Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin

Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated, the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and stream-flow was detected, and the possible association between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years, the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%, nearly 1℃rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s, and a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s, the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and     

Evapotranspiration and its main controlling mechanism over the desert riparian forests in the lower Tarim River Basin

Evapotranspiration(ET) and its controlling mechanism over the desert riparian forests in arid regions are the important scientific basis for the water resources managements of the lower reaches of the inland rivers of China. Nearly three years of continuous measurements of surface ET, soil water content at different depths and groundwater table over a typical Tamarix spp. stand and a typical Populus euphratica stand were conducted in the lower reach of the Tarim River. The ET seasonal trends in the growing season were controlled by plant phenology, and ET in non-growing season was weak. The diurnal variations of ET resulting from the comprehensive effects of all atmospheric factors were significantly related with reference ET. The spatial pattern of ET was determined by vegetation LAI, more vegetation coverage, more ET amount. Groundwater is the water source of surface ET, and the soil water in shallow layers hardly took part in the water exchange in the groundwatersoil-plant-air system. The temporal processes of ET over the Tamarix stand and the Populus stand were similar, but the water consumption of the well-grown Populus euphratica was higher than that of the well-grown Tamarix spp. Further analysis indicates that plant transpiration accounts for most of the surface ET, with soil evaporation weak and negligible; groundwater table is a crucial factor influencing ET over the desert riparian forests, groundwater influences the processes and amounts of ET by controlling the growth and spatial distribution of desert riparian forests; quantifying the water stress of desert riparian forests using groundwater table is more appropriate, rather than soil water content. Based on the understanding of ET and water movements in the groundwater-soil-plant-air system, a generalized framework expressing the water cycling and its key controlling mechanism in the lower reaches of the inland rivers of China is described, and a simple model to estimate water requirements of the desert riparian forests is presented.     

Water resources and ecological conditions in the Tarim Basin

Temporal sequential analyses of the hydrological observational data in the Tarim Ba-sin over the last forty years revealed an annual increase of 2 × 107m3 in the water quantities at thethree headstreams of the upper courses and an annual decrease of 3 × 107m3 in the water flowfrom Alaer, which is on the upper main stream. A prediction of the trends indicates that there canbe severe situations under which intermittent water interceptions occur. By means of approximateestimations on vegetative water consumption through phreatic evaporation combined with a quotaassessment, the ecological water demands required to maintain the ecological environment in themainstream area over the three different targeted years of 2005, 2010 and 2030 are defined asstanding at 31.86× 108m3, 36.27× 108m3 and 41.04× 108m3 respectively. Ecological fragility in-dexes are established on the basis of the selection of environmental sensitivity factors. Rationalevaluations give proof that the lower reaches of the mainstream have already turned into zoneswhere their ecological environments are gravely damaged. Multi-objective optimization should beconducted and protective schemes be framed within the threshold limits of the bearing capacitiesof water resources and the environment.     

Water resources and ecological conditions in the Tarim Basin

Temporal sequential analyses of the hydrological observational data in the Tarim Basin over the last forty years revealed an annual increase of 2× 10⁷m³ in the water quantities at the three headstreams of the upper courses and an annual decrease of 3 × 10⁷m³ in the water flow from Alaer, which is on the upper main stream. A prediction of the trends indicates that there can be severe situations under which intermittent water interceptions occur. By means of approximate estimations on vegetative water consumption through phreatic evaporation combined with a quota assessment, the ecological water demands required to maintain the ecological environment in the mainstream area over the three different targeted years of 2005, 2010 and 2030 are defined as standing at 31.86 × 10⁸m³, 36.27 × 10⁸m³ and 41.04 × 10⁸m³ respectively. Ecological fragility indexes are established on the basis of the selection of environmental sensitivity factors. Rational evaluations give proof that the lower reaches of the mainstream have already turned into zones where their ecological environments are gravely damaged. Multi-objective optimization should be conducted and protective schemes be framed within the threshold limits of the bearing capacities of water resources and the environment     

Periodic changes of stream flow in the last 40 years in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang, China

Using the annual runoff series for the last 40 years from the Tarim River Basin, their periodic properties were analysed and their future trends predicted. Runoff data were collected at five hydrological gauging stations in the three main branches of the Tarim River. An extrapolation method and variance analysis were used to identify periods in annual runoff, and a trend superposition model to predict future changes. Results show that, there is a common period of 17 years in annual runoff changes for all three branches, with Hotan River showing an additional period of 10 years. Based on this trend, it is suggested that the annual runoff of the Tarim River should decrease in the period of 2006–2008, but increase in year 2009, and the flow may possibly begin to decrease significantly in year 2010. The long term trend of runoff in Tarim Basin has followed the global prediction of GCMs, i.e. began to increase in accordance with global increase of air temperature and precipitation in 1990. However, it has shown a local feature of uneven changes among the head streams in the same basin, which needs to be further investigated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multistage simulation-based optimization model for water resources management in Tarim River Basin, China

In this study, a multistage simulation-based optimization model is developed for supporting water resources management under uncertainty. The system couples a lumped rainfall-runoff model with an inexact multistage stochastic program, where its random parameter is provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. Moreover, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. The developed model can also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over a multistage context. The developed model is applied to a real case of planning water resources management in Tarim River Basin, which is one of the most serious water-shortage regions of China. A variety of policies associated with different water-allocation targets are analyzed. The results are helpful for decision makers identifying optimal water-allocation plans for mitigating the conflict among ecological protection, economic development, and regional sustainability.     

Jinning granodiorite and diorite deeply concealed in the central Tarim Basin

The Tarkelamagan Desert almost wholly covers the Tarim Basin, therefore, existing geological reports of the basin mainly concentrate on outcrops in the sur-rounding areas. Data of fundamental geology of the interior of the basin are rare[1―8]. The 7200-m-deep Well Tacan 1 (TC1 for short), the deepest well in China, is located on the Tazhong Lower Uplift of the Central Rise in the central desert of the Tarim Basin (Fig. 1(a)). It reveals a rather complete succession in the region, inclu…     

Mercury concentration in natural gas and its distribution in the Tarim Basin

Here I collected natural gas samples from 41 industrial gas wells in the Tarim Basin,and studied the mercury distribution in the area.My data show that there is certain regularity in the distribution of mercury in the Tarim Basin.Generally,the mercury concentration is high at the edge of the basin and low in the central basin.The highest mercury concentration occurs in the Southwest Depression,ranging from 15428.5 to 296763.0ng/m3 with an average of 156095.7ng/m3,followed by the Kuqa Depression ranging from 15.0 to 56964.3ng/m3 with an average of 11793.7ng/m3,and the Hade oil and gas field in the North Depression has the lowest mercury concentration ranging from 17.7 to 3339.5ng/m3 with an average of 1678.6ng/m3.The mercury concentrations in the natural gases of different structural units are various,with the highest mercury concentration in the zone of strong structural activity of Southwest Depression.It is profitable of Hg accumulation in the self sourced and self accumulated gas reservoirs or volcanic existence;in contrast,the low Hg concentration exists in the secondary gas reservoir.The mercury concentration in the natural gas generated under continental depositional environment is higher than that in marine gas.Therefore,the mercury concentration in the natural gases is constrained by gas genesis,depositional environment of source rocks,tectonic activity,and volcanic activity,and the tectonic activity is the main factor for the mercury concentration in the natural gas,followed by volcanic activity and depositional environments.     

Simulation of rainfall-runoff and watershed convergence process in the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin,July 2002

The watershed flow concentration scheme in the distributed hydrology-soil- vegetation model (DHSVM) is coupled with the mesoscale atmospheric model MM5 version 3.5, in which the Oregen States University land surface model (OSULSM) was involved. The flood event which happened in July 2002 in the upper reaches of Heihe river basin is simulated and the surface flow convergence process is shown with this coupled model. It has been concluded that times water head reaches each place of the basin are different. Water amount at each point is split-flow proportionally as the drops in elevation between it and neighbor points. Large part of the water amount pass away in greater slope direction and small part pass away in smaller slope one. Adding of the slope convergence makes the atmospheric model redistributes the surface water laterally.

     

Segmentations of foreland belts and their tectonic mechanism in the Southwest Tarim Basin

Many geologists focus on the foreland structures, co-relationship between shallow and deep structures and their dynamics between intra-continent orogenies and foreland basin in recent years[1―17]. The intra-plate collision and deformed area of West Kunlun-Pamirand Southern Tianshan become the natural lab of this studies and there are many new developments con-cerned with the geometry and kinemics of foreland thrusting, back-thrusting and triangle zones[3―14]. Many types of foreland thrusti…     

Simulation of rainfall-runoff and watershed convergence process in the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin, July 2002

The watershed flow concentration scheme in the distributed hydrology-soil- vegetation model (DHSVM) is coupled with the mesoscale atmospheric model MM5 version 3.5, in which the Oregen States University land surface model (OSULSM) was involved. The flood event which happened in July 2002 in the upper reaches of Heihe river basin is simulated and the surface flow convergence process is shown with this coupled model. It has been concluded that times water head reaches each place of the basin are different. Water amount at each point is split-flow proportionally as the drops in elevation between it and neighbor points. Large part of the water amount pass away in greater slope direction and small part pass away in smaller slope one.Adding of the slope convergence makes the atmospheric model redistributes the surface water laterally.     

塔里木盆地主要断裂的地球物理特征及与天然地震的关系

新疆塔里木盆地是中国最大的内陆盆地,地质构造上是周围被许多深大断裂所限制的稳定地块.塔里木盆地的地震发生是盆地与造山带耦合俯冲的结果,与盆地周缘的活动性深大断裂相关,是盆地扩张使盆地与山脉的结合带不断受到挤压产生脆性破裂引起的,构成盆地中部为稳定区、而盆地周围山脉为地震频繁区的格局.塔里木盆地的活动断裂主要发育于山体与盆地的过渡地带,而近两年这6次规模比较大的地震也都发生在西昆仑和南天山的山前俯冲带,据以往统计资料,塔里木盆地内所有地震数据中的85%是分布在塔西南和西南天山的南缘区域.本文通过分析认为,塔里木盆地地震的发生与大型的断裂构造相关.断裂构造在重力、磁力等地球物理场上特征明显,深部结构又容易被大地电磁测深、地震测深等物探方法揭示.通过综合地球物理方法,可以有效地研究断裂的平面展布特征及深部结构,对于研究天然地震带的展布和地震发生机制,具有一定的意义.     

Hydrocarbon accumulation and distribution in lower Paleozoic carbonates in Tarim Basin

Carbonates are the main exploratory layers in Tarim Paleozoic cratonic basin. With abundant oil and gas sources, the lower Paleozoic carbonate in which traps develop over a large area and at a high amplitude, has the basic condition to form large oil and (or) gas fields. Three types of petroleum accumulation models, which consist of buried-hill petroleum accumulation in the high part of the uplift, inner structure petroleum accumulation in the pitching part of the uplift and fault horst petroleum accumulation on the border of the uplift, are found in the lower Paleozoic carbonates. Petroleum occurrence is mainly controlled by paleo-uplift, fault, unconformity and fracture system. The pitching part of the paleo-uplift and the fault belts on the paleo-uplift are the favorable exploratory areas.     

塔里木盆地航磁场分析与磁源体结构

本文研究塔里木盆地区域磁异常图的反演及磁源体结构.由于众多异常的叠加和反演固有的多解性,区域磁异常图的准确解释是非常困难的.三维欧拉反褶积是一种确定地质体位置和埋藏深度的自动定量反演方法,比较适用于计算区域磁异常源的埋藏深度.由于大型克拉通沉积盆地地层具有上新下老的规律性,将磁异常源分解为三个深度层次,圈定它们各自的分布区域,便可将它们与形成的地质作用及时代联系起来,为准确解释区域磁异常图提供可靠的依据.本文应用三维欧拉反褶积反演方法,计算出的塔里木盆地深度为2~5 km、5~10 km、10~20 km三个等级的磁异常源,它们与形成的地质作用及时代分别为: 中生代构造运动,海西期玄武岩侵位和太古代结晶基底的变质作用;圈定了它们各自的分布区域.     

Using geochemical tracing system to identify new types of gas sources in marine strata of the Hotan River Gas Field in the Tarim Basin

There are natural gas sources of various modes of occurrence in superimposed basins. Besides the conventional kerogen and ancient oil reservoir, dispersed soluble organic matter (DSOM) is an important direct gas source. Because of its wide distribution, great potential to generate gas and proneness to crack under catalysis, DSOM is an important type of gas source in the highly evolved zones in marine strata. Through the geological and geochemical analysis that reflects the long-period evolvement and multipl...     

Porous-grain-upper-boundary model and its application to Tarim Basin carbonates

Most of the carbonates in the Tarim Basin in northwest China are low-porosity and low-permeability rocks. Owing to the complexity of porosity in carbonates, conventional rockphysics models do not describe the relation between velocity and porosity for the Tarim Basin carbonates well. We propose the porous-grain-upper-boundary (PGU) model for estimating the relation between velocity and porosity for low-porosity carbonates. In this model, the carbonate sediments are treated as packed media of porous elastic grains, and the carbonate pores are divided into isolated and connected pores The PGU model is modified from the porous-grain-stiff-sand (PGST) model by replacing the critical porosity with the more practical isolated porosity. In the implementation, the effective elastic constants of the porous grains are calculated by using the differential effective medium (DEM) model. Then, the elastic constants of connected porous grains in dry rocks are calculated by using the modified upper Hashin-Shtrikman bound. The application to the Tarim carbonates shows that relative to other conventional effective medium models the PGU model matches the well log data well.     

Potential petroleum sources and exploration directions around the Manjar Sag in the Tarim Basin

Since the discovery of the Tahe oilfield, it has been controversial on whether the main source rock is in the Cambrian or Middle-Upper Ordovician strata. In this paper, it is assumed that the crude oil from the Wells YM 2 and TD 2 was derived from the Middle-Upper Ordovician and Cambrian source rocks, respectively. We analyzed the biomarkers of the crude oil, asphalt-adsorbed hydrocarbon and saturated hydrocarbon in bitumen inclusions from the Lunnan and Hade areas in the North Uplift of the Tarim Basin. Results show that the ratios of tricyclic terpane C₂₁/C₂₃ in the crude oil, asphalt-adsorbed hydrocarbon and saturated hydrocarbon in bitumen inclusions are less than 1.0, indicating that they might be from Upper Ordovician source rocks; the ratios of C₂₈/(C₂₇+C₂₈+C₂₉) steranes in the saturated hydrocarbon from reservoir bitumen and bitumen inclusions are higher than 25, suggesting that they might come from the Cambrian source rocks, however, the ratios of C₂₈/(C₂₇+C₂₈+C₂₉) steranes in oil from the North Uplift are less than 25, suggesting that they might be sourced from the Upper Ordovician source rocks. These findings demonstrate that the sources of crude oil in the Tarim Basin are complicated. The chemical composition and carbon isotopes of Ordovician reservoired oil in the Tarim Basin indicated that the crude oil in the North Uplift (including the Tahe oilfield) and Tazhong Depression was within mixture areas of crude oil from the Wells YM 2 and TD 2 as the end members of the Cambrian and Middle-Upper Ordovician sourced oils, respectively. This observation suggests that the crude oil in the Ordovician strata is a mixture of oils from the Cambrian and Ordovician source rocks, with increasing contribution from the Cambrian source rocks from the southern slope of the North Uplift to northern slope of the Central Uplift of the Tarim Basin. Considering the lithology and sedimentary facies data, the spatial distribution of the Cambrian, Middle-Lower Ordovician and Upper Ordovician source rocks was reconstructed on the basis of seismic reflection characteristics, and high-quality source rocks were revealed to be mainly located in the slope belt of the basin and were longitudinally developed over the maximum flooding surface during the progressive-regressive cycle. Affected by the transformation of the tectonic framework in the basin, the overlays of source rocks in different regions are different and the distribution of oil and gas was determined by the initial basin sedimentary structure and later reformation process. The northern slope of the Central Uplift-Shuntuo-Gucheng areas would be a recent important target for oil and gas exploration, since they have been near the slope area for a long time.     

Potential evapotranspiration changes in Lancang River Basin and Yarlung Zangbo River Basin,southwest China

ABSTRACT

Understanding potential evapotranspiration (PET) changes under climate change is of great importance for hydrological research. The trends of PET changes and their driving forces were investigated in the Lancang (LRB) and Yarlung Zangbo (YRB) river basins, southwest China, using diagnosis graphs and the Mann-Kendall test. Analysis of variance was applied to examine the contribution of different climatic variables to PET. The results show that: (i) there was a statistically significant increase in PET in the period of 1957–2015 in the LRB, while it showed a markedly decreasing trend in the YRB; (ii) PET in both basins is fairly sensitive to wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation and maximum air temperature, and the interactions between wind speed and relative humidity are also important; and (iii) the increase in PET in the LRB is due mainly to the increase in maximum air temperature and decrease in relative humidity, while declines in wind speed and solar radiation are the main reasons for the decrease in PET in the YRB.