Extreme learning machine for the displacement prediction of landslide under rainfall and reservoir level

Landslide prediction is always the emphasis of landslide research. Using global positioning system GPS technologies to monitor the superficial displacements of landslide is a very useful and direct method in landslide evolution analysis. In this paper, an EEMD–ELM model [ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) based extreme learning machine (ELM) ensemble learning paradigm] is proposed to analysis the monitoring data for landslide displacement prediction. The rainfall data and reservoir level fluctuation data are also integrated into the study. The rainfall series, reservoir level fluctuation series and landslide accumulative displacement series are all decomposed into the residual series and a limited number of intrinsic mode functions with different frequencies from high to low using EEMD technique. A novel neural network technique, ELM, is employed to study the interactions of these sub-series at different frequency affecting landslide occurrence. Each sub-series extracted from accumulative displacement of landslide is forecasted respectively by establishing appropriate ELM model. The final prediction result is obtained by summing up the calculated predictive displacement value of each sub. The EEMD–ELM model shows the best accuracy comparing with basic artificial neural network models through forecasting the displacement of Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area of China.     

Classified real-time flood forecasting by coupling fuzzy clustering and neural network

This paper presented a new classified real-time flood forecasting framework by integrating a fuzzy clustering model and neural network with a conceptual hydrological model. A fuzzy clustering model was used to classify historical floods in terms of flood peak and runoff depth, and the conceptual hydrological model was calibrated for each class of floods. A back-propagation (BP) neural network was trained by using real-time rainfall data and outputs from the fuzzy clustering model. BP neural network provided a rapid on-line classification for real-time flood events. Based on the on-line classification, an appropriate parameter set of hydrological model was automatically chosen to produce real-time flood forecasting. Different parameter sets was continuously used in the flood forecasting process because of the changes of real-time rainfall data and on-line classification results. The proposed methodology was applied to a large catchment in Liaoning province, China. Results show that the classified framework provided a more accurate prediction than the traditional non-classified method. Furthermore, the effects of different index weights in fuzzy clustering were also discussed.     

基于BP人工神经网络的潜在震灾预测系统

结合人工神经网络自身的特性和地震灾害预测研究的特点,应用BP人工神经网络模型,建立了潜在地震灾害预测系统。利用大样本数据对网络进行了训练,形成了有识别和记忆功能的非线性预测系统。通过对网络的测试和检验,论证了该系统在预测潜在地震灾害上的可行性和有效性。同时,从测试精度出发,探讨了这种预测网络存在的不足,并给出了相应的改进建议。虽然提出的神经网络模型预测精度还有待提高,但其量化指标仍可为地震灾区政府抗震减灾工作提供参考。     

Comparison of static-feedforward and dynamic-feedback neural networks for rainfall–runoff modeling

A systematic comparison of two basic types of neural network, static and dynamic, is presented in this study. Two back-propagation (BP) learning optimization algorithms, the standard BP and conjugate gradient (CG) method, are used for the static network, and the real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) algorithm is used for the dynamic-feedback network. Twenty-three storm-events, about 1632 rainfall and runoff data sets, of the Lan-Yang River in Taiwan are used to demonstrate the efficiency and practicability of the neural networks for one hour ahead streamflow forecasting. In a comparison of searching algorithms for a static network, the results show that the CG method is superior to the standard BP method in terms of the efficiency and effectiveness of the constructed network's performance. For a comparison of the static neural network using the CG algorithm with the dynamic neural network using RTRL, the results show that (1) the static-feedforward neural network could produce satisfactory results only when there is a sufficient and adequate training data set, (2) the dynamic neural network generally could produce better and more stable flow forecasting than the static network, and (3) the RTRL algorithm helps to continually update the dynamic network for learning—this feature is especially important for the extraordinary time-varying characteristics of rainfall–runoff processes.     

地震黄土滑坡滑距预测的BP神经网络模型

地震滑坡的滑距与重力滑坡的滑距有着显著的不同,科学预测地震发生时黄土地区滑坡的滑动距离是合理评估黄土地区滑坡风险和减轻滑坡灾害的有效方式之一。基于海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡的400组野外调查数据,通过引入BP神经网络算法,论证了BP神经网络模型用于预测黄土地震滑坡滑距的适宜性和可行性;建立了地震诱发黄土滑坡滑距的BP神经网络预测模型,并通过67组数据进行了验证。BP神经网络算法和传统多元线性回归、多元非线性回归结果的对比显示,BP神经网络的预测更接近真实情况,具有较为理想的预测效果,可以用于黄土地震滑坡滑距的预测,并为圈定较为可靠的致灾范围提供依据。     

基于MATLAB的BP预测模型在地震前兆预测中的应用研究

依据神经网络理论,基于MATLAB的神经网络工具箱建立了一个BP神经网络预测模型,并通过对陕西省地震前兆数据的预测分析来检验模型的效果,实验结果证明该模型用于地震预测的可行性,操作简单灵活,直接面向用户。具有很好的应用价值。     

A neurofuzzy system to analyze liquefaction-induced lateral spread

Lateral spreads of liquefied granular soil masses have caused severe damages to many engineered structures. Accordingly, many empirical procedures have been developed from field-direct observations and from multiple regression analyses carried out on the database gathered from many case histories. The intricacy and nonlinearity of the underlying phenomena makes the above approaches somewhat unreliable for estimating liquefaction-induced lateral spreads. The database has inconsistencies and contradictions because of inevitable subjective interpretations and neural network approaches have been proposed for dealing with these.To overcome these difficulties in this paper a hybrid system named neurofuzzy, which profits from fuzzy and neural paradigms, is advanced. The resulting model called NEFLAS (NEuroFuzzy estimation of liquefaction induced LAteral Spread) is shown to yield a much improved forecasting than both multiple regression and neural network procedures. The corresponding software can be obtained from the first author.     

BP神经网络在地震综合预报中的应用

ＢＰ神经网络具有很强的非线性映射功能,它可以很好地反映震前出现的各类异常与未来地震震级及发震时间之间的较强非线性关系。在“地震预报智能决策支持系统”中使用了ＢＰ神经网络。介绍了该系统中的ＢＰ神经网络构成及其在地震预报中的应用,系统通过对实际震例的检验取得了较为理想的预报效果。     

Real-time probabilistic sediment concentration forecasting using integrated dynamic network and error distribution heterogeneity

Sediment forecasting at a dam site is important for the operation and management of water and sediment in a reservoir. However, the forecast results generally have some uncertainties, which may hinder the operation of the dam. In this study, a real-time sediment concentration probabilistic forecasting model is proposed based on a dynamic network model. Under this framework, the Elman neural network (ENN) and nonlinear auto-regressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network models were established for sediment concentration forecasting with different lead times. A hybrid algorithm, which combined the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm and real-time recurrent learning, was used to train the model. Using the aforementioned method, the sediment concentration was forecast for at the Sanmenxia Dam, China, and, subsequently, the forecast results were evaluated. Among the selected lead time, the results at 5 h exhibited the highest accuracy and practical significance. Compared with the ENN model, the sediment concentration peak error using the NARX neural network was reduced by 4.5%, and the sediment yield error was reduced by 0.043%. Therefore, the NARX neural network was selected as the deterministic sediment forecasting model. Additionally, the probability density function of the sediment concentration was derived based on the heterogeneity of the error distribution, and the sediment concentration interval, with different confidence levels, expected values, and median values, was forecast. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency for the sediment concentration, as forecasted based on the median value, was the highest (0.04 higher than that using a deterministic model), whereas the error of the sediment concentration peak and sediment yield remained unaltered. These results indicated the accuracy and superiority of the proposed real-time sediment probabilistic forecasting hybrid model.     

An approximation method for solving the inverse MTS problem with the use of neural networks

The work develops the approximation approach to solving the inverse MTS problem with the use of neural networks. The inverse problem is considered in model classes of parametrized geoelectric structures, whose electric conductivity is controlled by a few hundreds of macroparameters (N ∼ 300). An approximate inverse operator of the problem is constructed for each model class as a neural network, whose coefficients are determined in the process of training on a representative sample of standard examples of forward problem solutions. The problem of determination of the model class of geolectric structures corresponding to the presented input MT data is solved with the use of the neural network classifier constructed for the available set of model classes of structures. Regularizing factors and errors of the neural network method are analyzed. The operation of the algorithm is illustrated by examples of the 2-D inversion of synthetic MT data.     

A Modified Neural Network for Improving River Flow Prediction/Un Réseau de Neurones Modifié pour Améliorer la Prévision de L'Écoulement Fluvial

Abstract

Artificial neural network (ANN) models provide huge potential for simulating nonlinear behaviour of hydrological systems. However, the potential of ANN is yet to be fully exploited due to the problems associated with improving the model generalization performance. Generalization refers to the ability of a neural network to correctly process input data that have not been used for calibrating the neural network model. In the hydrological context, better generalization performance implies higher precision of forecasting. The primary objectives of this study are to explore new measures for improving the generalization performance of an ANN-based rainfall–runoff model, and to evaluate the applicability of the new measures. A modified neural network model (entitled goal programming (GP) neural network) for modelling the rainfall–runoff process has been developed, in which three enhancements are made as compared to the widely-used backpropagation (BP) network. The three enhancements are (a) explicit integration of hydrological prior knowledge into the neural network learning; (b) incorporation of a modified training objective function; and (c) reduction of network sensitivity to input errors. Seven watersheds across a range of climatic conditions and watershed areas in China were selected for examining the alternative networks. The results demonstrate that the GP consistently outperformed the BP both in the calibration and verification periods and three proposed measures yielded improvement of performance.     

Indian summer monsoon rainfall prediction using artificial neural network

Forecasting the monsoon temporally is a major scientific issue in the field of monsoon meteorology. The ensemble of statistics and mathematics has increased the accuracy of forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) up to some extent. But due to the nonlinear nature of ISMR, its forecasting accuracy is still below the satisfactory level. Mathematical and statistical models require complex computing power. Therefore, many researchers have paid attention to apply artificial neural network in ISMR forecasting. In this study, we have used feed-forward back-propagation neural network algorithm for ISMR forecasting. Based on this algorithm, we have proposed the five neural network architectures designated as BP1, BP2, $\ldots, $ … , BP5 using three layers of neurons (one input layer, one hidden layer and one output layer). Detail architecture of the neural networks is provided in this article. Time series data set of ISMR is obtained from Pathasarathy et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224 1994) (1871–1994) and IITM (http://www.tropmet.res.in/, 2012) (1995–2010) for the period 1871–2010, for the months of June, July, August and September individually, and for the monsoon season (sum of June, July, August and September). The data set is trained and tested separately for each of the neural network architecture, viz., BP1–BP5. The forecasted results obtained for the training and testing data are then compared with existing model. Results clearly exhibit superiority of our model over the considered existing model. The seasonal rainfall values over India for next 5 years have also been predicted.     

基于IGA算法的电阻率神经网络反演成像研究

为满足地球物理资料反演解释的高精度、快速、稳定的要求,本文结合免疫遗传算法寻优速度快和BP神经网络反演不依赖初始模型等优点,设计了一种将BP神经网络和免疫遗传算法进行有机结合的全局优化反演策略,并将该策略成功地应用于二维高密度电法数据反演.利用免疫遗传算法(Immune Genetic Algorithm,简称IGA)对神经网络的反演参数进行同步优化,提高了电阻率反演的精度.仿真和实验结果验证设计的全局优化反演策略取得了较好的效果,通过与线性反演方法和BP法以及遗传神经网络法等反演方法进行比较,得出该方法具有反演精度更高,反演时间更短等显著优势的结论.     

砂土地震液化的神经网络预测

BP网络具有很强的非线性映射和自适应学习功能 ,可用于模式识别和预测评估等领域 .在简要分析BP算法的基础上 ,选取砂土的平均粒径 (d5 0 /mm)、相对密度(Dr/% )、标准贯入击数 (N63 .5 /击 )、上覆有效压力 (σv/kPa)、地震烈度 (I0 )作为指标 ,应用BP神经网络的理论与方法 ,预测砂土在地震作用下液化的可能性 ,取得了较好的预测效果 .说明将BP网络用于沙土液化预测是可行的 .     

基于BP神经网络模型的多层砖房震害预测方法

针对传统的基于地震烈度的建筑物震害预测方法的不足,本文以地震动峰值加速度作为建筑物震害预测的地震动指标,结合几次大地震中多层砖房的震害实例,提出了一种基于BP神经网络模型的建筑物震害预测方法,模型的输入为反映结构抗震性能的各类物理参数,输出为给定地震动峰值加速度下建筑物破坏状态的概率。研究表明:基于BP网络模型的多层砖房的震害预测结果与震害实例的实际情况比较吻合,本文的思路和方法可推广于其他不同类型的建筑结构的震害预测。     

基于遗传神经网络的大地电磁反演

为进一步提高大地电磁非线性反演的稳定性、运算效率及准确度,将遗传神经网络算法引入大地电磁反演.首先针对大地电磁二维地电模型建立BP（Back Propagation）神经网络基本框架进行学习训练,网络输入为已知地电模型的视电阻率参数,输出为该地电模型参数;再利用遗传算法对神经网络学习训练过程进行优化,计算出多种地电模型网络连接权值和阈值的最优解;最后将最优连接权值和阈值对未知模型进行反演测试,网络输入为未知地电模型的视电阻率参数,输出为该地电模型参数.模型实验表明：遗传神经网络算法充分结合了遗传算法的全局寻优性和神经网络的局部寻优性,相比单一神经网络算法,在网络学习训练中提高了解的收敛成功率和计算速度,在反演测试中能更准确地逼近真实模型.将遗传神经网络算法与最小二乘正则化反演进行对比,理论模型和实测数据都验证了遗传神经网络算法在大地电磁反演中的可行性和有效性.     

BP神经网络的训练样本集容量

本文试图解释用ＢＰ神经网络解界面反问题时效果不佳的原因。文中首先从信息量的角度提出了ＢＰ神经网络训练本集容量的概念，给出了它的定义及组织训练样本集时应遵循的原则和方法。对于如何用ＢＰ神经网络解界面反问题，给出了其基本步骤，并根据上述训练样本集容量的概念及界面反总理的特殊性，给出了组织界面反问题训练样本集的方法。     

River flow time series prediction with a range-dependent neural network

Abstract

Artificial neural networks provide a promising alternative to hydrological time series modelling. However, there are still many fundamental problems requiring further analyses, such as structure identification, parameter estimation, generalization, performance improvement, etc. Based on a proposed clustering algorithm for the training pairs, a new neural network, namely the range-dependent neural network (RDNN) has been developed for better accuracy in hydrological time series prediction. The applicability and potentials of the RDNN in daily streamflow and annual reservoir inflow prediction are examined using data from two watersheds in China. Empirical comparisons of the predictive accuracy, in terms of the model efficiency R² and absolute relative errors (ARE), between the RDNN, back-propagation (BP) networks and the threshold auto-regressive (TAR) model are made. The case studies demonstrated that the RDNN network performed significantly better than the BP network, especially for reproducing low-flow events.     

Neural networks in auroral data assimilation

Data assimilation is an essential step for improving space weather forecasting by means of a weighted combination between observational data and data from a mathematical model. In the present work data assimilation methods based on Kalman filter (KF) and artificial neural networks are applied to a three-wave model of auroral radio emissions. A novel data assimilation method is presented, whereby a multilayer perceptron neural network is trained to emulate a KF for data assimilation by using cross-validation. The results obtained render support for the use of neural networks as an assimilation technique for space weather prediction.     

多级BP神经网络石油测井信号分类器

本文提出了一种利用多级ＢＰ神经网络进行石油测井信号分类的新方法．介绍了用多级ＢＰ网络处理测井信号的分类器算法和网络结构，并给出了针对理论模拟信号的分类结果及针对实际模型井信号的分类结果，其正确率可达９０％以上．