燃气管网抗震分析中的阀隔离区搜索算法

破坏性地震发生后,燃气管网系统应急抢修工作的首要步骤是将发生破坏并导致燃气泄漏的管段与正常管段隔离,然后才能开展修复作业.对于大型复杂网络系统,由于管段破坏所形成的需要与系统主体分离的隔离区不能仅凭人工进行判断,必须依靠搜索算法才能确定各个隔离区.本文对阀隔离区搜索方法进行了研究,给出了一个搜索算法,编制了计算软件,并对一假设管网进行了算例分析,验证了算法和软件的可靠性.     

长输油气管道地震监测预警的应用与技术

在最近40年的管道工业中,地震灾害导致了大量管道破坏事故.长输管道地震监测预警的目的不是震前预报,而是震后紧急速报,为管道震后决策和紧急救援提供依据.介绍了地震监测预警系统在阿拉斯加管道、冀宁管道、东京煤气公司等管道上的典型应用,对地震监测预警的硬件和软件技术手段进行了分析.硬件手段有地震动参数监测、断层位移监测、管道泄漏监测以及数据传输;软件手段包括地震动参数处理、自动报警,以及灾情评估与管道维修咨询.     

地下管道工程震害分析

地下管道工程的震害及功能失效对正常社会生产及生活有很大影响,地下管道工程抗震研究一直受到人们的高度重视。本文基于近10年来中国大陆发生的几次地震中收集到的地下管道工程震害资料,对各种管道震害现象进行了分析,总结了目前我国地下管道工程的震害特点,同时,对近年来我国几个典型城市地下管道工程震害预测结果进行了分析,得到了几点有益的启示。我国部分城镇地下管道的抗震能力不足,应采取有力措施予以增强。     

燃气管网地震破坏快速评估方法研究

针对燃气管网基础资料难以获取的实际情况,利用有限数据开展燃气管网地震破坏的快速评估方法研究。基于历史震害统计分析结果,修订了燃气管网地震破坏等级划分方法;当燃气管网震害率模型不完备时,提出了类比供水管网震害率模型获得燃气管网震害率模型的方法。以东部发达城市上海市和西部石油城市新疆克拉玛依市为列,评估了2个城市在不同地震影响烈度下燃气管网的地震破坏情况,评估结果完全符合地震现场调查结论。     

Seismic hazard and uncertainty analysis of the Taiwan area

The objectives of this paper are (1) to obtain estimates on the effect of uncertainties of the hazard model, and (2) to evaluate the seismic hazard in Taiwan for structural analysis and design purposes. The seismic hazard in the Taiwan area is presented in terms of an iso-acceleration map. Such a map is developed for return periods of peak ground acceleration of 225 years and 475 years. The contour map of b-values and mean occurence rates for this region is also presented. Uncertainty analyses of model parameters in hazard analysis are concentrated on the analysis of dispersion of PGA values and the probabilistic modeling of stationary and nonstationary Poisson models of occurrences. Th e overall results are considered to be conservative since for most uncertainty analyses the more conservative values are used.     

Recordings and occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents in the Finnish natural gas pipeline network

A project implemented to study the effects of space weather on the Finnish natural gas pipeline was started in August 1998. The aims of the project were (1) to derive a model for calculating geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) and pipe-to-soil (P/S) voltages in the Finnish natural gas pipeline, (2) to perform measurements of GIC and P/S voltages in the pipeline and (3) to derive statistical predictions for the occurrences of GIC and P/S voltages at different locations in the pipeline network.GIC and P/S voltage were recorded at a compressor station. The GIC measurement was made with two magnetometers, one right above the pipe, and another at the Nurmijärvi Geophysical Observatory about 30 km southwest. The largest GIC since November 1998 has been 30 A. The P/S voltage recording was stopped in May 1999, but GIC is still measured.GIC statistics were derived based on the recordings of the geomagnetic field at Nurmijärvi. The geoelectric field was calculated by using the plane wave model. This field was input to the general pipeline model resulting in the distribution of currents and P/S voltages at selected points in the pipeline. As could be expected, the largest P/S voltage variations occur at the ends of the pipeline network, while the largest GIC flow in the middle parts.     

Seismic performance sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of gravity dams

Uncertainties in structural engineering are often arising from the modeling assumptions and errors, or from variability in input loadings. A practical approach for dealing with them is to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the framework of stochastic and probabilistic methods. These analyses can be statically and dynamically performed through nonlinear static pushover and IDA techniques, respectively. Of the existing structures, concrete gravity dams are infrastructures which may encounter many uncertainties. In this research, probabilistic analysis of the seismic performance of gravity dams is presented. The main characteristics of the nonlinear tensile behavior of mass concrete, along with the intensity of earthquake excitations are considered as random variables in the probabilistic analysis. Using the tallest non‐overflow monolith of the Pine Flat gravity dam as a case study, its response under static and dynamic situations is reliably examined utilizing different combinations of parameters in the material and the seismic loading. The sensitivity analysis reveals the relative importance of each parameter independently. It will be shown that the undamaged modulus of elasticity and tensile strength of mass concrete have more significant roles on the seismic resistance of the dam than the ultimate inelastic tensile strain. In order to propagate the parametric uncertainty to the actual seismic performance of the dam, probabilistic simulation methods such as Monte Carlo simulation with Latin hypercube sampling, and approximate moment estimation techniques will be used. The final results illustrate the possibility of using a mean‐parameter dam model to estimate the mean seismic performance of the dam. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地下输液管道动力反应分析

本文利用有限元方法,考虑介质、埋设管线及土壤的相互作用,进行了埋地管线动特性和地震动响应研究,得出了土特性、管内液体流动对系统固有频率及动力响应影响的若干初步结论。     

Nonlinear stochastic seismic analysis of buried pipeline systems

In this paper, a nonlinear stochastic seismic analysis program for buried pipeline systems is developed on the basis of a probability density evolution method (PDEM). A finite element model of buried pipeline systems subjected to seismic wave propagation is established. The pipelines in this model are simulated by 2D beam elements. The soil surrounding the pipelines is simulated by nonlinear distributed springs and linear distributed springs along the axial and horizontal directions, respectively. The joints between the segmented pipes are simulated by nonlinear concentrated springs. Thereafter, by considering the basic random variables of ground motion and soil, the PDEM is employed to capture the stochastic seismic responses of pipeline systems. Meanwhile, a physically based method is employed to simulate the random ground motion field for the area where the pipeline systems are located. Finally, a numerical example is investigated to validate the proposed program.     

基于GIS的地下管网抗震分析系统

本文提供了一个地下管道震害快速预测方法,给出了供水管网和供气管网地震影响范围判定分析方法以及关键环节判定方法,完成了一个基于Arc View GIS的多功能的地下管网抗震分析系统的研制。     

Parameter identification and uncertainty analysis for variably saturated flow

This study investigates variably saturated groundwater flow in the vicinity of a sanitary landfill. A Conjugate gradient method with an objective function that includes both pressure terms and travel time terms is used for parameter identification. The uncertainty in calculated travel time is estimated using both a moment method and a Latin hypercube direct parameter sampling method. The adjoint operator technique is an important component of both the parameter identification procedure and the moment method uncertainty analysis.     

近断层强震记录基线校正及不确定性分析

采用汶川地震近断层强震记录,分析了近断层记录基线校正的原则、不同基线校正方法的特点以及基线校正的不确定性因素.根据基线校正原则提出了基线校正的一般步骤,对比分析了在合理分界时间点范围内选择不同组时间分界点进行基线校正后各组记录之间的地震动参数和反应谱特性.结果表明,已有的各种基线校正方法并不能较好地得到准确的确定性基线校正结果,满足基线校正的一般原则也会得到不同的校正结果,但是合理地进行基线校正后,对加速度和速度时程相关的地震动参数和小同形式的反应谱特性的影响很小.     

Risk factors contributing to motor vehicle collisions in an environment of uncertainty

The concepts of medical geography provide a framework for investigating the importance of people–place interactions in risk analysis and assessing the roles of individual, behavioral, and environmental risk factors. Analyses of data on motor vehicle collisions in Connecticut in 1995 and 1996 are used to illustrate geographical variations in the characteristics of collisions. A method is presented for identifying high frequency collision sites for particular collision types. Proportions and odds ratios calculated as local statistics are used to highlight sites where the individual, behavioral, or environmental characteristics of collisions differ significantly from those in the state as a whole. These differences have implications for developing better statistical models for knowledge synthesis and policy development.     

Response uncertainty and time-variant reliability analysis for hysteretic MDF structures

Response uncertainty evaluation and dynamic reliability analysis corresponding to classical stochastic dynamic analysis are usually restricted to the uncertainties of the excitation. The inclusion of the parameter uncertainties contained in structural properties and excitation characteristics has become an increasingly important problem in many areas of dynamics. In the present paper, a point estimate procedure is proposed for the evaluation of stochastic response uncertainty, and a response surface approach procedure in standard normal space is proposed for analysis of time-variant reliability analysis for hysteretic MDF structures having parameter uncertainties. Using the proposed procedures, the response uncertainties and time-variant reliability can be easily obtained by several repetitions of stochastic response analysis under given parameters without conducting sensitivity analysis, which is considered to be one of the primary difficulties associated with conventional methods. In the time-variant reliability analysis, the failure probability can be readily obtained by improving the accuracy of the first-order reliability method using the empirical second-order reliability index. The random variables are divided into two groups, those with CDF and those without CDF. The latter are included via the high-order moment standardization technique. A numerical example of a 15F hysteretic MDF structure that takes into account uncertainties of four structural parameters and three excitation characteristics is performed, based on which the proposed procedures are investigated and the effects of parameter uncertainties are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A refined seismic analysis and design of buried pipeline for fault movement

Some lifelines, such as gas and oil transmission lines and water and sewer pipelines, have been damaged in recent earthquakes. The damages of these lifelines may cause major, catastrophic disruption of essential services for human needs. Large abrupt differential ground movements that result from an active fault present one of the most severe effects of an earthquake on a buried pipeline system. Although simplified analysis procedures for buried pipelines across strike-slip fault zones that cause tensile failure of the pipeline have been proposed, the results are not accurate enough because of several assumptions involved, such as the omission of flexural rigidity of the pipe, simplification of soil resistant characteristics, etc. Note that the omission of flexural rigidity cannot satisfy equilibrium conditions for pipelines across a ‘reverse’ strike-slip fault that causes compressions in the pipeline. This paper presents a refined analysis procedure for buried pipelines that is applicable to both strike-slip and reverse strikeslip faults after modifying some of the assumptions used previously. Based on the analytical results, this paper also discusses the design criteria for buried pipelines which are subjected to various fault movements. Parametric responses of buried pipeline for various fault movements, angles of crossing, buried depths and pipe diameters are presented.     

Optimization and uncertainty analysis of operational policies for multipurpose reservoir system

This paper presents optimization and uncertainty analysis of operation policies for Hirakud reservoir system in Orissa state, India. The Hirakud reservoir project serves multiple purposes such as flood control, irrigation and power generation in that order of priority. A 10-daily reservoir operation model is formulated to maximize annual hydropower production subjected to satisfying flood control restrictions, irrigation requirements, and various other physical and technical constraints. The reservoir operational model is solved by using elitist-mutated particle swarm optimization (EMPSO) method, and the uncertainty in release decisions and end-storages are analyzed. On comparing the annual hydropower production obtained by EMPSO method with historical annual hydropower, it is found that there is a greater chance of improving the system performance by optimally operating the reservoir system. The analysis also reveals that the inflow into reservoir is highly uncertain variable, which significantly influences the operational decisions for reservoir system. Hence, in order to account uncertainty in inflow, the reservoir operation model is solved for different exceedance probabilities of inflows. The uncertainty in inflows is represented through probability distributions such as normal, lognormal, exponential and generalized extreme value distributions; and the best fit model is selected to obtain inflows for different exceedance probabilities. Then the reservoir operation model is solved using EMPSO method to arrive at suitable operational policies corresponding to various inflow scenarios. The results show that the amount of annual hydropower generated decreases as the value of inflow exceedance probability increases. The obtained operational polices provides confidence in release decisions, therefore these could be useful for reservoir operation.