), M_w 5.8 Catamarca (1400 km; nine days), M_w 5.1 Mendoza (350 km; between one to five days) earthquakes, as well as eight additional earthquakes without an observed geodetic signal. We use seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations to characterize earthquake location, magnitude and focal mechanism, and characterize how the non-stationary, spatially correlated noise present in the geodetic imagery affects the accuracy of our parameter estimates. The focal mechanisms for the far-field Salta and Catamarca earthquakes are broadly consistent with regional late Cenozoic fault kinematics. We infer that dynamic stresses due to the passage of seismic waves associated with the Maule earthquake likely brought the Salta and Catamarca regions closer to failure but that the involved faults may have already been at a relatively advanced stage of their seismic cycle. The near-field Mendoza earthquake geometry is consistent with triggering related to positive static Coulomb stress changes due to the Maule earthquake but is also aligned with the South America-Nazca shortening direction. None of the earthquakes considered in this study require that the Maule earthquake reactivated faults in a sense that is inconsistent with their long-term behavior.     

Spatial characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2015 M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.8 (Gorkha) and M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.3 (Dolakha) earthquakes in Nepal

High magnitude earthquakes trigger numerous landslides and their occurrences are mainly controlled by terrain parameters. We created an inventory of 15,551 landslides with a total area of 90.2 km² triggered by the 2015 M_w 7.8 (Gorkha) and M_w 7.3 (Dolakha) earthquakes in Nepal, through interpretation of very high resolution satellite images (e.g. WorldView, Pleiades, Cartosat-1 and 2, Resourcesat-2). Our spatial analysis of landslide occurrences with ground acceleration, slope, lithology and surface defomation indicated ubiquitous control of steep slope on landslides with ground acceleration as the trigger. Spatial distribution of landslides shows increasing frequency away from the Gorkha earthquake epicentre up to 130 km towards east, dropping sharply thereafter, which is an abnormal phenomenon of coseismic landslides. Landslides are laterally concentrated in three zones which matches well with the seismic rupture evolution of Gorkha earthquake, as reported through teleseismic measurements.     

Upwarped high velocity mafic crust, subsurface tectonics and causes of intraplate Latur-Killari (M 6.2) and Koyna (M 6.3) earthquakes, India – A comparative study

A unique attempt is made to understand the genesis of intraplate seismicity in the Latur-Killari and Koyna seismogenic regions of India, through derived crustal structure by synthesizing active and passive seismic, magnetotelluric, gravity and heat flow data. It has indicated presence of relatively high velocity/density intermediate granulite (and amphibolite) facies rocks underneath the Deccan volcanic cover caused mainly due to a continuous geodynamic process of uplift and erosion since Precambrian times. These findings have been independently confirmed by detailed borehole geological, geochemical and mineralogical investigations. The crystalline basement rock is found to contain 2 wt% of carbon-di-oxide fluid components. The presence of geodynamic process, associated with thermal anomalies at subcrustal depths, is supported by a high mantle heat flow (29–36 mW/m²) beneath both regions, although some structural and compositional variations may exist as evidenced by P- and S-wave seismic velocities. We suggest that the stress, caused by ongoing uplift and a high mantle heat flow is continuously accumulating in this denser and rheologically stronger mafic crust within which earthquakes tend to nucleate. These stresses appear to dominate over and above those generated by the India–Eurasia collision. The role of fluids in stress generation, as advocated through earlier studies, appears limited.     

2008年5月12日汶川地震（Ms8.0）地表破裂带的分布特征

2008年5月12日14时28分,青藏高原东缘龙门山地区（四川汶川）发生了Ms8.0级地震。震后野外考察表明,5.12汶川地震发生在NE走向的龙门山断裂带上,该断裂带晚新生代以来的逆冲速率小于1mm/a,GPS观察结果表明其缩短速率小于3mm/a。这次5.12汶川地震造成了多条同震逆冲地表破裂带,总体长约275km,宽约15km,发震断裂机制主要为逆冲作用（由NW向SE逆冲）伴随右旋走滑。地表主破裂带沿龙门山断裂带的映秀—北川断裂发育,长约275km,笔者称为映秀—北川破裂带,破裂带具有逆冲兼右旋走滑性质。地表次级破裂带沿龙门山断裂带的前缘断裂安县—灌县断裂南段发育,长80km,笔者称为汉旺破裂带,破裂带基本为纯逆冲性质。在这两条破裂带之间发育两条更次一级的同震地表破裂带：一条长约20km呈NE走向的地表破裂带,笔者称为深溪沟破裂带,由于这条破裂带靠近主破裂带南段,并且与主破裂带变形特征一致,因此,笔者将深溪沟破裂带划归映秀—北川破裂带;另一条长约6km呈NW走向、由SW向NE逆冲并兼有左旋滑动的地表破裂带,笔者称为小鱼洞破裂带,它连接映秀—北川破裂带和汉旺破裂带,成为侧向断坡。另外,在灌县—安县断裂东侧的四川盆地内,由都江堰的聚源到江油发育一条NE向的沙土液化带,它可能是四川盆地西部深部盲断裂活动的结果。同震地表破裂带的分布特征表明,龙门山断裂带活动断裂具有强烈的逆冲作用并伴随较大的右旋走滑,断裂向四川盆地扩展。在龙门山断裂带上类似2008年5月12日Ms8.0汶川大地震的强震复发周期为3000～6000a。     

从苏门答腊-安达曼到日本东北:特大地震及其引发的超级海啸的启示

2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼MW9.1地震及印度洋超级海啸,以及2011年日本东北MW9.0地震及海啸与核泄漏,给人类带来了巨大的灾难。这两次灾难的接连发生充分暴露了迄今我们对于地震发生规律的认识水平还是很低的,启示我们需要继续加强对地震发生的规律性与地震预测预报的研究。在地震危险性评估中,要努力克服经验性方法的局限性,加强地应力测量以确定断层接近破裂的程度,更直接地估计地震危险性;要最大限度地运用地震、大地测量、地质、地貌等所有可资利用的资料,尽快将学术研究成果应用于防灾减灾实践。要重视不同观测资料的整合集成。要加强学科与学科之间的交叉渗透,自然科学与社会科学之间的合作交流,以及科学界与决策者和社会公众的相互沟通。要加强在海域对地震、海啸的多学科、多手段的监测工作,加强地震破裂过程复杂性的理论与应用研究,提高对地震、海啸(包括局地海啸)的监测、预测预报与预警水平。     

芦山M_S 7.0地震前地震活动性分析及区域地震活动水平参数I_(RTL)的应用

本文采用Region-Time-Length(RTL)方法分析在汶川M_S 8.0级地震引起的地震活动增强背景下芦山M_S 7.0地震前地震活动性变化,并提出了综合反映区域地震活动水平的参数IRTL。芦山地震前1年在震中和周边地区检测到地震活动平静异常,主要分布在龙门山断裂带南段1.5°N×2°E范围内,持续了近8个月,异常范围和异常程度呈现由小→大→小的特征。新提出的区域地震活动水平参数I_(RTL),早期在0值附近波动,于震前一年开始不断下降,降至波谷后回升到较低值,波谷后9个月发震。I_(RTL)在一定程度上为"识别"芦山地震发生危险性提供了参考。以上研究对了解芦山地震孕育过程提供了新的认识。     

Evaluations on the relation of RC building damages with structural parameters after May 19, 2011 Simav (Turkey) earthquake

An earthquake has struck Simav, Kutahya, located in the western part of Turkey on May 19, 2011. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the regional damage data and detailed investigation on a set of selected reinforced concrete buildings in Simav county center. The soil properties in Simav are examined in detail using multi-channel analysis of surface wave measurements, boreholes and laboratory test data. The damages are observed to be independent of soil conditions being hilly or plain, both in regional and Simav county center level. However, a slight relation is observed: as the soil period increases, so does the damage. The most damaged buildings are the four story buildings, resembling the case after some other earthquakes in Turkey. Regarding the detailed numerical evaluations on the building set, the properties highly correlated with seismic damage are investigated. Based on the obtained findings, it is concluded that the global building properties may not be enough to establish a strong relation with damage due to the local damages at the structural member level, especially for smaller seismic events.     

中国大陆科学钻探主孔流体地球化学异常与远强震的关系

2001年11月14日发生的昆仑山口西Ms8．1级地震和2004年12月26日发生的印度尼西亚苏门答腊Ms8．7级地震前后,中国大陆科学钻探（CCSD）主孔流体组成出现明显的异常。两次远强震前后的流体异常幅度很大,并具有相似的演化趋势。异常始于震前2—7天,He、N2／O2、He／Ar、N2／Ar为负异常,Ar／O2为正异常。远强震前后流体异常特征与CCSD附近小震前后流体异常特征具有明显的区别,表明昆仑山口西Ms8．1级地震前后和苏门答腊Ms8．7级地震前后的CCSD主孔流体异常可能与两次远强震相关。认为CCSD主孔中的He、N2、Ar是记录远强震的敏感载体,可能记录了震前长周期波传播至CCSD主孔时激发的流体变化,反映了震源区的应力变化,也可能反映了区域构造活动乃至地球深部构造活动产生的场兆、源兆信息。     

Subsidence due to crack closure and depressurization of hydrothermal systems: a case study from Mt Epomeo (Ischia Island,Italy)

Levelling surveys carried out between 1990 and 2003 on the Mt Epomeo resurgent block (Ischia Island) record negative dislocations on its northern and southern flanks with a maximum subsidence rate of 1.27 cm yr⁻¹. This deformation is not associated with the cooling, crystallization or lateral drainage of magma and cannot be explained by a pressure point or prolate ellipsoid source. Results from dislocation models and the available structural and geochemical information indicate that the subsidence is due to crack closure processes along two main ENE–WSW and E–W preexisting faults, which represent the preferred pathway of CO₂ degassing from the hydrothermal system located beneath Mt Epomeo. The monitoring of the dislocations and CO₂ flux along these faults could give useful information on the dynamics of the hydrothermal system.     

Source zones of the catastrophic Simushir earthquakes on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1) and the deep crust structure beneath the Middle Kuril segment

The data on catastrophic earthquakes with magnitudes of 8.3 and 8.1 that occurred in the Simushir Island area on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, respectively, were compared with the results of land-sea deep seismic studies by different methods (deep seismic sounding, the correlation method of refracted waves, the earthquake converted-wave method, the common mid-point) in the Central Kuril segment. The structure of the Earth’s crust and the hypocentral zones of these earthquakes were analyzed. It was established that the hypocenter of the main shock of the first earthquake was located at the bend of the seismofocal zone under the island slope of the trench on the outer side of the subsiding lithospheric plate in the rapidly rising granulite-basite (ìbasalticî) crustal layer, which, at depths of 7–15 km, replaced the granulite-gneiss layer. This was accompanied by an increase of the seismic wave velocity from 6.4 to 7.1 km/s. The focus of the second earthquake was located beneath the axis of the deep-sea trench. The aftershocks were concentrated in two bands 60–120 km wide that extend along the trench, as well as in the third zone orthogonal to the island arc. It was shown that the epicenters of the earthquakes are linked with regional faults. The main shock of the first earthquake (November 15, 2006) was interpreted as a thrust fault and the second one (January 13, 2007) was attributed to a normal fault.     

Evaluation of a nonlinear seismic geotechnical site response analysis method subjected to earthquake vibrations (case study: Kerman Province, Iran)

Equivalent static load and dynamic analyses methods are usually used for designing structures under and subjected to earthquake excitations. Estimation of site response from an earthquake is fundamental step to anticipate the possible damages and then to try to mitigate them. In this paper, the effect of nonlinearity on site response analyses summarized and evaluating ground surface response taking into account the local soil and subsurface soils properties for the proposed bridge over the river at Sirdjan Boulevard road subjected to earthquake vibration and provokes with assumption of rigid (viscoelastic) and elastic half space bedrock and quantify the site effect on the surface over a number of geotechnical areas has been notified. First, by field investigation, the required data were collected and by primary processing the acceptable data were selected. Then, in nonlinear analysis, for elastic and rigid half space bedrock, standard hyperbolic model was selected and executed, and then the results were compared to each other. The critical point of this work was to develop and use a computer code by the authors, named the “Abbas Converter”, with several advantages, such as work and quick installation, operating as a connecter function between the used softwares and generating the input data corresponding to defined format for them. Its output results can easily be exported to the other used softwares in this study. This code can make and render this study more easily than the previous softwares have done, and take over the encountered problem. This study clearly showed the applicability of the “Abbas Converter” for evaluation of site response with bedrock-type assumption on soil behavior under the earthquake excitations. The proposed scheme is used to analyze the ground motion data from the Bam earthquake in Kerman Province, Iran (2003, M_w 6.5).     

Motion on the Kaparelli fault (Greece) prior to the 1981 earthquake sequence determined from 36Cl cosmogenic dating

ABSTRACT In February and March 1981, three successive destructive earthquakes occurred at the eastern end of the Gulf of Corinth. The third shock (March, 4, Ms ≈ 6.4) ruptured the Kaparelli fault. About 40 cm of a limestone fault scarp was exhumed by the earthquake. Each major prehistoric earthquake has added new surface to this cumulative scarp exposing fresh material to cosmic-ray bombardment. Using ³⁶Cl cosmic ray exposure dating we have obtained the continuous exposure history for this 4–5-m-high limestone surface at two sites about 50 m apart. The results suggest that the Kaparelli fault has ruptured three times prior to 1981 at 20 ± 3 ka, 14.5 ± 0.5 ka and 10.5 ± 0.5 ka with slip amplitudes between 0.6 m and 2.1 m. The Kaparelli fault appears to have been inactive for 10 thousand years prior to the 1981 event.     

Public cognition and response to earthquake disaster: from the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan to the 2013 Mw6.6 Lushan earthquakes in Sichuan Province,China

Natural Hazards - China is one of the countries most affected by earthquakes. Improving public cognition and response to earthquake disaster (EDCR) is an effective means to reduce seismic risk and...