Probabilistic permanent fault displacement hazard via Monte Carlo simulation and its consideration for the probabilistic risk assessment of buried continuous steel pipelines

Permanent fault displacements (PFDs) because of fault ruptures emerging at the surface are critical for seismic design and risk assessment of continuous pipelines. They impose significant compressive and tensile strains to the pipe cross‐section at pipe‐fault crossings. The complexity of fault rupture, inaccurate mapping of fault location and uncertainties in fault‐pipe crossing geometries require probabilistic approaches for assessing the PFD hazard and mitigating pipeline failure risk against PFD. However, the probabilistic approaches are currently waived in seismic design of pipelines. Bearing on these facts, this paper first assesses the probabilistic PFD hazard by using Monte Carlo‐based stochastic simulations whose theory and implementation are given in detail. The computed hazard is then used in the probabilistic risk assessment approach to calculate the failure probability of continuous pipelines under different PFD levels as well as pipe cross‐section properties. Our probabilistic pipeline risk computations consider uncertainties arising from complex fault rupture and geomorphology that result in inaccurate mapping of fault location and fault‐pipe crossings. The results presented in this paper suggest the re‐evaluation of design provisions in current pipeline design guidelines to reduce the seismic risk of these geographically distributed structural systems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response of natural gas and water pipelines in the Ji-Ji earthquake

In order to study the damage patterns of natural gas and water pipelines in the Ji-Ji earthquake, a GIS database and analysis procedures were established. Repair statistics was obtained from major natural gas companies and the Taiwan Water Supply Corporation (TWSC), and entered into the system. Then, repair rates (RR) were calculated. Previously, damage was analyzed without considering the corresponding pipeline material and diameters. In this study, new attempts were made to collect more data including those related to the composition of pipelines to provide a more detailed analysis of the relationship between earthquake forces and the resulting damage. Statistical analysis was also conducted to understand the correlation between RR and seismic parameters such as the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and spectrum intensity.     

基于多层次可拓评价法的城市燃气管线风险评价研究

以改进的肯特危险指数评分法对城市燃气管道的危险因素进行识分析,确立了城市燃气管线风险评价指标体系。将传统的可拓学方法改进为多层次可拓评价法,对其中的节域物元、关联度和等级评定程序进行了调整,并建立了相应的准则,对评价对象进行多级综合评价。通过多层次评价,可以获得不同子指标各自的风险等级以及评价对象总体的风险等级。以邯郸市某段燃气管线为例,运用城市燃气管线风险评价模型进行风险评价,得出其多层次风险等级值。通过对比及数据分析,证实了本文方法的可靠性。     

穿越走滑断层海底管道局部屈曲研究及应变响应预测

海洋地震频繁且海底土体环境复杂,当地震导致断层土体发生永久变形后,穿越断层的海底埋地管道也将受迫发生变形。为确定变形后的管道能否正常工作,需根据实际工况对其进行应变响应预测。首先通过有限元计算软件ABAQUS建立管道与走滑断层的三维实体模型,模拟管-土间的接触作用并通过等效边界方法修正模型,得到管道局部屈曲破坏形式及应变分布情况。然后,通过调整有限元模型参数对断层交角、管道工作内压、管道径厚比对管道极限塑性应变的影响进行敏感性分析,定性分析不同敏感性因素对穿越走滑断层海底管道应变响应的影响。最后,在数值模拟数据的基础上通过MATLAB软件利用基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络实现对管道应变响应的精确预测。结果表明:穿越走滑断层管道在发生局部屈曲时,可根据轴向压缩应变突变现象确定管道局部屈曲时对应的断层位移,并且断层交角、管道工作内压和管道径厚比都会对跨断层管道应变响应产生影响。     

地震断层作用下的埋地管道等效分析模型

地震作用下,活动断层附近的埋地管道易发生强度屈服、局部屈曲或整体失稳等形式的破坏,建立准确、高效的埋地管道在断层作用下的计算模型,对管道的抗震设计和震后安全状态评估具有重要的实用价值。本文采用非线性弹簧模拟远离断层处埋地管道的反应,基于管土之间小变形段管道处于强化阶段,提出一种改进的管土等效分析模型,进一步减小了管土之间大变形段的分析长度,从而提高了有限元分析效率。该模型采用ALA推荐的方法计算管土间的滑动摩擦力,可以考虑土体种类的影响;用Kennedy方法确定管道的计算长度。通过与精确模型比较,验证了管土等效模型的合理性和有效性。     

Assessment and management of risk in subsurface hydrology: A review and perspective

Uncertainty plagues every effort to model subsurface processes and every decision made on the basis of such models. Given this pervasive uncertainty, virtually all practical problems in hydrogeology can be formulated in terms of (ecologic, monetary, health, regulatory, etc.) risk. This review deals with hydrogeologic applications of recent advances in uncertainty quantification, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and decision-making under uncertainty. The subjects discussed include probabilistic analyses of exposure pathways, PRAs based on fault tree analyses and other systems-based approaches, PDF (probability density functions) methods for propagating parametric uncertainty through a modeling process, computational tools (e.g., random domain decompositions and transition probability based approaches) for quantification of geologic uncertainty, Bayesian algorithms for quantification of model (structural) uncertainty, and computational methods for decision-making under uncertainty (stochastic optimization and decision theory). The review is concluded with a brief discussion of ways to communicate results of uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.     

基于第四代地震区划的跨越发震断层永久位移概率分析方法

本文主要借鉴了Lee(2007)和Youngs(2003)提出的地表永久位移估计方法,联合中国第四代地震区划图的潜在震源区参数,给出了适合中国跨越发震断层永久位移概率分析方法。震害调查表明,近场的结构破坏不仅是地震动引起的,地震地表的破裂或永久位移引起的破坏也占很大比重。应用与概率估计地震动相似的方法,给出不同概率水准的地震地表永久位移,使之服务于穿越地震发震断层管线、桥梁工程的抗震设防,采取有效的抗御永久地表位移措施,减小地震灾害带来的损失。     

Seismic performance sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of gravity dams

Uncertainties in structural engineering are often arising from the modeling assumptions and errors, or from variability in input loadings. A practical approach for dealing with them is to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the framework of stochastic and probabilistic methods. These analyses can be statically and dynamically performed through nonlinear static pushover and IDA techniques, respectively. Of the existing structures, concrete gravity dams are infrastructures which may encounter many uncertainties. In this research, probabilistic analysis of the seismic performance of gravity dams is presented. The main characteristics of the nonlinear tensile behavior of mass concrete, along with the intensity of earthquake excitations are considered as random variables in the probabilistic analysis. Using the tallest non‐overflow monolith of the Pine Flat gravity dam as a case study, its response under static and dynamic situations is reliably examined utilizing different combinations of parameters in the material and the seismic loading. The sensitivity analysis reveals the relative importance of each parameter independently. It will be shown that the undamaged modulus of elasticity and tensile strength of mass concrete have more significant roles on the seismic resistance of the dam than the ultimate inelastic tensile strain. In order to propagate the parametric uncertainty to the actual seismic performance of the dam, probabilistic simulation methods such as Monte Carlo simulation with Latin hypercube sampling, and approximate moment estimation techniques will be used. The final results illustrate the possibility of using a mean‐parameter dam model to estimate the mean seismic performance of the dam. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response evaluation of the impact of corrosion on buried pipelines based on the Markov process

Water distribution and gas supply systems are among the infrastructure systems that have many buried steel pipelines. Corrosion gradually appears inside and outside of the pipe walls over the service life of these pipelines, the corrosion is primarily caused by the surrounding soil and the materials that flow through the pipelines. However, due to the uncertainty of the characteristics of the soil and materials, the size of the corrosion region is a stochastic variable. In this paper, using a homogeneous Markov process, a model is presented to simulate the occurrence of corrosion. Then, in combinations with a linear corrosion development model, the probability density function of the pipeline area corrosion percentage is derived. Based on the corrosion model, the pipeline seismic displacements and stresses are predicted. Furthermore, using the random perturbation approach, the mean and variance of the pipeline seismic response are given. To illustrate the validity of the proposed approach, a 200-meter long pipeline is numerically investigated and its random seismic response is obtained.     

Sensitivity analysis of site effects on response spectra of pipelines

In this paper, a numerical sensitivity analysis of the site effect on dynamic response of pipelines embedded in some idealised soil deposits resting on a halfspace covering a wide range of soil profiles encountered in practice and subjected to vertically propagating shear waves, is presented. The power spectrum of the lateral differential displacement between two distant points due to the site effect is formulated analytically by using an analytical amplification function of a viscoelastic inhomogenous soil profile overlying either a compliant halfspace or a bedrock, represented by a more realistic continuous model. Also, Kanai-Tajimi spectrum parameters are estimated and expressed analytically from the soil profile model. Finally, results in the form of stochastic response spectrum of pipelines, for different key soil and pipeline parameters, are given and discussed.     

Modelling of space weather effects on pipelines

The interaction between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field produces time varying currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The currents cause variations of the geomagnetic field at the surface of the earth and induce an electric field which drives currents in oil and gas pipelines and other long conductors. Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) interfere with electrical surveys of pipelines and possibly contribute to pipeline corrosion.In this paper, we introduce a general method which can be used to determine voltage and current profiles for buried pipelines, when the external geoelectric field and the geometry and electromagnetic properties of the pipeline are known. The method is based on the analogy between pipelines and transmission lines, which makes it possible to use the distributed source transmission line (DSTL) theory. The general equations derived for the current and voltage profiles are applied in special cases. A particular attention is paid to the Finnish natural gas pipeline network.This paper, related to a project about GIC in the Finnish pipeline, thus provides a tool for understanding space weather effects on pipelines. Combined with methods of calculating the geoelectric field during magnetic storms, the results are applicable to forecasting of geomagnetically induced currents and voltages on pipelines in the future.     

Effects of two alternative representations of ground‐motion uncertainty on probabilistic seismic demand assessment of structures

A probabilistic representation of the entire ground‐motion time history can be constructed based on a stochastic model that depends on seismic source parameters. An advanced stochastic simulation scheme known as Subset Simulation can then be used to efficiently compute the small failure probabilities corresponding to structural limit states. Alternatively, the uncertainty in the ground motion can be represented by adopting a parameter (or a vector of parameters) known as the intensity measure (IM) that captures the dominant features of the ground shaking. Structural performance assessment based on this representation can be broken down into two parts, namely, the structure‐specific part requiring performance assessment for a given value of the IM, and the site‐specific part requiring estimation of the likelihood that ground shaking with a given value of the IM takes place. The effect of these two alternative representations of ground‐motion uncertainty on probabilistic structural response is investigated for two hazard cases. In the first case, these two approaches are compared for a scenario earthquake event with a given magnitude and distance. In the second case, they are compared using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to take into account the potential of the surrounding faults to produce events with a range of possible magnitudes and distances. The two approaches are compared on the basis of the probabilistic response of an existing reinforced‐concrete frame structure, which is known to have suffered shear failure in its columns during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake in Los Angeles, California. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mechanical behavior of buried steel pipes crossing active strike-slip faults

The present paper addresses the mechanical behavior of buried steel pipes crossing active strike-slip tectonic faults. The pipeline is assumed to cross the vertical fault plane at angles ranging between zero and 45 degrees. The fault moves in the horizontal direction, causing significant plastic deformation in the pipeline. The investigation is based on numerical simulation of the nonlinear response of the soil–pipeline system through finite elements, accounting for large strains and displacements, inelastic material behavior of the pipeline and the surrounding soil, as well as contact and friction on the soil–pipe interface. Steel pipes with D/t ratio and material grade typical for oil and gas pipelines are considered. The analysis is conducted through an incremental application of fault displacement. Appropriate performance criteria of the steel pipeline are defined and monitored throughout the analysis. The effects of various soil and line pipe parameters on the mechanical response of the pipeline are examined. The numerical results determine the fault displacement at which the specified performance criteria are reached, and are presented in diagram form, with respect to the crossing angle. The effects of internal pressure on pipeline performance are also investigated. In an attempt to explain the structural behavior of the pipeline with respect to local buckling, a simplified analytical model is also developed that illustrates the counteracting effects of pipeline bending and axial stretching for different crossing angles. The results from the present study can be used for the development of performance-based design methodologies for buried steel pipelines.     

Centrifuge modeling of buried continuous pipelines subjected to normal faulting

Seismic ground faulting is the greatest hazard for continuous buried pipelines.Over the years,researchers have attempted to understand pipeline behavior mostly via numerical modeling such as the finite element method.The lack of well-documented field case histories of pipeline failure from seismic ground faulting and the cost and complicated facilities needed for full-scale experimental simulation mean that a centrifuge-based method to determine the behavior of pipelines subjected to faulting is best to verify numerical approaches.This paper presents results from three centrifuge tests designed to investigate continuous buried steel pipeline behavior subjected to normal faulting.The experimental setup and procedure are described and the recorded axial and bending strains induced in a pipeline are presented and compared to those obtained via analytical methods.The influence of factors such as faulting offset,burial depth and pipe diameter on the axial and bending strains of pipes and on ground soil failure and pipeline deformation patterns are also investigated.Finally,the tensile rupture of a pipeline due to normal faulting is investigated.     

Dealing with uncertainty in risk assessments in early stages of a CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> geological storage project: comparison of pure-probabilistic and fuzzy-probabilistic frameworks

CO₂ capture and storage is recognized as a promising solution among others to tackle greenhouse gas emissions. This technology requires robust risk assessment and management from the early stages of the project (i.e. during the site selection phase, prior to injection), which is a challenging task due to the high level of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. This paper aims at implementing and comparing two frameworks for dealing with uncertainties: a classical probabilistic framework and a probabilistic-fuzzy-based (i.e. jointly combining fuzzy sets and probabilities) one. The comparison of both frameworks is illustrated for assessing the risk related to leakage of brine through an abandoned well on a realistic site in the Paris basin (France). For brine leakage flow computation, a semi-analytical model, requiring 25 input parameters, is used. Depending on the framework, available data is represented in a different manner (either using classical probability laws or interval-valued tools). Though the fuzzy-probabilistic framework for uncertainty propagation is computationally more expensive, it presents the major advantage to highlight situations of high degree of epistemic uncertainty: this enables nuancing a too-optimistic decision-making only supported by a single probabilistic curve (i.e. using the Monte-Carlo results). On this basis, we demonstrate how fuzzy-based sensitivity analysis can help identifying how to reduce the imprecision in an effective way, which has useful applications for additional studies. This study highlights the importance of choices in the mathematical tools for representing the lack of knowledge especially in the early phases of the project, where data is scarce, incomplete and imprecise.     

A refined seismic analysis and design of buried pipeline for fault movement

Some lifelines, such as gas and oil transmission lines and water and sewer pipelines, have been damaged in recent earthquakes. The damages of these lifelines may cause major, catastrophic disruption of essential services for human needs. Large abrupt differential ground movements that result from an active fault present one of the most severe effects of an earthquake on a buried pipeline system. Although simplified analysis procedures for buried pipelines across strike-slip fault zones that cause tensile failure of the pipeline have been proposed, the results are not accurate enough because of several assumptions involved, such as the omission of flexural rigidity of the pipe, simplification of soil resistant characteristics, etc. Note that the omission of flexural rigidity cannot satisfy equilibrium conditions for pipelines across a ‘reverse’ strike-slip fault that causes compressions in the pipeline. This paper presents a refined analysis procedure for buried pipelines that is applicable to both strike-slip and reverse strikeslip faults after modifying some of the assumptions used previously. Based on the analytical results, this paper also discusses the design criteria for buried pipelines which are subjected to various fault movements. Parametric responses of buried pipeline for various fault movements, angles of crossing, buried depths and pipe diameters are presented.     

部分饱和砂岩储层地震物理模拟及含气饱和度预测分析

含气饱和度预测是天然气储层地震解释工作的重要目标.本文将岩石物理分析与地震物理模拟技术相结合,构建了部分;饱和砂岩储层物理模型并进行含气饱和度预测分析.物理模型中设置了高孔渗常规砂岩和低孑孔渗致密砂岩两种模拟储层,每种储层都是由具有不同含水饱和度的气-水双相饱和砂体组成.岩石物理分析结果显示在低孔渗致密砂岩中气-水混合流体更加倾向于非均匀的斑块分布,而结合了Brie等效流体公式的Gassmann流体替换理论可以更准确地描述纵波速度随含水饱和度的变化趋势.对物理模型进行地震资料采集处理后,对比了AVO特征和叠前同步反演结果对两种砂岩储层含气饱和度预测能力的差异.AVO特征结果显示,对于混合流体均匀分布的高孔渗砂岩储层,AVO响应曲线和属性变化很难对含气饱和度进行估算;对于混合流体斑块分布的致密砂岩储层,AVO特征可以定性地分辨出储层是否为高、中、低含气情况.反演结果显示,密度及纵横波速度比分别对高孔渗及致密砂岩储层的含气饱和度有着较好的指示能力.     

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.     

Uncertainty Analysis and Expert Judgment in Seismic Hazard Analysis

The large uncertainty associated with the prediction of future earthquakes is usually regarded as the main reason for increased hazard estimates which have resulted from some recent large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis studies (e.g. the PEGASOS study in Switzerland and the Yucca Mountain study in the USA). It is frequently overlooked that such increased hazard estimates are characteristic for a single specific method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): the traditional (Cornell?CMcGuire) PSHA method which has found its highest level of sophistication in the SSHAC probability method. Based on a review of the SSHAC probability model and its application in the PEGASOS project, it is shown that the surprising results of recent PSHA studies can be explained to a large extent by the uncertainty model used in traditional PSHA, which deviates from the state of the art in mathematics and risk analysis. This uncertainty model, the Ang?CTang uncertainty model, mixes concepts of decision theory with probabilistic hazard assessment methods leading to an overestimation of uncertainty in comparison to empirical evidence. Although expert knowledge can be a valuable source of scientific information, its incorporation into the SSHAC probability method does not resolve the issue of inflating uncertainties in PSHA results. Other, more data driven, PSHA approaches in use in some European countries are less vulnerable to this effect. The most valuable alternative to traditional PSHA is the direct probabilistic scenario-based approach, which is closely linked with emerging neo-deterministic methods based on waveform modelling.     

A simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures

A versatile, simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures is discussed in this work. A probabilistic foundation is used to address the various sources of uncertainties, either excitation or structural, and to characterize seismic risk. This risk is given, in this stochastic setting, by some statistics of the system response over the adopted probability models and stochastic simulation is implemented for its evaluation. An efficient, sampling‐based approach is also introduced for establishing a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to identify the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters in affecting the overall risk. This framework facilitates use of complex models for the structural system and the excitation. The adopted structural model explicitly addresses nonlinear characteristics of the isolators and of any supplemental dampers, and the effect of seismic pounding of the base to the surrounding retaining walls. An efficient stochastic ground motion model is also discussed for characterizing future near‐fault ground motions and relating them to the seismic hazard for the structural site. An illustrative example is presented that emphasizes the results from the novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis and their dependence on seismic pounding occurrences and on addition of supplemental dampers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.